Hypos Testing

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall
Inferences Based on a Single Sample:

Tests of Hypothesis
8-1
Learning Objectives
1. Distinguish Types of Hypotheses

2. Describe Hypothesis Testing Process
3. Explain pp-Value Concept
4. Solve Hypothesis Testing Problems
Based on a Single Sample
5. Explain Power of a Test
8-2
Statistical Methods
Statistical
Methods
Descriptive
Statistics
Inferential
Statistics
Estimation
8-3
Hypothesis
Testing
Hypothesis Testing Concepts
8-4
Hypothesis Testing
8-5
Hypothesis Testing
Population
8-6
Hypothesis Testing
Population
8-7
I believe the
population
mean age is 50
(hypothesis).
Hypothesis Testing
Population
I believe the
population
mean age is 50
(hypothesis).
Random
sample
Mean
X = 20
8-8
Hypothesis Testing
Population
I believe the
population
mean age is 50
(hypothesis).
Random
sample
Mean
X = 20
8-9
Reject
hypothesis!
Not close.
Whats a Hypothesis?
1. A Belief about a
Population Parameter
Parameter Is
Population Mean,
Proportion, Variance
Must Be Stated
Before Analysis
I believe the mean GPA

of this class is 3.5!
1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
8 - 10
Null Hypothesis
1. What Is Tested
2. Has Serious Outcome If Incorrect
Decision Made
3. Designated H0 (Pronounced HH-nought
nought))
4. Specified as H0: Some Numeric Value
Specified with = Sign , or

Example, H0: 3
8 - 11
Alternative Hypothesis
1. Opposite of Null Hypothesis

2. Always Has Inequality Sign: ,, or
3. Designated Ha
4. Specified Ha: < Some Value
Example, Ha: < 3

will lead to two
two--sided tests
<, > will lead to oneone-sided tests
8 - 12
Identifying Hypotheses
Steps
1. Example Problem: Test That the

Population Mean Is Not 3
2. Steps
State the Question Statistically (

( 3)
State the Opposite Statistically (
( = 3)
Select the Alternative Hypothesis (

( 3)
Must Be Mutually Exclusive & Exhaustive

Has the , <, or > Sign
State the Null Hypothesis (

( = 3)
8 - 13
What Are the Hypotheses?

Is the population average amount of TV

viewing 12 hours?
State the question statistically: = 12
State the opposite statistically: 12
Select the alternative hypothesis: Ha: 12
State the null hypothesis: H0: = 12
8 - 14

Is the population average amount of TV

viewing different from 12 hours?
State the question statistically: 12
State the opposite statistically: = 12
State the null hypothesis: H0: = 12
8 - 15

Is the average cost per hat less than or

equal to P20?
State the null hypothesis: H0: 20
8 - 16

Is the average amount spent in the

bookstore greater than P25?
State the null hypothesis: H0: 25
8 - 17
Basic Idea
8 - 18
Basic Idea
Sampling Distribution
= 50
8 - 19
H0
Sample Mean
Basic Idea
It is unlikely
that we would
get a sample
mean of this
value ...
20
8 - 20
= 50
H0
Sample Mean
Basic Idea
It is unlikely
that we would
get a sample
mean of this
value ...
... if in fact this were
the population mean
20
8 - 21
= 50
H0
Sample Mean
Basic Idea
It is unlikely
that we would
get a sample
mean of this
value ...
... therefore,
we reject the
hypothesis
that = 50.
... if in fact this were
the population mean
20
8 - 22
= 50
H0
Sample Mean
Level of Significance
1. Probability
2. Defines Unlikely Values of Sample
Statistic if Null Hypothesis Is True
Called Rejection Region of Sampling

Distribution
3. Designated
(alpha)
(alpha)
Typical Values Are .01, .05, .10
4. Selected by Researcher at Start

8 - 23
8 - 24
Rejection Region
(One--Tail Test)
(One
Rejection Region
(One--Tail Test)
(One
Level of Confidence
Rejection
Region
1-
Nonrejection
Region
Critical
Value
8 - 25
Ho
Value
Sample Statistic
Rejection Region
(One--Tail Test)
(One
Level of Confidence
Rejection
Region
1-
Nonrejection
Region
Critical
Value
8 - 26
Ho
Value
Sample Statistic
Observed sample statistic
Rejection Region
(One--Tail Test)
(One
Level of Confidence
Rejection
Region
1-
Nonrejection
Region
Critical
Value
8 - 27
Ho
Value
Sample Statistic
8 - 28
Rejection Regions
(Two--Tailed Test)
(Two
Rejection Regions
(Two--Tailed Test)
(Two
Level of Confidence
Rejection
Region
1/2
Rejection
Region
1-
Nonrejection
Region
Critical
Value
8 - 29
1/2
Ho
Sample Statistic
Value Critical
Value
Rejection Regions
(Two--Tailed Test)
(Two
Level of Confidence
Rejection
Region
1/2
Rejection
Region
1-
Nonrejection
Region
Critical
Value
8 - 30
1/2
Ho
Sample Statistic
Value Critical
Value
Observed sample statistic
Rejection Regions
(Two--Tailed Test)
(Two
Level of Confidence
Rejection
Region
1/2
Rejection
Region
1-
Nonrejection
Region
Critical
Value
8 - 31
1/2
Ho
Sample Statistic
Value Critical
Value
Rejection Regions
(Two--Tailed Test)
(Two
Level of Confidence
Rejection
Region
1/2
Rejection
Region
1-
Nonrejection
Region
Critical
Value
8 - 32
1/2
Ho
Sample Statistic
Value Critical
Value
Hypothesis Testing Steps
8 - 33
H0 Testing Steps
8 - 34
H0 Testing Steps
State H0
State Ha
Choose
Choose n
Choose test
8 - 35
H0 Testing Steps
State H0
Set up critical values
State Ha
Collect data
Choose
Compute test statistic
Choose n
Make statistical decision
Choose test
Express decision
8 - 36
One Population Tests

One
Population
Mean
Proportion
Variance
Z Test
t Test
Z Test
2 Test
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
8 - 37
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twoof Mean (
( Known)
8 - 38

One
Population
Mean
Proportion
Variance
Z Test
t Test
Z Test
2 Test
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
8 - 39
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twofor Mean (
( Known)
1. Assumptions
Population Is Normally Distributed

If Not Normal, Can Be Approximated by
Normal Distribution (n
(n 30)
2. Alternative Hypothesis Has Sign
8 - 40
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twofor Mean (
( Known)
1. Assumptions

(n 30)
2. Alternative Hypothesis Has Sign

3. Z-Test Statistic
X x X
Z
x
n
8 - 41
Two--Tailed Z Test
Two
Example
Does an average box of

cereal contain 368 grams
of cereal? A random
sample of 25 boxes
showed
showed
X = 372.5.
372.5. The
company has specified
to be 25 grams. Test at
the .05 level.
8 - 42
368 gm.
Two--Tailed Z Test
Two
Solution
H 0:
H a:
n
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 43
Two--Tailed Z Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Ha: 368
n
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 44
Two--Tailed Z Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Ha: 368
.05
n 25
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 45
Two--Tailed Z Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Ha: 368
.05
n 25
Critical Value(s):
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 46
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
Two--Tailed Z Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Test Statistic:
Ha: 368
X 372.5 368
Z
1.50
.05
15
n 25
n
25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 47
Conclusion:
Two--Tailed Z Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Test Statistic:
Ha: 368
X 372.5 368
Z
1.50
.05
15
n 25
n
25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Do not reject at = .05
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 48
Conclusion:
Two--Tailed Z Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Test Statistic:
Ha: 368
X 372.5 368
Z
1.50
.05
15
n 25
n
25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 49
Conclusion:
No evidence
average is not 368
Two-Tailed Z Test
TwoThinking Challenge
Youre a Q/C inspector. You want to

find out if a new machine is making
electrical cords to customer
specification: average breaking
strength of 70 lb. with = 3.5 lb.
You take a sample of 36 cords &
compute a sample mean of 69.7 lb.
At the .05 level, is there evidence
that the machine is not meeting the
average breaking strength?
8 - 50
Two-Tailed Z Test
TwoSolution*
H 0:
H a:
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 51
Two-Tailed Z Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 70
Ha: 70
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 52
Two-Tailed Z Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 70
Ha: 70
= .05
n = 36
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 53
Two-Tailed Z Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 70
Ha: 70
= .05
n = 36
Critical Value(s):
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 54
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
Two-Tailed Z Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 70
Ha: 70
= .05
n = 36
Critical Value(s):
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 55
Test Statistic:
X 69.7 70
Z
.51
3.5
n
36
Decision:
Conclusion:
Two-Tailed Z Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 70
Ha: 70
= .05
n = 36
Critical Value(s):
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 56
Test Statistic:
X 69.7 70
Z
.51
3.5
n
36
Decision:
Conclusion:
Two-Tailed Z Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 70
Ha: 70
= .05
n = 36
Critical Value(s):
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 57
Test Statistic:
X 69.7 70
Z
.51
3.5
n
36
Decision:
Conclusion:
No evidence
average is not 70
One-Tailed Z Test
Oneof Mean (
( Known)
8 - 58
One-Tailed Z Test
Onefor Mean (
( Known)
1. Assumptions

(n 30)
2. Alternative Hypothesis Has < or > Sign
8 - 59
One-Tailed Z Test
Onefor Mean (
( Known)
1. Assumptions

(n 30)
2. Alternative Hypothesis Has

or
or > Sign
3. Z-test Statistic
X x X
Z
x
n
8 - 60
8 - 61
One-Tailed Z Test
Onefor Mean Hypotheses
One-Tailed Z Test
H0:
=
=0 Ha: < 0
Reject H0
0
Must be significantly
below
8 - 62
One-Tailed Z Test
H0:
=
=0 Ha: < 0
H0:
=
=0 Ha: > 0
Reject H0
Reject H0
Must be significantly
below
8 - 63
0
Small values satisfy
H0 . Dont reject!
8 - 64
One-Tailed Z Test
OneFinding Critical Z
One-Tailed Z Test
What Is Z given = .025?
=1
= .025
0
8 - 65
One-Tailed Z Test

.500
- .025
.475
=1
= .025
0
8 - 66
One-Tailed Z Test

.500
- .025
.475
=1
Standardized Normal
Probability Table (Portion)
.05
.06
.07
1.6 .4505 .4515 .4525
= .025
1.7 .4599 .4608 .4616

1.8 .4678 .4686 .4693
1.9 .4744 .4750 .4756

8 - 67
One-Tailed Z Test

.500
- .025
.475
=1
.05
.06
.07
1.6 .4505 .4515 .4525
= .025
0 1.96 Z
8 - 68
Standardized Normal
Probability Table (Portion)
1.7 .4599 .4608 .4616
1.9 .4744 .4750 .4756
1.8 .4678 .4686 .4693
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Example

cereal contain more than
368 grams of cereal? A
random sample of 25
boxes showed
showedX = 372.5.
372.5.
The company has
specified to be 25
grams. Test at the .05
level.
8 - 69
368 gm.
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution
H 0:
H a:
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 70
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution
H0: = 368
Ha: > 368
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 71
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution
H0: = 368
Ha: > 368
= .05
n = 25
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 72
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution
H0: = 368
Ha: > 368
= .05
n = 25
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Reject
.05
0 1.645 Z
8 - 73
Conclusion:
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution
H0: = 368
Test Statistic:
Ha: > 368
X 372.5 368
Z
1
.
50
= .05
15
n = 25
n
25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05
0 1.645 Z
8 - 74
Conclusion:
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution
H0: = 368
Test Statistic:
Ha: > 368
X 372.5 368
Z
1
.
50
= .05
15
n = 25
n
25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05
Conclusion:
0 1.645 Z
8 - 75
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution
H0: = 368
Test Statistic:
Ha: > 368
X 372.5 368
Z
1
.
50
= .05
15
n = 25
n
25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05
Conclusion:
No evidence average
is more than 368
0 1.645 Z
8 - 76
One-Tailed Z Test
OneThinking Challenge
Youre an analyst for Ford. You

want to find out if the average
miles per gallon of Escorts is at
least 32 mpg. Similar models
have a standard deviation of 3.8
mpg. You take a sample of 60
Escorts & compute a sample
mean of 30.7 mpg. At the .01
level, is there evidence that the
miles per gallon is at least 32
32?
?
8 - 77
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution*
H 0:
H a:
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 78
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution*
H0: = 32
Ha: < 32
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 79
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution*
H0: = 32
Ha: < 32
= .01
n = 60
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 80
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution*
H0: = 32
Ha: < 32
= .01
n = 60
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Reject
.01
-2.33 0
8 - 81
Conclusion:
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution*
H0: = 32
Ha: < 32
= .01
n = 60
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
X 30.7 32
Z
2.65
3.8
n
60
Decision:
Reject
.01
-2.33 0
8 - 82
Conclusion:
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution*
H0: = 32
Ha: < 32
= .01
n = 60
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
X 30.7 32
Z
2.65
3.8
n
60
Reject
Decision:
Reject at = .01
.01
Conclusion:
-2.33 0
8 - 83
One--Tailed Z Test
One
Solution*
H0: = 32
Ha: < 32
= .01
n = 60
Critical Value(s):
Reject
.01
-2.33 0
8 - 84
Test Statistic:
X 30.7 32
Z
2.65
3.8
n
60
Decision:
Reject at = .01
Conclusion:
There is evidence
average is less than 32
Decision Making Risks
8 - 85
Errors in
Making Decision
1. Type I Error
Reject True Null Hypothesis

Has Serious Consequences
Probability of Type I Error Is
(Alpha)
(Alpha)
Called Level of Significance
2. Type II Error
Do Not Reject False Null Hypothesis

Probability of Type II Error Is
(Beta)
(Beta)
8 - 86
Decision Results
H0: Innocent
Jury Trial
H0 Test
Actual Situation
Verdict
Innocent Guilty Decision H0 True
Innocent Correct
Guilty
8 - 87
Actual Situation
Error
Error
Do Not
Reject
H0
Correct
Reject
H0
1-
H0
False
Type II
Error
()
Type I Power
Error () (1 )
Decision Results
H0: Innocent
Jury Trial
H0 Test
Actual Situation
Verdict
Innocent Guilty Decision H0 True
Innocent Correct
Guilty
8 - 88
Actual Situation
Error
Error
Correct
Accept
H0
Reject
H0
1-
H0
False
Type II
Error
()
Type I
Power
Error ()
(1 - )
& Have an
Inverse Relationship
You cant reduce both
errors simultaneously!
8 - 89
Factors Affecting
1. True Value of Population Parameter
Increases When Difference With Hypothesized

Parameter Decreases
2. Significance Level,
Increases When
Decreases
Decreases
3. Population Standard Deviation,
Increases When Increases

4. Sample Size, n
Increases When n Decreases
8 - 90
Exercise 8.15
1000 subjects
500 told truth, 500 lied
Lie detector says
185 truth tellers were liars
120 liars were truth tellers
Ho: truth teller

a) What is a typetype-I error? Type
Type--II error?
b) What is Pr(typePr(type-I error)? Pr(type
Pr(type--II error)?
8 - 91
Observed Significance
Levels: pp-Values
8 - 92
p-Value
1. Probability of Obtaining a Test Statistic

or
than
than Actual
More Extreme (
(or
Sample Value Given H0 Is True
2. Called Observed Level of Significance
Smallest Value of H0 Can Be Rejected
3. Used to Make Rejection Decision
If pp-Value , Do Not Reject H0

If pp-Value < , Reject H0
8 - 93
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twop-Value Example

cereal contain 368 grams
of cereal? A random
sample of 25 boxes
showed
showed
X = 372.5.
372.5. The
company has specified
to be 25 grams. Find the
p-Value.
8 - 94
368 gm.
8 - 95
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twop-Value Solution
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twop-Value Solution
X 372.5 368
Z
1.50
15
n
25
-1.50 0 1.50
8 - 96
Z
Z value of sample
statistic (observed)
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twop-Value Solution
p-value is P(Z -1.50 or Z 1.50)
-1.50 0 1.50
8 - 97
Z
Z value of sample
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twop-Value Solution

1/2 p-Value
1/2 p-Value
-1.50 0 1.50
8 - 98
Z
Z value of sample
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twop-Value Solution

1/2 p-Value
1/2 p-Value
.4332
-1.50 0 1.50
8 - 99
From Z table:
lookup 1.50
Z
Z value of sample
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twop-Value Solution

1/2 p-Value
1/2 p-Value
.4332
-1.50 0 1.50
8 - 100
From Z table:
lookup 1.50
.5000
- .4332
.0668
Z
Z value of sample
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twop-Value Solution
p-value is P(Z -1.50 or Z 1.50) = .1336

1/2 p-Value
.0668
1/2 p-Value
.0668
.4332
-1.50 0 1.50
8 - 101
From Z table:
lookup 1.50
.5000
- .4332
.0668
Z
Z value of sample
statistic
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twop-Value Solution
1/2 pp-Value = .0668
1/2 pp-Value = .0668
Reject
Reject
1/2 = .025
1/2 = .025
-1.50 0 1.50
8 - 102
Two-Tailed Z Test
Twop-Value Solution
(p
(p--Value = .1336) ( = .05).
Do not reject.
1/2 pp-Value = .0668
1/2 pp-Value = .0668
Reject
Reject
1/2 = .025
1/2 = .025
-1.50 0 1.50
Test statistic is in Do not reject region
8 - 103
One-Tailed Z Test
Onep-Value Example

cereal contain more than
368 grams of cereal? A
random sample of 25
boxes showed
showedX = 372.5.
372.5.
The company has
specified to be 25
grams. Find the pp-Value.
8 - 104
368 gm.
8 - 105
One-Tailed Z Test
Onep-Value Solution
One-Tailed Z Test
Onep-Value Solution
X 372.5 368
Z
1.50
15
n
25
0 1.50
8 - 106
Z
Z value of sample
statistic
One-Tailed Z Test
Onep-Value Solution
p-Value is P(Z 1.50)
Use
alternative
hypothesis
to find
direction
p-Value
0 1.50
8 - 107
Z
Z value of sample
statistic
One-Tailed Z Test
Onep-Value Solution
p-Value
Use
alternative
hypothesis
to find
direction
.4332
0 1.50
8 - 108
From Z table:
lookup 1.50
Z
Z value of sample
statistic
One-Tailed Z Test
Onep-Value Solution
p-Value
Use
alternative
hypothesis
to find
direction
.4332
0 1.50
8 - 109
From Z table:
lookup 1.50
.5000
- .4332
.0668
Z
Z value of sample
statistic
One-Tailed Z Test
Onep-Value Solution
p-Value is P(Z 1.50) = .0668
p-Value
.0668
Use
alternative
hypothesis
to find
direction
.4332
0 1.50
8 - 110
From Z table:
lookup 1.50
.5000
- .4332
.0668
Z
Z value of sample
statistic
One-Tailed Z Test
Onep-Value Solution
p-Value = .0668
Reject
= .05
0 1.50
8 - 111
One-Tailed Z Test
Onep-Value Solution
(p
(p--Value = .0668) ( = .05).
Do not reject.
p-Value = .0668
Reject
= .05
0 1.50
Test statistic is in Do not reject region
8 - 112
p-Value
Thinking Challenge
Youre an analyst for Ford. You

want to find out if the average
miles per gallon of Escorts is at
least 32 mpg. Similar models
have a standard deviation of 3.8
mpg. You take a sample of 60
Escorts & compute a sample
mean of 30.7 mpg. What is the
value of the observed level of
significance (p
(p-Value
Value)?
)?
8 - 113
p-Value
Solution*
p-Value is P(Z -2.65) = .004.

p-Value < (
( = .01). Reject H0.
Use
alternative
hypothesis
to find
direction
p-Value
.004
Z value of
sample statistic
8 - 114
.5000
- .4960
.0040
.4960
-2.65
From Z table:
lookup 2.65
Two-Tailed t Test
Twoof Mean (
( Unknown)
8 - 115

One
Population
Mean
Proportion
Variance
Z Test
t Test
Z Test
2 Test
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
8 - 116
t Test for Mean

( Unknown)
1. Assumptions

If Not Normal, Only Slightly Skewed &
Large Sample (n
(n 30) Taken
2. Parametric Test Procedure
8 - 117
t Test for Mean

( Unknown)
1. Assumptions

If Not Normal, Only Slightly Skewed &
Large Sample (n
(n 30) Taken
2. Parametric Test Procedure

3. t Test Statistic
X
t
S
n
8 - 118
8 - 119
Two-Tailed t Test
TwoFinding Critical t Values
Two-Tailed t Test
Given: n = 3; = .10
0
8 - 120
Two-Tailed t Test
Given: n = 3; = .10
/2 = .05
0
/2 = .05
8 - 121
Two-Tailed t Test
Given: n = 3; = .10
df = n - 1 = 2
/2 = .05
0
/2 = .05
8 - 122
Two-Tailed t Test
Given: n = 3; = .10
df = n - 1 = 2
/2 = .05
0
/2 = .05
8 - 123
Critical Values of t Table

(Portion)
t.10
t.05
t.025
1 3.078 6.314 12.706

2 1.886 2.920 4.303
3 1.638 2.353 3.182
Two-Tailed t Test
Given: n = 3; = .10
df = n - 1 = 2
/2 = .05
8 - 124
t.10
t.05
t.025
1 3.078 6.314 12.706

2 1.886 2.920 4.303
-2.920 0 2.920 t
/2 = .05
Critical Values of t Table

(Portion)
3 1.638 2.353 3.182
Two--Tailed t Test
Two
Example

cereal contain 368
grams of cereal? A
random sample of 36
boxes had a mean of
372.5 & a standard
deviation of 12 grams.
Test at the .05 level.
8 - 125
368 gm.
Two--Tailed t Test
Two
Solution
H 0:
H a:
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 126
Two--Tailed t Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Ha: 368
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 127
Two--Tailed t Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Ha: 368
= .05
df = 36 - 1 = 35
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 128
Two--Tailed t Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Ha: 368
= .05
df = 36 - 1 = 35
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-2.0301 0 2.0301
8 - 129
Conclusion:
Two--Tailed t Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Test Statistic:
Ha: 368
X 372.5 368
t
2
.
25
= .05
S
12
df = 36 - 1 = 35
n
36
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-2.0301 0 2.0301
8 - 130
Conclusion:
Two--Tailed t Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Test Statistic:
Ha: 368
X 372.5 368
t
2
.
25
= .05
S
12
df = 36 - 1 = 35
n
36
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject at = .05
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-2.0301 0 2.0301
8 - 131
Conclusion:
Two--Tailed t Test
Two
Solution
H0: = 368
Test Statistic:
Ha: 368
X 372.5 368
t
2
.
25
= .05
S
12
df = 36 - 1 = 35
n
36
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject at = .05
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-2.0301 0 2.0301
8 - 132
Conclusion:
There is evidence pop.
average is not 368
Two-Tailed t Test
TwoThinking Challenge
You work for the FTC. A

manufacturer of detergent
claims that the mean weight
of detergent is 3.25 lb. You
take a random sample of 64
containers. You calculate the
sample average to be 3.238
lb. with a standard deviation
of .117 lb. At the .01 level, is
the manufacturer correct?
8 - 133
3.25 lb.
Two-Tailed t Test
TwoSolution*
H 0:
H a:
df
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 134
Two-Tailed t Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 3.25
Ha: 3.25
df
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 135
Two-Tailed t Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 3.25
Ha: 3.25
.01
df 64 - 1 = 63
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 136
Two-Tailed t Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 3.25
Ha: 3.25
.01
df 64 - 1 = 63
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Reject H0
Reject H0
.005
.005
-2.6561 0 2.6561
8 - 137
Conclusion:
Two-Tailed t Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 3.25
Test Statistic:
Ha: 3.25
X 3.238 3.25
.
t
82
.01
S
.117
df 64 - 1 = 63
n
64
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject H0
Reject H0
.005
.005
-2.6561 0 2.6561
8 - 138
Conclusion:
Two-Tailed t Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 3.25
Test Statistic:
Ha: 3.25
X 3.238 3.25
.
t
82
.01
S
.117
df 64 - 1 = 63
n
64
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject H0
Reject H0
.005
.005
-2.6561 0 2.6561
8 - 139
Conclusion:
Two-Tailed t Test
TwoSolution*
H0: = 3.25
Test Statistic:
Ha: 3.25
X 3.238 3.25
.
t
82
.01
S
.117
df 64 - 1 = 63
n
64
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject H0
Reject H0
.005
.005
-2.6561 0 2.6561
8 - 140
Conclusion:
There is no evidence
average is not 3.25
One-Tailed t Test
Oneof Mean (
( Unknown)
8 - 141
One--Tailed t Test
One
Example
Is the average capacity of

batteries at least 140
ampere--hours? A random
ampere
sample of 20 batteries had
a mean of 138.47 & a
standard deviation of 2.66
2.66..
Assume a normal
distribution. Test at the .05
level.
8 - 142
One--Tailed t Test
One
Solution
H 0:
H a:
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 143
One--Tailed t Test
One
Solution
H0: = 140
Ha: < 140
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 144
One--Tailed t Test
One
Solution
H0: = 140
Ha: < 140
= .05
df = 20 - 1 = 19
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 145
One--Tailed t Test
One
Solution
H0: = 140
Ha: < 140
= .05
df = 20 - 1 = 19
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Reject
.05
-1.7291 0
8 - 146
Conclusion:
One--Tailed t Test
One
Solution
H0: = 140
Test Statistic:
Ha: < 140
X 138.47 140
.
t
2
57
= .05
S
2.66
df = 20 - 1 = 19
n
20
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05
-1.7291 0
8 - 147
Conclusion:
One--Tailed t Test
One
Solution
H0: = 140
Test Statistic:
Ha: < 140
X 138.47 140
.
t
2
57
= .05
S
2.66
df = 20 - 1 = 19
n
20
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject at = .05
Reject
.05
-1.7291 0
8 - 148
Conclusion:
One--Tailed t Test
One
Solution
H0: = 140
Test Statistic:
Ha: < 140
X 138.47 140
.
t
2
57
= .05
S
2.66
df = 20 - 1 = 19
n
20
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject at = .05
Reject
.05
-1.7291 0
8 - 149
Conclusion:
There is evidence pop.
average is less than 140
One-Tailed t Test
Youre a marketing analyst for

Wal--Mart. Wal
Wal
Wal--Mart had teddy
bears on sale last week. The
weekly sales ($ 00) of bears
sold in 10 stores was: 8 11 0
4 7 8 10 5 8 3.
3.
At the .05 level, is there
evidence that the average bear
sales per store is more than 5
($ 00)?
8 - 150
One-Tailed t Test
OneSolution*
H 0:
H a:
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 151
One-Tailed t Test
OneSolution*
H 0: = 5
H a: > 5
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 152
One-Tailed t Test
OneSolution*
H 0: = 5
H a: > 5
= .05
df = 10 - 1 = 9
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 153
One-Tailed t Test
OneSolution*
H 0: = 5
H a: > 5
= .05
df = 10 - 1 = 9
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Reject
Conclusion:
.05
0 1.8331
8 - 154
One-Tailed t Test
OneSolution*
H 0: = 5
H a: > 5
= .05
df = 10 - 1 = 9
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
X 6.4 5
t
1.31
S
3.373
n
10
Decision:
Reject
Conclusion:
.05
0 1.8331
8 - 155
One-Tailed t Test
OneSolution*
H 0: = 5
H a: > 5
= .05
df = 10 - 1 = 9
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
X 6.4 5
t
1.31
S
3.373
n
10
Reject
Conclusion:
.05
0 1.8331
8 - 156
Decision:
One-Tailed t Test
OneSolution*
H 0: = 5
H a: > 5
= .05
df = 10 - 1 = 9
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
X 6.4 5
t
1.31
S
3.373
n
10
Reject
.05
0 1.8331
8 - 157
Decision:
Conclusion:
average is more than 5
Z Test of Proportion
8 - 158
Data Types
Data
Numerical
Discrete
8 - 159
Continuous
Qualitative
1.
of Proportion
Approximated by
Normal Distribution
np 3 np 1 p
Excludes 0 or n
2.
Mean
P p
3.
Standard Error
P(P )
.3
.2
.1
.0
P
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
p0 1 p 0
where p0 = Population Proportion
p^
n
8 - 160
Standardizing Sampling
Distribution of Proportion
^
p p
^
p^
p p0
p0 (1 p0)
n
Sampling
Distribution
P^
Standardized
Normal Distribution
z = 1
P^
8 - 161
Z= 0

One
Population
Mean
Proportion
Variance
Z Test
t Test
Z Test
2 Test
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
8 - 162
8 - 163
One-Sample Z Test
Onefor Proportion
One-Sample Z Test
Onefor Proportion
1. Assumptions
Two Categorical Outcomes

Population Follows Binomial Distribution
Normal Approximation Can Be Used
np 3 np 1 p Does Not Contain 0 or n
8 - 164
One-Sample Z Test
Onefor Proportion
1. Assumptions
Two Categorical Outcomes

Population Follows Binomial Distribution
Normal Approximation Can Be Used
np 3 np1 p Does Not Contain 0 or n
2. Z-test statistic for proportion

Z
8 - 165
p p0
p0 (1 p0 )
n
Hypothesized
population proportion
One--Proportion Z Test
One
Example
The present packaging

system produces 10%
defective cereal boxes.
Using a new system, a
random sample of 200
boxes had
had11 defects.
Does the new system
produce fewer defects?
Test at the .05 level.
8 - 166
One
Solution
H 0:
H a:
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 167
One
Solution
H0: p = .10
Ha: p < .10
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 168
One
Solution
H0: p =.10
Ha: p < .10
= .05
n = 200
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 169
One
Solution
H0: p = .10
Ha: p < .10
= .05
n = 200
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Reject
.05
-1.645 0
8 - 170
Conclusion:
One
Solution
H0: p = .10
Test Statistic:
11
Ha: p < .10
.
10
p p0
200
2.12
= .05
p0 (1 p0 )
.10 (1 .10)
n = 200
n
200
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05
-1.645 0
8 - 171
Conclusion:
One
Solution
H0: p = .10
Test Statistic:
11
Ha: p < .10
.
10
p p0
200
2.12
= .05
p0 (1 p0 )
.10 (1 .10)
n = 200
n
200
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
Reject at = .05
.05
Conclusion:
-1.645 0
8 - 172
One
Solution
H0: p = .10
Test Statistic:
11
Ha: p < .10
.
10
p p0
200
2.12
= .05
p0 (1 p0 )
.10 (1 .10)
n = 200
n
200
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
Reject at = .05
.05
Conclusion:
-1.645 0
8 - 173
There is evidence new

system < 10% defective
One-Proportion Z Test
Youre an accounting
manager. A yearyear-end audit
showed 4% of transactions
had errors. You implement
new procedures. A random
sample of 500 transactions
had 25 errors. Has the
proportion of incorrect
transactions changed at the
.05 level
level?
?
8 - 174
One
Solution*
H 0:
H a:
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 175
One
Solution*
H0: p = .04
Ha: p .04
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 176
One
Solution*
H0: p = .04
Ha: p .04
= .05
n = 500
Critical Value(s):
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 177
One
Solution*
H0: p = .04
Ha: p .04
= .05
n = 500
Critical Value(s):
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 178
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
One
Solution*
H0: p = .04
Ha: p .04
Z
= .05
n = 500
Critical Value(s):
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 179
Test Statistic:
25
.04
p p0
114
500
.
p0 (1 p0 )
.04 (1 .04 )
n
500
Decision:
Conclusion:
One
Solution*
H0: p = .04
Ha: p .04
Z
= .05
n = 500
Critical Value(s):
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 180
Test Statistic:
25
.04
p p0
114
500
.
p0 (1 p0 )
.04 (1 .04 )
n
500
Decision:
Conclusion:
One
Solution*
H0: p = .04
Ha: p .04
Z
= .05
n = 500
Critical Value(s):
Reject H0
Reject H0
.025
.025
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 181
Test Statistic:
25
.04
p p0
114
500
.
p0 (1 p0 )
.04 (1 .04 )
n
500
Decision:
Conclusion:
proportion has
changed from 4%

One
Population
Mean
Proportion
Variance
Z Test
t Test
Z Test
2 Test
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
(1 & 2
tail)
8 - 182
Confidence Intervals, Hypothesis

Tests, and pp-values
All Start with Known Sampling Distribution for X

Confidence Interval
Pr( X> given distance z / 2 from ) =
Draw an interval of size z
/ 2 around actual X
1- is the confidence level
P-Value
Assume true mean

Pr( X > measured distance) = p
For oneone-sided value, no absolute value
Hypothesis test
Pick , If p < , reject the null hypothesis
8 - 183
Calculating Type II Error

Probabilities
8 - 184
Power of Test
1. Probability of Rejecting False H0
Correct Decision
2. Designated 1 -
3. Used in Determining Test Adequacy
4. Affected by
True Value of Population Parameter

Significance Level
Standard Deviation & Sample Size n
8 - 185
Hypothesis:
H0: 0 368
H1: 0 < 368
Finding Power
Step 1
n =
n
25
15/
15/
Reject
= .05
Do Not
Reject
0 = 368
8 - 186
Draw
Hypothesis:
H0: 0 368
H1: 0 < 368
Finding Power
Steps 2 & 3
n =
n
25
15/
15/
Reject
Do Not
Reject
= .05
0 = 368
True Situation:
1 = 360
Specify
8 - 187
Draw
1-
1 = 360
Draw
Hypothesis:
H0: 0 368
H1: 0 < 368
Finding Power
Step 4
n =
n
25
15/
15/
Reject
Do Not
Reject
= .05
0 = 368
True Situation:
1 = 360
Draw
Draw
15
3681.64
25
n
363.065
X L 0 Z
Specify
8 - 188
1 = 360 363.065 X
Finding Power
Step 5
Hypothesis:
H0: 0 368
H1: 0 < 368
n =
n
25
15/
15/
Reject
Do Not
Reject
= .05
0 = 368
True Situation:
1 = 360
Specify
8 - 189
Z Table
Draw
Draw
15
3681.64
25
n
363.065
X L 0 Z
= .154
1- =.846
1 = 360 363.065 X
Power Curves
Power H0: 0
Possible True Values for 1
Power H0: 0
Power H0: =0
8 - 190
= 368 in
Example
Conclusion
1. Distinguished Types of Hypotheses

2. Described Hypothesis Testing Process
3. Explained pp-Value Concept
4. Solved Hypothesis Testing Problems
Based on a Single Sample
5. Explained Power of a Test
8 - 191
End of Chapter
Any blank slides that follow are
blank intentionally.

Hypos Testing

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Hypos Testing

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Inferences Based on a Single Sample:

1. Distinguish Types of Hypotheses

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Hypothesis Testing Concepts

I believe the mean GPA

1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Specified with = Sign , or

1. Opposite of Null Hypothesis

Example, Ha: < 3

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

1. Example Problem: Test That the

State the Question Statistically (

Select the Alternative Hypothesis (

Must Be Mutually Exclusive & Exhaustive

State the Null Hypothesis (

What Are the Hypotheses?

Is the population average amount of TV

What Are the Hypotheses?

Is the population average amount of TV

What Are the Hypotheses?

Is the average cost per hat less than or

What Are the Hypotheses?

Is the average amount spent in the

Called Rejection Region of Sampling

Typical Values Are .01, .05, .10

4. Selected by Researcher at Start

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Observed sample statistic

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Hypothesis Testing Steps

Set up critical values

Compute test statistic

Make statistical decision

One Population Tests

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

One Population Tests

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Population Is Normally Distributed

2. Alternative Hypothesis Has Sign

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Population Is Normally Distributed

2. Alternative Hypothesis Has Sign

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Does an average box of

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Youre a Q/C inspector. You want to

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

2003 Pearson Prentice Hall