Week 1 Homework Problems

Statistics 134, Pitman,

Spring 2015
1.3.13 The inclusionexclusion formula gives the probability of a union of events in terms of
probabilities of intersections of the various subcollections of these events. Because this
expression is rather complicated, and probabilities of intersections may be unknown or
hard to compute, it is useful to know
simple bounds. Use induction on
Sn that there
Pare
n
n to derive Booles inequality: P ( i=1 Ai ) i=1 P (Ai ).
1.4.6 Suppose two cards are dealt from a deck of 52. What is the probability that the
second card is a spade given that the first card is black?
1.4.10 Suppose electric power is supplied from two independent sources which work with
probabilities 0.4, 0.5, respectively. If both sources are providing power enough power
will be available with probability 1. If exactly one of them works there will be enough
power with probability 0.6. Of course, if none of them works the probability that there
will be sufficient supply is 0.
1. What are the probabilities that exactly k sources work for k = 0, 1, 2?
2. Compute the probability that enough power will be available.
1.5.2 An urn contains 4 white balls and 6 black balls. A ball is chosen at random, and its
color noted. The ball is then replaced, along with 3 more balls of the same color (so
that there are now 13 balls in the urn). Then another ball is drawn at random from
the urn.
1. Find the chance that the second ball drawn is white. (Draw an appropriate tree
diagram.)
2. Given that the second ball drawn is white, what is the probability that the first
ball drawn is black?
3. Suppose the original contents of the urn are w white and b black balls, and that
after a ball is drawn from the urn, it is replaced along with d more balls of the
same color. In part a), w was 4, b was 6, and d was 3. Show that the chance that
w
. [Note that the probability above does not
the second ball drawn is white is w+b
depend on the value of d.]
1.5.4 A digital communications system consists of a transmitter and a receiver. During each
short transmission interval the transmitter sends a signal which is to be interpreted as
a zero, or it sends a different signal which is to be interpreted as a one. At the end of
each interval, the receiver makes its best guess at what was transmitted. Consider the
events:
T0 = {Transmitter sends 0},

R0 = {Receiver concludes that a 0 was sent},

1

T1 = {Transmitter sends 1},

R1 = {Receiver concludes that a 1 was sent}.

Assume that P (R0 |T0 ) = 0.99, P (R1 |T1 ) = 0.98, and P (T1 ) = 0.5. Find:
1. the probability of a transmission error given R1 ;
2. the overall probability of a transmission error.
3. Repeat a) and b) assuming P (T1 ) = 0.8 instead of 0.5.
1.5.6 An experimenter observes the occurrence of an event A as the result of a particular
experiment. There are three different hypotheses, H1 , H2 , and H3 , which the experimenter regards as the only possible explanations of the occurrence of A. Under
hypothesis H1 , the experiment should produce the result A about 10% of the time over
the long run, under H2 about 1% of the time, and under H3 about 39% of the time.
Having observed A, the experimenter decides that H3 is the most likely explanation,
and that the probability that H3 is true is
39%
= 78%.
10% + 1% + 39%
1. What assumption is the experimenter implicitly making?
2. Does the probability 78% admit a long-run frequency interpretation?
3. Suppose the experiment is a laboratory test on a blood sample from an individual
chosen at random from a particular population. The hypothesis Hi is that the
individuals blood is of some particular type i. Over the whole population it
is known that the proportion of individuals with blood of type 1 is 50%, the
proportion with type 2 blood is 45%, and the remaining proportion is type 3.
Revise the experimenters calculation of the probability of H3 given A, so that it
admits a long-run frequency interpretation. Is H3 still the most likely hypothesis
given A?
1.r.8 Cards are dealt from a well-shuffled standard deck until the first heart appears.
1. What is the probability that exactly 5 deals are required?
2. What is the probability that 5 or fewer deals are required?
3. What is the probability that exactly 3 deals were required, given that 5 or fewer
were required?
1.6.6 Suppose you roll a fair six-sided die repeatedly until the first time you roll a number
that you have rolled before.
1. For each r = 1, 2, . . . calculate the probability pr that you roll exactly r times.
2. Without calculation, write down the value of p1 + p2 + + p10 . Explain.
3. Check that your calculated values of pr have this value for their sum.