Evaluating WRF-ARW v3.5.

1 Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Orissa

Taufiq Hassan Mozumder (St. Id. 20131228)
Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology,
Gwangju, South Korea.
Contact: taufiq@gist.ac.kr

Abstract
Tropical Cyclone Orissa was a category 5 storm that intensified rapidly through the Bay of
Bengal and made landfall in Orissa state, India on the 29th October 1999. To determine whether
Cyclone tracks and intensity can be understood with varied physics and numerical methods
involved an investigation on Orissa track by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
was done. Three simulations were performed with one domain of 27 km resolution. We found
that the cyclones track, timing and intensity are sensitive to microphysics, convection and
boundary layer schemes. It was also tested whether perturbation pressure can be used to track
cyclone. We conclude that it is also possible to estimate the intensity with perturbation pressure in
the surface. These results suggest that the WRF-ARW simulation was pretty accurate in
estimating the path and intensity of the cyclone.

Key Words: super cyclone, WRF model, track, intensity, perturbation pressure

1. Introduction
Tropical Cyclone (TC) Orissa was the

through Bay of Bengal, continually gaining

strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in

intensity until reaching category 5 by the

the

began

time it made landfall at Orissa, India

cyclogenesis northwest of Malay Peninsula

coastline in the early hours of October 29th.

North

Indian

Ocean

that

on 27th October 1999. It tracked northwest

The TC invoked up to 270 km/h wind speed

poor preparation. The storm passed to the

at the core area which produced more than

south of Myanmar and continued to

20 feet tidal waves and took away valuable

intensify

lives of nearly 10,000 people (Kalsi, 2006).

Interestingly, the cyclone weakened slightly

It affected the state of Orissa for more than

to a 255 km/h cyclone with minimum

36 hours. The impact of these factors was

central pressure of 912 mbar just before

massive on people and environment due to

landfall on Orissa (Kalsi, 2006).

over

the

Bay

of

Bengal.

Figure 1: Tropical cyclone Orissa track from 25th Oct to 31st Oct 1999 (Kalsi, 2006)
It is assumed that the cyclone track was

is a matter of study. Their relation may

peculiar due to its unstable formation and

contain information on tracking the cyclone.

rapid intensification. It did not make landfall

The circumstances and consequences of TC

th

until Oct 29 1999, when the TC begun to

form in 25th Oct 1999. Due to Orissa
cyclones long duration over the Bay of
Bengal, it gained more energy. However,
how this energy was involved with the storm

Orissa described above make it an important

and interesting case study. A weather model
can be utilized to explore and comprehend
the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that

governed the devastating storms formation

The initial conditions for the data cases were

and life cycle. This type of analysis can be

preprocessed with a separate package called

done by regional numerical models such as

WRF Preprocessing System (WPS). WPS

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)

works in three steps. Firstly, it defines the

model (Pattanaik, 2009). This study intends

static fields and grid domains. In the next

to find the track and simulate the cyclone

stage, it decodes the external analysis and

once again with WRF-ARW v3.5.1 and

forecast data. Finally, interpolates the data

investigate the sensitivity of the cyclone on

horizontally. The real time analysis was

different physical and numerical schemes.

obtained

from

National

Centers

for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP). For the

diagnostic study the NCEP FNL analysis at
2. Experimental Design and Methods
2.1 Model Set-up

1 1 grid was used during the cyclone

period of Orissa from 26th October to 29th
October 1999.

This study uses a Weather Research and

Forecast model with non-hydrostatic core.
This model is provided by National Center

2.2 Simulated Cyclone Tracking

for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The

NCAR version 3.5.1 of Advanced Research
WRF (ARW) model was used. Model
domain consists of 73E to 109 E and 2.4N
to 24.8N with a horizontal resolution of
27km and 27 vertical sigma levels. This
domain was set with Mercator projection.

The theory behind tracking a cyclone

depends on the measurement of the wind
speed. Alternatively, sea surface pressure
(slp) and vorticity can pin-point the eye of a
cyclone (Chan, 1982). Unfortunately, these
WRF simulations did not provide any

variables such as wind speed, slp or

vorticity.

In

this

particular

study,

Perturbation Pressure was used to track the

cyclone. The basis on selecting perturbation
pressure was its proportional relation to
vorticity.

It

perturbation

was
occurs

found

that

pressure

an

initially

when

symmetric rotating updraft develops in a

vertically-shared environment.

Pnl - 2

2.3 Physics Sensitivity Simulation

The following physics parameters were
tested for the simulation of TC Orissa:
microphysics option, which affects and
governs physical processes such as rainfall
pattern and ice formation (Hong, 2004).
OLR schemes define and govern long wave
radiation transfer. Cumulus parameterization
represents and define atmospheric and
moisture, cloud tendencies and surface
rainfall; the planetary boundary Layer (PBL)

This equation simply relates pressure with

which represents boundary layer fluxes and
vorticity. It interprets that pressure will fall
interactions such as heat moisture and
proportional to the square of the relative
momentum. This also includes vertical
vertical vorticity. Also, TC is areas of
diffusion and mixing. Similarly, ISFFLX
relatively low pressure in the troposphere,
will define whether there is any heat and
with greatest pressure perturbation occurring
moisture flux from the surface. On the other
at the lowest altitude (Symonds, 2013). This
hand, ISFTCFLX term modifies surface
characteristic of TC serves a way in
bulk drag and the exchange of energy
determining the eye of the cyclone and
between the TC and the ocean surface. A
tracks it without difficulty in WRF model.
simple one-dimensional ocean mixed layer
model (OML) was used along with a 6th
order numerical diffusion verification.

Table 1: Summary of WRF physics options

Details of each WRF run and physics

tested in each run

involved with it are in table 1. The resulting

Model Run

01

02

03

Microphysics

Kessler

Ferrier

Kessler

scheme

scheme

OLR scheme

RRTM

RRTM

RRTM

Cumulus

Kain-

Betts-

Kain-

option

Fritsch

Miller-

Fritsch

(New

Janjic

(New

eta)

scheme

eta)

Boundary

YSU

MYNN

YSU

Layer (PBL)

scheme

2.5

scheme

TC from each simulation was analyzed and

contrasted by tracking the cyclone with
perturbation pressure. Perturbation pressure
development with time was investigated to
find out the relation with TC intensity and
how it intensified throughout its life cycle. It
was also used to locate distinct instances and
relate it with the observed data.

3. Results and Discussion

level
To determine the track of the super cyclone

TKE
ISFFLX

Fluxes

No

Fluxes

from

Flux

from

the

the

surface

surface

Orissa

1999,

three

different

model

simulations were done. Figure 2 depicts the

most accurate simulation of Orissa cyclone.
The TC was tracked from first WRF run. It
was found that the model was successful in

ISFTCFLX

No

Default

Default

OML

No

Yes

Yes

50m

50m

The following curve (figure 3) shows how

Yes

No

intensity varied throughout Orissas life-

estimating the strength of the TC.

6th-oreder

No

cycle for model run 1 and 3. This figure

represents the pressure perturbation with

This observation indicates that perturbation

hourly simulation. It was found that

pressure

perturbation pressure was able to depict the

accuracy.

can

track

the

cyclone

with

strength of the TC.

Figure 2: Track of TC Orissa from simulation run 1 (the black solid line depicts the path of the
cyclone from 26th Oct to 29th Oct 1999)
Although both of the model shows similar

model simulation no. 1 (UTC 0300 Oct 29

trend, they estimate different strength of the

1999). The curve trend shows how the TC

cyclone. It was also found that the highest

intensified while it stayed over the Bay of

intensified hour was exactly the same from

Bengal. It dipped into -4993 pa at UTC 0300

2000

Perturbation Pressure (pa)

0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85
-2000
-4000
Model run 1
-6000

Model run 3

-8000
-10000
-12000
Time (hours)

Figure 3: Perturbation pressure change with time (Intensity is inversely related to perturbation
pressure)
on Oct 29. However, it started to weaken

Why model 2 failed still poses a huge scope

from that point on before striking on Orissa

of study. But this study gives us a hint on

state. This also agrees the the observation.

that. If we consider the changes done in

For model run 3 the highest peak was found

physics and numerical methods, we may be

at UTC 0400 hours on Oct 29th 1999. It

able to pin-point the reason with further

showed a more smooth development of

research. It is known from previous study

intensity and deviated landfall from model

that

run 1.

particularly sensitive (Parker, 2013).We

On the other hand, model run 2 could not

estimate the track. It showed a northward
track for a while and later on dissipated.

the

cumulus

parameterization

is

propose that the effect of surface flux may

have played an important role here. It could
also be a result of different numerical
diffusion

method.

Nevertheless,

it

is

recommended that further WRF model

Hong S Y, Dudhia J and Chen S H 2004 A

simulations on tracking TC required for

revised approach to ice microphysical

understanding the physics behind storm

processes for bulk parameterization of

formation and intensification.

clouds and precipitation; Mon. Wea. Rev.

132 103-120.

4. Conclusion

Symonds, Steve (2013-11-17). Highs and

Lows;

The study has found that simulating a TC

event accurately requires understanding of

Wild

Weather

(Australian

Broadcasting Corporation). Archived from

the original on October 11, 2007.

the physics and numerical methods used in

solving certain phenomenon. Most accurate
simulation was found from YSU scheme as

S. R. Kalsi. Orissa super cyclone A

Synopsis; Mausam, 57, 1 (January 2006).

PBL and allowing flux inflow from surface.

Parker, Chelsea, Amanda Lynch Evaluating

We can also conclude that perturbation

WRF

pressure can be used to track a tropical

Cyclone Yasi; Papers Presented at the 14th

cyclone accurately.

Annual WRF Users' Workshop (June, 2013).

v3.4.1

simulations

of

Tropical

D R Pattanaik and Y V Rama Rao Track

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1354-1374.

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Science, 2009.