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USDA Agricultural

Projections to 2020

United States
Department of
Agriculture
Office of the
Chief Economist

Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee


World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair
Economic Research Service
Farm Service Agency
Foreign Agricultural Service
Agricultural Marketing Service
Office of the Chief Economist
Office of Budget and Program Analysis
Risk Management Agency
Natural Resources Conservation Service
National Institute of Food and Agriculture

World Agricultural
Outlook Board
Long-term
Projections Report
OCE-2011-1
February 2011

Strong global agricultural demand projected


to keep U.S. net farm income historically high
Billion dollars
100

U.S. net farm income

75

50

25

0
1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

USDA Long-term Projections

Order Additional Copies of This Report


Online: Visit www.ntis.gov.
By Phone: Dial 1-800-999-6779. Toll free in the United States and Canada.
Or call 1-703-605-6000.
Ask for USDA Agricultural Projections to 2020 (OCE-2011-1).

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2020. Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural
Outlook Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural
Projections Committee. Long-term Projections Report OCE-2011-1, 100 pp.
Abstract
This report provides projections for the agricultural sector through 2020. Projections cover
agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as
farm income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions about
macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic
or external shocks to global agricultural markets. Provisions of current law are assumed to
remain in effect through the projection period. The projections are one representative scenario
for the agricultural sector for the next decade. The projections in this report were prepared
during October through December 2010, reflecting a composite of model results and judgmentbased analyses.
Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect market adjustments to the supplyand-demand conditions underlying recent price increases for many farm commodities. In
response, global agricultural production increases in 2011, particularly for grains. Production
adjustments are made in the livestock sector during the first several years of the projections in
response to high grain and soybean meal prices in 2011. Longrun developments for global
agriculture reflect a resumption of steady world economic growth following the global recession
and continued demand for biofuels, which combine to support increases in consumption, trade,
and prices. Thus, after near-term declines from 2011 record levels, the value of U.S. agricultural
exports and net farm income each rise through the rest of the decade. U.S. retail food prices
increase faster than the overall rate of inflation rate in 2011 and 2012, reflecting higher food
commodity prices and energy costs. Food prices rise less than the general inflation rate over the
remainder of the projections, largely reflecting production increases in the livestock sector which
limit meat price increases.
Keywords: Projections, crops, livestock, biofuel, ethanol, trade, farm income, food prices,
U.S. Department of Agriculture, USDA

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Washington, D.C. 20250-3812


USDA Long-term Projections

February 2011
i

Contents
Page

A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections ........................................................................ iii


Long-term Projections on the Internet ........................................................................................... iv
Contacts for Long-term Projections ............................................................................................... iv
Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... iv
Introduction and Projections Overview ...........................................................................................1
Key Assumptions and Implications .................................................................................................2
Macroeconomic Assumptions ..........................................................................................................6
Agricultural Trade ..........................................................................................................................19
U.S. Crops ......................................................................................................................................60
U.S. Livestock................................................................................................................................81
U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators:
Farm Income, U.S. Trade Value, Food Prices, and Food Expenditures.................................90
List of Tables ...............................................................................................................................100

Features in this Report


Page
Financial Crisis in the Eurozone: Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports ........................... 9
Macroeconomic Risks in the Projections ............................................................................... 10
Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks ............................................................................................... 23

ii

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections


USDAs long-term agricultural projections presented in this report are a Departmental consensus
on a longrun scenario for the agricultural sector. These projections provide a starting point for
discussion of alternative outcomes for the sector.
The scenario presented in this report is not a USDA forecast about the future. Instead, it is a
conditional, longrun scenario about what would be expected to happen under a continuation of
current farm legislation and specific assumptions about external conditions. Critical long-term
assumptions are made for U.S. and international macroeconomic conditions, U.S. and foreign
agricultural and trade policies, and growth rates of agricultural productivity in the United States
and abroad. The report assumes that there are no domestic or external shocks that would affect
global agricultural supply and demand. Normal weather is assumed. Changes in any of these
assumptions can significantly affect the projections, and actual conditions that emerge will alter
the outcomes.
The report uses as a starting point the short-term projections from the November 2010 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The macroeconomic assumptions were
completed in October 2010.
The projections analysis was conducted by interagency committees in USDA and reflects a
composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. The Economic Research Service had
the lead role in preparing the departmental report. The projections and the report were reviewed
and cleared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, chaired by the World
Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA participants in the projections analysis and review include
the World Agricultural Outlook Board; the Economic Research Service; the Farm Service
Agency; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Agricultural Marketing Service; the Office of the
Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; the Risk Management Agency;
the Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

iii

Long-term Projections on the Internet


USDAs Economic Research Service has a briefing room for long-term projections at:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/projections/
Also, data from the new USDA long-term projections are available electronically at:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1192

Contacts for Long-term Projections


Questions regarding these projections may be directed to:
Paul Westcott, Economic Research Service, Room 5188, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington,
D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5335, e-mail: westcott@ers.usda.gov
Ronald Trostle, Economic Research Service, Room 5190, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington,
D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5280, e-mail: rtrostle@ers.usda.gov
David Stallings, World Agricultural Outlook Board, MS 3812, 1400 Independence Ave., S.W.,
Washington, D.C. 20250-3812, phone: (202) 720-5715, e-mail: dstallings@oce.usda.gov

Acknowledgments
The report coordinators, on behalf of the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, thank
the many analysts in different agencies of USDA for their contributions to the long-term
projections analysis and to the preparation and review of this report.

iv

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2020


Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee
Introduction and Projections Overview
This report provides longrun projections for the agricultural sector through 2020. Major forces and
uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets are discussed, such as prospects for long-term
global economic growth and population trends. Projections cover production and consumption for
agricultural commodities, global agricultural trade and U.S. exports, commodity prices, and
aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.
The projections are a conditional scenario based on specific assumptions about the macroeconomy,
agricultural and trade policies, the weather, and international developments. The report assumes
that there are no domestic or external shocks that would affect global agricultural markets. Normal
weather is assumed. Provisions of current law are assumed to remain in effect through the
projection period, including the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (the 2008 Farm Act),
the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and the Energy Improvement and Extension
Act of 2008. Thus, the projections are not intended to be a forecast of what the future will be, but
instead are a description of what would be expected to happen under these very specific external
circumstances and assumptions. As such, the projections provide a neutral, reference scenario that
can serve as a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could
result under different domestic or international assumptions.
The projections in this report were prepared during October through December 2010 and reflect a
composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. Short-term projections used as a starting
point in this report are from the November 2010 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
report. The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2010.
Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect market adjustments to the supply-anddemand conditions underlying recent high prices for many farm commodities. In response, global
agricultural production increases in 2011, particularly for grains. Production adjustments are made
in the livestock sector during the first several years of the projections in response to high grain and
soybean meal prices in 2011. The high prices underlie record projected levels of U.S. agricultural
exports and U.S. net farm income in 2011.
Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect a resumption of steady world economic
growth following the global recession and continued demand for biofuels, particularly in the
United States and the European Union (EU). These factors combine to support longer run
increases in consumption, trade, and prices for agricultural products. Thus, after near-term
reductions from 2011 records, the value of U.S. agricultural exports and net farm income each rise
through the rest of the decade. U.S. retail food prices increase faster than the general inflation rate
in 2011 and 2012, reflecting higher food commodity prices and energy costs. Food prices rise less
than the overall rate of inflation over the remainder of the projections, largely reflecting production
increases in the livestock sector which limit meat price increases.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Key Assumptions and Implications


Major assumptions underlying the projections and selected implications include:
Economic Growth

U.S. and world economic growth reflect a movement back toward long-run steady growth
in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and economic recession.

Global economic growth is assumed at a 3.4-percent average growth rate for 2011-2020.
Continued high growth rates in emerging market countries, such as China and India, and a
return to strong growth in other developing countries underpin world macroeconomic
gains.

The U.S. economy is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent over the next
decade. With slower growth in the United States than in the world economy, the U.S. share
of global gross domestic product (GDP) falls from over 26 percent currently to less than 25
percent at the end of the projection period. Employment gains are projected to be slow,
with high rates of unemployment lasting for a number of years.

In the longer run, the return to steady global economic growth supports longer term gains
in world food demand, global agricultural trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. Economic
growth in developing countries is especially important because food consumption and feed
use are particularly responsive to income growth in those countries, with movement away
from staple foods and increased diversification of diets.

Population

Stronger global economic growth over the next decade contributes to the continued slowing
of population gains around the world as birth rates decline. Growth in global population is
assumed to average about 1 percent per year over the projection period compared with
average annual rates of 1.7 percent in the 1980s, 1.4 percent in the 1990s, and 1.2 percent
in the last decade.

Population growth rates in most developing countries remain above those in the rest of the
world. As a consequence, the share of world population accounted for by developing
countries increases to 82 percent by 2020, up from 74 percent in 1980 and 77 percent in 1990.

Population gains in developing countries along with increased urbanization and expansion
of the middle class are particularly important for the projected growth in global food
demand. Developing countries populations, in contrast to those of more developed
countries, are dominated by younger population cohorts who consume larger quantities of
food of increasingly diverse types.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

The Value of the U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar is assumed to depreciate somewhat over the next decade. Although there
has been a recent depreciation of the euro due to the sovereign debt problems in the EU, the
longer term depreciation of the dollar relative to the euro and yen is part of an ongoing
global rebalancing of international currency portfolios.

The weaker dollar will remain a facilitating factor in projected gains in U.S. agricultural
exports. Although trade competition will continue to be strong, the United States will
remain competitive in global agricultural markets, with export gains contributing to
increases in cash receipts for U.S. farmers.

Oil Prices

Crude oil prices are assumed to increase over the next decade as global economic activity
improves. Increases are expected to be faster than the general inflation rate, with the
nominal refiner acquisition cost for crude oil imports projected to exceed $110 per barrel
by the end of the projection period.

These increases in crude oil prices raise production costs in the agricultural sector.

U.S. Agricultural Policy

Provisions of current law, particularly the 2008 Farm Act, are assumed to remain in effect
through the projection period.

Under the 2008 Farm Act, the maximum acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve
Program (CRP) was reduced from 39.2 million acres to 32 million acres, beginning on
October 1, 2009. Acreage enrolled in the program has fallen from more than 36 million
acres to about 31.4 million acres and is projected to remain close to its legislated maximum
throughout the projections. This reduction in CRP acreage provides some additional
cropland for potential use in production.

With high prices for many crops, price-dependent farm program benefits have become less
important in overall Government payments to the U.S. agricultural sector. The CRP and fixed
direct payments represent most payments to the sector throughout the projection period.
As a consequence, Government payments have a smaller role and the sector relies on the
market for more of its income.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

U.S. Biofuels

The projections assume that the 45-cents-per-gallon tax credit available to blenders of
ethanol and the 54-cents-per-gallon tariff on imported ethanol used as fuel are in effect
through the projection period. The $1.00-per-gallon tax credit for blending biodiesel,
which had expired at the end of 2009, was not assumed to be available since its retroactive
reinstatement and extension through 2011 occurred after these projections were completed.

Expansion in the U.S. ethanol industry is projected to continue. However, growth is


projected to be slower than the rapid gains during 2005-09, despite some potential to
increase into the E15 (15-percent ethanol blend) market for some vehicles. The projections
reflect the October 2010 approval by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of
E15 for use in model year 2007 and newer passenger vehicles (including cars, sport utility
vehicles, and light pickup trucks), but were completed before the more-recent EPA
announcement of E15 approval for model years 2001-06.

Corn is expected to remain the primary feedstock for U.S. ethanol production during the
projection period, with about 36 percent of total corn use going to ethanol production over
the next decade. Nonetheless, smaller gains for corn-based ethanol are projected, reflecting
only moderate growth in overall gasoline consumption in the United States, limited
potential for further market penetration of ethanol into the E10 (10-percent ethanol blend)
market, constraints in the E15 market, and the small size of the E85 (85-percent ethanol
blend) market. By the end of the projection period, corn-based ethanol production
represents more than 10 percent of annual gasoline consumption.

Biodiesel production in the United States is assumed to increase to 1 billion gallons by


2012. Almost half of this volume is assumed to be from domestic first-use vegetable oils,
with animal fats and recycled vegetable oil accounting for the remainder.

Livestock and Meat Trade

The projections assume continued policies in Russia that build toward self sufficiency in
their poultry and pork sectors.

Beef exports from competitor countries of Argentina, Australia, and Canada increase
slowly as those countries rebuild breeding herds.

The projections were completed before the recent outbreak of food and mouth disease in
South Korea.

International Policy

Trade projections assume that countries comply with existing bilateral and multilateral
agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade. The report incorporates effects of
trade agreements and domestic policies in place in November 2010.

Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to
continue to evolve along their current paths, based on the consensus judgment of USDAs
regional and commodity analysts. In particular, long-term economic and trade reforms in
many developing countries are assumed to continue.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

International Biofuels

Demand for biofuel feedstocks is projected to continue growing in a number of countries.


The largest marketsthe United States, Brazil and the EUwill grow at a slower pace
than in recent years. Continued expansion is largely due to biofuel policies, mainly use
mandates and tax incentives.

The projections assume that 60 percent of the EU 2020 mandate, that renewable fuels
provide 10 percent of the energy used in the transportation sector, is achieved from annual
agricultural crop feedstocks. Biodiesel accounts for 60 percent of total biofuel use in 2020
and ethanol accounts for 40 percent, compared with 69 percent for biodiesel and 31 percent
for ethanol estimated for 2010.

To boost biodiesel production, the EU is projected to increase oilseed production as well


as imports of oilseeds and vegetable oil from countries in the former Soviet Union and
non-EU Europe. EU wheat provides the feedstock for EU ethanol expansion in the early
years but corn used as an ethanol feedstock grows more rapidly toward the end of the
projections.

The EU imports biodiesel from Argentina and ethanol from Brazil, and is the worlds
largest importer of both throughout the projection period. Overall, biofuel imports become
increasingly important in the EU, rising to about one-fourth of total use.

Prices

Prices for major crops are projected to decline in the near term as production globally
responds to current high prices. Nonetheless, after near-term price declines, long-term
growth in global demand for agricultural products, in combination with the continued
presence of U.S. ethanol demand for corn and EU biodiesel demand for vegetable oils,
holds prices for corn, oilseeds, and many other crops at historically high levels.

Adjustments in the U.S. livestock sector to high feed costs continue in the near term,
lowering production of total meat and poultry and raising livestock and meat prices.
Improving net returns provide economic incentives for expansion later in the decade, with
nominal livestock prices rising moderately over most of the rest of the projection period.

Although farm income initially declines from a projected 2011 record, strengthening global
food demand and sustained biofuel demand keep net farm income historically high.

U.S. retail food prices rise faster than the general inflation rate in 2011 and 2012, reflecting
higher food commodity prices, rising energy costs, and improved demand as the economic
recovery continues. Food prices rise less than the overall rate of inflation over the
remainder of the projections, largely reflecting production increases in the livestock sector
which limit meat price increases.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Macroeconomic Assumptions
The United States and much of the developed world are moving to steady growth following the
most serious worldwide economic downturn since the end of World War II. Given the depth and
widespread nature of the recession, the transition has been characterized by slow economic growth
and slow employment gains, and is likely to result in high rates of unemployment lasting a number
of years.
Thus, macroeconomic assumptions underlying USDAs long-term projections reflect this slow
transition back toward longrun sustainable growth in 2011 and beyond. Implicit in this baseline is
the assumption that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and other major central banks around the
world continue to take aggressive action, as needed, to counter the continuing financial problems
lingering from the recession. Even with these actions, evolving situations will affect the recovery
and provide risks for the longer term outlook. (See boxes, Financial Crisis in the Eurozone:
Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports, page 9; and Macroeconomic Risks in the Projections,
page 10.) The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2010.
After averaging 2.9-percent growth between 2001 and 2008, overall global real gross domestic
product (GDP) fell by 2.1 percent in 2009. World economic growth for 2010 is estimated to be
3.3 percent. From 2011 through 2020, world growth is projected to increase at an annual average rate
of 3.5 percent. Most of these economic gains reflect continued high growth rates in emerging market
countries such as China and India and a return to strong growth in other developing countries. While
developed countries share of global real GDP is still more than 60 percent at the end of the projection
period, that is down from 80 percent in 1970 and almost 70 percent in 2007.
Following a contraction of about 2.6 percent in 2009, the U.S. economy is expected to grow by
2.4 to 2.5 percent in 2010 and 2011, 2.8 percent in 2012, and then settle at a longer term rate of
2.6 percent in 2013 and beyond. With U.S. GDP growing more slowly than the world economy
throughout the projections period, the U.S. share of global GDP falls below 25 percent by 2020.

U.S. and world gross domestic product (GDP) growth


Percent
5
World

4
3

United States

2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Agricultural Implications
The return of global economic growth beginning in 2010 and the continuation of population gains
are expected to boost food demand. This is particularly true since world growth is concentrated in
emerging markets and developing countries with high income-related propensities for consumption
of food and agricultural products. In addition, growing biofuel demand will remain an important
factor shaping the projections for world trade, U.S. agricultural exports, and commodity prices.
Also supporting the outlook for U.S. agricultural exports is the cumulative effect of the depreciated
U.S. dollar since 2002 and its continued decline through the projection period. The declining
dollar makes U.S. agricultural exports increasingly competitive in international markets.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

GDP growth for developed countries, European Union, and Japan


Percent
6
Developed countries

European Union

4
2
0
Japan
-2
-4
-6
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Developed economies are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent in 2011-20,
more than half a percentage point lower than the 1970-2008 historical average. Both the European
Union (EU) and Japan experienced more severe recessions than the United States, with prospects
for both countries growing more slowly than the U.S. economy in coming years.

Economic growth rates for the EU remain about 2 percent per year in the projection period,
somewhat less than their historical average. The EU was less aggressive in combating the
impact of the global financial crisis than was the United States. The Eurozone crisis of
2010 further set back growth prospects for the EU (see box, Financial Crisis in the
Eurozone: Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports). Lingering structural rigidities,
particularly inflexible labor laws and a very expensive social security system, impinge on
growth and the EU financial system. Political difficulties also limit the benefits of
economic integration, particularly with continued restrictions on labor mobility between
EU countries and the cumbersome EU Commission decisionmaking process.
Unemployment rates are expected to decline from double-digit rates in the projection
period.

The projections assume economic growth in Japan averages around 1.4 percent per year, a
continuation of the slow growth and deflationary environment that Japan has experienced
since the 1990s. Japan continues to face constraints to economic growth, largely the result
of long-term structural rigidities (such as legal constraints on new business entry), a
difficult political process for economic reform, and a rapidly aging population. Japans
labor market liberalization partly eases these constraints, aiding some productivity growth.
Increasing integration with the other economies of Asia, especially China, will mitigate
some of the growth constraints in the Japanese economy. Nonetheless, while Japan is a
heavily trade-dependent country, its trade-dependent sectors have declined significantly.
The yen has continued to appreciate against the dollar in spite of the interventions of
Japans central bank to moderate the appreciation. Slow growth prospects in Japan relative
to high growth in other major Asian countries suggest that the importance of Japan in the
global economy will diminish throughout the projection period.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Financial Crisis in the Eurozone: Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports


The Eurozone Crisis of 2010 was the result of the evolution of large current account imbalances
between Eurozone countries. The large fiscal debt accumulation in Greece, Ireland, Spain,
Portugal, and Italy became unsustainable. The resulting dramatic increase in the market cost of
credit to those countries precipitated the crisis.
The creation of a European Financial Stabilization Facility to support the sovereign debt of
Eurozone deficit countries put a short-term halt to the threat of default. The facility, largely
funded by Germany, is also based on commitments by the deficit countries to institute austerity
measures to substantially reduce Government deficits. The longer term outcome will depend
largely on whether the programs put in place to address the imbalances in trade and Government
finances are effective.
One potential outcome of the crisis would be a sustained long-term depreciation of the euro against
the dollar and other currencies. In this case, Eurozone products would become more competitive
in world markets. On the other hand, some investment that would have gone to the Eurozone
would instead go to other countries. This investment would strengthen global growth and demand
for agricultural products, particularly in developing economies, and thus benefit U.S. agricultural
exports. On balance, even with near-term appreciation relative to the euro, the U.S. dollar still
depreciates overall and remains relatively low compared with currencies of most of its export
markets. This depreciation facilitates continued strength in U.S. agricultural exports over the
projection period.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Macroeconomic Risks in the Projections


Macroeconomic assumptions behind the projections in this report include a modest recovery in the
U.S. economy, with a return to steady long-term growth and a pickup in job growth in late 2011.
Economic gains in the rest of the developed world, which have been uneven in the early part of the
recovery, are expected to pick up in late 2011. Developing economies overall are now in an
expansion phase starting in China and India (whose economies showed no signs of an overall
recession) joined by much of Latin America and almost all of Asia in 2010. Thus, the overall
world economy is expected to return to near longer term trend growth rates by mid 2011 although,
unlike many previous recovery periods, no sharp short-term bounce back with accelerated growth
is assumed. Nonetheless, even with this return to sustained world economic growth, there has
been a dramatic change in the underlying macroeconomic policy environment and an increased
risk of downside scenarios from multiple sources.
Labor Market Risks in Developed Economies. The potential for a noticeable slowing of world
and U.S. growth in 2011-20 is substantial. Relatively slow growth in the United States and other
developed countries implies continuing high levels of unemployment. The U.S. unemployment
rate is projected to remain persistently high and to stay above 6 percent until 2018-20.
Prolonged weakness in U.S. labor markets would have important implications for trend
productivity and output growth due to both supply side and demand side risks. On the supply side,
relatively high unemployment could substantially curtail growth in the capacity of the U.S.
economy. Larger unemployment would imply substantial risks to labor incomes, potentially
dampening consumption and causing aggregate demand growth to stagnate. Similar risks are
present in the European economies.
Financial Market Risks. There remain notable risks to U.S. and world economic growth because
of continuing problems in financial markets. The potential for a substantial decline in the euro due
to problems with the internal Eurozone structural debt could be confined to European financial
markets or could affect U.S. and other financial markets with uncertain consequences for world
growth.
Additionally, due to increased economic and financial market uncertainty, consumers in developed
economies could decide to add to savings, thereby shrinking consumer spending growth. Such a
reduction in consumer spending could weaken corporate profits and cause a decline in stock
markets, further increasing uncertainty. In this climate, the rise in savings and reduction in
consumer spending could lower trend growth in developed economies and thereby dampen growth
in developing economies.
-- Continued

10

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Macroeconomic Risks in the Projections (Continued)


U.S. Business Confidence Risks. The recovery of business confidence in the United States is a
prerequisite to achieving sustained employment gains and economic growth. Businesses are now
keeping record-high levels of cash and, while they are replenishing inventories and replacing old
equipment, they are generally not starting many new major business projects. For the domestic
economy to have sustained growth and move toward full employment, business confidence needs
to improve so that new business projects can move forward. As a business cycle matures, business
confidence typically rises, leading to job growth and increasing demand for capital as new business
projects are started. Thus, a weaker recovery of business confidence represents a major risk to
domestic GDP growth, employment gains, and consumer spending increases.
U.S. Dollar Risks. If the U.S. economy were to undergo a longer and deeper recession due to
some combination of the factors above, one low-probability outcome could be a weakening of the
U.S. dollar as the default reserve currency in the world. Such an outcome would imply a
substantial decline in the dollars value and a potential decline in U.S. living standards. In turn,
this would lead to lower U.S. demand for raw materials and manufactured goods from developing
countries, lowering their growth as well. For agriculture, implications would depend on how
weaker economic growth and demand gains in the developing economies would balance against
agricultural trade effects of a sharply lower dollar.
Chinas Inflation Risks. China may face a more difficult problem in constraining inflation in the
next decade than in the last, as industrial commodity and wage inflation speed up. Consumer price
inflation went above 3 percent in the fall of 2010, despite a 2 to 3 percent appreciation of the yuan,
a modest tightening of credit, and a Government edict to prevent provincial hoarding of coal and
oil. Bank reserve requirements were raised six times in 2010, and short-term interest rates were
increased as well. However, as inflation in China continued to rise, many analysts suggested that
the increases in bank reserve requirements, interest rates, and the yuan were too modest. A
medium-term risk is that fighting inflation may sharply limit bank credit expansion and thus slow
GDP growth. The yuan may be allowed to appreciate more rapidly than projected to keep Chinese
inflation in check.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

11

GDP growth for developing economies and the former Soviet Union
Percent
9

Developing Asia

6
3
0
-3

Latin America

Africa

Form er Soviet Union

-6
-9
-12
-15
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Economic growth in developing countries is projected to average close to 6 percent annually during
2011-20. These countries were much less affected by the global recession than were the developed
countries. The pattern of developing countries producing and consuming a larger share of world output,
relative to developed countries, strengthens in the projections.

Developing countries will play an increasingly important role in the global economy and growth in
food demand, and will become a more important destination for U.S. agricultural exports. High
income growth, along with high responsiveness of consumption and imports of food and feed, drives
this result. As incomes rise in developing countries, consumers tend to diversify their diets,
increasing their relative consumption of meat, dairy products, fruits, vegetables, and processed foods
(including vegetable oils). These shifts increase import demand for feedstuffs and high-value food
products.

Continued strong growth in China, India, and the rest of Asia make this region an increasingly
important part of the global economy, with developing Asias share of world GDP rising to
22 percent by the end of the projection period. Projected growth for Southeast Asia is 5.2 percent
for the next decade while growth in developing countries of East Asia is projected to be more than
7 percent.

Chinas economic growth has been consistently the strongest in Asia, averaging almost 10 percent
between 2001 and 2010. While some slowing is expected, Chinas growth is expected to average
more than 8 percent over the next decade and will account for almost 12 percent of the world
economy. Indias projected average economic growth of almost 8 percent per year puts it in the top
tier of high-growth countries. Nonetheless, India remains a low-income country, with real
(inflation-adjusted) 2005-based per capita income of $962 in 2010, compared with $2,800 in China.
Continued strong income growth in India and China is expected to bring their real per capita income
to $1,800 and nearly $6,000 by 2020. This continued rapid growth in per capita income is expected
to move a significant number of people out of poverty.

Latin America sustains projected growth of about 4.4 percent per year. An overall improvement in
macroeconomic policies has attracted foreign capital inflows (particularly foreign direct investment
to Chile, Colombia, and Brazil) and sustained growth in the region.

12

Economic growth in the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to average
3.6 percent annually for the next decade as these countries return to sustainable growth after their
shift to more market-oriented economies. Russia and other energy-rich FSU countries also benefit
from relatively high oil prices.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Population growth continues to slow


Percent
3.5

Middle
East

1981-90
3.0

1991-2000

2.5

2001-10
2011-20

2.0
1.5
1.0

Africa
Developing
countries

Latin
Am erica
Asia

World
United
States

Form er
Developed Soviet
countries Union

0.5
0.0
-0.5
Sou rce: U.S. Department of Com merce, U.S. Censu s Bu reau a nd U.S. Department o f
Agriculture, Economic Research Se rvice.

World population growth continues to slow over the next decade, rising about 1 percent per year
for the projection period compared to an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the 1980s.

Developed countries have very low projected rates of population growth, at 0.4 percent
over 2011-20. Projected annual average population growth rates for the United States in
the 0.8 to 0.9 percent range over the period are the highest among developed countries, in
part reflecting large immigration. Japans population is projected to decline by an average
of 0.4 percent over the projection period.

Overall, population in the FSU is projected to decline moderately. Population growth rates in
developing economies are projected to be sharply lower than rates in the 1980s and 1990s, but
remain above those in developed countries and the FSU. As a result, the share of world
population accounted for by developing countries increases to 82 percent by 2020, compared
to 74 percent in 1980.

China and India together account for 37 percent of the worlds population. Chinas
population growth rate slows from 1.5 percent per year in 1981-90 to 0.4 percent in
2011-20. The population growth rate in India, the worlds second most populous nation, is
projected to decline from 2.0 percent to 1.2 percent per year over the same period.

Brazils population growth rate falls from 2.1 percent per year in 1981-90 to 1 percent
annually in 2011-20. Although Sub-Saharan Africas population growth rate declines from
2.9 percent to 2.3 percent per year between the same periods, this region continues to have
the highest population growth rate of any region in the world.

There are a number of countries with declining populations, including Germany, Italy,
Spain, Russia, Ukraine, some other countries in Western and Central Europe, and Japan.
South Africa is projected to have a declining population resulting from the continuing
AIDS epidemic.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

13

U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar continues depreciation 1/


Index values, 2005=100
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Real U. S. agricultural trade-weighted do llar e xchange rat e, using U.S. ag ricultural exp ort weig hts,
base d on 192 co untries.

The U.S. dollar is projected to depreciate moderately through the projection period and thus
continue to facilitate growth in U.S. agricultural exports. Among agricultural products, U.S.
exports of bulk commodities and horticultural products tend to be the most sensitive to movements
in the U.S. dollars value, because they face more global trade competition. The dollar
depreciation is part of a global rebalancing of trade and financial markets in the aftermath of the
global financial crisis and recession.

14

Strong GDP growth in the United States relative to the EU and Japan will tend to mitigate
the continued appreciation of the euro and yen to the U.S. dollar. The immediate effect of
the debt crisis in Greece was a depreciation of the euro relative to the dollar, with the euro
depreciating by about 25 percent between December 2009 and June 2010. In the longer
term, a depreciation of the dollar relative to the euro and yen is likely as part of the global
rebalancing of international currency portfolios.

China initiated a process for appreciating its currency in 2005 after a long period of
maintaining a fixed nominal exchange rate and an undervalued currency. However, that
process was halted in 2008. After nearly two years of maintaining a constant nominal
exchange rate of the yuan to the dollar, the Chinese Central Bank announced in June 2010
that they will allow increased flexibility in the bilateral exchange rate. Since then, there
has been a very modest 2-3 percent nominal appreciation of the yuan. The projections
assume that China allows its real exchange rate to continue to appreciate modestly. The
real appreciation of yuan also leads to some appreciation of other Asian currencies. These
developments will strengthen U.S. agricultural exports to Asian countries.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

U.S. crude oil prices


Dollars per barrel

Refiner acquisition cost,


crude oil imports

110
100
90
80
70
60

Refiner acquisition cost,


adjusted for inflation

50
40
30
20
10
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Crude oil prices are assumed to increase over the projection period as global economic activity
picks up. From 2011 through 2020, crude oil prices are expected to rise somewhat faster than the
general inflation rate. By the end of the projection period, the nominal refiner acquisition cost for
crude oil imports is projected to be around $110 per barrel.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

15

Table 1. U.S. macroeconomic assumptions


Item
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

GDP, billion dollars


Nominal
Real 2005 chained dollars
percent change

14,119
12,881
-2.6

14,574
13,190
2.4

15,118
13,519
2.5

15,758
13,898
2.8

16,492
14,259
2.6

17,293
14,630
2.6

18,133
15,010
2.6

19,013
15,401
2.6

19,937
15,801
2.6

20,905
16,212
2.6

21,921
16,634
2.6

22,985
17,066
2.6

Disposable personal income


Nominal (billion dollars)
percent change
Nominal per capita, dollars
percent change
Real (billion 2005 chained dollars)
percent change
Real per capita, 2005 chained dollars
percent change

11,035
0.7
35,888
-0.1
10,100
0.6
32,848
-0.3

11,344
2.8
36,567
1.9
10,302
2.0
33,209
1.1

11,741
3.5
37,517
2.6
10,539
2.3
33,676
1.4

12,246
4.3
38,792
3.4
10,845
2.9
34,353
2.0

12,834
4.8
40,307
3.9
11,148
2.8
35,013
1.9

13,475
5.0
41,964
4.1
11,460
2.8
35,690
1.9

14,149
5.0
43,694
4.1
11,781
2.8
36,382
1.9

14,856
5.0
45,498
4.1
12,111
2.8
37,091
1.9

15,599
5.0
47,381
4.1
12,450
2.8
37,816
2.0

16,379
5.0
49,346
4.1
12,799
2.8
38,559
2.0

17,198
5.0
51,396
4.2
13,157
2.8
39,320
2.0

18,058
5.0
53,535
4.2
13,526
2.8
40,098
2.0

Consumer spending
Real (billion 2005 chained dollars)
percent change

9,154
-1.2

9,364
2.3

9,589
2.4

9,839
2.6

10,084
2.5

10,337
2.5

10,595
2.5

10,860
2.5

11,131
2.5

11,410
2.5

11,695
2.5

11,987
2.5

Inflation measures
GDP price index, chained, 2005=100
percent change
CPI-U, 1982-84=100
percent change
PPI, finished goods 1982=100
percent change
PPI, crude goods 1982=100
percent change

109.6
2.2
214.5
-0.4
172.5
-2.6
175.2
-30.4

110.5
0.8
217.1
1.2
181.0
4.9
210.3
20.0

111.8
1.2
220.6
1.6
188.2
4.0
218.7
4.0

113.4
1.4
224.8
1.9
192.0
2.0
223.0
2.0

115.7
2.0
230.4
2.5
195.6
1.9
225.3
1.0

118.2
2.2
236.2
2.5
199.3
1.9
227.5
1.0

120.8
2.2
242.1
2.5
203.1
1.9
229.8
1.0

123.5
2.2
248.1
2.5
207.0
1.9
232.1
1.0

126.2
2.2
254.3
2.5
210.9
1.9
234.4
1.0

128.9
2.2
260.7
2.5
214.9
1.9
236.8
1.0

131.8
2.2
267.2
2.5
219.0
1.9
239.1
1.0

134.7
2.2
273.9
2.5
223.1
1.9
241.5
1.0

Crude oil price, $/barrel


EIA refiner acq. cost, imports
percent change
Real 2005 chained dollars
percent change

59.0
-36.2
53.9
-36.8

74.9
26.8
67.8
25.8

80.1
6.9
71.6
5.6

84.0
4.9
74.1
3.5

87.0
3.6
75.2
1.5

90.0
3.4
76.1
1.2

93.2
3.5
77.1
1.3

96.5
3.5
78.1
1.3

99.9
3.5
79.1
1.3

103.4
3.5
80.2
1.3

107.0
3.5
81.2
1.3

110.8
3.6
82.3
1.3

Labor compensation per hour


nonfarm business, 2005=100
percent change

113.5
1.9

116.0
2.2

118.9
2.5

122.0
2.6

125.4
2.8

128.9
2.8

132.5
2.8

136.2
2.8

140.0
2.8

143.9
2.8

147.9
2.8

152.0
2.8

Interest rates, percent


3-month Treasury bills
3-month commercial paper
Bank prime rate
10-year Treasury bonds
Moody's Aaa bond yield index

0.2
0.3
3.3
3.3
5.3

0.4
1.8
4.0
3.5
4.8

2.8
3.0
5.4
5.2
5.4

4.0
4.2
6.8
5.2
5.7

4.6
5.1
7.7
5.6
6.3

4.8
5.3
8.2
5.7
6.2

4.8
5.3
8.2
5.7
6.2

4.8
5.3
8.2
5.7
6.2

4.8
5.3
8.2
5.7
6.2

4.8
5.3
8.2
5.7
6.2

4.8
5.3
8.2
5.7
6.2

4.8
5.3
8.2
5.8
6.2

9.3
130.9
-4.3

9.7
130.3
-0.5

9.3
131.6
1.0

8.5
133.2
1.2

8.0
134.5
1.0

7.5
135.9
1.0

7.0
137.2
1.0

6.5
138.6
1.0

6.2
139.8
0.9

6.0
141.0
0.8

6.0
142.1
0.8

6.0
143.2
0.8

Labor and population


Civilian unemployment
rate, percent
Nonfarm payroll emp., millions
percent change

Total population, millions


307.5
310.2
313.0
315.7
318.4
321.1
323.8
326.5
329.2
331.9
334.6
337.3
percent change
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Domestic macroeconomic assumptions w ere completed in October 2010. CPI-U is the consumer price index for all urban consumers. PPI is the producer
price index. EIA is the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.

16

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 2. Global real GDP grow th assumptions

Region/country

Share of Per capita


w orld GDP income,
GDP, 2009 2007-2009
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Percent
100.0
73.1

2005
dollars
7,164
5,506

-2.1
-1.9

3.3
3.6

3.2
3.5

3.5
3.8

14,128
1,248
12,881

29.5
2.6
26.9

41,436
37,262
41,890

-2.6
-2.5
-2.6

2.5
3.5
2.4

2.6
3.8
2.5

2.9
3.5
2.8

2.7
3.3
2.6

3,085
787
318
1,980
221
1,072
635

6.3
1.7
0.7
4.0
0.4
2.3
1.3

5,281
7,075
3,911
5,056
5,411
5,656
4,176

-2.0
-6.5
-0.5
-0.2
0.9
-0.2
-0.7

4.6
4.5
1.9
5.0
4.5
6.5
2.6

4.7
4.7
3.4
4.9
4.3
5.4
4.2

4.6
4.3
4.5
4.8
4.0
5.2
4.3

14,775
13,936
839

31.1
29.4
1.7

27,169
27,340
24,601

-4.1
-4.2
-1.8

1.0
0.7
1.5

1.6
1.9
2.2

Former Soviet Union


Russia
Ukraine
Other

1,178
896
85
197

2.5
1.9
0.2
0.4

4,267
6,401
1,859
2,179

-7.1
-7.9
-15.1
1.0

4.1
4.0
3.6
4.9

Asia and Oceania


East Asia
China
Hong Kong
Japan
South Korea
Taiw an
Southeast Asia
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
South Asia
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
Oceania
Australia
New Zealand

12,493
9,139
3,385
196
4,203
956
383
1,131
371
156
124
207
69
1,308
68
1,043
141
915
779
104

25.2
18.5
6.4
0.4
9.0
1.9
0.8
2.3
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.1
2.5
0.1
2.0
0.3
1.9
1.6
0.2

3,342
5,962
2,557
27,848
33,074
19,702
16,651
1,887
1,546
5,610
1,267
3,111
775
832
444
902
779
26,337
36,659
24,651

1.1
0.3
8.7
-2.8
-5.3
0.2
-1.9
1.1
4.5
-1.7
0.9
-2.3
5.3
7.1
5.9
7.6
3.7
1.1
1.3
-0.5

1,542
223
85
350
367
517

3.1
0.5
0.2
0.7
0.8
1.0

5,420
2,932
2,920
13,828
4,775
6,687

-1.0
-2.2
5.6
0.6
-4.7
0.1

World
Less United States

Bil. 2005
dollars
48,350
35,469

Average
2009

2014 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020

Percent change
3.6
3.6
3.9
3.9

2.7
2.5

2.4
2.7

3.4
3.7

2.6
3.0
2.6

3.4
2.9
3.4

1.7
2.0
1.6

2.7
3.2
2.6

4.6
4.2
4.5
4.7
3.8
5.1
4.4

4.4
4.1
4.4
4.5
3.8
4.8
4.3

3.1
3.5
3.1
3.0
4.4
2.6
3.3

3.0
1.6
2.7
3.6
4.1
3.4
3.8

4.4
4.0
4.1
4.5
3.8
4.7
4.3

2.0
2.0
2.3

2.2
2.2
2.5

2.2
2.2
2.6

2.1
2.1
1.8

1.2
1.2
1.8

2.1
2.1
2.3

4.6
4.3
5.8
5.1

4.2
3.8
6.9
4.7

4.0
3.8
5.7
4.2

3.9
3.5
5.4
4.9

-4.0
-3.6
-7.7
-3.8

5.3
4.8
4.5
8.3

3.6
3.4
5.1
4.0

6.2
6.3
10.8
5.6
3.0
5.3
6.6
6.1
6.0
6.7
5.0
5.0
6.5
7.5
5.5
8.1
4.1
2.9
2.9
2.5

5.0
4.7
8.6
5.1
1.4
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.3
5.1
5.3
5.3
7.0
7.7
6.0
8.2
4.4
3.2
3.3
2.3

5.2
5.0
8.6
5.6
1.6
4.0
5.9
5.8
6.5
5.8
5.0
5.5
7.2
7.8
6.3
8.4
4.6
3.3
3.4
3.1

5.3
5.1
8.6
5.3
1.8
4.1
5.0
5.6
6.3
5.2
4.8
5.3
6.9
7.7
6.1
8.2
4.9
3.4
3.5
3.1

5.4
5.3
8.8
4.8
1.9
4.0
4.5
5.4
6.0
5.0
4.7
5.0
6.4
7.5
6.1
8.0
4.4
3.3
3.3
2.9

3.7
3.4
10.5
4.5
1.2
6.2
6.5
5.2
4.4
7.2
3.1
4.6
7.4
5.2
4.8
5.5
4.0
3.5
3.6
2.9

4.2
4.0
9.9
4.0
0.8
4.0
3.5
4.7
5.2
4.4
4.4
4.1
7.2
7.0
5.7
7.5
5.2
2.9
3.0
2.5

5.1
4.9
8.3
4.4
1.4
3.8
4.2
5.2
5.7
5.0
4.7
4.8
6.9
7.4
5.9
7.9
4.3
3.2
3.2
2.7

4.1
3.2
7.5
3.2
5.7
3.4

5.0
5.2
7.9
4.5
5.0
4.7

5.0
4.4
7.3
5.2
4.9
4.9

4.9
4.3
6.9
5.3
4.8
4.6

4.7
4.4
6.0
4.9
4.5
4.5

3.6
2.6
9.5
2.6
3.6
4.8

4.0
5.1
11.9
3.6
3.6
4.3

4.4
4.1
6.1
4.3
4.5
4.3

Africa
1,149
2.3
1,170
2.2
4.6
5.2
North Africa
381
0.8
2,366
3.4
4.6
4.8
Algeria
111
0.2
3,246
2.0
4.0
3.5
Egypt
125
0.2
1,590
4.7
5.2
5.8
Morocco
65
0.1
7,361
4.9
3.8
4.8
Tunisia
34
0.1
2,065
3.1
4.2
4.6
Sub-Saharan Africa
767
1.5
935
1.6
4.7
5.4
South Africa
248
0.5
5,063
-1.8
3.1
3.5
Other Sub-Saharan Africa
519
1.0
673
3.2
5.5
6.3
International macroeconomic assumptions w ere based on information available in July 2010.

5.0
4.7
3.6
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.2
3.9
5.8

5.0
4.4
3.6
4.2
5.1
5.9
5.2
3.8
5.8

5.0
4.3
3.6
4.0
5.0
5.5
5.3
4.2
5.8

2.2
3.5
1.7
4.5
2.4
4.8
1.6
1.8
1.5

4.6
4.6
3.9
5.0
4.7
4.6
4.7
3.2
5.4

4.8
4.0
3.0
4.3
4.5
4.9
5.2
4.4
5.5

North America
Canada
United States
Latin America
Mexico
Caribbean & Central America
South America
Argentina
Brazil
Other
Europe
European Union-27
Other Europe

Middle East
Iran
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Other

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

17

Table 3. Population grow th assumptions


Population
in 2009

Average
2009

2010

2011

2012

6,749
6,442

1.1
1.1

1.1
1.1

1.1
1.1

1.1
1.1

1.1
1.1

1.1
1.1

1.4
1.4

1.2
1.2

1.0
1.0

North America
Canada
United States

341
33
307

0.9
0.8
0.9

0.9
0.8
0.9

0.9
0.8
0.9

0.9
0.8
0.9

0.9
0.8
0.9

0.8
0.8
0.9

1.2
1.1
1.2

0.9
0.8
0.9

0.8
0.8
0.8

Latin America
Mexico
Caribbean & Central America
South America
Argentina
Brazil
Other

584
111
81
392
41
199
152

1.2
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.3

1.2
1.1
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.3

1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.2

1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.2

1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.2

1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.2

1.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.8

1.3
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.4

1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.1

Europe
European Union-27
Other Europe

544
510
34

0.2
0.2
0.1

0.2
0.2
0.1

0.2
0.2
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.0

0.2
0.3
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.3

0.1
0.1
0.0

Former Soviet Union


Russia
Ukraine
Other

276
140
46
90

-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
0.7

-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
0.7

-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
0.7

-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
0.7

-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
0.7

-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
0.7

0.0
-0.1
-0.5
0.6

-0.2
-0.5
-0.8
0.6

-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
0.7

3,738
1,533
1,324
7
127
49
23
600
240
28
98
67
89
1,571
154
1,157
181
35
21
4

1.0
0.4
0.5
0.5
-0.2
0.3
0.2
1.3
1.2
1.7
2.0
0.7
1.2
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.0

1.0
0.4
0.5
0.5
-0.2
0.3
0.2
1.3
1.1
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.2
0.9

1.0
0.4
0.5
0.5
-0.3
0.2
0.2
1.2
1.1
1.6
1.9
0.6
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.2
0.9

1.0
0.4
0.5
0.4
-0.3
0.2
0.2
1.2
1.1
1.6
1.9
0.6
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.6
1.3
1.1
0.9

0.9
0.4
0.5
0.4
-0.3
0.2
0.2
1.2
1.0
1.5
1.9
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.1
0.9

0.9
0.4
0.5
0.4
-0.4
0.2
0.1
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.8
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.1
0.8

1.4
0.9
1.0
1.6
0.3
0.9
0.9
1.8
1.6
2.6
2.2
1.2
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.8
2.5
1.4
1.2
1.1

1.1
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.4
0.4
1.4
1.3
2.0
2.1
0.8
1.2
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.4
1.2
1.1

0.9
0.3
0.4
0.3
-0.4
0.1
0.1
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.8
0.5
1.0
1.3
1.6
1.2
1.5
1.2
1.1
0.8

284
76
29
25
77
77

1.8
1.3
2.6
1.7
1.3
2.4

1.7
1.3
2.5
1.6
1.3
2.3

1.6
1.3
2.5
1.6
1.3
2.1

1.5
1.3
2.4
1.5
1.2
1.5

1.4
1.2
2.3
1.5
1.2
1.3

1.5
1.2
2.3
1.5
1.1
1.7

2.2
1.7
2.3
2.9
1.8
3.1

1.9
1.1
2.7
1.9
1.5
2.8

1.5
1.2
2.2
1.5
1.1
1.8

Africa
982
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.5
2.4
North Africa
161
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.7
Algeria
34
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.9
1.3
Egypt
79
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.7
2.1
Morocco
31
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.1
2.3
Tunisia
10
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.6
1.2
Sub-Saharan Africa
820
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.5
South Africa
49
0.6
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
1.6
0.9
Other Sub-Saharan Africa
771
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.6
1/ Totals for the w orld and w orld less United States include countries not otherw ise listed in the table.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
The population assumptions w ere completed in July 2010 based on the June 2010 update from the U.S. Census Bureau.

2.2
1.5
1.1
1.8
1.8
1.0
2.3
-0.1
2.5

Region/country

Millions
World1
Less United States

Asia and Oceania


East Asia
China
Hong Kong
Japan
South Korea
Taiw an
Southeast Asia
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
South Asia
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
Oceania
Australia
New Zealand
Middle East
Iran
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Other

18

2013

2014 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020

Percent change

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Agricultural Trade
Renewed economic growth following the global recession began in 2010. During the 2011-2020
projection period, income growth is projected to continue and to be slightly above the historical
average long-term rate during the last half of the period. This growth provides a foundation for
gains in world demand and trade for agricultural products. Consequently, agricultural product
prices are projected to remain historically high.
Historical Background for Trade Projections
Since the beginning of 2002, fluctuations in production, trade, and stocks of agricultural
commodities have been unusually large, and have been contributing factors to wide price
fluctuations. Between January 2002 and June 2008, an index of monthly-average world prices of
wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans rose 226 percent and then declined 40 percent in the following 6
months. By June 2010, the index had fallen another 11 percent. The price index then rose 55
percent by December 2010 and stood at about 172 percent above the January 2002 level, although
still 17 percent below the June 2008 peak. The 55-percent increase between June and December
2010 raised concerns about another major food-commodity price spike as in 2007-08.

Monthly average crop prices 1/


Index values: January 2002 = 100
350

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1/ ERS calculations based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) average monthly world price
quotes for wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice; aggregated by IMFs fixed historical exports weights.

The main factors contributing to this recent increase in staple food prices was a series of weather
events, beginning with a severe drought in Russia and parts of Ukraine and Kazakhstan that
reduced production of all crops, but particularly wheat. In late summer 2010, yield prospects for
U.S. corn declined due to high temperatures during pollination. About the same time, rain on the
nearly mature wheat crops in Canada and northwestern Europe reduced the quality of much of the
crop to feed-grade wheat. Continued drought in the former Soviet Union significantly reduced
winter wheat plantings. Since November 2010, drought and periodic high temperatures associated
with a La Nia weather pattern have reduced prospects for the corn and soybean crops in central
Argentina. Dry fall and winter weather also affected the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop in the
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

19

western Great Plains. Additionally, rains in Australia in late 2010-early 2011 downgraded much
of the Australian wheat crop to feed quality, further reducing global supplies of food-quality
wheat.
Other factors contributing to the recent rise in prices include resurgent global economic growth
and increasing energy prices. The run-up in crop prices during the last half of 2010 is expected to
stimulate increased plantings and more intensive use of production inputs in 2011. Assuming
average weather in major producing regions in 2011, global production and world stocks of grains
and oilseeds are projected to increase. However, even with the projected increases in world crop
production and stocks, world market prices are expected to remain well above historical levels for
the next decade.
Trade Projections Overview
Developing countries are the main source of growth in world agricultural demand and trade. Food
consumption and feed use are particularly responsive to income growth in developing countries,
with movement away from staple and/or traditional foods and toward more diversified diets.
Agricultural demand in developing countries is further reinforced by population growth rates that
are nearly twice those of developed countries.
In particular, Africa and the Middle East as a combined region is projected to have some of the
strongest growth in food demand and agricultural trade over the coming decade. Both poultry
imports and beef imports have their largest increases in the countries of Africa and the Middle
East. With these projected gains, in 2020 the region accounts for about 45 percent of poultry
imports and 20 percent of beef imports by the major importers of the world. Strong policy support
for domestically produced meat also motivates growth in feed-grain imports, especially where land
constraints or agroclimatic conditions limit an expansion of domestic crop production. As a result,
the region accounts for about 35 percent of the projected growth in world coarse grain imports
over the next 10 years. Strong import growth by Africa and the Middle East over the projection
period also accounts for 58 percent of the increase in wheat imports, 35 percent of the growth in
rice imports, and 27 percent of the rise in soybean oil trade.

General International Assumptions


Trade projections to 2020 are founded on assumptions concerning trends in foreign area, yields,
and use and on the assumption that countries comply with existing bilateral and multilateral
agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade. The projections incorporate the effects of
trade agreements and domestic policies in place or authorized by November 2010. International
macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2010.
Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to continue to
evolve along their current paths, based on the consensus judgment of USDAs analysts. In
particular, long-term economic and trade reforms in many developing countries are assumed to
continue. Similarly, the development and use of technology and changes in consumer preferences
are assumed to continue evolving based on past performance and analysts judgments regarding
future developments.

20

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Mexico is projected to be another large growth market for meat imports. Large increases in
Mexican meat demand provide incentives to expand livestock production as well as to import more
meat. Imports of beef, pork, and poultry each rise by 50 percent or more.
Agricultural prices are projected to remain above pre-2006 levels during the coming decade as a
result of increasing world demand for grains, oilseeds, and livestock products; a devaluation of the
U.S. dollar; continuing high energy prices; and some further growth in biofuels production.
Prices for vegetable oils are projected to rise relative to prices for protein meals. Oilseed prices
rise slightly more than grain prices, and meat prices rise relative to the costs of feedstuffs, both for
protein meals and grains.
World agricultural production rises in response to high prices and technology enhancements.
However, a number of factors are expected to slow production growth in the future. Many
countries have a limited ability to expand planted area. And, in many regions, the expansion that
does occur takes place on land with lower productive capacity. The growth rate in world average
crop yields has been slowing for nearly two decades, to some extent as a result of reduced research
and development funding. Water constraints in some countries are impeding the expansion in
irrigation. Where irrigation water is pumped from deep wells, the energy cost of pumping is
projected to continue to increase. Other costs of production such as fertilizers and chemicals are
also likely to increase.
Traditional exporters of a wide range of agricultural commodities, such as Argentina, Australia,
Canada, the European Union (EU), and the United States, remain important in global trade in the
coming decade. But countries that are making significant investments in their agricultural sectors
and increasingly pursuing policies to encourage agricultural production, including Brazil, Russia,
Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, are expected to have an increasing presence in export markets for basic
agricultural commodities.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

21

Global trade: Wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans and soybean products
Million metric tons
225

200

Soybeans and soybean products 1/

175
150
125

Wheat

Coarse grains

100
75
50
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Soybeans and soybean meal in soybean-equivalent units.

Global trade in soybeans and soybean products has risen rapidly since the early 1990s, and has
surpassed not only wheatthe traditional leader in agricultural commodity tradebut also total
coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, rye, oats, millet, and mixed grains). Continued strong
growth in global demand for vegetable oil and protein meal, particularly in China and other Asian
countries, is expected to maintain soybean and soybean-product trade well above wheat and coarse
grains trade throughout the next decade.

22

In most countries, the projected growth in total harvested area of all crops rises less than a
half-percent per year. Area expands more rapidly in countries with a reserve of available
land and policies that enable farmers to respond to higher prices. Such countries include
Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, and some other countries in South America and Eastern
Europe. About two-thirds of the projected growth in global production is derived from
rising yields. However, growth in crop yields has slowed during the last several decades
and is projected to continue doing so.

The market impact of slower crop yield growth is partially offset by slower growth in
world population. Nonetheless, increasing population is a significant factor driving overall
growth in demand for agricultural products. Additionally, rising per capita income in many
countries supplements population gains in the demand for vegetable oils, meats,
horticultural products, and coarse grains. World per capita use of vegetable oils is
projected to rise 15 percent over the next 10 years, compared with 9 percent for meat and 5
percent for total coarse grains. Per capita use is projected to be flat for wheat and to
decline nearly 2 percent for rice.

Wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds, and other crops compete for limited cropland. Higher
prices for vegetable oils, as a result of increased demand for food use, biodiesel production,
and other industrial uses, are bringing previously uncropped land in Brazil, Argentina,
Indonesia, and Malaysia into soybean and palm oil production.

In the coming decade, overall gains in global grain trade come from a broad range of
countries, but particularly from countries in Africa and the Middle East.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks


The demand for biofuel feedstocks is projected to continue growing in a number of countries,
although at a slower pace than in recent years. Expansion continues to depend on policy support,
mainly tax incentives and use mandates which is motivated by environmental concerns and a goal
to reduce energy dependence.
Six countries and regions (United States, Brazil, European Union (EU), Argentina, Canada, and
China) accounted for 87 percent of world biodiesel production and 98 percent of ethanol
production in 2009. Over the next 10 years, production in these countries is projected to rise 20
percent for biodiesel and nearly 25 percent for ethanol.
Country Assumptions
EU. The EU is the worlds largest importer of both ethanol and biodiesel throughout the
projection period. Two key pieces of legislation impacting the biofuel market are the Renewable
Energy Directive and the amended Fuel Quality Directive that require by 2020 at least 10 percent
of the energy used for transportation be from renewable sources and a 6-percent cut in greenhouse
gas emissions by fuel suppliers. To boost biodiesel production, the EU increases its internal
oilseed production and its imports of oilseeds and vegetable oil, mainly from Ukraine and Russia.
Biodiesel production increases 22 percent by 2020. During the same period, ethanol production is
projected to increase more than 40 percent. Internally produced wheat provides the growth for
ethanol in the early years but corn used as a feedstock grows more rapidly toward the end of the
projections. Ethanols share of total biofuel use grows from 31 percent to about 40 percent.
Ethanol imports rise to nearly one-third of domestic use by 2020. Nevertheless, in 2020 only 60
percent of the EUs mandate is achieved from annual-crop feedstocks.
Brazil. Sugarcane-based ethanol production is projected to rise 45 percent during the coming
decade and a growing share of ethanol production is exported in response to demand from Europe
and the United States. The rate of growth in soybean-oil-based biodiesel production is faster than
for sugarcane-based ethanol, although rising from a much smaller base. However, most of the
biodiesel is used domestically.
Canada. Ethanol production is projected to increase 17 percent, with corn imports accounting for
an increasing share of the feedstock. Biodiesel production climbs 30 percent, most of it using
rapeseed (canola) oil as a feedstock. Some of the rapeseed-meal byproduct is exported to the
United States.
Argentina. Argentinas production of biodiesel is assumed to expand 16 percent during the
projection period. Although some of the biodiesel is used to meet a mandated increase in the
domestic blend rate, exports continue to rise and the country continues to be the worlds largest
biodiesel exporter. Argentinas ethanol production increases faster, but from a small base.
China. About 4 million tons of corn were used to produce fuel ethanol in 2010. China has
implemented policies to limit the expansion of grain-based ethanol production for transportation
fuel use, and is now emphasizing the use of nongrain feedstocks such as cassava.
Non-EU Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU). This region is assumed to respond to the
EUs increasing demand for biodiesel by expanding rapeseed production. In the FSU, rapeseed
production more than doubles during the projections. Some of the production gains are destined
for export to the EU, either as rapeseed oil or as rapeseed for crushing in the EU.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

23

Global coarse grain trade


Million metric tons

140

Other 1/
Corn

120
100

Barley
Sorghum

80
60
40
20
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Rye, oats, millet, and mixed grains.

World coarse grain trade expands 25 million metric tons (21 percent) from 2011 to 2020. The
share of global coarse grain production used as animal feed trended downward from 66 percent a
decade ago to about 60 percent in 2010, and is projected to remain just below 60 percent during the
coming decade. Industrial uses, such as starch, ethanol, and malt production, are much smaller
than feed use but are increasing more than twice as fast.

24

Corn is the dominant feed grain traded in international markets. Corns share of total world
coarse grain trade continues to rise slowly and averages 78 percent through the projection
period. Barley has the next largest share (15 percent), followed by sorghum (5 percent).
The trade share of the other coarse grains, mostly oats and rye, continues declining slowly
to about 2 percent by 2020.

Corns increasing share of world production and trade is attributable to yield growth that is
more rapid than for other grains, to new varieties that enable it to be competitive in a wider
range of climatic regions, and to its preferred qualities for feed, biofuels, and other
industrial uses.

Commercialization of livestock feeding has been a driving force behind the growing
dominance of corn in international feed grain markets. Hogs and ruminants, such as cattle
and sheep, are capable of digesting a broad range of feedstuffs, making demand relatively
price-sensitive across alternate feed sources. However, as global pork and poultry
production becomes increasingly commercialized, higher quality feeds are used, boosting
the demand for corn and soybean meal.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Global coarse grain imports


Million metric tons

150
Other
120

EU 1/
Africa & M. East

90

China & HK
Mexico

60

Latin America
30

FSU & OE 2/
East Asia

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Excludes intra-EU trade.


2/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

Growth in coarse grain imports is strongly linked to expansion of livestock production in regions
unable to meet their own feed needs. Key growth markets include North Africa and the Middle
East, China, Mexico, and Southeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are large but mature markets for
coarse grain imports.

Coarse grain imports by Africa and the Middle East did not decline during the recent global
economic slowdown. The region accounts for more than 34 percent of growth in world
trade through 2020 as rising populations and increasing incomes sustain strong demand
growth for animal products. In Egypt, Government policy has shifted toward allowing
more poultry meat imports. Still, poultry production is projected to increase, boosting corn
imports 14 percent to more than 6 million tons.

Mexicos corn imports are projected to rise from 9 million tons in 2011/12 to more than 14
million in 2020/21. Mexicos sorghum imports increase by one-third to more than 3.7 million
tons, but do not surpass the 2000 record. Altogether, the growth in Mexicos coarse grain
imports represents almost 25 percent of the increase in global coarse grain trade. This reflects
increased demand for meat in Mexican diets that stimulates an expansion in meat production
as well as increased meat imports.

In East Asia (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong), environmental constraints on
expanding livestock production and increasing imports of selected meat cuts contribute to
very little growth in coarse grain imports.

Southeast Asian corn imports rise nearly 1 million tons (29 percent) by 2020 as increased
demand for livestock products exceeds the capacity to grow more feed grains.

China is projected to become a net importer of 8 million tons of corn by the end of the
projections as imports grow slowly while exports remain small. Chinas strengthening
domestic demand for corn is driven by its expanding livestock and industrial sectors. The
increase in Chinas imports account for one-third of the growth in world corn trade.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

25

Global corn exports


Million metric tons

120
Other
100

EU 1/
FSU 2/

80

China
Brazil

60

A rgentina
40

United States

20
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Excludes intra-EU trade.


2/ Former Soviet Union.

U.S. corn exports are projected to grow over the next decade and approach record levels by 2020.
However, large world supplies of feed-quality wheat compete with U.S. corn exports at the
beginning of the projection period. The U.S. share of world corn trade declines slowly from an
average of nearly 60 percent during the last half decade to less than 53 percent by 2020 as exports
rise from the FSU, Brazil, the EU, and Argentina.

26

Brazils corn exports have been large during the last few years as Brazil has targeted the EUs
demand for grain that has not been genetically modified (GM). However, this marketing
situation has diminished as Brazil continues to expand production of GM corn varieties. Also,
strong growth in demand for corn in Brazils livestock and poultry sectors and the profitability
of growing soybeans limit the countrys production and exports of corn.

Argentina, with a small domestic market, remains the worlds second-largest corn exporter.
Due to continued quantitative controls on exports, corn area is expected to stagnate.

In the EU, increases in area and yields enable it to increase corn production. Although more
corn is allocated to ethanol production, exports more than double during the projections. The
Eastern EU countries have a transportation advantage to parts of North Africa and the Middle
East. Exports from other European countries are also projected to rise.

Corn exports from the FSU, mostly Ukraine, rise more than 80 percent to 11 million tons by
2020. Favorable resource endowments, increasing economic openness, wider use of hybrid
seed, and greater investment in agriculture stimulate corn production in these countries.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Global barley imports


Million metric tons

Other

20

Other N. Africa & M. East


15

Saudi Arabia
China

10
FSU & OE 1/
Latin America 2/

Japan
0
1990

United States
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
2/ Includes Mexico.

Global barley trade expands 4 million tons (24 percent) during the projection period. Rising
demand for both malting and feed barley underpin the increased trade.

Feed barley imports by North African and Middle Eastern countries grow steadily over the
next decade. In the mid-1990s, corn overtook barley as the principal coarse grain imported
by these countries, due mainly to rising poultry production. This pattern is expected to
continue through the projection period. However, the North Africa and Middle East region
is expected to remain the worlds largest barley-importing area. The region is projected to
account for 65 percent of the growth in world imports during the coming decade, and for 64
percent of total world imports in 2020.

Saudi Arabiathe worlds foremost barley-importing countryaccounts for over 40


percent of world barley trade through the coming decade. Saudi Arabias barley imports
are used primarily as feed for sheep, goats, and camels.

Iran is another Middle East country whose barley imports are projected to increase rapidly.
Although the total imports by other countries in the North Africa and Middle East region
are projected to grow more slowly, they still account for about a third of the increase in
world barley trade.

The international market for malting barley is boosted by strong growth in beer demand in
some developing countries, most notably in Chinathe worlds largest malting-barley
importer. Chinas beer demand is rising steadily due to income and population growth.
Expansion in Chinas brewing capacity is being aided by foreign investment. Chinas
domestic malting barley production is increasing, but imports also rise during the
projection period. Australia and Canada are Chinas main sources of malting barley
imports.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

27

Global barley exports


Million metric tons

20

Other

15

FSU 1/

10

EU 2/

Canada

0
1990

Australia
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

Historically, global barley exports have originated primarily from Australia, the EU, and Canada.
However, Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, Russia have emerged as important competitors in
international feed-barley markets and remain so throughout the projection period.

28

The FSU continues to be a major barley exporter throughout the coming decade with
annual exports around 8 million tons. Ukraine became the worlds largest barley exporter
in 2009 and is projected to remain so throughout the projection period. Russias barley
exports also increased in the 2 years prior to the 2010 drought. Together, their share of
world barley trade has been over 50 percent in some recent years. The drought-induced
sharp drop in FSU production in 2010 reflects the variability of production and exports that
can be expected in the FSU. However, assuming normal weather, exports are projected to
recover over the next few years and then trend slowly upward. FSU exports are projected
to rise 2.8 million tons by 2020 and to account for 70 percent of the increase in world
exports.

Australias barley exports are projected to rise slowly, and the country is expected to
maintain its role as the worlds third-largest exporter.

EU barley exports are projected to climb modestly during the projection period, but remain
well below the levels of the late 1990s.

Malting barley commands a substantial price premium over feed barley. This quality
premium is expected to influence planting decisions in Canada and Australia. In both
countries, malting barleys share of total barley area is expected to rise during the
projection period. Canadas area planted to barley continues to decline gradually as canola
remains more profitable.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Global sorghum imports


Million metric tons

Other
10

Sub-Saharan Africa
Mexico

Japan

6
4
2
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

World sorghum trade projected to trend upward from about 6.5 million tons to 7.3 million tons by
2020. Sorghum trade is driven mostly by U.S. exports to Mexico and Japan.

Mexicos sorghum imports are projected to increase about 1 million tons to 3.7 million tons by
2020. Many Mexican livestock producers have a slight preference for feeding sorghum, while
U.S. livestock feeders increasingly prefer corn, thus facilitating U.S. sorghum shipments to
Mexico. Mexico generally accounts for about half of world sorghum imports.

Sorghum imports by Japan, the worlds second-largest importer, have trended slowly
downward during the past decade. After a small rebound in the last 2 years, imports are
projected to renew the downward trend. Slow growth in imports by Sub-Saharan Africa
offsets declining imports by Japan.

EU imports of sorghum are projected to be modest as it normally imports only small quantities
of sorghum as part of the Spain-Portugal Accession Agreement.

The United States is projected to remain the largest exporter of sorghum. However, during the
last decade, U.S. sorghum acreage and production have declined because of lower net returns
compared with corn and soybeans. As a result, exportable supplies have generally tightened.
Nonetheless, U.S. sorghum exports are projected to gradually recover, but remain slightly
below historical highs. The U.S. share of world sorghum trade also recovers but remains well
below that of the last decade.

Sorghum exports by Argentina, the worlds second-largest exporter, and Australia have risen
sharply over the last several years. Both countries are expected to continue being prominent
exporters during the coming decade although exports from both countries remain relatively
flat. Argentina and Australia retain a larger share of world trade than during the previous
decade. The primary sorghum markets for Argentina are Japan, Chile, and Europe.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

29

Global wheat imports


Million metric tons

150
Other
125

Other Africa & M. East

100

Egypt
NAFTA

75

Latin America
50

FSU & OE 1/

25
0
1990

EU 2/
East Asia
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

World wheat trade (including flour) expands by 20 million tons (15 percent) between 2011 and
2020 to nearly 152 million tons. Growth in wheat imports is concentrated in those developing
countries where income and population gains drive increases in demand. The largest growth
markets include Sub-Saharan Africa, Egypt, Indonesia, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and other countries
in the Africa and Middle East region.

30

In many developing countries, almost no change in per capita wheat consumption is


expected, but imports are projected to expand modestly because of population growth and
limited potential to expand production. Rising per capita consumption of wheat in
Indonesia, Vietnam, and some other Asian countries, reflects a dietary shift from rice as
incomes rise. Nonetheless, overall global per capita wheat consumption is projected to
decline slightly during the coming decade.

Egypt maintains its position as the worlds largest wheat importing country, as its imports
climb to more than 12 million tons. Imports by the EU, Algeria, Brazil, and Indonesia are
each projected to exceed 6 million tons by 2020.

Imports by countries in Africa and the Middle East rise 11.6 million tons and account for
nearly 60 percent of the total increase in world wheat trade. Saudi Arabia has adopted a
policy to phase out wheat production by 2016 because of water scarcity concerns, and
imports are projected to rise to more than 3 million tons by 2020.

Chinas imports remain small as per capita consumption of wheat is expected to continue to
decline.

EU wheat used to produce ethanol is projected to continue rising rapidly during the first
half of the projection period, especially in the United Kingdom.

Abundant quantities of feed quality wheat in a number of countries enable wheat to


compete effectively with corn for feed use in the early years of the projection period.
Europe is expected to continue to account for nearly half of global wheat feeding.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Global wheat exports


Million metric tons

150
Other
125
FSU & OE 1/
100

EU 2/

75

Australia

50

Argentina
Canada

25
0
1990

United States
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

The traditional five largest wheat exporters (the United States, Australia, the EU, Argentina, and
Canada) are projected to account for almost 60 percent of world trade in 2020, compared with 70
percent during the last decade. This decrease in share is mostly due to increased exports from the
Black Sea area. U.S. wheat exports are projected to account for less than 16 percent of global
wheat trade at the end of the projection period, down from about 22 percent in the past 5 years.
Although world wheat stocks are projected to continue increasing from their 2008 low during the
next several years, prices are projected to remain above their pre-2006 average levels.

Argentina is the only traditional exporter whose market share is not projected to decline.
The shares of world wheat exports are projected to increase for Russia, Ukraine,
Kazakhstan, and China, as well as for Argentina.

Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan have become significant wheat exporters in recent years.
Low costs of production, new investments in agriculture production and marketing
infrastructure, and generally favorable weather between 2001 and 2009 enabled their
combined share of global wheat trade to rise to 36 percent in the 2 years before the 2010
drought caused exports to drop sharply. Exports from the former Soviet Union are
expected to recover in the coming years and to account for about 30 percent of world
exports by 2020. However, increasing wheat use for domestic feed is expected to restrain
even more rapid export growth. Year-to-year volatility in production and trade, as occurred
during the past year, can be expected because of the regions highly variable weather and
yields.

EU wheat exports decline slowly over the next decade as more wheat is used for ethanol.
EU exports drop to about 21 million tons in 2020, down about 18 percent from the 2008/09
peak.

In Canada, increased global demand for vegetable oils (especially rapeseed oil) and for
barley is expected to reduce wheat area and limit any growth in wheat exports.

Wheat exports by the smaller exporters change little during the projection period.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

31

Global rice imports


Million metric tons

40

Other

35
Other Asia
30
Philippines

25
20

N. Africa & M. East

15

Sub-Saharan Africa

10
EU, FSU, & OE 1/
5
0
1990

Latin America 2/
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Includes Mexico.

Global rice trade is projected to grow 2.7 percent per year from 2011 to 2020. In 2020, global rice
trade reaches 41 million tons, 30 percent above the 2006 record. The main factors driving this
expansion in global trade are a steady growth in demandlargely due to population growth in
developing countriesand the inability of several key importers to significantly boost production.
World trade as a share of world consumption, currently about 7 percent, remains substantially
smaller than for other grains and oilseeds.
Long-grain varieties account for around three-fourths of global rice trade and are expected to
account for the bulk of trade growth over the next decade. Medium- and short-grain varieties
account for 10-12 percent of global trade, with Northeast Asia the largest market. Aromatic
rice, primarily basmati and jasmine, makes up most of the rest of global rice trade.
The Philippines, Indonesia, the EU, and Bangladesh become the largest individual riceimporting countries by the end of the projection period. By 2020, each country is projected to
import 1.4 million tons of rice or more. These countries have limited ability to expand
production and are expected to account for more than one-third of the increase in global rice
imports over the next decade.
In Africa and the Middle East, strong demand growth is driven by rapidly expanding
population and income, while production growth is limited. In North Africa and the Middle
East, production is primarily limited by climate. In Sub-Saharan Africa, expanding production
is constrained by infrastructure deficiencies and resource constraints. Altogether, the entire
Africa and Middle-East region accounts for more than one-third of the increase in world rice
trade between 2011 and 2020. Africa accounts for most of this regions rising imports, but
Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia remain large importing countries.
Rice imports by the Central America and Caribbean region are projected to increase by 0.4
million tons over the next decade and to surpass 2.1 million by 2020. Population growth and
rising per capita incomes boost rice consumption and raise imports in this region.
In the EU, Canada, and the United States, immigration is the driving force for rising per capita
consumption and modest import growth. In Mexico, higher incomes contribute to higher per
capita consumption and moderate gains in imports.
Imports by the FSU are projected to decline slightly as a result of strong production growth and
declining population that more than offsets slowly rising per capita consumption.
32

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Global rice exports


Million metric tons

40

Other

35

India

30

China

25
Thailand
20
V ietnam

15

Pakistan

10

United States

5
0
1990

South A merica
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Asia continues to be the source of most of the worlds exports throughout the projection period.
Rice exports from Thailand and Vietnam, the worlds largest rice-exporting countries, account
for more than 45 percent of world trade and for nearly 30 percent of the growth in world
exports in the coming decade. Thailands exports increase 2.1 million tons, to more than 12
million by 2020. Rice area and yields are projected to increase in Thailand. Vietnams export
expansion is smaller, rising from 5.8 to 6.4 million tons. Per capita consumption declines
slowly for both exporters as incomes rise.
India has typically been the third- or fourth-largest rice exporter since the mid-1990s, but its
export levels have been volatile, primarily due to fluctuating stock levels and Government
policies. Indias exports have been well below previous levels for the last several years as
exports of non-basmati rice have largely been banned since the spike in world prices in early
2008. The export ban is assumed to be lifted once stocks are rebuilt, enabling Indias rice
exports to rise to about 5.6 million tons by 2020, making it the third-largest exporter.
Pakistan has been exporting slightly more than 3 million tons in recent years and the United
States about 3.5 million tons. Both exporters are projected to raise their exports to around 4.3
million tons over the next decade. Pakistan has expanded its rice area and production in recent
years although production declined in 2010 due to devastating floods. Some rehabilitation of
irrigation systems will be required as a result of the 2010 floods, and in the coming decade,
Pakistans agricultural sector will be confronted by a growing water shortage and a
deteriorating infrastructure, limiting production and export gains.
U.S. expansion in rice exports is attributable to a slight area expansion after 2012, continued
yield growth, and only modest growth in domestic use.
Rice exports from China, the sixth-largest rice-exporting country, have declined in recent years
but are projected to begin rising again and to reach 1.1 million tons by 2020, nearly double the
level shipped in 2009. Little change in production or total disappearance is expected. Higher
yields are projected to offset declining area as China allows the use of genetically modified
rice. Reductions in per capita consumption, a result of continued diet diversification resulting
from higher incomes, are expected to offset population growth. China also builds rice stocks
during the projection period.
Australian exports are projected to recover only modestly from extremely low levels shipped
during much of the past decade. Exports still will be limited by competing demands for
irrigation water.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

33

Global exports: Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil


Soybean oil,
million metric tons

Soybeans and soybean meal,


million metric tons

18
120

16
Soybeans

14

100

12
Soybean oil

80

10

60

Soybean meal

8
6

40

4
20
0
1990

2
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

0
2020

Economic growth and population increases in developing countries are projected to boost demand for
vegetable oils for food consumption and for protein meals used in livestock production. Vegetable oil
used for biodiesel production is also projected to increase. As demand for vegetable oils increases
faster than for protein meals, vegetable oil prices rise more rapidly than for oilseeds and protein meals,
particularly for rapeseed oil compared with rapeseed meal.

34

Many countries with limited opportunity to expand oilseed production, such as China and some
countries in North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, have invested heavily in crushing
capacity in recent years. As a result, import demand for oilseeds has grown rapidly and should
continue. Global trade in soybeans is projected to increase 30 percent, soymeal by 21 percent,
and soyoil by 19 percent.

In China, increasing per capita income is projected to continue a rapid expansion of consumer
demand for livestock products and vegetable oils. Feed rations are expected to include an
increasing percentage of protein meal to improve rates of weight gain for meat-producing
animals. China will mostly import oilseeds for crushing rather than large amounts of oilseed
meals and oils. This changes the composition of world trade by raising global import demand
for soybeans and other oilseeds rather than for oilseed products.

Argentina, Brazil, and the United States continue to account for about 89 percent of the worlds
aggregate exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil during the coming decade. In
Argentina, uncertainties about grain policies cause farmers to shift some land to soybean
production. Also, some pasture land is converted to crops, especially to soybean production.
This enables Argentina to increase its soybean production, and its share of world exports of
soybeans and products remains above 30 percent. Brazils soybean area continues to increase,
but an increasing share of soybean production is crushed for domestic feed and food use and its
share of exports remains in the 25-31 percent range. The U.S. share of world soybean and
soybean meal trade declines from 29 percent to less than 26 percent by 2020.

The EU is expected to expand biodiesel production using rapeseed oil as the primary feedstock.
Rapeseed area increases early in the projections. Although EU imports of soybeans are
projected to decline, imports of soybean meal and soybean oil increase.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Global soybean imports


Million metric tons

120

Other
China & Hong Kong

100
80

N. Africa & Middle East


Latin America 1/
East Asia

60

EU 2/

40
20
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

World soybean trade is projected to rise rapidly, but at a slower pace than in recent years, climbing
nearly 30 million tons (nearly 30 percent) during the next decade.

The EU was the worlds leading importer of soybeans until 2002. However, increases in
grain and rapeseed meal feeding and rising imports of soybean meal have resulted in
declining soybean imports since then. These trends are projected to continue.

Chinas soybean imports have risen sharply and now account for more than 50 percent of
world trade. China will face policy decisions regarding tradeoffs in producing or importing
corn and soybeans. The projections assume that Chinese policies will pursue selfsufficiency for domestic corn production and let soybean imports increase. Thus, China
accounts for more than 90 percent of the projected 30-million-ton growth in global soybean
imports over the next 10 years. Chinas underutilized oilseed crushing capacity drives
strong gains in soybean imports as China seeks to capture the value added from processing
oilseeds into protein meal and vegetable oil. The use of vegetable oils for biodiesel
production is assumed to have a negligible impact on Chinas total vegetable oil use.

Imports of soybeans and meal by East Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) are
dominated by a continuing shift from importing feedstuffs to importing meat and other
livestock products. As a result, this regions imports of soybeans do not change much
during the coming decade. Small increases in soymeal imports support slowly rising meat
production.

Mexicos soybean imports are projected to increase by more than 20 percent during the
projection period. These imports will support the production of soybean meal for the
Mexican poultry and pork industries and soybean oil for domestic food consumption.

In recent years, Argentina has imported more than a million tons of soybeans to enable its
crushing plants to operate at full capacity. However, changes in Argentine policy provide
disincentives to import in the future. The policy impediment to importing soybeans
supports more rapid expansion in Argentine soybean area in order to supply the needs of
the countrys crushers.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

35

Global soybean exports


Million metric tons

120
100

Other
Other South America
Brazil

80
60

Argentina
United States

40
20
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

The three leading soybean exportersthe United States, Brazil, and Argentinahave
accounted for nearly 90 percent of world trade in recent years. Although exports from other
countries, such as Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia increase during the projections, the share
held by the traditional exports remains near 90 percent.

36

With continuing area gains, Brazil strengthens its position as a leading exporter of
soybeans and soybean products. Combating soybean rust disease increases production
costs. However, as world oilseed prices rise relative to the price of grains, soybeans remain
more profitable than other crops in most areas of Brazil. With increasing soybean plantings
in the Cerrados region and expansion extending into the Legal Amazon region, the growth
rate for Brazils soybean planted area is projected to average nearly 2.5 percent per year
during the coming decade. During the next 10 years, soybean exports are projected to rise
about 47 percent.

Argentinas export tax rates are higher for soybeans than for soybean products, which
favors domestic crushing of whole seeds and exporting the products. However, in response
to world demand for soybeans for crushing, Argentinas soybean exports have risen sharply
and are projected to continue doing so, rising about 30 percent to nearly 18 million tons by
2020. Most of the soybeans exported by Argentina go to China.

Other South American countries, principally Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, respond to
higher oilseed prices by expanding the area planted to soybeans. Exports rise more than 50
percent to nearly 11 million tons.

Canada is the next largest soybean exporter, although its export volume and growth are
well below those of the above-mentioned exporters.

Ukraine responds to higher international market prices for oilseeds by increasing


production of rapeseed and soybeans. Soybean exports from Ukraine are projected to rise
rapidly (32 percent), but from a small base.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Global soybean meal imports


Million metric tons

80
70
60
50
40

Other
EU 1/
Southeast Asia
Latin America 2/
N. Africa & Middle East
FSU & OE 3/
East Asia

30
20
10
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Excludes intra-EU trade.


2/ Includes Mexico. 3/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech
Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

World trade in soybean meal climbs by more than 12 million tons (about 21 percent) in the
projections to 2020. Continued growth in the demand for livestock products, limited capability to
increase oilseed production, and relatively lower world prices for protein meals boost demand for
soybean meal in a number of countries with rising middle-income populations. Lower import
prices for soybean meal relative to soybeans and grains provide incentives for countries to use
imported soybean meal at a higher rate in livestock feed rations.

The EU remains the worlds largest destination for soybean meal throughout the projection
period, despite increased domestic feeding of grains and rapeseed meal. Although there
will be abundant supplies of low-cost rapeseed meal available for feed as a result of the EU
biofuels expansion, there are technical limits on the amount of rapeseed meal that can be
incorporated in livestock rations. As a result, growth in EU soybean meal imports is
expected to continue to increase and to account for more than one-fourth of the increase in
world soybean meal trade.

The regions of Southeast Asia, Latin America, and North Africa and the Middle East all
become larger importers of soybean meal due to increasing demand for livestock feed and
low oilseed meal prices.

Russia is projected to experience rapid growth in soybean meal imports, although from a
small base. Increased livestock production, especially from larger, more modern Russian
facilities, will boost the demand for soybean meal.

Mexicos strong growth in demand for protein feed and vegetable oils is projected to
continue.

Although the projected growth rate for Chinas use of soybean meal is one of the highest in
the world, most of the meal will be supplied by domestic crush, either using domesticallyproduced or imported soybeans.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

37

Global soybean meal exports


Million metric tons

70
Other
60
50
40

Argentina
Brazil
United States

30
20
10
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Argentina, Brazil, and the United States remain the three major exporters in international soybean
meal markets. Together, their share of world exports rises slightly to 90 percent during the next 10
years. Argentina, the worlds largest soybean meal exporter, increases its share of the world
market from less than 50 percent in recent years to about 57 percent. Trade shares held by all
other major exporters decline.

38

Argentina imposes higher export taxes on soybeans than on soybean products. This has
provided an incentive for the country to develop a large oilseed crushing capacity. With
Argentinas low cost of soybean production and the trade policy incentives to export soy
products, soybean meal exports are projected to continue their robust growth.

In Brazil, strong growth in domestic meal consumption due to rapid expansion of the
poultry and pork sectors limits increases in soybean meal exports. Also, domestic soybean
crushing capacity is not expected to grow as fast due to heavy competition from Argentina.
Brazils share of world exports declines from about 25 percent in recent years to less than
19 percent by 2020.

U.S. soybean meal exports remain at about 8 million tons during the next 10 years. The
U.S. share of world exports declines steadily from about 15 percent in most recent years to
less than 12 percent by 2020.

The volume of Indias soybean meal exports declines from more than 3.5 million tons in
most recent years to 1.5 million by 2020 as rapidly increasing poultry, egg, and milk
production absorbs more of Indias soybean meal supplies.

The EU continues to be a small but steady exporter of soybean meal to Russia and other
East European countries where livestock production is expected to increase significantly.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Global soybean oil imports


Million metric tons

Other
N. Africa & Middle East
China
EU, FSU, & OE 1/
India
Latin America 2/
Other Asia 3/

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe.


2/ Includes Mexico. 3/ Asia excluding India and China.

World soybean oil imports climb 1.8 million tons (19 percent) in the projection years, bolstered by
rising food use and increased demand for use in biofuel production. China and India are the
worlds two largest soybean oil importers, primarily for food use. In recent years, their combined
imports have been more than a third of total world trade. The growth in soybean oil trade will be
constrained by competition with palm oil, which claims the top ranking in world vegetable oil
trade.

Income and population growth in Latin America, North Africa, and the Middle East
contribute to gains in soybean oil demand and imports. Although rising international prices
for soybean oil will temper consumption, especially in developing countries, imports by the
North Africa and the Middle East region are projected to be exceeded only by those of
Latin America.

India remains the worlds largest soybean oil importing country. Factors that contribute to
continued growth in imports include burgeoning domestic demand for vegetable oils and
limited capacity to expand domestic production of oilseeds. Low yields, associated with
erratic rainfed growing conditions and low input use, inhibit growth of oilseed production.
India sharply reduced its edible oil import tariffs to zero in 2008 in response to high world
prices. It is assumed that during the next decade, the soybean oil tariff gradually rises
toward the prior rate of 45 percent, but that tariffs for the other major imported oilspalm
and sunflowerremain below their historical highs of 75-85 percent.

China experiences a growing demand for vegetable oils, and land-use competition from
other crops constrains the expansion in area planted to oilseed crops. However, with the
rapid increase in soybean imports for crush, China is able to slowly decrease its imports of
soybean oil during the coming decade.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

39

Global soybean oil exports


Million metric tons

12

Other
Argentina

10
8

Brazil
EU 1/
United States

6
4
2
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

Argentinas and Brazils combined share of world soybean oil exports dropped from 84 percent in
2005/06 to 65 percent in 2009/10 due poor harvests. However, these countries are projected to
recover partially during the next 5 years to about 75 percent of world trade.

40

Argentina is the leading exporter of soybean oil, reflecting the countrys large crushing
capacity, its small domestic market for soybean oil, and an export tax structure that favors
exports of soybean products rather than soybeans. Gains in Argentine soybean production
due to extensive double cropping, further adjustments in crop-pasture rotations, and the
addition of marginal lands in the northwest part of the country, contribute to increased
soybean production and crush. Argentinas soyoil exports are projected to continue
increasing even though more soybean oil is expected to be used as a feedstock for biodiesel
productionwith most of the biodiesel destined for export. The projected 2011-2020
growth in soybean oil exports account for 60 percent of the increase in world soyoil trade.

Brazils projected increase in soybean oil exports accounts for most of the rest of global
increases in soybean oil trade. Although Brazil is also projected to use more soyoil for
biodiesel production, expansion of soybean production into new areas of cultivation
enables it to increase its volume of soybean oil exports from its 2009/2010 reduced level.
It does not however, recover to the large volumes exported between 2002 and 2007.

The United States remains the worlds third-largest soybean oil exporter. U.S. soybean oil
exports will be constrained by increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel production. U.S.
canola oil imports from Canada and palm oil imports from Southeast Asia are projected to
continue to grow strongly, and augment the U.S. edible oil supply.

In the EU, exportable supplies of vegetable oils are limited by the growth in biodiesel
production.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Rapeseed production and rapeseed oil trade


Percent of world

Rapeseed share of world oilseed crop production1/

20

15

Rapeseed oil share of world


trade of vegetable oils 1/
10

0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Annual oilseed crops include soybeans and sunflower seed,


in addition to rapeseed

In the last 10 years, rapeseed and rapeseed oil have captured an increasing share of world oilseed
production and the trade in vegetable oils produced from annual oilseed crops.

Global demand for vegetable oils has been strong, trending up more than 5 percent a year
for more than a decade. A higher oil content for rapeseed (40 percent) compared to
soybeans (19 percent) and other annual oilseed crops has enhanced the demand for
rapeseed over other oilseeds. Rapeseed oil has also become a major feedstock for
producing biodiesel in the EU and Canada.

Between 2000 and 2010, the growth rate in world average rapeseed yields (2.4 percent)
rose more than twice as rapidly as for soybeans (0.8 percent) and in recent years worldaverage rapeseed yields have been higher than for soybeans. Faster yield growth combined
with higher oil content, and more oil produced per hectare, provided economic incentives
to produce more rapeseed. The rate of increase in area planted to rapeseed (3.4 percent)
was higher than for soybeans (2.8 percent), and was considerably higher than the rate for
all other oilseeds, and the rate for all field crops.

The major rapeseed importers are Japan, EU, China, and Mexico. A second tier of
importers includes Pakistan, the United States, Turkey, and Bangladesh. Canada is by far
the largest exporter, followed by Ukraine and Australia.

In the projections, the rate of growth in world rapeseed production continues to outpace
that of soybeans, although the growth gap narrows. The projected growth rates for world
rapeseed and rapeseed oil trade are also higher than the rates for soybeans and soybean oil.
In Canada, rapeseed oil exports go mainly to the United States but start to slow as more oil
is used for Canadian biodiesel production. Increasing exports from other countries,
especially Russia and Ukraine, are assumed to partially offset slower growth in Canadian
exports.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

41

G lobal cotton im ports


Million bales
60
Other
China
50
Latin A meric a 1/
Southeas t A s ia 2/
South A s ia 3/
40
EU, FSU, & OE 4/
Eas t A s ia
30

20
10
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Includes M exico. 2/ M alaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam . 3/ Bangladesh,


India, and Pakistan. 4/ European Union, form er Soviet Union, and other Europe.

World cotton trade is projected to trend upward at 1.8 per cent a year until 2020, but does not
surpass the 2005 record until half way through the projection period. There continue to be
geographical shifts in mill use and trade of cotton but not as dramatic as those associated with the
elimination of the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) quotas in 2005. Asias share of world cotton
imports has risen from less than 50 percent in the late 1990s to more than 70 percent in 2010 and is
projected to reach more than 83 percent by 2020.

42

The textile industries in China, India, and Pakistan were the major beneficiaries of textile
trade liberalization as a result of the elimination of the MFA quotas in 2005. However,
imports have risen in other Asian countries as well, most notably Bangladesh and Vietnam.

Chinas textile industry and its cotton imports are expected to grow during the projection
period, but more slowly than the rapid increases from 2001 to 2005 after joining the World
Trade Organization (WTO). Nonetheless, during the coming decade, China is projected to
account for more than two-thirds of the global increase in cotton imports.

Bangladesh has become a major importer in recent years and as imports continue rising, the
country is projected to become the worlds second-largest importer by 2020.

Pakistan has also become a significant importer in recent years but import growth slows in
the projections as new Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton varieties specific to Pakistans
cotton production conditions prove more productive and reduce the need for imports.

Until several years ago, Turkeys textile industry benefited from favorable trade access to
the EU, its major market for textile and apparel exports. However, the end of the MFA
quotas gave lower cost competitors more favorable access to EU markets. Turkeys cotton
imports have fallen and are projected to continue declining over the next 10 years.

The EU, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea all reduce their cotton imports as textile trade
reforms or higher wages in these countries, or both, drive textile production to countries
with lower wages and other costs.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Global cotton exports


Million bales

50
Other
40
India
United States

30

South America
20
Australia
Sub-Saharan Africa

10

Former Soviet Union


0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Globalization is expected to continue to move raw cotton production to countries with favorable
resource endowments and technology. Traditional producers with large land bases suitable for
cotton production continue to benefit from post-MFA trade patterns, including the United States,
Brazil, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The importance of technology has been highlighted by the impact
of Indias rapid adoption of genetically modified cotton, nearly all Bt cotton.

The United States continues as the worlds leading cotton exporter throughout the
projections. U.S. exports rise slightly to about 16 million bales by 2020. The U.S. share of
world exports declines slightly from 35 percent in recent years, to 34 percent by 2020.

Brazils cotton exports double during the coming decade as the area planted to cotton and
soybeans expands. Exports from Brazil rise more than from any other country or region,
surpassing exports from India and Australia, and enable Brazil to become the worlds
second-largest cotton exporter.

Sub-Saharan Africas exports are projected to rise rapidly during the coming decade as
these economies develop and as Bt cotton is adopted by the regions producers. The
regions exports are projected to rise about 60 percent during the next 10 years and to
account for one third of world trade growth.

Government policies in the Central Asian countries of the FSU promoting investment in
textiles have contributed to more exports of textile products rather than exports of raw
cotton. However, the continued increase in cotton exports account for 17 percent of the
increase in world exports.

Improved cotton yields in India, largely due to the adoption of Bt cotton containing the Bt
gene, have raised Indias production and exports in recent years. Yield growth is projected
to continue as the area planted to Bt cotton expands and cultivation practices improve. The
increase in cotton output is expected to enable India to increase textile production and
maintain exports.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

43

Meat exports 1/
Million metric tons

10

Poultry

Beef and veal

6
Pork

4
2
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Major exporters.

The growth in world per capita meat consumption is expected to slow during the 2011-20
projection period to less than two-thirds of 1 percent per year. Still, meat shipments from major
exporters trend upwards at 1.4 percent per year. The projected growth rates of exports from major
exporters of beef, pork, and poultry meat are 1.7, 1.3, and 1.2 percent per year, respectively.
During this period, exports rise 1.1 million tons for beef, 1.2 million for pork, and 0.9 million for
poultry. Rising per capita incomes combined with population growth in a number of countries are
the driving forces behind the projected growth in global meat demand.

44

Russias net imports of meat decline slowly during the coming decade in response to the
countrys policies to reduce imports and to stimulate meat production. Pork and poultry
meat account for most of the decline in meat imports.

Canadian beef exports and imports are each projected to rise slowly after 2012 with net
exports remaining stable but well below the 2004 record. Canadas cow herd contracted
significantly during 2006-10 and rebuilding beef herds is expected to progress slowly.

EU beef exports, after steadily declining for more than a decade, stabilize at the current low
level as policies continue to discourage beef production and limit the EUs competitiveness
in international markets.

Argentine beef exports declined sharply after the 2005 peak as export restrictions on beef
and changes in other policies made Argentinas exports less competitive. Beef exports are
projected to decline further during the next several years as Argentine producers begin to
rebuild their herds. Beef exports then begin to rise slowly, but are constrained by reduced
beef imports by Russia, which has been a major market for Argentine beef.

The projections assume no changes in the set of countries that recognize all regions within
Brazil as free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), thus limiting Brazils ability to compete in
some markets for pork and beef. However, exports from Brazils expanding pork sector
are expected to be competitive in price-sensitive markets such as Russia and Asian
countries other than Japan and South Korea.

During the coming decade, Brazil is expected to continue as the largest exporter of poultry
products, as a result of low production costs and competitive export prices.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Beef imports 1/
Million metric tons
7
N. A f ric a & Middle Eas t
Rus s ia

Canada & Mex ic o


United States

Eas t A s ia
EU 2/

4
3
2
1
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Selected importers.
2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

Beef imports by major importers declined in 2009. The most significant declines occurred in
South Asian countries, the United States, Russia, and Mexico. In 2010, import growth renewed in
the regions of North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, but was offset by stagnant trade or
continuing declines in most of the rest of the world.
Between 2011 and 2020, beef imports by major importers resume growth and expand nearly 0.7
million metric tons (14 percent). Traditionally, developed countries have been the primary
importers of beef. However, imports by a number of low- and middle-income income countries
are projected to increase, especially imports of lower priced, grass-fed beef from Brazil.

During the next 10 years, Russian beef imports are projected to fluctuate around 0.9 million
tons as rising consumer demand is offset by expanding Russian beef production and import
restrictions. Russia remains a significant market for EU and South American beef exports.

Imports of grain-fed beef by higher-income countries are projected to rise slowly. U.S.
beef exports to these countries are projected to increase somewhat over the next 10 years
although they will have to compete with exports from other suppliers.

U.S. beef imports, primarily of grass-fed, lean beef from Australia and New Zealand for
use in ground beef and processed products, rise during the projection period. Also, strong
Asian imports of beef enable Australia and New Zealand to maintain significant levels of
exports over the projection period.

Strong growth in Mexican beef imports is projected to resume over the next several years.
Much of Mexicos imports consist of higher valued, grain-fed beef from the United States.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

45

Pork imports 1/
Million metric tons

China & Hong Kong


Russia

Mexico
East Asia

United States
2
1

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Selected importers.

Global pork trade declined in 2009 in response to the global economic recession. Imports fell the
most in China, Russia, Ukraine, other countries of the FSU, Japan, and South Korea. Although
world imports partially recovered in 2010, import levels for many countries remained below the
2008 peak.
In the projections for 2011 to 2020, world pork imports are expected to resume growth, and to
increase by more than 0.66 million tons (11 percent).

46

Russias policies to stimulate livestock production are expected to cause pork imports to
decline steadily during the next 10 years. Although Russias TRQ on pork imports is
assumed to cease after 2012, other trade barriers may constrain growth in Russian pork
imports.

Mexican pork imports increase the most of any country in the world, rising more than
350,000 tons (52 percent) between 2011 and 2020. Increases in income and population are
the primary drivers of Mexicos increasing demand for pork. Mexico accounts for more
than one-half of the growth in global pork trade during the coming decade.

Some higher income countries in East Asia increase pork imports to satisfy demand for
selected cuts of pork, especially pork bellies. Japan is by far the worlds largest pork
importer, but as a mature market with declining population, its imports are not projected to
rise significantly. South Korea is Asias fastest growing pork importer and its imports
account for one-fourth of the increase in world pork imports during the projection period.

Chinas pork imports rose sharply in 2008 and it became a net importer. Since then, the
countrys pork imports have declined significantly but it remains a net importer. In the
projections, pork exports rise slightly more than imports, but the country remains a small
net importer in 2020. Hong Kongs pork imports are expected to continue rising during the
coming decade.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Poultry imports 1/
Million metric tons

8
Russia
Mexico
Other N Afr. & M. East
Saudi Arabia
Sub-Saharan Africa
European Union 2/
East Asia
China & Hong Kong

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ Selected importers.
2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

Poultry meat imports by major importers are projected to increase by more than 1 million tons (20
percent) between 2011 and 2020. The projections indicate strong poultry import growth
throughout much of the world except, most notably, for Russia, Europe, and Japan.

Poultry imports by Africa and the Middle East now account for about 40 percent of imports
by the major importers. Income and population growth boosts demand in the projections.
In addition, ongoing animal disease concerns in a number of countries are expected to slow
growth in production and to increase demand for imports. As a result, the regions imports
grow more than the rest of the world combined.

Rising consumer incomes increase poultry demand and imports in Mexico and the Central
America and Caribbean region. Poultry products remain less expensive than beef or pork,
further stimulating demand. Mexicos domestic poultry production continues to increase
during the projection period, but rises at a slower rate than consumption, with the result that
imports rise by 0.35 million tons (50 percent).

Russias poultry imports are projected to decline sharply during the next 5 years. Policies
that make the poultry TRQ regime more restrictive will restrain poultry imports and
stimulate domestic poultry production. Higher prices and slower growth in income and per
capita poultry consumption also inhibit import growth.

In South Korea, increasing per capita consumption, combined with environmental concerns
that limit production growth, boost imports 16 percent during the next decade.

Because of avian influenza, some major poultry-exporting countries such as Thailand and
China have shifted most of their exports to fully cooked products, and are projected to
continue to do so. Because of higher production costs, these cooked products will be
marketed to higher income countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

Chinas rising consumption of poultry meat is met by expanding domestic production and
the countrys poultry net exports climb by about 55,000 tons.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

47

Table 4. Coarse grains trade long-term projections


2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Imports, million metric tons
Importers
Former Soviet Union1
Other Europe

0.5
0.7

2.3
0.7

1.0
0.7

1.0
0.7

1.1
0.7

1.2
0.6

1.2
0.6

1.3
0.6

1.3
0.6

1.4
0.6

1.5
0.6

1.5
0.6

European Union2
North Africa & Middle East

3.0
33.6

5.0
31.3

3.8
32.8

3.5
34.2

3.3
35.3

3.2
36.0

3.5
37.0

3.6
37.8

3.6
38.6

3.4
39.2

3.4
39.8

3.3
40.2

Sub-Saharan Africa3
Japan
South Korea
Taiw an
China
Other Asia & Oceania
Mexico
Central America & Caribbean
Brazil
Other South America

3.1
19.2
8.5
4.8
3.8
6.4
11.2
4.9
1.1
9.9

2.2
19.2
9.0
4.9
3.1
6.2
12.0
5.0
1.4
9.3

2.2
19.0
9.0
5.0
3.4
6.5
12.2
5.0
1.4
9.4

2.3
19.0
9.1
5.1
4.2
6.9
12.9
5.0
1.4
9.6

2.4
18.9
9.1
5.1
5.0
7.0
13.6
5.0
1.4
9.7

2.5
18.8
9.2
5.1
5.8
7.2
14.0
5.0
1.4
9.9

2.7
18.8
9.3
5.1
6.8
7.5
14.5
5.1
1.4
10.1

2.8
18.7
9.3
5.2
7.6
7.7
15.2
5.2
1.5
10.1

2.9
18.6
9.4
5.2
8.7
7.9
15.9
5.3
1.5
10.2

3.0
18.5
9.5
5.1
9.5
8.0
16.6
5.3
1.5
10.2

3.2
18.5
9.6
5.1
10.5
8.2
17.4
5.3
1.5
10.2

3.3
18.4
9.6
5.2
11.1
8.3
18.2
5.3
1.6
10.1

5.5

4.8

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

2.6

2.3

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

118.7

118.4

119.4

122.5

125.5

127.8

131.3

134.1

137.2

139.6

142.4

144.4

Other foreign4
United States
Total trade

Exports, million metric tons

Exporters
European Union2
China
Argentina
Australia
Canada
South Africa
Other Europe

3.0
0.2
16.9
4.6
3.1
2.5
1.8

6.0
0.3
19.7
5.1
3.1
2.5
2.7

5.6
0.3
18.3
5.0
4.2
2.5
2.5

6.5
0.3
18.8
4.7
3.9
2.5
2.5

7.0
0.3
19.4
5.0
3.8
2.7
2.6

7.3
0.3
19.6
5.1
3.9
2.7
2.7

7.6
0.3
19.9
5.1
3.8
2.7
2.8

7.8
0.2
20.1
5.1
3.7
2.6
2.9

8.2
0.2
20.2
5.1
3.5
2.7
2.8

8.3
0.2
20.1
5.2
3.3
2.6
2.9

8.6
0.2
20.1
5.2
3.1
2.7
2.8

8.8
0.2
19.9
5.2
3.0
2.6
2.8

Former Soviet Union1


Other foreign

14.9
16.7

10.5
14.6

11.7
14.0

12.6
14.7

13.0
15.0

13.3
15.4

15.0
15.9

15.6
16.5

16.7
16.8

17.8
16.6

19.0
16.7

19.8
16.8

United States

54.8

53.9

55.3

56.0

56.8

57.5

58.3

59.7

61.1

62.5

63.9

65.3

44.4

44.5

44.5

44.8

44.9

45.2

Percent
U.S. trade share

46.2

45.5

46.3

45.7

45.3

45.0

1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.


2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.
3/ Includes South Africa.
4/ Includes unaccounted.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

48

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 5. Corn trade long-term projections


2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Imports, million metric tons


Importers
European Union1

2.9

4.5

3.4

3.0

2.8

2.7

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.6

0.3
5.5
2.3
1.7
4.2
1.8
0.6
5.6
16.0
8.5
4.6
1.3
1.2
2.8
2.3
2.1
8.4
4.9
0.7
8.6

1.2
5.4
2.3
1.8
3.2
1.8
0.7
6.0
16.1
9.0
4.7
1.0
0.8
2.8
2.5
1.8
9.1
5.0
1.0
8.1

0.5
5.4
2.4
1.9
3.4
1.9
0.8
6.0
16.0
9.0
4.9
1.2
0.9
2.9
2.7
1.8
9.2
5.0
1.0
8.1

0.5
5.4
2.4
2.0
3.6
2.0
0.8
6.1
16.0
9.0
4.9
1.8
0.9
3.0
2.9
1.9
9.9
5.0
1.0
8.3

0.6
5.5
2.5
2.1
3.8
2.1
0.9
6.1
16.0
9.1
4.9
2.5
1.0
3.0
3.0
1.9
10.4
5.0
1.0
8.4

0.7
5.5
2.6
2.2
3.9
2.2
0.9
6.2
15.9
9.1
4.9
3.2
1.1
3.1
3.1
1.9
10.8
5.0
1.0
8.5

0.7
5.6
2.7
2.2
4.1
2.3
1.0
6.3
15.9
9.2
5.0
4.1
1.1
3.2
3.2
1.8
11.1
5.1
1.0
8.6

0.8
5.8
2.7
2.3
4.2
2.4
1.0
6.3
15.9
9.3
5.0
4.9
1.2
3.2
3.3
1.8
11.8
5.2
1.0
8.6

0.8
6.0
2.8
2.4
4.3
2.5
1.0
6.4
15.9
9.3
5.0
5.8
1.2
3.3
3.4
1.8
12.3
5.3
1.0
8.7

0.9
6.1
2.8
2.4
4.3
2.6
1.1
6.4
15.9
9.4
5.0
6.6
1.3
3.3
3.4
1.9
13.0
5.3
1.0
8.6

0.9
6.1
2.9
2.5
4.4
2.7
1.1
6.5
15.8
9.5
5.0
7.5
1.4
3.4
3.4
1.9
13.6
5.3
1.0
8.6

0.9
6.2
2.9
2.5
4.4
2.8
1.2
6.5
15.8
9.5
5.0
8.0
1.4
3.4
3.5
1.8
14.3
5.3
1.0
8.6

Sub-Saharan Africa3

2.3

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

Other foreign4

4.0

2.7

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

United States

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

92.6

93.2

93.0

95.2

97.4

99.3

102.3

104.8

107.5

109.4

111.6

113.2

Former Soviet Union2


Egypt
Algeria
Morocco
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Other N. Africa & Middle East
Japan
South Korea
Taiw an
China
Indonesia
Malaysia
Other Asia & Oceania
Canada
Mexico
Central America & Caribbean
Brazil
Other South America

Total trade

Exports, million metric tons

Exporters
European Union1
China
Argentina
Brazil
South Africa
Other Europe
Former Soviet Union2
Other foreign
United States

1.5
0.2
15.0
9.0
2.5
1.8

1.0
0.2
17.5
7.0
2.5
2.7

1.3
0.2
16.0
6.5
2.5
2.4

1.5
0.2
16.5
7.0
2.5
2.4

1.7
0.2
17.0
7.2
2.6
2.6

1.9
0.2
17.2
7.5
2.6
2.7

2.2
0.2
17.5
8.0
2.6
2.8

2.3
0.2
17.7
8.5
2.6
2.8

2.6
0.1
17.8
8.8
2.6
2.8

2.7
0.1
17.7
8.5
2.6
2.9

2.9
0.1
17.7
8.5
2.7
2.8

3.1
0.1
17.4
8.5
2.6
2.8

5.5
6.6

5.6
7.1

6.1
7.1

6.4
7.2

6.6
7.3

7.1
7.4

8.3
7.4

8.5
7.5

9.2
7.6

10.0
7.7

10.8
7.8

11.1
7.9

50.5

49.5

50.8

51.4

52.1

52.7

53.3

54.6

55.9

57.2

58.4

59.7

52.1

52.1

52.0

52.3

52.3

52.7

Percent
U.S. trade share
54.5
53.2
1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.
2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.
3/ Includes South Africa.
4/ Includes unaccounted.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

54.6

54.1

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

53.5

53.1

49

Table 6. Barley trade long-term projections


2009/10 2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Imports, million metric tons


Importers
Former Soviet Union1
Japan
South Korea
Taiw an
China

0.2
1.4
0.0
0.1
2.3

0.8
1.4
0.0
0.1
2.0

0.4
1.4
0.0
0.1
2.1

0.4
1.3
0.0
0.1
2.3

0.5
1.4
0.0
0.1
2.4

0.5
1.4
0.0
0.1
2.5

0.5
1.3
0.0
0.1
2.6

0.5
1.3
0.0
0.1
2.7

0.5
1.4
0.0
0.1
2.7

0.5
1.4
0.1
0.1
2.8

0.6
1.4
0.1
0.1
2.9

0.6
1.3
0.1
0.1
3.0

European Union2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Latin America3
Algeria
Saudi Arabia
Morocco
Tunisia
South Africa
Iran
Other N. Africa & M. East

0.9
0.1
7.9
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.9
2.4

0.9
0.0
7.0
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.4
1.8

0.9
0.0
7.5
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.6
2.0

0.9
0.0
7.7
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.7
2.2

0.9
0.0
7.8
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.9
2.3

1.0
0.0
7.9
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.9
2.4

1.0
0.1
8.0
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.9
2.4

1.0
0.2
8.0
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.9
2.5

1.0
0.2
8.1
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.9
2.5

1.1
0.2
8.2
0.8
0.4
0.1
1.0
2.5

1.1
0.2
8.2
0.9
0.4
0.1
1.0
2.6

1.1
0.2
8.3
0.9
0.4
0.1
1.0
2.6

Other foreign4

-0.2

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

United States

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

17.1

16.3

17.0

18.0

18.7

19.1

19.4

19.7

20.1

20.4

20.8

21.0

Total trade

Exports, million metric tons

Exporters
2

European Union
Australia
Canada

1.1
3.8
1.3

4.6
4.1
1.4

3.9
4.0
1.9

4.6
3.9
1.8

4.9
4.2
1.7

5.0
4.3
1.8

5.0
4.3
1.8

5.0
4.4
1.6

5.1
4.4
1.5

5.2
4.5
1.4

5.2
4.5
1.2

5.2
4.5
1.1

Russia

2.7

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.0

Ukraine

6.2

4.0

4.2

4.7

4.9

4.8

5.1

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

Other Former Soviet Union5


Turkey
Other foreign

0.4
0.8
0.7

0.2
0.4
1.1

0.6
0.4
1.2

0.7
0.4
1.2

0.8
0.4
1.2

0.8
0.5
1.2

0.8
0.4
1.3

0.9
0.4
1.3

1.1
0.4
1.3

1.2
0.4
1.3

1.3
0.5
1.3

1.4
0.5
1.3

United States

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

Percent
U.S. trade share

0.7

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.


2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.
3/ Includes Mexico.
4/ Includes unaccounted.
5/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia and Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

50

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 7. Sorghum trade long-term projections


2009/10 2010/11
Importers
Japan
Mexico
North Africa & Middle East
South America

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Imports, million metric tons


1.7
2.6
0.2
0.8

1.6
2.7
0.1
0.8

1.6
2.8
0.1
0.8

1.5
2.9
0.1
0.8

1.5
3.0
0.1
0.8

1.4
3.1
0.1
0.9

1.3
3.2
0.1
0.9

1.3
3.3
0.1
0.9

1.2
3.4
0.1
0.9

1.2
3.5
0.1
0.9

1.1
3.6
0.1
0.9

1.1
3.7
0.1
0.9

Sub-Saharan Africa1

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

Other 2

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

Total trade

6.5

6.4

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.8

6.9

7.0

7.2

7.3

1.3
0.5
0.0
0.3

1.3
0.4
0.0
0.3

1.2
0.4
0.0
0.3

1.2
0.5
0.0
0.3

1.2
0.5
0.0
0.3

1.2
0.5
0.0
0.3

4.6
4.7
Percent
68.3
69.5

4.8

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

70.9

72.1

72.3

72.7

72.9

Exports, million metric tons

Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Other foreign

1.4
0.6
0.0
0.3

1.3
0.8
0.0
0.2

1.3
0.7
0.0
0.2

1.3
0.6
0.0
0.3

1.3
0.6
0.0
0.3

United States

4.2

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

U.S. trade share

64.9

63.2

65.2

66.9

67.5

1.3
0.5
0.0
0.3

1/ Includes South Africa.


2/ EU-27 and the rest of the w orld. Excludes intra-EU trade. Includes unaccounted.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

51

Table 8. Wheat trade long-term projections


2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Imports, million metric tons


Importers
Algeria
Tunisia
Morocco
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
Other N. Africa & Middle East

5.2
1.5
2.3
10.3
1.9
5.0
3.9
15.2

5.3
1.8
3.6
9.8
2.0
0.8
3.6
13.1

5.7
1.7
3.4
10.0
2.3
2.5
3.2
13.7

5.8
1.7
3.4
10.1
2.5
2.5
3.5
13.6

5.9
1.8
3.5
10.4
2.7
2.5
3.6
13.9

6.1
1.8
3.6
10.7
2.7
2.5
3.7
14.0

6.2
1.8
3.6
10.9
2.8
2.5
3.8
14.1

6.3
1.9
3.7
11.1
2.9
2.5
3.9
14.2

6.4
1.9
3.7
11.3
3.0
2.5
4.1
14.4

6.5
1.9
3.7
11.6
3.1
2.5
4.2
14.5

6.6
1.9
3.8
11.8
3.2
2.5
4.3
14.5

6.7
2.0
3.9
12.1
3.3
2.5
4.4
14.6

Sub-Saharan Africa1
Mexico
Central America & Caribbean
Brazil
Other South America

15.8
3.2
3.5
7.0
6.6

14.3
3.3
3.5
6.5
6.5

14.4
3.4
3.5
6.5
6.5

15.0
3.4
3.6
6.6
6.6

15.8
3.5
3.7
6.7
6.8

16.2
3.6
3.7
6.7
6.8

16.7
3.7
3.7
6.7
6.8

17.1
3.7
3.7
6.8
6.9

17.6
3.8
3.8
6.8
6.9

18.1
3.9
3.8
6.9
7.0

18.5
3.9
3.8
7.0
7.0

19.0
4.0
3.8
7.0
7.0

European Union2
Other Europe

5.5
1.7

5.5
1.8

6.2
1.8

6.3
1.9

6.4
1.9

6.5
1.9

6.6
2.0

6.7
2.0

6.8
2.1

6.9
2.1

6.9
2.2

7.0
2.2

Former Soviet Union3


Japan
South Korea
Philippines
Indonesia
China
Bangladesh
Malaysia
Thailand
Vietnam
Pakistan
Other Asia & Oceania

5.4
5.5
4.5
3.2
5.4
1.4
3.3
1.3
1.6
1.9
0.2
7.7

7.4
5.2
3.6
2.8
5.5
1.0
2.5
1.3
1.1
1.5
0.3
7.2

5.9
5.2
4.0
2.9
5.6
0.9
2.6
1.3
1.2
1.6
2.6
7.4

6.0
5.2
3.9
3.1
5.8
0.8
2.6
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.0
7.6

6.0
5.2
3.9
3.2
6.0
0.8
2.7
1.4
1.3
1.8
0.6
8.1

6.0
5.2
4.0
3.3
6.1
0.7
2.8
1.4
1.3
1.8
0.4
8.4

6.1
5.1
4.0
3.3
6.2
0.8
2.9
1.4
1.3
1.9
0.4
8.7

6.1
5.1
4.0
3.4
6.3
0.7
3.0
1.4
1.4
1.9
0.4
9.0

6.1
5.0
4.0
3.5
6.5
0.8
3.0
1.4
1.4
2.0
0.4
9.3

6.1
5.0
4.0
3.6
6.6
0.9
3.1
1.4
1.4
2.0
0.4
9.6

6.1
5.0
4.0
3.6
6.7
1.0
3.2
1.4
1.5
2.1
0.4
9.9

6.2
4.9
4.0
3.7
6.9
1.0
3.3
1.5
1.5
2.2
0.5
10.2

Other foreign4

2.2

3.5

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

United States

3.2

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.5

135.3

127.2

132.1

132.8

135.8

138.0

140.1

142.5

144.6

147.1

149.4

151.9

20.4
17.2
18.0
9.0

20.2
17.2
18.1
9.2

20.1
17.3
18.2
9.4

19.9
17.3
18.2
9.6

20.8
17.3
18.2
9.8

Total trade

Exports, million metric tons

Exporters
2

European Union
Canada
Australia
Argentina

22.1
19.0
14.5
5.5

Russia

18.6

Ukraine

9.3

Other Former Soviet Union5


Other Europe
India
China
Turkey
Other foreign

8.8
0.8
0.1
0.9
4.4
7.3
24.0

United States

22.0
17.5
16.0
8.0

21.2
17.9
16.5
8.1

20.5
17.2
17.0
8.2

20.4
16.3
17.8
8.4

20.1
17.1
18.0
8.6

20.0
17.2
18.0
8.8

4.0

7.0

10.8

14.0

16.0

17.5

18.8

20.0

21.2

22.5

23.5

6.0

8.5

9.0

9.4

9.7

10.0

10.2

10.4

10.6

10.8

11.0

6.7
0.3
0.2
2.0
3.0
7.5

8.0
0.3
0.4
2.3
3.0
7.6

8.2
0.3
1.3
2.5
2.9
7.7

8.5
0.3
3.0
2.8
2.8
7.7

8.7
0.3
1.5
3.0
2.8
7.8

9.1
0.3
0.9
3.1
2.8
7.8

9.8
0.3
0.3
3.3
2.8
7.9

10.4
0.3
0.1
3.4
2.8
8.0

11.0
0.3
0.1
3.5
2.8
8.1

11.6
0.4
0.1
3.6
2.7
8.2

12.2
0.4
0.1
3.8
2.7
8.2

34.0

31.3

27.2

24.5

24.5

24.5

24.5

24.5

24.5

24.5

23.8

17.5

17.2

16.9

16.7

16.4

15.7

Percent
U.S. trade share
17.7
26.7
23.7
20.5
1/ Includes South Africa.
2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.
3/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.
4/ Includes unaccounted w hich can be negative.
5/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia and Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

52

18.0

17.8

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 9. Rice trade long-term projections


2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Imports, million metric tons


Importers
Canada
Mexico
Central America/Caribbean
Brazil
Other South America

0.36
0.60
1.44
0.90
0.46

0.34
0.65
1.48
0.65
0.73

0.35
0.69
1.69
0.94
0.56

0.35
0.71
1.82
0.87
0.53

0.36
0.74
1.87
0.84
0.43

0.36
0.77
1.91
0.88
0.37

0.37
0.79
1.94
0.82
0.31

0.37
0.82
1.96
0.72
0.31

0.38
0.84
2.01
0.61
0.31

0.38
0.87
2.03
0.60
0.31

0.38
0.89
2.09
0.61
0.31

0.39
0.92
2.13
0.61
0.31

European Union1

1.24

1.35

1.29

1.32

1.35

1.37

1.39

1.41

1.43

1.45

1.47

1.49

Former Soviet Union2


Other Europe
Bangladesh
China
Japan
South Korea
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Other Asia & Oceania
Iraq
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Other N. Africa & M. East

0.37
0.13
0.09
0.30
0.70
0.30
0.80
1.07
2.20
2.37
1.10
1.15
1.10
2.54

0.34
0.12
0.75
0.33
0.70
0.33
0.65
1.02
2.00
2.46
1.15
1.20
1.10
2.46

0.35
0.13
0.82
0.37
0.68
0.35
0.80
1.01
2.50
2.55
1.17
1.24
1.10
2.50

0.36
0.13
0.89
0.40
0.68
0.39
0.93
1.09
2.70
2.70
1.20
1.32
1.12
2.46

0.35
0.13
0.99
0.43
0.68
0.41
1.05
1.17
3.00
2.81
1.23
1.35
1.14
2.57

0.35
0.13
1.04
0.45
0.68
0.41
1.11
1.24
3.30
2.90
1.25
1.36
1.16
2.68

0.35
0.13
1.12
0.49
0.68
0.41
1.17
1.28
3.50
3.02
1.27
1.35
1.18
2.76

0.35
0.13
1.18
0.52
0.68
0.41
1.25
1.30
3.70
3.13
1.29
1.36
1.21
2.83

0.34
0.13
1.25
0.54
0.68
0.41
1.34
1.32
3.85
3.26
1.32
1.37
1.23
2.91

0.34
0.13
1.32
0.57
0.68
0.41
1.43
1.34
3.97
3.41
1.34
1.37
1.26
3.00

0.33
0.13
1.39
0.60
0.68
0.41
1.51
1.36
4.08
3.55
1.36
1.37
1.29
3.09

0.32
0.13
1.45
0.62
0.68
0.41
1.57
1.37
4.22
3.70
1.37
1.36
1.32
3.17

Sub-Saharan Africa3
South Africa

6.90
0.80

7.41
0.90

7.75
0.91

8.19
0.92

8.38
0.91

8.55
0.92

8.73
0.94

8.91
0.96

9.08
0.97

9.25
0.99

9.42
1.00

9.59
1.02

Other foreign4

2.02

1.75

1.80

1.81

1.81

1.84

1.90

1.96

2.00

2.03

2.03

2.04

United States

0.60

0.62

0.64

0.65

0.67

0.69

0.71

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.80

Total imports

29.54

30.47

32.20

33.54

34.66

35.72

36.60

37.47

38.33

39.22

40.12

41.00

Exporters
Australia
Argentina
Other South America

Exports, million metric tons


0.04
0.55
1.57

0.33
0.70
1.95

0.18
0.66
1.64

0.15
0.61
1.69

0.15
0.61
1.74

0.15
0.63
1.79

0.15
0.66
1.82

0.15
0.69
1.91

0.15
0.72
2.00

0.15
0.74
2.15

0.15
0.76
2.30

0.15
0.78
2.46

European Union1
China
India
Pakistan
Thailand
Vietnam
Egypt
Other foreign

0.23
0.60
2.20
3.80
8.50
6.20
0.70
1.69

0.18
0.90
2.50
2.65
9.70
5.80
0.30
1.83

0.18
0.90
3.64
2.75
10.37
5.80
0.28
2.02

0.18
0.90
4.62
3.09
10.43
5.60
0.26
2.18

0.18
0.95
5.07
3.20
10.69
5.62
0.24
2.34

0.18
0.99
5.42
3.31
10.83
5.71
0.23
2.55

0.18
0.97
5.58
3.46
11.13
5.77
0.21
2.66

0.18
1.01
5.65
3.63
11.36
5.86
0.20
2.77

0.18
1.02
5.55
3.80
11.80
5.94
0.18
2.88

0.18
1.03
5.56
3.98
12.03
6.09
0.17
2.99

0.19
1.04
5.55
4.18
12.30
6.23
0.15
3.10

0.19
1.07
5.59
4.38
12.43
6.40
0.14
3.21

United States

3.47

3.64

3.79

3.82

3.88

3.94

4.01

4.05

4.10

4.15

4.18

4.21

Total exports

29.54

30.47

32.20

33.54

34.66

35.72

36.60

37.47

38.33

39.22

40.12

41.00

10.8

10.7

10.6

10.4

10.3

Percent
U.S. trade share
11.7
12.0
1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.
2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.
3/ Excludes South Africa
4/ Includes unaccounted.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

11.8

11.4

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

11.2

11.0

10.9

53

Table 10. Soybean trade long-term projections


2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Imports, million metric tons


Importers
European Union1
Japan
South Korea
Taiw an
Mexico
Former Soviet Union2
Other Europe
China
Malaysia
Indonesia
Other

12.9
3.4
1.2
2.5
3.5
1.0
0.5
50.3
0.6
1.6
15.2

13.5
3.5
1.2
2.5
3.6
1.2
0.5
57.0
0.6
1.6
11.9

13.5
3.6
1.2
2.5
3.7
1.2
0.5
60.7
0.6
1.7
12.1

13.1
3.4
1.2
2.5
3.8
1.3
0.5
64.0
0.6
1.7
12.4

12.9
3.3
1.2
2.5
3.9
1.4
0.5
66.9
0.6
1.7
12.8

12.7
3.3
1.2
2.5
4.0
1.4
0.5
70.1
0.6
1.8
13.1

12.5
3.3
1.2
2.5
4.1
1.5
0.5
73.2
0.7
1.8
13.5

12.3
3.2
1.3
2.5
4.1
1.5
0.5
76.4
0.7
1.9
13.9

12.1
3.2
1.3
2.5
4.2
1.6
0.5
79.4
0.7
1.9
14.2

11.9
3.1
1.3
2.5
4.3
1.6
0.5
82.4
0.7
2.0
14.6

11.7
3.1
1.3
2.5
4.4
1.6
0.5
85.4
0.7
2.0
15.0

11.5
3.0
1.3
2.5
4.5
1.7
0.5
88.3
0.7
2.0
15.3

92.7

97.2

101.4

104.5

107.8

111.3

114.7

118.3

121.6

124.9

128.3

131.5

13.0
28.6
7.3
0.2
2.8

13.0
31.4
6.4
0.5
3.2

13.7
33.6
7.2
0.5
3.6

14.8
34.5
7.4
0.5
3.6

15.1
36.2
7.8
0.5
3.7

15.6
37.9
8.0
0.5
3.8

16.1
40.0
8.5
0.5
3.9

16.7
41.9
8.9
0.5
3.9

17.1
43.9
9.4
0.5
4.1

17.5
45.9
9.9
0.5
4.2

17.5
48.0
10.5
0.5
4.3

17.9
49.5
11.1
0.5
4.4

United States

40.9

42.7

42.9

43.7

44.5

45.4

45.9

46.4

46.7

47.1

47.5

48.0

Total exports

92.7

97.2

101.4

104.5

107.8

111.3

114.7

118.3

121.6

124.9

128.3

131.5

39.2

38.4

37.7

37.0

36.5

Total imports

Exporters
Argentina
Brazil
Other South America
China
Other foreign

Exports, million metric tons

Percent
U.S. trade share

44.1

44.0

42.3

41.8

41.3

40.8

40.0

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.


2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

54

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 11. Soybean meal trade long-term projections


2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Imports, million metric tons


Importers
European Union1

21.8

23.3

23.6

24.0

24.4

24.8

25.2

25.6

26.0

26.3

26.7

27.1

0.7
0.6
1.1
2.1
9.6
1.2
5.6
5.8
4.6

0.7
0.7
1.2
2.1
10.2
1.4
6.1
6.2
5.1

0.6
0.7
1.2
2.2
10.1
1.4
6.3
6.6
5.0

0.7
0.7
1.2
2.3
10.4
1.5
6.5
6.8
5.1

0.7
0.7
1.2
2.3
10.8
1.5
6.7
7.0
5.2

0.8
0.7
1.2
2.3
11.2
1.6
7.0
7.2
5.3

0.8
0.7
1.3
2.4
11.5
1.6
7.2
7.4
5.3

0.8
0.7
1.3
2.4
11.9
1.6
7.4
7.5
5.5

0.9
0.7
1.3
2.5
12.3
1.7
7.6
7.7
5.5

0.9
0.7
1.4
2.5
12.6
1.7
7.9
7.9
5.6

1.0
0.7
1.4
2.5
13.0
1.7
8.1
8.0
5.7

1.0
0.7
1.4
2.6
13.4
1.8
8.3
8.2
5.7

53.1

56.8

57.8

59.3

60.6

62.0

63.4

64.8

66.1

67.5

68.8

70.1

24.7
13.0
2.3
1.2
3.0

29.6
12.8
2.3
1.2
3.5

29.5
12.6
2.3
1.2
3.4

30.5
13.3
2.4
1.2
3.1

31.4
13.6
2.4
1.2
3.1

32.7
13.8
2.4
1.2
2.9

33.8
14.1
2.4
1.3
2.8

34.9
14.3
2.5
1.3
2.5

36.2
14.5
2.5
1.3
2.3

37.5
14.8
2.6
1.3
2.0

38.7
15.0
2.6
1.4
1.8

40.0
15.3
2.7
1.4
1.5

0.5
0.5

0.5
0.5

0.5
0.5

0.5
0.5

0.5
0.6

0.5
0.6

0.5
0.6

0.5
0.6

0.5
0.6

0.5
0.6

0.5
0.6

0.5
0.7

United States

10.1

8.3

7.8

7.8

7.9

7.9

7.9

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

Total exports

55.2

58.5

57.7

59.3

60.6

62.0

63.4

64.8

66.1

67.5

68.8

70.1

12.5

12.6

12.3

12.1

11.9

11.6

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

Former Soviet Union2


Other Europe
Canada
Japan
Southeast Asia
Mexico
Other Latin America
North Africa & Middle East
Other
Total imports

Exporters
Argentina
Brazil
Other South America
China
India
European Union1
Other foreign

Exports, million metric tons

Percent
U.S. trade share

18.3

14.1

13.5

13.2

13.0

12.7

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.


2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

Table 12. Soybean oil trade long-term projections


2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2020/21

Imports, million metric tons


Importers
China
India
Other Asia
Latin America
North Africa & Middle East

1.5
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.6

2.0
1.3
1.2
1.7
1.7

2.0
1.2
1.2
1.7
1.7

1.7
1.3
1.2
1.8
1.8

1.6
1.3
1.2
1.9
1.8

1.6
1.4
1.3
1.9
1.9

1.5
1.4
1.3
2.0
1.9

1.5
1.5
1.3
2.0
2.0

1.4
1.5
1.4
2.1
2.0

1.4
1.6
1.4
2.2
2.1

1.3
1.6
1.4
2.2
2.1

1.2
1.7
1.5
2.3
2.2

European Union1
Other

0.6
1.0

0.6
1.1

0.6
0.9

0.6
0.9

0.7
0.9

0.8
0.9

0.8
0.9

0.9
1.0

1.0
1.0

1.0
1.0

1.1
1.0

1.2
1.0

Total imports

9.1

9.5

9.3

9.3

9.5

9.7

10.0

10.2

10.4

10.6

10.8

11.1

4.4
1.4

5.3
1.3

5.4
1.3

5.4
1.4

5.6
1.5

5.8
1.5

5.9
1.6

6.0
1.6

6.1
1.7

6.3
1.8

6.3
1.8

6.4
1.9

European Union1
Other foreign

0.4
1.3

0.3
1.3

0.3
1.4

0.3
1.5

0.3
1.5

0.3
1.5

0.3
1.5

0.3
1.5

0.3
1.6

0.3
1.6

0.3
1.6

0.3
1.7

United States

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

Total exports

9.1

9.5

9.3

9.3

9.5

9.7

10.0

10.2

10.4

10.6

10.8

11.1

6.4

6.7

6.9

6.9

7.0

7.0

Exporters
Argentina
Brazil

Exports, million metric tons

Percent
U.S. trade share
16.9
1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

13.0

9.5

7.4

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

6.2

6.1

55

Table 13. Rapeseed trade long-term projections


2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Imports, million metric tons


Importers
European Union1
Japan
Mexico
China
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Other foreign

2.2
2.3
1.3
2.2
0.2
0.8
1.4

2.1
2.2
1.2
1.9
0.2
0.7
1.0

2.6
2.2
1.2
1.8
0.2
0.7
0.8

3.1
2.2
1.2
1.8
0.2
0.8
0.8

3.4
2.2
1.2
1.9
0.2
0.8
0.9

3.7
2.2
1.2
2.0
0.2
0.8
0.9

4.0
2.2
1.3
2.0
0.2
0.8
0.9

4.2
2.2
1.3
2.2
0.2
0.8
0.9

4.6
2.2
1.4
2.2
0.2
0.9
1.0

4.8
2.2
1.4
2.5
0.2
0.9
1.0

5.1
2.2
1.5
2.6
0.2
0.9
1.1

5.3
2.2
1.6
2.8
0.2
0.9
1.2

0.6

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

10.9

9.7

10.2

10.8

11.3

11.7

12.2

12.7

13.3

13.9

14.5

15.1

7.2
0.1
1.8

6.4
0.0
1.3

6.6
0.1
1.8

6.7
0.1
2.2

6.8
0.2
2.5

7.0
0.2
2.8

7.1
0.2
3.0

7.4
0.2
3.2

7.7
0.3
3.4

8.0
0.3
3.6

8.3
0.3
3.8

8.6
0.4
4.0

Other Former Soviet Union

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Australia
Other foreign

1.3
0.2

1.5
0.1

1.2
0.1

1.2
0.1

1.2
0.2

1.2
0.2

1.2
0.2

1.2
0.2

1.3
0.2

1.3
0.2

1.3
0.2

1.3
0.3

United States

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

10.9

9.7

10.2

10.8

11.3

11.7

12.2

12.7

13.3

13.9

14.5

15.1

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

United States
Total imports

Exporters
Canada
Russia
Ukraine

Total exports

Exports, million metric tons

Percent
U.S. trade share
1.9
3.3
1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

56

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 14. All cotton trade long-term projections


2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Imports, million bales


Importers
European Union1

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

Former Soviet Union2


Brazil
Mexico
Japan
South Korea
China
Indonesia
Thailand
Pakistan
India
Bangladesh
Taiw an
Other Asia & Oceania
Turkey
Other

0.7
0.2
1.4
0.3
1.0
10.9
2.1
1.8
1.4
0.6
3.8
1.0
2.7
4.4
2.4

0.7
0.8
1.3
0.3
1.0
15.0
1.9
1.6
1.7
0.5
3.9
1.0
2.5
3.1
2.6

0.7
0.3
1.3
0.3
1.0
16.5
2.0
1.7
1.9
0.5
4.2
1.0
2.7
3.5
1.8

0.7
0.3
1.3
0.3
1.0
17.6
2.0
1.8
2.0
0.6
4.3
1.0
2.8
3.2
1.8

0.7
0.3
1.4
0.3
0.9
18.8
2.0
1.8
2.2
0.6
4.4
1.0
2.9
3.0
1.9

0.7
0.3
1.4
0.3
0.9
19.6
2.0
1.8
2.1
0.6
4.6
1.0
3.0
2.9
2.0

0.7
0.3
1.4
0.3
0.9
20.1
2.0
1.9
2.2
0.7
4.8
0.9
3.1
2.9
2.1

0.7
0.3
1.4
0.3
0.9
20.5
2.0
1.9
2.3
0.7
5.0
0.9
3.2
2.9
2.1

0.7
0.3
1.4
0.3
0.9
20.8
2.1
1.9
2.3
0.7
5.2
0.9
3.3
2.9
2.1

0.7
0.3
1.4
0.3
0.9
21.0
2.1
2.0
2.3
0.7
5.4
0.9
3.4
2.9
2.2

0.7
0.3
1.4
0.3
0.8
21.2
2.1
2.0
2.4
0.7
5.6
0.9
3.4
3.0
2.2

0.6
0.3
1.4
0.3
0.8
21.5
2.1
1.0
2.4
0.7
5.9
0.8
3.5
3.0
3.3

Total imports

35.6

38.8

40.6

41.8

43.3

44.4

45.2

45.9

46.4

46.9

47.4

47.9

Exports, million bales

Exporters
2

5.9
2.1
0.1
2.0
0.1
0.7
6.6
0.3
3.8
2.0

5.9
2.9
0.3
2.4
0.2
0.3
4.8
0.2
4.0
2.1

5.7
3.5
0.5
3.0
0.2
0.3
5.7
0.4
4.0
1.7

5.7
3.5
0.4
3.6
0.2
0.2
6.0
0.4
4.4
1.7

6.1
3.6
0.4
4.0
0.2
0.2
6.1
0.3
4.9
1.7

6.3
3.8
0.4
4.4
0.2
0.2
6.1
0.4
5.3
1.7

6.6
3.8
0.4
4.7
0.2
0.2
5.9
0.4
5.6
1.7

6.8
3.9
0.4
5.1
0.2
0.2
5.5
0.4
5.8
1.7

6.8
4.0
0.5
5.4
0.2
0.2
5.3
0.4
6.0
1.7

6.9
4.1
0.5
5.6
0.2
0.2
5.2
0.4
6.1
1.7

6.9
4.1
0.5
5.8
0.3
0.2
5.0
0.4
6.3
1.7

7.0
4.2
0.5
6.0
0.3
0.2
5.0
0.4
6.4
1.7

United States

12.0

15.8

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.7

15.8

15.9

16.0

16.1

16.2

Total exports

35.6

38.8

40.6

41.8

43.3

44.4

45.2

45.9

46.4

46.9

47.4

47.9

34.7

34.4

34.3

34.1

34.0

33.9

Former Soviet Union


Australia
Argentina
Brazil
Other Latin America
Pakistan
India
Egypt
Sub-Saharan Africa3
Other foreign

Percent
U.S. trade share
33.8
40.5
1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.
2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.
3/ Includes South Africa.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

38.3

37.2

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

36.0

35.1

57

Table 15. Beef trade long-term projections


2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight


Importers
Japan
South Korea
Taiw an
Philippines

697
315
112
123

695
345
135
150

704
350
140
160

679
360
141
166

662
370
142
171

673
375
144
180

675
380
146
187

682
388
147
192

691
391
148
197

707
394
148
201

713
397
149
209

724
400
149
215

497
895
63
180
690
322
247

490
940
65
190
846
335
235

490
950
69
210
878
330
245

488
955
68
217
874
357
247

485
924
69
221
898
403
249

483
881
70
226
922
439
251

480
875
71
229
948
462
253

478
877
71
231
973
476
255

476
887
72
233
996
491
257

473
904
72
235
1,016
499
259

471
918
73
238
1,036
512
261

468
929
73
240
1,057
533
263

United States

1,191

1,119

1,152

1,252

1,270

1,300

1,329

1,359

1,388

1,417

1,447

1,476

Major importers

5,332

5,545

5,678

5,803

5,863

5,942

6,034

6,127

6,226

6,325

6,423

6,528

European Union1
Russia
Other Europe
Egypt
Other N. Africa & M. East
Mexico
Canada

Exporters
Australia
New Zealand
Other Asia

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight


1,364
514
666

1,325
510
762

1,325
496
784

1,329
500
800

1,323
499
810

1,330
505
819

1,336
511
840

1,343
514
857

1,350
516
883

1,357
520
901

1,362
523
920

1,369
527
938

148
655
1,596
480

160
300
1,675
525

160
300
1,810
530

159
233
1,846
512

161
208
1,903
499

160
207
1,934
508

156
234
1,960
524

158
266
1,986
535

161
302
2,013
542

163
350
2,038
547

166
404
2,064
548

166
460
2,090
553

878

1,049

1,030

1,089

1,181

1,231

1,263

1,287

1,312

1,338

1,364

1,392

Major exporters
6,301
6,306
6,435
1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

6,467

6,583

6,695

6,824

6,946

7,079

7,213

7,352

7,494

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

European Union1
Argentina
Brazil
Canada
United States

Table 16. Pork trade long-term projections


2009
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight


Importers
Japan
China
Hong Kong
South Korea
Russia
Mexico
Canada

1,138
270
369
390
845
678
180

1,150
350
370
380
850
685
200

1,157
370
380
410
850
690
230

1,182
373
392
412
848
724
232

1,189
387
398
427
847
772
234

1,190
397
405
438
837
803
235

1,189
407
414
451
803
837
236

1,185
418
422
463
756
881
237

1,186
434
430
477
709
919
238

1,189
443
439
493
652
960
238

1,190
452
447
505
588
1,002
238

1,190
457
456
520
516
1,047
238

United States

378

394

406

413

422

433

445

456

467

479

490

501

Major importers

4,248

4,379

4,493

4,574

4,675

4,738

4,781

4,817

4,860

4,894

4,911

4,924

Exporters
Brazil
Canada
Mexico
European Union1
China

707
1,123
70
1,415
232

625
1,165
80
1,700
250

631
1,167
85
1,550
280

639
1,112
86
1,563
309

663
1,136
87
1,584
329

667
1,158
88
1,594
342

669
1,171
90
1,598
355

676
1,186
91
1,583
370

684
1,199
91
1,583
380

693
1,208
92
1,569
392

702
1,213
93
1,555
405

710
1,211
94
1,535
419

United States

1,857

1,981

2,121

2,170

2,215

2,268

2,325

2,370

2,409

2,448

2,488

2,530

Major exporters

5,404

5,801

5,834

5,880

6,014

6,118

6,207

6,275

6,346

6,402

6,455

6,499

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.


The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

58

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 17. Poultry trade long-term projections 1


2009
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Imports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook


Importers
Russia

954

500

610

543

300

200

187

176

166

157

149

143

European Union2
Other Europe
Canada
Mexico
Central America/Caribbean
Japan
Hong Kong
China
South Korea
Saudi Arabia
Other N. Africa & M. East
Sub-Saharan Africa

831
29
138
636
289
645
253
428
71
604
1,234
703

795
25
133
670
308
745
280
351
90
630
1,198
780

825
26
138
700
320
760
325
325
90
680
1,266
782

833
26
140
740
340
735
344
305
88
701
1,277
798

842
26
141
785
365
742
357
308
88
727
1,329
814

850
26
143
810
390
746
366
316
90
751
1,383
831

859
26
145
845
405
743
375
323
90
771
1,437
848

867
26
147
880
420
747
385
333
92
792
1,483
865

876
25
148
915
435
747
390
344
94
810
1,536
883

885
25
150
960
455
746
396
352
97
830
1,586
901

893
25
152
1,005
475
745
401
363
101
847
1,640
920

902
25
154
1,050
498
743
407
376
104
866
1,692
939

Major importers

6,815

6,505

6,847

6,869

6,824

6,902

7,053

7,211

7,370

7,539

7,716

7,897

Exports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook

Exporters
European Union2
Brazil
China
Thailand

889
3,386
291
379

950
3,514
380
410

945
3,567
410
440

925
3,570
476
484

931
3,431
480
497

935
3,454
482
503

935
3,539
495
512

927
3,621
497
525

922
3,742
503
541

917
3,862
506
555

914
3,998
512
567

908
4,116
516
579

United States

3,335

3,182

3,265

3,087

3,139

3,176

3,225

3,263

3,285

3,309

3,344

3,387

Major exporters
8,280
8,436
1/ Broilers and turkeys only.
2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.
The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

8,627

8,541

8,478

8,549

8,706

8,833

8,993

9,150

9,335

9,506

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

59

U.S. Crops
Near-term adjustments in the U.S. crops sector reflect market responses to relatively high prices
that have resulted from the 2010 global wheat production shortfall (largely in Russia), reduced
U.S. corn yields, and strong global demand for soybeans and cotton. Over the longer run, global
economic recovery with steady growth provides an improved foundation for crop demand.
Despite some growth potential from the E15 (15-percent ethanol blend) market, increases in
corn-based ethanol production in the United States are projected to slow. Nonetheless, the large
expansion in recent years keeps corn use for ethanol high. In combination, these factors support
longer run increases in global consumption and trade. Prices fall from current high levels, but
remain at historically high levels for many crops.
Projections for field crops reflect provisions of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008
(2008 Farm Act), which are assumed to continue through the projection period. Acreage enrolled
in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has fallen from more than 36 million acres to about
31.4 million acres and is projected to remain close to 32 million acres throughout the projections.
This reduction in CRP acreage provides some additional cropland for potential use in production.
The 45-cents-per-gallon tax credit available to blenders of ethanol and the 54-cents-per-gallon
tariff on imported fuel ethanol are assumed to remain in effect through the end of the projection
period. The tax credit for blending biodiesel that had expired at the end of 2009 was not assumed
to be available because its reinstatement occurred after the projections were completed.
Current high prices lead to an increase in planted cropland in 2011, reaching 255 million acres for
the 8 major field crops, up from 245 million in 2010 and above the recent high of 253 million in
2008. Although prices and plantings decline over the next several years, strong demand continues
to keep prices historically high, providing economic incentives to hold projected plantings at 249250 million acres over the remainder of the projection period.
U.S. planted area: Eight major crops 1/
Million acres
300

275

250

225
1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1/ The eig ht major crops are co rn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice,
uplan d co tton, and so ybea ns.

60

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

U.S. corn: Feed and residual use, ethanol, and exports


Billion bushels
Feed and residual use
6
Ethanol
4

Exports

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Continuing high levels of domestic corn-based ethanol production and gains in exports keep corn
demand high. Strong producer returns keep corn acreage in a range of 90 to 92 million acres over
the projection period compared to 88 million in 2010. Acreage changes for other feed grains are
minimal.
Most ethanol production in the United States currently uses corn as the feedstock, with
about 36 percent of total corn use expected to go to ethanol production over the projection
period. Even with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys (EPAs) October 2010
announced approval for use of E15 in model year 2007 and newer passenger vehicles
(including cars, sport utility vehicles, and light pickup trucks), smaller gains for corn-based
ethanol are projected over the next 10 years than have occurred in recent years. This result
reflects only moderate growth in overall gasoline consumption in the United States, limited
potential for further market penetration of ethanol into the E10 (10-percent ethanol blend)
market, constraints in the E15 market, and the small size of the E85 (85-percent ethanol
blend) market. By the end of the projection period, corn-based ethanol production
represents more than 10 percent of annual gasoline consumption.
Feed and residual use of corn bottoms out in the initial years due to reduced meat
production and increased feeding of distillers grains, a coproduct of dry mill ethanol
production. Feed use rises through the rest of the projections as meat production picks up
and growth in the availability of distillers grains slows with the reduced pace of corn-based
ethanol expansion.
Food and industrial use of corn (other than for ethanol production) is projected to rise over
the next decade. Use of corn for high fructose corn syrup, glucose, and dextrose increases
at less than half the rate of population gain, limited by consumer dietary concerns and other
changes in tastes and preferences. Other food uses of corn are also projected to rise more
slowly than the increase in population. Starch use of corn responds to industrial demand,
rebounding as the U.S. economy recovers and rising faster than population throughout the
projection period.
U.S. corn exports rise in response to stronger global demand for feed grains to support
growth in meat production. Although lower than has been typical in the past, the U.S.
share of global corn trade remains above 50 percent in the projections.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

61

U.S. wheat: Domestic use and exports


Billion bushels
2.0

1.5

Domestic use

1.0
Exports
0.5

0.0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Strong wheat prices and expected net returns boost wheat plantings for 2011. However, with
relatively weak overall demand growth for wheat and continuing large stocks, producer returns fall
in subsequent years, leading to a decline in wheat plantings to about 51 million acres by the end of
the projection period.

62

Domestic demand for wheat reflects a relatively mature market. Food use of wheat is
projected to show moderate gains, generally in line with U.S. population increases.

Feed use of wheat, a lower value market for the crop, increases moderately into 2011/12
reflecting favorable prices relative to corn in the summer. For later years, wheat feed use
levels off at 175 million bushels per year as prices relative to corn allow some competition
of feed wheat with feed grains.

U.S. wheat exports are boosted in the near term due to relatively tight market conditions
following the 2010 production shortfall in Russia and other countries of the former Soviet
Union. In the longer run, U.S. wheat exports fall back to 900 million bushels annually and
remain flat over the projection period. U.S. wheat trade is limited in early years by large
exports from India to reduce their high stocks and later by renewed competition primarily
from the Black Sea region. Notably, Indias wheat exports reach as high as 3 million
metric tons (a 2.2-percent share of global wheat trade) in 2013/14 before dropping off to
negligible levels toward the end of the projections. Russias wheat exports rebound from
the drought-reduced low levels of 2010/11, rising to account for 15 percent of global trade
by the end of the decade. The EU market share declines from 17 percent in 2010/11 to
14 percent in 2020/21. For the same time period, the U.S. market share declines from
27 percent to 16 percent.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

U.S. soybeans: Domestic use and exports


Billion bushels
2.5

Domestic use

2.0

Exports

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

U.S. soybean plantings rise over the projection period as growth in both domestic and export
demand keep prices and producer returns favorable.

Reductions in U.S. livestock production and increased availability of distillers grains have
lowered demand for soybean meal for livestock feed in recent years, thereby reducing domestic
soybean crush. However, as meat production gains resume, soybean crush will follow.

Strong global demand for soybeans, particularly in China, supports increases in U.S. soybean
exports. Despite rapid import growth, continued competition from South America, particularly
Brazil, leads to a reduction in the U.S. share of global soybean trade from 44 percent in
2009/10 to about 37 percent toward the end of the projection period.

Strengthening competition from Argentina and Brazil, combined with increasing use for the
growing U.S. livestock sector, limit U.S. soybean meal exports in the projections. The U.S.
export share in global soybean meal trade would decline from 14 percent in 2010/11 to below
12 percent by 2020/21. U.S. soybean oil exports similarly face increasing competition from
South America. Argentina, in particular, is a competitive exporter of soybean oil because its
graduated export taxes favor exports of soybean products over soybeans.

Soybean oil used to produce methyl esters (biodiesel) grows to 3.6 billion pounds by the end of
the projection period, representing about 17 percent of total use of soybean oil and supporting
the production of close to 500 million gallons of biodiesel. Although some other first-use
vegetable oils are also used to produce biodiesel, most of the remaining biodiesel production
needed to reach the 1-billion-gallon use mandate of the 2007 Energy Act uses animal fats or
recycled vegetable oil as the feedstock. Exports of biodiesel will continue to be constrained by
the EUs anti-dumping and countervailing duties on U.S. shipments.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

63

U.S. farm-level prices: Corn, wheat, and soybeans


Dollars per bushel
12
Soybeans
10
8
Wheat

6
4

Corn
2
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

A number of short-term factors have led to high prices for grains and oilseeds in 2010/11,
including reduced global wheat production (especially in Russia), a decline in U.S. corn yields,
and strong global demand for soybeans. Although market responses to these prices are projected
to reduce prices over the next several years, U.S. prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans are
projected to remain historically high. The continuing influence of several factors, including global
economic growth, a depreciating dollar, escalating costs for crude petroleum, and rising biofuel
production, underlie these crop price projections over the long term.

64

Although corn prices fall from their current high levels, they are projected to remain
historically high due to continued demand for corn for ethanol production as well as growth
in feed use and exports.

Strengthening demand for soybeans and soybean products holds soybean prices high
throughout the projections.

Wheat prices decline from 2011/12 to 2015/16 and then are projected to rise moderately
over the rest of the decade. Despite gains in wheat yields, declining acreage and increasing
demand gradually reduce stocks.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

U.S. rice: Domestic and residual use and exports


Million hundredweight
160
Domestic and residual use

140
120

Exports

100
80
60
40
20
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

U.S. planted area to rice is projected to fall over the next couple of years from 2010s near-record
in response to declining expected producer returns and increased competition for land from other
crops. Plantings then increase marginally after 2012 as producer returns improve. Continued
expansion in U.S. food use of rice is projected over the next decade. U.S. rice exports increase as
well, but somewhat slower than overall growth in global rice trade.

Domestic use of rice is projected to grow slightly faster than population growth. Imports of
aromatic varieties of rice from Asia account for a growing share of domestic use in the
projections.

U.S. rice exports are projected to increase, reflecting a lower U.S. price difference over
Asian competitors price than in recent years. Nonetheless, export growth falls short of the
pace of overall rice trade gains, so the U.S. market share declines. Rough rice exports to
Latin America are expected to continue increasing, and account for most of the U.S. export
expansion.

Stocks of rice fall from initially large levels, reducing the stocks-to-use ratio to a more
sustainable level of about 13 percent by the end of the projection period.

Global rice prices have fallen from the highs of 2008/09 and are expected to continue
dropping through 2013/14. Global prices then increase about 2 percent per year, reaching
nearly $12 per hundredweight (rough basis) at the end of the projection period. These price
increases largely reflect tightening global stocks of rice, which is due to slow yield growth
and limited ability to expand area in most producing countries. This effect is partially
offset by declining global per capita disappearance of rice, caused largely by dietary shifts
away from staple foods in Asia as incomes rise.

U.S. rice prices follow a pattern similar to global prices, continuing their fall from the
record high in 2008/09 for the next couple of years, before rising in the latter years of the
projections. By the end of the projection period, U.S. rice prices are approaching $14 per
hundredweight.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

65

U.S. upland cotton: Domestic mill use and exports


Million bales
18
16

Exports

14
12
10
8
6
Domestic mill use

4
2
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

High cotton prices lead to a large increase in cotton plantings in 2011, but plantings subsequently
decline moderately as lower prices reduce returns. U.S. mill use of upland cotton continues to
decline throughout the projections while cotton exports rise.

66

The decline in mill use of cotton is projected to continue over the next decade. At the end
of the projection period, domestic mill use is projected to represent less than 16 percent of
total use. Underlying this projection is an increase in apparel imports by the United States
over the next 10 years, reducing domestic apparel production and lowering the apparel
industrys demand for fabric and yarn produced in the United States.

U.S. upland cotton exports rebounded in 2010/11 in response to strong global trade demand
and facilitated by increased U.S. cotton plantings and production, boosting the U.S. trade
share to over 40 percent. After falling back slightly during the first half of the projection
period, continued strong global demand leads to moderate gains in U.S. cotton exports
through the rest of the decade. Nonetheless, export gains are slower than global trade
increases, so the U.S. share of world cotton trade falls to about 34 percent by 2020/21.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

U.S. sugar: Domestic production, use, and imports


Million short tons
12

Domestic use

10
8

Production

6
4

Im ports

2
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Cr op year

The two primary determinants of U.S. sugar supply and use over the long-term projection period are the
implementation of the sugar and energy provisions of the 2008 Farm Act and reliance on sugar imports
from Mexico to maintain balance in the U.S. sugar market. The projections assume that sugar tariff-rate
quotas are not increased above initial levels and that U.S. policymakers aim for an ending year stocks-touse ratio of 13.5 percent. Mexico is assumed to export sugar to the United States to meet this level.
Sugar provisions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) removed all duties and
quantitative restrictions on sweetener trade between Mexico and the United States as of January 1,
2008. Mexican exportable sugar supplies are expected to rise as a result of increased use of high
fructose corn syrup (mostly imported from the United States) that displaces sugar in beverage and
food manufacturing end uses in Mexico. As a consequence, Mexicos sugar exports to the higherpriced U.S. market grow over the decade and represent more than 15 percent of U.S. supplies at the
end of the projection period, up from about 8 percent in 2010/11. The projections assume that
Mexico will import sugar from the lower-priced world market when necessary to assure sufficient
supplies to meet their domestic consumption requirements.
Projected growth in U.S. beet and cane sugar production is low over the next decade. Beet sugar
production averages 4.715 million short tons, raw value (STRV) over 2011/12 to 2020/21 and cane
sugar production averages 3.567 million STRV. As a result, sugar production averages only
72 percent of domestic consumption, far below the 85-percent minimum allotment level.
Deliveries of sugar for human use rebound in 2012/13 from the small changes in the prior 2 years.
Gains over the remainder of the projections average 0.8 percent per year, slightly less than
population growth.
There are no sugar loan forfeitures in the projections nor any CCC purchases of sugar for ethanol
for use in the Feedstock Flexibility Program. With an annual stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent,
raw cane and refined beet sugar prices are above the minimum prices to avoid forfeiture for the
entire projection period. Sugar refining capacity is sufficient to keep refined sugar prices from
rising. The long term equilibrium world raw sugar price is assumed to equal 16 cents per pound
historically high, but not high enough to exert upward pressure on U.S. raw and refined sugar
prices.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

67

Value of U.S. horticultural trade


Billion dollars
60
50

Im ports

40
30
Exports

20
10
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Fiscal year

Farm sales of horticultural crops are projected to grow by 1.5 percent annually over the next
decade, reaching $67.4 billion in calendar year 2020, up from $58 billion in 2010.

68

Vegetables and melons, which rank first in farm sales value at 38 percent of the total, are projected
to grow at 1.7 percent annually. Fruits and tree nuts are expected to increase slightly faster at 1.8
percent per year, while greenhouse and nursery crops grow at 0.8 percent.
The volume of farm production of horticultural crops is forecast to rise by 0.7 percent annually.
Vegetables and melons lead production growth at 0.8 percent, reaching 150 billion pounds in 2020.
Fruit and nut production expands by 0.6 percent per year to 66 billion pounds in 2020.
Producer prices for vegetables are expected to rise at 0.9 percent per year. Producer prices for fruits
rise by 1.3 percent per year due to somewhat slower production growth than vegetables.
U.S. per capita use of fruits and tree nuts is forecast to increase from 267 pounds in 2010 to 279
pounds by 2020, an annual change of 0.4 percent. Per capita use of vegetables is anticipated to
grow from 425 pounds in 2010 to 436 in 2020, up an average of 0.3 percent per year. The total
supply of fruits and vegetables over the next decade, both domestic and imported, is projected to
grow at an average rate of 1.2 percent per year.
U.S. horticultural import value is projected to increase by 4.8 percent annually over the next decade
after increasing by 8 percent on average in the past decade. Imports of fresh fruits and vegetables
will largely drive this growth. The import value of vegetables is expected to expand faster than for
fruits and nuts due to relatively greater import demand for vegetables.
The U.S. trade deficit in horticultural crops and products expands from $13 billion in fiscal year
2010 to $22.6 billion in 2020. Of the $34 billion total U.S. exports of horticultural products in
2020, fruits and nuts contribute $15.9 billion and vegetables account for $7.1 billion. Total imports
of about $56.9 billion in 2020 include $18.3 billion worth of fruits and nuts, and $14.6 billion of
fresh and processed vegetables.
Imports increasingly supplement the domestic supply of horticultural crops and products. In terms
of farm weight, imports of fruits and nuts will account for 45 percent of domestic use by 2020, up
from 42 percent in 2010. Imported vegetables are projected to represent 24 percent of domestic use
in 2020, an increase from 20 percent in 2010.
The export market also becomes increasingly important for U.S. horticulture products, although
relative gains are smaller than for imports. Exports represent more than a quarter of fruits and nuts
production in 2020 while about 16 percent of vegetable production will be sold abroad, each up
about 1 percentage point from 2010.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 18. Acreage for major field crops and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) assumptions, long-term projections
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

2019

2020

Million acres
Planted acreage, eight major crops
Corn
Sorghum
Barley
Oats
Wheat
Rice
Upland cotton
Soybeans
Total

86.5
6.6
3.6
3.4
59.2
3.1
9.0
77.5

88.2
5.4
2.9
3.1
53.6
3.6
10.8
77.7

92.0
6.0
3.2
3.0
57.0
3.3
12.8
78.0

91.5
6.0
3.2
3.0
55.5
3.2
12.5
78.3

91.0
6.0
3.2
3.0
54.0
3.2
12.2
78.5

90.5
6.0
3.2
3.0
53.0
3.2
12.0
79.0

90.5
6.0
3.2
3.0
52.0
3.3
11.9
79.0

90.5
6.0
3.2
3.0
51.5
3.3
11.8
79.5

91.0
6.0
3.2
3.0
51.5
3.3
11.8
79.5

91.5
6.0
3.2
3.0
51.5
3.3
11.7
79.5

92.0
6.0
3.2
3.0
51.0
3.3
11.7
79.5

92.0
6.0
3.2
3.0
51.0
3.3
11.6
79.5

248.9

245.3

255.3

253.2

251.1

249.9

248.9

248.8

249.3

249.7

249.7

249.6

33.7

31.4

31.9

31.9

31.9

31.9

31.9

32.0

31.9

31.9

31.9

31.9

282.6

276.7

287.2

285.0

283.0

281.9

280.8

280.8

281.2

281.6

281.6

281.5

CRP acreage assumptions


Total CRP
Total planted plus CRP

Harvested acreage, eight major crops


Corn
Sorghum
Barley
Oats
Wheat
Rice
Upland cotton
Soybeans
Total

79.6
5.5
3.1
1.4
49.9
3.1
7.4
76.4

81.3
4.7
2.5
1.3
47.6
3.6
10.6
76.8

84.9
5.2
2.8
1.2
48.5
3.3
11.3
77.1

84.4
5.2
2.8
1.2
47.2
3.2
11.1
77.3

83.9
5.2
2.8
1.2
45.9
3.2
10.9
77.6

83.4
5.2
2.8
1.2
45.1
3.2
10.7
78.1

83.4
5.2
2.8
1.2
44.2
3.3
10.5
78.1

83.4
5.2
2.8
1.2
43.8
3.3
10.5
78.5

83.9
5.2
2.8
1.2
43.8
3.3
10.5
78.5

84.4
5.2
2.8
1.2
43.8
3.3
10.4
78.5

84.9
5.2
2.8
1.2
43.4
3.3
10.4
78.5

84.9
5.2
2.8
1.2
43.4
3.3
10.3
78.5

226.4

228.4

234.3

232.4

230.7

229.7

228.7

228.7

229.2

229.6

229.7

229.6

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

69

Table 19. U.S. corn long-term projections


Item
2009/10 2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Area (million acres):


Planted acres
Harvested acres

86.5
79.6

88.2
81.3

92.0
84.9

91.5
84.4

91.0
83.9

90.5
83.4

90.5
83.4

90.5
83.4

91.0
83.9

91.5
84.4

92.0
84.9

92.0
84.9

164.7

154.3

162.0

164.0

166.0

168.0

170.0

172.0

174.0

176.0

178.0

180.0

1,673
13,110
8
14,792

1,708
12,540
10
14,257

827
13,755
10
14,592

1,127
13,840
10
14,977

1,332
13,925
10
15,267

1,437
14,010
10
15,457

1,447
14,180
10
15,637

1,442
14,345
10
15,797

1,342
14,600
10
15,952

1,262
14,855
10
16,127

1,227
15,110
10
16,347

1,242
15,280
10
16,532

5,159
5,938

5,300
6,180

5,200
6,265

5,300
6,320

5,400
6,380

5,500
6,435

5,600
6,495

5,700
6,605

5,750
6,740

5,800
6,850

5,875
6,930

5,950
6,990

4,568
11,097
1,987
13,084

4,800
11,480
1,950
13,430

4,875
11,465
2,000
13,465

4,925
11,620
2,025
13,645

4,975
11,780
2,050
13,830

5,025
11,935
2,075
14,010

5,075
12,095
2,100
14,195

5,175
12,305
2,150
14,455

5,300
12,490
2,200
14,690

5,400
12,650
2,250
14,900

5,475
12,805
2,300
15,105

5,525
12,940
2,350
15,290

1,708
13.1

827
6.2

1,127
8.4

1,332
9.8

1,437
10.4

1,447
10.3

1,442
10.2

1,342
9.3

1,262
8.6

1,227
8.2

1,242
8.2

1,242
8.1

3.55

5.20

4.80

4.30

4.10

4.10

4.10

4.15

4.20

4.25

4.25

4.25

287
1.86

304
1.87

310
1.89

314
1.89

318
1.90

323
1.90

329
1.91

335
1.93

341
1.94

347
1.95

353
1.96

Net returns
286
515
474
Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn.

395

367

370

374

384

396

407

410

412

Yields (bushels per acre):


Yield/harvested acre

Supply and use (million bushels):


Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Supply
Feed & residual
Food, seed, & industrial
Ethanol for fuel
Domestic use
Exports
Total use
Ending stocks
Stocks/use ratio, percent
Price (dollars per bushel):
Farm price

Variable costs of production (dollars):


Per acre
Per bushel

299
1.82

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

70

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 20. U.S. sorghum long-term projections


Item
2009/10 2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Area (million acres):


Planted acres
Harvested acres

6.6
5.5

5.4
4.7

6.0
5.2

6.0
5.2

6.0
5.2

6.0
5.2

6.0
5.2

6.0
5.2

6.0
5.2

6.0
5.2

6.0
5.2

6.0
5.2

69.4

72.5

65.3

65.3

65.3

65.3

65.3

65.3

65.3

65.3

65.3

65.3

Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Supply

55
383
0
438

41
338
0
379

39
340
0
379

44
340
0
384

44
340
0
384

44
340
0
384

44
340
0
384

44
340
0
384

44
340
0
384

44
340
0
384

44
340
0
384

44
340
0
384

Feed & residual


Food, seed, & industrial
Domestic use
Exports
Total use

140
90
230
166
396

90
90
180
160
340

80
90
170
165
335

80
90
170
170
340

75
90
165
175
340

70
90
160
180
340

65
90
155
185
340

60
90
150
190
340

55
90
145
195
340

50
90
140
200
340

45
90
135
205
340

40
90
130
210
340

Ending stocks
Stocks/use ratio, percent

41
10.4

39
11.5

44
13.1

44
12.9

44
12.9

44
12.9

44
12.9

44
12.9

44
12.9

44
12.9

44
12.9

44
12.9

3.22

5.30

4.35

3.95

3.80

3.80

3.80

3.85

3.90

3.95

3.95

3.95

149
2.06

157
2.41

161
2.47

164
2.51

166
2.55

169
2.59

172
2.64

175
2.68

178
2.73

181
2.78

185
2.83

Net returns
78
235
127
Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum.

97

84

82

79

79

80

80

77

73

Yields (bushels per acre):


Yield/harvested acre
Supply and use (million bushels):

Price (dollars per bushel):


Farm price

Variable costs of production (dollars):


Per acre
Per bushel

146
2.10

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

71

Table 21. U.S. barley long-term projections


Item
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Area (million acres):
Planted acres
Harvested acres

3.6
3.1

2.9
2.5

3.2
2.8

3.2
2.8

3.2
2.8

3.2
2.8

3.2
2.8

3.2
2.8

3.2
2.8

3.2
2.8

3.2
2.8

3.2
2.8

73.0

73.1

67.4

68.0

68.6

69.2

69.7

70.3

70.9

71.5

72.1

72.7

Yields (bushels per acre):


Yield/harvested acre

Supply and use (million bushels):


Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Supply

89
227
17
333

115
180
15
311

86
189
20
295

80
190
20
290

80
192
20
292

82
194
20
296

81
195
20
296

81
197
20
298

82
199
20
301

80
200
20
300

79
202
20
301

80
204
20
304

Feed & residual


Food, seed, & industrial
Domestic
Exports
Total use

48
164
212
6
217

50
165
215
10
225

40
165
205
10
215

35
165
200
10
210

35
165
200
10
210

40
165
205
10
215

40
165
205
10
215

40
166
206
10
216

45
166
211
10
221

45
166
211
10
221

45
166
211
10
221

45
166
211
10
221

Ending stocks
Stocks/use ratio, percent

115
53.0

86
38.2

80
37.2

80
38.1

82
39.0

81
37.7

81
37.7

82
38.0

80
36.2

79
35.7

80
36.2

83
37.6

4.66

4.00

4.70

4.95

4.75

4.70

4.75

4.80

4.85

4.90

4.90

4.90

141
1.93

149
2.21

152
2.24

155
2.25

157
2.27

160
2.29

163
2.32

166
2.34

169
2.36

172
2.39

175
2.41

168

184

171

168

171

175

178

181

181

181

Price (dollars per bushel):


Farm price

Variable costs of production (dollars):


Per acre
Per bushel

143
1.96

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):


Net returns
197
151
Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for barley.

72

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 22. U.S. oats long-term projections


Item
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Area (million acres):
Planted acres
Harvested acres

3.4
1.4

3.1
1.3

3.0
1.2

3.0
1.2

3.0
1.2

3.0
1.2

3.0
1.2

3.0
1.2

3.0
1.2

3.0
1.2

3.0
1.2

3.0
1.2

67.5

64.3

65.0

65.4

65.8

66.2

66.6

67.0

67.5

67.9

68.3

68.7

Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Supply

84
93
95
272

80
81
80
242

48
78
110
236

47
78
105
230

46
79
100
225

45
79
100
224

44
80
100
224

44
80
100
224

43
81
100
224

43
81
100
224

43
82
100
225

43
82
100
225

Feed & residual


Food, seed, & industrial
Domestic
Exports
Total use

115
75
190
2
192

115
76
191
3
194

110
76
186
3
189

105
76
181
3
184

100
77
177
3
180

100
77
177
3
180

100
77
177
3
180

100
78
178
3
181

100
78
178
3
181

100
78
178
3
181

100
79
179
3
182

100
79
179
3
182

Ending stocks
Stocks/use ratio, percent

80
41.7

48
24.7

47
24.9

46
25.0

45
25.0

44
24.4

44
24.4

43
23.8

43
23.8

43
23.8

43
23.6

43
23.6

2.02

2.35

2.75

2.55

2.50

2.50

2.50

2.50

2.55

2.55

2.55

2.55

101
1.57

107
1.64

109
1.66

111
1.68

112
1.70

114
1.72

117
1.74

119
1.76

121
1.79

124
1.81

126
1.84

72

58

54

53

52

51

53

52

50

49

Yields (bushels per acre):


Yield/harvested acre
Supply and use (million bushels):

Price (dollars per bushel):


Farm price

Variable costs of production (dollars):


Per acre
Per bushel

102
1.52

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):


Net returns
34
50
Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for oats.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

73

Table 23. U.S. wheat long-term projections


Item
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Area (million acres):
Planted acres
Harvested acres

59.2
49.9

53.6
47.6

57.0
48.5

55.5
47.2

54.0
45.9

53.0
45.1

52.0
44.2

51.5
43.8

51.5
43.8

51.5
43.8

51.0
43.4

51.0
43.4

44.5

46.4

43.8

44.2

44.5

44.8

45.2

45.5

45.8

46.1

46.5

46.8

Yields (bushels per acre):


Yield/harvested acre

Supply and use (million bushels):


Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Supply

657
2,218
119
2,993

976
2,208
110
3,294

848
2,125
110
3,083

718
2,085
110
2,913

706
2,045
110
2,861

746
2,020
115
2,881

759
2,000
115
2,874

743
1,995
120
2,858

718
2,005
120
2,843

694
2,020
125
2,839

682
2,020
125
2,827

661
2,030
130
2,821

Food
Seed
Feed & residual
Domestic
Exports
Total use

917
69
150
1,137
881
2,018

940
76
180
1,196
1,250
2,446

950
75
190
1,215
1,150
2,365

959
73
175
1,207
1,000
2,207

968
72
175
1,215
900
2,115

977
70
175
1,222
900
2,122

986
70
175
1,231
900
2,131

995
70
175
1,240
900
2,140

1,004
70
175
1,249
900
2,149

1,013
69
175
1,257
900
2,157

1,022
69
175
1,266
900
2,166

1,031
69
175
1,275
900
2,175

976
48.4

848
34.7

718
30.4

706
32.0

746
35.3

759
35.8

743
34.9

718
33.6

694
32.3

682
31.6

661
30.5

646
29.7

Ending stocks
Stocks/use ratio, percent
Price (dollars per bushel):
Farm price

4.87

5.50

6.50

5.90

5.55

5.45

5.45

5.50

5.50

5.55

5.55

5.60

125
2.70

133
3.03

136
3.07

138
3.09

140
3.12

142
3.15

145
3.19

148
3.23

151
3.27

154
3.30

157
3.35

Net returns
88
130
152
Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for wheat.

125

109

104

104

105

104

105

104

105

Variable costs of production (dollars):


Per acre
Per bushel

129
2.89

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

74

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 24. U.S. soybeans and products long-term projections


Item
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Soybeans
Area (million acres):
Planted
77.5
Harvested
76.4
Yield/harvested acre (bushels)
44.0
Supply (million bushels)
Beginning stocks, September 1
138
Production
3,359
Imports
15
Total supply
3,512
Disposition (million bushels)
Crush
1,752
Seed and residual
108
Exports
1,501
Total disposition
3,361
Carryover stocks, August 31
Total ending stocks
151
Stocks/use ratio, percent
4.5
Price (dollars per bushel)
Soybean price, farm
9.59
Variable costs of production (dollars):
Per acre
132
Per bushel
3.01
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):
Net returns
290

77.7
76.8
43.9

78.0
77.1
43.5

78.3
77.3
44.0

78.5
77.6
44.4

79.0
78.1
44.9

79.0
78.1
45.3

79.5
78.5
45.8

79.5
78.5
46.2

79.5
78.5
46.7

79.5
78.5
47.1

79.5
78.5
47.6

151
3,375
10
3,536

185
3,355
10
3,550

190
3,395
10
3,595

195
3,445
10
3,650

194
3,505
10
3,709

197
3,540
10
3,747

199
3,590
10
3,799

196
3,625
10
3,831

197
3,660
10
3,867

198
3,695
10
3,903

199
3,735
10
3,945

1,665
117
1,570
3,351

1,660
125
1,575
3,360

1,670
125
1,605
3,400

1,695
126
1,635
3,456

1,715
127
1,670
3,512

1,735
128
1,685
3,548

1,770
128
1,705
3,603

1,790
129
1,715
3,634

1,810
129
1,730
3,669

1,830
129
1,745
3,704

1,850
130
1,765
3,745

185
5.5

190
5.7

195
5.7

194
5.6

197
5.6

199
5.6

196
5.4

197
5.4

198
5.4

199
5.4

200
5.3

11.45

11.20

10.55

10.25

10.20

10.25

10.25

10.30

10.30

10.35

10.35

131
2.98

136
3.13

139
3.15

140
3.16

142
3.17

144
3.18

146
3.19

148
3.20

150
3.22

152
3.23

154
3.24

372

351

325

315

315

320

323

328

330

335

338

Soybean oil (million pounds)


Beginning stocks, October 1
Production
Imports
Total supply
Domestic disappearance

2,861
19,615
105
22,581
15,822

3,358
18,980
115
22,453
17,100

2,653
18,940
125
21,718
17,400

2,368
19,070
135
21,573
18,000

2,073
19,375
145
21,593
18,200

2,093
19,620
155
21,868
18,425

2,143
19,865
165
22,173
18,650

2,123
20,285
175
22,583
18,875

2,208
20,530
185
22,923
19,125

2,223
20,780
195
23,198
19,375

2,198
21,025
205
23,428
19,625

2,128
21,275
215
23,618
19,875

For methyl ester1


Exports
Total demand
Ending stocks, September 30
Soybean oil price (dollars per lb)

1,682
3,400
19,222
3,358
0.357

2,900
2,700
19,800
2,653
0.445

3,100
1,950
19,350
2,368
0.455

3,500
1,500
19,500
2,073
0.455

3,500
1,300
19,500
2,093
0.455

3,500
1,300
19,725
2,143
0.460

3,500
1,400
20,050
2,123
0.460

3,500
1,500
20,375
2,208
0.460

3,525
1,575
20,700
2,223
0.463

3,550
1,625
21,000
2,198
0.465

3,575
1,675
21,300
2,128
0.468

3,600
1,700
21,575
2,043
0.470

Beginning stocks, October 1


Production
Imports
Total supply
Domestic disappearance
Exports
Total demand
Ending stocks, September 30
Soybean meal price (dollars per ton)

235
41,702
150
42,087
30,634
11,150
41,784
303
311.27

303
39,532
165
40,000
30,600
9,100
39,700
300
330.00

300
39,435
165
39,900
31,000
8,600
39,600
300
312.50

300
39,685
165
40,150
31,250
8,600
39,850
300
286.00

300
40,235
165
40,700
31,700
8,700
40,400
300
275.00

300
40,685
165
41,150
32,150
8,700
40,850
300
271.00

300
41,235
165
41,700
32,650
8,750
41,400
300
273.50

300
41,985
165
42,450
33,150
9,000
42,150
300
273.50

300
42,485
165
42,950
33,650
9,000
42,650
300
275.00

300
42,985
165
43,450
34,150
9,000
43,150
300
274.00

300
43,485
165
43,950
34,650
9,000
43,650
300
275.00

300
43,985
165
44,450
35,150
9,000
44,150
300
275.00

Crushing yields (pounds per bushel)


Soybean oil
Soybean meal
Crush margin (dollars per bushel)

11.20
47.60
1.81

11.40
47.50
1.46

11.41
47.50
1.41

11.42
47.50
1.44

11.43
47.50
1.48

11.44
47.50
1.50

11.45
47.50
1.51

11.46
47.50
1.52

11.47
47.50
1.54

11.48
47.50
1.55

11.49
47.50
1.55

11.50
47.50
1.59

Soybean meal (thousand short tons)

Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal.
1/ Soybean oil used for methyl ester for production of biodiesel, history from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

75

Table 25. U.S. rice long-term projections, rough basis


Item
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
TOTAL
Area (thousand acres):
Planted
Harvested

3,135
3,103

3,642
3,623

3,300
3,275

3,200
3,176

3,215
3,191

3,230
3,206

3,290
3,265

3,300
3,275

3,310
3,285

3,310
3,285

3,310
3,285

3,310
3,285

7,085

6,669

7,102

7,191

7,267

7,339

7,400

7,466

7,534

7,595

7,662

7,726

Yields (pounds per acre):


Yield/harvested acre

Supply and use (million hundredweight):


Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Total supply

30.6
219.9
19.0
269.4

36.7
241.6
19.5
297.8

49.8
232.6
20.0
302.4

50.9
228.4
20.6
299.9

45.9
231.9
21.1
298.9

41.4
235.3
21.7
298.4

37.4
241.6
22.3
301.2

36.7
244.5
22.8
304.0

36.5
247.5
23.4
307.5

36.9
249.5
24.0
310.4

36.7
251.7
24.7
313.0

36.7
253.8
25.3
315.8

Domestic use and residual


Exports
Total use

122.6
110.2
232.7

129.0
119.0
248.0

130.5
121.0
251.5

132.0
122.0
254.0

133.5
124.0
257.5

135.0
126.0
261.0

136.5
128.0
264.5

138.0
129.5
267.5

139.6
131.0
270.6

141.2
132.5
273.7

142.8
133.5
276.3

144.4
134.5
278.9

Ending stocks
Stocks/use ratio, percent

36.7
15.8

49.8
20.1

50.9
20.2

45.9
18.1

41.4
16.1

37.4
14.3

36.7
13.9

36.5
13.7

36.9
13.6

36.7
13.4

36.7
13.3

36.9
13.2

Milling rate, percent

69.4

68.9

69.0

69.0

69.0

69.0

69.0

69.0

69.0

69.0

69.0

69.0

Prices (dollars per hundredweight):


World price
11.24
Average farm price
14.00

11.15
12.60

11.00
12.60

10.30
12.10

10.30
12.20

10.51
12.51

10.72
12.72

10.93
12.93

11.15
13.15

11.37
13.37

11.60
13.60

11.83
13.83

480
7.19

502
7.07

513
7.13

520
7.16

528
7.19

536
7.24

544
7.29

553
7.34

562
7.39

571
7.45

580
7.51

520

361

393

357

366

390

406

421

438

454

471

489

Planted

2,290

2,836

2,500

2,400

2,400

2,400

2,450

2,450

2,450

2,450

2,450

2,450

Harvested

2,265

2,821

2,480

2,381

2,381

2,381

2,430

2,430

2,430

2,430

2,430

2,430

6,743

6,434

6,800

6,892

6,974

7,051

7,123

7,194

7,266

7,339

7,412

7,486

Variable costs of production (dollars):


Per acre
Per hundredweight

472
6.71

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):


Net returns
LONG GRAIN
Area (thousand acres):

Yields (lbs per acre):


Yield/harvested acre

Supply and use (million hundredweight):


Beginning stocks
Production
Imports

20.1

23.2

38.6

39.6

34.6

30.0

25.7

25.1

24.6

24.3

24.1

24.2

152.7

181.5

168.6

164.1

166.1

167.9

173.1

174.8

176.6

178.3

180.1

181.9

16.5

17.0

17.4

17.9

18.3

18.8

19.3

19.7

20.2

20.7

21.3

21.8

189.3

221.6

224.6

221.6

219.0

216.7

218.1

219.6

221.4

223.3

225.5

227.9

Domestic use & residual

90.8

99.0

100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

104.0

105.0

106.1

107.2

108.3

109.4

Exports

75.4

84.0

85.0

86.0

87.0

88.0

89.0

90.0

91.0

92.0

93.0

94.0

166.2

183.0

185.0

187.0

189.0

191.0

193.0

195.0

197.1

199.2

201.3

203.4

Total supply

Total use
Ending stocks

23.2

38.6

39.6

34.6

30.0

25.7

25.1

24.6

24.3

24.1

24.2

24.5

Stocks/use ratio, percent

13.9

21.1

21.4

18.5

15.9

13.5

13.0

12.6

12.3

12.1

12.0

12.0

12.80

11.00

10.75

10.45

10.59

10.98

11.19

11.47

11.81

12.03

12.26

12.47

Planted

845

806

800

800

815

830

840

850

860

860

860

860

Harvested

838

802

795

795

810

825

835

845

855

855

855

855

8,010

7,495

8,050

8,090

8,129

8,168

8,208

8,248

8,289

8,330

8,372

8,414

Price (dollars per hundredweight):


Average farm price
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN
Area (thousand acres):

Yields (lbs per acre):


Yield/harvested acre

Supply and use (million hundredweight):


Beginning stocks
Production
Imports

76

8.0

12.1

9.7

9.8

9.8

9.9

10.2

10.2

10.5

11.1

11.1

11.1

67.1

60.1

64.0

64.3

65.8

67.4

68.5

69.7

70.9

71.2

71.6

71.9

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

Total supply

78.7

74.7

76.3

76.8

78.4

80.2

81.7

83.0

84.6

85.6

86.1

86.5

Domestic use & residual

31.8

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

32.5

33.0

33.5

34.0

34.5

35.0

Exports

34.8

35.0

36.0

36.0

37.0

38.0

39.0

39.5

40.0

40.5

40.5

40.5

Total use

66.6

65.0

66.5

67.0

68.5

70.0

71.5

72.5

73.5

74.5

75.0

75.5

Ending stocks
Stocks/use ratio, percent

12.1
18.1

9.7
14.9

9.8
14.7

9.8
14.6

9.9
14.4

10.2
14.6

10.2
14.3

10.5
14.5

11.1
15.1

11.1
14.9

11.1
14.8

11.0
14.6

Price (dollars per hundredweight):


Average farm price
17.70
17.80
Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for rice.

17.40

16.37

16.31

16.34

16.50

16.53

16.55

16.62

16.85

17.16

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 26. U.S. upland cotton long-term projections


Item
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Area (million acres):
Planted acres
Harvested acres

9.0
7.4

10.8
10.6

12.8
11.3

12.5
11.1

12.2
10.9

12.0
10.7

11.9
10.5

11.8
10.5

11.8
10.5

11.7
10.4

11.7
10.4

11.6
10.3

766

814

820

825

830

835

840

845

850

855

860

865

Yields (pounds per acre):


Yield/harvested acre

Supply and use (thousand bales):


Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Supply

6,032
11,788
0
17,820

2,929
17,920
0
20,849

2,179
19,300
0
21,479

3,100
19,100
0
22,200

3,870
18,800
0
22,670

4,390
18,600
0
22,990

4,760
18,400
0
23,160

4,880
18,500
0
23,380

5,050
18,600
0
23,650

5,270
18,500
0
23,770

5,340
18,600
0
23,940

5,460
18,600
0
24,060

Domestic use
Exports
Total use

3,429
11,343
14,772

3,420
15,275
18,695

3,370
15,000
18,370

3,320
15,000
18,320

3,270
15,000
18,270

3,220
15,000
18,220

3,170
15,100
18,270

3,120
15,200
18,320

3,070
15,300
18,370

3,020
15,400
18,420

2,970
15,500
18,470

2,920
15,600
18,520

2,929
19.8

2,179
11.7

3,100
16.9

3,870
21.1

4,390
24.0

4,760
26.1

4,880
26.7

5,050
27.6

5,270
28.7

5,340
29.0

5,460
29.6

5,530
29.9

0.629

0.800

0.850

0.750

0.700

0.705

0.710

0.715

0.720

0.725

0.730

0.735

468
0.58

486
0.59

496
0.60

505
0.61

514
0.62

523
0.62

533
0.63

543
0.64

553
0.65

563
0.65

574
0.66

Net returns
134
299
328
239
Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for upland cotton.

189

187

187

185

184

183

181

179

Ending stocks
Stocks/use ratio, percent
Price (dollars per pound):
Farm price

Variable costs of production (dollars):


Per acre
Per pound

446
0.58

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

77

Table 27. U.S. sugar long-term projections


Item
Units

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Sugarbeets
Planted area
Harvested area
Yield
Production

1,000 acres
1,000 acres
Tons/acre
Mil. s. tons

1,186
1,149
25.7
29.6

1,183
1,154
27.7
31.9

1,186
1,138
26.1
29.7

1,100
1,055
26.3
27.7

1,107
1,062
26.4
28.0

1,119
1,073
26.4
28.3

1,121
1,075
26.5
28.5

1,119
1,073
26.6
28.5

1,115
1,069
26.7
28.5

1,110
1,065
26.8
28.5

1,106
1,060
26.9
28.5

1,102
1,057
26.9
28.5

Sugarcane
Harvested area
Yield
Production

1,000 acres
Tons/acre
Mil. s. tons

812
34.8
28.3

819
33.6
27.5

818
34.1
27.8

815
34.2
27.9

815
34.4
28.0

816
34.6
28.2

816
34.8
28.4

816
34.9
28.5

816
35.1
28.7

816
35.3
28.8

816
35.5
29.0

816
35.7
29.1

Supply:
Beginning stocks
Production
Beet sugar
Cane sugar

1,000 s. tons
1,000 s. tons
1,000 s. tons
1,000 s. tons

1,534
7,967
4,575
3,392

1,501
8,230
4,800
3,430

1,265
8,321
4,845
3,476

1,522
8,013
4,525
3,488

1,564
8,098
4,589
3,510

1,578
8,201
4,668
3,533

1,591
8,268
4,712
3,556

1,603
8,313
4,735
3,578

1,616
8,349
4,749
3,600

1,629
8,385
4,764
3,621

1,641
8,418
4,775
3,643

1,652
8,457
4,793
3,664
3,886

Total imports

1,000 s. tons

3,320

2,744

3,208

3,613

3,607

3,597

3,622

3,670

3,726

3,783

3,831

TRQ imports

1,000 s. tons

1,854

1,409

1,409

1,415

1,417

1,420

1,422

1,427

1,430

1,432

1,435

1,436

Mexico

1,000 s. tons

807

1,025

1,474

1,873

1,865

1,852

1,874

1,918

1,972

2,026

2,071

2,125

Other imports

1,000 s. tons

658

310

325

325

325

325

325

325

325

325

325

325

Total supply

1,000 s. tons

12,821

12,475

12,794

13,148

13,269

13,376

13,480

13,586

13,691

13,797

13,890

13,995

Use:
Exports
Domestic deliveries
Miscellaneous
Total use

1,000 s. tons
1,000 s. tons
1,000 s. tons
1,000 s. tons

211
11,133
-22
11,321

150
11,060
0
11,210

150
11,122
0
11,272

150
11,434
0
11,584

150
11,541
0
11,691

150
11,635
0
11,785

150
11,727
0
11,877

150
11,820
0
11,970

150
11,913
0
12,063

150
12,006
0
12,156

150
12,088
0
12,238

150
12,181
0
12,331

CCC surplus disbursements 1


Ending stocks

1,000 s. tons
1,000 s. tons

0
1,501

0
1,265

0
1,522

0
1,564

0
1,578

0
1,591

0
1,603

0
1,616

0
1,629

0
1,641

0
1,652

0
1,665

22.92
18.75
24.09

22.92
18.75
24.09

22.92
18.75
24.09

22.92
18.75
24.09

22.92
18.75
24.09

22.92
18.75
24.09

22.92
18.75
24.09

22.92
18.75
24.09

22.92
18.75
24.09

41.09
29.49

41.09
29.51

41.09
29.53

41.09
29.55

41.09
29.57

41.09
29.59

41.09
29.61

41.09
29.63

41.09
29.65

Raw sugar price:


New York (No. 16)
Cents/lb.
35.36
23.99
22.92
Raw sugar loan rate
Cents/lb.
18.25
18.50
18.75
Beet sugar loan rate
Cents/lb.
23.45
23.77
24.09
Grow er prices:
Sugarbeets
Dol./ton
46.70
48.86
41.83
Sugarcane
Dol./ton
34.59
30.87
29.54
Note: Marketing year beginning October 1 for sugar.
1/ CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

78

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 28. Horticultural crops long-term supply and use projections, calendar years
Item
Unit
2009
2010
2011
2012
Production area1
Fruit, nuts, and vegetables
Fruit and tree nuts
Vegetables and melons
Supply
Production, farm w eight
Fruit and nuts
Citrus
Noncitrus
Tree nuts

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

1,000 acres
1,000 acres
1,000 acres

10,827
3,987
6,840

10,931
3,990
7,100

10,974
3,993
6,650

11,018
3,996
6,850

11,064
4,000
7,064

11,111
4,005
7,106

11,159
4,010
7,150

11,209
4,015
7,194

11,261
4,021
7,240

11,314
4,028
7,286

11,368
4,034
7,334

11,424
4,042
7,383

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.

63,954
23,678
36,258
4,018

62,502
21,856
36,548
4,098

64,523
23,502
36,840
4,180

64,666
23,267
37,135
4,264

64,816
23,034
37,432
4,349

64,972
22,804
37,732
4,436

65,134
22,576
38,034
4,525

65,303
22,350
38,338
4,615

65,479
22,127
38,645
4,708

65,661
21,905
38,954
4,802

65,850
21,686
39,265
4,898

66,045
21,469
39,579
4,996

Vegetables and melons 2


Fresh market
Processing
Potatoes
Pulses

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.

140,552 138,832 138,718 139,889 141,078 142,286 143,513 144,760 146,028 147,316 148,626 149,958
58,662 56,850 59,602 60,261 60,934 61,622 62,325 63,043 63,777 64,527 65,293 66,077
41,581 38,633 38,864 39,098 39,332 39,568 39,806 40,045 40,285 40,526 40,770 41,014
35,349 33,000 35,108 35,284 35,460 35,638 35,816 35,995 36,175 36,356 36,537 36,720
4,959
5,475
5,143
5,246
5,351
5,458
5,567
5,678
5,792
5,908
6,026
6,146

Total fruit, nuts, vegetables

Mil. lbs.

204,506 201,334 203,241 204,555 205,893 207,258 208,648 210,064 211,507 212,977 214,476 216,003

Imports, farm w eight


Fruit, nuts, and vegetables
Fruit and tree nuts
Vegetables & melons

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.

59,894
36,952
22,941

64,931
39,520
25,411

66,487
40,314
26,173

68,148
41,164
26,984

69,852
42,032
27,821

71,601
42,918
28,683

73,395
43,822
29,572

75,236
44,746
30,489

77,124
45,690
31,434

79,062
46,653
32,409

81,050
47,637
33,414

83,090
48,641
34,449

Use
Exports, farm w eight
Fruit, nuts, and vegetables
Fruit and tree nuts
Vegetables & melons

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.

33,409
13,577
19,833

34,899
14,325
20,574

35,323
14,440
20,883

35,753
14,557
21,196

36,189
14,675
21,514

36,633
14,796
21,837

37,083
14,918
22,164

37,540
15,043
22,497

38,004
15,170
22,834

38,476
15,299
23,177

38,955
15,430
23,525

39,441
15,564
23,877

Domestic use3
Fruit, nuts, and vegetables
Fruit and tree nuts
Vegetables & melons

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.

Farm sales value4


Fruit and nuts
Citrus
Noncitrus
Tree nuts

222,423 222,827 226,045 228,480 230,973 233,527 236,143 238,821 241,565 244,375 247,253 250,201
94,300 94,697 97,612 98,558 99,529 100,524 101,544 102,589 103,661 104,758 105,882 107,033
128,123 128,130 128,433 129,921 131,444 133,003 134,599 136,232 137,905 139,617 141,371 143,168

$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.

18,965
2,845
11,944
4,151

19,320
2,859
12,185
4,276

19,696
2,888
12,404
4,404

20,043
2,879
12,628
4,536

20,397
2,870
12,855
4,672

20,760
2,862
13,086
4,812

21,132
2,853
13,322
4,957

21,512
2,845
13,562
5,105

21,900
2,836
13,806
5,258

22,298
2,828
14,054
5,416

22,705
2,819
14,307
5,579

23,121
2,811
14,565
5,746

Vegetables and melons


Fresh market
Processing
Potatoes
Pulses

$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.

21,554
13,394
3,635
3,396
1,129

21,783
13,518
3,683
3,430
1,151

22,153
13,709
3,765
3,496
1,184

22,530
13,903
3,848
3,562
1,217

22,913
14,099
3,933
3,630
1,251

23,303
14,298
4,020
3,699
1,286

23,700
14,500
4,109
3,769
1,322

24,104
14,704
4,200
3,840
1,359

24,515
14,912
4,293
3,913
1,397

24,933
15,122
4,388
3,988
1,436

25,359
15,335
4,484
4,064
1,476

25,793
15,551
4,583
4,141
1,518

Nursery and greenhouse5

$ Mil.

15,915

16,026

16,154

16,283

16,414

16,545

16,677

16,811

16,945

17,081

17,217

17,355

Other horticulture crops 6

$ Mil.

859

875

899

925

950

977

1,004

1,033

1,061

1,091

1,122

1,153

Total horticulture crops

$ Mil.

57,294

58,003

58,902

59,780

60,674

61,585

62,513

63,459

64,422

65,403

66,403

67,422

1982=100
1982=100
1982=100
1982=100

110.4
164.3
107.6
808.9

122.2
167.0
123.5
836.0

120.7
159.9
124.7
844.2

122.5
164.0
126.0
852.5

124.4
168.1
127.2
860.8

126.3
172.3
128.5
869.3

128.3
176.6
129.7
877.8

130.2
180.8
131.0
886.4

132.2
185.1
132.3
895.1

134.3
189.4
133.6
903.9

136.3
193.7
135.0
912.7

138.4
198.1
136.3
921.7

1982=100
1982=100
1982=100
1982=100

162.2
169.4
155.7
156.6

181.7
195.0
137.0
145.0

184.9
183.3
137.2
158.7

186.5
186.9
139.1
175.0

188.1
190.4
141.1
176.4

189.7
193.9
143.0
177.8

191.2
197.5
145.0
179.2

192.8
201.0
147.0
180.6

194.4
204.5
149.1
182.0

196.0
207.9
151.2
183.4

197.6
211.4
153.3
184.8

199.2
214.8
155.4
186.3

Producer prices 7
Fresh fruits
Citrus
Noncitrus
Tree nuts
Vegetables
Fresh vegetables
Potatoes (fresh)
Pulses (dried)

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables


1982=100
146.7
162.3
163.7
165.5
167.2
169.0
170.8
172.6
174.5
176.3
178.2
180.0
1/ Bearing acreage for fruit and nuts; harvested area for vegetables. 2/ Utilized production is used for potatoes. Pulses include edible dry beans and peas,
lentils, and other peas. 3/ In farm or fresh w eight units. Stock changes are accounted for. 4/ Farm cash receipts for fresh and processing vegetables are
allocated based on their relative production value shares. 5/ Includes floral crops, greenhouse vegetables such as tomatoes, cucumbers, sw eet and hot
peppers, and fruit and vegetable transplants. 6/ Includes honey, maple syrup, hops, mint oils, taro, ginger root, and coffee from Haw aii and Puerto Rico. 7/ Not
seasonally adjusted producer price indexes for farm commodities from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices for fresh fruits include melons.
Data sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; Foreign Agricultural Service; Economic Research Service; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

79

Table 29. Horticultural crops long-term export and import projections, fiscal years
Item
Unit
2009
2010
2011
2012
Exports
Fruit and nuts
Fresh fruits
Citrus
Noncitrus
Processed fruits
Fruit juices
Tree nuts
Total fruit and nuts
Vegetables
Fresh

$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.

3,522
726
2,795
2,266
1,107
3,495
9,283

3,799
924
2,874
2,380
1,152
4,060
10,239

4,082
975
3,107
2,578
1,180
4,300
10,960

4,273
1,040
3,234
2,712
1,209
4,519
11,504

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

4,429
1,063
3,366
2,797
1,239
4,749
11,974

4,589
1,087
3,503
2,885
1,269
4,990
12,465

4,756
1,110
3,646
2,976
1,300
5,244
12,977

4,929
1,134
3,794
3,070
1,332
5,511
13,510

5,108
1,159
3,949
3,167
1,364
5,792
14,066

5,293
1,183
4,110
3,267
1,398
6,087
14,646

5,485
1,207
4,278
3,370
1,432
6,396
15,251

5,684
1,232
4,452
3,476
1,467
6,722
15,882

$ Mil.

1,892

2,060

2,118

2,184

2,252

2,322

2,394

2,469

2,546

2,625

2,707

2,791

$ Mil.
$ Mil.

3,113
5,005

3,233
5,294

3,322
5,440

3,423
5,607

3,526
5,778

3,634
5,956

3,744
6,138

3,858
6,327

3,975
6,521

4,095
6,720

4,220
6,927

4,348
7,139

Other horticulture
Nursery and greenhouse
Essential oils
Wine
Beer

$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.

355
1,234
827
296

336
1,367
1,004
296

340
1,424
1,036
304

345
1,484
1,069
313

350
1,546
1,104
321

354
1,611
1,139
330

359
1,679
1,176
340

364
1,750
1,214
349

369
1,823
1,253
359

374
1,900
1,293
369

379
1,980
1,335
379

384
2,063
1,377
390

Other 2

$ Mil.

3,636

4,076

4,796

4,997

5,206

5,424

5,651

5,887

6,132

6,387

6,652

6,928

Processed1
Total vegetables

Total horticulture

$ Mil.

20,634

22,610

24,300

25,318

26,280

27,280

28,319

29,399

30,522

31,688

32,901

34,162

Fresh produce3

$ Mil.

5,414

5,859

6,200

6,457

6,681

6,912

7,150

7,398

7,654

7,918

8,192

8,475

Processed produce3

$ Mil.

5,379

5,613

5,900

6,134

6,324

6,519

6,720

6,928

7,142

7,362

7,589

7,824

$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.

6,074
442
5,632
3,375
1,414
1,151
10,601

6,803
464
6,339
3,276
1,279
1,332
11,411

7,500
500
7,000
3,500
1,400
1,500
12,500

7,938
527
7,411
3,682
1,447
1,559
13,179

8,287
549
7,738
3,826
1,483
1,619
13,732

8,650
571
8,079
3,976
1,521
1,683
14,309

9,029
594
8,435
4,131
1,559
1,748
14,909

9,425
618
8,807
4,293
1,598
1,817
15,535

9,838
644
9,195
4,461
1,638
1,888
16,187

10,270
670
9,600
4,635
1,679
1,961
16,866

10,720
697
10,023
4,816
1,722
2,038
17,574

11,190
725
10,465
5,004
1,765
2,118
18,312

Imports
Fruit and nuts
Fresh fruits
Citrus
Noncitrus
Processed fruits
Fruit juices
Tree nuts
Total fruit and nuts
Vegetables
Fresh

$ Mil.

4,237

5,180

5,800

6,172

6,468

6,779

7,105

7,446

7,804

8,179

8,573

8,985

$ Mil.
$ Mil.

3,483
7,720

3,574
8,754

3,800
9,600

4,104
10,276

4,270
10,738

4,442
11,221

4,621
11,726

4,807
12,254

5,001
12,805

5,203
13,382

5,412
13,985

5,630
14,615

Other horticulture
Nursery and greenhouse
Essential oils
Wine
Beer

$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.
$ Mil.

1,357
2,406
4,084
3,428

1,441
2,414
4,258
3,452

1,600
2,600
4,500
3,600

1,617
2,789
4,792
3,781

1,635
2,941
4,999
3,908

1,653
3,102
5,215
4,039

1,671
3,271
5,441
4,175

1,689
3,450
5,676
4,315

1,707
3,638
5,922
4,460

1,726
3,836
6,178
4,610

1,744
4,046
6,445
4,764

1,763
4,267
6,724
4,924

Other 2

$ Mil.

3,421

3,820

4,100

4,407

4,604

4,809

5,023

5,247

5,481

5,725

5,981

6,247

$ Mil.

33,017

35,549

38,500

40,843

42,558

44,348

46,216

48,165

50,200

52,323

54,539

56,852

$ Mil.

10,311

11,983

13,300

14,110

14,755

15,429

16,134

16,872

17,643

18,449

19,293

20,175

Processed1
Total vegetables

Total horticulture
Fresh produce3

$ Mil.
6,859
6,850
7,300
7,787
8,096
8,418
8,752
9,100
9,462
9,838 10,229 10,635
Processed produce3
1/ Includes dry edible beans, peas, lentils, and potatoes. 2/ Includes hops, ginseng, sauces, condiments, mixed food, yeast, starches, and other products that
contain horticulture ingredients. 3/ Includes fruits and vegetables only.
Exports are free alongside ship (FAS) value at U.S. port of exportation. Imports are customs value at U.S. port of entry.
Data source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

80

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

U.S. Livestock
During the first several years of the projections, the livestock sector responds to high grain and soybean
meal prices in 2011with producer returns squeezed, production incentives are reduced, leading to
declines in total U.S. red meat and poultry production in 2012 and only moderate increases in 2011 and
2013. Combined with strengthening exports, the result is declining domestic per capita consumption of
red meat and poultry through 2013. As a consequence, prices in the sector rise, which improves net
returns and provides economic incentives for expansion in the sector later in the projection period.
U.S. red meat and poultry production
Billion pounds

40

Broilers

35
30
Beef

25
Pork

20
15
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Despite improved returns for cow-calf operators in 2010, strong demand for feeder cattle and cows
for slaughter have limited producer interest in expanding beef cow inventories after several years
of declines. Thus, reduced inventories and expected heifer retention during 2011 are expected to
lead to reduced beef production through 2012. Beef production then rises in the remainder of the
projection period as strengthening returns support herd rebuilding. Beef cow numbers rise from
about 31 million head at the beginning of 2011 to over 34 million by 2020. The total cattle
inventory drops below 92 million head before expanding to about 96.7 million at the end of the
projection period. Rising slaughter weights also contribute to the longer term expansion of beef
production. Although feed prices decline from current levels, continued historically-high feed
costs result in stocker cattle remaining on pasture to heavier weights before entering feedlots.

Pork production falls in 2012 in response to reduced returns in 2011, but as the projection period
progresses, producers are expected to increase farrowings as higher hog prices and lower feed
prices improve returns. Pork production increases will also be supported by gains in breeding
herd productivity and increased slaughter weights albeit at slower rates of gain than in the past
several years.

Poultry production is projected to rise the most among the meats over the next decade, as poultry
is the most efficient feed-to-meat converter. However growth in the sector will be slower than
occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. Poultry prices are expected to improve with increased demand,
although poultry will face competition from increased supplies of red meats. Additionally, despite
declining from recent highs, feed prices are projected to remain relatively high. Poultry
production growth is expected to come from both higher bird numbers and higher average
weights. Both broiler production and turkey production expand over the projection period, with
broilers increasing at a slightly faster rate.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

81

U.S. per capita meat consumption


Pounds per capita, retail weight
90

Broilers

80
70
Beef

60
50

Pork

40
30
1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Moderate near-term changes in production in the livestock sector, along with projected gains in
meat exports, result in higher consumer prices and lower per capita consumption. Annual average
consumption of red meats and poultry falls from over 221 pounds per capita in 2004-07 to about
203 pounds in 2012 and 2013. As production increases over the remainder of the projection
period, per capita consumption of red meats and poultry resumes growth, but only rises to about
216 pounds by 2020.

82

Per capita beef consumption declines through 2013, before rising moderately over the
remainder of the projection period. The initial decline reflects continuing reductions in
beef production through 2012 coupled with expanding exports. However, as beef
production increases in later years, per capita consumption grows.

Gains in U.S. pork exports combine with moderate pork production changes to push per
capita pork consumption down in 2010 through 2013. A gradual rebound in per capita
pork consumption occurs over the remainder of the projection period as production gains
strengthen.

Due partly to higher feed conversion rates and a shorter production process, the poultry
sector adjusts faster than the red meats sector to higher feed costs. As a result, poultry
production is projected to grow throughout the decade. Per capita consumption rises
through the end of the projection period and, in contrast to red meats, surpasses levels of
the past decade. Further, poultry meat consumption exceeds red meat consumption toward
the end of the projection period.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Nominal U.S. livestock prices


Dollars per hundredweight
120

Beef cattle: Steers, 5-area

110
100
90
Broilers: 12-city
m arket price

80
70
60
50

Hogs: National base

40
30
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Prices in the livestock sector are projected to generally rise over the projection period, reflecting a
moderate pace of expansion combined with improving domestic and export demands.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

83

U.S. meat exports


Billion pounds
16
Beef
14
12

Pork
Poultr y

10
8
6
4
2
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

The projected rise in U.S. meat and poultry exports over the next decade reflects the resumption of global
economic growth, a depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and continued foreign demand for selected cuts and
parts from the large U.S. market. As a result, exports account for a larger share of U.S. meat and poultry
use, although the domestic market remains the dominant source of overall meat and poultry demand.
Most U.S. beef exports are high-quality fed beef, typically going to Mexico, Canada, and Pacific Rim
nations. A continuing recovery is assumed for U.S. beef exports to Japan and South Korea, export
markets that were initially closed to the United States following the first U.S. case of bovine
spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in December 2003. Beef exports by competitor countries of
Australia and Canada increase slowly as herds are rebuilt.
U.S. imports of processing beef from Australia and New Zealand increase in the projection period.
With more beef demand in East Asian markets being met by the U.S. grain-fed beef, exports of
grass-fed beef from Australia and New Zealand to those markets are reduced, freeing more of that
product for sale to the United States. Additionally, moderate beef cow inventories and beef cow
slaughter in the United States raise import demand for processing beef.
Production efficiency in the U.S. pork sector enhances the competitiveness of U.S. pork products in
global trade. However, longer term U.S. pork export gains will be determined by costs of production
and environmental regulations relative to competitors. Production costs tend to be lower in countries
such as Brazil that have established or are developing integrated pork industries. However, Brazilian
pork producers ability to compete in some markets is limited because the projections assume that some
countries do not recognize Brazil as free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Thus, Pacific Rim nations
and Mexico remain key markets for long-term growth of U.S. pork exports, while Brazils pork exports
expand to Argentina and Asian markets other than Japan and South Korea. Russia is projected to
reduce pork imports to facilitate expansion of their domestic industry, with pork exports from the
United States and Brazil affected the most.
U.S. broiler exports rise from 2012 through the rest of the projection period. Major U.S. export markets
include China and Mexico, but U.S. broiler exports also have been increasing to a number of other
countries. Longer term gains in these markets reflect their economic growth and increasing consumer
demand. International demand for poultry also remains strong because of its lower cost relative to beef
and pork. U.S. producers continue to face strong competition from other major exporters, particularly
Brazil. For most of the projection period, exports from avian influenza-affected countries are expected
to be limited to fully cooked products. As with pork, Russia is projected to support their domestic
poultry industry by limiting imports.

84

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

U.S. dairy herd and milk production per cow


Million cows
11

1,000 pounds per cow


25
Output per cow

10

20

Milk cows
9

15

10

8
1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Milk production is projected to continue rising over the projection period, although at a slower
pace than in the past several years. An upward trend in output per cow continues, while milk cow
numbers decrease in 2012-20.

After a 4-year increase during 2005-08, milk cow numbers fell in 2009 and 2010 and are
projected to continue on a more typical path of year-to-year declines in 2012-20. Cow
numbers decline at lower rates toward the end of the projection period as the transition in
most regions from smaller, diversified farms to larger, specialized dairy operations
matures.

Milk output per cow is projected to increase through the projection period, reflecting
continued technological and genetic developments.

Domestic commercial use of dairy products increases somewhat faster than the growth in
U.S. population over most of the next decade. Cheese demand benefits from greater
consumption of prepared foods and increased away-from-home eating. However, per
capita consumption of fluid milk is expected to continue to decline slowly.

Commercial U.S. dairy exports are forecast to increase steadily over the next decade,
reaching record levels on a fat and a skim-solids basis. Increased production among the
major dairy exporting countries is expected to lag growth in global import demand. The
United States is expected to be well positioned to expand exports of dairy products, with
sales of cheese and nonfat dry milk growing strongly.

Farm-level milk prices are projected to rise steadily over the projection period. However,
increases are less than the overall rate of inflation largely because of efficiency gains in
production resulting from technological improvements and consolidation in the sector.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

85

Table 30. Per capita meat consumption, retail w eight


Item
2009
2010
2011
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Pounds
Total beef
Total veal
Total pork
Lamb and mutton
Total red meat
Broilers
Other chicken
Turkeys
Total poultry
Red meat & poultry

61.1
0.5
50.1
1.0
112.7

59.0
0.5
47.0
0.9
107.4

57.8
0.4
46.6
0.9
105.8

55.9
0.4
45.7
0.9
103.0

55.7
0.4
45.2
0.9
102.2

56.6
0.4
45.3
0.9
103.2

57.4
0.4
45.7
0.9
104.4

58.2
0.4
45.8
0.8
105.2

58.6
0.4
46.1
0.8
105.9

58.8
0.4
46.3
0.8
106.3

58.8
0.4
46.5
0.8
106.5

58.9
0.4
46.9
0.8
106.9

79.7
1.3
16.9
97.9

82.7
1.3
16.2
100.3

83.0
1.3
15.8
100.1

83.5
1.3
15.7
100.5

84.1
1.3
15.8
101.2

85.2
1.3
15.9
102.3

86.3
1.3
16.1
103.6

87.3
1.3
16.1
104.8

88.2
1.3
16.2
105.7

89.1
1.3
16.3
106.7

90.3
1.3
16.4
107.9

91.5
1.3
16.5
109.3

210.6

207.7

205.9

203.5

203.4

205.5

208.0

210.0

211.6

212.9

214.5

216.2

Table 31. Beef long-term projections


Item

Units

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Beginning stocks
Commercial production
Change from previous year

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Percent

642
25,965
-2.2

565
25,871
-0.4

535
25,445
-1.6

515
24,770
-2.7

515
25,023
1.0

515
25,712
2.8

515
26,318
2.4

515
26,875
2.1

515
27,305
1.6

515
27,614
1.1

515
27,842
0.8

515
28,075
0.8

Farm production
Total production
Imports
Total supply

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.

102
26,067
2,626
29,335

102
25,973
2,468
29,006

102
25,547
2,540
28,622

102
24,872
2,760
28,147

102
25,125
2,800
28,440

102
25,814
2,865
29,194

102
26,420
2,930
29,865

102
26,977
2,995
30,487

102
27,407
3,060
30,982

102
27,716
3,125
31,356

102
27,944
3,190
31,649

102
28,177
3,255
31,947

Exports

Mil. lbs.

1,935

2,313

2,270

2,401

2,603

2,714

2,784

2,838

2,893

2,950

3,008

3,068

Ending stocks

Mil. lbs.

565

535

515

515

515

515

515

515

515

515

515

515

Total consumption
Per capita, carcass w eight
Per capita, retail w eight
Change from previous year

Mil. lbs.
Pounds
Pounds
Percent

26,835
87.3
61.1
-2.6

26,158
84.3
59.0
-3.4

25,837
82.6
57.8
-2.1

25,231
79.9
55.9
-3.2

25,322
79.5
55.7
-0.5

25,965
80.9
56.6
1.7

26,566
82.0
57.4
1.5

27,134
83.1
58.2
1.3

27,574
83.8
58.6
0.8

27,891
84.0
58.8
0.3

28,126
84.1
58.8
0.0

28,364
84.1
58.9
0.0

$/cw t
$/cw t
$/cw t
$/cw t

80.36
106.42
83.25
96.14

91.45
118.78
94.81
108.42

96.22
119.82
99.75
109.25

103.03
132.61
106.81
120.91

106.52
137.04
110.43
124.95

106.31
135.10
110.21
123.18

105.63
132.75
109.51
121.04

105.62
131.61
109.50
120.00

106.34
131.65
110.24
120.03

108.31
133.98
112.29
122.16

110.48
136.65
114.54
124.60

112.56
139.67
116.69
127.35

$/cow
$/cow

522.11
-30.11

493.51
72.69

524.46
54.97

535.76
112.80

545.75
133.66

554.00
125.69

564.85
112.99

576.30
105.64

588.23
104.03

599.96
114.84

611.44
128.25

622.40
144.48

1,000 head
1,000 head
1,000 head

94,521
31,712
41,045

93,701
31,376
40,456

92,550
31,104
40,200

91,951
31,193
40,254

92,271
31,640
40,676

93,661
32,320
41,331

94,849
32,877
41,868

95,496
33,265
42,236

95,799
33,483
42,440

95,991
33,647
42,583

96,219
33,825
42,747

96,696
34,130
43,036

Prices:
Beef cattle, farm
Calves, farm
Steers, 5-area
Yearling steers, Oklahoma City
Costs and returns, cow -calf enterprise:
Total cash expenses
Returns above cash costs
Cattle inventory
Beef cow inventory
Total cow inventory

86

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 32. Pork long-term projections


Item

Units

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Beginning stocks
Commercial production
Change from previous year

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Percent

635
22,999
-1.5

525
22,234
-3.3

485
22,560
1.5

475
22,446
-0.5

475
22,474
0.1

475
22,757
1.3

475
23,178
1.9

475
23,486
1.3

475
23,798
1.3

475
24,105
1.3

475
24,445
1.4

475
24,827
1.6

Farm production
Total production
Imports
Total supply

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.

21
23,020
834
24,489

21
22,256
868
23,649

21
22,581
895
23,961

21
22,467
910
23,852

21
22,495
930
23,900

21
22,778
955
24,208

21
23,199
980
24,654

21
23,507
1,005
24,987

21
23,819
1,030
25,324

21
24,126
1,055
25,656

21
24,466
1,080
26,021

21
24,848
1,105
26,428

Exports

Mil. lbs.

4,095

4,368

4,675

4,785

4,884

5,000

5,125

5,224

5,310

5,396

5,484

5,577

Ending stocks

Mil. lbs.

525

485

475

475

475

475

475

475

475

475

475

475

Total consumption
Per capita, carcass w eight
Per capita, retail w eight
Change from previous year

Mil. lbs.
Pounds
Pounds
Percent

19,869
64.6
50.1
1.5

18,796
60.6
47.0
-6.2

18,811
60.1
46.6
-0.8

18,592
58.9
45.7
-2.0

18,541
58.2
45.2
-1.1

18,733
58.3
45.3
0.2

19,054
58.8
45.7
0.9

19,288
59.1
45.8
0.4

19,539
59.3
46.1
0.5

19,785
59.6
46.3
0.4

20,062
60.0
46.5
0.6

20,376
60.4
46.9
0.8

Prices:
Hogs, farm
National base, live equivalent

$/cw t
$/cw t

41.98
41.24

54.97
55.29

55.43
55.75

58.55
58.90

60.34
60.70

60.17
60.53

59.57
59.93

60.16
60.53

60.99
61.36

62.15
62.52

63.27
63.65

64.28
64.67

Total cash expenses


Returns above cash costs

$/cw t
$/cw t

63.26
-19.50

59.86
-1.20

70.78
-11.63

68.04
-5.54

64.17
0.23

62.83
1.40

63.02
0.57

63.52
0.70

64.24
0.87

65.04
1.30

65.74
1.80

66.26
2.36

Hog inventory,
December 1, previous year

1,000 head

67,148

64,887

64,450

64,143

64,217

64,981

66,118

66,947

67,791

68,617

69,536

70,565

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Costs and returns, farrow to finish:

Table 33. Young chicken long-term projections


Item
Units
2009
Beginning stocks
Federally inspected slaughter
Change from previous year

2010

2011

2012

2013

2020

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Percent

745
35,511
-3.8

616
36,612
3.1

695
37,150
1.5

660
37,490
0.9

660
38,056
1.5

660
38,760
1.8

660
39,502
1.9

660
40,243
1.9

660
40,899
1.6

660
41,580
1.7

660
42,383
1.9

660
43,208
1.9

Production
Total supply
Change from previous year

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Percent

35,131
35,961
-3.6

36,220
36,919
2.7

36,752
37,543
1.7

37,088
37,838
0.8

37,649
38,399
1.5

38,345
39,095
1.8

39,079
39,829
1.9

39,812
40,562
1.8

40,461
41,211
1.6

41,135
41,885
1.6

41,929
42,679
1.9

42,746
43,496
1.9

Exports

Mil. lbs.

6,818

6,346

6,650

6,500

6,550

6,600

6,650

6,700

6,750

6,800

6,850

6,900

Ending stocks

Mil. lbs.

616

695

660

660

660

660

660

660

660

660

660

660

Consumption
Per capita, carcass w eight
Per capita, retail w eight
Change from previous year

Mil. lbs.
Pounds
Pounds
Percent

28,527
92.8
79.7
-4.5

29,878
96.3
82.7
3.8

30,233
96.6
83.0
0.3

30,678
97.2
83.5
0.6

31,189
98.0
84.1
0.8

31,835
99.1
85.2
1.2

32,519
100.4
86.3
1.3

33,202
101.7
87.3
1.3

33,801
102.7
88.2
1.0

34,425
103.7
89.1
1.0

35,169
105.1
90.3
1.3

35,936
106.5
91.5
1.4

Cents/lb.
Cents/lb.

45.2
77.6

48.5
83.4

50.0
86.0

51.5
88.8

52.6
90.7

53.3
91.9

53.8
92.8

54.4
93.8

55.4
95.6

56.6
97.6

57.6
99.4

58.6
101.0

Cents/lb.
Cents/lb.

79.65
-2.04

77.50
5.90

85.09
0.91

83.80
4.98

82.07
8.67

82.14
9.75

83.27
9.52

84.71
9.12

86.26
9.33

87.93
9.70

89.50
9.86

Prices:
Broilers, farm
12-city market price
Costs and returns:
Total costs
Net returns

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

91.03
9.95

87

Table 34. Turkey long-term projections


Item
Units
Beginning stocks
Federally inspected slaughter
Change from previous year

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Percent

396
5,663
-9.3

262
5,587
-1.3

210
5,560
-0.5

225
5,598
0.7

250
5,685
1.5

275
5,776
1.6

300
5,859
1.4

300
5,934
1.3

300
6,010
1.3

300
6,089
1.3

300
6,175
1.4

300
6,268
1.5

Production
Total supply
Change from previous year

Mil. lbs.
Mil. lbs.
Percent

5,588
5,997
-6.8

5,514
5,788
-3.5

5,487
5,709
-1.4

5,525
5,762
0.9

5,611
5,873
1.9

5,700
5,987
2.0

5,783
6,095
1.8

5,857
6,169
1.2

5,932
6,244
1.2

6,010
6,322
1.3

6,094
6,406
1.3

6,186
6,498
1.4

Exports

Mil. lbs.

534

555

550

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

Ending stocks

Mil. lbs.

262

210

225

250

275

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

Consumption
Per capita
Change from previous year

Mil. lbs.
Pounds
Percent

5,201
16.9
-3.8

5,023
16.2
-4.3

4,934
15.8
-2.6

4,952
15.7
-0.5

5,028
15.8
0.7

5,107
15.9
0.7

5,205
16.1
1.0

5,269
16.1
0.4

5,334
16.2
0.4

5,402
16.3
0.5

5,476
16.4
0.6

5,558
16.5
0.7

Cents/lb.
Cents/lb.

49.9
76.5

60.0
90.0

60.0
90.0

61.7
92.6

62.3
93.5

61.4
92.2

60.6
90.9

60.4
90.6

60.7
91.1

61.4
92.2

62.2
93.4

63.0
94.6

Cents/lb.
Cents/lb.

77.49
-0.99

74.94
15.05

84.23
5.77

82.21
10.40

79.17
14.29

78.32
13.85

78.74
12.16

79.52
11.08

80.37
10.74

81.29
10.87

82.07
11.29

82.73
11.83

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Prices:
Turkey, farm
Hen turkeys, National
Costs and returns:
Total costs
Net returns

Table 35. Egg long-term projections


Item
Units
Beginning stocks
Production
Change from previous year
Imports
Total supply
Change from previous year
Hatching use
Exports
Ending stocks
Consumption
Per capita
Change from previous year

2009

2020

Mil. doz.
Mil. doz.
Percent

17
7,534
0.4

18
7,607
1.0

18
7,635
0.4

18
7,597
-0.5

18
7,574
-0.3

18
7,574
0.0

18
7,612
0.5

18
7,688
1.0

18
7,765
1.0

18
7,843
1.0

18
7,913
0.9

18
7,984
0.9

Mil. doz.
Mil. doz.
Percent

11
7,562
0.5

12
7,637
1.0

12
7,665
0.4

12
7,627
-0.5

12
7,604
-0.3

12
7,604
0.0

12
7,642
0.5

12
7,718
1.0

12
7,795
1.0

12
7,873
1.0

12
7,943
0.9

12
8,014
0.9

Mil. doz.
Mil. doz.

955
242

982
244

1,010
237

1,018
240

1,028
243

1,041
246

1,055
249

1,069
252

1,082
255

1,095
258

1,110
261

1,125
264

Mil. doz.

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

Mil. doz.
Number
Percent

6,347
247.7
-0.2

6,393
247.3
-0.2

6,400
245.4
-0.8

6,351
241.4
-1.6

6,315
238.0
-1.4

6,300
235.4
-1.1

6,320
234.2
-0.5

6,379
234.4
0.1

6,440
234.7
0.1

6,501
235.0
0.1

6,555
235.1
0.0

6,607
235.1
0.0

Cents/doz.
Cents/doz.

82.1
103.0

82.8
103.0

79.7
99.3

86.4
108.0

93.6
117.0

98.4
123.0

103.2
129.0

105.6
132.0

106.4
133.0

107.2
134.0

108.0
135.0

109.2
136.5

Prices:
Eggs, farm
New York, Grade A large
Costs and returns:
Total costs
Net returns

88

Cents/doz.
Cents/doz.

115.40 109.58 133.24 127.84 120.10 117.72 118.54 120.05 121.97 124.06 125.93 127.41
-12.40
-6.58 -33.94 -19.84
-3.10
5.28
10.46
11.95
11.03
9.94
9.07
9.09

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 36. Dairy long-term projections


Item
Milk production and marketings:
Number of cow s
Milk per cow
Milk production
Farm use
Marketings

Units

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

1,000
Pounds
Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.

9,201
20,576
189.3
1.0
188.3

9,115
21,160
192.8
1.0
191.9

9,130
21,425
195.6
1.0
194.6

9,095
21,780
198.1
1.0
197.1

9,070
22,180
201.2
1.0
200.2

9,045
22,600
204.4
0.9
203.5

9,025
22,990
207.5
0.9
206.6

9,005
23,425
210.9
0.9
210.0

8,990
23,735
213.4
0.9
212.5

8,970
24,105
216.2
0.8
215.4

8,955
24,480
219.2
0.8
218.4

8,940
24,950
223.1
0.8
222.3

Beginning commercial stocks


Marketings
Imports
Commercial supply

Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.

10.1
188.3
5.6
204.0

11.3
191.9
4.6
207.8

10.1
194.6
4.1
208.9

10.6
197.1
4.3
212.0

10.9
200.2
4.4
215.5

11.1
203.5
4.5
219.1

11.1
206.6
4.6
222.3

10.9
210.0
4.7
225.6

10.5
212.5
4.8
227.8

10.0
215.4
4.9
230.3

9.6
218.4
5.1
233.1

9.3
222.3
5.2
236.8

Domestic commercial use1


Commercial exports
Ending commercial stocks
Total utilization

Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.

187.3
4.5
11.3
203.1

189.7
7.7
10.1
207.5

192.1
6.2
10.6
208.9

194.9
6.2
10.9
212.0

197.6
6.8
11.1
215.5

200.4
7.6
11.1
219.1

203.3
8.1
10.9
222.3

206.6
8.5
10.5
225.6

208.8
9.0
10.0
227.8

211.1
9.6
9.6
230.3

213.7
10.1
9.3
233.1

216.9
10.8
9.1
236.8

CCC net removals 2

Bil. lbs.

0.7

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Beginning commercial stocks


Marketings
Imports
Commercial supply

Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.

10.9
188.3
5.5
204.7

11.3
191.9
5.1
208.2

11.8
194.6
4.9
211.3

11.5
197.1
5.1
213.7

11.1
200.2
5.3
216.6

10.9
203.5
5.5
219.9

10.7
206.6
5.7
223.0

10.6
210.0
5.9
226.5

10.5
212.5
6.1
229.1

10.5
215.4
6.4
232.3

10.5
218.4
6.6
235.5

10.6
222.3
6.9
239.8

Domestic commercial use1


Commercial exports
Ending commercial stocks
Total utilization

Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.
Bil. lbs.

168.6
22.4
11.3
202.3

167.0
29.8
11.8
208.6

170.3
29.5
11.5
211.3

172.5
30.1
11.1
213.7

174.8
30.9
10.9
216.6

177.5
31.7
10.7
219.9

180.3
32.1
10.6
223.0

183.3
32.7
10.5
226.5

185.5
33.1
10.5
229.1

188.0
33.8
10.5
232.3

190.5
34.4
10.6
235.5

193.8
35.3
10.7
239.8

CCC net removals 2

Bil. lbs.

2.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

18.20

18.50

18.70

Supply and use, milkfat basis:

Supply and use, skim solids basis:

Prices:
All milk
$/cw t
12.83
16.35
16.40
16.95
17.10
17.30
17.45
17.70
17.90
Dairy projections w ere completed in November 2010.
CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
1/ Domestic commercial use is adjusted for the Barter Program. 2/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

89

U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators


Farm Income, U.S. Trade Value, Food Prices, and Food Expenditures
High commodity prices underlie record projected levels of U.S. agricultural exports and U.S. net
farm income in 2011. Although grain, oilseed, and cotton prices, export value, and farm income
retreat somewhat in the next several years, a return to steady domestic and international economic
growth supports demand for U.S. agricultural products over the next decade. In addition, rising
global demand for agricultural commodities for the production of biofuels continues. Thus, after
the near-term declines, the value of U.S. agricultural exports and net farm income each rise
through the rest of the decade. U.S. retail food prices increase faster than the overall rate of
inflation in 2011 and 2012, reflecting higher food commodity prices and energy costs and
improved demand as the economic recovery continues.

U.S. net farm income


Billion dollars
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Net farm income rises to record levels in 2011, largely reflecting the recent runup in prices for
many agricultural commodities. While income declines in 2012-14, it grows over the rest of the
decade and remains well above the average of the previous decade (2001-10) throughout the
projection period.

90

Strengthening global food demand and sustained biofuel demand provide a major impetus
for projections of rising cash receipts.

Lower Government payments and rising farm production expenses offset some of the gains
in cash receipts and other sources of farm income.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Direct Government payments


Billion dollars
25

20
Total direct
Government payments

15

10

0
1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Direct Government payments to farmers fall to about $8.5 billion for the latter half of the next
decade. Price-dependent program benefits have become less important. Ad hoc and emergency
payments are projected to fall from recent levels, in part because the supplemental agricultural
disaster assistance programs authorized under the 2008 Farm Act only cover qualifying losses that
occur before October 2011. As a result, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and fixed direct
payments represent about 88 percent of direct Government payments toward the end of the
projection period.

Improving domestic and international demand holds prices for most crops above levels that
would result in marketing loan benefits or counter-cyclical payments, so projected benefits
for these programs are negligible over the next decade. Similarly, with relatively low
enrollment and projected long-run stability in commodity prices, projections of payments
under the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program average less than $100 million
over 2012-20.

High crop prices make the use of land for production more valuable, so rental rates for land
in the CRP rise. Even with reduced CRP acreage enrollment due to the 2008 Farm Acts
lowering of the maximum acreage permitted in the program, CRP payments rise from
about $1.9 billion in 2010 to $2.4 billion in 2020.

With high prices, Government payments have a smaller role in the agricultural sectors
income. Government payments, which represented more than 8 percent of gross cash
income in 2005, fall to about 2 percent by the end of the projection period. Conversely, the
sector relies on the market for more of its income.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

91

Selected energy-related production expenses and crude oil prices


Billion dollars (fuel and fertilizer)
35

Dollars per barrel (oil price)


120
Refiner acquisition cost,
crude oil imports

30

100

25

80

20
60
15

Fertilizer expenses

Fuel and oil expenses

10

20

0
1990

40

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Total farm production expenses are projected to rise somewhat less rapidly than the overall rate of
inflation over 2011-2020. While interest expenses and some energy-related costs rise faster than
the general inflation rate, expenses for farm-origin inputs (seed, feed, and livestock) and most
other nonfarm-origin expenses are up less than the general inflation rate.

Projected increases in interest costs rise faster than the general inflation rate, due to rising
interest rates from the low rates of recent years as well as increased debt.

Energy-related production expenses for fertilizer and for fuel and oil also rise faster than the
general inflation rate over the projection period, largely reflecting increases in crude oil prices.

92

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

U.S. agricultural trade value


Billion dollars
140

Exports

120
100
Imports

80
60
40
20
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

The value of U.S. agricultural exports initially falls from the record levels projected for fiscal year
2011 as prices for major field crops decline from current high levels. Agricultural exports then rise
through the remainder of the projections because of increased global economic growth and
agricultural demand and a weaker U.S. dollar. Domestic economic growth boosts demand for U.S.
agricultural imports. (Fiscal years are October 1 through September 30 and are named after the
second calendar year that they span.)

The value of U.S. agricultural exports is projected to reach a new record exceeding $126 billion
in 2011 largely reflecting high commodity prices. With declining prices projected for major
crops over the next several years, export values fall through fiscal 2013. Agricultural export
values are then projected to grow over the next decade and surpass the 2011 record. A
resumption of world economic growth, particularly in developing countries, provides a
foundation for increases in global food demand, trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. Continued
global biofuel demand also contributes to high commodity prices and gains in export values.
Furthermore, a depreciation of the U.S. dollar is an important factor underlying projected gains
in U.S. exports.

The share of U.S. agricultural exports represented by high-value products (HVP) falls in 2011
as high commodity prices boost bulk commodity exports. However, for the remainder of the
projection period, HVP exports grow in importance and reach nearly two-thirds of the value of
U.S. exports. Much of the growth in HVP exports is for animal products and horticultural
products.

U.S. agricultural import values rise to $122 billion in 2020, boosted by gains in consumer
income and demand for a large variety of foods. Strong growth in horticultural imports is
assumed to continue, contributing about half of the overall agricultural import increase over the
projection period.

The agricultural trade balance declines from the record surplus of $41 billion projected for
2011, but remains a surplus of about $19 billion at the end of the projection period.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

93

U.S. food inflation


Percent change
7

C onsumer Price Index


(CPI), all items

Food C PI

-1
1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

U.S. consumer food prices in 2010 had the smallest annual increase since the 1960s. In particular,
the 1.3 percent rise in prices for away-from-home meals was the smallest increase since 1955,
partly reflecting promotions to augment otherwise weak demand following the recession.

94

Higher food commodity and energy prices will exert pressure on retail food prices into
2011. Additionally, as the economy recovers, retail food prices are projected to rise faster
than overall inflation in 2011 and 2012. Over the remainder of the projection period,
consumer food prices in the United States rise less than the general inflation rate. This
moderation largely reflects production increases in the livestock sector which facilitate
gains in per capita meat consumption and limit meat price increases.

Higher commodity prices for food grains and oil-bearing crops push projected retail prices
for cereals and bakery products and for fats and oils up more than the overall inflation rate
in the near term. However, in the longer run, prices for these highly processed foods tend
to reflect processing and marketing costs, thus keeping their increases near the general rate
of inflation.

Retail price increases for food away from home slowed in 2009 and 2010 as demand
weakened due to the recession and the away-from-home food industry used promotions in
response. As the economy rebounds, income gains will support growth in food
consumption away from home. This factor, along with some linkage to price increases for
meat and poultry, suggests that retail prices for food consumed away from home are likely
to rise more than the overall rate of inflation over the next several years.

In the longer run, prices for food away from home largely reflect the overall rate of
inflation. Competition in the fast-food and foodservice industries tends to moderate awayfrom-home price increases, keeping their gains close to the general inflation rate over the
rest of the projection period.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

U.S. food expenditures


Billion dollars
1,000
Food away from home

800

Food at home
600

400

200

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

The U.S. economic recession reduced consumer sales for meals eaten away from home in
2009. In response, the away-from-home food industry relied heavily on promotions in 2010 to
partly offset otherwise continued weak demand.

As the domestic economy rebounds, food expenditures resume stronger growth. As


consumer demand strengthens, expenditures for meals away from home rise faster than
expenditures for food at home and account for a growing share of total food spending.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

95

Table 37. Farm receipts, expenses, and income, long-term projections


2009
2010
2011
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Billion dollars
Cash receipts:
Crops
Livestock and products
All commodities

163.7
119.8

171.4
140.6

192.8
143.0

187.8
149.0

182.6
153.6

182.3
156.3

184.3
158.6

186.8
161.5

189.9
164.5

193.1
168.5

195.9
172.6

198.5
176.6

283.4

312.1

335.8

336.9

336.2

338.5

342.8

348.4

354.4

361.6

368.5

375.2

Farm-related income
Government payments
Gross cash income

22.0
12.3
317.6

21.0
12.2
345.2

21.1
10.6
367.6

21.4
10.3
368.6

21.9
9.9
368.0

22.4
8.8
369.8

22.9
8.4
374.2

23.5
8.4
380.2

24.0
8.4
386.8

24.5
8.5
394.6

25.1
8.4
402.0

25.6
8.4
409.2

Cash expenses
Net cash income

248.5
69.1

254.4
90.8

271.7
95.8

276.1
92.6

278.1
89.9

281.1
88.6

284.9
89.3

289.6
90.6

295.0
91.8

300.6
94.0

305.9
96.1

311.0
98.2

Value of inventory change


Non-money income
Gross farm income

4.5
21.1
343.2

-0.2
21.7
366.7

5.6
23.1
396.3

-0.1
23.6
392.2

0.9
24.1
393.1

2.2
24.6
396.5

2.0
25.0
401.2

1.7
25.5
407.4

1.6
26.0
414.4

1.4
26.5
422.6

1.5
27.1
430.6

1.6
27.6
438.4

Noncash expenses
20.8
21.2
21.5
Operator dw elling expenses
11.7
11.8
12.1
Total production expenses
281.0
287.5
305.4
Net farm income
62.2
79.3
90.9
The projections w ere completed in December 2010.

21.9
12.3
310.2
81.9

22.4
12.4
312.9
80.2

22.7
12.6
316.4
80.0

23.0
12.7
320.6
80.6

23.2
12.9
325.7
81.8

23.5
13.0
331.5
82.9

23.7
13.1
337.5
85.1

24.0
13.3
343.2
87.4

24.2
13.5
348.7
89.7

96

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 38. Summary of U.S. agricultural trade long-term projections, fiscal years
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Billion dollars
Agricultural exports (value):
Livestock, dairy, and poultry
Livestock, poultry, and products
Dairy products
Grain and feeds
Coarse grains
Oilseeds and products
Soybeans and products
Horticultural products
Fruits and vegetables, fresh
Fruits and vegetables, processed
Cotton
Other exports

18.6
16.4
2.3
26.3
10.0
20.9
17.6
20.6
5.4
5.4
3.5
6.3

21.5
18.2
3.4
27.3
9.8
25.4
22.1
22.6
5.9
5.6
4.8
7.0

23.0
19.8
3.2
35.4
13.3
28.3
24.8
24.3
6.2
5.9
8.0
7.5

22.8
19.5
3.3
32.4
12.6
27.5
23.7
25.3
6.5
6.1
6.9
7.5

24.2
20.7
3.5
29.3
11.5
26.3
22.5
26.3
6.7
6.3
6.3
7.8

25.5
21.8
3.7
28.2
11.1
26.0
22.1
27.3
6.9
6.5
5.9
8.1

26.2
22.4
3.8
28.7
11.3
26.3
22.4
28.3
7.2
6.7
6.0
8.4

26.8
22.8
4.0
29.3
11.4
26.7
22.8
29.4
7.4
6.9
6.0
8.8

27.3
23.2
4.1
30.2
11.8
27.1
23.1
30.5
7.7
7.1
6.1
9.1

28.0
23.7
4.3
31.2
12.2
27.4
23.4
31.7
7.9
7.4
6.2
9.3

28.9
24.4
4.5
32.1
12.7
27.6
23.6
32.9
8.2
7.6
6.3
9.6

29.7
25.1
4.7
32.8
13.0
27.9
23.9
34.2
8.5
7.8
6.3
10.0

Total agricultural exports

96.3

108.7

126.5

122.4

120.1

121.1

124.0

127.0

130.3

133.8

137.4

140.9

36.8
59.5
61.8%

41.0
67.6
62.3%

55.0
71.5
56.5%

50.7
71.6
58.5%

46.2
73.9
61.5%

44.3
76.8
63.4%

44.7
79.3
63.9%

45.2
81.7
64.4%

46.1
84.2
64.6%

46.8
86.9
65.0%

47.7
89.7
65.3%

48.4
92.6
65.7%

138.2

140.5

142.6

144.8

146.9

Bulk commodity exports


High-value product exports
High-value product share

Million metric tons


Agricultural exports (volume):
Bulk commodity exports

115.2

128.9

139.5

137.9

135.6

135.1

136.9

Agricultural imports (value):


Livestock, dairy, and poultry
Livestock and meats
Dairy products
Grain and feeds
Grain products
Oilseeds and products
Vegetable oils
Horticultural products
Fruits and vegetables, fresh
Fruits and vegetables, processed
Wine and beer
Sugar and tropical products
Sugar and related products
Cocoa, coffee, and products
Other imports

10.7
7.6
2.7
7.4
4.5
5.4
3.7
33.0
10.3
6.9
7.5
15.3
3.3
7.4
1.6

10.8
7.9
2.4
7.5
4.9
5.3
3.8
35.5
12.0
6.8
7.7
18.3
4.1
8.6
1.6

11.5
8.5
2.5
8.2
5.4
5.6
4.0
38.5
13.3
7.3
8.1
20.3
4.6
9.5
1.6

12.4
9.3
2.6
8.4
5.7
5.9
4.2
40.8
14.1
7.8
8.6
21.3
5.1
9.9
1.7

12.8
9.6
2.7
8.7
6.0
6.2
4.5
42.6
14.8
8.1
8.9
21.9
5.1
10.2
1.7

13.2
9.8
2.8
9.1
6.3
6.5
4.7
44.3
15.4
8.4
9.3
22.6
5.2
10.6
1.7

13.5
10.0
2.9
9.5
6.6
6.8
5.0
46.2
16.1
8.8
9.6
23.3
5.3
11.0
1.7

13.8
10.2
3.0
9.9
6.9
7.2
5.2
48.2
16.9
9.1
10.0
24.1
5.4
11.4
1.7

14.2
10.5
3.1
10.3
7.2
7.5
5.5
50.2
17.6
9.5
10.4
24.8
5.6
11.8
1.8

14.7
10.8
3.2
10.8
7.6
7.9
5.8
52.3
18.4
9.8
10.8
25.7
5.7
12.3
1.8

15.2
11.2
3.3
11.3
8.0
8.3
6.1
54.5
19.3
10.2
11.2
26.5
5.9
12.8
1.8

15.7
11.5
3.4
11.8
8.4
8.8
6.5
56.9
20.2
10.6
11.6
27.4
6.0
13.2
1.8

Total agricultural imports

73.4

79.0

85.5

90.5

93.9

97.4

101.0

104.9

108.9

113.2

117.6

122.3

Net agricultural trade balance


22.9
29.7
41.0
31.9
26.2
23.7
23.0
Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture and Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce.

22.1

21.4

20.6

19.8

18.6

Billion dollars

U.S. trade value projections were completed in November 2010. For updates of the nearby year forecasts, see USDA's Outlook for U.S.
Agricultural Trade report, published in February, May, August, and November.
Notes: Other exports includes tobacco, seeds, sugar and tropical products, and beverages. Bulk commodity exports covers wheat, rice, feed
grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. High-value product (HVP) exports is calculated as total exports less bulk commodities. HVP's include
semiprocessed and processed grains and oilseeds, animals and animal products, horticultural products, and sugar and tropical products. Other
imports include cotton, tobacco, and planting seeds.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

97

Table 39. Prices received by farmers, selected food commodities, long-term projections
CPI category
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Price indexes:
Food commodities 1

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

1990-92=100
128.0

144.0

146.8

151.4

153.4

153.9

154.4

155.3

156.7

158.8

161.0

163.0

Food grains
Oil-bearing crops
Fruit and nuts

186.0
177.0
135.0

177.0
173.0
150.0

207.3
192.0
148.6

198.0
188.8
150.9

188.6
183.4
153.2

186.8
182.6
155.6

187.4
183.4
158.0

189.4
183.4
160.4

190.0
184.3
162.9

192.0
184.3
165.4

192.7
185.2
167.9

194.8
185.2
170.5

Vegetables 2

158.4

164.4

166.2

167.6

169.0

170.4

171.8

173.3

174.7

176.1

177.5

179.0

Meat animals
Dairy products
Poultry and eggs

105.0
98.0
139.0

124.0
125.0
151.0

128.4
125.0
151.4

137.6
129.2
158.0

142.5
130.4
163.8

142.1
131.9
166.9

140.9
133.0
169.7

140.9
134.9
171.7

141.8
136.5
174.0

144.3
138.7
176.5

147.1
141.0
178.9

149.9
142.6
181.4

Changes in price indexes:


Food commodities 1
Food grains
Oil-bearing crops
Fruit and nuts
Vegetables 2

Percent
6.5

12.5

1.9

3.1

1.3

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.3

1.4

1.2

39.2
47.4
-6.3

-4.8
-2.3
11.1

17.1
11.0
-0.9

-4.5
-1.7
1.5

-4.7
-2.9
1.5

-1.0
-0.4
1.6

0.3
0.4
1.5

1.1
0.0
1.5

0.3
0.5
1.6

1.1
0.0
1.5

0.4
0.5
1.5

1.1
0.0
1.5

1.5

3.8

1.1

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Meat animals
-0.8
18.1
3.5
7.2
3.6
-0.3
-0.8
0.0
0.6
1.8
1.9
1.9
Dairy products
-4.1
27.6
0.0
3.4
0.9
1.2
0.8
1.4
1.2
1.6
1.7
1.1
Poultry and eggs
7.9
8.6
0.3
4.4
3.7
1.9
1.7
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1/ The aggregate price index for food commodities is a w eighted average using NASS relative w eights, w hich are based on average shares
of farm cash receipts from 1990 to 1992. 2/ The price index for vegetables is a w eighted average of the index for commercial vegetables and
the index for potatoes and dry beans.
Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Prices ; Economic Research Service.

98

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

Table 40. Consumer food price indexes and food expenditures, long-term projections
CPI category
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

1982-84=100

Consumer price indices


All food

2015

217.955 219.625

225.5

232.0

237.9

243.3

248.7

254.4

260.1

266.2

272.5

279.0

Food aw ay from home

223.272 226.114

231.1

237.6

244.3

250.7

257.2

263.9

270.8

277.8

285.0

292.4

Food at home

215.124 215.836

222.3

228.8

234.2

239.1

243.9

248.9

254.0

259.6

265.4

271.3

Meats
Beef and veal
Pork
Other meats
Poultry
Fish and seafood
Eggs
Dairy products

200.545
218.273
181.366
194.901
204.220
240.556
190.024
197.013

206.232
224.511
189.957
194.787
203.978
243.229
192.833
199.245

212.4
231.3
196.6
198.5
209.3
250.5
198.6
209.0

222.5
243.3
207.0
203.7
217.3
258.0
207.0
214.5

227.9
248.5
213.4
207.9
221.5
265.7
217.8
218.5

230.1
250.0
216.0
211.4
223.5
273.7
227.0
223.0

231.5
250.8
217.1
214.8
225.1
281.9
236.3
227.5

233.4
252.1
219.1
218.0
226.9
290.4
242.4
232.5

235.8
254.4
221.3
221.3
229.4
299.1
246.3
237.0

239.5
258.7
224.0
224.6
232.6
308.1
250.2
242.0

243.4
263.6
226.7
228.0
235.6
317.3
254.2
247.5

247.4
268.6
229.4
231.4
238.4
326.8
258.9
252.5

Fats and oils


Fruits and vegetables
Sugar and sw eets
Cereals and bakery products
Nonalcoholic beverages
Other foods

201.224
272.945
196.933
252.567
163.034
205.497

200.587
273.458
201.242
250.449
161.602
204.553

208.1
281.8
206.0
257.0
164.0
208.3

212.7
287.9
210.4
263.4
167.3
212.5

217.8
294.9
215.1
269.1
171.5
217.6

223.2
302.1
220.0
275.2
175.8
222.9

228.7
309.3
225.0
281.9
180.2
228.2

234.4
316.7
230.0
289.0
184.7
233.6

240.1
324.2
235.2
296.4
189.3
239.2

246.1
331.8
240.5
304.0
194.0
245.0

252.3
339.6
245.9
311.6
198.9
250.9

258.5
347.4
251.5
319.6
203.9
256.9

Billion dollars

Food expenditures:
All food
Food at home
Food aw ay from home

1,182.0
607.4
574.5

1,213.6 1,257.2 1,307.0 1,356.7 1,406.2 1,457.2 1,511.2 1,567.7 1,627.2 1,689.2 1,753.6
622.0
643.7
665.8
684.9
703.3
722.1
742.2
763.2
785.8
809.2
833.2
591.6
613.5
641.2
671.8
702.9
735.1
769.0
804.5
841.4
880.0
920.4
Percent

Changes in consumer food prices:


All food

1.8

0.8

2.7

2.9

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

Food aw ay from home

3.5

1.3

2.2

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

Food at home

0.5

0.3

3.0

2.9

2.4

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.2

-0.6
-1.0
-2.0
2.3
1.7
3.6
-14.7
-6.4

2.8
2.9
4.7
-0.1
-0.1
1.1
1.5
1.1

3.0
3.0
3.5
1.9
2.6
3.0
3.0
4.9

4.8
5.2
5.3
2.6
3.8
3.0
4.2
2.6

2.4
2.1
3.1
2.1
1.9
3.0
5.2
1.9

1.0
0.6
1.2
1.7
0.9
3.0
4.2
2.1

0.6
0.3
0.5
1.6
0.7
3.0
4.1
2.0

0.8
0.5
0.9
1.5
0.8
3.0
2.6
2.2

1.0
0.9
1.0
1.5
1.1
3.0
1.6
1.9

1.6
1.7
1.2
1.5
1.4
3.0
1.6
2.1

1.6
1.9
1.2
1.5
1.3
3.0
1.6
2.3

1.6
1.9
1.2
1.5
1.2
3.0
1.8
2.0

2.3
-2.1
5.6
3.2
1.9
3.7

-0.3
0.2
2.2
-0.8
-0.9
-0.5

3.7
3.1
2.4
2.6
1.5
1.8

2.2
2.2
2.1
2.5
2.0
2.0

2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.4

2.5
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.4

2.5
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.4

2.5
2.4
2.2
2.5
2.5
2.4

2.4
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.5
2.4

2.5
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.5
2.4

2.5
2.4
2.2
2.5
2.5
2.4

2.5
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.5
2.4

Meats
Beef and veal
Pork
Other meats
Poultry
Fish and seafood
Eggs
Dairy products
Fats and oils
Fruits and vegetables
Sugar and sw eets
Cereals and bakery products
Nonalcoholic beverages
Other foods

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011

99

List of Tables
Table 1.
Table 2.
Table 3.
Table 4.
Table 5.
Table 6.
Table 7.
Table 8.
Table 9.
Table 10.
Table 11.
Table 12.
Table 13.
Table 14.
Table 15.
Table 16.
Table 17.
Table 18
Table 19.
Table 20.
Table 21.
Table 22.
Table 23.
Table 24.
Table 25.
Table 26.
Table 27.
Table 28.
Table 29.
Table 30.
Table 31.
Table 32.
Table 33.
Table 34.
Table 35.
Table 36.
Table 37.
Table 38.
Table 39.
Table 40.

100

Page
U.S. macroeconomic assumptions........................................................................................... 16
Global real GDP growth assumptions ..................................................................................... 17
Population growth assumptions............................................................................................... 18
Coarse grains trade long-term projections ............................................................................... 48
Corn trade long-term projections............................................................................................. 49
Barley trade long-term projections .......................................................................................... 50
Sorghum trade long-term projections ...................................................................................... 51
Wheat trade long-term projections .......................................................................................... 52
Rice trade long-term projections ............................................................................................. 53
Soybean trade long-term projections ....................................................................................... 54
Soybean meal trade long-term projections .............................................................................. 55
Soybean oil trade long-term projections.................................................................................. 55
Rapeseed trade long-term projections ..................................................................................... 56
All cotton trade long-term projections .................................................................................... 57
Beef trade long-term projections ............................................................................................. 58
Pork trade long-term projections ............................................................................................. 58
Poultry trade long-term projections ......................................................................................... 59
Acreage for major field crops and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) assumptions,
long-term projections ..................................................................................................... 69
U.S. corn long-term projections .............................................................................................. 70
U.S. sorghum long-term projections ....................................................................................... 71
U.S. barley long-term projections ........................................................................................... 72
U.S. oats long-term projections ............................................................................................... 73
U.S. wheat long-term projections ............................................................................................ 74
U.S. soybeans and products long-term projections ................................................................. 75
U.S. rice long-term projections, rough basis ........................................................................... 76
U.S. upland cotton long-term projections................................................................................ 77
U.S. sugar long-term projections ............................................................................................. 78
Horticultural crops long-term supply and use projections, calendar years .............................. 79
Horticultural crops long-term export and import projections, fiscal years .............................. 80
Per capita meat consumption, retail weight ............................................................................. 86
Beef long-term projections ...................................................................................................... 86
Pork long-term projections ...................................................................................................... 87
Young chicken long-term projections ..................................................................................... 87
Turkey long-term projections .................................................................................................. 88
Egg long-term projections ....................................................................................................... 88
Dairy long-term projections .................................................................................................... 89
Farm receipts, expenses, and income, long-term projections .................................................. 96
Summary of U.S. agricultural trade long-term projections, fiscal years ................................. 97
Prices received by farmers, selected food commodities, long-term projections ..................... 98
Consumer food price indexes and food expenditures, long-term projections ......................... 99

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011