Calibrate Response to Pakistan

India and Pakistan have scheduled talks at foreign secretary levels by end of this month
in New Delhi. The timing of talks, coming as it did after visit of John Kerry, Chairman,
Foreign Relations Committee of USA, makes one suspect the US pressure on India to
talk at the behest of Pakistan. India has always maintained that there can not be talks
without substantial progress on 26/11 trials in Pakistan and action against perpetrators of
the crime. USA and Pakistan now know for sure the involvement of state actors and not
just non-state actors as was initially claimed by Pakistan.

One thing is certain that US is more concerned obviously about their own game plan in
Af-Pak, in which India is only a marginal player though on the receiving end of terrorist
activities. Pakistan has made mockery of all the evidences produced by India and has
never had any intentions to give up terrorism as an instrument of state policy. Over last
decade or so application of terrorism as state policy has gone deep into DNA of Pakistan
and the world has been watching just helplessly.

India had requested US to permit interrogation of David Coleman Headley, which was
declined. It is quite possible that Pune blast may have been avoided if we had access to
Headley. It is obvious that terror outfits involved in Mumbai attack are again involved in
Pune. This brings into focus certain aspects of India-Pakistan-USA relationship.

First is that sharing of intelligence inputs between India & US should be institutionalized
in a way that would give preemptive edge to security forces for proactive responses in
both the countries.

Second is that Pakistan is unlikely to heed anytime to Indian inputs of intelligence on

terror activities except for altering their tactics based on our feedback to successfully
strike at will. They have done so in the past and can be depended upon to repeat anytime.

Third is that Pakistan is at proxy war with India while India is still talking about “Talks”.

Time has come now for India to be firm in our approach both with US and Pakistan based
on our own agenda and priorities. We do not have to sacrifice for the sake of US agenda
on Af-Pak unless of course it is in our overall interests.

We have firmly articulated our determination about no talks without action by Pakistan
on terror. So when we suddenly softened our stand and agreed to schedule talks at foreign
secretary levels, it gave impression of succumbing to US pressures. However, gradually
the corrections set in with statements like foreign secretaries can talk about composite
issues but we will focus on terror. This is as if foreign secretaries do not represent
respective governments. Let us not get entangled in diplomatic niceties which have been
long back thrown out of the window by Pakistan. It is time to be forthright in our stand,
quite clear and aloud for the world to know that with Pune blast we have no patience for
niceties of long winding statements which mean nothing. Let us not hide behind words
like being “realistic or pragmatic” which is synonymous of come down. We do not have
to respond with a military action. But let us have polite and yet effective diplomacy,
Sharm el Sheikh not withstanding. Prime Minister is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia.
Earlier, I have suggested that countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt must be
on our side to make Pakistan see our view point on terrorism. We must beef up support
for success of any talks.

P.Chidambaram has rightly reacted to statements of Hafiz Saeed of LeT stating that he
can not dictate to India about what should be done. But some times some weird thoughts
cross my mind. Is Hafiz Saeed speaking for government of Pakistan (read ISI)? How can
he hold rallies in heart of the city under the nose of the government? I think of political
bankruptcy of Pakistan and imagine when some day the world may wake up to the facts
that people like Hafez Saeed are a shadow cabinet of Pakistan! They are so much part &
parcel of overt Pakistani establishment that their government would have to struggle to
save face.

Now that the talks are scheduled, we should give another dossier to Pakistan detailing
what specific actions are needed on Mumbai / Pune attacks before composite dialogue
can be thought of. In any case we are having some work in progress on track II
diplomacy as far as resolution to Kashmir related issues are concerned because
Chidambaram had stated that silent diplomacy is going on without much publicity. That
is a good sign for proactive response. Now the message to Pakistan should be to focus
talks on new composite issues of Mumbai & Pune attacks. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s
covert activities in last two years have pushed Kashmir out of the agenda and issue
now is not about the ends but about the means adopted by Pakistan.

If Pakistan is serious about holding any talks, there must be concrete action from their
side to gain confidence of India for a change. They must give good enough reasons to
India to put issue of terrorism on the backburner. In the meantime, it would be
interesting to wait for the court verdict against Ajmal Kasab, the Mumbai terror
attack accused. The verdict should send a strong message to all those who matter. I
hope we will not create another Afzal Guru!

Vijay M. Deshpande
Corporate Advisor,
Strategic Management Initiative,
Pune

February 19, 2010

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