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  • The Impact of High-End Climate Change Scenarios Over Europe

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    Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
    394 Ansichten1 Seite
    The latest scientific evidence suggest that the increase in global mean temperature is likely to exceed the 2 degrees and target the 4 to 6 degree Celsius by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, most of Europe is expected to warm more than the average global warming in the 21st century. The potential environmental, economic and social impacts of such high‐end warming scenarios has drawn the attention of the scientific community, which has a crucial role in advising future policy making. In the framework of High‐End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) FP7 project, five biophysical impact models are set up to investigate the effect of high global warming levels over Europe. Impact models are focused on water management (JULES), floods, water resources and droughts (Lisflood), coastal hazard (Liscoast), energy (Poles) and crop (Orchidee). Models are tested and validated against large scale past extreme events such as major droughts and flood events that have occurred in the recent past. Calibrated models are then forced by the newly available Euro – CORDEX regional climate projections to evaluate changes in key indicators within the considered sectors over Europe. Output simulations are then used to examine possible implications of uncertainties in global patterns of climate change at 4ºC for impacts at regional scales. The, first results of the coordinated modeling effort are presented for the examined impact sectors.

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    The impact of high-end climate change scenarios over Europe

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    The latest scientific evidence suggest that the increase in global mean temperature is likely to exceed the 2 degrees and target the 4 to 6 degree Celsius by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, most of Europe is expected to warm more than the average global warming in the 21st century. The potential environmental, economic and social impacts of such high‐end warming scenarios has drawn the attention of the scientific community, which has a crucial role in advising future policy making. In the framework of High‐End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) FP7 project, five biophysical impact models are set up to investigate the effect of high global warming levels over Europe. Impact models are focused on water management (JULES), floods, water resources and droughts (Lisflood), coastal hazard (Liscoast), energy (Poles) and crop (Orchidee). Models are tested and validated against large scale past extreme events such as major droughts and flood events that have occurred in the recent past. Calibrated models are then forced by the newly available Euro – CORDEX regional climate projections to evaluate changes in key indicators within the considered sectors over Europe. Output simulations are then used to examine possible implications of uncertainties in global patterns of climate change at 4ºC for impacts at regional scales. The, first results of the coordinated modeling effort are presented for the examined impact sectors.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Als PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
    Markieren Sie unangemessene Inhalte
    394 Ansichten1 Seite

    The Impact of High-End Climate Change Scenarios Over Europe

    Hochgeladen von

    Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
    The latest scientific evidence suggest that the increase in global mean temperature is likely to exceed the 2 degrees and target the 4 to 6 degree Celsius by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, most of Europe is expected to warm more than the average global warming in the 21st century. The potential environmental, economic and social impacts of such high‐end warming scenarios has drawn the attention of the scientific community, which has a crucial role in advising future policy making. In the framework of High‐End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) FP7 project, five biophysical impact models are set up to investigate the effect of high global warming levels over Europe. Impact models are focused on water management (JULES), floods, water resources and droughts (Lisflood), coastal hazard (Liscoast), energy (Poles) and crop (Orchidee). Models are tested and validated against large scale past extreme events such as major droughts and flood events that have occurred in the recent past. Calibrated models are then forced by the newly available Euro – CORDEX regional climate projections to evaluate changes in key indicators within the considered sectors over Europe. Output simulations are then used to examine possible implications of uncertainties in global patterns of climate change at 4ºC for impacts at regional scales. The, first results of the coordinated modeling effort are presented for the examined impact sectors.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Als PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
    Markieren Sie unangemessene Inhalte
    von 1

    The impact of high-end climate change scenarios over Europe

    I.K.Tsanis (1),L.Alfieri(2),A.Koutroulis (1),M.Grillakis (1),L.Papadimitriou(1),L.Feyen (2),M.Vousdoukas (2),E.


    Voukouvalas (2),M.Rozsai (3),A.Kitous (3),P.Ciais (4),X.Wang(4),K.Wyser (5),R.A.Betts(6,7)
    (1) Technical University of Crete, School, of Environmental Engineering, Chania, Greece(2) European Commission DG JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy(3) European
    Commission JRC, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain(4) Centre national de la recherche scientifique LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France(5) Swedish
    Meterological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrkping, Sweden (6) University of Exeter, College of Life & Environmental Sciences, Exeter, UK (7) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

    Thelatestscientificevidencesuggestthattheincreaseinglobalmeantemperatureislikelytoexceedthe2degreesandtarget the4to6degreeCelsiusbytheendofthe21st
    century.Furthermore,mostofEuropeisexpectedtowarmmorethantheaverageglobalwarminginthe21st century.Thepotentialenvironmental,economicandsocial
    impactsofsuchhighendwarmingscenarioshasdrawntheattentionofthescientificcommunity,whichhasacrucialroleinadvisingfuturepolicymaking.Intheframework
    ofHighEndcLimate ImpactsandeXtremes (HELIX)FP7project,fivebiophysicalimpactmodelsaresetuptoinvestigatetheeffectofhighglobalwarminglevelsoverEurope.
    Impactmodelsarefocusedonwatermanagement(JULES),floods,waterresourcesanddroughts(Lisflood),coastalhazard(Liscoast),energy(Poles)andcrop(Orchidee).
    Modelsaretestedandvalidatedagainstlargescalepastextremeeventssuchasmajordroughtsandfloodeventsthathaveoccurredintherecentpast.Calibratedmodelsare
    thenforcedbythenewlyavailableEuro CORDEXregionalclimateprojectionstoevaluatechangesinkeyindicatorswithintheconsideredsectorsoverEurope.Output
    simulationsarethenusedtoexaminepossibleimplicationsofuncertaintiesinglobalpatternsofclimatechangeat4Cforimpactsatregionalscales.The,firstresultsofthe
    coordinatedmodelingeffortarepresentedfortheexaminedimpactsectors.

    Futurestreamflow thefrequencyofriverfloods

    Streamflowforthebaseline(19762005)and+4C relativechange

    Onaverage,inEurope,floodpeakswithreturnperiods
    above100yearsareprojectedtodoubleinfrequency
    within3decades.
    Thechangeinfrequencyofdischargeextremesislikelyto
    havealargerimpactontheoverallfloodhazardas
    comparedtothechangeintheirmagnitude.
    Averagestreamflowisprojectedtoincreasein73%ofthe
    rivernetworkby2080,whiletheoverallmeanrelative
    changeis8%.Thelargestprojectedchangesarenegative,
    andinsomecaseslowerthan40%insouthernSpain.
    100yeardailypeakflow(Q100)forthebaselineand+4Crelativechange

    Wateravailabilityandstress
    Projectionsshowanintensificationofthe
    watercycleat+4SWL.
    Thereareremarkedprojecteddecreasesof
    lowflowseveninareaswheretheaverage
    stateisnotconsiderablyaffected.
    WiththeexceptionoftheScandinavian
    Peninsulaandsomesmallareasincentral
    Europe,10th percentilerunoffproductionis
    projectedtoreducealloverEurope.
    Absoluteand%changeinensemblemeanrunoffat+4C

    Absoluteand%changeinensemblemeanof10th
    percentilerunoffat+4C

    Extremestormsurgelevels
    IncreaseinSSLalongtheBalticSea,foreseen>20%.
    SimilarincreaseforNorthSea,Atlanticcoastofthe
    UK Ireland.
    MoreprominentincreaseforandtheNorwegian
    Sea.
    Moderateincreaseisanticipatedallalongthe
    MediterraneanandBlackSea.
    Increasedstormsurgeactivityisprojectedformost
    oftheEuropeancoastalregionsundera+4oC
    warmerworld.

    Projected+4oCchangesofextremeSSL

    Projectedreturnperiodsofthepresent10and100yearevent

    BlackSea
    EastMediterranean
    CentralMediterranean
    WestMediterranean
    SNorthAtlantic
    BayofBiscay
    NNorthAtlantic
    NorthSea
    BalticSea
    NorwegianSea

    RCP8.5
    Tr=10years
    Tr=100years
    8.2
    69.5
    10.3
    83.2
    9.5
    86.8
    9.1
    77.9
    12.8
    137.0
    9.5
    92.4
    8.0
    74.1
    7.2
    60.7
    5.9
    57.7
    6.0
    44.3

    Cropyield
    soybean

    winterwheat

    maize

    soybean

    Consistentincreaseofyieldforwinterwheat,maizeandsoybeanatcontinental
    scaleunderbothrainfed andirrigatedmanagementscenarios.
    Clearregionalpatternofwinnersandlosersintheyieldareidentifiedthat
    northerncountriesbenefitfromtheprojectedclimatechange,whilesouthern
    countriessurroundingtheMediterraneanwillsufferfromit.
    DecreaseinirrigationrequirementforthemajorityofEuropeduetoshorter
    growthdurationandhigherwateruseefficiencycausedbyhigherCO2
    concentration.
    Changeinthevariabilityofyield(risk)isinconsistent,highlightingthelarge
    Changeinyieldunderirrigatedandrainfed fora+4oC
    remaininguncertaintiesinclimatemodelsimulationsonclimatevariability.
    warmerclimate.Greyplus=statisticalinsignificantchange.
    Irrigated

    maize

    Rainfed

    Irrigated
    Rainfed

    Relativeyield(%)

    winterwheat

    Energydemandofresidentialcoolingandheating

    1EJ=31.7GW

    Theconsumptionofallfuelswilldecrease.
    Electricitydemandincreasesonaverage
    atEU28levelpulledbySouthernEurope
    by2050andbymostregionsbeyond2050
    (exceptUK&IrelandandNorthern
    Europe).
    Electricitywouldalmostdoublein
    SouthernEuropebytheendofthe
    century,comparedtoaconstantclimate
    scenario.

    The HELIX Project has received funding from the European Unions Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 603864.

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