Cross strait relations with Taiwan poses the greatest challenge to the rule

of CCP. Discuss.
The Taiwan unfication issue has deep emotional implications to the
Chinese peoples historical memory. The mainlanders see that Taiwan as
the last reminder of Chinas division and its 150years of shame when
various foreign forces invaded China. Hong Kong and Macau has safely
returned to China. The last piece of puzzle is Taiwan. Taiwan was ceded to
Japan after the first Sino-Japan war. It was returned to the Nationalist
(meaning KMT) government in 1945 after Japanese surrendered in World
War II. Taiwan again became separated from the mainland when KMT took
refuge there in 1947 after Japanese surrendered in World War II. Taiwan
again separated from the mainland when KMT took refuge there after
1947 after its defeat by CCP in the civil war. For the Chinese people,
Taiwan became a renegade province.
Chinese leaders have placed the unification issue high in its agenda. To a
large extent, Beijing has fanned nationalistic feelings after 1989 to bolster
its legitimacy. The result is Beijing has effectively linked the Taiwan issue
to CCPs legitimacy. Nationalism is a double edged sword. There are
severe consequences to CCPs legitimacy if Taiwan becomes independent
without vigorous opposition from Beijing. Any leader who is seen to be soft
towards Taiwan will risk being challenged. This is evident in the 1995 and
1996 Taiwan Straits missile crisis. Jiang was sidelined by PLA generals who
went ahead with missile tests. Nationalistic fervor of ordinary Chinese
towards Taiwan issue may result in rebellion against CCP if it does not take
actions to stop Taiwan from breaking away. Failure to bring about
reunification, in the long run, may incite Tibet & Xinjiang rebellion. China
depends on Taiwan for investments and management skills and creation
of factory jobs. Taiwan is one of Chinas top ten foreign direct investments
source. Since Deng started market reforms, entrepreneurial Taiwanese
have flocked to China to invest and set up factories. By one estimate,
Taiwanese employ 40million Chinese will lose their jobs if the Taiwanese
factories are close. China is suspicious of American interests in Taiwan.
America recognizes one China policy but it continues to sell arms to
Taiwan. Beijing is upset that Taiwan seems to be aligning with America to
contain it. As a result, it has to divert energy and resources away from
reform and modernization to deal with Taiwans assertiveness towards
independence. In the 90s, Beijing spent large sums of money to upgrade
and buy weapons to deal with the American aircraft career fleet in a
possible conflict over Taiwan. A democratic system in Taiwan that can rid
itself of corruption and generate economic growth may become a model
for China. At the very last, ordinary Chinese people will ask if they deserve
a right to vote for their own leaders. The more liberal political elite may
have cause to push for more change. However, Beijing has made it clear
that they would go to war and risk everything for unification if Taiwan
declares independence. Hence, the anti-cessation law passed in 2005.
Clearly the Taiwan issue strains Sino relations and creates tension in East
Asia. Taiwan straits tension has eased with the election of KMTs Ma Ying

Jeou as he is not pushing for independence. Also, Beijings Taiwan policy

relies on the assistance of the US to apply pressure on Taiwan not to
declare independence. Despite their differences, China and America do
not wish to go to war over a Taiwan crisis. Up till now, there has been very
little political reform. CCP is adamant to hold on to power, jailing
dissidents and censoring the internet. Little success has been seen in
moving China towards more transparency. The likelihood of Taiwan
influencing Chinas democratization is not large.
There are also other domestic issues that challenge CCPs rule such as
corruption, environment challenges, rich-poor divide, riots and rebellion in
Tibet and Xinjiang, and failure to provide for reform education, housing
and medical sectors. There are more critical domestic issues that threaten
CCPs rule such as corrptuion. NPC always begin its session with the topic
of corruption. Jiang has described corruption as a life and death issue for
the party.
Taiwan issue is one of the many challenges that can threat CCPs rule
because it touches on national sovereignty and can fan nationalistic
feelings, it is a critical issue for Beijing. As well, cross straits relations
impacts Sino-US relations. Cross strait tensions was tense for 20years
under President Lee and Chen. This culminated in the 1995 and 1996
missile firing tests in Taiwan Straits. While it remains a key issue, it may
not be its greatest challenge in the short term. As long as Taiwan under
President Ma does not pursue an active independence policy, cross straits
relations becomes a medium to long term challenge to Beijings rule. In
the meantime, it has other more pressing domestic issues to manage.