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Accounting for Data Uncertainty

Jovan Nahman and Dragoslav Peric

AbstractThe effects of uncertain input data on the performance evaluation of a distribution system are analyzed. A criterion is introduced for assessing the grade of uncertainty of the results obtained in the calculation of maximum loads, voltage drops,

energy losses, and characteristic reliability indices of a network if

some input parameters are only guesses based on limited experience, measurements, and/or statistical data. Reasonable outputs

bounds are determined based upon the shape of the function measuring the uncertainty. High uncertainty of a result obtained indicates that a re-examination of relevant uncertain input data would

be recommendable for a more precise quantification. The method

proposed is applied to a real life example for illustration.

Index TermsDistribution systems, fuzzy mathematics, operating performances, uncertainty.

I. INTRODUCTION

distribution networks, various network performances have

to be analyzed. The most important among them are the maximum currents to be carried by the distribution feeders and associated voltage drops, annual energy losses, and the reliability of

supplying consumers demands. Unfortunately, many of the inputs forming the basis for these studies are often assessed with

some uncertainty, for many reasons. The annual load duration

diagrams of consumers load demands can be only roughly predicted. The same is the case with the failure transition rates of

network elements and associated renewal duration which are

important for reliability evaluation [1]. As these input data substantially affect the results of network analysis, it is important to

have some idea how uncertain are the results obtained if some

of the inputs can be only roughly assessed. An adequate tool for

incorporating the uncertainties in distribution network studies

and for assessing the grade of acceptability of the results obtained can provide the fuzzy algebra. Some applications in reliability analysis of power systems using fuzzy arithmetic and

fuzzy logic have been suggested in the past [2][4]. Fuzzy technique was also successfully used in consumer demand prediction [5], [6]. This paper proposes a method for quantifying the

uncertainties of the input and output data in a distribution system

performance analysis. The method models the input and output

quantities in distribution network analysis as fuzzy variables.

The uncertainty grade for a fuzzy variable is measured by the

interval encompassing its most credible values. This interval is

obtained by weighting the possible intervals of the values of the

Manuscript received November 22, 1999.

J. Nahman is with the University of Belgrade, Belgrade 11000, Yugoslavia.

D. Peric is with the School of Electrical Engineering, Belgrade 11000, Yugoslavia.

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TPWRD.2003.813868

Fig. 1.

Such a quantification of the uncertainties makes it possible to

judge the credibility of the results of network analysis based

upon uncertain inputs. If the uncertainty grade of a result obtained is too high, some of the most uncertain and most effective

inputs should be reconsidered for a more precise quantification.

II. MATHEMATICAL MODEL

A. Engineering Interpretation of Fuzzy Algebra

Consider a variable which values are not known with certainty. This variable may be modeled as a normalized unimodal

fuzzy number (FN) as depicted in Fig. 1 [7]. FN models of

guessed quantities are further on denoted by capital letters.

( cut) is introduced that may be

Parameter

interpreted as the level of uncertainty of the guess made at .

To each , an interval of possible values is attached with

and upper bound

. For increasing , these

lower bound

bounds become closer to one another tending to a single value

.

as approaches to 1. This value is the kernel of , denoted

is the highest of all as the presumption

The uncertainty of

that has exactly a specified value must be taken with the least

confidence. If is modeled by a triangular FN, then this FN is

.

completely defined by the triple

, may be determined

The uncertainty grade of , for

as

(1)

NAHMAN AND PERIC: DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION ACCOUNTING FOR DATA UNCERTAINTY

695

values obtained by weighting all possible intervals of these

values by associated uncertainty levels. This interval may be

considered as a most reasonable prediction of variable values

concerning its uncertainty. Interval bounds are given in relative

terms with the kernel of being the base value.

may

The variable lower bound relative declination of

be determined as

(2)

The corresponding declination of

(3)

It is clear that

(4)

On the basis of the former definitions, the following bounds

for variable values may be taken as most reasonable for engineering decisions made under uncertainty

(5)

B. Calculation Flow

of inputs ,

. If

Presume that is a function

inputs are modeled as FNs, to encompass their uncertainty, then

is also a FN which may be formally expressed as

(6)

has to be conTo define , its characteristic function

structed. In order to determine this function, a series of values

is generated from the whole interval (0,1). For each , the lower

and upper bounds of are determined as

A. Maximum Feeder Branch Currents

(7)

for

(8)

and

for all define

.

Bounds

equals the minimum of

As can be observed from (7),

if values are within intervals (8). These intervals

function

for for

are determined by the lower and upper bonds of

equals the maximum

which the calculation is performed.

obtained for the same intervals of values.

of function

and

is trivial if

is a monoThe calculation of

tonic increasing or decreasing function with regard to all arguments being within the intervals in (8). In the first case,

is obtained from

for

and

for

,

. In the latter case,

should be inserted to

and

to obtain

. As will be shown hereobtain

after, all distribution network quantities of interest are monotonic increasing functions of their arguments which makes the

analysis easy and straightforward.

presented in Fig. 2. It is supposed that the feeder consists of

branches characterized by their length and the consumer demand load at their receiving end. The branches can be separated

from each other by opening the disconnectors at their sending

ends that are not marked for simplicity.

To determine the maximum feeder branch currents and maximum voltage drops along the feeder, the peak rms magnitudes

of load demand currents are used as input variables. They are

presumed to be fuzzy variables quantified by triangular fuzzy

numbers. The following relationships correlate these currents

with currents flowing through feeder branches [8], [9] (here and

further on fuzzy variables are designated by capital letters)

(9)

,

are by 1 column vectors of real and

where

,

are

imaginary parts of branch currents while

corresponding column vectors of load demand peak currents.

696

by

Boolean matrix

are

otherwise.

(10)

.

It is implied that

Equations (9) and (10) simply state that the current flowing

through a feeder branch is equal to the sum of the load demand

currents supplied by this branch.

for the feeder in Fig. 2

For illustration, the first 5 rows of

are (see equation at the bottom of the page).

From (9), it follows that the maximum branch currents also

are fuzzy quantities. The rms of the current in branch equals

(11)

row vector built of the row

elements

values

affect the voltage phase shifts that are

while drops

very small usually. Therefore

of feeder branches. Then, the voltage drops at load points are

(18)

where

.

of

is a 1 by

Fig. 3.

(12)

which means, according to (16), that voltage drops are practically monotonic increasing functions of load point demand currents. This facilitates the calculation of their bounds for various

uncertainty levels .

(13)

where

per unit length . From (12), it is clear that the elements of by

are fuzzy quantities as they depend

1 column vector

.

on

Bearing in mind that

(14)

with and being the real and imaginary parts of , from (12)

and (14), it follows:

(15)

where

current load levels of given duration, spread in descending order.

The load levels are treated as uncertain data and quantified by

corresponding triangular FNs. In this application, three load

levels are presumed to be sufficiently representative: maximum,

medium, and minimum load level (Fig. 3). The load level duration and the power factor are presumed to be the same for all

consumer loads. Consumer loads have been considered to be of

the same type and synchronous which means that all consumers

have the characteristic load levels approximately at the same

time. However, the load levels and their uncertainty grades for

various consumers generally differ from consumer to consumer.

Based upon the assumptions made, the annual energy losses

equal

(16)

The rms values of voltage drops at feeder load points are

and

with

and

(17)

being elements of vectors

, respectively. As known, the voltage

(19)

It is clear from (19), that the energy losses are monotonic increasing functions of load demand current maximum, medium,

and minimum values represented as fuzzy variables. It makes it

bounds for various .

possible to easily determine

NAHMAN AND PERIC: DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION ACCOUNTING FOR DATA UNCERTAINTY

697

TABLE I

LOAD DEMAND CURRENTS

D. Feeder Reliability

TABLE II

BRANCH LENGTHS

of a branch, say , interrupts the supply to all branches and

associated loads fed by this branch during its repair. Hence, the

expected energy not supplied due to branch failures is

(20)

It is assumed that the feeder failure rate per unit length , sustained interruption duration , and the average real power deare fuzzy variables as all of these quanmands of customers

tities cannot be predicted with certainty.

Here, with reference to Fig. 3

TABLE III

NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS

(21)

being the rated network voltage and

year.

with

The total expected energy not supplied annually equals

(22)

The second term in (22) encompasses the energy not supplied

is the uncertain duration of this

during the fault location.

activity.

The system average interruption frequency index is defined

as the ratio of the total number of customer interruptions and

the total number of customers served

(23)

The system average interruption duration index is defined as

the ratio of the sum of customer interruption durations and the

total number of customers

(24)

with

served at feeder load points.

,

, and

are functions of fuzzy variAs

ables, these indices are fuzzy variables too. We can observe

is a monotony increasing

from (20), (21), and (22) that

function of consumer currents, failure transition rate per unit

and

are profeeder length, and repair duration.

is also a linearly increasing function of fault repair and

location duration. Thus, lower and upper bounds for all of these

three performance indices can be easily obtained for each uncertainty level from the lower and upper bounds of the associated

aforementioned input data for the same .

IV. APPLICATION EXAMPLE

A. Feeder Data

A real life example of a 10-kV overhead feeder is considered,

that is displayed in Fig. 2. The main feeder data are given in

Tables IIV. The data are acquired from experience and limited

measurement. Triangular fuzzy numbers quantifying the input

.

is

quantities are given in the general form

the guess used in the conventional analysis.

B. Calculation Procedure

The calculation procedure comprises the following steps.

and

for

1) Using (10) and (13), determine matrices

the feeder under consideration.

698

TABLE IV

OTHER SAMPLE DATA

from their membership functions.

and (18), determine the lower bounds of branch peak

currents and voltage drops for

.

4) Using (9) and data from step 2, determine the lower

,

, and

bounds of branch currents

for

and insert these values in (19) to calculate the

.

lower bound of annual energy losses for

,

, and

5) By inserting the lower bounds of

for

in (21), the lower bound of elements

for

are obtained.

of power demands

NAHMAN AND PERIC: DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION ACCOUNTING FOR DATA UNCERTAINTY

TABLE V

CALCULATION RESULTS

However, the annual energy losses, which depend on the load

duration diagrams of consumers, characterized by three load

levels for each load point, are more considerably affected by

the fuzziness of input data. The uncertainty of the

is

high if all input data are fuzzy. This particularly holds for the

, indicating that

might be much

upper bound of

greater than its kernel value which would be taken as relevant

in the conventional approach. For illustration, from (5) and the

corresponding data in Table V, we obtain the following bounds

if all inputs are uncertain

of

MWh

6) By inserting

values from the previous step and lower

in (20) and (22), lower

bounds of , , and for

is obtained for

.

bound of

, and for

7) By inserting lower bounds of ,

in (23) and (24), the corresponding lower bounds of

and

are calculated.

8) Determine upper bounds of all fuzzy input data for

from their membership functions.

9) Using the data from step 8 repeat steps 37 with upper

bounds to determine the upper bounds of all considered

.

performance indices for

, and repeat steps 29

10) Increase for, say

for this increased value of to determine lower and

upper bounds of all considered performance indices for

the new value of .

11) Repeat step 10 by gradually increasing values until

is reached. In such a way, the data for the

value

construction of membership functions of all considered

performance indices are obtained.

12) Using (1) and (5) and the data on membership functions obtained in previous steps, determine the uncertainty grades and reasonable bounds of considered performance indices.

C. Calculation Results

Table V quotes the results of the analysis. The effects of uncertain input data upon the uncertainty of the quantities characterizing the distribution system performances are examined. The

first column lists the analyzed outputs. The next three columns

give the calculated kernels (these coincide with the values obtainable using the conventional, crisp approach), and the associated certainty weighted percentage bounds of declination of

kernels. The last column indicates which input quantity is taken

to be uncertain and modeled as the corresponding fuzzy number

according to Tables IIV. Characteristic functions calculated for

the analyzed outputs are presented in Fig. 4.

The maximum load current that is flowing through branch 1

and the maximum voltage drop occurring at node 43 depend on

the load peak currents only. The uncertainty of both of these

699

MWh

(25)

The fuzziness of

transition rate and may be taken as comparatively low. Howis more pronounced as it is addiever, the fuzziness of

tionally affected by fault location and repair times that we usually cannot precisely predict. It is worth noting that upper bound

are high in absolute terms and much greater

declinations

for the majority of the analyzed outputs. This means

than

that, in reality, the crisp valuesbased analysis might underestimate the examined performance indices and lead to too optimistic conclusions. The uncertainty of the calculated outputs is

tolerable if only one among the inputs is fuzzy to some extent.

value

The fuzziness of two or more inputs produces a high

that is greater than the sum of the declinations generated by the

inputs individually.

V. CONCLUSIONS

A method for assessing and incorporating the effects of uncertain data upon the performance analysis of distribution systems

is proposed. Criteria for determining the uncertainty of both the

input and output quantities are suggested as well as a reasonable way to determine the bounds of calculated performance indices reflecting the uncertainties of input data. The application

of the suggested approach to a real life example has shown that

is the performance index most affected by the unthe

certainties of input data and should not be taken as a relevant

index for any decision making unless the associated inputs are

well known. Second most input data sensitive parameters are

and annual energy losses but to a considerably lower

degree. Maximum feeder currents and voltage drops and the

index are moderately fuzzy.

REFERENCES

[1] R. E. Brown and J. R. Ochoa, Distribution system reliability: Default

data and model validation, IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 13, pp.

704709, May 1998.

[2] V. Miranda, Fuzzy reliability analysis of power systems, in Proc. 12th

Power Syst. Comput. Conf., Dresden, Aug. 1923, 1996, pp. 558566.

[3] J. Backes, H. J. Koglin, and L. Klein, A flexible tool for planning transmission and distribution networks with special regard to uncertain reliability criteria, in Proc. 12th Power Syst. Comput. Conf., Dresden, Aug.

1923, 1996, pp. 567573.

[4] J. Nahman, Fuzzy logic based network reliability evaluation, Microelectron. Reliab., vol. 37, no. 8, pp. 11611164, 1997.

[5] M. Chow, J. Zhu, and H. Tram, Application of fuzzy multi-objective

decision making in spatial load forecasting, IEEE Trans. Power Syst.,

vol. 13, pp. 11851190, Aug. 1998.

700

fuzzy neural computation, with special emphasis on weekend and public

holiday forecasting, IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 10, pp. 18971903,

Nov. 1995.

[7] G. J. Klir and B. Yuan, Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic. Englewood Cliffs,

NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1995.

[8] M. Papadopoulos, N. D. Hatziargyriou, and M. E. Papadakis, Graphic

aided interactive analysis of radial distribution networks, IEEE Trans.

Power Delivery, vol. 2, pp. 12971302, Oct. 1987.

[9] J. Burke, Power Distribution Engineering. New York: Marcel Dekker,

1994, p. 96.

Jovan Nahman was born in Belgrade, Yugoslavia. He received the Dipl. Eng.

Grade and the TechD degree in electric power engineering from the Faculty of

Electrical Engineering at the University in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, in 1960 and

1969, respectively.

Currently, he is a Professor with the Power System Department at the University of Belgrade, where he has been since 1960.

Dipl.Eng., M.Sc., and PF.D. degrees in power engineering from the Faculty

of Electrical Engineering at the University in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, in 1983,

1989, and 1997, respectively.

Currently, he is a Professor with the School of Electrical Engineering, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. His main fields of interest are distribution systems operation

and planning and computer applications.

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