Reference case

Table A8.Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions

Table A8. (billion

Electricity
supply, unless
disposition,
prices,
and emissions
kilowatthours,
otherwise
noted)
(billion kilowatthours, unless otherwise noted)
Reference case
Supply, disposition, prices, and emissions
2012

2013

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

1,478
18
1,000
769
2
458
0
3,726

1,550
22
894
789
3
483
0
3,741

1,670
14
867
804
3
620
1
3,978

1,685
15
954
808
3
648
1
4,113

1,674
14
1,073
808
3
679
1
4,252

1,665
14
1,143
812
3
733
2
4,372

1,663
15
1,198
833
3
805
2
4,518

0.3%
-1.6%
1.1%
0.2%
-0.1%
1.9%
-0.7%

22
2
132
5
164
3,890
13

22
2
126
5
158
3,899
13

26
1
133
6
166
4,144
14

26
1
133
7
167
4,280
14

26
1
134
7
168
4,420
14

26
1
134
7
168
4,540
14

26
1
133
8
167
4,686
14

0.5%
-4.0%
0.2%
1.7%
0.2%
0.7%
0.2%

Net available to the grid ......................................

3,877

3,886

4,131

4,267

4,406

4,527

4,672

0.7%

End-use sector7
Coal ....................................................................
Petroleum ...........................................................
Natural gas .........................................................
Other gaseous fuels8 ..........................................
Renewable sources9 ...........................................
Other10 ................................................................
Total end-use sector net generation ............
Less direct use....................................................
Total sales to the grid ....................................

13
3
95
11
39
3
164
126
38

13
3
98
11
42
3
171
132
39

13
3
116
19
53
3
207
167
40

13
3
134
19
60
3
233
190
43

13
3
163
19
70
3
271
225
46

13
3
199
19
82
3
320
269
51

13
3
235
19
97
3
370
313
56

0.0%
-0.4%
3.3%
2.1%
3.1%
0.0%
2.9%
3.3%
1.4%

Total net electricity generation by fuel

Coal ....................................................................
Petroleum ...........................................................
Natural gas .........................................................
Nuclear power.....................................................
Renewable sources5,9 .........................................
Other11 ................................................................
Total net electricity generation .....................
Net generation to the grid ...................................

1,514
23
1,228
769
501
19
4,055
3,916

1,586
27
1,118
789
530
20
4,070
3,925

1,709
18
1,117
804
679
25
4,351
4,171

1,724
18
1,223
808
716
25
4,513
4,309

1,713
18
1,371
808
756
25
4,691
4,453

1,704
18
1,478
812
823
25
4,860
4,578

1,702
18
1,569
833
909
25
5,056
4,729

0.3%
-1.6%
1.3%
0.2%
2.0%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%

Net imports ..............................................................

47

52

33

35

30

26

32

-1.8%

Electricity sales by sector

Residential .............................................................
Commercial............................................................
Industrial ................................................................
Transportation........................................................
Total ....................................................................
Direct use ..............................................................
Total electricity use ...........................................

1,375
1,327
986
7
3,695
139
3,834

1,391
1,338
955
7
3,691
145
3,836

1,423
1,413
1,096
9
3,941
180
4,121

1,441
1,461
1,166
10
4,078
204
4,282

1,488
1,522
1,183
12
4,205
239
4,444

1,533
1,583
1,188
15
4,319
283
4,602

1,587
1,659
1,206
18
4,470
327
4,797

0.5%
0.8%
0.9%
3.4%
0.7%
3.1%
0.8%

Net generation by fuel type

Electric power sector1
Power only2
Coal ..................................................................
Petroleum .........................................................
Natural gas3 ......................................................
Nuclear power...................................................
Pumped storage/other4 .....................................
Renewable sources5 .........................................
Distributed generation (natural gas)..................
Total ..............................................................
Combined heat and power6
Coal ..................................................................
Petroleum .........................................................
Natural gas .......................................................
Renewable sources ..........................................
Total ..............................................................
Total net electric power sector generation ......
Less direct use.....................................................

A-18

Annual
growth
2013-2040
(percent)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2015

Reference case

Table A8.Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions (continued)

Table A8. (billion

Electricity
supply, unless
disposition,
prices,
and emissions (continued)
kilowatthours,
otherwise
noted)
(billion kilowatthours, unless otherwise noted)
Reference case
Supply, disposition, prices, and emissions
2012
End-use prices
(2013 cents per kilowatthour)
Residential .............................................................
Commercial............................................................
Industrial ................................................................
Transportation........................................................
All sectors average ............................................
(nominal cents per kilowatthour)
Residential .............................................................
Commercial............................................................
Industrial ................................................................
Transportation........................................................
All sectors average ............................................
Prices by service category
(2013 cents per kilowatthour)
Generation .............................................................
Transmission .........................................................
Distribution .............................................................
(nominal cents per kilowatthour)
Generation .............................................................
Transmission .........................................................
Distribution .............................................................
Electric power sector emissions1
Sulfur dioxide (million short tons) ...........................
Nitrogen oxide (million short tons) .........................
Mercury (short tons)...............................................

2013

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Annual
growth
2013-2040
(percent)

12.1
10.2
6.8
9.5
10.0

12.2
10.1
6.9
9.7
10.1

12.9
10.6
7.3
10.3
10.5

13.5
11.1
7.6
11.0
11.0

13.6
11.1
7.7
11.2
11.1

13.9
11.3
7.9
11.6
11.3

14.5
11.8
8.4
12.3
11.8

0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%

11.9
10.1
6.7
9.3
9.8

12.2
10.1
6.9
9.7
10.1

14.6
12.0
8.2
11.7
11.9

16.6
13.6
9.4
13.6
13.5

18.3
14.9
10.3
15.0
14.8

20.5
16.6
11.7
17.0
16.6

23.5
19.1
13.6
19.9
19.2

2.5%
2.4%
2.6%
2.7%
2.4%

6.5
0.9
2.5

6.6
0.9
2.6

6.6
1.1
2.8

7.0
1.2
2.9

7.0
1.2
2.9

7.1
1.2
3.0

7.6
1.3
3.0

0.5%
1.2%
0.6%

6.4
0.9
2.5

6.6
0.9
2.6

7.5
1.2
3.2

8.6
1.4
3.6

9.3
1.6
3.9

10.5
1.8
4.4

12.3
2.1
4.9

2.3%
3.0%
2.4%

3.43
1.68
26.69

3.27
1.69
27.94

1.42
1.57
6.58

1.44
1.57
6.53

1.44
1.56
6.43

1.47
1.57
6.40

1.53
1.57
6.41

-2.8%
-0.3%
-5.3%

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status.
Includes plants that only produce electricity and that have a regulatory status.
Includes electricity generation from fuel cells.
4
Includes non-biogenic municipal waste. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2013 approximately 7 billion kilowatthours of electricity
were generated from a municipal waste stream containing petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See U.S. Energy Information
Administration, Methodology for Allocating Municipal Solid Waste to Biogenic and Non-Biogenic Energy, (Washington, DC, May 2007).
5
Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, biogenic municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power.
6
Includes combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity and heat to the public (i.e., those that report North American Industry
Classification System code 22 or that have a regulatory status).
7
Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status; and small onsite generating systems in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation, but which may also sell some power to the
grid.
8
Includes refinery gas and still gas.
9
Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, all municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power.
10
Includes batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and miscellaneous technologies.
11
Includes pumped storage, non-biogenic municipal waste, refinery gas, still gas, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and
miscellaneous technologies.
- - = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2012 and 2013 are model results and may differ from official EIA data
reports.
Sources: 2012 and 2013 electric power sector generation; sales to the grid; net imports; electricity sales; and electricity end-use prices: U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2014/11) (Washington, DC, November 2014), and supporting databases. 2012 and
2013 emissions: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Clean Air Markets Database. 2012 and 2013 electricity prices by service category: EIA, AEO2015
National Energy Modeling System run REF2015.D021915A. Projections: EIA, AEO2015 National Energy Modeling System run REF2015.D021915A.
2
3

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2015

A-19