Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Northwestern University
Did Market Structure Contribute to
the Recent Financial Crisis?
Ravi Mattu
Plausible explanations
Issues with LIBOR
Risky counterparties and impact of default correlations
Market structure? Was the deleveraging in corporate bonds triggered
by the basis?
Flows in the derivative market
U.S. Investment Grade and High Yield Corporate Bond Spreads: Option
Adjusted Spreads Over Treasuriesa
2500
2000
Breakeven
Spreads Implied
by default rates
from 1932-1935
bp/year
1500
OAS (bp)
1236
1000
500
236
0
Jun-89 Jun-91 Jun-93 Jun-95 Jun-97 Jun-99 Jun-01 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09
Investment Grade
High Yield
Breakeven Spreads IG
Breakeven Spreads HY
Source: Barclays Capital, Moodys for default rates in the 1932-1935 period, we assume recovery rates of 20%
and that losses were equally distributed over this time period.
9/12/2008
327
Corp
HY
815
12/16/2008
608
1971
10/8/2009
218
771
Date
Corp IG
Calculate CDS spread for a default swap with maturity matched to the cash
bond by interpolating the par CDS curve.
The Par Priced-Asset Swap Spread represents the Spread over LIBOR that
would equal the risk-free present value of the coupon stream of a cash bond
plus the current difference between par and the price of the bond:
n
i =1
i =1
Average Daily Asset Swap Spread and (BondCDS) Basis: for A-rated Bonds
500
400
Date
bp/year
300
200
100
-100
1/2/2007
7/2/2007
1/2/2008
7/2/2008
1/2/2009
Source: J.P.Morgan
7/2/2009
Par asset
Swap
Spread
(Bond-CDS)
Basis
9/12/2008
244bp
54bp
12/16/2008
427
282
10/8/2009
162
51
900
(Bond-CDS) Basis
800
Date
700
600
BBB
BB
9/12/2008
54bp
105bp
126bp
12/16/2008
282
388
760
10/8/2009
51
100
123
bp/year
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
1/2/2007
7/2/2007
1/2/2008
7/2/2008
A-Rated
BBB-Rated
1/2/2009
BB-Rated
Source: J.P.Morgan
6
7/2/2009
Swap spreads have become extremely low in the 10-year sector and have
been negative in the 30-year sector due to demand to receive fixed.
bp/year
20
Date
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
1/2/2007
7/2/2007
1/2/2008
7/2/2008
On-the-run
1/2/2009
Off-the-run
Source: J.P.Morgan
7
7/2/2009
On-the-run
Off-the-run
9/12/08
-61bp
-38bp
12/16/08
-17
56
10/08/09
-14
400
500
600
700
800
900
200
13
17
20
23
26
29
400
19
28
36
44
52
60
68
500
23
33
43
53
63
73
83
600
26
38
49
61
72
85
97
800
30
45
59
74
89
105
122
900
32
47
63
79
97
115
134
1000
33
50
67
85
104
124
145
400
500
600
700
800
900
200
19
27
33
37
38
38
39
400
41
58
72
86
98
110
122
500
49
69
86
102
117
132
147
600
56
78
97
116
134
151
169
800
66
92
116
139
161
184
206
900
62
98
123
148
173
198
223
1000
57
103
130
157
184
211
238
The analysis shown above is performed using Citadel proprietary models. The estimates and projections used in this presentation rely
on numerous assumptions that forecast market conditions. These assumptions can be materially inaccurate. Further, regulatory
changes can cause the models used to be materially inaccurate. The example shown should not be relied upon as representative of an
actual investment. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those being
shown.
11
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Basis (bp)
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
0% Correlation
20% Correlation
40% Correlation
The analysis shown above is performed using Citadel proprietary models. The estimates and projections used in this presentation rely
on numerous assumptions that forecast market conditions. These assumptions can be materially inaccurate. Further, regulatory
changes can cause the models used to be materially inaccurate. The example shown should not be relied upon as representative of an
actual investment. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those being
shown.
13
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
Basis (bp)
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
The analysis shown above is performed using Citadel proprietary models. The estimates and projections used in this presentation rely
on numerous assumptions that forecast market conditions. These assumptions can be materially inaccurate. Further, regulatory
changes can cause the models used to be materially inaccurate. The example shown should not be relied upon as representative of an
actual investment. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those being
shown.
14
Sep-09
Baa
Ba
.01
Baa
.01
Baa
.04
.03
.15
.06
.07
.25
Ten Year
B
Baa
Ba
.02
.29
.01
.04
.02
.08
.09
.06
.17
.38
Source: Default Correlation and Credit Analysis, Douglas J. Lucas, The Journal of Fixed Income, March 1995.
15
600
Peak (7/18/07)
Total Inventory: $524BN
for Clients: $243BN
500
$ Billions
400
(9/16/09)
Total Inventory: $215BN
for Clients: $91BN
300
200
100
0
01/05 05/05 09/05 01/06 05/06 09/06 01/07 05/07 09/07 01/08 05/08 09/08 01/09 05/09 09/09
Date
Repo for Clients
Dealer Positions
120%
% of Peak Positions
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
07/01
07/02
07/03
07/04
07/05
07/06
07/07
07/08
Date
Repo for Clients
Dealer Positions
07/09
Many Clients took credit risk exposure through single name CDS or
structured credit tranches.
Dealers could not offset the hedges by buying protection in the CDS
market and, therefore, were buying corporate bonds (cash).
These cash positions became extremely hard to finance during the crisis.
18
April 2007
August 2008
U.S. Treasuries
0.25
3.0
Investment-grade Bonds
0-3
8-12
High-yield Bonds
10-15
25-40
Equities
15
20
10-12
15-20
18-25
35+
Prime MBS
2-4
10-20
ABS
3-5
50-60
Source: Financial Stress and Deleveraging, IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2008, Page 42
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Product
Exchange/OTC
Clearing Mechanism
Credit Derivatives
OTC
Multilateral, MBSCC
Foreign Exchange
Largely OTC
Multilateral
Equities Futures
Exchange (CME)
Multilateral
20
bp
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08 Sep-08
Source: JP Morgan
21
Jan-09
May-09 Sep-09
300
300
200
200
bp/year
bp/year
Investing in Euro
100
0
-100
Jan-08
100
0
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
May-09
Sep-09
-100
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Investing in Yen
100
bp/year
50
0
-50
-100
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
The analysis shown above is performed using Citadel proprietary models. The estimates and projections used in this presentation
rely on numerous assumptions that forecast market conditions. These assumptions can be materially inaccurate. Further,
regulatory changes can cause the models used to be materially inaccurate. The example shown should not be relied upon as
representative of an actual investment. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or
losses similar to those being shown.
22
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Implied Financing Rate in S&P 500 Futures (90 days Constant Maturity) Versus
3 months LIBOR
60
bp/year
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
1/2/2008
5/2/2008
9/2/2008
1/2/2009
Source: JP Morgan
23
5/2/2009
9/2/2009
Appendix
24
exp(CashSpread cont ) 1
exp(CashSpread cont ) (1 R )
25
Let A be the event that the counterparty defaults, and B be the event that the
reference entity defaults. Also, define IA and IB as the indicator functions of A
and B respectively.
( A, B) =
Cov( I A , I B )
[I A I B ] [I A ][I B ]
=
var(I A ) var(I B )
var(I A ) var(I B )
[I A ] = PA , var(I A ) = PA (1 PA ), [I B ] = P (B ), var(I B ) = PB (1 PB )
And [I A I B ] = PAB (Joint Probability)
2
PAB = A, B
PA (1 PA ) PB (1 PB ) + PA PB
26
CF =
s
s
P
1 rc
=
P
1 c
2 Pr
P
+ rc
where
3
Counterparty Credit = s - s = s 1
CF
Pc
P
1
+ rc
2
3
Counterparty Credit = s
1 Prc
2 Pr
* Source : " Valuing Credit Default Swaps II" , John Hull and Alan White, Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 8, No 3, Spring 2001.
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