Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
01 M
ature marketing: A winning formula
for a new era in telecoms
01
2003 - 08
1st order
2nd order
3rd order
Overall telecoms
revenues
Mobile revenues
Fixed revenues
Note: Tree analysis in order to identify most important explanatory variables for mature markets growth (dependent variable: telecoms revenue pool
independent variables: macroeconomic; industry structure in each market; disruptions in the market)
SOURCE: McKinsey
First, overall growth in mature markets has been fundamentally driven by further penetration of wirelessbased services, with mobile broadband and data services representing the majority of that growth over the last
four to five years. Interestingly, the markets with the
highest penetration of mobile broadband and data services show the lowest growth rates for mobile and overall telecoms services revenues. This suggests that such
penetration is the natural result of a strong push, given
the absence of growth in traditional voice services.
Second, GDP growth and disposable income are not
sound predictors of telecoms growth. In fact, from 1981
to 2008, the correlation between sector growth and
GDP growth was just 0.17. This is due to the small share
of spending that telecoms represents for most consumers and businesses. It also results from the growing role
of telecoms as a must-have basic service. Our analysis
shows that regulatory conditions in particular, the
number of MNOs for mobile and the socio- and geodemographics for fixed are better indicators of a particular markets ability to generate growth.
Surprisingly, local demographics also explain local
market performance. Those markets with higher
immigration are experiencing greater revenue growth,
especially in mobile services. In Spain, for example,
02
20%
Handsets
Equipment
Online advertising
Search
850
66%
160
63%
90
75%
82%
24
30
SOURCE: McKinsey
10
03
Stagnating
Focus of competition
SOURCE: McKinsey
11
12
owner of the pipe. With few exceptions, telecoms operators will find that they can learn a great deal from other
customer-facing sectors of the economy in terms of marketing and sales.
***
All in all, we believe that competitive dynamics will fuel
a permanent search for growth opportunities, representing a new era for telecoms operators. This new era
will be one in which growth and profitability are primarily driven by individual corporate strategies rather
than by substantial differences in local market regulation and sociodemographics. Those operators able to
define their own ecosystem to monetize data services
consumption and make a step change in their marketing
and sales capabilities will secure a first-mover and perhaps an ongoing advantage.
Alexander Dahlke
is a Principal in McKinseys
Hamburg office.
alexander_dahlke@mckinsey.com
Miguel Fonseca
is an Associate Principal in McKinseys
Lisbon office.
miguel_fonseca@mckinsey.com
Gloria Macias-Lizaso
is a Principal in McKinseys Madrid office.
gloria_macias@mckinsey.com
Nimal Manuel
is a Principal in McKinseys
Kuala Lumpur office.
nimal _manuel@mckinsey.com
Pedro Mendona
is a Director in McKinseys Lisbon office.
pedro_mendonca@mckinsey.com
Andrew Pickersgill
is a Principal in McKinseys Toronto office.
andrew_pickersgill@mckinsey.com