Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
2 Precipitation
Prof. Dr. Stefan Uhlenbrook
Professor of Hydrology
UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education
Westvest 7
2611 AX Delft
The Netherlands
E-mail: s.uhlenbrook@unesco-ihe.org
Acknowledgements
for the material used in this lecture
Dr. Pieter de Laat, prof. Huub Savenije, UNESCO-IHE, Delft,
The Netherlands
(wrote the course note; some pictures)
Prof. Tim Link, Idaho, USA
(some PPT slides and pictures)
Prof. Chris Leibundgut, University of Freiburg
(some PPT slides and pictures)
Prof. Demetris Koutsoyiannis (Athens, Greece) and prof.
Andreas Langousis (Cambridge, USA)
(some PPT slides and pictures)
Precipitation
Rain (light - heavy), snow, drizzle, hail, ...
Formed from water vapor in the atmosphere:
Snow
Rain
Ice
liquid
Ice
Dew
Precipitation
Rain (light - heavy), snow, drizzle, hail, ...
Formed from water vapor in the atmosphere:
Vapor Pressure
Partial pressure of H2O in air is the vapor
pressure
Units of pressure are: Pascals (Pa)
M L-1 T-2 : kg m-1 s-2
Also expressed in bars, millibars (mb)
1 bar = 100,000 Pa = 1x105 Pa
1 mb = 100 Pa = 1x102 Pa
Less frequently
atm, psi, mm Hg, inH2O
N2
N2
N2
CO2
CO2
O2
O2
H2O
CO2
N2
H2O
N2
O2
CO2
O2
N2
CO2
H2O
Air Supersaturated
With Respect to Water
3
Air Undersaturated
With Respect to Water
0
-5
10
15
20
25
30
Temperature (C)
30.4
17.3
9.4
4.9
2.2
0.9
Temperature (C)
+30
+20
+10
-10
-20
es 0.611 exp
Ts 237.3
vapor pressure in kPa
temperature in C
ed
100
Relative humidity [%]: RH =
es
Measures of Humidity
Vapor pressure (ea)
partial pressure of H2O vapor in air
Relative humidity:
RH =
ed
100
es
Example Calculation
On a warm summer day, the air temperature is
reported to be 29C with a relative humidity of
40%
What is the saturated vapor pressure?
What is the dew point temperature?
In the evening, the temperature drops to 16C
What is the relative humidity?
Exercise
Given:
wet bulb temperature tw= 23 oC
dry bulb temperature ta= 35 oC
What is the relative humidity?
1. calculate es(ta)=5.65 kPa
2. calculate ed=es(tw)-(ta-tw)
=2.82-0.066(35-23)=2.03
3. RH=2.03/5.65=36%
Remark: change of actual temperature of atmosphere with height is often not linear!
Causes of Precipitation
(Processes that produce uplift of air masses)
Convection
Warm air rises (due to energy input), cools, and forms
clouds and potentially thunderstorms
Fronts
E.g. warm, wet air (lighter, above) front rides over cold dry
air (heavier, beneath)
Convective
Storms
Convective Storms
Air rises (vertical instability), cools, condensation,
precipitation
Causes of Precipitation
(Processes that produce uplift of air masses)
Convection
Warm air rises (due to energy input), cools, and forms
clouds and potentially thunderstorms
Fronts
E.g. warm, wet air (lighter, above) front rides over cold dry
air (heavier, beneath)
Frontal Precipitation
(Koutsoyiannis and
Xanthopoulos, 1999)
Frontal Precipitation
Very common in humid temperate zone
(west wind zone), in particular during fall,
winter and spring
Form - rain or snow
A front comes in .
Causes of Precipitation
(Processes that produce uplift of air masses)
Convection
Warm air rises (due to energy input), cools, and forms
clouds and potentially thunderstorms
Fronts
E.g. warm, wet air (lighter, above) front rides over cold dry
air (heavier, beneath)
Orographic Precipitation
AIR MASS
Rain /
Snow
Rain
Ocean
Rain shadow
Example
Orographic
precipitation is
difficult to
catch with a
picture
Orographic Precipitation
Common in mountainous regions, sometimes
connected to frontal systems
Causes of Precipitation
(Processes that produce uplift of air masses)
Convection
Warm air rises (due to energy input), cools, and forms
clouds and potentially thunderstorms
Fronts
E.g. warm, wet air (lighter, above) front rides over cold dry
air (heavier, beneath)
11/11/2012
40
Precipitation
through
convergence
at ITCZ
- Monsoon
- defines rainy /
dry seasons
- one or two rain
seasons depending
on ITCZ movement
Causes of Precipitation
(Processes that produce uplift of air masses)
Convection
Warm air rises (due to energy input), cools, and forms
clouds and potentially thunderstorms
Fronts
E.g. warm, wet air (lighter, above) front rides over cold dry
air (heavier, beneath)
(Koutsoyiannis and
Langousis, 2009 )
(Koutsoyiannis and
Langousis, 2009 )
Precipitation Parameters
Amount of precipitation units of depth (e.g. l/m2 =
mm)
Rainfall-intensity distribution
Typical
percentage
mass
curves
of
rainfall
for
(Dingman, 2001)
Magnitude-duration relationship for the world and the UK extreme rainfalls (source:
Ward & Robinson, 1990).
(Koutsoyiannis and
Langousis, 2009 )
Spatial homogeneity:
Pest
1 r
P rb
0.8
Kagans formula:
0.6
0.4
(r) = 0 e
0.2
r0
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Rain type
Period 1 hour
ro
po
(km)
Period 1 day
ro
po
(km)
Period 1 month
ro
po
(km)
0.80
10
0.88
50
0.95
20
0.85
50
0.92
1500
0.98
100
0.95
1000
0.98
5000
0.99
DDF
Depth-Duration-Frequency curves
IDF
Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves
Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves
Linear scale
Depth-Duration-Frequency curves
Linear scale
250
T= 1
T = 10
T = 100
200
150
100
50
0
0
4
6
8
Duration (days)
10
50
T= 1
T = 10
T = 100
40
30
20
10
0
0
4
6
8
Duration (days)
10
Data screening
Never assume that meteorological data are of
consistent good quality!
1. Tabular comparison
2. Time series plotting (visual inspection)
See workshop
APRIL
P425
P119
P5
P6
58/59
59/60
60/61
61/62
62/63
63/64
64/65
65/66
66/67
67/68
68/69
69/70
70/71
71/72
72/73
73/74
74/75
75/76
76/77
3.1
124.1
55.7
63.5
60.5
60.0
25.0
16.4
132.2
16.9
161.7
10.2
91.0
34.1
48.5
40.3
62.2
63.7
10.2
8.5
179.8
47.4
81.6
31.3
96.9
33.6
15.3
114.4
32.6
110.0
9.5
95.9
74.5
98.0
115.3
107.4
76.1
22.6
12.4
145.7
65.0
72.6
54.5
47.2
31.0
8.5
130.6
83.3
99.4
14.8
94.0
35.6
59.2
104.0
61.0
57.0
37.5
16.0
102.6
116.6
59.2
61.1
25.4
42.0
30.9
78.2
24.3
143.7
9.0
86.6
24.9
53.9
48.4
126.3
57.9
18.9
AVG
STD
MIN
MAX
56.8
42.8
3.1
161.7
71.1
45.2
8.5
179.8
63.9
37.4
8.5
145.7
59.3
38.9
9.0
143.7
Example of tabular
comparison of monthly
rainfall values of 4 stations
(P5, P6, P119 and P425) in
the Ubeluzi catchment in
Mozambique
January
P425
51/52
52/53
53/54
54/55
55/56
56/57
57/58
58/59
59/60
60/61
61/62
62/63
63/64
64/65
65/66
66/67
67/68
68/69
69/70
70/71
71/72
72/73
73/74
74/75
75/76
76/77
77/78
78/79
79/80
80/81
81/82
84.5
162.6
62.9
164.2
68.6
57.9
171.1
175.3
79.5
56.0
142.4
95.7
249.0
12.3
546.8
76.6
121.5
157.7
4.7
51.8
218.0
56.7
108.6
81.3
210.2
44.3
122.0
122.5
62.2
160.0
29.2
P119
108.8
305.4
84.2
293.8
123.0
87.4
253.1
123.7
63.5
49.1
118.1
115.8
173.2
56.2
672.2
190.1
113.7
188.7
13.0
98.6
320.6
57.2
209.6
183.8
416.7
150.9
354.0
171.2
157.7
112.5
96.1
P5
P6
114.2
186.2
87.4
154.1
85.6
66.2
216.2
162.9
76.4
110.0
93.1
111.8
210.3
14.3
625.1
48.5
92.0
125.5
98.4
87.9
156.8
79.1
151.7
138.7
311.4
77.0
305.6
60.5
52.9
183.2
31.7
70.8
172.3
44.3
235.0
54.9
59.8
171.7
79.5
84.3
84.5
188.6
84.7
215.5
40.4
587.6
162.1
71.4
111.4
9.6
53.1
210.4
63.3
299.5
232.3
275.0
115.5
202.9
129.0
33.8
194.4
24.5
P425
sum
0
84.5
247.1
310.0
474.2
542.8
600.7
771.8
947.1
1026.6
1082.6
1225.0
1320.7
1569.7
1582.0
2128.8
2205.4
2326.9
2484.6
2489.3
2541.1
2759.1
2815.8
2924.4
3005.7
3215.9
3260.2
3382.2
3504.7
3566.9
3726.9
3756.2
Average
P119,P5,P6
0
97.9
319.2
391.2
618.8
706.7
777.8
991.5
1113.5
1188.2
1269.4
1402.7
1506.8
1706.5
1743.4
2371.7
2505.3
2597.7
2739.5
2779.9
2859.7
3089.0
3155.5
3375.8
3560.7
3895.1
4009.6
4297.1
4417.3
4498.8
4662.1
4712.9
Double mass
analysis
For monthly
rainfall data
(January) 1951 1982
Stations P425
vs. the mean of
P5, P6 and P119
Mass curves
5000
P425
Data Screening
Acummulated rainfall in mm
4500
4000
3500
Double
mass
analysis
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
80/81
78/79
76/77
74/75
72/73
70/71
68/69
66/67
64/65
62/63
60/61
58/59
56/57
54/55
52/53
Year
400
81/82
79/80
77/78
75/76
-100
73/74
5000
71/72
4000
69/70
3000
67/68
2000
65/66
1000
63/64
61/62
59/60
500
100
57/58
1000
200
55/56
1500
300
53/54
2000
51/52
2500
4000
T(X>X0)
T =
1
T
P = 1 - 1
T
150
at Stah
125
100
threshold
75
50
25
0
25-Mar-60
2-Dec-73
11-Aug-87
19-Apr-01
Flood frequency
analysis
(peak flows):
Annual max.
series
vs.
partial duration
series
(Davie, 2002)
1/T = 1- e-(1/Tp)
T : return period using annual max. series
Tp: return period using partial duration series
56
52
60
70
34
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Rainfall
amount
(mm)
70
60
56
52
48
44
40
38
34
30
p
Probability
exceedence
0.09
0.18
0.27
0.36
0.45
0.54
0.64
0.73
0.82
0.91
T
Return
period
11.0
5.5
3.7
2.8
2.2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.1
30
44
48
40
1980
38
Estimate probability of
exceedance:
m
p =
N
Weibull:
m
p =
N +1
Gringerton:
m 0.44
p =
N + 0.12
Classical
rain gauge
according to
Hellmann
usually read
daily at 7 AM
Precipitation Measurement
The Principal
Fig. 2.4
Rain gauges
Annual
totalisator
Read once
in a year,
or once per
season
200 cm2
Pluviograph
Rainfall intensity gauge
- Different types
1.
2.
3.
4.
Tipping
bucket
Wippe
System Joss-Tognini
WippeTipping bucket
81-8Gerte
Meteorological
station
Measurement of
solid precipitation
is VERY difficult!
Do you
belief me??
Alter-type
Wind Shield
Measuring Rainfall
Gauge
Locate away
from objects
Best if sheltered
from wind
Object
2H
Comments ??
Comments ??
Comments ??
Heated-orifice gauge
Point rainfall
measurements
applied to an
area have to be
reduced:
Areal Reduction
Factor, ARF
ARF depends on
rainfall duration
Estimating Areal
Rainfall Distribution
Large watersheds require
a number of gages
Limited by costs and time
Flat areas need usually
fewer stations
Consider topographic
effects
Try to distribute uniformly
Access may be a problem in
remote areas
Thiessen
Polygons
Example:
How to estimate basin precipitation by area
weighted averages?
Amount, mm
Area, hectar
8.81
12.15
15.26
13.18
5.62
9.8
65
150
269
216
56
136
Weighted
amount
Total:
(arithmetic mean)
(Catchment area)
(weighted mean)
Isohyetal Method
Isohyetal Method
Regionalisation
models,
e.g. PRISM
PRecipitationelevation on
Independent Slopes
Model
Rainfall Radar
Observation of
the space-time
variability
European Rainfall
Radar Stations
German Rainfall
Radar Stations
German Rainfall
Radar Stations
and Automatic
Raingauges
(on-line)
P = R + E + dS/dt
Temperature increase:
2.5-4.2 C
Results from
MPI-M Hamburg,
IPCC 2007
Change in Precipitation
Precipitation has been studied using ground-based, radar-based, satellitebased and model-based data sets
Water-holding capacity of the air increases by 7%/K (Clausius-Clapeyron
equation), but precipitation increase will be much less and large regional
differences are expected
Global average increased about 2%/century, but highly non-uniform in
space and time (hourly, daily, seasonal or decal time scales)