TNe

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research
3/25/2013
Recommendations and opinions in this material are based solely on technical analysis. You can find
fundamentally-based recommendations in our FI & FX CEE Insights.
Current recommendations:
1) Brent long, open @ 108.8, cl @ 116, stop-loss @ 106. Lock in 112/110. Speculation on rebound from 108 level.
Time horizon: 6 weeks
Instrument
Lead
Brent
Direction
short
long
Open Opened
2243 4.3.2013
108.8 25.3.2013
Target
1960
116
Stop-loss
P/L (%) Comment
2310 +2.43%
3 weeks remaining
106
6 weeks remaining
Summary
EUR/CZK
Testing of 25.80 level should continue for some time. Breakthrough of that level is easily possible, because of clearly
prevailing upward momentum without overbought conditions.
EUR/PLN
Consolidation above moving averages seems most likely technical scenario. 4.19 level should cap possible rebound.
EUR/HUF
Euro is clearly overbought, so consolidation or correction is likely.
EUR/RON
Upward momentum is strengthening, so testing of 200-day moving average is likely.
EUR/TRY
Continuation of consolidation is likely. Breakthrough of 200-day moving average is somewhat more likely than breakthrough of 2.36
level/60-day moving average.
EUR/USD
Room for further decline should be limited by still oversold euro, so continuation of consolidation is likely.
EUR/JPY
Consolidation around 123 level/20-day moving average should continue for some time.
EUR/CHF
We expect rebound from 200-day moving average.
Brent
Consolidation around 108 level or even correction to at least 110 level are likely because of oversold conditions.
Analyst: Lubo Mokr
lmokras@csas.cz
Erste Group Technician
Page 1
3/25/2013
EUR/CZK
Main trend: consolidation
Short-term trend: growth

R1: 25.80 top, consolidation
S1: 25.45 bottom
S2: 25.20 consolidation
S3: 25.00 psychological, bottom
S4: 24.80 consolidation
S5: 24.65 bottom of consolidation range
S6: 24.50 low
Koruna is in consolidation in 25.45-25.80 range and

testing 25.80 level.
MACD is in rising trend above zero level.
Both ROCs are in rising trend above zero level.
RSI is in rising trend below overbought level.
Testing of 25.80 level should continue for some time.
Breakthrough of that level is easily possible, because of
clearly prevailing upward momentum without overbought
conditions.
Daily QEURCZK=
17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Price
CZK
SMA; QEURCZK=; 25.3.2013; 25,602; EMA; QEURCZK=; 25.3.2013; 25,493; Cndl; QEURCZK=;
25,8
25.3.2013; 25,760; 25,827; 25,710; 25,740; EMA; QEURCZK=; 25.3.2013; 25,382
25,7
25,6
25,5
25,45
25,4
25,3
25,2
25,2
25,1
25
25
24,9
24,8
24,8
24,7
24,65
24,6
24,5
24,5
24,4
24,3
.123
20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 04 11 18 25 01
VIII 12
IX 12
X 12
XI 12
XII 12
I 13
II 13
III 13
Daily QEURCZK=
28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURCZK=
25.3.2013; 0,021
MACD; QEURCZK=
25.3.2013; 0,067; 0,046
Value
CZK
0
-0,1
.123
ROC; QEURCZK=
25.3.2013; 2,763
ROC; QEURCZK=
25.3.2013; 1,060
EMA; ROC(QEURCZK=)
25.3.2013; 1,812
Value
CZK
0
-2
-4
.123
RSI; QEURCZK=
25.3.2013; 61,952
MARSI; QEURCZK=
25.3.2013; 55,505
Value
CZK
80
60
40
20
.123
03
10
17 24
IX 12
01
08
15 22
X 12
29
05
12 19 26
XI 12
03
10
17 24
XII 12
31
07
14 21
I 13
28
04
11
18
II 13
25
04
11
18 25
III 13
01
Page 2
3/25/2013
EUR/PLN
Zloty rebounded from 4.19 level.
MACD rose above zero level.
Both ROCs are in slow rising trend. ROC20 is testing

zero level. ROC50 is above zero level.
RSI is in correction on rising trend above neutral level.
Consolidation above moving averages seems most

likely technical scenario. 4.19 level should cap possible
rebound.
Short-term trend: consolidation

R4: 4.527 top, psychological
R3: 4.38 top
R2: 4.2733 Fibonacci level
R1: 4.19 top
S1: 4.15 top, consolidation
S2: 4.07 bottoms, Fibonacci level
S3: 3.973 bottom, consolidation
S4: 3.93 tops
Daily QEURPLN=
17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Price
PLN
Cndl; QEURPLN=
25.3.2013; 4,1690; 4,1776; 4,1547; 4,1606
3MA; Cndl(QEURPLN=)
25.3.2013; 4,1548; 4,1461; 4,1490
4,2
4,1917
4,19
4,18
4,17
4,16
4,15
4,14
4,13
4,12
4,11
4,1
4,09
4,08
4,07
50,0% 4,0682
4,06
4,05
.1234
20
27
03
10
VIII 12
17
24
01
08
IX 12
15
22
29
05
X 12
12
19
26
03
10
XI 12
17
24
31
07
14
XII 12
21
28
04
11
I 13
18
25
04
11
II 13
18
25
01
III 13
Daily QEURPLN=
28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURPLN=
25.3.2013; 0,0035
MACD; QEURPLN=
25.3.2013; 0,0042; 0,0007
Value
PLN
0,01
0
-0,01
-0,02
.1234
ROC; QEURPLN=
25.3.2013; 2,126
ROC; QEURPLN=
25.3.2013; 0,087
EMA; ROC(QEURPLN=)
25.3.2013; 1,667
Value
PLN
0
-3
.123
RSI; QEURPLN=
25.3.2013; 51,975
MARSI; QEURPLN=
25.3.2013; 50,846
Value
PLN
80
60
40
20
.123
03
10
17
24
IX 12
01
08
15
X 12
22
29
05
12
19
XI 12
26
03
10
17
XII 12
24
31
07
14
21
I 13
28
04
11
18
II 13
25
04
11
18
25
01
III 13
Page 3
3/25/2013
EUR/HUF
Forint is in slow rising trend above 300 level.
MACD is in slowing rising trend and is strongly

overbought.
Both ROCs are in sideways trend above zero level.
RSI is overbought.
Euro is clearly overbought, so consolidation or

correction is likely.
Main trend: growth

R1: 317 top
S1: 300 tops, psychological
S2: 295 Fibonacci level, top
S3: 290 tops
S4: 283 top
S5: 279 tops
S6: 273 top, Fibonacci level
S7: 270 bottom
Daily QEURHUF=
17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Price
HUF
SMA; QEURHUF=
25.3.2013; 301,36
EMA; QEURHUF=
25.3.2013; 296,18
Cndl; QEURHUF=
25.3.2013; 306,50; 307,40; 305,00; 306,34
EMA; QEURHUF=
25.3.2013; 292,32
306
303
300
297
23,6%
296
294
291
290,03
288
285
38,2%
282,95
282
279
279,02
276
.12
20
27
03
10
VIII 12
17
24
01
08
IX 12
15
22
29
05
X 12
12
19
26
03
10
XI 12
17
24
31
07
14
XII 12
21
28
04
11
I 13
18
25
04
11
II 13
18
25
01
III 13
Daily QEURHUF=
28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURHUF=
25.3.2013; 0,29
MACD; QEURHUF=
25.3.2013; 3,32; 3,03
Value
HUF
2
1
0
-1
.12
ROC; QEURHUF=
25.3.2013; 5,283
ROC; QEURHUF=
25.3.2013; 4,194
EMA; ROC(QEURHUF=)
25.3.2013; 5,048
Value
HUF
0
-5
.123
RSI; QEURHUF=
25.3.2013; 68,373
MARSI; QEURHUF=
25.3.2013; 69,266
Value
HUF
80
60
40
20
.123
03
10
17
24
IX 12
01
08
15
X 12
22
29
05
12
19
XI 12
26
03
10
17
XII 12
24
31
07
14
21
I 13
28
04
11
18
II 13
25
04
11
18
25
01
III 13
Page 4
3/25/2013
EUR/RON

R3: 4,63 top
R2: 4.56 consolidation, gap
R1: 4.48 consolidation
S1: 4.385 top of consolidation range
S2: 4.365 top
S3: 4.2934 consolidation, top
S4: 4.23 Fibonacci level, bottom of consolidation
S5: 4.19 bottoms
Lei weakened to 200-day moving average.

MACD is in rising trend above zero level.
ROC20 is in stalling uptrend above zero level. ROC50
was in rising trend and rebounded from zero level.
RSI is in sideways trend below overbought level.
Upward momentum is strengthening, so testing of 200day moving average is likely.
Daily QEURRON=
17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Price
RON
SMA; QEURRON=
25.3.2013; 4,3825
EMA; QEURRON=
25.3.2013; 4,3988
Cndl; QEURRON=
25.3.2013; 4,4200; 4,4247; 4,4085; 4,4130
EMA; QEURRON=
25.3.2013; 4,4245
4,56
4,53
4,5
4,4799
4,47
4,44
4,41
4,3848
4,38
4,3649
4,35
.1234
20
27
03
10
VIII 12
17
24
01
08
IX 12
15
22
29
05
12
X 12
19
26
03
10
XI 12
17
24
31
07
14
XII 12
21
28
04
11
I 13
18
25
04
11
II 13
18
25
01
III 13
Daily QEURRON=
17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)
MACD; QEURRON=
25.3.2013; 0,0113; 0,0057
MACDF; QEURRON=
25.3.2013; 0,0057
Value
RON
0
-0,01
-0,02
-0,03
.1234
ROC; QEURRON=
25.3.2013; 0,827
ROC; QEURRON=
25.3.2013; -0,675
EMA; ROC(QEURRON=)
25.3.2013; -1,581
Value
RON
0
-2
-4
.123
RSI; QEURRON=
25.3.2013; 61,056
MARSI; QEURRON=
25.3.2013; 56,476
Value
RON
80
60
40
20
.123
20
27
VIII 12
03
10
17
IX 12
24
01
08
15
22
X 12
29
05
12
19
XI 12
26
03
10
17
XII 12
24
31
07
14
21
I 13
28
04
11
18
II 13
25
04
11
18
25
01
III 13
Page 5
3/25/2013
EUR/TRY
Lira is in consolidation in range defined by 200- and

60-day moving averages.
MACD is in slow rising trend below zero level.
Both ROCs are in sideways trend slightly below zero

level.
RSI is in sideways trend close to neutral level.
Continuation of consolidation is likely. Breakthrough

of 200-day moving average is somewhat more likely than
breakthrough of 2.36 level/60-day moving average.

R4: 2.57 top
R3: 2.465 top
R2: 2.3934 top
R1: 2.36 tops
S1: 2.34 bottoms
S2: 2.29 top
S3: 2.26 top
S4: 2.188 top of consolidation range
Daily QEURTRY=
17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Price
TRY
SMA; QEURTRY=
25.3.2013; 2,3489
EMA; QEURTRY=
25.3.2013; 2,3529
Cndl; QEURTRY=
25.3.2013; 2,3544; 2,3623; 2,3453; 2,3517
2,3601
EMA; QEURTRY=
25.3.2013; 2,3425
2,38
2,36
2,34
2,32
2,3
2,2934
2,28
2,26
2,24
2,22
.1234
20
27
03
10
VIII 12
17
24
01
08
IX 12
15
22
29
05
X 12
12
19
26
03
10
XI 12
17
24
31
07
14
XII 12
21
28
04
11
I 13
18
25
04
11
II 13
18
25
01
III 13
Daily QEURTRY=
28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURTRY=
25.3.2013; 0,0010
MACD; QEURTRY=
25.3.2013; -0,0025; -0,0035
Value
TRY
0,02
0,01
0
-0,01
.1234
ROC; QEURTRY=
25.3.2013; -0,030
ROC; QEURTRY=
25.3.2013; -0,449
EMA; ROC(QEURTRY=)
25.3.2013; 0,164
Value
TRY
4
0
.123
RSI; QEURTRY=
25.3.2013; 48,795
MARSI; QEURTRY=
25.3.2013; 46,816
Value
TRY
80
60
40
20
.123
03
10
17
24
IX 12
01
08
15
X 12
22
29
05
12
19
XI 12
26
03
10
17
XII 12
24
31
07
14
21
I 13
28
04
11
18
II 13
25
04
11
18
25
01
III 13
Page 6
3/25/2013
EUR/USD
Dollar is in short-term consolidation below 1.30 level

and testing that level.
MACD is in sideways trend below zero level. It is

oversold.
Both ROCs are in sideways trend below zero level.
RSI is in slow rising trend above oversold level.

Room for further decline should be limited by still oversold
euro, so continuation of consolidation is likely.
Main trend: growth
Short-term trend: decline

R5: 1.4119 Fibonacci level, consolidation, tops
R4: 1.38 Fibonacci level, top
R3: 1.3488 Fibonacci level
R2: 1.327 local low
R1: 1.300 psychological
S1: 1.2673 bottom
S3: 1.217 bottoms
S4: 1.19 important bottom
Daily QEUR=
17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Price
USD
SMA; QEUR=
25.3.2013; 1,3007
EMA; QEUR=
25.3.2013; 1,3130
61,8%
1,3488
Cndl;
QEUR=
25.3.2013; 1,2947; 1,3048; 1,2927; 1,2945
EMA; QEUR=
25.3.2013; 1,3085
1,36
1,35
1,34
1,33
1,32
1,31
1,3
1,2998
1,29
1,28
1,27
1,26
1,25
100,0% 1,2466
1,24
.1234
20
27
03
10
VIII 12
17
24
01
08
IX 12
15
22
29
05
12
X 12
19
26
03
10
XI 12
17
24
31
07
14
XII 12
21
28
04
I 13
11
18
25
04
II 13
11
18
25
01
III 13
Daily QEUR=
28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)
MACDF; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential

25.3.2013; 0,0003
MACD; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential
25.3.2013; -0,0081; -0,0084
Value
USD
0,01
0,005
0
-0,005
.1234
ROC; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 60

25.3.2013; -1,887
ROC; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 20
25.3.2013; -0,896
EMA; ROC(QEUR=); 20
25.3.2013; -0,790
Value
USD
4
0
.123
RSI; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing

25.3.2013; 42,277
MARSI; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing; 14
25.3.2013; 39,738
Value
USD
80
60
40
20
.123
03
10
17
24
01
IX 12
08
15
X 12
22
29
05
12
19
XI 12
26
03
10
17
XII 12
24
31
07
14
21
I 13
28
04
11
18
II 13
25
04
11
18
25
01
III 13
Page 7
3/25/2013
EUR/JPY
Main trend: growth

R3: 129 bottom
R2: 126 top, consolidation
R1: 123 top
S1: 121 tops
S2: 117 tops
S3: 110 psychological
S4: 108.7 bottom
S5: 106.0 bottom
Euro is in consolidation around 123 level/20-day

moving average.
MACD is in declining trend slightly above zero level.
ROC50 is in declining trend above zero level. ROC20

is in sideways trend close to zero level.
RSI is in sideways trend close to neutral level.
Consolidation around 123 level/20-day moving

average should continue for some time.
Daily QEURJPY=
17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Price
JPY
SMA; QEURJPY=
25.3.2013; 123,06
EMA; QEURJPY=
25.3.2013; 120,65
Cndl; QEURJPY=
25.3.2013; 122,22; 123,85; 122,17; 122,63
120,74
EMA; QEURJPY=
25.3.2013; 115,81
123
120
117
115,48
114
111
108,72
108
105
104
102
99
96,99
.12
20
27
03
10
VIII 12
17
24
01
08
IX 12
15
22
29
05
X 12
12
19
26
03
XI 12
10
17
24
31
07
14
XII 12
21
28
04
11
I 13
18
25
04
11
II 13
18
25
01
III 13
Daily QEURJPY=
28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential

25.3.2013; -0,24
MACD; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential
25.3.2013; 0,15; 0,39
Value
JPY
2
1
0
.12
ROC; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 60

25.3.2013; 7,165
ROC; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 20
25.3.2013; 2,294
EMA; ROC(QEURJPY=); 20
25.3.2013; 11,453
Value
JPY
20
10
0
.123
RSI; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing

25.3.2013; 47,861
MARSI; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing; 14
25.3.2013; 53,995
Value
JPY
80
60
40
20
.123
03
10
17
24
IX 12
01
08
15
X 12
22
29
05
12
19
XI 12
26
03
10
17
XII 12
24
31
07
14
21
I 13
28
04
11
18
II 13
25
04
11
18
25
01
III 13
Page 8
3/25/2013
EUR/CHF
Franc is in consolidation on 200-day moving average.
MACD is in declining trend below zero level.
ROC20 is in rising trend and testing zero level. ROC50

is in sideways trend above zero level.
RSI is in sideways trend above oversold level.
We expect rebound from 200-day moving average.

R3: 1.30 tops
R2: 1.24 Fibonacci level, bottom
R1: 1.2124 bottom, consolidation
S1: 1.20 psychological
S2: 1.1826 bottom
Daily QEURCHF=
17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Price
CHF
SMA; QEURCHF=
25.3.2013; 1,2269
EMA; QEURCHF=
25.3.2013; 1,2255
Cndl; QEURCHF=
25.3.2013; 1,2214; 1,2254; 1,2197; 1,2212
EMA; QEURCHF=
25.3.2013; 1,2205
1,25
1,245
1,24
1,235
1,23
1,225
1,22
1,215
1,212
1,21
1,205
.1234
20
27
03
10
VIII 12
17
24
01
08
IX 12
15
22
29
05
X 12
12
19
26
03
XI 12
10
17
24
31
07
14
XII 12
21
28
04
11
I 13
18
25
04
11
II 13
18
25
01
III 13
Daily QEURCHF=
28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential

25.3.2013; -0,0011
MACD; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential
25.3.2013; -0,0020; -0,0009
Value
CHF
0,006
0,003
0
.1234
ROC; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 60

25.3.2013; 1,118
ROC; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 20
25.3.2013; 0,279
EMA; ROC(QEURCHF=); 20
25.3.2013; 1,550
Value
CHF
2
0
.123
RSI; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing

25.3.2013; 40,873
MARSI; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing; 14
25.3.2013; 48,903
Value
CHF
80
60
40
20
.123
03
10
17
24
IX 12
01
08
15
X 12
22
29
05
12
19
XI 12
26
03
10
17
XII 12
24
31
07
14
21
I 13
28
04
11
18
II 13
25
04
11
18
25
01
III 13
Page 9
3/25/2013
Brent
Brent broke through 108 level.
MACD is in slowing declining trend below zero level.
ROC50 is in declining trend below zero level. ROC20

is turning upwards and is below zero level.
RSI is testing oversold level.
Consolidation around 108 level or even correction to

at least 110 level are likely because of oversold conditions.
Short-term trend: decline

R6: 123.0 tops
R5 120.0 top and bottom of consolidation range
R4: 116.0 bottom and top of consolidation range
R3: 112.0 top of consolidation range
R2: 110.0 consolidation
R1: 108.0 bottom of consolidation range
S1: 103.0 bottom
S2: 99.0 top of consolidation range.
Daily QLCOc1; QBRT-ROT-REF
5.9.2012 - 4.4.2013 (LON)

Price
USD
Bbl
Cndl; QLCOc1
25.3.2013; 107,40; 108,48; 106,80; 108,29
3MA; QLCOc1
25.3.2013; 109,89; 112,76; 109,77
118
117
116
116
115
114
113
112
111
110
109
108
108
107
106
105
.12
10
17
24
01
08
z 2012
15
22
29
jen 2012
05
12
19
26
03
listopad 2012
10
17
24
31
07
prosinec 2012
14
21
28
04
leden 2013
11
18
25
04
nor 2013
11
18
25
01
bezen 2013
Daily QBRT-
23.8.2012 - 8.4.2013 (GMT)
MACDF; QBRT-; Last Quote(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential

25.3.2013; -0,09
MACD; QBRT-; Last Quote(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential
25.3.2013; -1,80; -1,71
Value
USD
Bbl
2
1
0
-1
.12
ROC; QBRT-; Last Quote(Last); 60

25.3.2013; -1,903
ROC; QBRT-; Last Quote(Last); 20
25.3.2013; -6,024
EMA; ROC(QBRT-); 20
25.3.2013; -0,342
Value
USD
Bbl
20
10
0
.123
RSI; QBRT-; Last Quote(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing

25.3.2013; 36,831
MARSI; QBRT-; Last Quote(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing; 14
25.3.2013; 31,170
Value
USD
Bbl
60
40
20
.123
27
03
VIII 12
10
17
24
IX 12
01
08
15
X 12
22
29
05
12
19
XI 12
26
03
10
17
XII 12
24
31
07
14
21
I 13
28
04
11
18
II 13
25
04
11
18
25
02
08
III 13
Page 10
3/25/2013
Closed trading ideas

Instrument
EURRON
EURHUF
EURUSD
Copper
EURUSD
Gold
EURCZK
EURPLN
EURUSD
EURJPY
Oil Brent
Copper
Lead
Gold
Platinum
Brent
EURHUF
Oil Brent
Brent
EURJPY
EURPLN
EURHUF
EURUSD
Copper
Gold
EURCHF
Platinum
EURUSD
EURRON
EURJPY
Platinum
Lead
Brent
Copper
EURRON
EURROL
EURUSD
EURCHF
EURJPY
Platinum
Lead
EURRON
EURCHF
Copper
EURPLN
EURUSD
EURCZK
Gold
EURJPY
Gold
EURPLN
EURJPY
EURUSD
EURJPY
Lead
Oil Brent
EURCZK
Direction
long
short
long
long
long
long
long
short
long
long
long
long
short
short
long
long
long
long
long
long
short
short
long
short
long
short
short
short
long
long
short
long
long
long
short
short
short
long
long
short
short
short
long
long
short
long
long
long
long
long
short
short
long
long
long
long
long
Open
3.529
233.86
1.4788
357.23
1.4605
774.2
24.128
3.343
1.418
156.23
101.7
314.33
1858
896.4
1087.5
85.2
251.2
76
69.6
136.7
3.55
268.38
1.3428
223.85
730
1.4412
751
1.2462
3.744
116.41
859
1225
47.64
175
3.80
4.3145
1.3355
1.4883
118.57
947.5
1159
4.2465
1.5032
149.6
4.818
1.2588
28.18
932.7
117.15
914.65
4.4458
128
1.3005
131.58
1286
51.45
27.45
Opened
18.8.2008
25.8.2008
25.8.2008
25.8.2008
1.9.2008
15.9.2008
15.9.2008
15.9.2008
15.9.2008
22.9.2008
22.9.2008
29.9.2008
29.9.2008
29.9.2008
29.9.2008
6.10.2008
6.10.2008
13.10.2008
20.10.2008
13.10.2008
13.10.2008
20.10.2008
20.10.2008
20.10.2008
27.10.2008
27.10.2008
27.10.2008
27.10.2008
10.11.2008
27.10.2008
10.11.2008
24.11.2008
24.11.2008
10.11.2008
24.11.2008
12.1.2009
12.1.2009
12.1.2009
19.1.2009
19.1.2009
26.1.2009
26.1.2009
26.1.2009
19.1.2009
16.2.2009
2.3.2009
2.3.2009
2.3.2009
16.2.2009
9.3.2009
16.3.2009
16.3.2009
16.3.2009
23.3.2009
16.3.2009
23.3.2009
30.3.2009
Target
3.660
229.00
1.5600
398.00
1.5600
860
24.90
3.22
1.56
168.0
118
330
1770
870
1230
80
258
90
90.0
156.0
3.28
245.0
1.4300
145.0
830
1.3620
600
1.1830
3.970
140.0
595
1475
65
300
3.60
4.070
1.275
1.570
133.0
880
1055
4.0700
1.57
240.0
4.42
1.2980
29.80
985.0
128.0
985
3.95
117
1.43
150
1500
70
28.70
Stop-loss
3.40
236.00
1.4580
355.00
1.4480
745
23.90
3.365
1.44
153.8
98
309
1895
910
1060
87
248
74.5
68.0
133.0
3.63
274.0
1.3220
190.0
740.0
1.4650
775
1.2650
3.650
120.0
905
1175
44.8
145
3.88
4.420
1.365
1.46
116.0
975
1220
4.32
1.483
155.0
4.87
1.2450
28.00
920.0
121.0
920
4.55
129.5
1.35
128
1180
47
26.90
P/L (%) Comment

+0.45% closed on time
-1.13% closed stop-loss
-1.41% closed stop-loss
-0.62% closed stop loss
+11.11%closed on target
+1.55% closed lock in
+4.97% closed on target
+6.5% closed on target
-1.62 closed stop loss
-2.27% closed on time
+3.61% %closed lock in
Page 11

EURUSD
EURPLN
EURCZK
Copper
EURPLN
EURUSD
Gold
EUR/PLN
Brent
EURUSD
EURCZK
Platinum
EURJPY
Gold
Platinum
EURJPY
EURPLN
Copper
EURJPY
Gold
Platinum
Brent
Lead
EURCZK
EURHUF
EURJPY
EURHUF
EURJPY
Copper
Brent
EURJPY
EURUSD
EURCZK
Copper
Lead
EURJPY
EURCHF
Platinum
Brent
Copper
Gold
EURUSD
EURJPY
Brent
Lead
Platinum
Gold
Copper
EURPLN
Lead
EURRON
Platinum
Copper
EURRON
Platinum
EURON
Copper
Gold
Lead
EURHUF
Lead
short
short
long
long
short
long
long
short
short
short
short
short
short
short
short
short
short
short
short
short
long
short
short
short
short
long
short
long
short
long
long
long
short
long
short
long
long
long
long
short
short
long
short
long
long
long
short
short
long
long
long
long
short
short
long
short
long
long
short
long
long
1.3194 30.3.2009
4.4351 6.4.2009
26.591 6.4.2009
147.15 23.2.2009
4.382 11.5.2009
1.351 18.5.2009
929.4 18.5.2009
4.409 25.5.2009
70.51 15.6.2009
1.386 22.6.2009
26.03 22.6.2009
1183.5 29.6.2009
132.67 22.6.2009
953.25 10.8.2009
1242 10.8.2009
132.87 17.8.2009
4.1105 24.8.2009
288.12 17.8.2009
133.04 31.8.2009
999.0 14.9.2009
1349.5 19.10.2009
78.59 26.10.2009
2304.852.11.2009
26.11 30.11.2009
273.05 30.11.2009
130.4 30.11.2009
273.69 14.12.2009
129.6 14.12.2009
316
14.12.2009
73.21 21.12.2009
129.94 21.12.2009
1.436 21.12.2009
26.26 4.1.2010
339.5 18.1.2010
2250.3 25.1.2010
127.66 25.1.2010
1.4722 1.2.2010
1530 1.2.2010
72.17 1.2.2010
308.6 1.2.2010
1122.7522.2.2010
1.362 22.2.2010
120.59 1.3.2010
72.17 15.2.2010
2181 1.3.2010
1550 1.3.2010
1125.9 8.3.2010
338.6 22.3.2010
3.893 22.3.2010
2186 29.3.2010
4.1225 12.4.2010
1725.5 12.4.2010
353.3 26.4.2010
4.1161 26.4.2010
1744.5 26.4.2010
4.126 3.5.2010
329.6 3.5.2010
1183 3.5.2010
2230 3.5.2010
273.7 10.5.2010
2110 10.5.2010
3/25/2013
1.28
4.15
27.90
240.0
4.12
1.280
980
4.16
49.5
1.3617
24.80
1120
115.5
910
1110
128
3.98
255
126.5
955.0
1440
72.1
2250
25.45
264
135
266
134.5
285
78
138
1.53
25.55
400
2080
138
1.4950
1640
82
280
1060
1.408
117
82.0
2350
1640
1064
290
4.05
2600
4.23
2000
342
3.95
2200
3.95
362
1215
2020
269
2200
1.3325
4.55
26.30
200.0
4.42
1.365
918
4.46
70.0
1.395
26.45
1210
136.5
973
1330
135.3
4.155
295
134.5
1010.000
1335
80.6
2350
26.55
276.5
128.5
276.5
128.0
330
71
127.5
1.415
26.55
325
2285
125
1.4620
1475
70.5
316
1145
1.342
122.3
79.5
2240
1520
1145
345
3.87
2080
4.10
1670
357
4.145
1640
4.165
325
1165
2275
275.5
2070

+5.44% closed profit target
-1.80% stop loss
-4.27% stop loss
-2.08% stop loss
-0.69% stop loss
+1.31% lock in
+3.23% lock in
-1.40% stop loss
+10.16%lock in
+2.71% lock in
-1.86% stop loss
-0.59% stop loss
-3.22% stop loss
-0.7% stop loss
-5.99% stop loss
-0.94% stop loss
-1.40% stop loss
-1.52% stop loss
-0.65% stop loss
-1.90% stop loss
Page 12

Copper
Gold
EURJPY
Brent
Copper
Lead
Copper
Brent
Platinum
Lead
EURJPY
EURPLN
Copper
Gold
EURPLN
EURJPY
EURCHF
Brent
Lead
Platinum
Gold
EURCHF
Gold
Brent
Platinum
Lead
Platinum
Lead
Brent
Gold
Gold
Lead
Brent
Copper
EURUSD
Platinum
EURJPY
EURTRY
Copper
Gold
Copper
Platinum
Gold
EURHUF
Brent
Lead
Platinum
Lead
Gold
Lead
Brent
EURCHF
EURCHF
Gold
EURUSD
Lead
EURCHF
Gold
Lead
Copper
Gold
long
short
long
long
long
short
long
long
long
short
long
short
short
short
short
long
long
short
long
long
long
long
short
short
long
long
long
short
long
short
short
short
short
long
short
long
long
short
short
long
long
short
long
long
short
short
short
long
short
long
short
long
long
short
short
short
long
short
short
short
long
321.45 10.5.2010
1193.4 10.5.2010
114.6 17.5.2010
74.17 17.5.2010
305.25 17.5.2010
1903 17.5.2010
305.25 17.5.2010
69.63 25.5.2010
1526 25.5.2010
1830 25.5.2010
111.95 25.5.2010
4.10
25.5.2010
307.15 31.5.2010
1216.2 31.5.2010
4.0322 21.6.2010
112.98 21.6.2010
1.3729 21.6.2010
77.24 28.6.2010
1840 28.6.2010
1561.5 31.5.2010
1202.6 12.7.2010
1.3371 12.7.2010
1188.5 26.7.2010
82.02 2.8.2010
1545 26.7.2010
2110.7 2.8.2010
1529.5 16.8.2010
2050 23.8.2010
77.0
6.9.2010
1249 6.9.2010
1244 13.9.2010
2216 13.9.2010
78.9
20.9.2010
329.3 2.8.2010
1.3468 27.9.2010
1672 4.10.2010
113.44 27.9.2010
1.9663 11.10.2010
383.55 18.10.2010
1390.2 8.11.2010
395
8.11.2010
1747. 8.11.2010
1365.5 15.11.2010
276.1 15.11.2010
87.5
15.11.2010
2430 15.11.2010
1633.5 29.11.2010
2277 29.11.2010
1411 6.12.2010
2336 6.12.2010
92.1
13.12.2010
1.2635 27.12.2010
1.2486 3.1.2011
1418.953.1.2011
1.291 10.1.2011
2616 10.1.2011
1.2543 10.1.2011
1350 20.1.2011
2665 17.1.2011
434.75 24.1.2011
1365 8.2.2011
3/25/2013
335
1080
120
79
325
1600
325
79
1640
1520
119
3.86
295
1140
3.87
126
1.395
74.00
2000
1740
1240
1.3758
1140
76
1700
2380
1600
1850
82.0
1215
1215
2050
74.2
400
1.303
1740
119.5
1.9000
340.00
1360.0
383
1810
1410
290.3
79
2000
1500
2600
1370
2600
79
1.370
1.380
1365
1.247
2200
1.380
1220
2200
370
1420
315
1215
112
73
298
1950
298
67
1450
1860
108
4.22
314
1230
4.08
111
1.367
78.00
1815
1500
1195
1.3255
1205
83.5
1515
2045
1495
2105
76.0
1255
1250
2250
80.2
319
1.354
1648
112.5
1.9820
385.80
1402.0
398
1735
1345
272.5
87.5
2520
1675
2230
1425
2270
93.5
1.240
1.235
1432
1.305
2670
1.280
1335
2400
446
1340
-2.01% stop loss

-1.78% stop loss
-2.27% stop loss
-1.58% stop loss
-2.38% stop loss
+7.51% lock in
-2.61% stop loss
-3.78% stop loss
+7.65% lock in
-1.12% stop loss
-1.17% stop loss
-1.75% stop loss
-0.43% stop loss
-1.36% stop loss
-3.94% stop loss
-0.63% stop loss
-1.37% stop loss
-1.80% stop loss
-1.94% stop loss
+2.34% lock in
-1.30% stop loss
-0.48% stop loss
-0.48% stop loss
-1.51% stop loss
-1.62% stop loss
-0.53% stop loss
-0.83% stop loss
-0.79% stop loss
-0.58% stop loss
-0.84% stop loss
-0.75% stop loss
-0.72% stop loss
-1.50% stop loss
-1.30% stop loss
+2.94% lock in
+8.00% lock in
-2.24% stop loss
-2.06% stop loss
-0.98% stop loss
+2.74% lock in
-1.50% stop loss
-1.86% stop loss
+0.91% lock in
-1.07% stop loss
-2.02% stop loss
+2.12% lock in
+1.12% lock in
+11.0% lock in
-2.52% stop loss
Page 13

Platinum
EURTRY
Brent
Copper
Lead
Gold
Copper
Brent
Gold
Copper
Copper
Platinum
EURRON
EURTRY
Brent
Gold
Platinum
EURPLN
Lead
Copper
Gold
Brent
Copper
Lead
Brent
Copper
Brent
EURCHF
Gold
Lead
Lead
Copper
Copper
Platinum
Silver
Lead
Brent
Copper
Platinum
Gold
Brent
Copper
EURUSD
Platinum
Copper
Brent
Gold
Silver
Gold
Copper
Brent
Silver
Brent
Silver
Brent
Gold
Lead
Gold
Brent
Gold
Gold
long
short
long
short
short
short
short
short
short
long
short
long
short
short
short
short
long
short
short
long
short
long
short
short
short
long
short
long
long
short
short
short
short
long
long
short
short
long
long
long
short
short
short
long
long
long
long
long
short
long
long
short
long
short
short
long
short
long
short
long
long
1820
2.139
104.11
447.3
2664
1408.8
447.3
117.16
1426.2
417.8
431.75
1750
4.12
2.17
127.38
1469
1798
3.9676
2491
418.2
1500
113.09
398
2400
115.58
416.5
115.58
416.5
1498
2668
2663.3
437.25
439
1760.5
40.54
2682
114.54
332.4
1511.5
1659
109.5
361.55
1.378
1655
336.8
112.5
1745.6
28.95
1642
370
110.4
33.42
110.8
33.15
120.15
1715.2
2265
1745
126.8
1655.5
1630
14.2.2011
14.2.2011
21.2.2011
21.2.2011
21.2.2011
28.2.2011
7.3.2011
7.3.2011
14.3.2011
14.3.2011
21.3.2011
21.3.2011
28.3.2011
28.3.2011
11.4.2011
11.4.2011
11.4.2011
11.4.2011
2.5.2011
2.5.2011
9.5.2011
9.5.2011
16.5.2011
23.5.2011
30.5.2011
30.5.2011
30.5.2011
30.5.2011
27.6.2011
4.7.2011
11.7.2011
11.7.2011
25.7.2011
18.7.2011
25.7.2011
25.7.2011
5.9.2011
10.10.2011
10.10.2011
10.10.2011
31.10.2011
31.10.2011
7.11.2011
8.11.2011
28.11.2011
5.12.2011
5.12.2011
9.1.2012
16.1.2012
17.1.2012
23.1.2012
30.1.2012
30.1.2012
6.2.2012
13.2.2012
6.2.2012
30.1.2012
21.2.2012
27.2.2012
19.3.2012
22.3.2012
3/25/2013
1860
1.980
110
370
2410
1370
412
103
1320
450.0
370.0
1850
4.19
1.96
116.5
1420
1855
3.87
2350
450
1400
124
370
2250
109
450
109
450
1540
2350
2350
410
420
1840
46
2350
102
370
1750
1800
102
322
1.320
1750
370
116.5
1800
31.00
1560
400
116
31.4
116
30.7
108
1800
2000
1800
116
1700
1700
1795
2.170
102
435
2550
1425
456
113
1405
408
440.0
1715
4.10
2.21
129.0
1485
1770
4.01
2530
410
1515
112
410
2505
117.5
413.5
117.5
413.5
1485
2710
2725
445
445
1740
39.5
2730
117
325
1480
1630
112.5
372
1.387
1615
327
111
1728
28.40
1645
355
108
34.2
108
33.8
123
1680
2160
1710
129
1640
1646

-1.43% stop loss
+2.83% lock in
+4.47% lock in
-1.14% stop loss
+3.68% lock in
+1.51% lock in
-2.35% stop loss
-1.88% stop loss
-0.49% stop loss
-1.81% stop loss
-1.08% stop loss
-1.56% stop loss
-1.96% stop loss
-0.99% stop loss
-2.27% stop loss
-2.93% stop loss
-4.19% stop loss
-1.63% stop loss
-0.72% stop loss
-2.91% stop loss
-1.30% stop loss
-0.87% stop loss
-1.55% stop loss
-2.32% stop loss
-1.35% stop loss
-2.57% stop loss
+14.13%closed profit target
-2.10% stop loss
-2.23% stop loss
-2.08% stop loss
-2.67% stop loss
-1.33% stop loss
-1.01% stop loss
-0.18% stop loss
-2.17% stop loss
-2.28% stop loss
-1.92% stop loss
-2.31% stop loss
+4.86% Lock in
-2.01% stop loss
-1.71% stop loss
-0.94% stop loss
-0.97% stop loss
Page 14

Brent
Copper
Brent
Silver
EURJPY
Silver
Platinum
Copper
Gold
Copper
Brent
Platinum
Brent
Lead
Silver
Brent
Platinum
Silver
Brent
Platinum
Gold
Lead
Gold
Platinum
Lead
Gold
Platinum
EURTRY
Brent
short
short
long
long
long
long
long
long
long
short
long
long
short
short
long
short
long
short
long
long
long
short
long
long
short
long
short
short
short
126.5
362.3
109.1
28.4
99.5
29.0
1438.8
339.2
1572.4
329.2
89.48
1436.7
99.2
1863
27.15
103.6
1414.7
28.02
109.5
1400.8
1782.5
2094
1720
1575
2287
1666.8
1677
2.3426
117.7
26.3.2012
16.4.2012
28.5.2012
28.5.2012
28.5.2012
4.6.2012
11.6.2012
18.6.2012
28.6.2012
28.6.2012
28.6.2012
2.7.2012
9.7.2012
9.7.2012
9.7.2012
16.7.2012
16.7.2012
13.8.2012
3.8.2012
30.7.2012
1.10.2010
22.10.2010
31.10.2010
13.11.2010
17.12.2012
14.1.2013
28.1.2013
4.3.2013
28.2.2013
3/25/2013
118.0
325.0
116.0
32.0
105.0
34.0
1540.0
368.0
1625.0
305.0
100.0
1575
90
1760
29
90
1475
27
128
1575
2000
1920
2000
1720
2000
1780
1520
2.27
108.0
123
372
106.5
27.6
98.0
28.3
1395.0
332.0
1548.0
338.0
90.0
1397
102.2
1890
26.6
106.3
1400
28.36
115.5
1500
1740
2060
1695
1550
2330
1640
1710
2.36
114

-2.61% stop loss
-2.38% stop loss
-2.82% stop loss
-1.51% stop loss
-2.41% stop loss
+3.56% Lock in
-2.12% stop loss
-1.55% stop loss
-2.60% stop loss
+11.76%closed profit target
+2.32% Lock in
-2.94% stop loss
-2.03% stop loss
-2.54% stop loss
-1.04% stop loss
-1.2% stop loss
+5.48% Lock in
+7.08% Lock in
-2.36% stop loss
+1.65% Lock in
-1.45% stop loss
-1.59% stop loss
-1.85% stop loss
-1.93% stop loss
Page 15

Treasury - Erste Bank Vienna
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Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research

Erste Group Technician

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research

Main trend: consolidation

Short-term trend: growth

Koruna is in consolidation in 25.45-25.80 range and

17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Erste Group Technician

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research

Zloty rebounded from 4.19 level.

MACD rose above zero level.

Both ROCs are in slow rising trend. ROC20 is testing

RSI is in correction on rising trend above neutral level.

Consolidation above moving averages seems most

Main trend: consolidation

Short-term trend: consolidation

17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Erste Group Technician

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research

Forint is in slow rising trend above 300 level.

MACD is in slowing rising trend and is strongly

Both ROCs are in sideways trend above zero level.

Euro is clearly overbought, so consolidation or

Main trend: growth

Short-term trend: consolidation

17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Erste Group Technician

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research

Main trend: consolidation

Short-term trend: consolidation

Lei weakened to 200-day moving average.

17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Erste Group Technician

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research

Lira is in consolidation in range defined by 200- and

MACD is in slow rising trend below zero level.

Both ROCs are in sideways trend slightly below zero

RSI is in sideways trend close to neutral level.

Continuation of consolidation is likely. Breakthrough

Main trend: consolidation

Short-term trend: consolidation

17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

Erste Group Technician

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research

Dollar is in short-term consolidation below 1.30 level

MACD is in sideways trend below zero level. It is

Both ROCs are in sideways trend below zero level.

RSI is in slow rising trend above oversold level.

Main trend: growth

Short-term trend: decline

17.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

28.8.2012 - 4.4.2013 (GMT)

MACDF; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential

ROC; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 60

RSI; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing

Erste Group Technician

Technician Macro/Fixed Income Research

Main trend: growth

Short-term trend: consolidation