HARVARD UNIVERSITY EXTENSION SCHOOL

COURSE SYLLABUS
Spring 2013
Course Number and Title:
MGMT E 5070 Data Mining and Forecast Management ( 23274 )
Class Day and Time:

Location:

Tuesday, 7:40 9:40 pm

Emerson Hall, Room 104

Website: http://isites.harvard.edu/course/ext-23274/2013/spring
Professor:
Philip A. Vaccaro, PhD
Full Professor and Former Chair
Marketing and Decision Sciences
Bertolon School of Business
Salem State University

Telephone: 978-542-6836
Fax:
978-542-6027
e-mail: philip.vaccaro@salemstate.edu

Introduction:
Every organization, large and small, private and public, uses forecasting and data mining
either explicitly or implicitly, because it must plan to meet the conditions of the future for
which it has imperfect knowledge. The need for forecasting and data mining cuts across
all functional lines. They are the essential inputs for the practice of operations, strategic,
crisis, change, financial, enrollment, innovation, and quality management, as well as the
practice of customer relations marketing and marketing research. Consider the following
questions that dictate the need for forecasting and data mining.

If we increase our advertising budget by 10%, how will sales be affected?

How is the market value of a home affected by the presence or absence of a
swimming pool or patio?
What revenue might the state government expect over the next two years?
What are the chances of a castastrophic power failure or natural disaster on our
operations, and to what degree will they be affected?
What factors can we identify that will help explain the variability in monthly unit
sales?

-2

Will there be a recession? If so, when will it begin, how severe will it be, and
when will it end?
When will we need to readjust our manufacturing and service delivery systems, in
order to maintain our quality standards?

Organizations that cannot react quickly to changing conditions and cannot foresee the
future with any degree of accuracy are doomed to extinction.
Course Description:
This course introduces nonmathematical managers to the major quantitative models
designed for sound demand, competitive, and system forecasting in todays complex and
increasingly uncertain business environment. The course is useful for multiple business
disciplines, including general management, marketing, and finance. Topics include game
theory, Markov processes, statistical quality control, exponential smoothing, and seasonally adjusted trend analysis. Emphasis is placed on a general understanding of theory,
mechanics, application potential, available software packages, and templates.
Prerequisite:
A rudimentary knowledge of algebra, statistics, and familiarity with spreadsheets.
Course Objectives:

To provide an introduction to the field of forecasting and its interface with

business administration and computer science.
To introduce the student to specific forecasting techniques / models in wide use:
their origin, purposes, strengths, limitations, and future.
To inculcate an awareness of the usefulness and power of the computer in this
field and the fields increasing dependency on the computer.
To develop the students ability to identify forecasting opportunities; to identify
the critical variables; to build or select an appropriate model; and to develop an
accurate forecast.
Major Phases of the Course ( see the section below in this syllabus for
assignments associated with each phase. )

qualitative, time-series, and causal model overview

exponential smoothing techniques
simple regression models: linear and non-linear
multiple regression models: linear and non-linear
correlation analysis, decomposition, seasonal variation, and trend

-3

significance testing
statistical quality control systems
markov processes and game theory
monitoring and controlling forecasts

Exit Competencies:
The student shall have demonstrated the ability to identify appropriate forecasting
applications; to identify the critical variables; to build or select a suitable forecasting
model; and to develop a series of forecasts that are timely, accurate, economical, and easy
to understand, use, and maintain.
Required Materials:
Text: Barry Render, Ralph Stair, Jr., Michael Hanna, Quantitative Analysis for
Management, Prentice-Hall, 11th Edition, 2011.
Software: Free downloads from www.pearsonhighered.com/render.
Course Activities to Meet Objectives:
Student is required to take four (4) examinations that will test theoretical
knowledge and practical problem-solving skills.
Student will be assigned graded homework on a weekly basis for purposes
of developing proficiency and accuracy, both written and computer-based, in
the application of course models and techniques.
Course Grading Policies:
Assignments:
o Homework assignments are due for the class session in which they are
covered. In the event of illness or business necessity, homework assignments may be mailed, or faxed, or e-mailed to the instructor before the
start of the next class session.
o Written and computer assignments will be announced in class.
o Computer malfunctions or other technical problems are not acceptable
excuses for missed deadlines.
o Copies should be made of all assignments for use in class discussion.

-4Examinations:
o Four ( 4 ) examinations will be given during the semester.
o The examinations will cover the assigned readings in the text, lecture
material, and comments made in conjunction with the homework
assignments.
Attendance:

Regular attendance is appreciated.

Students with excessive unexcused absences may either be dropped from
the class roll by the instructor or face an automatic loss of points from the
final point total.
Each student is responsible for keeping abreast of all reading assignments,
homework assignments, and lecture material, whether or not he/she is present in class.

Grading:

Grades will be determined according to the following weights:

Examination
1st
2nd
3rd
Final
Homework

Weight
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%

Homework Assignments:

Assigned on a weekly basis.

Collected before class.
Returned in the next class as satisfactory or unsatisfactory.
Answers to the homework assignments are presented and thoroughly
discussed in class.

-5Schedule of Assignments:
The schedule given below is tentative and may vary due to class progress.
If a class is missed, check for changes in assignments with the instructor by
e-mail or telephone.
o All students are expected to be present at the final examination period, or, in the
case of a take-home term or final examination, to submit it in accordance with the
date/time specifications of the instructor. There are no excuses.
o
o

Date
1/29/13
2/05/13
2/12/13
2/19/13
2/26/13
3/05/13
3/12/13
3/19/13
3/26/13
4/02/13
4/09/13
4/16/13
4/23/13
4/30/13
5/07/13
5/14/13

Session
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Topic
Forecast Overview
Error Measurement
Moving Average Models
Monitoring and Control
Simple Regression
Multiple Regression
Nonlinear Regression
Spring Vacation
Correlation Analysis
Trend, Seasonal Analysis
Decomposition
Significance Testing
Game Theory
Markov Analysis
Statistical Quality Ctrl
Final Examination

Chapter(s)
5
5
5
5
4 , Readings
4 , Readings
4
4
5
5
5
Module 4-1
15
16
-

Exam

I (1st 5)

II (4)

III(2nd 5)

(4-1,15,16)

Withdrawal from Course:

Students should refer to the Extension School policies on the website:
http://www.extension.harvard.edu/registration/registration-guidelines/course-changeswithdrawals

-6Disability Services:
The Extension School is committed to creating an accessible academic community where
students and instructors with disabilities have equal opportunity to participate in, contribute to, and benefit from its academic programs. Services for students with disabilities
are approved and coordinated by Academic Services. Students should contact Disability
Services Coordinator at 617-495-0977 or 617-495-9419 TTY. Students should also visit
the Extension School website for more information about services for students with
disabilities.
Computer/Software:

Students are required to have computer accounts.

This course is NOT designed to provide in-depth training on specific software
packages but allows for a general understanding of the utilization of such packages and templates in quantitative forecasting.
There are no scheduled computer lab sessions for this course.
The required software for this course might be packaged with every new copy of
the textbook, or a companion website will permit free software downloads.
If the student CD-ROM is misplaced, or if a used textbook is purchased, the
companion website is available for a free replacement software download.
Many required software application assignments will be done with QM for
Windows and EXCEL QM, easy-to-use decision support programs which
assume no prior programming skills.
Sample spreadsheets with step-by-step instructions are included in the text and
power point presentations.