Module 1

Climate Change
Science

Topics

Climate change, the science

The Science
The Greenhouse Effect
The Science
The Earths cycles
The Laws of Thermodynamics
How it all relates
Projections
Result
Further Reading

Weather and Climate

There is often confusion between weather and
climate.
Weather is the condition of the atmosphere at a
particular place over a short period of time.
Climate refers to the weather pattern of a place over
a long period, maybe 30 years or more, long enough
to yield meaningful data.

Weather and Climate

Therefore a weather change is an afternoon storm
rolling in to Brisbane.
Where as Climate Change refers to major changes in
temperature, precipitation, or wind patterns, among
others.
Resulting in Brisbane getting some welcome rain as
opposed to sea level rise, severe weather events
more often, drought and flooding, plus many more.

Climate Change Science

Greenhouse gases naturally blanket the Earth and keep it roughly
33C warmer than it would be without these gases in the
atmosphere.
This is called the Greenhouse Effect. It is also a natural process.
Same principle as a greenhouse.
Greenhouse Gases are predominantly made up of Water Vapour
(H2O), Carbon Dioxide (CH2), Methane (CH4), and Nitrous Oxides
(NOx), there are others.

Climate Change Science

Human activity has increased the concentrations of GHGs
in the atmosphere, particularly since 1800s, Industrial
Revolution
Activities such as burning of fossil fuels (Coal and Oil for
energy), land clearing, agriculture and manufacturing, all
add to the production of GHGs.
The natural processes of the Earth have not been able to
keep up with the enhanced GHG production.
The result, a build up of GHG in the atmosphere, leading to
a gradual increase of the Earths temperature.

Concentrations of common GHGs

Contribution
Compound

Formula
(%)

Water vapour and clouds

H2O

36 72%

Carbon dioxide

CO2

9 26%

Methane

CH4

49%

Ozone

O3

37%

The Greenhouse Effect

Science
From the previous slide we understand that under
normal circumstances solar radiation enters our
atmosphere, interacts with Earths processes and
whatever is not used gets reflected back through the
atmosphere in to space.
However, a build up of GHG in the atmospheric layers
decreases the amount of solar radiation reflected
back, effectively trapping it in our system.
Consequence global warming.

Divided Opinions
Most scientists believe Global Warming is
definitely happening.
Others believe it to be part of the natural processes
of the Globe. Which is true to an extent.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, UNFCCC.
Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change, IPCC.
Everyone else seems to be slowly coming around.

The Precautionary Principle

In May 1982 the Intergovernmental Agreement on the
Environment formed the idea of the Precautionary
Principle.
By definition it states:
Where there are threats of serious or irreversible
environmental damage, lack of full scientific certainty
should not be used as a reason for postponing
measures to prevent environmental degradation.

The Precautionary Principle

In application of the precautionary principle, public and
private decisions should be guided by:
1.
2.

Careful evaluation to avoid, wherever practicable, serious or

irreversible damage to the environment; and,
An assessment of risk-weighted consequences of various
options.

It should be noted that in this application the idea of

Environmental Impact Assessments was born.

IPCC Statement
Dr. Robert Watson, 2001 Chairman of the IPCC, has
stated, at the 3rd meeting:
" The overwhelming majority of scientific experts,
whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties exist,
nonetheless believe that human-induced climate
change is already occurring and that future change
is inevitable."

Application of the precautionary

principle

Scientific Evidence
However, scientific evidence at present is fairly
certain that human activity has placed pressure on
the natural processes in assimilating excess GHGs,
more than ever before.
So the sceptics are falling by the wayside and
evidence is showing what we have believed and
thought for the past 3 decades in relation to climate
change.

Human Activity
The human processes that cause a speeding up of the
GHG concentrations include:
Burning of fossil fuels for energy oil, gas, coal etc.
Deforestation clearing the land of trees and forests to
make way for agriculture. Removing carbon sinks.
Manufacturing processes that use or produce certain
chemical compounds that are GHGs such as
magnesium smelting using sulphur hexafluoride.

An Inconvenient Truth
"Each passing day brings yet more evidence that
we are now facing a planetary emergency a
climate crisis that demands immediate action to
sharply reduce GHG emissions worldwide in order
to turn down the earths thermostat and avert
catastrophe.
"The serious debate over the climate crisis has now
moved on to the question of how we can craft
emergency solutions in order to avoid this
catastrophic damage."
Al Gore.

World Temperatures
20 hottest years on record
Reliable instruments have been used since
1880 to determine patterns in climate, ice
cores from Antarctica show patterns over the
centuries.
19 of the top twenty hottest recorded years
have been in the last 25.
2005 and 1998 were almost identical in data,
yet 1998 was a very strong El Nino year, 2005
was very weak El Nino at the start of the
year, and normal conditions the remainder.

GHG Concentrations

The Climate System

Global Energy Balance

The Water Cycle

The Carbon Cycle

The Global Cycles

In essence, all of the Earths cycles as explained on
the previous slides have one thing in common:
That the amount of energy, water, carbon, nitrogen,
hydrogen, in fact all natural resources containing any of
these elements are at any one time in balance.
Meaning that the amount of each resource within the
whole of the cycle is relatively the same.

This relates to the Laws of Thermodynamics.

The Laws of Thermodynamics

Energy exists in many forms, such as heat, light, chemical
energy, and electrical energy. Energy is the ability to
bring about change or to do work. Thermodynamics is
the study of energy.
If we go one step further we can say that ALL resources
and processes behave the same way as energy when we
relate the Laws of Thermodynamics to them.

Defined - The First Law

The first law of thermodynamics is often called the Law of
Conservation of Energy. This law suggests that energy
can be transferred from one system to another in many
forms. However, it can not be created nor destroyed.
Thus, the total amount of energy available in the Universe
is constant. Einstein's famous equation describes the
relationship between energy and matter:
E = MC2
Einstein suggested that energy and matter are
interchangeable. His equation also suggests that the
quantity of energy and matter in the Universe is fixed.

The First Law (Simplified)

Energy, matter, resources etc are never destroyed or
created. They simply transfer from one state to another.
Burn Coal, you get heat that boils water, to get steam
that turns turbines that cause friction and create
electricity.
The electricity is used down the line to run appliances,
heat water and light your home.
The energy is moved from one state to another, but
never destroyed.

Defined - The Second Law

Energy can never pass spontaneously from a colder to a
hotter body. As a result of this fact, natural processes that
involve energy transfer must have one direction, and all
natural processes are irreversible. This law also predicts
that the entropy of an isolated system always increases
with time. Entropy is the measure of the disorder or
randomness of energy and matter in a system. Because
of the second law of thermodynamics both energy and
matter in the Universe are becoming less useful as time
goes on.

The Second Law (Simple)

Once the transfer of energy has occurred it can not be
recovered the same way.
For example, a frying pan on a stove will heat from the
gas being burnt underneath, that heat will cook the food,
to eat.
However, leaving the frying pan on the stove, the energy
lost through the transfer of heat will not return from the
atmosphere or the food back to the pan, back to the
flame.
Entropy.

Application in all of Earths Cycles

Therefore, we can relate the laws of thermodynamics

to all of Earths cycles.
The cycles operate in very much the same way.
Water transfers from one state to another, from an
ocean to clouds to rain to streams to rivers to oceans.
All matter is neither created nor destroyed it just
shifts from one state to another.

Terminology
Carbon Emissions are expressed in terms of Carbon
Dioxide Equivalent or Global Warming Potential
(GWP).
This is expressed as CO2-e.
The reason for this is the other gases that are GHGs as
discussed earlier.
Each of these gases harm the atmosphere in differing
ways and amounts.
It makes it easier to express them in the lowest
common denominator that being Carbon Dioxide

The GHGs Equivalencies

Greenhouse Gas
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
Sulphur hexafluoride
Hydrofluorocarbon-23
Hydrofluorocarbon-32
Perfluoromethane
Perfluoroethane
Perfluoropropane
Perfluorobutane
Perfluorocyclobutane
Perfluoropentane
Perfluorohexane

Formula
CO2
CH4
N2O
SF6
CHF3
CH2F2
CF4
C 2F 6
C3 F8
C4F10
c-C4F8
C5F12
C6F14

CO2-e in Kgs
Global Warming Potential
1
25
298
22,800
14,800
675
7,390
12,200
8,830
8,860
10,300
13,300
9,300

Land Use
Change
Deforestation;
140 Gt CO2-e

Fossil Fuel
Emissions
265 Gt CO2-e

Oceans
115 Gt CO2-e
Terrestrial/Tree
and Plants
110 Gt CO2-e

Atmosphere
180 Gt CO2-e

CARBON EMISSION UPTAKE

CARBON EMISSIONS

Carbon Emissions and Carbon Uptake

since 1800 (Industrial Revolution)

How does all this relate to Global Warming?

The burning of fossil fuels has increased exponentially

since the Industrial Revolution 1800s.

The natural uptake of GHGs has not and will not be able
to keep up with growth
This has been the uptake of CO2 in Gt
The 180 Gt yet to be abated is the problem
We have produced more GHGs the we have been
able to abate

Simply Put
The normal processes in the Earths Cycle can no
longer abate GHGs at the rate in which they are being
produced.
The cycles are choked.
The result Global Warming or Climate Change.

Projections
The following slides depict the potential consequence
to some of Earths processes if we carry on with the
amount of environmental degradation currently
occurring in relation to climate change.

Global Projections (1)

Temperature
The basic projection is that the global surface air
temperature is going to increase with all scenarios.
Even if the concentrations of all GHGs were kept
constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of
about 0.1C per decade would be expected. If
emissions are kept within the range of the IPCC
scenarios about twice as much warming (0.2C per
decade) can be expected.

Global Projections (2)

Global Precipitation
For a future warmer climate, the current generation
of models indicate that precipitation will generally
increase in tropical regions (such as the monsoon
regimes) and over the tropical Pacific in particular.
There is projected to be general decreases in the
subtropics, and increases at high latitudes. Globally
averaged mean water vapour, evaporation and
precipitation are projected to increase.

Global Projections (3)

Precipitation Extremes and Droughts

The Intensity of precipitation events is projected to

increase, particularly in tropical and high latitude
areas that are due to experience increases in mean
precipitation. Even in areas where mean precipitation
decreases (most subtropical and mid-latitude
regions), precipitation intensity is projected to
increase meaning that there would be longer periods
between rainfall events. There is a tendency for
drying of the mid-continental areas during summer,
indicating a greater risk of droughts in those regions.

Global Projection (4)

Snow and Ice
As the climate warms, snow cover and sea ice
extent will decrease; glaciers and ice caps lose
mass owing to a dominance of summer melting
over winter precipitation increases. There is a
projected reduction of sea ice in the 21st century in
both the Arctic and Antarctic (see image below).
Some models project summer sea ice cover to
disappear entirely in the Arctic in the latter part of
the 21st century. Widespread increases in thaw
depth over much of the permafrost regions are
projected to occur in response to warming.

Global Projections (5)

Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons)
Results from some global models, project a likely
increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones, but not
in the number of them each year. Projections
involving tropical cyclones are still rather uncertain.

Global Projections (6)

Ocean Circulation
The overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean will
very likely slow down during the 21st century but is
very unlikely to undergo a large abrupt transition
during the 21st century. Partial deglaciation of polar
ice sheets would imply major changes in coastlines
and inundation of low-lying areas, with greatest
effects in river deltas and low-lying islands.

Global Projections (7)

Particularly Vulnerable Areas
The Arctic: because of the impacts of high rates of
projected warming on natural systems
Africa: especially the sub-Saharan region, because of
projected climate-change impacts and low adaptive
capacity
Small islands: due to high exposure of population and
infrastructure to sea-level rise and increased storm
surges
Asian mega deltas: due to large populations and high
exposure to sea-level rise, storm surge and river
flooding.

Result
As a result of global warming;
The average global surface temperature is
rising
Sea temperatures are rising
Weather patterns are changing
Ecosystems are changing unpredictably

If not halted will it ultimately lead to the

end of human kind?

Further Reading (not compulsory)

An Inconvenient Truth Al Gore
The Economics of Climate Change The Stern Review
The Weather Makers Tim Flannery

END