Practice Problems on Probability

1. A committee is evaluating six equally qualified candidates for a job. Only three of the six will be invited for an
interview; among the chosen three, the order of invitation is of importance because the first candidate will have
the best chance of being accepted, the second will be made an offer only if the committee rejects the first, and
the third will be made an offer only if the committee should reject both the first and the second. How many
possible ordered choices of three out of six candidates are there?
2. A research journal states: Rejection rate for submitted manuscripts: 86%. A prospective author believes that
the editors statement reflects the probability of acceptance of any authors first submission to the journal. The
author further believes that for any subsequent submission, an authors acceptance probability is 10% lower than
the probability he or she had for acceptance of the preceding submission. Thus, the author believes that the
probability of acceptance of a first submission to the journal is 1 0.86 = 0.14, the probability of acceptance of
the second submission is 10% lower, that is, (0.14) (0.90) = 0.126, and so on for the third submission, fourth
submission, etc. Suppose the author plans to continue submitting papers to the journal indefinitely until one is
accepted. What is the probability that at least one paper will eventually be accepted by the journal?
3. (The Von Neumann device) Suppose that one of two people is to be randomly chosen, with equal probability,
to attend an important meeting. One of them claims that using a coin to make the choice is not fair because the
probability that it will land on a head or a tail is not exactly 0.50. How can the coin still be used for making the
choice? (Hint: Toss the coin twice, basing your decision on two possible outcomes.) Explain your answer.
4. Three machines A, B, and C are used to produce the same part, and their outputs are collected in a single bin.
Machine A produced 26% of the parts in the bin, machine B 38%, and machine C the rest. Of the parts produced
by machine A, 8% are defective. Similarly, 5% of the parts from B and 4% from C are defective. A part is picked at
random from the bin.
a. If the part is defective, what is the probability it was produced by machine A?
b. If the part is good, what is the probability it was produced by machine B?
5. Seventy percent of customers at the snack counter of a movie theater buy drinks. Among those who buy
drinks, 30% also purchase popcorn. Whats the probability that a customer at the counter buys a drink and
popcorn? Theaters use this type of calculation to decide which products should be bundled to appeal to
customers.
6. Some electronic devices are better used than new: The failure rate is higher when they are new than when
they are six months old. For example, half of the personal music players of a particular brand have a flaw. If the
player has the flaw, it dies in the first six months. If it does not have this flaw, then only 10% fail in the first six
months. Yours died after you had it for three months. What are the chances that it has this flaw?
7. A shipment of assembly parts from a vendor offering inexpensive parts is used in anmanufacturing plant. The
box of 12 parts contains 5 that are defective and will not fit during assembly. A worker picks parts one at a time
and attempts to install them. Find the probability of each outcome.
a.
b.
c.
d.

The first two chosen are both good.

At least one of the first three is good.
The first four picked are all good.
The worker has to pick five parts to find one that is good.

8. After assembling an order for 12 computer systems, the assembler noticed that an electronic component that
was to have been installed was left over. The assembler then checked the 12 systems in order to find the system
missing the component. Assume that he checks them in a random order:

a. What is the probability that the first system the assembler checks is the system that is missing the
component?
b. What is the probability that the second system the assembler checks is missing the component, assuming
that the first system he checked was OK?
c. Explain why the answers to parts a and b are different.
9. Choice leads for developing new business are randomly assigned to 50 employees who make up the direct
sales team. Half of the sales team is male, and half is female. An employee can receive at most one choice lead
per day. On a particular day, five choice leads are assigned.
a. Are the events [first lead is to a male] and [second lead is to a male] dependent or independent?
b. If the first four leads all go to men, what is the probability that the fifth lead also goes to a man?
c. What is the probability that all five leads go to men if you know that at least four of the leads go to men?
10. A company buys components from two suppliers. One produces components that are of higher quality than
the other. The high-quality supplier, call it Supplier A, has a defect rate of 2%. The low-quality supplier, Supplier
B, has a defect rate of 10% but offers lower prices. This company buys in equal volume from both suppliers, with
half of the orders going to each supplier.
a. What is the probability that a component to be installed is defective?
b. If a defective component is found, what is the probability it came from Supplier A?
11. You fly from Philadelphia to San Francisco with a connection in Dallas. The probability that your flight from
Philadelphia to Dallas arrives on time is 0.8. If you arrive on time, then the probability that your luggage makes
the connection to San Francisco is 0.9. If you are delayed, then the chance of your luggage making the
connection with you is 0.5. In either case, you make the flight.
a. What is the probability that your luggage is there to meet you in San Francisco?
b. If your luggage is not there to meet you, what is the probability that you were late in arriving in Dallas?
12. A survey reports that 62% of callers to a help desk complain about the service if they think they spoke to a
foreign agent, compared to 31% who complain if they think they spoke to a native agent. Suppose that 40% of all
calls to service centers are handled by agents in the United States. If a caller complains, what is the probability
she was dealing with a foreign agent?
13. Recent surveys report that although Internet access has grown rapidly, its not universal: only 75% of U.S.
households have a computer with Internet access. Internet access isnt universal for households that have
computers; 18% of households with a computer are not on the Internet. Treat these percentages as probabilities.
What is the probability that, among households not connected to the Internet, the household does not have a
computer?
14. Suppose that 20% of the clerical staff in an office smoke cigarettes. Research shows that 60% of smokers and
15% of nonsmokers suffer a breathing illness by age 65.
a. Do these percentages indicate that smoking and this breathing illness are independent?
b. Whats the probability that a randomly selected 65-year-old employee who has this breathing illness
smokes?

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