Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
PO. 146
Introduction
Typhoon Simulation
In order to obtain the wind speed during the typhoon period, typhoon
simulation was carried out by using the method proposed by Ishihara et
al. (2005).
In order to obtain the extreme wind speed of 50 year return period, the
extreme wind speed by seasonal wind and typhoon are estimated
separately and combined.
Seasonal wind
( )
Quadratic
function
Minimum distance
Mesoscale Simulation
In this study, a Dynamical Statistical Downscaling procedure (Yamaguchi
et al., 2003) was used in order to estimate the non-typhoon wind climate
and verified using the measured wind speed at Choshi Meteorological
Station.
Global Terrain
Global Terrain
and Landuse
and Landuse
Database
Database
Radius of maximum
2
=2.10, =0.246,
ln x
2ln x
wind speed
k=1.91, c=163, a=0.502
k x k 1
x k
+ (1 a )
exp
=1.58, =0.114,
C C
C
Translation Speed
k=4.22, c=43.7, a=1.00
Normal
Translation
distribution
=144
1
1 x 2
FS (x ) =
exp
Direction
s=26.0
Number of typhoon
per year
( )
Poissons
distribution
x exp ( )
x!
U s = U1 + (1/ a ) ln R
k 1 ln(ln N )
U1 = c(ln N )1/ k 1 + 2
k ln N
N = 2 vu u ( k u / c )
1/ a =
Measurement
Simulation
50
=2.77
The extreme wind
speed by seasonal
wind at Choshi
Meteorological
Station
40
30
20
return period
10
Idealizing
Idealizingand
and
Rearizing
Rearizing
Approach
Approach
-2
20
50 100 200
2 -ln(-ln(F)) 4
Detailed
Detailed
Wind
WindClimate
Climate
atatthe
theSite
Site
60
Simulation
Measurement
Microscale
MicroscaleWind
Wind
Prediction
PredictionModel
Model
(MASCOT)
(MASCOT)
Mesoscale Model
wind speed(m/s)
50
40
30
20
10
10
20
50 100 200
0
-2
-ln(-ln(F))
The combination
The total extreme wind speed of 50 year return period was calculated so
that the following equation is satisfied.
0km
200km
0km
200km
Microscale Model
-1
-2
10
Verification
The mesocale and the microscale simulation was verified using the
measurement data at Choshi Meteorological Station..
10-3
The combined
extreme wind
speed at Choshi
Meteorological
Station
10-4
10-5
10-6
10
15
20
25
Wind speed (m/s)
30
35
20
Return period
10
10
20
50 100 200
0
-2
2 -ln(-ln(F)) 4
Conclusion
100
Typhoon
Measurement
Simulation
10-1
10-2
-3
10
10-4
-5
12
30
40
10
Measurement
Simulation
40
-7
10
20
Measurement
Simulation
50
Measurement
Simulation
10
frequency
60
100
Seasonal wind
frequency
Local
LocalTerrain
Terrain
and
andLanduse
Landuse
Database
Database
10-6
10-7
0
10
15
20
25
wind speed (m/s)
30
35
40
4
0
0.85
Uy
=
Ux
u
u
u
0.85
yi
= 1.066 1.15
xi
6
7
Year 2000
10
uxi u yi
u u
2
xi
2
yi
11
= 0.893 0.8
2
yi
Uy
u
Ux
2
xi
= 0.976 1.15
12
The combination
100
Measurement
Simulation
-1
10
References
-2
10
frequency
10
Typhoon
Global
Global
Analysis data
Analysis data
16
c
k 1 k 1 ln(ln N )
(ln N )1/ k 1 1 +
k
k ln N k ln N
60
-500<dmin<500
0<x<1.0
z=390
Mesoscale Model
Mesoscale Model
(RAMS)
(RAMS)
The extreme wind speed of 50 year return period by seasonal wind was
calculated by the method proposed by Gomes and Vickery (1977), in
which the extreme wind speed can be expressed as a function of the
Weibull parameters of the frequency distribution.
10-3
Gomes, L. and Vickery, B. J. (1977), On the Prediction of extreme wind speeds from
the parent distribution, J. Indust. Aerodyn., 2, 21-36.
10-4
10-5
10-6
-7
10
10
15
20
25
wind speed (m/s)
30
35
40
Ishihara, T., Khoo, K. S., Cheong, C. L. and Fujino, Y. (2005), Wind Field Model and
Mixed Probability Distribution Function for Typhoon Simulation, Proc. APCWE VI.
Yamaguchi, A., Ishihara, T. and Fujino, Y. (2003), A Dynamical Statistical Downscaling
Procedure for Local Wind Climate Assessment, European Wind Energy Conference.
European Offshore Wind 2009 Conference & Exhibition, 14 16 September, Stockholm, Sweden