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These spreadsheet exhibits relate to the case B&K Distributors: ROI for a Web-Based

Customer Portal, Case #KEL149.


2006 by the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University. This case was
prepared by Tim Riitters 02, in collaboration with Jim Anfield, VP of business development for
a leading Chicago-based Internet consulting firm, under the supervision of Professor Mark
Jeffery. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, call 800-545-7685 (or
617-783-7600 outside the United States or Canada) or e-mail custserv@hbsp.harvard.edu. No
part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a
spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any meanselectronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording, or otherwisewithout the permission of the Kellogg School of
Management.

Exhibit 5:
Franchise Penetration Over Time
Penetration Rate:

Year 0
50%

Year 1
60%

Year 2
65%

Year 3
68%

Year 4
70%

Year 5
70%

Exhibit 6:
Projected Tier Migration Over Time
A Tier
B Tier
C Tier

Year 0
25%
55%
20%
100%

Year 1
28%
58%
14%
100%

Year 2
30%
60%
10%
100%

Year 3
32%
60%
8%
100%

Year 4
33%
60%
7%
100%

Year 5
33%
60%
7%
100%

Exhibit 8:
Cost Per Order By Channel
Cost Per Order
Inflation Rate

Phone
Fax/Mail
$32.50
$25.00
3.0%
3.0%

Web
$3.00
1.0%

Exhibit 9:
Order Channel Migration Over Time
Percentage of Orders by Channel:
Year 0
Year 1
Phone
60%
60%
Fax / Mail
40%
35%
Web
0%
5%
Total
100%
100%

Year 2
57%
33%
10%
100%

Year 3
55%
30%
15%
100%

Year 4
52%
33%
15%
100%

Year 5
48%
32%
20%
100%

Exhibit 10:
Implementation Costs

Project manager
Marketing strategist
Graphic designer
Information architect
Software developer
Software engineer
Technical architect

Rate/Hr
$200
$300
$150
$200
$150
$150
$175

Full Time Equivalent (FTE) Percentage Per Month


Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
25%
75%
75%
50%
75%
20%
5%
5%
15%
75%
25%
10%
50%
75%
25%
7%
10%
50%
50%
50%
10%
50%
50%
50%
10%
100%
25%
5%

Project manager
Marketing strategist
Graphic designer
Information architect
Software developer
Software engineer
Technical architect
Total consulting costs
Outside specialists

Web hosting integration costs


(as a percentage of first-year hosting costs)
Grand total

8,000
36,000
3,600
16,000
2,400
2,400
2,800
$71,200

16,000
2,400
2,400
2,240
12,000
12,000
1,400
$48,440

Total
72,000
50,400
30,000
50,240
38,400
38,400
39,200
$318,640

24,000
9,600
18,000
24,000
12,000
12,000
28,000
$127,600

24,000
2,400
6,000
8,000
12,000
12,000
7,000
$71,400

Rate/Hr
$200

# of Hours
40

$8,000

Cost/Yr
Percentage
$120,000
50%

$60,000
$386,640

Exhibit 13:
Annual Support Costs
Web hosting

Monthly
# of Months
$10,000
12

Direct marketing costs


Consulting costs
Campaign strategist
Project manager
Other consulting
Total

$120,000
$100,000

Rate / Hr
$300
$200
$175

# of Hours
30
60
240

$9,000
$12,000
$42,000
$283,000

Kellogg School of Management

Exhibit 14A
B&K DistributorsROI ModelSummary Page
(Cifras en Miles)

1
Year 0

Ingresos
Proyeccin
Lnea base
Incremento
Valor Actual del incremento $
Ingresos/Utilidad Netos
Proyeccin
Lnea base
Incremento
Valor Actual del incremento $

Year 1

TIR (tasa interna de retorno)


Valor Actual Neto
COK
Tasa de Impuesto
Tasa de inflacin de los costos de
soporte

3
Year 3

3,400
3,400

4,643
3,608
1,035
924

5,619
3,828
1,791
1,428

6,487
4,062
2,425
1,726

411
411

583
436
147
131

734
463
272
216

878
491
387
275

(283)
(283)
(175)

(291)
(291)
(181)

(300)
(300)
(186)

(240)

(28)

91

201

40.61%
345
12%
38%
3%

VAN ao 1
(265)

VAN ao 2
(193)

VAN ao 3
(50)

Programa de inversin incremental (despus de impuestos)


Costos iniciales
(387)
Costo de operacin/soporte
Total
(387)
Total (despues de impuesto)
(240)

Incremento del Flujo de caja

2
Year 2

Kellogg School of Management

4
Year 4

5
Year 5

7,293
4,310
2,983
1,896

7,886
4,574
3,312
1,879

7,853,087.07

1,003
521
482
306

1,121
553
568
322

1,252,011.33

(309)
(309)
(192)

(319)
(319)
(197)

290

371

VAN ao 4
135

VAN ao 5
345

A partir del ao 4, el VAN es positivo, por lo tanto lo apropiado para el proyecto es que s
partir de este periodo en adelante, es decir, se puede asumir que mientras mas largo el
evaluacion mayores ganancias.

Kellogg School of Management

Variables
Penetracin
Migracin Cliente
A Tier
B Tier
C Tier

Mejora en el tamao de los pedidos

Year 0
50%

Year 1
60%

Year 2
65%

Year 3
68%

Year 4
70%

Year 0
25%
55%
20%
100%

Year 1
28%
58%
14%
100%

Year 2
30%
60%
10%
100%

Year 3
32%
60%
8%
100%

Year 4
33%
60%
7%
100%

6%

Migracin canal de ventas


Phone
Fax / Mail
Web
Total

o tanto lo apropiado para el proyecto es que se evalue a


r, se puede asumir que mientras mas largo el horizonte de

Year 0
60%
40%
0%
100%

Year 1
60%
35%
5%
100%

Year 2
57%
33%
10%
100%

Year 3
55%
30%
15%
100%

Year 4
52%
33%
15%
100%

Kellogg School of Management

Year 5
70%
Year 5
33%
60%
7%
100%

Year 5
48%
32%
20%
100%

ESPERADO

Page 18

ESPERADO

Page 19

ESPERADO

0.5

0.6

0.65

0.68

0.25
0.55

0.28
0.58

0.3
0.6

0.32
0.6

0.6

0.6

0.57

0.55

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.06

Page 20

ESPERADO

0.7

0.7

0.33
0.6

0.33
0.6

0.52

0.48

0.15

0.2

Page 21

PESIMISTA

Page 22

PESIMISTA

Page 23

PESIMISTA

0.5

0.55

0.55

0.6

0.25
0.55

0.28
0.58

0.3
0.6

0.32
0.6

0.6

0.6

0.57

0.55

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.06

Page 24

PESIMISTA

0.6

0.65

0.33
0.6

0.33
0.6

0.52

0.48

0.15

0.2

Page 25

OPTIMISTA

Page 26

OPTIMISTA

Page 27

OPTIMISTA

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.75

0.25
0.55

0.28
0.58

0.3
0.6

0.32
0.6

0.6

0.6

0.57

0.55

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.06

Page 28

OPTIMISTA

0.78

0.8

0.33
0.6

0.33
0.6

0.52

0.48

0.15

0.2

Page 29

Kellogg School of Management

Exhibit 14B
B&K DistributorsROI ModelUpside Projection
(Numbers in thousands)
Nmero de sucursales
Incremento

Year 0

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

3,400

3,468
2.0%

3,537
2.0%

3,608
2.0%

3,680
2.0%

3,754
2.0%

50.0%
1,700

60.0%
2,081

65.0%
2,299

68.0%
2,454

70.0%
2,576

70.0%
2,628

Estructura de los Niveles


Porcentaje
A # de sucursales
Nmero de pedidos

25%
425
12

28%
583
12

30%
690
12

32%
785
12

33%
850
12

33%
867
12

Porcentaje
# de sucursales
Nmero de pedidos

55%
935
8

58%
1,207
8

60%
1,380
8

60%
1,472
8

60%
1,546
8

60%
1,577
8

Porcentaje
# de sucursales
Nmero de pedidos

20%
340
3

14%
291
3

10%
230
3

8%
196
3

7%
180
3

7%
184
3

$250.00

$265.00
6.0%

$280.90
6.0%

$297.75
6.0%

$315.62
6.0%

$334.56
6.0%

5,100
7,480
1,020
13,600

6,991
9,655
874
17,520

8,277
11,037
690
20,004

9,421
11,777
589
21,787

10,202
12,366
541
23,108

10,406
12,613
552
23,571

1,275
1,870
255
3,400

1,853
2,559
232
4,643

2,325
3,100
194
5,619

2,805
3,507
175
6,487

3,220
3,903
171
7,293

3,481
4,220
185
7,886

68.70%

68.70%

68.70%

68.70%

68.70%

68.70%

78.25
29.50
49

82.95
29.25
54

87.92
28.71
59

93.20
28.19
65

98.79
28.77
70

104.72
27.99
77

13,600
49
663

17,520
54
941

20,004
59
1,184

21,787
65
1,416

23,108
70
1,618

23,571
77
1,808

38%
252

38%
357

38%
450

38%
538

38%
615

38%
687

Porcentaje de penetracin
Nmero de clientes

Tamao promedio por pedido


Incremento
Total de pedidos
nivel A
nivel B
nivel C
Total
Ingresos $
nivel A
nivel B
nivel C
Total $
Margen por unidad
COGS %
Ingreso bruto por pedido
Costo de procesamiento por pedido
Ingreso Neto por pedido
Account contribution
Operaciones
Ingreso Neto por pedido
Utilidad Neta
Impuesto
Tasa
Impuesto

Kellogg School of Management

Utilidad Neta despues de impuesto

411

583

734

878

1,003

1,121

Kellogg School of Management

Exhibit 14C
B&K DistributorsROI ModelBase Case Projection
(Numbers in thousands)
Number of franchise locations
Growth

Year 0
3,400

Year 1
Year 2
3,468
3,537
2.0%
2.0%

Year 3
3,608
2.0%

Year 4
3,680
2.0%

Penetration
Number of customers

50.0%
1,700

50.5%
1,751

51.0%
1,804

51.5%
1,859

52.0%
1,915

Tier structure
Percent
A # of locations
Order frequency

25%
425
12

25%
438
12

25%
451
12

25%
465
12

25%
479
12

Percent
# of locations
Order frequency

55%
935
8

55%
963
8

55%
992
8

55%
1,022
8

55%
1,053
8

Percent
# of locations
Order frequency

20%
340
3

20%
350
3

20%
361
3

20%
372
3

20%
383
3

$250.00 $257.50 $265.23


3.0%
3.0%

$273.18
3.0%

$281.38
3.0%

Average order size


Growth
Total transactions
A accounts
B accounts
C accounts
Total

5,100
7,480
1,020
13,600

5,254
7,706
1,051
14,011

5,413
7,939
1,083
14,434

5,576
8,178
1,115
14,870

5,745
8,425
1,149
15,319

1,275
1,870
255
3,400

1,353
1,984
271
3,608

1,436
2,106
287
3,828

1,523
2,234
305
4,062

1,616
2,371
323
4,310

Unit margin
COGS %
Gross margin per order
Processing cost per order
Net contribution per order

68.70%
78.25
29.50
49

68.70%
80.60
30.39
50

68.70%
83.02
31.30
52

68.70%
85.51
32.24
53

68.70%
88.07
33.20
55

Account contribution
Transactions
Net margin per order
Operating income

13,600
49
663

14,011
50
704

14,434
52
747

14,870
53
792

15,319
55
841

38%
252

38%
267

38%
284

38%
301

38%
319

Revenue
A accounts
B accounts
C accounts
Total

Tax
Tax rate
Tax

Kellogg School of Management

Net contribution after tax

411

436

463

491

521

Kellogg School of Management

Year 5
3,754
2.0%
52.6%
1,973

25%
493
12
55%
1,085
8
20%
395
3
$289.82
3.0%

5,918
8,680
1,184
15,781
1,715
2,516
343
4,574
68.70%
90.71
34.20
57
15,781
57
892
38%
339

Kellogg School of Management

553

Kellogg School of Management

Exhibit 14D
B&K DistributorsROI ModelAverage Transaction Cost Matrix
1
Year 0
Percentage of orders by channel:
Phone
Fax/mail
Web
Total

Year 1

2
Year 2

3
Year 3

4
Year 4

60%
40%
0%
100%

60%
35%
5%
100%

57%
33%
10%
100%

55%
30%
15%
100%

52%
33%
15%
100%

Cost per order:


Phone
Fax/mail
Web

$ 32.50
$ 25.00
$ 3.00

$ 33.48
$ 25.75
$ 3.03

$ 34.48
$ 26.52
$ 3.06

$ 35.51
$ 27.32
$ 3.09

$ 36.58
$ 28.14
$ 3.12

Weighted average cost


WAC without Web
Difference

$ 29.50
$ 29.50
$

$ 29.25
$ 30.39
$ 1.14

$ 28.71
$ 31.30
$ 2.58

$ 28.19
$ 32.24
$ 4.04

$ 28.77
$ 33.20
$ 4.43

Inflation increases:
Phone
Fax/mail
Web

3.00%
3.00%
1.00%

Kellogg School of Management

5
Year 5
48%
32%
20%
100%

$ 37.68
$ 28.98
$ 3.15
$ 27.99
$ 34.20
$ 6.21

Resumen del escenario


Valores actuales:

ESPERADO

PESIMISTA

Celdas cambiantes:
pen_1
50%
50%
50%
pen_2
60%
60%
55%
pen_3
65%
65%
55%
pen_4
68%
68%
60%
pen_5
70%
70%
60%
pen_6
70%
70%
65%
migra_a_0
25%
25%
25%
migra_a1
28%
28%
28%
migra_a2
30%
30%
30%
migra_a3
32%
32%
32%
migra_a4
33%
33%
33%
migra_a5
33%
33%
33%
tam_pedido
6%
6%
4%
web0
0%
0%
0%
web1
5%
5%
5%
web2
10%
10%
10%
web3
15%
15%
15%
web4
15%
15%
15%
web5
20%
20%
20%
migra_b_0
55%
55%
55%
migra_b1
58%
58%
58%
migra_b2
60%
60%
60%
migra_b3
60%
60%
60%
migra_b4
60%
60%
60%
migra_b5
60%
60%
60%
phone0
60%
60%
60%
phone1
60%
60%
60%
phone2
57%
57%
57%
phone3
55%
55%
55%
phone4
52%
52%
52%
phone5
48%
48%
48%
Celdas de resultado:
TIR
40.61%
40.61%
-10.07%
Notas: La columna de valores actuales representa los valores de las celdas cambiantes
en el momento en que se cre el Informe resumen de escenario. Las celdas cambiantes de
cada escenario se muestran en gris.

OPTIMISTA

eldas cambiantes
eldas cambiantes de

50%
60%
70%
75%
78%
80%
25%
28%
30%
32%
33%
33%
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
15%
20%
55%
58%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
57%
55%
52%
48%
56.92%

Resumen del escenario


Valores actuales:

ESPERADO

PESIMISTA

Celdas cambiantes:
pen_1
50%
50%
50%
pen_2
60%
60%
55%
pen_3
65%
65%
55%
pen_4
68%
68%
60%
pen_5
70%
70%
60%
pen_6
70%
70%
65%
migra_a_0
25%
25%
25%
migra_a1
28%
28%
28%
migra_a2
30%
30%
30%
migra_a3
32%
32%
32%
migra_a4
33%
33%
33%
migra_a5
33%
33%
33%
tam_pedido
6%
6%
6%
web0
0%
0%
0%
web1
5%
5%
5%
web2
10%
10%
10%
web3
15%
15%
15%
web4
15%
15%
15%
web5
20%
20%
20%
migra_b_0
55%
55%
55%
migra_b1
58%
58%
58%
migra_b2
60%
60%
60%
migra_b3
60%
60%
60%
migra_b4
60%
60%
60%
migra_b5
60%
60%
60%
phone0
60%
60%
60%
phone1
60%
60%
60%
phone2
57%
57%
57%
phone3
55%
55%
55%
phone4
52%
52%
52%
phone5
48%
48%
48%
Celdas de resultado:
$E$27
40.61%
40.61%
12.14%
Notas: La columna de valores actuales representa los valores de las celdas cambiantes
en el momento en que se cre el Informe resumen de escenario. Las celdas cambiantes de
cada escenario se muestran en gris.

OPTIMISTA

eldas cambiantes
eldas cambiantes de

50%
60%
70%
75%
78%
80%
25%
28%
30%
32%
33%
33%
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
15%
20%
55%
58%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
57%
55%
52%
48%
56.92%

Resumen del escenario


Valores actuales:

ESPERADO

PESIMISTA

Celdas cambiantes:
pen_1
50%
50%
50%
pen_2
60%
60%
55%
pen_3
65%
65%
55%
pen_4
68%
68%
60%
pen_5
70%
70%
60%
pen_6
70%
70%
65%
migra_a_0
25%
25%
25%
migra_a1
28%
28%
28%
migra_a2
30%
30%
30%
migra_a3
32%
32%
32%
migra_a4
33%
33%
33%
migra_a5
33%
33%
33%
tam_pedido
6%
6%
4%
web0
0%
0%
0%
web1
5%
5%
5%
web2
10%
10%
10%
web3
15%
15%
15%
web4
15%
15%
15%
web5
20%
20%
20%
migra_b_0
55%
55%
55%
migra_b1
58%
58%
58%
migra_b2
60%
60%
60%
migra_b3
60%
60%
60%
migra_b4
60%
60%
60%
migra_b5
60%
60%
60%
phone0
60%
60%
60%
phone1
60%
60%
60%
phone2
57%
57%
57%
phone3
55%
55%
55%
phone4
52%
52%
52%
phone5
48%
48%
48%
Celdas de resultado:
VAN
345
345
(213)
Notas: La columna de valores actuales representa los valores de las celdas cambiantes
en el momento en que se cre el Informe resumen de escenario. Las celdas cambiantes de
cada escenario se muestran en gris.

OPTIMISTA

eldas cambiantes
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618