Rapid Destabilization in the Middle East

Rapid Destabilization in the Middle East

Abdullah M. Alsawad
American University of Sharjah
Department of Political Sciences and International Studies

Author Note:
This Paper is written in accordance to POL201 Course requirements under the
supervision of Dr. Johannes A.A.M. van Gorp

RAPID DESTABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Rapid Destabilization in the Middle East

On the 17th December 2010 Tarek al-Tayeb Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire on the
busy streets of Hay al-Noor -a rural town in Tunis- in protest of government corruption. As
accustomed, Tarek a local street merchant bought goods on credit every morning and
proceeded to sell and earn in order to support his family. His story is not extraordinary. At the
time, Tunisia suffered from widespread poverty and 30% unemployment; working as a street
merchant is fairly common. However, what sets Tarek apart was the fact that his actions on that
fateful day created a wake in the Arab world. Tarek did not have a permit, nor could he afford it
when the police proceeded to destroy his barrel filled with $200 worth of goods. When he
confronted the governor about the incident, his pleas where ignored. Tarek threatened to take his
own life and proceeded to do so. "How do you expect me to make a living?", he said before
dousing himself in gasoline and then lighting match (Mihailovich, 2011).
Mass protest ensued and Ben Ali -the president of Tunis- was overthrown. That event
echoed in Egypt, Libya and Syria; as they became part of the revolutionary wave that swept
across the Arab world. This marked the beginning of the Arab Spring.
The term Arab Spring was first used by an American political journal (Foreign Policy),
it is a reference to the revolutions of 1948, commonly referred to as the spring time of nations
(Massad, 2012). The term was quickly picked up by bloggers and many news outlets purely due
to its sensational value. The Arab spring is supposed to liberate the Middle East. However, it is
simply an equivocation; a false label that attempts to vindicate failed US foreign policy in the
region. The reality is that the revolution is has not yet subsided. The present political conditions
in destabilized Arab countries cannot be predicted by CNNs interactive electoral map. Neither
swayed by masking the reality of events with a liberal democratic title.

RAPID DESTABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Failed Democracy in Iraq

9/11 has brought increasing rhetoric about the need for a democratic middle east.
Authoritarian regimes that harbor radical and extreme ideals where considered to be a major
threat to both the US and the Middle-East. However this rhetoric was not the primary
justification for the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The Bush administration argued that Iraq had
obtained weapons of mass destruction and proceeded to topple the Iraqi regime without a formal
mandate from the UN. When the original justification proved to be incorrect. The US losing
international support quickly transferred authority and sovereignty to the Iraqis. Hence many
politicians who represent sectarian interest seized the opportunity to fulfil their personal goals
(Selim, 2013).
The US lead pro-democratic movement in the Middle-East resulted in the foundation of
the Middle-East partnership initiative (MEPI), along with several other leftist organizations.
However, support from the US was minimal. These type of establishments worked within the
comfort of authoritarian regimes and were merely focused on changing the image of the MiddleEast rather than laying the groundwork for actual progress. In 2005 US interest shifted, Iranian
nuclear talks were in progress and the US needed support from its authoritarian allies in order to
facilitate negations. Furthermore, Egypt served an important role in maintaining the power
balance in the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Hence, the Iraq war; which could have played a
significant role in breaking apart authoritarian regimes in the Middle-East, failed to achieve any
of its goals (Ghanim, 2011).
Instead, Iraq is now facing civil war and it is becoming the harbor for extremist groups
such as ISIS, causing major instability in the region.

RAPID DESTABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The Egyptian revolution

Prior to the revolution in Egypt, the Obama administration showed little to no concern
regarding the rising conflict and protest in Egypt. It supported Mubaraks regime and proclaimed
that minor reform was necessary in order to cease the rising internal conflict. This is due to the
fact that Mubaraks regime was facilitating the US interest in the region. It provided military
support and valuable intelligence that the US needed in order to satisfy its coalition with Israel
(Selim, 2013).
The US support for former President Hosni Mubaraks might as well been the catalyst
that pushed Egypt into revolution. Though their influence may not have been direct; US support
consolidated Mubaraks position in power. And as in Tunis, Rising Poverty and unemployment
under Hosni Mubarak administration brought instability and mass revolt.
Its a common theme. US foreign policy has always supported various oppressive
authoritarian rules across the Middle-East. As long as it served the US interest.
Morsi and the Muslim brotherhood took hold of Egypt, however only after the Supreme
Council of Armed forces of Egypt (SCAF) suspend military rule. Of course a generous donation
aid of $1.3 billion dollars eased the transition and helped in securing US future interests in the
region. This only lasted briefly as Morsi was overthrown and charged with espionage and
inciting deadly violence.
The direction of the Arab revolution is not yet determined and to portray it as movement
toward a liberal-democratic Middle-East is a clever way to credit the US involvement in the
region. One could say that the Iraq war was a success because it lead to the Arab Spring.
However in the recent Bahrain conflict, where Shiaa protests broke out seeking democratic rule,

RAPID DESTABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST

the US did not hesitate in conducting an arms deal with Bahrain rulers that involved anti-riot
gear, vehicles and tear gas. (Selim, 2013)
The Index of instability
A qualitative analysis of the situation in the Middle-East is not adequate due to the unpredictable
nature of the revolution. Furthermore, personal bias always plays a major role in skewing opinion
concerning the course of the Arab revolution. Hence, a recent study published in Arab Studies
Quarterly quantitatively describes the
level of instability in the Middle-East. The
study introduces five indices. Each index
represents an exponentially weighted
criterion of political instability. The final
result

is

plotted

on

log-log

scale

(Korotayev, Issaev, Malkov, & Shishkina,

Figure 1: Index of Potential Instability [log-log scale]

2014).
I.

Conflict potential index (I1):

The conflict potential index factors in socio-economic conditions, ethnic conflict and
corruption and intra-elite tensions

II.

Indicator of the presence of social combustible material (I2):

Factors in the presence of a higher youth democratic and disadvantages social groups

III.

Indicator of political order sustainability (the ability of the government to reduce social
tension) (I3)

IV.
V.

Indicator of the presence of immunity to internal conflicts (I4)

external influences (I5)

() = (In )
=1

RAPID DESTABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The plotted curve represents the sum of I1 to I5. The result depict a linearly decaying function.
The simple trend shows that countries near the margin of 10 on the index of potential instability
such as Morocco, Jordan and Bahrain face a high probability of political reform.

The New Middle-East

It is unclear whether the power shifts in the Middle-East will establish reformed states.
Many try to compare the Arab Spring to the French revolution. However whether the religious
and cultural norms of the region would allow for liberal and democratic process is not yet clear.
Furthermore, economic and political uncertainty is causing large numbers of people to
migrate from the Middle-East and seek refuge in Europe. The New Middle-East is still in its
infancy.
ISIS, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. These are all questions that are yet to be answered.

RAPID DESTABILIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Bibliography
The Arab Spring of 2005. (2005). Retrieved 23/6/2015, 2015, from
http://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/the-arab-spring-of-2005/
Ghanim, D. (2011). Iraq's dysfunctional democracy. Santa Barbara, Calif: Praeger.
Korotayev, A. V., Issaev, L. M., Malkov, S. Y., & Shishkina, A. R. (2014). The Arab Spring: A
Quantitative Analysis. Arab Studies Quarterly, 36(2), 149-169.
Massad, J. (2012). The 'Arab Spring' and other American seasons. from
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/08/201282972539153865.html
Mihailovich, D. (2011). How a slap sparked Tunisia's revolution. Retrieved 23/6/2015, 2015,
from http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-a-slap-sparked-tunisias-revolution-22-02-2011/
Selim, G. M. (2013). The United States and the Arab Spring: The Dynamics of Political
Engineering. Arab Studies Quarterly, 35(3), 255-272.