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Stefan Bauschard

February 24 Politics

TPA Neg......................................................................................................... 2
1NC U......................................................................................................... 3
2NC U......................................................................................................... 4
U Republican Support............................................................................10
U Obama Pushing..................................................................................11
U - -Top of the Docket............................................................................... 12
U A2: Thumpers..................................................................................... 14
U -- A2 AUMF Thumper..........................................................................16
U A2: Budget Thumper..........................................................................18
U A2: Immigration Thumper..................................................................20
U A2: Currency...................................................................................... 21
IL TPA Key to Other Trade Agreements..................................................23
IL PC Key............................................................................................... 26
Impact Open Internet............................................................................ 28
Impact Russia........................................................................................ 31
Impact Asia War.................................................................................... 33
Impact Asia........................................................................................... 34
Impact -- A2: No Asian War......................................................................36
Impact Global Free Trade.......................................................................37
Impact US Economy..............................................................................42
AUMF Neg................................................................................................... 43
AUMF U.................................................................................................... 44
TPA Af......................................................................................................... 45
Af............................................................................................................ 46
A2: Open Internet Impact.........................................................................50
AUMF Af..................................................................................................... 52

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

TPA Neg

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

1NC U
TPA will pass by a slim margin of support now
Reuters, 2-23-15, Fast Track Authority a Close Call in US Congress,
http://www.dairyherd.com/news/fast-track-trade-authority-close-call-uscongress DOA: 2-24-15
Lawmakers' approval of a bill to streamline the passage of trade
deals through the U.S. Congress will be a "close call," U.S. Agriculture
Secretary Tom Vilsack said last week. U.S. officials are lobbying
lawmakers to support legislation allowing the White House to submit trade
deals to Congressfor a yes-or-no vote, without amendments, in exchange for
setting negotiating goals. "I think it's a very close call right now," Vilsack said
at the annual U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook Forum, according to
trade publication Inside US Trade.
"I think there's still work that needs to be done to make sure that
people are comfortable in knowing there's adequate transparency, and
understanding and appreciating thatCongress is not surrendering its power to
the executive branch." Opponents of trade promotion authority, or fast-track,
include conservative Republicans against granting more authority to the
White House and Democrats worried about the impact of trade deals, such as
the 12-nation Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), on jobs. As part of the lobbying
efort, the White House has posted a YouTube video touting the benefits of
trade and senior administration officials are visiting towns and cities around
the country and speaking to small businesses. U.S. Trade Representative
Michael Froman toured a Mary Kay cosmetics factory inDallas, Texas on
Tuesday and Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker has been to Tacoma, San
Francisco, Portland and Seattle. "Trade promotion legislation is a hard
vote to get passed," she said on a media call on Thursday to promote the
benefits of trade and exports in Minnesota. "This is not going to pass by
wide margins, it will pass by a small margin, but it will pass because
it's the right thing to do."
Experts say fast-track will give trading partners security deals that will not be
picked apart in Congress once they are agreed on and is important to get a
good deal on the TPP, which is nearing completion. Trade skeptics are also
lobbying lawmakers to reject the bill, which Senate Committee on Finance
Chairman Orrin Hatch has said he hopes to introduce this month. A coalition
of 35 religious groups - including Christian, Muslim and Jewish organizations wrote to members of Congress this week urging them to oppose fast-track.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

2NC U
Deal close, TPA will pass

William Baldwin, 2-23-15, Australian Business Review, Deal close on


sweeping fast-track Asia pact,
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/deal-close-onsweeping-fast-track-asia-trade-pact/story-fnay3ubk-1227234503082 DOA: 224-15
HOUSE and Senate negotiators are converging on a deal to ease the
passage of trade agreements, a key step in putting the divisive issue
before the full congress as the White House pursues a sweeping trade pact in
Asia. Thelegislation,knownastradepromotionauthorityorfasttrack,comesastheObama

administrationseekstoconcludenegotiationsona12nationPacifictradedealtheeconomic
centrepieceofthepresidentsrebalancingofUSpolicytowardsAsia. Fasttrackallowscongresstoset
negotiatingprioritiesfortheadministrationandprovideinput,whileensuringadealstruckoverseaswould
getacongressionalvotewithnoamendmentsorproceduraldelays.FasttrackispopularwithRepublicans
buthasmanyDemocraticcritics. Businessgroupsandotherbackersoftradeagreementssaythelegislation
iscriticaltoassuretradingpartnerstheywontbeaskedfordeeperconcessionsonCapitolHillafter
negotiationsarecomplete. ObserverssayaidestocongressionalcommitteeleadersOrrinHatch,Ron
WydenandPaulRyanhavesettledmostdisagreementsoverthelegislation.Oneremainingissuea
technicalbutcrucialelementishowCongresswouldbeabletoremoveanunacceptabletradedealfrom
thefasttrackprocess.Complicationsonthatissueorotherscouldstilldelayorunravelanyagreement. A
dealtointroducethelegislationcouldbereachedindays,observerssay,afterMrRyanreturnsfroma
tradefocusedtriptoAsia. Imoptimisticthatitsgoingtobeconcludednextweek,saidBillReinsch,
presidentoftheNationalForeignTradeCouncil,agroupbackingthelegislation.

will passObama needs to maintain his all out push

Inside US Trade, 2/13/15, New Dems Say White House In Early Phase Of
Building Support For TPA, TPP, insidetrade.com/inside-us-trade/new-demssay-white-house-early-phase-building-support-tpa-tpp
The White House effort to gin up support for President Obama's trade
agenda and Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) in Congress is still in a preliminary
phase of trying to sway trade skeptics and has not yet advanced to the point of

counting votes, members of the congressional New Democrat Coalition indicated on Feb. 11. After a
closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill with White House National Economic Council Director Jef Zients, New
Democrat Chairman Ron Kind (D-WI) and Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY) characterized the initiative that
Zients is spearheading to build support for TPA as "outreach" and an "information efort." "I don't know if
you'd call it a 'whipping efort,' but certainly outreach," Kind told Inside U.S .Trade. " You're just

seeing a much higher level of engagement by the administration from the


president on down - Cabinet secretaries, to [Zients] and his team now, too."
Rep. Scott Peters (D-CA) and Meeks said the meeting with Zients was largely focused on trade policy in
addition to other aspects of Obama's economic agenda, which Meeks said included infrastructure and tax
policy. Although both declined to ofer specifics about Zients' message, Peters indicated that Zients
intoned many of the same points Obama made on trade in last month's State of the Union address. Meeks
also cautioned against labeling

the White House initiative a whip operation, dubbing it an

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

aimed at countering notions advanced by critics that


TPA gives away congressional power or that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is
a repeat of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). He acknowledged
that the administration is already facing declarations from a majority of
House Democratic freshmen in opposition to TPA, and attributed this in part to a
"information efort"

lack of "information" on the issues from the administration and other TPA supporters to date. Meeks
expressed confidence that

this was a pattern that could start to be reversed in

light of the new White House engagement . "These are freshmen.


They've never voted on this before, and that's before they've gotten
information," Meeks said. "So the information was not getting out, in my
opinion, in the way or the manner that it should have been. That is
what's being fixed now: get the free flow of information out there so that members can
articulate those things to their constituents." As part of this efort, Meeks said, the
administration is trying to put the word out in Congress that
lawmakers can view the draft text of the TPP to gain a sense of what is in it - and

how it is diferent from NAFTA. Meeks added, however, that it is difficult for the administration to count
votes in support of TPA renewal legislation or the TPP agreement as a TPA bill has not yet been introduced
and the negotiations have not been finalized. Whether this transparency push will reassure skeptics is
unclear. Some skeptical lawmakers, such as Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX), have acknowledged that members
can view the texts, but complained that they are not able to have their personal expert staf accompany
them or take notes. House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Ranking Member
Sander Levin (D-MI) are pressing the executive branch to give Congress more access to negotiating texts,
and Ryan said last week he expects this issue to be resolved by the time he releases a bill to renew TPA. A
congressional source said this issue would likely be dealt with in the TPA bill Ryan is expected to introduce
with other lawmakers in the coming weeks (Inside U.S. Trade, Feb. 6). Meeks also signaled that a part of

the campaign by the administration will involve Obama making the case for
trade more broadly in public speeches around the country. "The
president himself will be going out, traveling across to Middle America, to talk to them
about why this is important to get done and how this helps them and their families," Meeks said. " The
president will be aggressively going out and talking to people in that
regard."

TPA will pass the Senate


Kristina Peterson, 2-23-15, Wall Street Journal, Bernie Sanders Expects Trade
Promotion Bill to Pass Senate Over His Opposition,
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/02/23/bernie-sanders-expects-tradepromotion-bill-to-pass-senate/ DOA: 2-24-15
Sen.BernieSanders(I.,Vt.)saidheexpectedadealtoeasecongressionalpassageoftradeagreements
wouldpasstheSenate,despitehisownopposition.Istronglydisagreewiththepresidentontrade,Mr.
SanderssaidinaninterviewwithTheWallStreetJournalMonday,notingthathehaddiscussedtheissue
withPresidentBarackObamarecently.TheVermontlawmakersaidprevioustradeagreementshad
destroyedU.S.jobsandreducedwagesatotherU.S.firmstryingtobemorecompetitivewithoverseas
companies.Theyhavebeenabysmalfailures,Mr.Sanderssaidofearliertradeagreements.TheWhite
HouseisworkingonpersuadingsomeDemocratstosupportlegislation,knownastradepromotion
authorityorfasttrack,allowingCongresstosetnegotiatingprioritiesfortheadministrationandprovide
input,whileensuringadealstruckoverseaswouldgetacongressionalvotewithnoamendmentsor
proceduraldelays.Idontthinkthepresidentisgoingtochangemymind,Mr.Sanderssaid.

TPA close to passage---insiders

Mauldin, 2/20

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

(WSJ Columnist, Top Senate, House Lawmakers Nearing Deal on Trade


Promotion Authority, http://www.wsj.com/articles/top-senate-houselawmakers-nearing-deal-on-trade-promotion-authority-1424467559)
House and Senate negotiators are converging on a deal to ease the passage
of trade agreements, a key step in putting the divisive issue before the full
Congress as the White House pursues a sweeping trade pact in Asia. The
legislation, known as trade promotion authority or fast track, comes as the
Obama administration is seeking to conclude negotiations on a 12-nation
Pacific trade dealthe economic centerpiece of the presidents rebalancing of
U.S. policy toward Asia. Fast track allows Congress to set negotiating
priorities for the administration and provide input, while ensuring a deal
struck overseas would get a congressional vote with no amendments or
procedural delays. Fast track is popular with Republicans but has many
Democratic critics. Business groups and other backers of trade agreements
say the legislation is critical to assure trading partners they wont be asked
for deeper concessions on Capitol Hill after negotiations are complete. Aides
to congressional committee leaders Sen. Orrin Hatch (R., Utah), Sen. Ron
Wyden (D., Ore.) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) have settled most
disagreements over the legislation, say people familiar with
the talks. One remaining issuea technical but crucial elementis how
Congress would be able to remove an unacceptable trade deal from the fast
track process, these people say. Complications on that issue or others could
still delay or unravel any agreement, they say. A deal to introduce the
legislation could be reached in days, observers say, after Mr. Ryan
returns from a trade-focused trip to Asia. Im optimistic that its going to
be concluded next week, said Bill Reinsch, president of the National
Foreign Trade Council, a group backing the legislation. Mr. Hatch on Friday
called a hearing next week of his Senate Finance Committee to discuss trade
policy and potentially the new bill. But Mr. Wyden, the top Democrat on the
panel, said a hearing is premature because a final deal hasnt been struck
yet. Mr. Ryan said Thursday in Japan that a deal is very close.

TPA push is in the 11th hourpassage likely

Reuters, 2/19/15, U.S. lawmaker sees fast-track trade power soon in step
towards trade pact, www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/19/us-asia-trade-tppusa-idUSKBN0LN0ME20150219
chairman of a U.S. congressional committee responsible for trade said on Thursday
he expects passage of legislation to fast-track trade deals soon , a vital step
towards a Pacific trade pact covering a large chunk of the global
economy. Negotiators from 12 Pacific nations hope to conclude talks on a TransPacific Partnership (TPP) within months, and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul
Ryan said legislation known as trade promotion authority ( TPA) should pass soon , easing
The

a major hurdle. "We're very close , we're in the 11th hour of negotiating
the final pieces of TPA," Ryan, in Tokyo with a Congressional delegation for negotiations, told a
news conference ahead of a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. " Once those
negotiations are wrapped up we anticipate moving ... fairly quickly , and

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

TPP could then be concluded soon


after the TPA was passed. Dave Reichert, a lawmaker who is also a member of Ryan's committee, said
that's really this spring," he said. Ryan said he hoped the
they hoped to clinch a deal by the end of the year.

That push secures sufficient votes

Inside US Trade, 2/17/15, Tiberi Underscores Challenges Of TPA


Passage, But Remains Optimistic, insidetrade.com/daily-news/tiberiunderscores-challenges-tpa-passage-remains-optimistic

House Ways & Means trade subcommittee Chairman Pat Tiberi (R-OH) last
week indicated that efforts to build congressional support for a Trade
Promotion Authority (TPA) or fast-track bill are facing challenges due to a
more vocal opposition movement bolstered in part by social media and
the notion among some Republicans that passing TPA amounts to ceding
undue authority to the president, according to informed sources.
But Tiberi also expressed optimism that Congress will be able to pass TPA
despite these challenges , especially given the push by President
Obama to garner votes for getting it done, sources said.
He spoke during a closed-door meeting of business representatives last week
at which administration officials also provided an update of their efforts
to build support for TPA through a task force led by National
Economic Council Director Jef Zients.
These officials underlined the importance of building support for a
TPA bill as soon as possible after it is introduced, sources said. They also
said members of Obama's cabinet as well as other senior officials would
be touting the trade agenda in events around the country during this
week's President's Day recess.
Tiberi noted that TPA passage was difficult even in 2002, but it is made
even harder now by the existence of social media, talk radio and louder
statements from interest groups, according to these sources.
He said his assessment, after participating in a whip meeting the previous
day, was that much more work needs to be done to educate Republican
members about TPA, especially to confirm that TPA does not mean
Congress is giving away its authority to the president, sources said.
In a TPA bill, Congress abrogates its power to amend bills and agrees to an
up-or-down vote on a trade agreement eligible for fast-track protection.
Similarly, Ways & Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) indicated in a Feb. 13
press briefing that more work needs to be done to convince skeptical
members of the Republican caucus to support TPA. He noted that although
Republicans are by and large pro-trade, there are still a lot of
misconceptions about what TPA is. And we are in the middle of making
sure that we clear up those misconceptions, he said.
Together with House Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX), Tiberi
is co-chairing a House Republican trade working group that is laboring to
build support for TPA among the caucus and will begin whipping members
once a bill is introduced.
Tiberi told business representatives that he believes a TPA bill should be
launched in the Senate, an idea also put forth by Ryan in a separate Feb. 13
press briefing. These appear to be signals that this idea is gaining

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

traction. Having a strong vote in the Senate is meant to provide political


cover for hesitant House Democrats.
In the past, this is an approach advocated by supporters of a given
trade measure in the face of uncertain support in the House.

TPA passage likely


Elaine Kurtenbach, AP, 2/19/15, US lawmakers say agreement on trade
promotion authority near, www.theolympian.com/2015/02/19/3584410/uslawmakers-say-agreement-on.html
A bipartisan congressional agreement on granting President Barack
Obama trade promotion authority for a pan-Pacific trade deal is
likely this spring, U.S. lawmakers visiting Japan said Thursday.
Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, chairman of the House Ways and Means
Committee, and seven other lawmakers were meeting with Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe and other top Japanese officials, promoting the U.S.-led
Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP.
Ryan and the other lawmakers said they believed the TPP was crucial for both
economies and that there was growing support for giving the president
the authority to reach an agreement.
"We see a good team building on this issue. We're working with
Democrats right now in drafting TPA legislation," Ryan said.
Progress toward a final TPP agreement among the dozen countries involved in
the trade talks hinges partly on settling disputes between the U.S. and Japan
on trade in farm products and autos that have obliged negotiators to keep
pushing deadlines back.
Trade promotion authority would set guidelines but let the White House send
Congress a trade proposal to adopt or reject, but not amend. Every president
since Franklin Roosevelt has had some form of enhanced trade-dealing
powers, but Obama still lacks it.
Without that guarantee, it is harder for the other countries involved in the
talks to make tough political decisions.
Despite opposition to both the TPP initiative and TPA among labor
groups and many Democrats, Ryan said he believes an agreement is
possible .
"We are the committee that writes TPA. We are in the closing stages of
finalizing the legislation. We anticipate passing this legislation this
spring," Ryan said.
Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the sole Democrat in Ryan's delegation and
a member of the House Foreign Afairs Committee, said he believed the TPA
and TPP legislation would "pass in a bipartisan way."

Their evidence just discusses the strength of oppositionit does not


translate into enough votes to block TPA yet
Jonathan Weisman, 2/9/15, Left and Right Align in Fighting Obamas Trade
Agenda, www.nytimes.com/2015/02/10/business/left-and-right-align-infighting-obamas-trade-agenda.html

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

Those in the pro-trade coalition express confidence they have the


numbers they need to pass t rade p romotion a uthority.
Administration officials say the voices on the left and right may be
loud, but they are still a small fringe .
But they have work to do. About 150 of the Houses 188 Democrats have
already signed on to letters opposing fast track, an ominous figure for the
president, since Mr. Boehner said last Congress he would need as many as 50
Democratic votes.
In 2013, 22 House Republicans signed on to their own opposition letter, of
which 17 remain in Congress. And since then, mainstream Republicans like
Eric Cantor of Virginia and Tom Petri of Wisconsin were replaced by Tea Partyaligned conservatives who may be less likely to lend the president the
support.
Its going to require supporters of this policy to overcome
objections from both Democrats and Republicans, Josh Earnest, the
White House press secretary, said. And the president will make a case,
and he will make this case to both Democrats and Republicans.

Passage likely, but capital key to smooth remaining disputes


Michael White, Global Trade Daily, 2/17/15, Fast Track Authority
Expected to Pass Congress, www.globaltrademag.com/global-tradedaily/news/fast-track-authority-expected-to-pass-congress
A top legislator in Washington is confident that legislation will clear
some remaining legal hurdles and become law, giving the White House
so-called fast track authority to negotiate international agreements without the threat of
Congressional amendment or filibuster. The next round of talks aimed at renewing
Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is set to begin next month with the expectation
that a deal could be struck at that time with bi-partisan support ,
says Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. Ryan, whose
powerful committee oversees trade legislation, is seen as the standard bearer for renewed TPA on Capitol
Hill. Speaking at a recent meeting of the Washington (D.C.) International Trade Association, Ryan, whose
committee oversees the flow of trade legislation, said, Were in active discussions with our counterparts
over in the Senate and Im optimistic about those.

Renewed TPA would allow the

president to submit both the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the
Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreements to Congress for straight up-ordown votes without any amendments. Ryan argued the legislation was much more than that, since it

is the primary means by which Congress tells the executive branch what it wants in trade agreements. We
say to the administration, if you want this up-or-down vote, you have to meet three requirements: Number
one, you have to follow our guidelines. Number two, you have to talk to us. And number three, you have to
remember: We get the final say, Ryan said, comparing the legislation to a contract between Congress

Congress and the Obama administration must work


together to seek the best way to move forward, he said while voicing a
cautionary note acknowledging that there are a number of issues from currency
manipulation to market access that need to be addressed before TPA
becomes a reality. The countries we have agreements with, we have a manufacturing surplus
and the White House.

with, Ryan said. If you look at the countries we do not have agreements with, we have a big trade deficit
with, so getting agreements is good for our workers, its good for manufacturing, its good for agriculture.
Critics of renewed TPA say that big business has had the greatest influence on past trade negotiations,
which is one reason why the programs have failed to create the jobs promised. They believe using fast
track to reach agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership will produce the same disappointing results. We
do trade deals knowing were going to have increased trade deficits, according to Communications
Workers of America President Larry Cohen in one media report. Theres not one good reason for doing it.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

10

industry groups including the National Association of


have come out in favor of renewed TPA. Its certainly something
thats very valuable to have, said Chris Moore, the groups senior director of international
On the other hand, a number of
Manufacturers,

trade policy. Its really important for job growth and competitiveness. Another is the Software &

which has urged 18 Democratic members of


the House of Representatives to support President Obamas call for Trade Promotion
Authority. Renewed TPA, the group said, would promote trade deals that include provisions on
Information Industry Association,

data flows and intellectual property that are crucial to the American economy and our workers.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

11

U Republican Support
Republicans support TPA now
Mike Masnick, 2-23-15, Tech Dirt, Trade Agreements Should Protect an
Open Internet, Not Kill It,
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150222/17384530109/trade-agreementsshould-protect-open-internet-not-kill-it.shtml DOA: 2-25-14
In the fight over the TPP (and the other big trade agreement, with Europe,
called the TTIP or TAFTA), an important side issue is over so-called "fast track"
authority, or (more officially) "trade promotion authority." This is where
Congress basically tells the USTR that it will only take a single "yes/no" vote
on whatever the USTR comes back with, rather than delving into the details
of the trade agreement and challenging specific aspects of it. In fact, there's
an argument that, without fast track authority, the USTR can't really commit
the US to anything. What's really odd is that, in a Republican-controlled
Congress that seems to want to fight President Obama on just about
anything that even has a whiff of the executive branch having more
power, it's those Republicans in Congress who are pushing strongly
for fast track authority -- efectively giving up their (Constitutionallymandated) power to regulate international trade.

Republicans will cooperate with Obama on trade


Bill Guida, 2-24-15, Kenosha News, Ryan sees common ground with
President on trade,
http://www.kenoshanews.com/news/ryan_sees_common_ground_with_preside
nt_on_trade_481464245.html DOA 2-25-15
U.S.Rep.PaulRyansaidMondayaschairmanofthepowerfulHouseWaysandMeansCommittee
histopgoalsincludefindingcommongroundwithPresidentBarackObama.Iplanonrollingoutideas
howwecandothingsdifferently...IneedtoshowhowIcandothat,notjusttalkaboutit,Ryansaid.
DuringavisittotheKenoshaNews,Ryan,RWis.,citedtradepromotionastheoneareawherehe
alreadyhassomeagreementwithObamaandthereforethegreatestlikelihoodforbipartisanaction
topositiontheU.S.asthemostpowerfulplayerintheinternationalarena.Noting90percentof
consumersliveincountriesoutsidetheU.S.,Ryansaidcalledtradepromotionakeytodrivingthe
countryseconomyfromthestandpointofemployers,employeesandtheU.S.asawhole.Thegoalis
accessingthosemarkets...Eitherwewritetradeagreements,orChinadoes.ThatswhyIagreewith
PresidentObamaonthis,Ryansaid.EitherChinaleads,orwedo.Becausejobsproducinggoodsfor
exporttypicallyofferworkershigherpaythanthoseproducingitemsfordomesticbuyers,itsparamount
fortheWhiteHouseandCongresstodevelopatradepromotionauthoritybillintandem,Ryanadded.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

12

U Obama Pushing
Obama pushing TPA, ready for a vote soon
VickiNeedham,223,15,TheHill,BattleOvertradeContinues,
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/233543tradedebateremainshottopicDOA:22415
Inrecentmonths,PresidentObamaandhisCabinethavetakenaggressivestepstopersuade
DemocratstosupportTPAandthebroadertradeagenda.SenateFinanceCommitteeChairmanOrrin
Hatch(RUtah),panelrankingmemberSen.RonWyden(DOre.)andHouseWaysandMeans
CommitteeChairmanPaulRyan(RWis.)areworkingonanupdatedversionofthelegislation,which
couldbereadybytheendofthemonth.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

13

U - -Top of the Docket


TPA will be introduced in days
Mike Masnick, 2-23-15, Tech Dirt, Trade Agreements Should Protect an
Open Internet, Not Kill It,
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150222/17384530109/trade-agreementsshould-protect-open-internet-not-kill-it.shtml DOA: 2-25-14
Either way, it is strongly expected that Congress will introduce some
sort of Trade Promotion Authority bill in the coming days, even as the key
Democrat involved in this issue, Senator Ron Wyden, has pushed back on
hearings planned by Senator Orrin Hatch for later this week.

Legislation ready soon


Vicki Needham, 2-23-15, The Hill, Froman Makes Pitch for Trade Promotion
Authority, http://thehill.com/policy/finance/233468-froman-makes-pitch-fortrade-promotion-authority DOA: 2-24-15
Opponentsofthetradedealshavebeenonasimilarnationwidetour,arguingthattheagreementstoo
closelyresembletradepolicyofoldandshouldberejecteduntilanewmodelisputintoplace.Senate
FinanceCommitteeChairmanOrrinHatch(RUtah),panelrankingmemberSen.RonWyden(DOre.)
andHouseWaysandMeansCommitteeChairmanPaulRyan(RWis.)areworkingonanupdated
versionofthelegislation,whichisexpectedtobereadysoon.

TPA passes soonprefer recent political opinion over past


TPA bills
Reuters, 2-19-15 (U.S. lawmaker sees fast-track trade power soon in
step towards trade pact, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/19/us-asiatrade-tpp-usa-idUSKBN0LN0ME20150219, accessed 2-19-15, CMM)
The chairman of a U.S. congressional committee responsible for
trade said on Thursday he expects passage of legislation to fast-track
trade deals soon, a vital step towards a Pacific trade pact covering a
large chunk of the global economy. Negotiators from 12 Pacific nations
hope to conclude talks on a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) within
months, and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan
said legislation known as trade promotion authority ( TPA) should pass
soon, easing a major hurdle . " We're very close, we're in the 11th
hour of negotiating the final pieces of TPA ," Ryan, in Tokyo with a
Congressional delegation for negotiations, told a news conference ahead of a
meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. "Once those
negotiations are wrapped up we anticipate moving ... fairly quickly,
and that's really this spring ," he said. Ryan said he hoped the TPP

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

14

could then be concluded soon after the TPA was passed. Dave
Reichert, a lawmaker who is also a member of Ryan's committee, said they
hoped to clinch a deal by the end of the year.

TPA is at the top of the agenda Obamas pushing


Needham, The Hill, 1-13-15 (Vicki, Trade tops Ryan's Ways and

Means 2015 agenda, http://thehill.com/policy/finance/229313-ryan-makestrade-a-top-priority, accessed 1-13-15, CMM)


New House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan said Tuesday
that giving President Obama expanded trade powers would be a top
priority this year as the powerful panel seeks an avenue for faster
economic growth. The Wisconsin Republican identified trade promotion
authority (TPA) as the first issue he would tackle. Under TPA, also known as fast-track
authority, Congress gets an up-or-down vote on any trade deal that reaches Capitol Hill. Ryan said TPA
would give Congress the power to set negotiation objectives for trade agreements, get the best deal from
global partners and hold the Obama administration accountable on trade. Building a healthy economy,
that is our mission this year, Ryan said at his first hearing at the helm of the tax-writing committee. Ryan
and other Republicans on the panel said that expanding trade will open more markets to U.S. exports and,
in turn, boost jobs creation and economic growth. "As we all know, 96 percent of the worlds consumers,
they don't live here," Ryan said. "I believe Americans can compete with any country. We just need to give
them a chance," Ryan said. "Break down these barriers and American trade along with American jobs
will take of." Rep. Sandy Levin (Mich.), the top Democrat on the panel, said a 12-nation Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) is at a "vital juncture" and many important issues have yet to be resolved that will
require bipartisan discussions. Levin called the TPP the "most significant negotiation in over 20 years and
urged Ryan to work with Democrats on the details of TPP to ensure that Congress is a full partner in
shaping the massive agreement, which includes nations from Chile to Japan. The president, who met with
House and Senate leaders at the White House on Tuesday, reiterated that there's an opportunity to work

Negotiators working on the TPP have said they hope to


complete the deal early this year. If that happens, it would probably take another six
months or so to get the deal ready for votes in the House and Senate. Republicans on both
sides of the Capitol have expressed support for granting fast-track
power, which boosts the chances of approving any trade deal that
reaches Congress. Rep. Charles Boustany Jr. (R-La.) said during the hearing that TPA would give
together on trade.

U.S. negotiators the "best leverage to move forward" in the talks and that other nations such as Japan
won't put their best ofers on the table until Congress can get it passed. Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio), the new
chairman of the panels trade subcommittee who backs quick passage of fast-track, asked witnesses what
they consider trade's top benefits. In response, Douglas Holtz-Eakin president of the American Action
Forum, said moving forward on fast-track authority now is important because it gives the United States a
chance to write global trade rules that will benefit the U.S. economy. He said opening markets will grow
jobs and help the labor market return to full employment. It means better income and better jobs, not just
more, but peoples jobs will be better as a result, he told the panel. He said the TPP and another major
trade pact dubbed the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have the potential to create
more than 1 million U.S. jobs and boost growth by more than $200 billion. But many Democrats have
expressed frustration with the secrecy of the negotiations and are concerned that trade deals would hurt

Obama administration is stepping up its outreach to


the business community and lawmakers in its effort to bolster
support for trade. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, Small
Business Administration head Maria Contreras-Sweet and deputy U.S.
Trade Representative Robert Holleyman are sitting down on Tuesday with a
wide range of business leaders to discuss how trade policy affects
their businesses at a roundtable organized by the White House Business Council and advocacy
group Business Forward. Under President Obamas leadership, the U.S. is
American workers. Meanwhile, the

spearheading the most significant trade agenda in history , Holleyman


said.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

15

U A2: Thumpers
TPA next week. No evidence their thumper is before that
William Baldwin, 2-23-15, Australian Business Review, Deal close on
sweeping fast-track Asia pact,
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/deal-close-onsweeping-fast-track-asia-trade-pact/story-fnay3ubk-1227234503082 DOA: 224-15
HOUSE and Senate negotiators are converging on a deal to ease the
passage of trade agreements, a key step in putting the divisive issue
before the full congress as the White House pursues a sweeping trade pact in
Asia. Thelegislation,knownastradepromotionauthorityorfasttrack,comesastheObama

administrationseekstoconcludenegotiationsona12nationPacifictradedealtheeconomic
centrepieceofthepresidentsrebalancingofUSpolicytowardsAsia. Fasttrackallowscongresstoset
negotiatingprioritiesfortheadministrationandprovideinput,whileensuringadealstruckoverseaswould
getacongressionalvotewithnoamendmentsorproceduraldelays.FasttrackispopularwithRepublicans
buthasmanyDemocraticcritics. Businessgroupsandotherbackersoftradeagreementssaythelegislation
iscriticaltoassuretradingpartnerstheywontbeaskedfordeeperconcessionsonCapitolHillafter
negotiationsarecomplete. ObserverssayaidestocongressionalcommitteeleadersOrrinHatch,Ron
WydenandPaulRyanhavesettledmostdisagreementsoverthelegislation.Oneremainingissuea
technicalbutcrucialelementishowCongresswouldbeabletoremoveanunacceptabletradedealfrom
thefasttrackprocess.Complicationsonthatissueorotherscouldstilldelayorunravelanyagreement. A
dealtointroducethelegislationcouldbereachedindays,observerssay,afterMrRyanreturnsfroma
tradefocusedtriptoAsia. Imoptimisticthatitsgoingtobeconcludednextweek,saidBillReinsch,
presidentoftheNationalForeignTradeCouncil,agroupbackingthelegislation.

Obama is set up for legislative victoriescurrent fights solidify Dem unity


Sarah Mimms, National Journal, 2/18/15, Why Democrats Won't Cave on
Immigration, www.nationaljournal.com/congress/why-democrats-won-t-caveon-immigration-20150218
Just a few months ago, Democrats couldn't get far enough away from
President Obama's immigration policy. At the behest of red-state members, leadership pushed the
White House to hold of on an executive action until after Election Day, worried that it would be the noose

Fast-forward to February, and


with a shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security fast approaching,
Democrats in red states and blue are holding strong , voting repeatedly against
legislation to defund the president's action despite incessant GOP threats that they will
pay a political price. So what changed? For one thing, Republicans made it easy
for them, Democrats say, by tying the immigration rollback to DHS funding
along with controversial amendments defunding the president's 2012 Deferred Action
for Childhood Arrivals program, which remains popular among Democratic
constituents. "There's some of my colleagues that feel that the executive order might have gone
around the necks of the party's most vulnerable members.

too far, but they still feel that the way the Republicans want to do this is not the right approach," said Rep.
Henry Cuellar, a member of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition. "When they go in and go even after the
kids that's a little bit too much. Even Blue Dogs have some reservations."

Democrats also believe

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

16

optics of another government shutdowngranted, a partial onewill


favor them, giving them little reason to capitulate on the issue. Recent polling indicates that they're
that the

right. Cuellar also pointed to polling after the 2013 government shutdown showing that voters were more
inclined to pin the funding lapse on the GOP. "History would tell us that Republicans would get more

even more importantly,


Democrats believe that the benefits of the party's messaging on the issue
that they want a clean funding bill to prevent a shutdownfar outweigh the potential
pitfalls of standing with Obama on his executive action. "I think there were a lot of
blame," he said. "It's a replay of the same movie." But

diferent ways to put Democrats on the spot ... on immigration and on the president's immigration policies,
and this particular way of doing it is sort of the worst possible messaging," one Senate Democratic aide
said. "We're seeing threats from ISIS every day. And I think tying the two togetherI think that was a poor
choice." Admittedly, Democratic unity is easier because their numbers have shrunkand
many of their most common defectors lost their reelection bids. "You've still got Blue Dogs, but I'd venture
to say they're not as conservative as the ones that are not with us anymore," Cuellar said. Cuellar added
that many remaining members have taken a lesson from those election results, when vulnerable
Democrats who voted with Republicans lost their seats anyway. "Some of the real conservative Blue Dogs
that voted with Republicans many timesit didn't matter because Republicans still went after them,"
Cuellar said. "They didn't get a pass Even if I vote no, the Republicans are still going to come against me
and the Hispanic community might be against me. Don't let me piss my base of." Republicans believe
that Monday's decision by a Texas judge that stalled the president's executive action will form cracks

the ruling showed no signs this week of


having any effect on Democratic resolve. Sens. Heidi Heitkamp, Angus King, Joe
within the Democratic Conference. But

Manchin, and Claire McCaskill, who have all voiced concerns about the president's action, said Tuesday
they would continue to stick with their leadership and oppose any DHS funding bill that is not completely
clean. The judge's decision, one Senate Democratic leadership aide said, could easily be overturned, giving
members little reason to factor it into their votes. "What happened [Monday] is several layers removed
away from the central question of was the president's executive order lawful," the aide said. "And it was
from a judge who has a very well-known and conservative record on immigration. So in that sense, it's not
a significant development in terms of the legal case." Republicans believe Democrats' banding together to
protect their president, particularly his controversial executive action, will hurt them in the end. And GOP
lawmakers don't necessarily buy the idea that voters will blame the majority if there is a shutdown.
"Democrat after Democrat goes to the Senate floor to give speeches about how important the Department
of Homeland Security is and yet they don't seem to be struck by the irony that it is Democrats who are
preventing the Senate from taking up funding for DHS at a time when global threats are only growing,"
Sen. Ted Cruz told National Journal last week. " It is both reckless and irresponsible." But showing

party

unity is a key part of the Democrats' strategy . After holding


together on the Keystone Pipeline debate and refusing to vote for cloture before the party's
amendments had been duly considered, Democrats are again showing the new
majority that they can't be taken for granted. That kind of political
stand will help members, including the moderates who oppose Obama's immigration action,
to notch legislative victories in the future .

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

17

U -- A2 AUMF Thumper
TPA bill ASAP
Mike Masnick, 2-23-15, Tech Dirt, Trade Agreements Should Protect an
Open Internet, Not Kill It,
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150222/17384530109/trade-agreementsshould-protect-open-internet-not-kill-it.shtml DOA: 2-25-14
Either way, it is strongly expected that Congress will introduce some
sort of Trade Promotion Authority bill in the coming days, even as the key
Democrat involved in this issue, Senator Ron Wyden, has pushed back on
hearings planned by Senator Orrin Hatch for later this week.

No evidence AUMF is before that


Its already priced-in. The recent, 2-24, evidence we have
that says TPA will pass in a close vote assumes hes
already pushing for AUMF
Not even a bill to vote on
Paul Kane, 2-22-15, Washington Post, Congress Split Over Ways to Face
Islamic State, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress-is-dividedas-it-prepares-to-debate-war-against-the-islamic-state/2015/02/22/16a57c7eb922-11e4-aa05-1ce812b3fdd2_story.html DOA: 2-25-15

CongressreturnstoWashingtonthisweekaftera10daybreaktoconfrontthedifficultbusinessofhowthe
UnitedStatesshouldwagewaragainstterroristorganizationssuchastheIslamicState.

The formal task is to write and approve an authorization for the use of
military force, or AUMF, but the broader goal is to demonstrate to the world
that there is unified, bipartisan support for U.S. military engagement against
a new, more mystifying enemy than the ones the United States faced when
Congress last approved similar resolutions, in 2001 and 2002. So far, the
only real agreement is that Congress needs to play a more forceful
role in the debate over foreign affairs. The Obama administration has
found itself caught in a position of sounding the alarm about
potential terrorist attacks as Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson
did Sunday, highlighting intelligence suggesting the possibility of attacks on
shopping malls but offering a war resolution that includes limits on
the scope of battle against the Islamic State. Critics on the right
have stepped up their campaign to refashion President Obamas
AUMF request to allow for a more expansive attack, even if it includes
U.S. troops fighting on the ground. On Sunday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.),
one of his partys leading military hawks, said he wants the Republican party
to talk openly about the hard things, like having boots on the ground in Syria
and Iraq, American boots on the ground in the fight. Theres no doubt in my

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

18

mind, militarily, that we cannot succeed in our endeavors to degrade and


destroy ISIL without having an American component, Graham said on ABCs
This Week, using another name for the Islamic State. Critics on the left
have worried that Obamas AUMF request lacks specificity and would
grant too much authority to the Pentagon to expand the war into other
theaters. Even the presidents staunchest national security ally on Capitol
Hill, Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), found something to seriously quibble with in the
draft. Oh, I think the resolution for three years, a time limit, is not
appropriate. We dont want to send a signal to the world that were there for
just so many years. Unfortunately, this battle is going to take a long time,
Reed, the ranking Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said in a
television interview last week on NBC. The formal work will be conducted
in the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations
committees, the panels with jurisdiction to authorize military actions
overseas. Secretary of State John F. Kerry is scheduled to testify before the
House Foreign Afairs Committee on Wednesday, while military legal experts
are set to appear before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday.
The Senate panels are trying to put together their AUMF hearing lineups as
well. Kerrys testimony is a regularly scheduled appearance to discuss the
State Departments annual budget, but it is certain to turn into a forum on
the situation in Syria. The AUMF request sent by Obama to Congress is
just an opening bid, as is normally the case, so there will be no vote on
that particular draft. Influential lawmakers like Reed and Sen. John McCain
(R-Ariz.), chairman of the Armed Services Committee will play key advisory
roles in the war debate, and ultimately every member of the House and
Senate will have a chance to vote on the resolution. That is, if the committees
can come to any kind of agreement on the outlines of a resolution. The
chance for failure is real, given that in recent years, Congress has
stumbled over traditionally bipartisan moves such as long-term funding for
farm policy and highway construction and is on the verge of shutting down
the Department of Homeland Security over a separate immigration dispute.
On Sunday, Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Foreign Relations
Committee, noted the difficult task ahead and did not guarantee success.
Were going to be debating an authorization for the use of military force here
soon. This is an important issue. Its important to our homeland security. Its
important to the world. And I hope as a nation well take it on in a sober and
important way over the next several weeks, Corker said on NBCs Meet the
Press. The motivations for drafting and passing an AUMF are diferent in
every corner of Congress. Many Democrats were first elected to Congress
in 2006 and 2008 because of strong anti-war sentiment among the
electorate following struggles in Iraq, and some view this as a chance to
correct the mistakes from the 2002 debate that approved that war. I strongly
believe that we must put strict limits on the use of force to ensure that the
United States does not get entangled in another endless war in the Middle
East, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who won a House seat in 2006, said in
mid-December after voting for an early war resolution. That draft, approved
on a party-line vote, placed strict limits on any use of ground troops and
strong time limitations on the operation, leading Corker and other
Republicans to oppose it. It was never considered on the Senate floor

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

19

U A2: Budget Thumper


TPA is at the top of the agenda Obamas pushing
Needham, The Hill, 1-13-15 (Vicki, Trade tops Ryan's Ways and
Means 2015 agenda, http://thehill.com/policy/finance/229313-ryan-makestrade-a-top-priority, accessed 1-13-15, CMM)
New House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan said Tuesday
that giving President Obama expanded trade powers would be a top
priority this year as the powerful panel seeks an avenue for faster
economic growth. The Wisconsin Republican identified trade promotion
authority (TPA) as the first issue he would tackle. Under TPA, also known as fast-track
authority, Congress gets an up-or-down vote on any trade deal that reaches Capitol Hill. Ryan said TPA
would give Congress the power to set negotiation objectives for trade agreements, get the best deal from
global partners and hold the Obama administration accountable on trade. Building a healthy economy,
that is our mission this year, Ryan said at his first hearing at the helm of the tax-writing committee. Ryan
and other Republicans on the panel said that expanding trade will open more markets to U.S. exports and,
in turn, boost jobs creation and economic growth. "As we all know, 96 percent of the worlds consumers,
they don't live here," Ryan said. "I believe Americans can compete with any country. We just need to give
them a chance," Ryan said. "Break down these barriers and American trade along with American jobs
will take of." Rep. Sandy Levin (Mich.), the top Democrat on the panel, said a 12-nation Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) is at a "vital juncture" and many important issues have yet to be resolved that will
require bipartisan discussions. Levin called the TPP the "most significant negotiation in over 20 years and
urged Ryan to work with Democrats on the details of TPP to ensure that Congress is a full partner in
shaping the massive agreement, which includes nations from Chile to Japan. The president, who met with
House and Senate leaders at the White House on Tuesday, reiterated that there's an opportunity to work

Negotiators working on the TPP have said they hope to


complete the deal early this year. If that happens, it would probably take another six
months or so to get the deal ready for votes in the House and Senate. Republicans on both
sides of the Capitol have expressed support for granting fast-track
power, which boosts the chances of approving any trade deal that
reaches Congress. Rep. Charles Boustany Jr. (R-La.) said during the hearing that TPA would give
together on trade.

U.S. negotiators the "best leverage to move forward" in the talks and that other nations such as Japan
won't put their best ofers on the table until Congress can get it passed. Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio), the new
chairman of the panels trade subcommittee who backs quick passage of fast-track, asked witnesses what
they consider trade's top benefits. In response, Douglas Holtz-Eakin president of the American Action
Forum, said moving forward on fast-track authority now is important because it gives the United States a
chance to write global trade rules that will benefit the U.S. economy. He said opening markets will grow
jobs and help the labor market return to full employment. It means better income and better jobs, not just
more, but peoples jobs will be better as a result, he told the panel. He said the TPP and another major
trade pact dubbed the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have the potential to create
more than 1 million U.S. jobs and boost growth by more than $200 billion. But many Democrats have
expressed frustration with the secrecy of the negotiations and are concerned that trade deals would hurt

Obama administration is stepping up its outreach to


the business community and lawmakers in its effort to bolster
support for trade. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, Small
Business Administration head Maria Contreras-Sweet and deputy U.S.
Trade Representative Robert Holleyman are sitting down on Tuesday with a
wide range of business leaders to discuss how trade policy affects
their businesses at a roundtable organized by the White House Business Council and advocacy
group Business Forward. Under President Obamas leadership, the U.S. is
American workers. Meanwhile, the

spearheading the most significant trade agenda in history , Holleyman


said.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

20

GOP backlash will be constrained and Obama has leverage


on the budget.
Montgomery and Mufson, Washington Post, 2-2-15 (Lori and
Steven, Obama may have new leverage with his $4 trillion budget request,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-may-have-newleverage-with-his-4-trillion-budget-request/2015/02/02/799be914-aaf2-11e4ad71-7b9eba0f87d6_story.html, accessed 2-2-15, CMM)
President Obamas $4 trillion budget request, packed with familiar proposals for new
spending and higher taxes, landed Monday on the doorstep of a Republican
Congress eager to end an era of political gridlock giving Obama
unexpected leverage in coming negotiations . With the economy on
the mend and federal deficits falling, Obama on Monday urged
lawmakers to move beyond the mindless austerity of the past four years.
His budget request seeks fresh investments in education and
infrastructure, as well as new tax breaks for a struggling middle
class. It also would blow through budget caps set for the Pentagon and domestic agencies, urging an
increase of $74 billion next year, or about 7 percent. Those proposals echo the
priorities of many Republican lawmakers, who are torn between
their pledge to shrink the size of government and their desire to
demonstrate an ability to govern. They, too, want to increase
defense spending and replenish a trust fund for highways and other
infrastructure scheduled to run dry in May. That deadline could
force both sides to the negotiating table . Meanwhile, Republican leaders
newly in control of both chambers have vowed to avoid another
politically damaging government shutdown which means finding
common ground with Obama on agency appropriations before the
new fiscal year begins Oct. 1.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

21

U A2: Immigration Thumper


No capital being spent on immigration
Ilya Shapiro, 2-24-15, Huffington Post, Shapiro is a senior fellow in
constitutional studies at the Cato Institute. He filed a brief supporting the
legal challenge to DAPA on behalf of people who support the general thrust of
President Obamas immigration policy,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/02/24/im-animmigrant-and-a-reform-advocate-obamas-executive-actions-are-a-disasterfor-the-cause/ DOA: 2-24-15
Alas,thecurrentpresidenthasneverbeenwillingtospendpoliticalcapitalonthecauseof
immigrationreformunlikehispredecessor,whocameveryclosetoattainingthatelusivegoal.Given
howlittletrustObamanowinspires,itsclearthatthischallengenowfallstohissuccessor.Inthe
meantime,immigrationactivistsaredoingthemselvesnofavorsbyclaimingthatanobviousviolationof
bothadministrativelawandtheseparationofpowershelpsthosewhoneedrealreform.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

22

U A2: Currency
Obama opposes including harsh currency measures PC
solves
FT, Financial Times, 2-10-15 (US Congress threatens trade deals

with currency debate, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fd47fde8-b11e-11e4831b-00144feab7de.html#axzz3S2F37J49, accessed 2-17-15)


We have seen this film before. The US Congress is threatening a trade war to
punish currency manipulators, those it deems to be boosting their trade balance
artificially at the expense of America. Ordinarily, a threat of legislative action like
this folds in the face of a presidential veto. In the past this has resembled a good
cop-bad cop routine. The White House would point to anger on Capitol Hill in order to persuade the likes of

This time, however, the number of


Democrats and Republicans pledging their support for legislation
looks unusually potent. President Barack Obama rightly insists that dealing
with currency devaluation should be separated from matters of
trade. He must hold firm both on the Trade Promotion Authority he seeks from
Congress that enables him to submit fast track deals to an up-or-down vote as well as the
Transpacific Partnership talks that are in their final stages. Both Atlantic and Pacific
China and Japan to curb manipulation against the dollar.

trade deals are at a crossroads. It would be a setback to global growth prospects if they were sabotaged by

Obama should take nothing


for granted. John Boehner, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, has said he
needs at least 50 Democratic votes to pass TPA. Yet 150 of the 188strong Democratic caucus have already signed a petition opposing it .
politics in the very country that initiated them. However, Mr

Unlike on previous rounds, they are joined by a growing number of Republicans who object to anything that
increases Mr Obamas authority. Their motives may be diferent. The left smells a multinational rat that
would gnaw at US labour and environmental standards. The right wishes to poke Mr Obama in the eye.

The main
problem is that such a measure is unworkable. It would slap duties on imports
Combined, they are an unholy alliance capable of wrecking global trade negotiations.

from countries deemed to be manipulators, this being defined as central bank interventions aimed at
providing a currency subsidy. In practice these are hard to prove. One persons devaluation is anothers
monetary policy. It could also rebound on the US. Many, including China, objected to the US quantitative
easing programmes on precisely such grounds. The US is now complaining about the impact of the
European Central Banks QE. Both actions were launched to stimulate demand but also boosted exports.
Deciding which are manipulations is not a precise science, as the IMF has made clear. Shunting
adjudication to the World Trade Organisation would not alter that objection. The second problem is that it
would ruin any chances of a trade deal. The 13-member TPP talks are nearing conclusion. If Congress
inserted a currency clause into the final deal it would prompt Japan to abandon the process and possibly
others. The same applies to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership talks, which are at an
earlier stage. Germanys record export growth is partly helped by the euros recent depreciation. Any
measure that punished the eurozone for its currencys downward drift would only hasten the protectionism
US lawmakers say that they are trying to stop. The dollar is currently riding high because US growth
outpaces most of its partners. If the recovery has returned fewer middle class jobs than hoped to US

In any case, trade is not


the forum with which to address US currency concerns. Mr Obama
shores, it is because of automation, not competitive devaluation.

knows this. So do cooler heads in Congress . Let us hope they prevail.

Obamas hardline stance on currency manipulation


outside of trade negotiations assuages Dems.
Hadar, The Business Times Singapore, 2-18-15 (Leon, former
research fellow with the Cato Institute, contributing editor for The American
Conservative and a regular contributor to Chronicles and Reason and a

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

23

regular blogger on the Huffington Post, Ph.D. from the School of International
Service (SIS) at American University, Obama faces battle over trade deals,
lexis, accessed 2-18-15)
But the White House is now facing a new challenge from several
leading Democrats who are insisting that they would approve the
TPA only if it commits the president to ensure that America's trading
partners are not engaged in so-called "currency manipulation". The
argument is that foreign governments, including future members of the TPP, pursue a strategy of
devaluing their currencies as part of an efort to assist their producers in competing with American
exporters. Indeed, several Democratic senators, joined by a few Republicans, have already introduced a
bill that would give the US government the power to determine whether other countries are manipulating
their currencies, and are demanding that the White House ensure that future trade deals include provisions

Obama and his aides counter that this


isn't a workable idea and that none of its trade partners would agree
to such provisions. Instead, the White House is trying to convince
dealing with currency issues. But President

undecided Democrats that it will remain committed to the principle


of "fair trade". As part of that effort, the Obama administration accused
China last week of providing illegal export subsidies to some of its
industries, including textiles, apparel and footwear, and announced
that it was filing a case against China at the World Trade Organization. Officials
hope that if President Obama sounded "tough" with America's trade
partners, Congress will agree to empower him to negotiate new
deals with them.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

24

IL TPA Key to Other Trade Agreements


EarlBaker,22415,PhiladelphiaInquirer,Keepfreetradeonthefasttrack?,
http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/inquirer/20150224_Keep_free_trade_on_the_fast_track_.htmlDOA:
22515
Whatisneededtopushthesetradeagreementsoverthefinishline?FirstandforemostisTrade
PromotionAuthority(TPA),whichhasbeeninplaceforeverypresidentbetweenFranklinRooseveltand
GeorgeW.Bush.This"fasttrack"powerisbestowedbyCongressonthepresident,allowinghimto
effectivelyfightforU.S.interestsinnegotiations,andthengetasimple"upordown"voteinCongress.
WithoutTPA,mosttradedealswouldgetboggeddowninendlesscongressionalwrangling.InhisStateof
theUnionaddress,PresidentObamarightlycalledonCongresstopassTPAlegislationassoonas
possible.Theneedisurgent:theEuropeanandAsiaPacifictradeagreementscurrentlybeingnegotiated
areatcriticalmoments.TheUnitedStatesneedstolead,andweneedtogiveourpresidentthetradepowers
todoso.Weoftenhearthepublicexpressthedesirefortheparties,andtheexecutivebranchandCongress,
tocooperateinournationalinterest.Hereisachancetodojustthat.

Lack of TPA is the stumbling block to TPP


JournalofCommerce,22315,http://www.joc.com/regulationpolicy/tradeagreements/international
tradeagreements/tpphingesobamagettingtradepromotionauthoritytradeofficialssay_20150223.html
DOA:22415
ThecompletionofalongawaitedPacifictradedealmaystillbeawaysoff,internationalofficialssay,
solongasU.S.legislatorscontinuetodelaykeytradelegislationthatwouldmakethedealpossible.
ChiefnegotiatorsfromnationsonbothsidesofthePacificaresettomeetthesecondweekofMarchin
Hawaiitohashoutdetailsontheproposedfreetradeagreementthatnowincludes11countriesandroughly
onethirdofglobaltrade.AustraliastradeministerhassaidhehopestoseetoanagreementbymidMarch
andofficialsinMexicohavesaidtheiramenabletothetimeline.ButJapansEconomyMinisterAkira
AmarisaidlastweekthatreachinganagreementwasbecomingdifficultasnationswaitfortheU.S.to
passkeytradelegislation,accordingtoReuters.Themajorstumblingblockstatesidehasbeenadebate
overtradepromotionauthority,anegotiatingfasttrackthatwouldstreamlinetradetalks:giving
Congressasimpleyesornovoteontradedeals,whilevestingtheprimarynegotiatingpowersinthehands
ofthepresident.

TPA passage catalyzes quick TPP ratification


Behsudi, Politico, 1-30-15 (Adam, Asia trade talks heat up as fast-

track battle rages, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/asia-trade-talks114782.html, accessed 2-4-15, CMM)


Talks have accelerated on what would be the biggest trade deal in
world history thanks to a Republican Congress that wants to give
President Barack Obama more power to negotiate the agreement and a
group of Asian nations that are closer than ever to making
concessions on consumer goods sold around the globe. Here at the
Asia-Pacific trade talks, a mad scramble is underway among pharmaceutical

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

25

giants, major clothing companies and big agricultural groups who are trying to influence the outcome of
the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, a proposed agreement stretching from Chile to Japan that would
encompass 40 percent of global gross domestic product and about a third of world trade. Theres

a
real air of seriousness about concluding these talks and getting to
the finish line, and everything I saw here this week reaffirms that
the U.S. government is firmly committed to trying to get this done in
the 30 to 60 days or whatever the time period is, said Augustine Tantillo,
president of the National Council of Textile Organizations, which lobbies on behalf of the U.S. textile
industry. Tantillo and other lobbyists and interest groups were busy meeting with officials from Vietnam,
New Zealand and the 10 other countries in the talks, which are taking place at the Sheraton New York
Times Square Hotel. Trade officials could be spotted holding court at large circular tables as lobbyists and
advocates pitched their positions on everything from apparel rules to access to medicines. Dozens of
lobbyists and industry group leaders descended on the hotel this week to roam the halls in an attempt to
push negotiators toward their positions on controversial areas like drug patents and agricultural

trade
officials are taking notice of the new atmosphere in Washington.
Obama is, for the first time, publicly calling for t rade p romotion a uthority
legislation that will ease the passage of the agreement in Congress.
This is throwing talks into a higher gear as we enter the home
protections, which are still unresolved after nearly five years of negotiations. At the same time,

stretch , said Trevor Kincaid, a spokesman for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. While
Congress and the administration are preparing for the end game, so
are the teams. We are making good progress in a number of areas and teams are checking
remaining issues of the list, Kincaid added. Pressure to complete a deal is growing .
At some point next month, lawmakers are preparing to introduce the
trade promotion bill, which has been buoyed by the GOP takeover of
Congress last November that put Senate Republicans only a handful
of votes away from a filibuster-proof majority of support for trade
and widened the margin of trade-friendly Republicans in the House .
The fast-track bill , as the legislation is also known, would expedite the passage of the AsiaPacific deal in Congress by putting it to an up-or-down vote, limiting debate and preventing lawmakers

is expected to give countries in


the deal, which have a combined GDP more than two-thirds greater than that of the NAFTA nations,
more confidence to negotiate without fear of Congress picking the
agreement apart and reversing hard-won gains or concessions a
from ofering amendments to the agreement. Its passage

magical ingredient that will catalyze the talks, moving them into the
endgame. Weve seen a great level of optimism by the United States
since the midterm elections, and U.S. industry stakeholders have
been promoting a highly positive spin about TPA, said Yves Leduc, director of
international trade for the Dairy Farmers of Canada. I think there is recognition that
2015 is the window in which they are working, he said. With the
legislation imminent, the uncertain deadlines that have plagued the
talks are giving way to a more concrete timeline for getting a deal
done in the coming months. Trade ministers could meet as soon as
March, when they would try to reach an agreement in principle
representing what a final deal will look like, sources close to the
negotiations said here this week. The shortened timeline is forcing
action at the negotiating table, prompting the country officials and
interest groups to tip their hands on their true bottom lines. Whatever
the negotiators decide to include in the trade deal could have a ripple efect on entire industries, with the
potential to ofshore more U.S. textile jobs and impact the financial feasibility of drug research and
development, to name two possibilities.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

26

TPP will pass negotiations are wrapping up


Donnan, Financial Times World Trade Editor, 2-2-15 (Shawn, US trade

chief Mike Froman sees prize within reach,


http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cb067d52-a893-11e4-ad0100144feab7de.html#axzz3QeELUp75, accessed 2-2-15, CMM)
If all goes to plan in the coming months, Mike Froman, US trade
representative, is set to land arguably the biggest prize in the
countrys recent economic history. The 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, now
nearing conclusion almost seven years after the US joined
negotiations, is daunting in size and scope and dwarfs the North American
Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico that went into efect two decades ago. Some 40 per cent
of global output will be covered by the TPP, including two of the top three economies in the world (the US
and Japan). It will significantly lower tarifs and other trade barriers around the Pacific Rim on everything
from rice and steaks to cars and chemicals. It will contain enforceable standards on labour and the
environment. It will set new benchmarks by delineating rules for state-owned enterprises in the developing

the TPP is
also already being derided by many inside President Barack Obamas
Democratic party and by the unions it has long relied on for its base .
At a time when Mr Obama is putting a new middle class economics
and the fight against inequality at the centre of his agenda, his push
for new trade agreements causes many on his side of politics to
squirm. Such are the politics of trade in the US. The consensus among many
Democrats with regard to trade agreements and globalisation is that
they have not been kind to the middle class, having contributed to high-paying
world and the digital economy. It will leave rivals in Beijing and Brussels salivating. Yet

manufacturing jobs being shipped ofshore and wages stagnating. Economists such as Joseph Stiglitz and

Even as she has made friendly noises


on trade, Nancy Pelosi, the powerful Democratic leader in the House of Representatives, has
been blunt about the administrations challenge. The burden is on [the White
Paul Krugman have raised doubts about the TPP.

House] to demonstrate that this is good for American pay cheques, she said last week. But, sitting before
the brick hearth in his office, spitting distance from the White House, Mr

Froman is resolute.

Were doing this to protect American jobs and American workers, he tells the Financial Times in an
interview. The TPP is, he argues, a way to open up more markets for US goods and services in fast-growing
Asia and to create high-paying jobs at home. It is also a way to level the playing field for American workers
by including stronger labour and environmental standards that will be enforceable via trade sanctions.
And, with both Canada and Mexico included, to deliver on President Obamas long-ago campaign promise
to renegotiate Nafta, something the progressive wing of the Democratic party has long sought. There are
a lot of people who raise very legitimate concerns about the impact of globalisation on patterns of
production, on jobs, on wages. But I think its also important not to conflate globalisation with trade
agreements, Mr Froman says. Globalisation is a force. It exists. The question is whether we can use trade
agreements to shape it, or whether we want to just sit and be shaped by it. The US, he argues, needs to
be at the forefront of setting the global rules of commerce. Countries like China are engaged in their own
rival bids to create regional blocs that exclude the US and do not include the sort of rules the US is
pursuing on labour, intellectual property or the internet. Ceding ground to such rivals has got to be worse

Negotiators from
the US, Japan and the 10 other countries in the TPP are now involved
in almost constant discussions. Chief negotiators meeting in New
York last week continued to make progress on important issues.
Teams from the US and Japan will be in Washington again this week
working on their own bilateral deal focused on agricultural and auto
products. Obstacles clearly remain and negotiations remain tough. But a TPP
deal is a small number of months away, Mr Froman forecast during
a Senate hearing last week. The US has told its partners within the
TPP that it wants to complete negotiations before the summer so
for American workers and the American middle class than even the status quo.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

27

that an agreement can be put to Congress by the end of 2015 and


before the 2016 presidential campaign heats up. Amid pitched
partisan battles on other issues, importantly the new Republican
leadership in Congress says it wants to give Mr Obama the fasttrack authority he needs to close the TPP and, eventually, a parallel negotiation
with the EU. Business groups, Republicans and the administration all
believe a healthy majority in Congress will back a vote on what is
formally called Trade Promotion Authority. Asked whether he expects such a
vote to succeed, Mr Froman answers simply with a confident Yes.
The consensus in Washington is that Congress is likely to vote on
fast-track authority within two-three months and that a TPP deal will
be closed shortly thereafter. Mike Fromans big moment the USs big
trade moment may well be not very far away.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

28

IL PC Key
Obamas personal involvement is key to TPA empirics
prove
Kennedy, leads George Washington University's Graduate School of
Political Management and Chairman of the Economic Club of Minnesota, 114-15 (Mark, served three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives and

was Senior Vice President and Treasurer of Federated Department Stores, Is


a Major Trade Deal the Way for Obama to Secure His Legacy?,
https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/14/is-a-major-trade-deal-the-way-forobama-to-secure-his-legacy/, accessed 1-15-15, CMM)
Last month President Barack Obama addressed his plans for expanding trade
before a group of corporate leaders, complaining, Theres a
narrative there that makes for some tough politics . While businesses must
constantly make the case for how trade benefits Americas middle class, the pivotal voice will
be President Obamas . It is imperative that he extols the benefits of
his trade initiatives in next weeks State of the Union address (SOTU). The Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) in Asia and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the European
Union are central to the presidents plan to strengthen the United States ties with each region and to
propel economic growth in America and globally. Trade momentum could also drive completion of the

Our negotiating partners are not


going to put their final offer on the table unless they know the
president can complete the deal. This requires passing Trade Promotion
Authority (TPA), also called Fast Track, to allow the president to submit trade bills for an up or down
vote without amendments that could kill the deal. Trade is one of the most likely areas
where the president and congressional Republicans can work
together. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said in regards to TPA that he
wants to get it done, get it done right, and get it done soon. Yet history shows that a
World Trade Organizations (WTO) Doha Round.

president cannot outsource the job of promoting trade to a


supportive committee chairman or his capable U.S. trade
representative . President Obama must personally actively engage on
the issue in order to have any chance for success. This is trades
hour. It is Obamas best chance to act in tandem with Congress . Trade

can provide the economic boost necessary to ofset the economic headwinds we still face. In last years
SOTU address, President Obama devoted a paragraph to trade that was more descriptive than persuasive.
The president should devote more than a paragraph to trade in this years SOTU and he needs to be

If he takes the initiative, President Obama can join a long


list of Democratic presidents that have spent political capital to
support advances in trade. Grover Cleveland called on Congress in
1885 to reduce high protective tariffs. Told that he had given Republicans an efective
very persuasive.

issue for the campaign of 1888, he retorted, What is the use of being elected or re-elected unless you
stand for something? He did lose in 1888, but came back four years later. Woodrow

Wilson called

a special session in 1913, addressing Congress personally for the first time since President John
Adams, to consider tariff reform. The Underwood-Simmons Act achieved the most significant
reductions in rates since the Civil War. Franklin D. Roosevelt secured passage of the
predecessor of TPA in 1934 and concluded 19 trade agreements. Harry Truman led the
effort to launch the General Agreement on Trade (GATT) in 1947, the predecessor of todays
WTO, fighting opposition by a Republican Congress. He approved the first three rounds of global trade

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics
agreements under GATT, substantially reducing trade barriers. John F.
Economic isolation and political leadership are wholly incompatible

29
Kennedy in 1962, asserting,
approved the GATT

Dillon Round that President Jimmy Carter described as one of the most highly publicized and wellknown achievements of the Kennedy administration. The GATTs subsequent Kennedy Round was named
in his honor. Lyndon Johnson affirmed during his 1964 inaugural address, For our ultimate goal is a world
in which all men, goods, and ideas can freely move across every border and every boundary. We must
expand world trade. We are willing to give our trading partners competitive access to our market, asking
only that they do the same for us. The GATTs Kennedy Round was approved during his administration.
Jimmy Carter signed in 1979 the agreement implementing the GATT Tokyo Round that he described as
perhaps the most important and far-reaching piece of trade legislation in the history of the United States.
Bill Clinton signed the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993. He made it a make-or-break issue
for his presidency and rounded up former presidents, secretaries of state and even former chairmen of
the Joint Chiefs of Staf to support the agreement. The GATT Uruguay Round of global trade negotiations
was approved during his tenure and the GATT was reenergized as the WTO. The Obama administration has
passed three bi-lateral trade agreements that were negotiated by the administration of President George
W. Bush. Completing TPA, TPP, TTIP, and the Doha Round (or some combination of them) would give
Obama major trade accomplishments that he could truly own .

Unless he wants to stand


out as the only Democratic president in modern times not to break
down trade barriers, President Obama needs to step forward to make
clear how trade spurs economic growth, expands jobs, and raises the
incomes of the middle class.

PC is key to TPA
Inside U.S. Trade, 8-2-13 (Obama Asks For Fast-Track Authority,
Froman Defers To Congress On Bill, lexis, accessed 9-9-13, CMM)
A Senate Republican aide largely endorsed Froman's vision of having
Congress take the lead on drafting a TPA bill, while arguing that the
administration needs to expend political capital to deliver
Democratic votes. According to the aide, Senate Democrats have to
provide a certain number of votes for such a bill and that requires
the administration to weigh in. "Regardless of [Republicans']
persuasive ability, I don't know that we're going to be able to bring
those folks on board," he said. Senate Finance Committee Ranking
Member Orrin Hatch (R-UT) made the same argument in a July 30
speech at a trade event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute. He
said his efforts to renew TPA in 2011 failed largely due to a lack of
Democratic support. "To me, that shows that the administration must
actively engage within the Democratic caucus if we have any
chance of seeing TPA succeed ," he said. Without the president's
"active engagement and support," a fast-track bill cannot succeed ,
he said.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

30

Impact Open Internet


TPA protects the open Internet
Ambassador Daniel A. Sepulveda, 2-11-15
Deputy Assistant Secretary and U.S. Coordinator for International
Communications and Information Policy, Bureau of Economic and Business
Afairs U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Association of American Chambers of
Commerce in Latin America, Trade Promotion and the Fight to Preserve the
Open Internet
http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/rm/2015/237436.htm DOA: 2-24-15
Three billion people are connected to the Internet today. And trillions
of devices are set to join them in the Internet of Things. Together, the
connectivity of people and machines is enabling economic and social
development around the world on a revolutionary scale.
But it will take open markets, the cooperation of leaders around the
world, the participation of a vibrant and diverse range of stakeholders, and
strong trade agreements, with language preserving the free flow of
information, to protect the Internets potential as the worlds engine
for future growth, both at home and abroad.
As the number of Internet users worldwide has ballooned from 2 to 3
billion, the increase in Internet use creates significant economic
potential. The Obama Administration is working to unlock the
promise of e-commerce, keep the Internet free and open, promote
competitive access for telecommunications suppliers, and set digital
trade rules-of-the-road by negotiating new trade agreements. Trade
Promotion Authority legislation and the pending trade agreements we
expect Congress to consider over the coming months and years will
provide that kind of protection. These agreements aim to ensure
that the free flow of information and data are the default setting for
nations. This will preserve the architecture that has empowered the
Internet and global communications to fuel economic growth at
home and abroad. It is in our interest, across parties and ideology, to
ensure we move forward and approve TPA and the pending agreements for
many reasons, but promoting the preservation and growth of global
communications and the open Internet is one of the strongest. vSenator Ron
Wyden, the ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee, has made the
argument well, stating, "Americas trade negotiating objectives must reflect
the fact that the Internet represents the shipping lane for 21st Century goods
and services Trade in digital goods and services is growing and driving
economic growth and job creation all around the country. U.S digital exports
are beating imports by large margins, but outdated trade rules threaten this
growth by providing opportunities for protectionist policies overseas. The U.S.
has the opportunity to establish new trade rules that preserve the Internet as
a platform to share ideas and for expanding commerce..." Senator Wyden is
absolutely correct. Our pending agreements with nations in the Pacific
community will establish rules for the preservation of those virtual
shipping lanes as enablers of the transport of services and ideas,

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

31

allowing startups and the voices of everyday people to challenge


incumbent power in markets and ideas. If we are successful, the
partnership of nations across the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Trans-Atlantic
Trade and Investment Partnership regions coming behind agreements to
preserve the free flow of information will serve as a powerful counterweight
to authoritarian governments around the globe that have demonstrated a
clear willingness to interfere with open markets and an open Internet. And
make no mistake about it, if we do not seize every opportunity at our disposal
to win commitments to an open, global Internet, we risk letting others set the
rules of the road.
Authoritarian regimes view the Internets openness as a threatening
and destabilizing influence. The Russian government, just last month,
pressured social media companies to block access to pages used to organize
peaceful political protests. In China, authorities have blocked Gmail and
Googles search engine. In addition to ongoing and systematic
efforts to control content and punish Chinese citizens who run afoul
of political sensitivities, such measures are an effort to further
diminish the Chinese peoples access to information, while
effectively favoring Chinese Internet companies by blocking other
providers from accessing its market. And we know they are urging
others to take similar action. These trade barriers harm commerce
and slow economic growth, and they produce socially oppressive
policies that inhibit freedom.vThe rules of the road for commerce, and
Internet-enabled trade and e-commerce, are up for grabs in Asia. Were
working harder than ever to bring home trade agreements that will unlock
opportunities by eliminating barriers to U.S. exports, trade, and investment
while raising labor, environment, and other important standards across the
board. Right now, China and others are negotiating their own trade
agreements and seeking to influence the rules of commerce in the region and
beyond. These trade agreements fail to meet the high standards that we
strive for in our free trade agreements, including protection for workers
rights and the environment. And they dont protect intellectual property
rights or maintain a free and open Internet. This will put our workers and our
businesses at a disadvantage. We know that both old and new American
businesses, small and large alike, are dependent on the global Internet as the
enabler of access to previously unreachable consumers. In the U.S. alone,
American Internet companies and their global community of users contribute
over $141 billion in annual revenue to the overall U.S. GDP, simultaneously
employing 6.6 million people. And the Internet is not simply about the World
Wide Web, it is the communications platform for managing global supply
chains, distributing services, and acquiring the market information necessary
to succeed anywhere. Many countries no longer primarily produce products.
Rather, businesses produce product components and provide services, many
of which are delivered digitally. In order to remain competitive globally and
promote the capacity of businesses to innovate, the United States and our
partners in the Western Hemisphere must build the Americas into a shared,
digitally connected, integrated platform for global success. By working with
our trade partners in Latin America and Asia to conclude the Trans-Pacific
Partnership we are advancing this vision and making it a reality. We will set
the standards with twenty-first century trade agreements. We know that not

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

32

everyone is convinced of the merits of open markets. And to win their hearts
and minds, we have to demonstrate and communicate how these two values
open markets and the open Internet - are interconnected. And we have to
show that Trade Promotion Authority and our agreements embrace the values
that underpin the Internet today. As Ambassador Froman has said, Trade,
done right, is part of the solution, not part of the problem. And, because it is
true, our progressive friends should recognize that the fight for open markets
is the position most consistent with our progressive tradition and values.
It was Woodrow Wilson who said, The program of the world's peace,
therefore, is our program; and that program, the only possible program, as
we see it, is this and he listed his fourteen points. Among them was number
three: The removal, so far as possible, of all economic barriers and the
establishment of an equality of trade conditions among all the nations
consenting to the peace and associating themselves for its maintenance.
It was Franklin Roosevelt who asked the New Deal Congress for the first grant
of trade negotiating authority.
In his remarks at the signing of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, it was JFK
who said, Increased economic activity resulting from increased trade will
provide more job opportunities for our workers. Our industry, our agriculture,
our mining will benefit from increased export opportunities as other nations
agree to lower their tarifs. Increased exports and imports will benefit our
ports, steamship lines, and airlines as they handle an increased amount of
trade. Lowering of our tarifs will provide an increased flow of goods for our
American consumers. Our industries will be stimulated by increased export
opportunities and by freer competition with the industries of other nations for
an even greater efort to develop an efficient, economic, and productive
system. The results can bring a dynamic new era of growth.
And it is consistent with the sentiments of these giants in our tradition, our
progressive tradition, that President Obama most recently stated, Twentyfirst century businesses, including small businesses, need to sell more
American products overseas. Today, our businesses export more than ever,
and exporters tend to pay their workers higher wages. But as we speak,
China wants to write the rules for the worlds fastest-growing region. That
would put our workers and our businesses at a disadvantage. Why would we
let that happen? We should write those rules. We should level the playing
field. Thats why Im asking both parties to give me trade promotion authority
to protect American workers, with strong new trade deals from Asia to Europe
that arent just free, but are also fair. Its the right thing to do.
Friends, we have both a political and economic interest in promoting open
markets and an open Internet. Preservation of these ideals is and should
remain a bipartisan, and broadly held goal. It is critical to our future and
contained within the language we are asking Congress to approve.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

33

Impact Russia
TPA is key to deter Russia and China
Brown, dean of the Elliott School of International Afairs at the George
Washington University, and Oudraat, president of Women In International
Security, 2-6-15 (Michael and Chantal de Jonge, Trade, power and
opportunity, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkeycage/wp/2015/02/06/trade-partnerships-are-an-opportunity-not-to-bemissed/, accessed 2-6-15, CMM)
In his State of the Union address on Jan. 20, President Obama asked Congress to give
him trade promotion authority for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations
with 11 countries in the Asia-Pacific and the Americas as well as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment
Partnership (TTIP) talks with the 28 members of the European Union. This authority would
allow the president to submit trade agreements to Congress for upor-down votes, which would improve the chances for success. It was
wise for Obama to make this a prominent presidential priority. The
countries participating in the TPP and TTIP talks account for
approximately half of global trade and two-thirds of the global
economy. If implemented, the TPP would add an estimated $224 billion and
TTIP could add another $133 billion to the global economy annually
an overall boost of more than 0.3 percent in global GDP. These
agreements would also generate substantial balance of power and
strategic benefits. These non-economic benefits cant be quantified, so they havent received
much attention in policy discussions, but they are tremendously important. First, Russian
aggression is an unpleasant balance of power problem that is
unlikely to go away any time soon. TTIP isnt a panacea, but it would
strengthen the Wests balance of power position. It would help
European economies grow, provide more opportunities for European
companies to turn from Russia to the United States and enhance the
prospects for further trans-Atlantic economic policy coordination.
The United States and its European allies need to prepare for more
rounds of economic sanctions against Russia in the near term, and
they have to build a stronger, more united economic front for the
long haul. Second, turning to the Pacific, the rise of China is the great balance
of power challenge of our time. The TPP isnt a Pacific panacea, but it is an
important part of the equation. It would reinforce the United States
position in the region and provide strategic reassurance to the many
Asia-Pacific countries that worry about Chinas rise that is, everyone except
North Korea. It would be a new, strong multilateral accord in a region
that very much needs more multilateral frameworks. These would be
stability-enhancing developments. Third, TPP and TTIP pacts would
strengthen Obamas personal credibility and the United States
international leadership position. Obamas failure to enforce his red line on the use of
chemical weapons by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has done real damage to his

Effective presidential leadership


in these trade negotiations would help to restore Obamas
international credibility. A TPP agreement would also solidify the
economic pillar of Obamas pivot to Asia a geostrategic priority.
credibility in the Middle East, Asia and around the world.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

34

effective U.S. leadership on TPP and TTIP would enhance


the United States standing in an era when many countries need
strategic reassurance and want U.S. engagement. Fourth and last,
economic strength is one of the fundamentals of national and
international power. This has been true for hundreds of years, and it
might apply with even more force today, given the emergence of a
truly global economy. In a world where national power and balance
of power considerations are still important where some states are failing and
others are flailing it is essential for the United States and its allies to
strengthen their economic fundamentals and economic ties. TPP and
TTIP agreements would help. The year ahead will be a window of
opportunity for concluding the TPP and TTIP negotiations. Obama is
in his final years in office, which gives him the political immunity he
will need to stand up to domestic opponents of trade pacts mainly in his
More generally,

own Democratic party. The Republican majorities in both houses of Congress have pro-trade inclinations
that, hopefully, will lead to approval of trade promotion authority. But in 2016, electoral politics will take
over in the United States and the prospects for trade deals will dim. Americans tend to be preoccupied with
U.S. politics, but domestic politics in other key countries are also well-aligned for trade deals in 2015. In
Japan, Shinzo Abe won re-election as prime minister in December 2014. This is the best position he is likely
to have to stand up to Japans domestic agricultural interests and conclude a trade agreement. In
Germany, Angela Merkel won reelection as chancellor in September 2013. As a popular leader of the
country with Europes largest economy, she is well-positioned to lead the way toward a TTIP agreement.

TPP and TTIP agreements would give Japan and Europe, respectively,
much-needed economic boosts. It is important for leaders on both
sides of the Pacific and the Atlantic to seize this moment. The
politics are as well-aligned as they can be for success in 2015, but
this fortuitous confluence wont last.

Russian expansion causes nuclear war


Fisher 14Max, Max Fisher is a former writer and editor at The Atlantic.

Threats to Americans, ranked (by actual threat instead of media hype),


http://www.vox.com/2014/10/17/6988377/threats-to-americans-ranked-ebolaisis-russia-furniture
5) World War III breaking out in the Baltics Threat to Americans: No one
wants a global thermo-nuclear war between the West and Russia,
including Vladimir Putin. But his meddling in Baltic NATO countries like Estonia, which the
US and Western Europe are committed to defend, could inadvertently trigger what we
avoided throughout the Cold War: open military conflict between the
major nuclear powers. Both Putin and President Obama have threatened as much to try to
scare one another out of acting aggressively. Worst-case scenario: Russia does in Estonia
what it did in Ukraine, that snowballs into war between Russia and
the US/NATO, and the nukes start falling. How freaked out should you be: To be very
clear: the odds of this happening are extremely low. But the danger is real enough that
everyone is taking it seriously (Russia is holding major nuclear
exercises). If it did happen, it would be many, many times worse than every other item on this list
combined.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

35

Impact Asia War


Pivot solves asia war that escalates
Neuman 11/16/12 (Scott, works as a Digital News writer and editor, handling breaking news and
feature stories for NPR.org. He spent the previous two years as the international desk editor at the AP,
while living in New York. Neuman was part of the team that earned the Pulitzer Prize awarded to The Wall
Street Journal for overall coverage of 9/11 and the aftermath. A graduate from Purdue University, Neuman
earned a Bachelor's degree in communications and electronic journalism, Why Obama Put Asia On The
Agenda Now http://www.npr.org/2012/11/16/165302731/why-obama-put-asia-on-the-agenda-now)

China is the dominant power in Asia and


that its economic, military and political power is rapidly growing. Its economic
tentacles have turned much of the region into an outsourcing hub for its
own shop floors, with Southeast Asia, for example, becoming a major source of computer chips
and hard drives. At the same time, Beijing has stepped up its muscle-flexing over
long-standing claims in the South China Sea and elsewhere sending
There is no getting around the fact that

patrol vessels to the Senkaku Islands, claimed by both Japan and China, and the Scarborough Shoals,
disputed territory with the Philippines.

"The U.S. sees this pivot toward Asia as a way

to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region," says Suzanne


DiMaggio, vice president of Global Policy Programs at the Asia
Society. "I think the U.S. looks to Asia and sees China's fingerprints
everywhere." Among other things, providing a counterbalance to China
means strengthening military ties and commitments in the region.
Earlier this year, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said the U.S. would increase the number and size of its
military exercises in the Pacific. By 2020, he said, the U.S. Navy would shift the bulk of its fleet to the

in a larger diplomatic sense, the goal


is to rein in Beijing and promote regional stability without
Pacific, including six carrier battle groups. But

provoking the ire of a resurgent China , which sees itself as the logical lead power in
Asia. This so-called pivot to Asia has been in motion since the first days of the Obama administration, said
John Ciorciari of the University of Michigan's Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy. "President

Obama ... sees this as a foreign policy legacy for his administration.
It speaks to the big role that the U.S. sees for itself in Asia, which is
to be there for the long term." Dean Cheng, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation's
Asia Studies Center, says Asia is important because it could easily become a
region of major instability. "You have multiple nuclear powers:
China, Russia, North Korea," he says. "So, with any outbreak of
hostilities, given the economic importance of the region, it will inevitably affect the
American economy and the global economy." How does Southeast Asia fit into
the grand strategy? "Throughout the region, you have small countries that have
relatively robust ties to China, but as small powers, they don't want
to be too beholden to their great neighbor to the north," Ciorciari says.
"The president's trip, I think, is a very conscious attempt to take
advantage of that opportunity to build its relationships."

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

36

Impact Asia
TPP determines Asia stability
Mireya Solis, Brookings Institute/ 4/16/14, Reassurance at the Heart of the
Obama-Abe Summit , www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2014/04/16japan-obama-abe-summit-solis
The upcoming summit meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister
Abe offers a good opportunity to inject a healthy dose of
reassurance to allay two fundamental concerns that worry not only the United States
and Japan but also many other countries in the region: 1) the ability of the United
States to successfully execute its policy of rebalancing towards Asia, and 2)
Japans ability to stay the course on a pragmatic foreign policy that
avoids forays into historical revisionism and attaches the utmost priority to the task
of economic revitalization through ambitious structural reforms. These are no small feats and there are
limits to what a leaders summit can achieve, but the best way to get there is through actual deliverables.
The economic agendain particular the bilateral market access talks in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

An
agreement in principle in the trade negotiations would boost confidence in the
American commitment to remain a Pacific power and the Japanese
resolve to tackle the sources of its economic stagnation and remain
an influential actor in international affairs. There are of course other areas of
is the obvious candidate for both governments to aim for for a significant breakthrough.

promising bilateral cooperation, such as the drafting of new guidelines for defense cooperation, but these

Trade, therefore, looms large in the success


TPP agenda opens a new chapter in

will not be ready by the time of the leaders meeting.


of the Obama-Abe summit. The key here is that the

U.S.-Japan relationsnot only because of the unprecedented ambition in the economic sphere
(across the board tarif reductions, tackling of non-tarif barriers, and drafting new rules of trade and

outcome of the TPP talks has


emerged as a focal point in solving the foreign policy credibility
problems that both countries face. Trade can no longer be considered low politics
investment for the Asia-Pacific), but also because the

when it figures so prominently in the final outcome of a bilateral summit meeting with important
ramifications for core priorities in each countrys foreign policy: the American rebalance and Japans
economic rebirth. This coming Obama-Abe meeting is a fresh and eloquent reminder of the growing
importance of geo-economics in world afairs. Trade as the politics of credibility The Trans-Pacific
Partnership is an integral pillar of the rebalance because it ofers a richer strategy of U.S. engagement with
the region, one that captures the deep and multi-dimensional ties in U.S.-Asia relations. The TPP
guarantees that the American rebalance will not be perceived as a narrowly defined shift in military

it is the TPP leg of the rebalance that can


accomplish the most important task of all: to reassure Asian nations
that the United States is not interested in fueling a Cold War in Asia by
isolating its most important security competitor in the region. At the core of the American
TPP policy lies an inducementnot containmentstrategy towards China.
strategy. But more importantly,

The bet is that China, working of its own volition and setting its own pace, will find the TPP a useful lever to
accomplish the set of ambitious economic reforms that it admits are essential to re-launch its development
model. Critics of the rebalance toward Asia point to the lack of military resources (both because of the
need to address pressing crises in other regions of the world and because of the budgetary cuts imposed
through the sequester) and the weakening efect of polarized domestic politics (for example, the
government shutdown that prevented President Obama from attending the APEC summit last October) as

question American resolve


at this
critical juncture the U.S. government can ill afford to let the TPP
talks stall. Securing a market access deal with Japan and passing trade promotion authority will be
indicators of the rhetorical nature of the rebalance.

They

even

to enforce its own red lines in Syria or prevent further Russian encroachments in Ukraine. Hence,

two essential tasks in rescuing the Asian rebalance. Prime Minister Abe received high marks at home and
abroad when he emphasized economic revitalization as the central priority of his administration and hinted

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

37

at a pragmatic approach to foreign policy. However, his visit to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine last
December and hints about possibly revising the Kono statement (which ofered remorse for the plight of
comfort women) caused concern for alliance managers on both sides of the Pacific. More recent
statements from the Abe administration that the war apologies will stay in place are certainly a positive
development, although the task of historical reconciliation is still a long way of. However, the Abe
government should also redouble eforts in displaying its resolve to tackle the politically painful structural
reforms that will determine the ultimate success of the economic revitalization strategypopularly known
as Abenomics. For Japan to be back success in the economic front is the first priority. But when Japan
doggedly plays defense in agricultural liberalization, it undermines confidence in its ability to carry out
bold reforms. In order to grasp the importance of the TPP in the bilateral and regional agenda, we must
also avoid overselling it. The TPP will do nothing to boost the credibility of Americas military deterrence in
the region, will not help in healing the wounds of history, and will not be the main driver in many of the
structural reforms that Japan needs to implement (for instance, in the labor market and health care). But it

TPP is an integral component of the American policy


of rebalancing towards Asia, and Japans ability to exert
international leadership by arresting the narrative of economic decline. A bilateral
is certainly true that the

understanding on tarif liberalization would be a significant deliverable for this summit meeting and would
also help reenergize the broader TPP talks. American and Japanese trade negotiators have engaged in

talks are important in their


hold a larger meaning in reassuring us that the United
States will remain a fully engaged Pacific power and that Japan will leave
marathon negotiations, but we are running out of time. The market access
own right, but they

economic stagnation behind.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

38

Impact -- A2: No Asian War


Cronin, Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the AsiaPacific Security Program at the Center for a New American
Security, and Sullivan, Research Intern in the Asia-Pacific
Security Program at CNAS, 13 (Patrick and Alexander, 5-3-13,
America and the South China Sea Challenge,
http://thediplomat.com/2013/05/america-and-the-south-china-sea-challenge/?
allpages=yes, accessed 1-22-14)
Finally, any regional strategy must incorporate economic engagement ,
reflecting the continued importance East Asian countries place on growth and increasing prosperity. Key
economic initiatives should include: - Completing Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations
this year. With the support of the new Abe government in Japan, TPP has a real shot at making serious

Concluding initial negotiations on TPP would


demonstrate the American determination and commitment to
advance regional prosperity through open and rules-based trade,
the regions main shared interest. It would also, over time, create more
connectivity between and among the U.S. and most of the South
China Sea claimants, taking pressure off military issues. - Balance
progress over the next year or so.

development disparities within ASEAN. The U.S. should use economic initiatives such as the U.S.-ASEAN
Enhanced Economic Engagement (E3) program announced last fall, as well as the Lower Mekong Initiative,
to build economic capacity in countries like Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. Bringing these
countries closer to the standards set by more advanced ASEAN economies such as Singapore and
Indonesia will help ASEAN stay on track to hit its goal of instituting an ASEAN Economic Community by
2015. Achieving that pledge will allow ASEAN to preserve a relatively cohesive voice on regional issues and

As Asia assumes its role as the engine of global economic


growth, the risk to the entire world of destabilizing conflict
increases daily, and nowhere will that risk be greater in the next ten
years than in the South China Sea. As a leading power in Asia, the
United States must make the hard choices and put forth the concerted
effort necessary to ensure that the South China Sea remains
peaceful in 2013 and beyond, and to construct durable institutions
to address further disputes.
avoid fracturing.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

39

Impact Global Free Trade


TPA is key to resurrecting the global trade agenda
Suominen, Adjunct Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies, 12-29-14 (Kati, Founder and CEO of two companies: TradeUp, a

new financing platform for export-driven U.S. small and mid-size companies,
and Nextrade Group, LLC, a consulting firm on leading-edge issues in world
trade, chair a 25-member global expert commission on regional trade
agreements for the E15 Initiative of the International Center for Trade and
Sustainable Development and the World Economic Forum, and ideated the
RTA Exchange, a new clearing house on regional trade agreements that is
sponsored by the Inter-American Development Bank, Asian Development
Bank, and ICTSD, and that Nextrade Group is building to a Beta version by
mid-2014, Will Globalization Be Obamas Greatest Foreign Policy Legacy?,
https://katisuominen.wordpress.com/2014/12/29/will-globalization-beobamas-greatest-foreign-policy-legacy/, accessed 1-13-15)
Battered by crises and maligned by critics, globalization is regaining
momentum. And this is good news for Americas global leadership .
Negotiations for an ambitious Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal involving
a dozen countries from Asia and the Americas are quietly nearing
the finishing line. Another historic agreement, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment
Partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the European Union,
also shows signs of becoming a reality. Not long ago, the idea that two landmark
U.S.-centered trade deals could be the pillars of President Obamas foreign policy legacy would have
seemed laughable. As a presidential candidate in 2008, Obama was a trade skeptic, painting deals like
NAFTA as job-killers, which played well with unions weary of import surges from China. Once in office,
however, Obama warmed to trade expansion as presidents tend to do, given the dependence of the
American economy and jobs on exports and global supply chains. In 2010, Obama issued a call to double
U.S. exports, with trade deals forming part of the packageonly now they were described as partnerships
that would open new markets to American businesses big and small, rather than free trade agreements

As an economist
who has for years worked to advance free trade in both the public
and private sector, I could not be more elated by the prospect that
these major deals now look achievable. For more than a decade,
ambitious global efforts to liberalize cross-border trade and
investment had stalled. The promise of the Uruguay Round of
negotiations, which in 1994 produced the crown jewel of the global
trading system, the World Trade Organization, appeared to have been lost.
The Doha Roundthe multilateral talks that were supposed to expand on the Uruguay Rounds
gainshave been going on for 13 years, with few tangible results because
associated, even if falsely, in the publics mind with ofshoring and job losses.

of disagreements between emerging markets such as Brazil and India (who resist opening their markets to
foreign manufactured products and services) and the U.S. and Europe, which are reluctant to free their

With any one of the WTOs 160 member nations able to


scuttle any global agreement, countries have turned to regional
trade agreements or country-to-country pacts as alternatives. Since
the United States, Canada, and Mexico launched the North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA)
two decades ago, no fewer than 400 trade deals have been concluded or
are under negotiation, coupling such players as Chile and China, Japan and Mexico, and the
agricultural markets.

United States and Singapore, to name a few. Such deals are easier to get done than a universal WTO deal.

They also tend to go deeper than WTO efforts, pioneering in the


regulation of such matters as e-commerce, intellectual property, and

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

40

state-owned enterprises. But for globalizing companies, they also create tremendous new
complexitya patchwork of rules and standards that difer from one market to the next. The two
trans-oceanic pacts that would link us to Asia and Europe, though,
would resurrect the momentum for a more comprehensive global
agreement. They would also deliver considerable economic benefits.
will boost U.S. annual gains by $77 billion, and
Japans by $104 billion. The TTIP deal, by integrating markets in the U.S. and the EU, would
generate $130 billion annually in economic gains for the U nited States,
The Trans-Pacific deal (TPP)

and $162 billion for Europe. As such, it is estimated that TTIP will boost U.S. household incomes by $865
annually and create 750,000 new U.S. jobs, while TPP would generate about $1,230 per household by
2025a great boost without a dime of deficit spending, and a strong bonus on top of the $10,000 annual

These trade
deals, by locking in deeper access for American interests in overseas
markets, could give U.S. companies the confidence needed to unlock
their considerable cash holdings and invest in the production of
more export goods and the hiring of more U.S. workers. While big business
income gains American households havealready scored due to post-war trade opening.

spearheads the trade lobby, Main Street small businesses stand to gain from greater access to foreign

These new
trans-oceanic deals, if achieved, would also make it costlier for nations
who have opposed lowering barriers to stay their obstructionist
course. The most cantankerous player in the global trading system, India, risks being left out. Ever
markets and the harmonizing of product standards and regulations across borders.

pragmatic, China has become interested in joining TPP, in part as a means of counteracting the countrys
economic slowdown and driving reforms of inefficient state-owned enterprises. In our hemisphere, Brazil
has not been interested in joining trade agreements, seeking leadership instead of its own dysfunctional
Mercosur alternative. Its strategy stands in stark contrast to that of Mexico, which has forged free trade
deals with partners covering some 90 percent of its trade, such as North America, the EU, and Japan. As a
result, Mexico has emerged as a global manufacturing hub and anchor of Latin Americas Pacific Alliance
bloc, which includes the more market-oriented nations of Colombia, Peru, and Chile. Brazils industrial
lobbies, once champions of protectionist policies, now worry about the efect of high tarifs and about
being left out of global supply chains, and have broken with the government to call for a reset of the
nations trade policy With the Ukraine crisis, the Israeli-Palestine imbroglio, and our messy departure from
Iraq and Afghanistan all stunting Obamas foreign policy achievements, the once stalemated issue of trade
expansion now looks far more doable and desirable on the Obama administrations menu of possible

the White House is facing complicated talks with


Congress over the trade promotion authority (TPA) needed to successfully
negotiate a trade deal and get it through Congress . Such a
legislative license to jumpstart globalization will likely be opposed ,
much like the recent budget agreement was in Washington, by both the left wing of the
Democratic Party and the Tea Party right within the Republican Party. This may
be yet another reason that a trade legacy looks appealing to
President Obama: It will take a purple coalition to do the right thing .
legacy options. To be sure,

protectionist policies inhibit innovation in green tech


Atkinson 2012 Robert D. Atkinson, PhD, is President of the Information Technology and
Innovation Foundation, a Washington, DC-based technology policy think tank, Green Mercantilism Is a
Threat to the Clean Energy Economy, June 29th 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-d-atkinsonphd/green-mercantilism-is-a-t_b_1638788.html

the United States is in a race with other countries for


leadership of the rapidly growing clean energy economy. Fueled by the potential for
As you read this,

economic growth and job creation, countries are aggressively trying to build competitive advantage in the

But this fierce competition is


being undermined by countries that don't want to play by the rules
of global trade. These Green Mercantilists are adopting policies that
give them and their domestic firms an unfair advantage, which not
development and production of low-carbon technologies.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

41

only harms the United States, but also limits global clean energy
innovation. Green mercantilist policies are no diferent than mercantilism in other high-wage,
innovation-based traded sectors and include the use of unfair trade practices like import tarifs, forced
technology transfer, IP theft, currency manipulation, export dumping, unfair subsidies and barriers to
foreign investment. To name a few examples: South Korea requires all solar panels to be certified before
being sold, yet its standard efectively excludes thin-film solar PV designs largely exported by the United
States, shutting those products out of the market. China has made forced technology transfer a
prerequisite for foreign firms to gain market access in its "New Energy Vehicles" strategy to create a
domestic electric vehicle industry. Ukraine, Italy, India, Ontario, China and Brazil all utilize domestic
content requirements to provide preferential treatment to domestic firms and discriminate against foreign

The rise in green mercantilism is troubling because it hurts


countries that largely implement "good" innovation policies within
the spirit and letter of the law of the World Trade Organization . For an
competitors.

example, look no further than the United States. After innovating the lion's share of energy technologies
during the last century, the United States has witnessed most of these industries move and grow abroad.
Most recently, U.S. first-generation solar PV export market share fell from 30% to 7% in under a decade
while China's grew from 2% to 55%. This shift to China occurred not because of technological merit, but

many countries are increasingly using


green mercantilist practices to quickly capture similar growth and
exports in wind turbines, biofuels, energy storage, and electric vehicles. But while the economic
unfairness of green mercantilism is important to consider, of perhaps greater concern is that it
is the covert enemy of efforts to address climate change and meet
growing energy needs. It inhibits the clean energy innovations that
are vital to making low-carbon alternatives affordable so they can
deployed globally. One reason is that firms that benefit from
mercantilist policies have less incentive to innovate cheaper and
better technologies because larger market share is guaranteed by
government policy and not technological merit. Why would a firm
invest in the kind of advanced, cutting-edge research needed to
transform the global energy system if it can boost sales of its
products overseas merely by tapping into unfair government
subsidies? Why would state-owned enterprises invest more in innovations if it can continue to thrive
by dumping existing products at below market rates? Green mercantilism also
discourages the real innovators and innovators. Why would an
entrepreneur invest time and money in a brand new idea if the odds
are high that firms in other nations will steal the technology to
compete against them or that a foreign government requires the
firm to transfer trade secrets to a competitor as a prerequisite for
market access? Why should the government invest in research at leading universities that might
because of unfair government support. Now

lead to another Google or Envia Systems if the odds are high that a green mercantilist country will steal

The
answer to all of these questions in a clean energy industry
increasingly dominated by green mercantilism is they shouldn't or
wouldn't. Many U.S. clean energy advocates contend there is no problem with green mercantilism
the trade secrets or the innovation will be produced overseas because of unfair trade policies?

since it simply brings down the cost of new products. Any response, like tarifs, would simply raise prices
and hurt an industry making rapid gains. In other words, addressing green mercantilism is akin to ending a

innovation is
vital to the long-term growth of the industry. Green mercantilism
requires aggressive action by countries that implement "good"
innovation policies. In the short-term this means aggressively
prosecuting mercantilist policies and using tarifs if necessary. The recent rulings by the
U.S. clean energy tax credit or cash grant program. But they are wrong because

Department of Commerce to place tarifs on Chinese solar and wind tower imports is a positive first step in
leveling the playing field and combating green mercantilism. The United States should continue these
actions and Congress should boost financial support for USTR to enforce free-trade not only in the clean
energy industry, but all high-value traded industries as well.

Aggressive action also means

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

42

laying the framework for a clean energy industry dominated by good


innovation policies and not green mercantilism. A good first step would be to
negotiate free trade clean technology agreements, modeled after the successful Information Technology
Agreement implemented in the 1990's. Recent eforts by members of APEC to reduce tarifs on
environmental and energy technologies may be a promising starting point for broader negotiations. And
looking even beyond free trade agreements, the global community should utilize existing international
climate talks to boost global investments in innovation by implementing international clean energy RD&D

Policymakers and
advocates face a fundamental choice: cheaper existing clean energy
that is reliant on government subsidies or cheaper next-generation
clean energy that is competitive on their own through innovation.
Green mercantilism not only continues the former but makes the
latter much more difficult, negatively impacting the growth of the
clean economy as well as the global community's ability to address
climate change.
intensity targets as an alternative to international carbon caps.

Trade solves warming


Tamiotti et al. 2009 (Ludivine, Counsellor in the Trade and Environment
Division of the World Trade Organisation, Robert Teh is Counsellor in the
Economic Research and Statistics Division of the World Trade Organization,
Vesile Kulaolu, Director, Trade and Environment Division, WTO, Anne Olhof,
Sustainable Development and Climate Change Coordinator / Senior
Economist, Benjamin Simmons is Head of the Trade, Policy and Planning Unit
with UNEPs Economics and Trade Branch, Hussein Abaza is the Chief of the
Economics and Trade Branch of UNEP's Division of Technology, Industry, and
Economics, Trade and Climate Change,
http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_climate_change_e.pdf,
Hemanth)
the technique effect can be a major
mechanism through which trade opening can lead to mitigation of
climate change. More open trade can increase the availability of goods and services that are more
As discussed in the previous section,

energy efficient. The increased income made possible through trade opening can lead to greater demand
for better environmental quality and thus to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Related to this, trade (or
trade opening) encourages the spread from one country to another of technological innovations that are
beneficial in mitigating climate change. Furthermore, allowing international markets to remain open could
help countries adapt to supply disruptions that may be triggered by climate change, such as a shortage in

Technological spillovers from tr8ade International trade


can serve as a means for diffusing new technologies and know-ho w
food supplies. 1.

(Grossman and Helpman, 1991). International technology difusion is important because of the highly
skewed distribution of spending on research and development (R&D) around the world. Coe, Helpman and
Hofmaister (1997) estimate that 96 per cent of global expenditure on R&D is undertaken by only a handful
of industrialized countries. The distribution of expenditure on R&D is even more skewed than the
distribution of world income. Keller (2004) notes that the G-7 countries (the worlds leading industrialized
countries) accounted for 84 per cent of global spending on R&D in 1995, but represented only 64 per cent
of global gross domestic product (GDP). Since Solow (1956), economists have understood the importance

The greater a
countrys exposure to the international economy, the more it gains
from R&D activities in other countries (Helpman, 1997). This suggests a similar role
of technological change in raising productivity and underpinning economic growth.

for trade in difusing technologies that mitigate climate change. The available information indicates that 90
per cent of what is termed the environmental goods and services industry is located in member countries
of the OECD. 38 Since many OECD countries were among the first to adopt climate change mitigation
measures, the already lopsided distribution of technological now-how may become more distorted as the
adoption of mitigation measures leads to further innovation in environmental technologies in OECD
countries. Porter and van der Linde (1995) have argued that

domestic firms compliance

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

43

with environmental regulations can trigger technological


innovations, since such inventions will lower firms cost of compliance. 39 The existence of
spillovers in climate change technology (i.e. transfers of technological know-how
from one country to another) provides one mechanism by which developing
countries own efforts to combat climate chang e can benefit from innovations in
OECD countries. Section III.B provides information on trade opening in goods that may mitigate

There are several channels by which technological


dissemination through trade can occur (Grossman and Helpman, 1991; Helpman,
greenhouse gas emissions.

1997). As explained in Section I.B.4(a), one channel is through the importation of innovations embodied in
both intermediate goods (i.e. manufactured or processed goods which are used in further production
processes) and capital goods (e.g. machinery or equipment used in the production of other goods and
services) which a country could not have produced on its own. A second channel is through the transfer of
knowledge about new production methods and design from developed countries. h ird, international trade
can increase the available opportunities for adapting foreign technologies to meet local conditions. Lastly,

the learning opportunities arising from international economic


relations will reduce the cost of future innovation and imitation,
making them more accessible to developing countries.

Global trade deescalates every conflict


Sapiro 2014 Miriam, Visiting Fellow in the Global Economy and
Development program, former Deputy US Trade Representative, Why Trade
Matters, September 2014,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/09/why
%20trade%20matters/trade%20global%20views_final.pdf
This policy brief explores the economic rationale and strategic
imperative of an ambitious domestic and global trade agenda from the

perspective of the United States. International trade is often viewed through the relatively narrow prism of

it is important to consider also the impact that increased trade has on


global growth, development and security. With that context in mind, this paper assesses
the implications of the Asia-Pacific and European trade negotiations
underway, including for countries that are not participating but
aspire to join. It outlines some of the challenges that stand in the way of completion and ways in
trade-ofs that might be made among domestic sectors or between trading partners, but

which they can be addressed. It examines whether the focus on "mega-regional" trade agreements comes
at the expense of broader liberalization or acts as a catalyst to develop higher standards than might
otherwise be possible. It concludes with policy recommendations for action by governments, legislators
and stakeholders to address concerns that have been raised and create greater domestic support. It is fair
to ask whether we should be concerned about the future of international trade policy when dire developments are threatening the security interests of the United States and its partners in the Middle East, Asia,

In the Middle East, significant areas of Iraq have been


overrun by a toxic offshoot of Al-Qaeda, civil war in Syria rages with no
end in sight, and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is in tatters .
Nuclear negotiations with Iran have run into trouble, while Libya and Egypt
face continuing instability and domestic challenges. In Asia, historic rivalries and
disputes over territory have heightened tensions across the region,
most acutely by China's aggressive moves in the South China Sea
towards Vietnam, Japan and the Philippines. Nuclear-armed North Korea remains
isolated, reckless and unpredictable. In Africa, countries are struggling with rising
terrorism, violence and corruption. In Europe, Russia continues to foment instability
and destruction in eastern Ukraine. And within the European Union, lagging economic
Africa and Europe.

recovery and the surge in support for extremist parties have left people fearful of increasing violence
against immigrants and minority groups and skeptical of further integration. It is tempting to focus solely
on these pressing problems and defer less urgent issuessuch as forging new dis- ciplines for international
trade to another day, especially when such issues pose challenges of their own. But that would be a

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

44

A key motivation in building greater domestic and


international consensus for advanc- ing trade liberalization now is
precisely the role that greater economic integration can play in
opening up new avenues of opportunity for promoting development
and increasing economic prosperity. Such initiatives can help stabilize key regions
and strengthen the security of the United States and its partners.
The last century provides a powerful example of how expanding
trade relations can help reduce global tensions and raise living standards.
Following World War II, building stronger economic cooperation was
a centerpiece of allied efforts to erase battle scars and embrace
former enemies. In defeat, the economies of Germany, Italy and Japan faced ruin and people were
mistake.

on the verge of starvation. The United States led eforts to rebuild Europe and to repair Japan's economy. A
key element of the Marshall Plan, which established the foundation for unprecedented growth and the level
of European integration that exists today, was to revive trade by reducing tarifs.1 Russia, and the eastern
part of Europe that it controlled, refused to participate or receive such assistance. De- cades later, as the
Cold War ended, the United States and Western Europe sought to make up for lost time by providing
significant technical and financial assistance to help integrate central and eastern European countries with
the rest of Europe and the global economy. "There have been subsequent calls for a "Marshall Plan" for
other parts of the world,' although the confluence of dedicated resources, coordinated support and existing

impor- tant lessons have been


learned about the valuable role economic development can play in
defusing tensions, and how opening markets can hasten growth. There is again a growing
recognition that economic security and national security are two sides of
the same coin. General Carter Ham, who stepped down is head of U.S. Africa Command last year,
capacity has been difficult to replicate. Nonetheless,

observed the close connection between increasing prosperity and bolstering stability. During his time in
Africa he had seen that "security

and stability in many ways depends a lot


more on economic growth and oppor- tunity than it does on military
strength."1 Where people have opportunities for themselves and their children, he found, the result

was better governance, increased respect for human rights and lower levels of conflict. During his
confirmation hearing last year, Secretary John Kerry stressed the link between economic and national
security in the context of the competitiveness of the United States but the point also has broader
application. Our nation cannot be strong abroad, he argued, if it is not strong at home, including by putting
its own fiscal house in order. He assertedrightly sothat " more

than ever foreign policy


is economic policy," particularly in light of increasing competition for
global resources and markets. Every day, he said, "that goes by where
America is uncertain about engaging in that arena, or unwilling to put our best
foot forward and win, unwilling to dem- onstrate our resolve to lead, is a day in which we
weaken our nation itself."4 Strengthening America's economic security
by cementing its economic alliances is not simply an option, but an
imperative. A strong nation needs a strong economy that can generate growth, spur innovation and
create jobs. This is true, of course, not only for the United States but also
for its key partners and the rest of the global trading system. Much
as the United States led the way in forging strong military alliances
after World War II to discourage a resurgence of militant nationalism
in Europe or Asia, now is the time to place equal emphasis on shoring up
our collective economic security. A failure to act now could
undermine international security and place stability in key regions in
further jeopardy.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

45

Impact US Economy
TPA will generate more than $100 billion for the US
economy
Sutnik News, February 2015, Trans-Pacific Partnership to Increase Exports by
$123 Billion US Rep,
http://sputniknews.com/us/20150224/1018658569.html#ixzz3SheX83hj DOA:
2-25-15
WASHINGTON(Sputnik)TheTransPacificPartnership(TPP)agreementwillhelptheUnitedStates
growitsexportsbymorethan$123billionby2025andprovideAmericanworkerswithgreaternumber
ofhighearningopportunities,USTradeRepresentativeMichaelFromansaid.
IntheAsiaPacific,ourmaintoolforlevelingtheplayingfieldforAmericanworkersandbusinessesis
calledtheTransPacificPartnership,orTPP,FromansaidattheNationalAssociationofCounties
LegislativeConferenceinWashington,DConMonday.Itwillgrowourexportsbymorethan$123
billionby2025,accordingtooneestimate,andsupportmanymorehighpayingjobs.

Froman explained the TPP agreement is the most ambitious trade agenda
in American history because it aims to increase US economic investment
in 11 Asian countries that cover nearly 40 percent of the global economy.

TheTPPwillboostUSeconomicgrowth,supportAmericanjobs,andgrowUSexports,accordingtothe
OfficeoftheUSTradeRepresentative.
Thefirststeptowardrealizingthosegainsistosecurebipartisantradepromotionauthority.Itstimetoget
itdone,Fromansaid.
TheTPPtreatystartedastheTransPacificStrategicPartnershipAgreementin2005,andcurrentlyunites
12countriesoftheAsiaPacificregion,includingAustralia,Japan,MexicoandCanada.
TheTPPagreementoriginatedwithinPresidentObama's2011PacificPivotstrategy.Atthetime,Obama
outlinedtheneedforclosersecurityrelationshipsintheregion,aswellasestablishingeconomicties
withAsiaPacificpartners.

Read more:

Read more:
http://sputniknews.com/us/20150224/1018658569.html#ixzz3ShePofHz

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

46

AUMF Neg

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

47

AUMF U
AUMF will pass
John Bennet, 2-24-15, Defense News, Optimism on AUMF Ahead of Kerry
Testimony, http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policybudget/congress/2015/02/24/aumf-islamic-state-senate/23933701/ DOA: 224-25
WASHINGTONUSlawmakersareexpectedtoquestionSecretaryofStateJohnKerryTuesday
abouttheIslamicStatefight,thefirststepinacomplicatedprocessthatkeymembersbelievewill
resultinanewauthorizationfortheuseofmilitaryforce(AUMF).KerrywilltestifybeforetheSenate
ForeignRelationsCommitteeat2:30p.m.EST.WhenKerrylastappearedbeforethepanelaboutan
AUMFtailoredfortheIslamicStateconflict,amajorriftamongsenatorsdevelopedoverlanguageabout
USgroundforces.OneonsidewereKerryandRepublicans,arguingagainstpassingameasurethatmight
leavethecommanderinchiefandmilitarybrasshamstrunginfightingtheviolentSunnigroup.Onthe
otherwereDemocrats,concernedalackofsuchlimitsmightleadtoanotherlargescaleUSgroundwarin
theMiddleEast.EvenaslawmakerspassionatelymaketheircasesatTuesday'shearing,thosethatwill
spearheadtheefforttopassAmerica'sfirstnewwarauthorizationmeasurein13yearssaytheyare
optimisticaboutpassingamajorpieceoflegislation,somethingtheSenatehasstruggledwithinthe
Obamaera.IthinkaslongastheWhiteHouseiswillingtotakeintoconsiderationtheconcernsof
members,there'sawaytogetthere,"SenateForeignRelationsCommitteeRankingMemberBob
Menendez,DN.J.,saidduringarecentinterview."Butit'sgoingtotakesomework,"hetold
CongressWatch."Andit's,youknow,admittedlyatoughjobtostrikeabalancethatgetsyouthebroad
bipartisansupport.ButIthinkit'spossible."

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

48

TPA Aff

Stefan Bauschard
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49

Aff
PC on retirement security plan
Zach Carter, 2-24-15, Huffington Post, How Democrats Strangled the ObamaWarren Retirement Security Plan in the Cradle,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/24/democrats-obama-retirementsecurity-plan_n_6740068.html DOA: 2-24-15
PresidentBarackObamaunveiledasignificantretirementsecurityproposalwithSen.Elizabeth
Warren(DMass.)onMonday,announcingplanstobolsterretirementaccountsbycurbingconflictsofinterestonWallStreet.TheadministrationsaysAmericans
loseacombined$17billioneachyearthroughhiddenfeesandconflictedinvestmentadvice.Investmentspecialistsfrequentlysteerinvestorsintofinancialproductsthatmaximize
benefitstotheadvisersortheircompanies,insteadoftheirclients.Tocurbthis,Obamaplanstoimposeanew"fiduciaryduty"onretirementaccountmanagers,requiringthemto
actinthebestinterestsofinvestors."It'saverysimpleprinciple,"ObamasaidMonday."Youwanttogivefinancialadvice,youvegottoputyourclientsinterestsfirst.""It's
about time to do something we should have done long ago -- to end the kickbacks, the free vacations, the fancy cars and the other incentives
to sell bad products to unsuspecting customers," Warren added. Wall Street lobbyists, of course, have opposed such a move for years. But
some of the most ardent foes of the pending rule have actually been Obama's fellow Democrats. The administration first proposed its fiduciary
duty rule in 2010, but set it aside after a lobbying blitz from the financial sector. Over the next few years, many Democrats lined up to urge the
administration to rethink or delay the low-profile rule, pressure that assisted bank lobbyists' eforts to eliminate it altogether. In June 2013,
dozens of House Democrats, including some of the most progressive members of Congress, signed of on a letter penned by financial industry
lobbyist Robert Lewis claiming that the rule would prevent financial firms from ofering investment advice to low-income investors and people
of color. The letter never laid out why its signatories believed banning financial experts from ripping of their own clients would end up hurting
low-income people. "It doesn't," said Barbara Roper, director of investor protection for the Consumer Federation of America. "It just doesn't.
But it's a much more compelling argument for Wall Street to make than saying, 'We're making a boatload of money of of these people and we
want to keep that going.'" HufPost reached out to several of the Democrats included on the letter, including Reps. Karen Bass (Calif.), Sanford
Bishop (Ga.), Corrine Brown (Fla.), Yvette Clarke (N.Y.), William Lacy Clay (Mo.), Emanuel Cleaver (Mo.), James Clyburn (S.C.), Elijah Cummings
(Md.), Danny Davis (Ill.), Marcia Fudge (Ohio), Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii), Hakeem Jefries (N.Y.), Hank Johnson (Ga.), Barbara Lee (Calif.), Gregory
Meeks (N.Y.), Cedric Richmond (La.), David Scott (Ga.), Terri Sewell (Ala.), Maxine Waters (Calif.) and Frederica Wilson (Fla.). All declined to
comment for this article. Sources close to the debate told HufPost that lawmakers had been concerned the Department of Labor rule would
ban all commissions -- payments to investment professionals based on sales volumes for financial products. Lawmakers worried that
eliminating all such fees would discourage brokers from serving low-income clients with small account balances. The United Kingdom bans
commissions for investment advisers on conflict-of-interest grounds. The letter does not explicitly mention commissions, and consumer
protection advocates are understandably concerned about brokers taking commissions to steer their clients into bad investments. In August
2013, Senate Democrats weighed in, with 10 lawmakers urging the Department of Labor to delay its rule, suggesting that it might conflict with
a proposal from the Securities and Exchange Commission. A coalition of consumer groups, including CFA, Americans for Financial Reform and
Public Citizen, quickly sent a letter of their own, calling the claims unfounded. "The original proposal included no conflict with the federal
securities laws," the letter reads. "Nor has any spokesperson for the Department made any statement that even suggests any such
conflict.Three of those senators were unseated in the November 2014 elections. Of those still in Congress, Democratic Sens. Tom Carper
(Del.), Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) and Mark Warner (Va.) all declined to comment for this article. "If the Administrations
draft rule isnt harmonized with the SEC, it could reduce investment options for middle-class families and deny main street investors the
opportunity to responsibly prepare for retirement," Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) told HufPost in a written statement. "Working folks and their
families should be able to get sound financial advice to help them achieve a secure retirement, and thats what Senator McCaskill will be
looking for in any proposed rule," said Sarah Feldman, a spokeswoman for Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). "Senator Cardin has spoken with
Secretary Perez about the rule, but the senator will be waiting until he sees the full details before commenting," Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.)
spokeswoman Sue Walitsky said. Through it all, the Obama administration continued to delay the rule. The battle continued into December
2014, when top Democratic budget negotiators nearly accepted a Republican proposal to block the Obama administration from implementing
it, until House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) exiled the topic from talks over the so-called cromnibus bill. The administration has not
formally introduced a new rule for public comment, and once it does, it will be months before a final rule is implemented. The Obama team
says the ultimate proposal will be more flexible than the 2010 plan, with broader exemptions for some investment planners. But

Obama's decision to put political capital behind a new rule has


encouraged many financial reform advocates. "It makes sense, it's right
and it's important," said Lisa Donner, executive director of Americans for
Financial Reform.

Not top of the docket


Reynold Hutchins, 2-23-15, Journal of Commerce, TPP Hinges on Obama
getting trade promotion authority, trade officials say, DOA: 2-24-15,
http://www.joc.com/regulation-policy/trade-agreements/international-tradeagreements/tpp-hinges-obama-getting-trade-promotion-authority-tradeofficials-say_20150223.html
UtahSen.OrrinHatch,RepublicanchairmanoftheSenateFinanceCommittee,hassaidheplanson
introducinglegislationthismonthtostreamlinethepassageoftradedealsthroughCongress.Hehas

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

50

alsocalledforahearingbeforehiscommitteeThursdaytodiscusstheU.S.tradeagendaandpriorities.But
itsbeenmembersofthepresidentsownpartythathavebeenreluctanttojumponthe
bandwagon,inthewordsofSenateMinorityLeaderHarryReid,DNev.Reid,theSenatestop
Democrat,hassaidhewillnotevenconsidertradepromotionauthoritylegislationuntilthereare
certainguaranteesitwillbenefitthemiddleclass.ThefinancecommitteestopDemocrat,Sen.Ron
WydenofOregon,hasagreedwithReidandsaidlastweekthathebelievesahearingwouldbe
premature.Thereisnoagreementontradepromotionauthority,orotheraspectsofthelegislative
tradeagendamorebroadly,"WydenspokesmanKeithChusaidinastatement.

Many other agenda items


National Law Review, 2-23-15, This Week in Congress February 23, 2015
re: DHS Appropriations Bill, http://www.natlawreview.com/article/weekcongress-february-23-2015-re-dhs-appropriations-bill DOA: 2-24-15
TheSenatewillconveneonMondayandresumeconsiderationofthemotiontoproceedtoH.R.240,the
HousepassedDepartmentofHomelandSecurityAppropriationsbill

.
Currentfundingfortheagency
expiresonFebruary27,thisFriday.Forthetwoweeksprecedinglastweeksrecess,SenateDemocrats
successfullyblockedthechamberfrommovingforwardonconsiderationoftheappropriationsmeasure,
duetopolicyridersattachedbytheHouseofRepresentativestonullifyPresidentObamasrecent
ExecutiveOrdersondeferredactionforimmigrantsinthecountryillegallyandattendantbenefits.Before
departingforthePresidentsDayrecess,MajorityLeaderMcConnellacknowledgedtoreportersthatthe
SenateisstuckonthebillandthenextmovewillbeuptotheHouse.HouseRepublicansresponded
thattheyhavenointerestintakingupthebillasecondtime,withouttheimmigrationpolicyriders.One
majorchangetothepolicydebatesincelastweek:aTexasfederaldistrictjudgeissuedaninjunction
againsttheObamaAdministrationsimmigrationpolicy,essentiallyputtingitonhold.Thejudgeheldthat
thepolicyviolatestheproceduralrequirementsoftheAdministrativeProcedureAct.Thisactionbythe
courtmaybeanopportunityfortheSenatetoavoidthepolicyridersandpassacleanfundingbill,butit
remainsunclearwhethertheHousewillalteritsposition.Ashortterm,stopgapfundingmeasureto
preventashutdownoftheagencyisthemostlikelyoutcome,asallowingDHStoshutdowninthiseraof
IslamicStateterrorismandglobalcyberattacksseemsunlikely,butatthispointnooneknowsforsure
whatwillhappen.ItisunclearwhattheSenatewillfocusononcetheDHSappropriationsbillisresolved.
TheSenateJudiciaryCommitteeisexpectedtovoteonThursdayonthenominationsofLorettaLynchto
beU.S.AttorneyGeneralandMichelleLeetoheadtheU.S.PatentandTrademarkOffice,andthefull
chambermayconsiderthenominationsinearlyMarch.TheHousewillreturnonTuesdayandconsider
fourbillsundersuspensionoftherulesonTuesdayandWednesday.TheHouseschedulehasalsomade
allowanceforHouseconsiderationoftheDHSAppropriationsbillcomingbackfromtheSenate.The
Housewillthenresumeconsiderationoftaxlegislation.Havingpassedseveralbillstomakevarioustax
provisionspermanent,onWednesdaytheHousewilltakeupabilltoexpandtheuseof529collegesavings
plansonWednesday.OnThursdayandFriday,Housewillconsiderlegislationtoreformfederal
elementaryandsecondaryeducationprograms.HouseEducationandWorkforceCommitteeChairman
JohnKline(RMN)heldamarkupofH.R.5,theStudentSuccessAct,onFebruary11.Theauthorization
bill,anupdatetotheNoChildLeftBehindAct,wasreportedoutofcommitteeonapartisanvote.Thebill
consolidatesmanyfederaleducationprogramsandestablishesblockgrantsforotherprogramstogive
statesgreaterflexibilityintheuseofthefunds.DemocratsandtheAdministrationopposethebill,dueto
itsrollbackoffederalcontrolovertheprogramsandaconcernthatleavingmoredecisionmakingauthority
inthehandsofeachstatewillunderminethegoalsofthesefederaleducationprograms.Analmost
identicalmeasurepassedtheHousein2013,withonlyoneDemocraticvote,butwasneverconsideredby
thethenDemocraticcontrolledSenate.SenateHealth,Education,LaborandPensionsCommittee
ChairmanLamarAlexander(RTN)hasreleasedaworkingdraftofhisownreauthorizationbill.Heand
RankingMemberPattyMurray(DWA)releasedajointstatementsayingtheywereworkingtogetheron
developingbipartisanlegislation.ChairmanAlexanderhaspreviouslyindicatedhewouldliketohavea
billreadyforconsiderationbythefullSenatebyMarch1,buttheCommitteehasnotscheduledanyaction

Stefan Bauschard
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51

ontheissuefornextweek,sothattimetableappearstohaveslipped.Thisweek,bothHouseandSenate
authorizingandappropriatingcommitteesresumeconsiderationofthePresidents2016budget
request.AnumberofCabinetofficialswillbeattendingthosehearings:SecretaryofStateJohnKerry
willtestifybeforetheHouseForeignAffairsCommitteeonWednesdayregardingtheAdministrations
foreignaffairsbudgetrequest;SecretaryofAgricultureTomVilsackwilltestifybeforetheHouse
AppropriationsSubcommitteeonAgricultureonWednesday;HousingandUrbanDevelopmentSecretary
JulianCastrowillappearbeforetheHouseAppropriationsSubcommitteeonTransportation,Housingand
UrbanDevelopmentonWednesday;TransportationSecretaryAnthonyFoxxwillappearbeforetheHouse
AppropriationsSubcommitteeonTransportation,HousingandUrbanDevelopmentonThursday;Energy
SecretaryErnestMonizwillappearbeforetheHouseAppropriationsSubcommitteeonEnergyandWater
onThursday;HealthandHumanServicesSecretarySylviaBurwellwillappearbeforetheHouseEnergy
andCommerceSubcommitteeonHealthonThursday;InteriorSecretarySallyJewellwilltestifybefore
theSenateEnergyandNaturalResourcesCommitteeonTuesdayandtheHouseAppropriations
SubcommitteeonInterioronWednesday.FederalReserveBoardChairmanJanetYellenwillalsobeon
CapitolHillonWednesdaytotestifybeforetheHouseFinancialServicesCommittee.SenateFinance
CommitteeChairmanOrrinHatch(RUT)scheduledatradehearingonThursday,and,inahighlyunusual
move,theschedulingofthehearingdrewarebukefromRankingMemberRonWyden(DOR),a
potentiallyforebodingsignalfortheprospectsofTradePromotionAuthoritylegislation.Finally,asnoted
above,theSenateJudiciaryCommitteewillconsidertheLynchandLeenominationsatitsexecutive
businessmeetingonThursday.AscheduleforthesehearingsandotherkeyCongressionalhearingsforthe
weekareincludedbelow:

Partisan DHS fight. If that didnt spill over, no reason to


think the plan will
Philip Brasher, 2-22-15, AgriPulse, http://www.agri-pulse.com/WashingtonWeek-Ahead-agribusiness-wary-DHS-shutdown-Vilsack-McCarthy02222015.asp DOA: 2-24-15

The partisan showdown over funding the Department of Homeland Security comes
to a head this week with the looming expiration of a stopgap funding bill.
Republicans have insisted on using a bill to fund DHS for the remainder of fiscal 2015 to
block the executive actions aimed at allowing many illegal immigrants to stay in the
country. Democrats have repeatedly refused to allow the bill to advance in the Senate.
DHS is operating on a continuing resolution that expires Friday. Much of its workforce
could continue working even without funding authorization.
NU AUMF fight
Stephen Dinan, 2-24-15, Washington Times, Obama Islamic State war
powers beyond Congressional control, research service finds,
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/feb/23/obama-islamic-state-warpowers-beyond-congressiona/ DOA: 2-24-15
By that interpretation, the new resolution arguably would give Mr.
Obama more, not fewer, powers to wage war by allowing him to go
after what Mr. Garcia labeled "some persons or groups on account of
their affiliation with the Islamic State that could not be targeted
under the 2001 AUMF."

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

52

Secretary of State John F. Kerry will be on Capitol Hill Tuesday and


Wednesday to defend Mr. Obama's proposed budget for the State
Department, and the push for war powers is likely to dominate the
conversation.
Since August, Mr. Obama has had U.S. troops committed to a campaign
including airstrikes on targets in Iraq and Syria, and to American troops
providing logistics and intelligence advice to Iraqi forces.
The president claims authority under the 2001 authorization of war
against al Qaeda and the Taliban, under the 2002 authorization that
initiated the war in Iraq and under his inherent powers as
commander in chief established in the Constitution.

NU Keystone veto alienated Democrats and Republicans


Laura Baron Lopez, 2-24-15, The Hill, Obama Vetoes Keystone XL Bill,
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/233651-obama-vetoeskeystone-xl DOA: 2-25-15
PresidentObamaonTuesdayvetoedlegislationauthorizingconstructionoftheKeystoneXLoil
pipeline,rebuffingthenewRepublicanledCongressamidafuriousbattleoverHomelandSecurity
funding.ThevetojustthethirdofObamaspresidencyandhisfirstofmajorlegislationwasmade
inprivateandwithoutfanfare,reflectingtensionsintheDemocraticPartyoverwhetherthe
controversialpipelineshouldbeapproved.ThroughthisbilltheUnitedStatesCongressattemptsto
circumventlongstandingandprovenprocessesfordeterminingwhetherornotbuildingandoperatinga
crossborderpipelineservesthenationalinterest,Obamasaidinhisvetostatement.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

53

A2: Open Internet Impact


TPA wont preserve the open internet
Mike Masnick, 2-23-15, Tech Dirt, Trade Agreements Should Protect an
Open Internet, Not Kill It,
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150222/17384530109/trade-agreementsshould-protect-open-internet-not-kill-it.shtml DOA: 2-25-14
Andthatbringsus(finally)tothequestionofwhatwillbeintheeventualpushforfasttrackauthority,that
isexpectedtocomeoutanydaynow.DanielSepulveda,whoissortoftheUS's"ambassadortothe
internet,"justgaveaspeechtalkingabouthow

fasttrackcanhelpprotecttheopeninternet.Henotes,
rightly,thatit'simportantto"[preserve]thefreeflowofinformation,toprotecttheinternet'spotentialas
theworld'sengineforfuturegrowth."Hefurtherpointsoutthat"theincreaseinInternetusecreates
significanteconomicpotential."But,oddly,heclaimsthatfasttrackcansomehowguaranteethis
whenpreviousattemptsatfasttrackhaveshownnosuchthing.Here'sSepulveda:
TheObamaAdministrationisworkingtounlockthepromiseofecommerce,keeptheInternetfreeand
open,promotecompetitiveaccessfortelecommunicationssuppliers,andsetdigitaltraderulesoftheroad
bynegotiatingnewtradeagreements.TradePromotionAuthoritylegislationandthependingtrade
agreementsweexpectCongresstoconsideroverthecomingmonthsandyearswillprovidethatkindof
protection.Theseagreementsaimtoensurethatthefreeflowofinformationanddataarethedefault
settingfornations.ThiswillpreservethearchitecturethathasempoweredtheInternetandglobal
communicationstofueleconomicgrowthathomeandabroad.Itisinourinterest,acrosspartiesand
ideology,toensurewemoveforwardandapproveTPAandthependingagreementsformanyreasons,but
promotingthepreservationandgrowthofglobalcommunicationsandtheopenInternetisoneofthe
strongest.
IagreethatpreservinganopeninternetisimportantandIwishthatourtradedealsdidexactly
that,buttheydon't.Inparticular,theintellectualpropertysectionsofvarioustradeagreementshave
notbeenfocusedonpreservinganopeninternet,butonshuttingitdown.We'vebeenaskingfor
nearlyadecade

howprotectionistpoliciesaimedatproppingupalegacyindustry'sobsoletebusiness
modelsis"promotingfreetrade."Itseemsliketheopposite.

TPP & TTIP wont protect the open Internet


Mike Masnick, 2-23-15, Tech Dirt, Trade Agreements Should Protect an
Open Internet, Not Kill It,
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150222/17384530109/trade-agreementsshould-protect-open-internet-not-kill-it.shtml DOA: 2-25-14
Lookfamiliar?Otherthantheinclusionofthephrase"includinginamannerthatfacilitateslegitimate
digitaltrade,"theyareidentical.Andyet,thinkaboutjusthowmuchtheworldhaschangedsince2002
andhowimportantweknowtheinternetis,andhowmuchwe'velearnedabouthowintellectualproperty
lawcanbewidelyabusedtoharmorbreaktheopeninternet.Sincethen,we'veseentheDMCAused
repeatedlytostiflefreeexpression

.We'veseenRussia

usingcopyrightlaw

tostiflepoliticaldissent.
We'veseenhowplanstousecopyrightlawtoblockaccesstocertainsitesenableanarchitectureof
censorship.We'veseennewspublications

seized

andpopulardigitalstoragelockers

shutdown
completelyviacopyrightclaims.Givenallthat,it'sdifficulttoseehowtheUScanactuallybeserious
aboutprotectinganopenandfreeinternet,ifit'sgoingtocontinuetousetradeagreementslikethe
TPPtopushforgreatertoolslikethosedescribedabove,thatsimplyputtheabilitytocensorthe

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

54

internet,andtotakedowninnovativeservices,intotradeagreements.If,whentheeventualtrade
promotionauthoritybillcomesout,itincludesthissamelanguagealloveragain,youcanbesurethatthe
TPPisnot
aboutprotectinganopeninternet,butratheraboutprotectingafewlegacybusinesses,
andenabling

governmenttoshutdownandstoptheopeninternet.I'mabelieverinfreetradeandopen
borders.IknowthatsomeareprotestingagreementsliketheTPPbecausetheydon'tlikefreetradeitself,
andthinkit'sproblematic.That'snotmyconcern.Myconcernisthatwhat'sbeingdoneinthenameoffree
trade,andinthenameofanopeninternet,isanythingbutthat.It'saboutprotectingthepast,notinvesting
inandenablingthefuture.Weallhaveourconcernsaboutwhat'sinthevarioussectionsoftheTPP(which
couldbesolvedtodayiftheUSTRjustreleasedthedamndocuments),butourfirsthintofwhat'sreally
goingonherewillbeevidentbyhowthe"intellectualproperty"sectionoftheexpectedTPAbilliswritten.
Ifit'sjustrepeatingthesamemisleadinglinesfrom2002,youcanbesurethattheTPPisjustasbiga
problemasexpected.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

55

AUMF Aff
No Congressional agreement on AUMF
Paul Kane, 2-22-15, Washington Post, Congress Split Over Ways to Face
Islamic State, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress-is-dividedas-it-prepares-to-debate-war-against-the-islamic-state/2015/02/22/16a57c7eb922-11e4-aa05-1ce812b3fdd2_story.html DOA: 2-25-15

CongressreturnstoWashingtonthisweekaftera10daybreaktoconfrontthedifficultbusinessofhowthe
UnitedStatesshouldwagewaragainstterroristorganizationssuchastheIslamicState.
Theformaltaskistowriteandapproveanauthorizationfortheuseofmilitaryforce,orAUMF,but
thebroadergoalistodemonstratetotheworldthatthereisunified,bipartisansupportforU.S.military
engagementagainstanew,moremystifyingenemythantheonestheUnitedStatesfacedwhenCongress
lastapprovedsimilarresolutions,in2001and2002.Sofar,theonlyrealagreementisthatCongress
needstoplayamoreforcefulroleinthedebateoverforeignaffairs.TheObamaadministrationhas
founditselfcaughtinapositionofsoundingthealarmaboutpotentialterroristattacksas
HomelandSecuritySecretaryJehJohnsondidSunday,highlightingintelligencesuggestingthepossibility
ofattacksonshoppingmallsbutofferingawarresolutionthatincludeslimitsonthescopeofbattle
againsttheIslamicState.CriticsontherighthavesteppeduptheircampaigntorefashionPresident
ObamasAUMFrequesttoallowforamoreexpansiveattack,evenifitincludesU.S.troopsfighting
ontheground.OnSunday,Sen.LindseyGraham(RS.C.),oneofhispartysleadingmilitaryhawks,said
hewantstheRepublicanpartytotalkopenlyaboutthehardthings,likehavingbootsonthegroundin
SyriaandIraq,Americanbootsonthegroundinthefight.Theresnodoubtinmymind,militarily,that
wecannotsucceedinourendeavorstodegradeanddestroyISILwithouthavinganAmericancomponent,
GrahamsaidonABCsThisWeek,usinganothernamefortheIslamicState.Criticsonthelefthave
worriedthatObamasAUMFrequestlacksspecificityandwouldgranttoomuchauthoritytothe
Pentagontoexpandthewarintoothertheaters.Eventhepresidentsstaunchestnationalsecurityallyon
CapitolHill,Sen.JackReed(DR.I.),foundsomethingtoseriouslyquibblewithinthedraft.Oh,Ithink
theresolutionforthreeyears,atimelimit,isnotappropriate.Wedontwanttosendasignaltotheworld
thatwerethereforjustsomanyyears.Unfortunately,thisbattleisgoingtotakealongtime,Reed,the
rankingDemocratontheArmedServicesCommittee,saidinatelevisioninterviewlastweekonNBC.The
formalworkwillbeconductedintheHouseForeignAffairsandSenateForeignRelations
committees,thepanelswithjurisdictiontoauthorizemilitaryactionsoverseas.SecretaryofStateJohnF.
KerryisscheduledtotestifybeforetheHouseForeignAffairsCommitteeonWednesday,whilemilitary
legalexpertsaresettoappearbeforetheHouseArmedServicesCommitteeonThursday.TheSenate
panelsaretryingtoputtogethertheirAUMFhearinglineupsaswell.Kerrystestimonyisaregularly
scheduledappearancetodiscusstheStateDepartmentsannualbudget,butitiscertaintoturnintoaforum
onthesituationinSyria.TheAUMFrequestsentbyObamatoCongressisjustanopeningbid,asis
normallythecase,sotherewillbenovoteonthatparticulardraft.InfluentiallawmakerslikeReedand
Sen.JohnMcCain(RAriz.),chairmanoftheArmedServicesCommitteewillplaykeyadvisoryrolesin
thewardebate,andultimatelyeverymemberoftheHouseandSenatewillhaveachancetovoteonthe
resolution.Thatis,ifthecommitteescancometoanykindofagreementontheoutlinesofaresolution.
Thechanceforfailureisreal,giventhatinrecentyears,Congresshasstumbledovertraditionally
bipartisanmovessuchaslongtermfundingforfarmpolicyandhighwayconstructionandisontheverge
ofshuttingdowntheDepartmentofHomelandSecurityoveraseparateimmigrationdispute.OnSunday,
Sen.BobCorker(RTenn.),chairmanoftheForeignRelationsCommittee,notedthedifficulttaskahead
anddidnotguaranteesuccess.Weregoingtobedebatinganauthorizationfortheuseofmilitaryforce
heresoon.Thisisanimportantissue.Itsimportanttoourhomelandsecurity.Itsimportanttotheworld.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

56

AndIhopeasanationwelltakeitoninasoberandimportantwayoverthenextseveralweeks,Corker
saidonNBCsMeetthePress.ThemotivationsfordraftingandpassinganAUMFaredifferentinevery
cornerofCongress.ManyDemocratswerefirstelectedtoCongressin2006and2008becauseof
strongantiwarsentimentamongtheelectoratefollowingstrugglesinIraq,andsomeviewthisasachance
tocorrectthemistakesfromthe2002debatethatapprovedthatwar.Istronglybelievethatwemustput
strictlimitsontheuseofforcetoensurethattheUnitedStatesdoesnotgetentangledinanotherendless
warintheMiddleEast,Sen.ChrisMurphy(DConn.),whowonaHouseseatin2006,saidinmid
Decemberaftervotingforanearlywarresolution.Thatdraft,approvedonapartylinevote,placedstrict
limitsonanyuseofgroundtroopsandstrongtimelimitationsontheoperation,leadingCorkerandother
Republicanstoopposeit.ItwasneverconsideredontheSenatefloor.MostRepublicanswanttogrant
moreexpansivepowerstothepresidentandthemilitarychiefsthatwouldavoidthosekindsof
restrictionsontheprosecutionofthewar,andmostofthenewestRepublicanmembers,sweptintoofficein
Novembersmidterms,haveadoptedverytraditionalGOPhawkishviewsonmattersofnationalsecurity.
IthinkweshouldnotrestrainthepresidentoftheUnitedStates,McCainsaidonNBCsMeetthePress
onFeb.15.TheCongresshasthepowerofthepurse.Ifwedontlikewhatthecommanderinchiefis
doing,wecancutoffhisfundsfordoingso.Buttorestrainhiminourauthorizationofhimtakingmilitary
action,Ithink,frankly,isunconstitutionalandeventuallyleadsto535commandersinchief.Thismakes
foraparticularlytrickyefforttofindanysortofAUMFlanguagethatcanwinthesupportofboth
MurphyandMcCain,anditillustratesthebroaderproblemforCongress.Interviewswithkey
adviserstoseniorRepublicansandDemocratsshowedthatthereislittleappetiteamongcongressional
leaderstodrawupadocumentthatisparticularlypartisanevenunderthemorerestrictivetimelines
suggestedbysome,thispolicywillbeinplaceforwhoeverbecomesthenextpresident.SoCorkerand
Rep.EdwardR.Royce(RCalif.),chairmanoftheHouseForeignAffairsCommittee,needtocomeupwith
somesupportfromDemocrats.Otherwise,theirAUMFresolutionscouldmeetthesamefateastheall
DemocraticversioninDecember.TheresalsoablocofRepublicanswhowillbeveryunwillingto
supportanyAUMFbecausetheydonottrustthepresidentonmilitarymatters,accordingtosenior
Republicanaides.OnelongstandingcomplaintfromGOPlawmakersisthatWestWingofficials
micromanagePentagonofficialsinmattersofwar,andthereisstillsomelingeringresentmentaboutaJuly
letterfromnationalsecurityadviserSusanE.RicetoHouseSpeakerJohnA.Boehner(ROhio)callingfor
repealofthe2002Iraqwarresolution,sentapparentlywithoutconsultingDefenseDepartmentofficials.
Withsomanyobstaclestoabipartisanmajorityinbothchambers,Boehnerdeclinedtopredictthe
outcomebeforedepartingforthe10daybreak.

New AUMF not needed for the war


Stephen Dinan, 2-24-15, Washington Times, Obama Islamic State war
powers beyond Congressional control, research service finds,
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/feb/23/obama-islamic-state-warpowers-beyond-congressiona/ DOA: 2-24-15
President Obama could still use ground troops in Iraq and Syria to fight
the Islamic State and the next president could extend the war beyond
the three-year limit no matter what Congress passes, lawmakers'
research arm said this week in a legal brief that undercuts many of
the key restrictions that Capitol Hill is demanding.
The difficulty, according to the Congressional Research Service, is that Mr.
Obama's proposal for a new authorization for the use of military
force would leave in place a 2001 war resolution authorizing the
fight against al Qaeda. The president already has been using the
2001 resolution to justify six months of airstrikes and other combat
operations against Islamic State fighters.

Stefan Bauschard
February 24 Politics

57

"The plain language of the draft AUMF states that the authorization expires
three years after the date of enactment, unless reauthorized. However the
draft AUMF does not require the termination of hostilities upon
expiration," Congressional Research Service stafer Michael John Garcia
wrote in a legal memo to lawmakers. "Arguably the executive could still
point to other sources of authority - including the 2001 AUMF and
the president's independent constitutional authority - as providing a
legal basis for continuing hostilities against the Islamic State."
Mr. Garcia said that also holds true for ground troops, which are
allowed under the 2001 resolution, even though Mr. Obama generally would
prohibit them in his request to fight the Islamic State.
Some members of Congress have argued that Mr. Obama is in violation of the
law by citing the 2001 authorization to go after the Islamic State. The
administration, however, has said the terrorist army is a successor of al
Qaeda ofshoots, so the earlier war resolution covers this incarnation.

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