Objectives

A Review & Classification

of
Petroleum Resource Base in Thailand

Review Current Petroleum Resource

Classification System Currently used in DMR
Reclassify Petroleum Resources & Reserves
into the Same Classification System
Estimate Petroleum Resource Base

Anon Punnahitanon

Outlook on the Petroleum Industry of the

Country

Petroleum Engineer
Mineral Fuel Division
Department of Mineral Resources

Outline
Resource Classification System
Reserve Definition
Resource Evaluation

Resource Classification System

Reserve Development
Resource Base @ end 2001
Resource Lifecycle & Reserve Growth
Projection

Resources (Recoverable Resources)

Reserves

Petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered

from known accumulations from a given date forward

Undiscovered Resources

Discovered Resources
Total discovered deliverable quantities
based on in place volume and recovery
factor

Reserves

Total estimated quantities to be

recovered from accumulations that
remainto be discovered

Hypothetical

Speculative

Mapped prospects

Not yet been mapped

Potential Resources

Aticipated to be
commercially recovered
from known
accumulations from a
given date forward

Not commercially
producible at present

Petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered

from known accumulations from a given date forward

Proved Reserves

Unproved Reserves

Estimated with reasonable certainty

to be commercially recovered

Less certain to be recovered than

proved reserves

Probable reserves

Possible reserves

More likely than not

to be recovered

Less likely than likely

to be recovered

Developed
Reserves

Undeveloped
Reserves

Expected to be
recovered form
existing wells

Expected to be recovered
with additional capital
investment

Reserves Contributing Factors

Reserve Definitions

Reserves
Economic Conditions

Government Regulations

Historical prices/costs

Operating Methods

Probabilistic Estimation
Possible ?

Probability

Cum. Probability

Reserves

90 th percentile

Deterministic vs.
Probabilistic

Probable ?

Mean

Mean, P50
10

th percentile

90

th percentile

10 th percentile

Value

Vl
Value

Proved ?

Probabilistic Estimation (Contd)

Applying Statistics in Reserves Estimation

Probability
Which one is the most
confident ?
Mode

Its implication is what the safe side of the estimate and what
the outrageous one are

Geometric Mean
Median

10 th percentile

Probabilistic estimate is very useful to form an uncertainty

range of and estimation.

90 th percentile

Value

If statistical method is to be used, each reserve category should

be assessed on different basis to reflect its inherent different
level of confidence in data from which it is derived.
Criteria in assessing level of confidence is qualitatively spelled
out in SPE/WPC definitions.

Caution
Resource / Reserve
Assessment

Because of potential differences in uncertainty,

caution should be exercised

when aggregating different reserve classification

Petroleum
Provinces
Northern Intermontane
Central Plain
Northeastern
Gulf of Thailand
The Andaman Sea

Estimated Undiscovered Resources

Basins

Onshore
Tertiary
Pre-Tertiary
Gulf of
Thailand
Andaman
Sea
Total

Gas (TCF)

Oil (MMBBL)

Condensate
(MMBBL)
Low
High
-

Low
0.2

High
0.5

Low
120.0

High
260.0

3.5

11.0

1.0

5.0

11.0

33.0

110

350

225.0

600.0

2.5

7.5

30.0

100.0

30.0

100.0

17.2

52.0

260.0

710.0

256.0

705.0

Estimated Discovered Resources

Potential Recoveries
Gulf of Thailand
Onshore

Oil
((MMBBL))
92.42
NA

Condensate
((MMBBL))
7.29
NA

Total Resource Base

Natural Gas
((BCF))
633.77
NA

Ultimate Recovery
Oil
(MMBBLS)

Possible Reserves
Probable Reserves
Proved Reserves
Cumulative
Production

Condensate
(MMBBLS)

Natural Gas
(BCF)

253.4
156.9
325.0

321.0
245.1
262.4

,617.8
7
,654.4
9
13,301.6

188.6

196.5

,739.5
6

924 1,025

350

16,000

300

14,000

8,000
150
6,000
100

BCF

10,000
200

50

2,000

19
7
19 9
8
19 0
8
19 1
8
19 2
8
19 3
8
19 4
8
19 5
8
19 6
8
19 7
8
19 8
8
19 9
9
19 0
9
19 1
9
19 2
9
19 3
9
19 4
9
19 5
9
19 6
9
19 7
9
19 8
9
20 9
0
20 0
01

Condensate

(BCF)

260
92.4
253.4
156.9
325.0
188.6
1 276 3
1,276.3

256
7.3
321.0
245.1
262.4
196.5
1 288 3
1,288.3

17,200.0
17
200 0
633.8
7,617.8
9,654.4
13,301.6
6,739.5
55 147 1
55,147.1

Field Growth or Reserve Growth

Annual Field Growth (AFG)

AFGn =

4,000

Oil

Natural Gas

(MMBBL)

An Increase in Ultimate Recovery

(Proved Reserves + Cumulative Production)

12,000

250

Condensate

37.3

Thailand Petroleum Proved Reserves 1979-2001

MMBBLs

Undiscovered Resources
Potential Recovery
Possible Reserves
Probable Reserves
Proved Reserves
Cumulative Production
Total

Oil
(MMBBL)

UR n
UR n-1

Cumulative Field Growth (CFG)

CFGn =

UR *UR * ...* UR
1

Gas

Petroleum Resource Lifecycle

Natural Gas Reserve Cumulative Growth

120

Cu
umulative Growth F
Factor

Ulttimate Recovery Potentiial%

120
100
80
60
40
20

100
80
60
y = 71.106Ln(x) - 167.75
40
20

0
0

Proved + Production

Unproved Potential

10

20

30

50

Year

Undiscovered Resources

Crude Oil Reserve Cumulative Growth

Natural Gas Resource Outlook

45

Cum
mulative Growth F
Factor

40

55.1 TCF

40

32%

35
30

Undiscovered Resources
+ Potential Recovery

18.2
TCF

36.9 TCF

25

y = 23.268Ln(x) - 47.113

20

68%

15

Unproved
p
Reserves

10
5
0

10

20

30

Year

40

50

2002

2022

Crude Oil Resource Outlook

1,276 MMBBLS
28%

352
MMBBLS

Thailand Petroleum Proved Reserves 1979-2001

60

50

913 MMBBLS
40

Oil
Condensate
Gas

30

72%

20

17 Years
10

2002

2023

Summary
DMRs Current Classification System is
Reviewed
Estimated Petroleum Resource Base for Oil,
Condensate and Natural Gas are 1,276
MMBBLS, 1,288 MMBBLS, and 55 TCF,
Respectively
Total Reserves are 924 MMBBLS Oil, 1025
MMBBLS Condensate, and 37.3 TCF Natural
Gas

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Summary (Contd)
Projection of Reserve Growth for Oil and
Gas shows that total Reserves will sustain
the Growth for the Next 20 Years
Petroleum Industry has Past Mature Stage
with Total Ultimate Recovery for Oil and
Natural Gas 72% and 68 % of Total
Resource Base