ViralMarketingfortheRealWorld

DuncanJ.Watts,JonahPeretti,andMichaelFrumin
Summary
Inspiteoftherecentpopularityofviralmarketing,wearguethatmostbigcompanies
shouldnotrelyonittospreadthewordabouttheirproductsandbrands.Instead,we
proposeanewmodelcalledBigSeedMarketingthatcombinesthepoweroftraditional
advertisingwiththeextrapunchprovidedbyviralpropagation.Betweentraditional
advertisingandviralmarketingisanimportantgapthatcanbefilledbybigcompanies
lookingforanadvantageinthemarketplaceandabetterreturnontheiradvertisingand
marketingdollar.
Introduction
Viralmarketinghasgeneratedalotofexcitementinrecentyears,inpartbecauseitseems
liketheultimatefreelunch:Picksomesmallnumberofpeopletoseedyouridea,
product,ormessage;getittogoviral;andthenwatchwhileitspreadsrelentlesslyto
reachmillions,allonashoestringmarketingbudget.
Addingtothisintuitiveappeal,viralideas,productsandmediaalsomakecompelling
stories.Flashmobs,startedbyBillWasikassomethingbetweenasocialexperiment
andanartproject,becamepopularinNewYorkCityinthesummerof2003,andthen
spreadaroundtheworldasimitatorsasfarafieldasAsia,Europe,SouthAmerica,and
AustraliacopiedWasiksidea.AmusingvideosliketheStarWarsKid,and
entertainingorcontroversialwebsiteslikeJibJabs2004electionspoofand
blackpeopleloveus.comalsostartedfromsmallinitialgroupsofpeopleandultimately
attractedmillionsofuniquevisitors,oftengeneratingadditionalexposurefroman
interestedmassmedia.Andviralemailforwards,likeoneinitiatedbyacustomerwho
orderedNikeshoescustomizedwiththewordSweatshop,oranotherdescribingan
intimateexchangebetweenaLondonlawyerandhisonetimegirlfriend,madenews
headlinesandgeneratedconsiderablynotorietyforitsauthors,afterreachingaglobal
audienceofmillionsviawordofmouthnetworks.
Nofreelunch
Viralmarketing,however,ismucheasiertotellstoriesaboutthantoimplement.For
everyhighprofileexampleofaviralproduct,therearemanymoreunsuccessfulattempts
thatoneneverhearsabout.Moreover,predictingwhichoftheseattemptswillsucceed
andwhichwillnotisextremelyhard,ifnotimpossibleevenforexperienced
practitioners.Afterthefact,itisusuallypossibletounderstandwhatwasentertaining,
titillating,orotherwiseintriguingaboutagivenviralentity;butitisrarelyobviousin
advance.Forexample,inarecentcontagiousmediacontestconductedbythemedia
artnonprofitEyebeam.org,aroomfulofsubjectmatterexpertsfailedtopredictwhichof

60submittedwebsiteswouldgeneratethemostpageviews.Evencreatorsofsuccessful
viralprojectsarerarelyabletorepeattheirsuccesswithsubsequentprojects.Indeed,
lookingacrossawiderangebothofsuccessfulandalsounsuccessfulattemptsoverthe
pastseveralyears,thereislittleinthewayofattributestowhichonemightascribe
consistentlyviralproperties.Asaresult,isextremelydifficult,andperhapsimpossibleto
consistentlycreatemediathatwillspreadvirallyfromasmallseedtomillionsofpeople.
Thusasappealingastheviralmodelofmarketingseemsintheory,itspractical
implementationisgreatlycomplicatedbyitslowsuccessrateaproblemthatis
exacerbatedbytheconstraintsimposedbythecommercial,political,orsocialagendas
inherenttomarketingcampaigns.Onemayneedtodesignandconductdozensoreven
hundredsofsuchcampaignsbeforeoneofthemsucceeds;andevenifacampaignis
successfulatspreadingitstillmightnotpropagatingthedesiredmessageofthe
advertiser.
Fortunately,itispossibleformediacompaniestobenefitfromtheinsightsofviral
marketing,whileavoidingitsmostseriouspitfalls.WeproposeanapproachcalledBig
Seedmarketingthatcombinesviralmarketingtoolswitholdfashionedmassmediaina
newandcreativeway.Theresultisstillnotafreelunch,norisitamagicbullet,butit
cangeneratereturnsoninvestmentthatareneverthelessimpressive,andfarmore
predictablethanpurelyviralapproaches.Tounderstandhowsuchhybridstrategies
work,wefirstexplainbrieflytheessentialdifferencebetweenmassandviralmarketing.
MassMarketingvs.ViralMarketing:Aprimer
ThestandardmodelofmassmarketingisroughlyliketheschematicpresentedinFigure
1.AparticularAdbuywillexposetheclientsmessagetosomelargenumberofpeople,
say N .Ofthatnumber,thereasoninggoes,eachindividualwillrespondtothemessage
inapositiveway(say,bypurchasingtheproduct,changingtheirbehavior,orsimply
developingafavorableimpressionofthebrand)withsomeprobability, p .Thetotal
expectednumberofconversionsgeneratedbytheinvestmentintheadbuyissimply
n .Traditionalmarketing,therefore,isessentiallyamatterofincreasingeither p
(bycreatingpersuasive,informative,targeted,entertaining,orsimplymemorableads),or
N (byexposingtheadtoasmanypotentialconvertsaspossible).

Figure1.Massmarketingschematic
Thestandardmodelofviralmarketingisquitedifferent.Nowtheassumptionisthatone
startswithaverysmallseedofindividualswhospreadamessagebysharingitwith
theirfriends.Inthesimplestcase,eachwordofmouthtransmissionoccurswithsome
constantprobability .Ifeachpersonspreadsthewordto z others,onaverage,thenthe
expectednumberofnewconvertsgeneratedbyeachexistingoneis R ,whichis
calledthereproductionrateinsimpleepidemiologicalmodels.Morerealisticsocial
modelsofcontagiontakeintoaccount,forexample,anindividualsmemory,orthe
numberoftimestheyneedtohearaboutsomethingbeforedecidingtopassiton.But
eveninthesemorecomplicatedcases,onecanstillcomputeaneffectivereproduction
rate.
Thereproductionrateisimportant,becauseif R ,theneachpersonwhogetsthe
message,onaverage,willspreadittomorethanoneadditionalperson,whothendoesthe
samething,andsoon,leadingtoexponentialgrowthinthenumberofpeoplewhohave
receivedit(Figure2,dottedlines).Ontheotherhand,if R (Figure2,solidlines)
thenanysmall,initialseedwillinvariablyburnitselfoutbeforemanyadditionalpeople
getthemessage.Finally, R (Figure2,dashedlines)isaspecialcriticalcasewhere
theoutbreakchangescharacterfromexponentialcollapsetoexponentialgrowth.
Epidemiologiststhereforecall R theepidemicthreshold,andinpublichealth,the
goalistoreduce R below1inordertostopepidemics.Inviralmarketing,however,
where R isusuallycalledatippingpointorsometimesaphasetransition,the
oppositepertains:inorderforsomethingtogoviral,ortip,itneedstohave R .

New Conversions --->

new conversions (R < 1)

total conversions (R < 1)

new conversions (R = 1)

total conversions (R = 1)

new conversions (R > 1)

total conversions (R > 1)

Total Conversions --->

Tim e --->

Tim e --->

Figure2.ViralgrowthasafunctionoftimeandthereproductionrateR.Left
panelshowsnewconversions,andrightpanelshowstotal(i.e.cumulative)
conversions.R>1(dottedlines)leadstoexponentialgrowth;R<1(solidlines)leads
toexponentialdecay;andR=1(dashedlines)representsthecriticalthresholdcase
ofneithergrowthnorcollapse.
Theproblem,ofcourse,isthatdesigningsomethingtohavean R isnomeanfeat.
Notonlymusteachindividual,onaverage,passitontomorethanonenewpersonat
leastoneofthosepeoplemustinturnbemotivatedtopassitonagain,andsoon.
Successfulinfectiousdiseasesallhave R ,buttherearerelativelyfewsuchdiseases,
andtheyaretheproductsofmillionsofyearsofevolutionandnaturalselection.
Marketers,bycontrast,aretryingtocomeupwithviralproductseveryday.Thechances
are,therefore,thateventalentedcreativeswilltypicallydesignproductsthatexhibit
R ,nomatterhowhardtheytry.
BigSeedMarketing
Typically,contagiousentitieswith R arenotconsideredinteresting.Thereasonis
simple:diseaseoutbreaksalmostinvariablycommencewithasingleperson,oftencalled
theindexcase,orpatientzero.Thusepidemicsofdisease,includingwellknownviral
epidemicslikeSARS,Avianflu,andHIV1and2,canonlygrowtoinfectmorethana
smallnumberofpeopleiftheyexceedtheepidemicthreshold.Andbecauseourmental
modelofviralmarketingisderiveddirectlybyanalogywithbiologicalviruses,thesame
conclusionisusuallyappliedtoviralmarketingcampaignsifitdoesntgoviralitis
effectivelyafailure.
Thereisanimportantflawinthisanalogy,however:Bigcompanies,unlikebiological
diseases,canusemassmediaadvertisingtocreateapotentiallyenormousseedofindex
cases.Themainconsequenceofthissimpleobservationisthatevenif R ,the

contagiousprocessmayrequireseveralstepstoburnitselfout,duringwhichtimeaquite
respectablenumberofadditionalpeoplemayhavebeenreached.
Hereshowitworks.Imagineanadvertisingfirmpurchasesanadbuyontheweb,
generating N pageviews,andthatsomefraction p ofviewersaresufficiently
interestedtoclickonthedisplayedads.Typically,thatsallanadbuywouldbe
expectedtoachieve,yielding n0 conversions,justasinanystandardmassmedia
campaign.Butimaginethatviewerswhoclickonanadcannowshareitwithfriends,
colleagues,oranyoneelsewhomtheythinkmightfinditinteresting,informative,or
simplyentertaininginotherwords,whatwouldotherwisebetheentireaudiencefora
productnowbecomes,inaddition,theseedforapotentiallyviralcampaign.Ifeach
memberofthisseedcontactsanaverageof z newpeoplethatispeoplewhowouldnot
otherwisehaveseentherelevantadandsomefraction ofthesecontactsinturnclicks
throughtothead,thenthecampaignhasnowreachedatotalpopulationof
n1 .
Now,ofcourse,thereisnothingtostopthenewlyaddedpeoplefromalsoforwardingthe
messagetotheirfriends,whomayforwardittotheirfriendsinturn,andsoon.Allowing
thisprocesstoproceedindefinitely,wehave n ,
where Ri isthereproductionrateatthe i th removefromtheinitialseed.Ingeneral,
thereisnoreasontoexpectthe Ri tobeequal,becauseindividualswhoarecontactedat
differentstagesmaywellbehaveinsystematicallydifferentways(individualswhoclick
throughfromawebsite,forexample,maybemotivatedtocontactmoreorfewerpeople
thansomeonewhohasbeensentamessagebytheirfriend).Butifwemakethe
simplifyingassumptionthatallparticipantsrespondinmoreorlessthesameway,we
canwritetheaboveexpressionas n .
So,forexample,ifsomecampaignexhibitsan R ,placingitwellbelowtheviral
threshold,thefinalpopulationreached n ,ortwicethenumberthatwouldhave
beenreachedintheabsenceofconsumerssharingtheadmedia.Forthesamesized
investment,inotherwords,theadvertisergets20pairsofeyeballsforthepriceofevery
10.Evenareproductionrateclosertozerosay R willgeneratemorethana10%
gainineyeballsreachedstillarespectableimprovementontraditionaladvertising.
Bigseedswork
Suchbigseedviralcampaignsarenotmerelyhypotheticalinthepasttwoyears,the
opensourcesoftwareForwardTrack,developedatEyebeam,hasbeendeployed
successfullybyarangeofcommercialandnoncommercialmarketingcampaigns.
ForwardTrackworksbyaugmentingstandardonlinetellafriendfunctionalitywith
geographicandsocialnetworktracking.EachparticipantinaForwardTrackcampaign
canseetheirimpactintermsofhowmanyoftheirfriends,friendsoffriends,etc.have
participated,andseethatimpactanimatedonanationalmap.

Althoughitwasoriginallydesignedtofostertrulyviralspread,noneofthecampaigns
thathaveusedForwardTrackhavesucceededingoingviral,inthesenseofgrowing
exponentiallyfromaninitialseedthatis,ofconsistentlyexhibiting R 1 .
Nevertheless,bycombiningtheviralcapabilitiesofForwardTrackwithlargeinitial
seeds,allthecampaignssucceededinreachedlargerpopulationsthantheyhad
previouslyhadaccessto.
Forexample,in2004StopTheNRAandtheBradyCampaignlaunchedTomsPetition
anappealforcommonsenseguncontrolthatwasstartedbyTomMauser,thefatherof
DanielMauser,whowaskilledintheColumbineshootings.AsindicatedinTable1,
TomsPetitionexhibitedanR=.583,enoughtomorethandoublethesizeofthe
campaign.
FollowingthesuccessofTomsPetition,ProctorandGambleincorporatedForwardTrack
intoaviralcampaigntopromoteTideColdwaterasanenergyefficientalternativeto
regularwashingdetergents.Asonemightexpectforacampaignaboutlaundrydetergent
TideColdwaterregisteredalowerR=.041.Butbecausethecampaignwasinitiatedwith
suchalargeseedover900,000theTideColdwaterChallengestillreachedan
additional40,000individuals.
TheOxygenNetwork,aforprofitcablechannelthatputsafreshspinontelevisionfor
women(http://getoxygen.cablesource.net/),usedForwardTracktopoweranadvocacy
portalcalledOh!Speakup.Oneofitscampaigns,inwhichOxygenagreedtodonate$1
foreveryparticipant(upto$25,000)tohurricaneKatrinarelief,exhibitedthehighestR
wehaveseentodate.769leveraginganinitialseedof7,064intoanadditional23,544
participants.
SeveralexamplesofsuccessfulForwardTrackcampaignsaresummarizedinTable1,
whichliststhecampaignname,thesizeoftheinitialseed,thefinalpopulationreached,
andthecorrespondingvaluesof Ri .Noticethatthecloserthereproductionrateofthe
campaignistothecriticalvalueof R 1 ,thelongeritwillpersistfor,andthehigherthe
gain;thusthesmallertherequiredseedpopulation.Bigseedslimitriskandhighvalues
ofRexpandgrowth.
Table1.Rvaluesandtotalgain
DegreeofSeparationfromRoot

1(Seeds)
2
3

StopTheNRA:
Tom'sPetition
22,5821
10,698
6,979

OxygenNetwork:
KatrinaBenefit
7,064
5,298
4,087

P&G:
TideColdwater
Challenge4
960,954
34,679
4,846

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

4,798
9,1152

3,533
2,403
2,374
2,039
1,431
899
593
481
233
91
55
21
4
2

913
188
38
12
3

Seed
TotalReached
Bonus
Gain
R

22,582
54,172
31,590
2.399
0.5833

7,064
30,608
23,544
4.333
0.769

960,954
1,001,633
40,679
1.042
0.0415

TomMauseractuallyreached29friendsatthe1stdegree.Oneofhis'friends'wasStopTheNRA,whosentalargeemailblastthatweconsiderhereastheseedlayer.

Tom'sPetitiongroupedalldegreespastthe6thtogether.Bymemoryitactuallywenttoatleast12degrees.

WithinthistreetherearesubtreeswithhigherRvaluesthatdidnotoriginatefromtheseedlayer.However,theyconsistedoflessthan10%ofthetotalandthesourcedataislost
soweconsiderthemaspartoftheseededeffort.
3

Thiscampaignhad4differentseedingsthatoccurredatdifferentlevelsofthecampaign.Forsimplificationpurposes,wehavebrokenoutthetreesindependentlyandresummed
thembydegree
4

BecauseofthesizeofP&G'semaillists,therewerenumeroustechnicaldifficulties,includingservercapacity,thathinderedthenaturalgrowthofthecampaign.Itispossiblethat
Rwouldhavebeenevenhigher.
5

Table2describessimilarresultsfromaseparatecampaign,conductedrecentlybythe
HuffingtonPost,aprominentweblog/newssite,andJWT,oneofthelargestandoldest
adagenciesinAmerica.Inanunusualexperiment,JWTpurchasedalladvertisingspace
ontheHuffingtonPostforoneweek,inordertoguaranteethatalargeinitialseedof
HuffingtonPostreaderswouldseetheJWTproducedadvertisements.Allthe
advertisementsweredisplayedbyabloggingplatformthatmadeiteasyforconsumersto
sharetheadstheylikedthroughemail,IM,orlinksfromtheirpersonalsites.Aswiththe
ForwardTrackexamples,thesevendifferentAdsprovidedbyJWTrealizeddifferent R ,
rangingfrom0.5to0.97.Overall,however,thecampaignexhibitedan R 0.86 ,
correspondingtoagainofmorethan700%.Inrawnumbers,JWTsAdsreceiveda
combined188,000bonuspageviewsthatis,pageviewsoverandabovetheroughly
30,000thatJWTpaidforthatcamefromfreePRandconsumersharing.JWT,inother
words,gotmorethanseventimesthereachoftheiradbuywithoutthecampaignever
exhibiting R 1 .
PaidViews(Seed)

Ad1
4,073

Ad2
5,731

Ad3
6,973

Ad4
4,585

Ad5
2,567

Ad6
3,966

Ad7
2,280

TOTAL
30,175

ExtraViews
Total
R
Gain

140,088
144,161
0.972
35.394

13,606
19,337
0.704
3.374

7,190
14,163
0.508
2.031

8,716
13,301
0.655
2.901

7,848
10,415
0.754
4.057

5,878
9,844
0.597
2.482

5,343
7,623
0.701
3.343

Table2.ReproductionratesforsevenAdsplacedbyJWTonHuffingtonPost
Finally,itisworthnotingthatsomewellknownviralmarketingcampaigns
surreptitiouslyusedabigseedapproach.Forexample,BurgerKingswidelyadmired
subservientchickencampaignreachedmillionsofviewers,butwasalsosupportedbya
nationwidemarketingeffortthatyieldedaverylargeseed.Althoughmanypeopleheard
aboutthewebsitethroughwordofmouth,manyotherssawtelevisionadspaidforwitha
multimilliondollaradvertisingbudget.Perhapsbecauseitmakesabetterstory,
journalisticaccountsofthecampaignusuallyfailtomentionthepaidadvertisingand
presentthecampaignasapurelyviralphenomenon.Nevertheless,theSubservient
Chickenclearlybenefitedfrompaidadvertisingthatdramaticallyexpandedthereachof
thecampaign.Giventheunknownseedsize,itisdifficulttodetermineifthecampaign
everhadareproductionrategreaterthanone;however,theadvantageofthebigseed
approachisthatacampaigncanbesuccessfulwhen R 1 aswellasintheextremely
rarecasewhere R 1 .
Simplemeansreliable
Althoughournotionofbigseed,subviralmarketingisanextremelysimpleapplication
ofepidemicmodeling,andlacksthemystiqueoftrulyviralmarketing,itcarriesthe
overwhelmingadvantageofbeingrelativelyreliable,aswellasstraightforwardto
implement.Alloneneedsisaccesstoasizeablemailinglistoradbuybreadandbutter
forlargecompanieswhoretainadvertisingfirmsandsomeemailorwebbasedtoolthat
enablespeertopeersharing,intoimproveonesadvertisingyieldby10%,100%oreven
more.
BigSeedMarkingmeanscompaniescangetthebenefitsofviralmarketingwithoutthe
extremedifficultyandunpredictabilityrequiredtoachieveanRvaluegreaterthan1.The
realvalueofviralmarketing,therefore,especiallyforlargemediacompanies,isnotin
theoccasional,unreliable,campaignthattipsitswayintopublicconsciousnessfrom
somesmallseed,butratherthesystematicenhancementofstandardadbuyswithviral
tools,yieldingsmaller,butstilloftenquitesizeablereturnsoninvestment.AstheInternet
maturesandadvertisingadaptstoaneweraofubiquitousnetworks,anincreasing
numberofcompanieswillfindacompetitiveadvantagebyadoptingBigSeedMarketing.
DuncanJ.WattsisprofessorofsociologyatColumbiaUniversity,wherehedirectsthe
CollectiveDynamicsGroup(http://cdg.columbia.edu),andanexternalfacultymemberof
theSantaFeInstitute.HeistheauthorofSixDegrees:TheScienceofaConnectedAge
(W.W.Norton,2003).

188,669
218,844
0.862
7.252

JonahPerettiisafoundingpartneroftheHuffingtonPostandBuzzFeed.Heisthe
formerdirectorofR&DatEyebeamandtheprincipalofContagiousMedia.org
MichaelFruminisR&DTechnicalDirectoratEyebeam,wherehehasbeenthetechnical
leadonanumberofcontagiousmediaresearchteams.Heistheprimarydesignerand
developeroftheForwardTrackopensourceproject,andtheFundrace.orgwebsite.