Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2117, USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2117, USA
c Hydraulics Division, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak 34469, Istanbul, Turkey
ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is widely used to characterize droughts. The PDSI is based
on the water balance equation over an area of concern. Calculating PDSI requires data on precipitation, temperature,
soil moisture, and the previous PDSI value. While precipitation and temperature time series data are easily available for
most locations, it is not always the case with soil moisture due to the lack of soil-moisture monitoring networks. This
study developed a wavelet fuzzy logic model (WFL) to overcome the problem. The proposed model employs commonly
available precipitation, temperature, and large-scale climate indices as predictors and PDSI as a predictand. The WFL
model is applied to ten climate divisions in Texas and its performance is compared with conventional fuzzy logic (FL)
model performance. It is shown that the WFL model outperforms the FL model. The variation of WFL model performance
along with the average wavelet spectra of precipitation time series is evaluated. Results show that the WFL model is
capable of predicting PDSI. Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
KEY WORDS
Palmer Drought Severity Index; continuous wavelet transform; fuzzy logic; average wavelet spectra
1.
Introduction
2022
M. OZGER et al.
2.
follows:
d = P P = P (PE + PR + PRO + PL) (1)
where = ET PE = R PR = RO PRO = L PL
for 12 months. The terms are actual evapotranspiration
(ET) and potential evapotranspiration (PE); recharge (R)
and potential recharge (PR); runoff (RO) and potential
runoff (PRO); net loss (L) and potential loss (PL). A
Palmer Moisture Anomaly Index (PMAI), Z, for an ith
month is then defined as follows:
Zi = Ki di
(2)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Data
There are five distinct climate zones in Texas showing the variation from arid to sub-tropic humid zones
(Figure 1(a)). Texas is divided into ten climate divisions
by the National Climatic Data Center (Figure 1(b)). Each
climate division exhibits its own specific characteristics,
such as vegetation, temperature, humidity, rainfall, and
seasonal weather. Representative data are calculated for
each division by taking the stations which are within
the borders of that division and then averaging over all
stations. Precipitation, temperature, drought indices, and
other variables are reported using these divisions.
PDSI indicates the severity of a wet or dry spell
and is reported monthly. PDSI, which is a standardized index, is used in the assessment of meteorological
droughts. It is also considered a hydrological drought
indicator due to its relation to evapotranspiration and
soil moisture. It is capable of representing the spatial
content of droughts. While negative values stand for
dry spells, wet spells are represented by positive values. The PDSI data on a 20 latitude 30 longitude
grid were obtained from a nearest neighbour gridding
procedure of Cook et al. (1999). PDSI, precipitation
and temperature time series for each climate division
Int. J. Climatol. 31: 20212032 (2011)
2023
Climate divisions
Continental
(a)
36
(b)
1
34
34
2
Sub-tropic
semi-humid
32
Arid
30
32
Sub-tropic humid
Semiarid
30
7
8
28
28
26
10
26
-106
-104
-102
-100
-98
-96
-94
-106
-104
-102
-100
-98
-96
-94
Figure 1. (a) Climate zones and (b) climate divisions for Texas.
4.
Methodology
(7)
(8)
(9)
2024
M. OZGER et al.
N
Final output =
wi zi
i=1
N
(10)
wi
i=1
(11)
W n X (s) =
Xj
j =1
(j n)t
s
(12)
(b)
10
0
0
(1)
50
(2)
100
(3)
150
200
(4)
250
300
350
(5)
400
Figure 2. (a) Continuous wavelet map of PDSI series for climate division 7 and its corresponding (b) average wavelet spectra over the period
19002007. There are five significant bands detected from average spectra which are <23, 2366, 66111, 111264, and >264 months. This
figure is available in colour online at wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/joc
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
2025
5.
2026
M. OZGER et al.
Table I. Results of FL and WFL modelling of PDSI for each ten climate divisions.
CDs
Inputs
FL
WFL
Train
R
CD-1
CD-2
CD-3
CD-4
CD-5
CD-6
CD-7
CD-8
CD-9
CD-10
Test
2
Correlation
coefficient
0.515
0.492
0.816
0.486
0.186
0.474
0.437
0.462
0.451
0.282
0.543
0.475
0.503
0.468
0.252
0.567
0.519
0.530
0.518
0.213
0.539
0.513
0.526
0.507
0.253
0.565
0.499
0.558
0.493
0.340
0.534
0.487
0.529
0.477
0.293
0.559
0.524
0.555
0.507
0.250
0.502
0.474
0.495
0.447
0.013
0.528
0.434
0.500
0.429
0.282
0.175
0.062
0.162
0.082
0.023
0.221
0.098
0.255
0.138
0.106
0.171
0.109
0.176
0.063
0.030
0.228
0.159
0.226
0.178
0.074
0.285
0.261
0.282
0.267
0.069
0.301
0.314
0.284
0.272
0.004
0.341
0.277
0.341
0.247
0.113
0.330
0.258
0.357
0.223
0.049
0.261
0.249
0.275
0.210
0.006
0.367
0.205
0.318
0.192
0.162
Train
2
Correlation
coefficient
0.533
0.473
0.715
0.484
0.334
0.502
0.419
0.534
0.457
0.095
0.472
0.453
0.472
0.409
0.297
0.505
0.470
0.505
0.485
0.071
0.550
0.512
0.549
0.520
0.293
0.614
0.568
0.592
0.528
0.332
0.590
0.528
0.588
0.501
0.342
0.580
0.543
0.606
0.514
0.268
0.514
0.519
0.538
0.480
0.009
0.632
0.451
0.590
0.437
0.468
0.7873
0.7537
0.7131
0.6615
0.091
0.697
0.7917
0.752
0.6452
0.115
0.674
0.657
0.648
0.669
0.145
0.698
0.682
0.656
0.648
0.111
0.645
0.619
0.606
0.588
0.129
0.664
0.642
0.644
0.631
0.170
0.698
0.680
0.678
0.668
0.228
0.652
0.649
0.639
0.647
0.135
0.676
0.658
0.662
0.656
0.140
0.544
0.524
0.527
0.506
0.086
Test
2
Correlation
coefficient
0.8882
0.8705
0.845
0.8138
0.303
0.836
0.89
0.8676
0.8067
0.342
0.822
0.811
0.805
0.819
0.383
0.836
0.826
0.810
0.805
0.336
0.815
0.798
0.790
0.778
0.387
0.815
0.801
0.803
0.794
0.412
0.836
0.825
0.824
0.817
0.477
0.810
0.808
0.802
0.807
0.372
0.824
0.814
0.816
0.812
0.377
0.756
0.742
0.745
0.731
0.337
0.4202
0.5485
0.5175
0.6035
0.050
0.334
0.4163
0.3921
0.4893
0.101
0.369
0.339
0.367
0.346
0.015
0.379
0.441
0.496
0.491
0.127
0.523
0.601
0.596
0.614
0.018
0.573
0.557
0.603
0.560
0.017
0.492
0.568
0.538
0.561
0.026
0.530
0.529
0.537
0.516
0.097
0.622
0.630
0.582
0.610
0.081
0.636
0.583
0.617
0.589
0.139
Correlation
coefficient
0.6876
0.7525
0.7198
0.7774
0.155
0.639
0.6854
0.6489
0.7149
0.334
0.715
0.707
0.728
0.681
0.258
0.703
0.726
0.766
0.764
0.088
0.740
0.790
0.779
0.796
0.105
0.760
0.750
0.782
0.755
0.358
0.727
0.763
0.752
0.765
0.365
0.764
0.761
0.775
0.765
0.192
0.797
0.806
0.786
0.800
0.298
0.812
0.778
0.799
0.784
0.421
2027
PDSI CD-1
25
12
10
20
Power (%)
Power (%)
8
15
10
6
4
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
300
350
400
300
350
400
300
350
400
300
350
400
Period (months)
Period (months)
PDSI CD-2
PREC CD-2
14
10
12
8
Power (%)
Power (%)
10
8
6
4
2
2
0
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
100
PREC CD-3
150
200
250
Period (months)
Period (months)
PDSI CD-3
12
10
Power (%)
Power (%)
8
4
6
4
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
100
Period (months)
10
8
Power (%)
Power (%)
250
PDSI CD-4
12
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
100
Period (months)
150
200
250
Period (months)
PDSI CD-5
PREC CD-5
20
10
Power (%)
15
Power (%)
200
Period (months)
PREC CD-4
150
10
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Period (months)
50
100
150
200
250
Period (months)
Figure 4. Average wavelet spectra of precipitation and PDSI time series. This figure is available in colour online at wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/joc
2028
M. OZGER et al.
PREC CD-6
PDSI CD-6
10
Power (%)
Power (%)
5
4
3
2
2
1
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
100
Period (months)
200
250
300
350
400
300
350
400
300
350
400
300
350
400
300
350
400
Period (months)
PREC CD-7
150
PDSI CD-7
10
Power (%)
Power (%)
5
4
3
2
2
1
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
100
Period (months)
200
250
Period (months)
PREC CD-8
5.5
150
PDSI CD-8
10
5
8
Power (%)
Power (%)
4.5
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
100
PREC CD-9
10
150
200
250
Period (months)
Period (months)
PDSI CD-9
15
Power (%)
Power (%)
10
6
5
2
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
100
Period (months)
250
PDSI CD-10
14
12
10
10
Power (%)
8
Power (%)
200
Period (months)
PREC CD-10
12
150
6
4
8
6
4
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
Period (months)
100
150
200
250
Period (months)
Figure 4. (Continued).
2029
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
Figure 5. (ae)Time series of the five observed and predicted wavelet bands for climate division 7 PDSIs, and (f) final reconstructed and observed
PDSI time series. This figure is available in colour online at wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/joc
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
<33
<28
<33
<27
<33
<11
<23
<27
<16
<23
3366
2846
3355
2766
33111
1166
2366
2746
1639
2333
66111
46132
55132
66187
111132
66111
66111
46111
3978
3378
111222
132187
132222
187264
132264
111264
111264
111264
78187
78187
>222
>187
>222
>264
>264
>264
>264
>264
>187
>187
power at the 6070-month band, PDO exhibits a significant power at around 6070 and 300340-month bands.
The wavelet spectra of the temperature time series for all
Int. J. Climatol. 31: 20212032 (2011)
2030
M. OZGER et al.
(a)
(c)
(b)
Figure 6. (a) Observed and predicted time series of PDSI for climate division 7. FL and WFL models were employed to predict PDSI from
NINO 3.4, precipitation, and temperature. Scatter diagrams of observed and predicted PDSI in validation period (19712006) for (b) wavelet
fuzzy logic model (WFL), and (c) fuzzy logic (FL) model. This figure is available in colour online at wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/joc
NINO 3.4
12
bands are significant which indicate the presence of different precipitation generating mechanisms.
Since the wavelet spectra of precipitation and the
WFL model results show different patterns throughout
the climate divisions, a possible relation between these
spectra and the WFL model performance scores (R 2 ) can
be expected. Investigation of average wavelet plots along
with R 2 values reveals that the WFL model performs
better in the climate divisions where the annual cycle
of precipitation is dominant. However, the accuracy
of WFL model reduces in the places where multiple
(b)
PDO
16
14
10
12
Power (%)
Power (%)
8
6
4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
0
50
100
150
200
250
Period (months)
300
350
400
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Period (months)
Figure 7. Average wavelet spectra for (a) NINO 3.4 and (b) PDO index. This figure is available in colour online at wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/joc
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
2031
50
50
40
40
Power (%)
Power (%)
TEMP CD-5
60
30
20
10
0
30
20
10
50
50
Period (months)
Figure 8. Average wavelet spectra of temperature time series for (a) climate division 5 located in arid zone and (b) climate division 8
located in sub-tropic humid zone. Same pattern of variation is seen for other climate divisions. This figure is available in colour online at
wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/joc
6.
Conclusions
Prediction of PDSI is achieved from precipitation, temperature, and large scale climate indices by using WFL,
which is a relatively new methodology. This method is
applied to ten climate regions in Texas to model PDSI.
The model results are compared to FL approach. The
following conclusions can be drawn from this study:
1. The WFL model predicts PDSI satisfactorily from precipitation and temperature. This enables to determine
PDSI in the absence of soil moisture information and
other parameters required for the calculation of PDSI.
Inversely, it is possible to estimate soil moisture from
the predicted PDSI values.
2. A significant improvement is obtained over the FL
model in the prediction of PDSI by using WFL which
is capable of modelling more complex systems.
3. The effect of large-scale climate indices on the prediction of PDSI is not important. While in some climate
divisions they improve the WFL model performance
slightly, in general their impact on prediction is minor.
Precipitation and temperature are the main predictors
for PDSI.
4. The evaluation of average wavelet spectra of predictor
variables reveals that only precipitation time series
exhibits different spectral patterns throughout climate
divisions. Temperature time series shows nearly the
same pattern which is a significant power at 12 months
for all climate divisions.
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
2032
M. OZGER et al.