Raw material for Leather industry-series-post 6

Expected future trends

It is already clear that the global demand for meat will need to find a balance with supply
problems arising from a wide range of issues. In addition to the studies already mentioned, an
FAO study on agriculture (Bruinsma, ed., 2003), notes that: Livestock production is the worlds
largest user of land, either directly through grazing or indirectly through consumption of fodder
and feed-grains. Globally, livestock production currently accounts for some 40% of the gross
value of agricultural production. In industrial countries, this share is more than half. In
developing countries, where it accounts for one-third, its share is rising quickly; livestock
production is increasing rapidly as a result of growth in population and incomes and changes in
lifestyles and dietary habits.
Land use issues are already apparent in China, where some restrictions on development have
been put in place and pig farming has increasingly become industrialized. In the case of Brazil, a
number of papers (e.g., Caviglia-Harris, 2005) have demonstrated that demand for ranching land
for small and medium-size farms has been a reason for deforestation in the Amazon, as it has
been the need for crop land, or the value of timber. The more recent development of interest in
crops for bio-fuels can only increase the pressure on land use.
These changes raise a number of issues related to health, food safety, environment, and poverty
alleviation. Several trends have started to become apparent and are identified in the FAO report:

An increasing proportion of livestock production will originate in warm, humid, and

more disease-prone environments;
There will be a change in livestock production practices, from a local multipurpose
activity to a more intensive, market-oriented and increasingly integrated process;
Pressure on and competition for common property resources such as grazing land and
water will increase;
There will be more large-scale industrial production, located close to urban centres, with
associated environmental and public health risks;
There will be a substantial rise in the use of cereal-based feeds.

These trends raise numerous issues for the leather industry:

What further help can be given to increase the efficiency of farming in Africa in order to
improve the off-take and collection of hides and skins?
What needs to be done to improve and manage the quality of raw material at all stages
farming, slaughter, and tanning?
Africa appears to be one place where land remains available; is the continent suitable for
herd

Growth to make up for lack of land elsewhere?

Hides and skins from camels, kangaroo, deer, yak and other less mainstream animals are
likely to expand their presence in the leather supply chain; the industry needs to learn

how to manage both the technical issues and the potential environmental problems arising
from the use of these materials;
Final product design for footwear, bags, automobile seats, etc. will need to accommodate
hides and skins with surface damage which are otherwise of excellent quality.

Overall, those involved in all aspects of the leather industry can be expected to spend more
time ensuring that they have secure raw material supplies.