Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
informs
doi 10.1287/trsc.1030.0026
2004 INFORMS
Operations Research and Decision Support, American Airlines, MD 5358, DFW Airport, Texas 75261-9616, manoj.lohatepanont@aa.com
Cynthia Barnhart
Center for Transportation Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, cbarnhart@mit.edu
onstructing a protable schedule is of utmost importance to an airline because its protability is critically
inuenced by its ight offerings. We focus our attention on the steps of the airline schedule planning process
involving schedule design and eet assignment. Airline schedule design involves determining when and where
to offer ights such that prots are maximized, and eet assignment involves assigning aircraft types to ight
legs to maximize revenue and minimize operating cost. We present integrated models and solution algorithms
that simultaneously optimize the selection of ight legs for and the assignment of aircraft types to the selected
ight legs. Preliminary results, based on data from a major U.S. airline, suggest that signicant benets can be
achieved.
Key words: air transportation; airline scheduling; airports; air trafc management; revenue/yield management
History: Received: June 2001; revisions received: March 2002, May 2002; accepted: May 2002.
In scheduled passenger air transportation, airline protability is critically inuenced by the airlines ability to construct ight schedules containing ights at desirable times in protable markets
(dened by origin-destination pairs). To produce
operational schedules, airlines engage in a complex
decision-making process, generally referred to as airline schedule planning. Because it is impossible to
simultaneously represent and solve the entire airline schedule planning problem, the many decisions
required in airline schedule planning have historically
been compartmentalized and optimized in a sequential manner.
The schedule planning step typically begins 12 months
prior to operation of the schedule and lasts approximately 9 months. It begins with route development, in
which the airline decides which city pairs it wants
to serve, based primarily on systemwide demand
information. Most of the time, the schedule planning
step starts from an existing schedule, with a welldeveloped route structure. Changes are introduced to
the existing schedule to reect changing demands and
environment; this is referred to as schedule development.
There are three major components in the schedule
development step.
The rst step of schedule development, schedule
design, is arguably the most complicated step of
all and traditionally has been decomposed into two
sequential steps:
(1) frequency planning, in which planners determine
the appropriate service frequency in a market; and
19
20
1.
21
A
100
150
100
MarketDemand
410
MarketDemand
300
100
190
B
120
100
200
B
100
(a) Allitineraries
operate
(b)Oneitinerary
isdropped
x
Figure 1
(c)Twoitineraries
aredropped
UnconstrainedItineraryDemand
2.
22
2.1. Framework
In developing our integrated models for airline schedule design and eet assignment, we assume our schedule is daily; that is, the schedule repeats everyday.
Because conservation of aircraft, or balance, is always
maintained, we can count the number of aircraft in the
network by taking a snapshot of the network at a prespecied point in time, dened as the count time (for
example, 3:00 a.m.) and counting the number of aircraft both in the air and on the ground at stations.
Our approach to schedule design is incremental;
that is, we do not attempt to build a schedule from
scratch. Instead a number of modications are introduced to a base schedule, that is, a schedule from the
current or previous season. This is, in fact, the practice in the industryplanners build a schedule for the
new season by making changes to the current schedule. There are a few reasons for this:
(1) Building an entirely new schedule requires data
which might or might not be available to the airline;
(2) building an improved new schedule from
scratch is operationally impractical and computationally difcult, if not intractable;
(3) frequently changing network structures require
signicant investment at airport stations (for example,
gates, check-in counters); and
XY101
XY234
XY333
XY444
XY498
XY234
XY444
BOS-ORD10:00am
ORD-DFW11:14am
ORD-SFO08:15am
SFO-DEN09:45am
SEA-SFO10:32am
.
.
ORD-DFW11:14am
SFO-DEN09:45am
.
.
.
BOS-ORD10:00am
ORD-SFO08:15am
SEA-SFO10:32am
.
.
.
(d)Mandatoryflightlist
XY234
XY444
XY777
XY888
XY777
XY888
BOS-ORD11:00am
ORD-DEN09:04am
.
.
.
(c)Listofcandidate
flightsforaddition
ORD-DFW11:14am
SFO-DEN09:45am
BOS-ORD11:00am
ORD-DEN09:04am
.
.
.
(e)Optionalflightlist
XY101
XY234
XY333
XY444
XY498
XY777
XY888
BOS-ORD10:00am
ORD-DFW11:14am
ORD-SFO08:15am
SFO-DEN09:45am
SEA-SFO10:32am
BOS-ORD11:00am
ORD-DEN09:04am
.
.
.
(f)Masterflightlist
Figure 2
(b)Listofcandidate
flightsfordeletion
(a)Baseschedule
XY101
XY333
XY498
Legend:
MandatoryFlight
XY101 BOS-ORD10:00am
OptionalFlight
XY234
ORD-DFW11:14am
(2) new ight legs can be added to the base schedule (Figure 2c).
Flights identied in Figures 2(b) and 2(c) comprise
the optional ight list (Figure 2e). The mandatory list
contains those ight legs in the base schedule not
marked as optional (Figure 2d). The master ight list
(Figure 2f) is the combination of the mandatory and
optional ight lists. A master ight list must be prepared by planners for input to our integrated models.
Apart from a master ight list, another crucial
input is the average unconstrained itinerary demands
associated with operating all of the ights in the
master ight list. We estimate these demands for a
given schedule using a schedule evaluation model. There
are several schedule evaluation models used in the
industry, for example, the Sabre Airline Protability
Model, and United Airlines Protability Forecasting
Model. Details of these models, however, are often
difcult to obtain due to their proprietary nature.
The output of our models is a list of recommended
ight legs to include in a new schedule and an associated eet assignment.
Our models integrate the schedule design and
eet assignment steps in the schedule development subprocess. Notice, also, that we depart from
the traditional approach of sequentially performing
frequency planning and timetable development. In
our approach, market service frequency, departure
times (given a prespecied list of candidate ight
departures), and eet assignments are all determined
simultaneously.
2.2.
Underlying Assumptions
23
of the airlines network capacity. All of the observed
demand data, however, is constrained demand, reecting network capacity. Hence, in practice, the demand
distribution for each leg is truncated at the capacity of the eet type assigned to that leg. Therefore,
using assumptions about demand distributions, these
observed data must be unconstrained.
(4) Demand Recapture: Recapture occurs when passengers spilled from their desired itineraries are
accommodated on alternate itineraries in the system.
Most eet assignment models ignore recapture, partly
because it is difcult to observe. In this paper, we
employ the approach described in Barnhart et al.
(2001) to model recapture in the eeting process.
(5) Flight-Leg Independence: Most eet assignment
models assume ight-leg independence, that is, that
demand on one leg is independent of all other legs
and moreover, that ight revenue is leg specic.
A signicant proportion of passengers, especially in
the U.S., travel on multileg itineraries, thus creating ight-leg interdependencies. These interdependencies introduce revenue estimation errors in the
eet assignment models assuming leg independence.
Barnhart et al. (2001) discuss this assumption and
its ramications and provide quantitative evidence
that eet assignment models assuming independence
miss an important aspect of the eet assignment problem. To capture ight-leg interdependencies, or network effects, they introduce an itinerary-based eet
assignment approach, which we use in our integrated
schedule planning models.
Barnhart et al. (2001) test the effects of several of
the above assumptions using their itinerary-based eet
assignment model (IFAM). They show that using average demand data, ignoring the associated uncertainty
(or distribution), and accounting for network effects,
IFAM produces better assignments than the basic (legbased) eet assignment models. Their experiments
also show that IFAM produces relatively consistent
eetings over a limited range of recapture values.
Hence, IFAM is the core around which we build the
integrated schedule planning model presented in this
paper.
2.3. Notation
To facilitate the discussion of our integrated model,
we rst list all notation in this section.
Parameters/Data
CAPi : the number of seats available on ight-leg i
(assuming eeted schedule).
SEATSk : the number of seats available on aircraft of
eet type k.
Nk : the number of aircraft in eet-type k.
Nq : the number of ight legs in itinerary q.
Dp : the unconstrained demand for itinerary p, that
is, the number of passengers requesting itinerary p.
24
Qi : the unconstrained demand on leg i when all
itineraries are own.
farep : the fare for itinerary p.
: the carrying cost-adjusted fare for itinerary p.
fare
p
bpr : recapture rate from p to r; the fraction of passengers spilled from itinerary p that the airline succeeds
in redirecting
to itinerary r.
1 if itinerary p includes ight leg i
p
i =
0 otherwise
p
Dq : demand correction term for itinerary p as a
result of cancelling itinerary q.
Sets
P : the set of itineraries in a market including the
null itinerary, indexed by p or r.
P O : the set of itineraries containing optional ight
legs, indexed by q.
A: the set of airports, or stations, indexed by o.
L: the set of ight legs in the ight schedule,
indexed by i.
LF : the set of mandatory ights, indexed by i.
LO : the set of optional ights, indexed by i.
K: the set of eet types, indexed by k.
T : the sorted set of all event (departure or availability) times at all airports, indexed by tj . The event at
time tj occurs before the event at time tj+1 . Suppose
T = m; then t1 is the time associated with the rst
event after the count time and tm is the time associated with the last event before the next count time.
N : the set of nodes in the timeline network indexed
by k o tj .
CLk: the set of ight legs that pass the count time
when own by eet-type k.
Ik o t: the set of inbound ight legs to node
k o tj .
Ok o t: the set of outbound ight legs from node
k o tj .
Lq: the set of ight legs in itinerary q.
Decision Variables
tpr : the number of passengers requesting itinerary p
that the airline
attempts to redirect to itinerary r.
1 if ight leg i is assigned to eet type k
fk i =
0 otherwise
0 otherwise
yk o tj+ : the number of eet-type k aircraft that are
on the ground at airport o immediately after time tj .
yk o tj : the number of eet-type k aircraft that are
on the ground at airport o immediately before time
tj . If t1 and t2 are the times associated with adjacent
events, then yk o t1+ = yk o t2 .
3.
100
150
100
100
150+40
100+20
100
150+40+40
B
B
100
(a) Allitineraries
operate
(b)Oneoptional
itineraryis
dropped
MandatoryItineraries
x
Figure 3
(c)Twooptional
itinerariesare
dropped
OptionalItineraries
UnconstrainedItineraryDemand
25
2
term, D3
4 = 30, is needed to adjust the demand
on the second itinerary when both the third and
fourth itineraries are deleted. In general, nth degree
correction terms might be needed to correct demand
exactly when n optional itineraries are deleted simultaneously from a market. In our current implementation, however, these higher-order correction terms are
omitted for tractability.
In our ISD-FAM formulation, demand correction
p
terms, Dq p P are applied only if itinerary q is
deleted from the ight network. Zq , the itinerary status
variable, indicates whether or not itinerary q is operated, with Zq equal to one if itinerary q is operated
and zero otherwise. Notice that itinerary q is operated
only when all ight legs contained in q are operated.
fareq Dq
farep Dqp 1 Zq (2)
R =
qP O
pP p=q
(3)
pP rP
Equations (3) and (4) measure the changes in revenue due to spill and recapture, respectively. Recall
that spill occurs when passengers cannot be accommodated on their desired itineraries due to insufcient capacity. Some of these passengers are redirected
to alternate itineraries within the airline network.
Recapture occurs when some number of these redirected passengers are accommodated on alternate
itineraries of that airline. In our work, the recapture
rate bpr , the successful rate of redirecting passengers to itinerary r when itinerary p is capacitated,
is computed based on the Quality of Service Index
(QSI ) (Kniker 1998). QSI is an industry measure of the
attractiveness of an itinerary relative to that of all
other itineraries (including competing airlines) in that
market. The sum of the QSI values corresponding to
all itineraries (including competitors) in a market is
equal to one. The sum of the QSI for one airline is an
approximate measure of its market share for that specic market. Let qp denote the QSI value of itinerary p.
in marLet Qm represent the sum of all QSI values
ket m for the particular airline; that is, Qm = pm qp .
Then, the recapture rate, bpr is
10
if p = r
qr
(5)
bpr =
otherwise
1 Qm + qr
This recapture rate is a measure of the probability
that a passenger spilled from itinerary p will accept
itinerary r as an alternative. (For more details, see
Barnhart et al. 2001.)
Mathematically, tpr is the number of passengers
being redirected from itinerary p to itinerary r and
bpr tpr is the number of passengers who are recaptured
from itinerary p onto itinerary r. We denote tp as spill
from itinerary p to a null itinerary and assign its associated recapture rate, bp , a value of one. Passengers
spilled from itinerary p onto a null itinerary are not
recaptured on any other itinerary of the airline and
are lost to the airline.
The contribution maximizing objective function of
ISD-FAM is therefore
Max R R S + M O
(6)
(7)
26
3.3. Formulation
ISD-FAM can be formulated as shown in (8)(20):
b r fare
t r
Min
Ck i fk i +
fare
p
p
r p
iL kK
pP rP
D
fare
q q
qP O
subject to
kK
kK
yk o t +
oA
pP qP O
pP p=q
(9)
i LO
(10)
fk i 1
iIk o t
fk i yk o t+
yk o tn +
qP O
Qi
Zq
kK
iLq kK
fk i = 0
kK
k K
CAPk fk i +
rP pP
i L
Dqp 1 Zq +
Zq
iOk o t
fk i Nk
iCLk
p
i brp trp
k o t N
i Dqp 1 Zq +
rP pP
(8)
fk i = 1 i LF
Dp 1 Z
fare
q
q
p
rP
tpr Dp
p P
q P O
fk i 1 Nq
k K i L
Zq 0 1
yk o t 0
tpr 0
(12)
p
i tpr
(13)
fk i 0 i Lq
fk i 0 1
(11)
(14)
(15)
(16)
(17)
q P
(18)
k o t N
(19)
p r P
(20)
Constraints (9), the cover constraints for mandatory ights, ensure that every mandatory ight is
assigned to a eet type. Constraints (10) are cover
constraints for optional ights allowing the model to
choose whether or not to y ight i in the schedule.
If ight i is selected, a eet type has to be assigned
START
(1)
SolveISD-FAM
(SeeFigure5)
(2)
Calculatenewdemandforthe
resultingschedule
(6)
Revise
demandcorrectionterms
(3)
SolvePMMwithdemandfrom
(2)andschedulefrom(1)
(5)
Identifyitinerarieswith
inaccuraterevenue
estimatesin(1)
(4)
Hasthe
STOPPING
CRITERIA
beenmet
?
NO
YES
STOP
Figure 4
27
revenue (the underlying assumptions do not always
hold). In Step 4, we compute:
(1) the difference between our current and previous
solution and
(2) the closeness of the revenue estimates of Steps 1
and 3.
If either of these computed values are beneath
our dened threshold values, the algorithm is terminated; otherwise itineraries with inaccurate revenue
estimates in the ISD-FAM solution are identied in
Step 5 and their associated demand correction terms
are updated (in Step 6) using the demand information
obtained from solving the schedule evaluation model
in Step 2. ISD-FAM is then resolved and the procedure
repeats.
At every iteration, however, existing demand correction terms are updated and/or new ones are introduced, hence, capturing more exactly demand and
supply interactions. Thus, if higher-order correction
terms are included, the algorithm will converge in a
nite number of iterations. This, however, can take
many iterations if the models solution is highly
sensitive to the values of the demand correction
terms.
3.4.1. Solution Algorithm for ISD-FAM. The algorithm for solving ISD-FAM is depicted in Figure 5.
We rst construct a restricted master problem (RMP)
excluding constraints (14) and including only spill
variables corresponding to null itineraries. Then, the
LP relaxation of the RMP is solved using column and
row generation. Negative reduced-cost columns corresponding to spill variables and violated constraints
(14) are added to the RMP, and the RMP is resolved
until the ISD-FAM LP relaxation is solved. Given the
solution to the ISD-FAM LP relaxation, branch-andbound is invoked to nd an integer solution. Because
column generation at nodes within the branch-andbound tree is nontrivial to implement using available
optimization software, we employ a heuristic IP solution approach in which branch-and-bound allows column and row generation only at the root node and
after the integer solution is found. Row (and column)
generation occurs after an integer solution is obtained
if any constraints are violated by the current solution.
In this case, column and row generation allows the
best passenger ow decisions to be determined, for
the selected ight schedule and eeting.
3.5. Computational Results
We perform computational tests for ISD-FAM as outlined in Figure 6. Using a Period I schedule as our
base schedule, planners provide a master ight list
including both mandatory and optional ight legs.
Using this master ight list, planners generate a proposed schedule for Period II, the planners schedule,
28
Step1
BuildRestricted
MasterProblem
Step5
Branch&
Bound
Step2
SolveRMPLP
Step6
FixIntegerVariables
Step3
ViolatedCon.Gen.
Step7
SolveLP
Step4
ColumnGeneration
Step8
Col./RowGeneration
Were
anyrowsor
columns
added
?
ISD-FAM
LPRelaxation
Yes
No
ISD-FAM
IP
Were
anyrowsor Yes
columns
added
?
ISD-FAM
No
Feasibility
DONE
Figure 5
The ISD-FAM Solution Algorithm (Step 1 in Figure 4) for Specied Demand Correction Terms
which is compared to the ISD-FAM-generated schedule. A schedule evaluation model is used to generate
a new set of demands for both the planners schedule
and the ISD-FAM-generated schedule. The PMM is
then solved to obtain PMM revenues for the Period II
schedules. Finally, PMM contributions are computed
by subtracting operating costs from PMM revenues.
In most cases, PMM contributions for an ISD-FAMgenerated schedule differs from the ISD-FAM objective function value, called ISD-FAM contribution. The
difference between PMM and ISD-FAM contributions
for a schedule measures the revenue discrepancy resulting from using demand estimates based on a ight
schedule that does not match the resulting ISD-FAM
ight schedule.
We perform our experiments on actual data, including the planners schedules, provided by a major U.S.
airline. Table 1 shows the characteristics of the networks in our two data sets. All runs are performed
on an HP C-3000 workstation computer with two
GB RAM, running CPLEX 6.5.
Tables 2 and 3 show the problem sizes and ISDFAM run-times, and solution results for data sets
D1 and D2, respectively. For data set D1, ISDFAM generates a considerably improved schedule
compared to the planners schedules, achieving an
increase in the daily contribution of $561,776. Assuming that unconstrained demand is an average of daily
29
Table 3
PeriodI
Schedule
Contribution Comparison
ISD-FAM Schedule
Planners'input
Planners Schedule
($/day)
($/day)
N/A
1,159,828
N/A
1,908,867
1,721,604
187,263
MasterFlightList
Planners
ISD-FAM
PeriodII
Schedule
PeriodII
Schedule
Schedule
Evaluation
Model
Schedule
Evaluation
Model
PeriodII
Demand
PeriodII
Demand
PassengerMix
Model
PassengerMix
Model
PMM
Contribution
PMM
Contribution
Planners'Schedule
ISD-FAMSchedule
Figure 6
4.
Data Set D1
ISD-FAM contribution
PMM contribution
Revenue discrepancy
ISD-FAM
Contribution
Revenue
Discrepancy
4.1.
Data Characteristics
Data Set
Mand.
Opt.
Total
No. of
Itineraries
No. of
Fleets
No. of
Aircraft
645
588
108
260
753
848
60,347
67,805
4
4
166
166
D1
D2
Table 2
Planners Schedule
Data Set D1
717
0
166
0
668
85
157
9
bpt p =30
No. of columns
No. of rows
No. of nonzeros
No. of iterations to solve LP relaxation
LP relaxation solution time
Solution time
561,776
Testing Methodology
Table 4
Daily
Improvement
i:70extra
passengers
Data Set D1
Data Set D2
48,742
30,206
164,676
34
11.1 hrs
12.7 hrs
65,447
60,910
344,517
46
66 hrs
3+ days
A bipr t rp =20
j:20seats
available
NetLost:
20+30passengers
Figure 7
30
iL kK
Ck i fk i +
subject to
kK
kK
yk o t +
oA
fk i 1 i LO
(23)
rP pP
iCLk
fk i Nk
rP pP
p p
Dp
fk i 0 1
fk i = 0
k K
(24)
(25)
i tpr
i br trp Qi
tpr
iOk o t
k o t N
rP
fk i yk o t+
CAPk fk i +
(21)
(22)
yk o tn +
t r
br fare
fare
p
p
r p
i LF
iIk o t
kK
pP rP
fk i = 1
i L
(26)
p P
(27)
k K i L
(28)
yk o t 0 k o t N
(29)
tpr 0 p r P
(30)
Table 5
No. of columns
No. of rows
No. of nonzeros
No. of iterations to solve LP relaxation
LP relaxation solution time
Solution time
Data Set D1
Data Set D2
35,633
2,999
55,039
31
23 mins
39 mins
38,837
3,326
61,655
28
41 mins
78 mins
31
Table 6
Contribution Comparision
Table 9
Planners
Schedule
Planners Schedule
ASD-FAM Schedule
($/day)
($/day)
Data Set D1
ASD-FAM contribution
PMM contribution
Revenue discrepancy
N/A
1,159,828
N/A
1,999,094
1,742,349
256,745
Data Set D2
ASD-FAM contribution
PMM contribution
Revenue discrepancy
N/A
1,159,828
N/A
2,079,504
1,888,948
190,556
($/day)
Improvement
582,521
Data Set F1
ASD-FAM contribution
PMM contribution
Revenue discrepancy
N/A
36,387,000
N/A
36,932,000
37,375,000
443,000
988,000
729,120
Data Set F2
ASD-FAM contribution
PMM contribution
Revenue discrepancy
N/A
35,668,000
N/A
36,124,000
36,072,000
52,000
404,000
Table 8
Planners
Schedule
Data Set D1
Data Set D2
717
0
166
0
660
93
154
12
614
234
148
18
Data Characteristics
No. of Flight Legs
Data Set
F1
F2
ASD-FAM Schedule
($/day)
Improvement
Table 7
Contribution Comparison
Mand.
Opt.
Total
No. of
Itineraries
No. of
Fleets
No. of
Aircraft
1,993
1,988
1,993
1,988
179,965
180,114
8
8
350
350
Table 10
Data Set F2
Planners
Schedule
ASD-FAM
Planners
Schedule
ASD-FAM
1,619
1,545
1,591
1,557
Table 11
Solution time
Data Set F1
Data Set F2
16 hrs
19 hrs
Appendix.
The passenger mix model (PMM) (Kniker 1998) takes a eeted schedule
(that is, each ight leg is assigned one eet type) and unconstrained
32
b r fare
tr
fare
p
p
p
r
pP rP
(A.1)
subject to
pP rP
i tpr
rP pP
rP
tpr Dp
tpr 0
p P
p r P
i L
(A.2)
(A.3)
(A.4)
pP
i Dp
(A.5)
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