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0.41
0.25
0.18
0.10
0.06
P(0 X 3)
E(X)
0
(d)
0.41
0.25
0.18
0.1
0.06
1.15
Var(X)
1.15
x
P(X = x|x>0)
0.41
3 1.15
1.15
0.25
0.10
4 1.15
1.15
0.18
0.06 1.5075
0.42
0.31
0.17
0.10
P(X = x)
0.6
0.2
0.2
(a) Find the mean and variance of X1 and. Explain why we do not need to
find the mean and variance of X2 once we know those of X1?
0.6;
0.64
The mean and variance of X2 are the same because they have identical
distributions.
(b) As X1 and X2 are random so is . Find the mean and variance of .
Compare these with the result from (a) and comment. Hint: you will find
0 because X1 and X2 are
,
it useful to note that
independent. This simplifies the evaluation of variance of .
0.6
1
4
1
4
0.32
is the variance of X
Find the possible values that may take. Hence list the probability
distribution of for samples of size 2. (This is known as the sampling
distribution of ).
Ifn=2possiblevaluesforthemeanare0,,1,3/2,2.
2
Weknowpossiblevaluesforthemeanare0,,1,3/2,2.Nowneedtoassign
probabilities to each outcome to produce the probability distribution for the
samplemean.
0,
0
0.6 0.6 0.36
Forexample
0
Thefollowingtablelistsallpossibleoutcomesandassociatedprobabilities:
,
0,0
0,1
0,2
1,0
1,1
1,2
2,0
2,1
2,2
1
3/2
1
3/2
2
Therequiredprobabilitydistributionbecomes:
0
1/2
1
0.36
0.24
0.28
)
(d)
Probability
0.36
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.04
0.04
0.12
0.04
0.04
3/2
0.08
2
0.04
Asnincreasesgetafinergridofvaluesbetweenextremesof0and2.
3
3. A student has taken three courses in this semester. Lets call them courses
A, B and C. Her chances of passing each course are 0.8, 0.65, and 0.5,
respectively. Passing each course is assumed to be independent of passing
other courses. Answer the following:
(a) Define a random variable for each course outcome.
A=0(failA)&A=1(passA)
B=0(failB)&B=1(passB)
C=0(failC)&C=1(passC)
(b) What is the probability that this student passes exactly two courses?
P(passingtwocourses)=P(passA&BbutfailC)+P(passA&CbutfailB)+
P(passC&BbutfailA)=0.8 0.65
1 0.5
0.8 0.5
1 0.65
0.65 0.5
1 0.8
0.465
(c) What is the probability that this student fails at least one course?
P(failingatleastonecourse)=1P(passingallcourses)
1 0.8 0.65 0.5 0.74
(d) How reasonable is the assumption of independence?
Independenceislikelytobeanunreasonableassumption.Resultsarelikelytobe
dependent(strongpositiveassociation).
n
Cxpossiblecombinationsovern=4tosses.Equivalentnotation
ValueofX
usedinlectureswas
0
(TTTT)[4C0=1]
1
(HTTT)(THTT)(TTHT)(TTTH)[4C1=4]
2
(HHTT)(HTHT)(HTTH)(THHT)(THTH)(TTHH)[4C2=6]
3
(THHH)(HTHH)(HHTH)(HHHT)[4C3=4]
4
(HHHH)[4C4=1]
Eachofthesecombinationsareequallylikelybecauseonanytossofafair
coinP(H)=P(T)=0.5&wereassumingoutcomesareindependent
P(TTTT)=P(HTTT)=.=P(HHHH)=(0.5)4=0.0625
Therequiredprobabilitydistributionbecomes:
0
1
2
3
4
0.0625
0.25
0.375
0.25
0.0625
(b)
E(X)
Var(X)
0+10.25+20.375+30.25+40.0625
2
(2)20.0625+(1)20.25+0+(1)20.25+(2)20.0625
1
(c)Consider a game where you win $5 for every head but lose $3 for every
tail that appears in 4 tosses of a fair coin. Let the variable Y denote the
winnings from this game. Formulate the probability distribution of Y from
that of X.
ThegeneralformulafordeterminingYfromXisY=5X3*(4X)so,when
X=0,youlose12andsoon.Hence
12
P(Y=y)
(d)
0.0625
4
0.25
4
0.375
12
0.25
20
0.0625
What is the expected value of Y? Would you like to play this game? If
so why? If not why not?
Directlyfromtheformulagiveninpart(c)wehave,inthefollowingtable,
E(Y) = 5E(X)3[4E(X)]
= 1012+6=4
or
E(Y) = 120.062540.25+40.375+12.025+200.0625
= 4,
wherethelattercalculationcomesdirectlyfromtheprobabilitydistributionofY
givenabove.(Thetwoevaluations,ofcourse,givethesamevalue!)
If you play the game enough times you would expect to win $4 per game on
average.Thusthisisnotafairgame(whereexpectedreturnsarezero)butitis
biasedtowardstheplayerunlikegamesincasinoswhereexpectedwinningsare
negative.
Notice on any one play of the game you still might lose money and hence
someone who is extremely risk averse might not want to play the game even
thoughonaverageovermanyplaysofthegametheyshouldwin.