Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
CONSTRUCTION
Investment thesis
We believe now is a good time to start loading construction stocks to
investor portfolios ahead of upcoming bidding on infrastructure projects in
2H15. The last time such a series of biddings took place in mid-2010,
contractors rerated to +1SD above their long-term PBV, but they are now
trading at +0.5SD. CK is our top BUY due to its clearest visibility to add
new projects, followed by UNIQ due to strong earnings growth in 2H15.
Long-awaited infrastructure projects coming soon
The big-ticket infrastructure projects are scheduled to be bid on in 2H15
and have a small chance to slip into next year should be two lines of
double-track railways (ChachoengsaoKaeng Khoi, worth Bt11bn and Jira
station in Nakhon RatchasimaKhon Kaen, worth Bt27bn), Suvarnabhumi
airport Phase II, worth Bt62bn; MRT Orange Line, Phase I, worth Bt115bn;
and, the PattayaMap Ta Phut motorway, worth Bt14bn. The invitation for
bidding on the ChachoengsaoKaeng Khoi line project is expected to be
released in September, followed by the JiraKhon Kaen, Suvarnabhumi
Airport and Orange Line projects in October. The motorway has yet to be
scheduled exactly as its TOR is still under the preparation process, but it
should be ready for bidding to open by YE15.
Big-ticket infra projects may yet be added to backlogs by YE15
The total value of Bt229bn for the projects mentioned should substantially
enlarge contractors backlogs. However, these projects are unlikely to be
added to those backlogs until early 2016. Normally, it takes around 2-3
months from the bidding invitation to bid submission and another 2-3
months for state agencies to review the tenders and announce the winners.
CK
Rating: BUY
Target Price: Bt32.75
Price (10 July 2015): Bt27.00
STEC
Rating: BUY
Target Price: Bt26.00
Price (10 July 2015): Bt22.90
UNIQ
Rating: BUY
Target Price: Bt21.00
Price (10 July 2015): Bt17.60
Sector PBV band
x
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
Average = 1.8x
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
13 July 2015
Bidding
10,805
27,007
17,292
24,842
29,855
20,038
9,436
400,000
29,882
32,398
18,243
17,509
35,544
77,485
60,512
Sep-15
Oct-15
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
Motorway
Pattaya Map Ta hut
Bang Pa-in Saraburi
Bang Yai Ban Pong
14,200
84,600
55,600
2015
2015
2016
Expressway
N2 N3
Dao Khanong Outer ring road
69,000
18,000
2016
2017
Airport
Suvarnbhumi International Airport, Phase II
The third runway at Suvarnabhumi
Terminal 2 Suvarnabhumi airport
Phuket airport expansion
Chiang Mai airport expansion
62,100
20,000
27,000
4,000
4,000
Oct-15
2016
2016
2017
2018
Port
Songkhla
Pak Bara Satun
3,600
12,000
2016
2016
Water management
Nong Bon Drainage way
Nong Bon wastewater treatment plant
Khlong Toei wastewater treatment plant
5900
7000
12000
2015
2016
2016
MRT Line
Orange (Cultural Center Min Buri)
Pink (Kae Rai Min Buri)
Yellow (Lardprao Samrong)
Dark Green (Samut Prakan Bang Pu)
Orange (Taling Chan Thailand Cultural Center)
Purple (Tao Poon Rat Burana)
Green (Kukot Lam Luk Ka)
Blue (Bang Khae - Phutthamonthon 4)
Double-track railway
Chachoengsao Kaeng Khoi
Jira Khon Kaen
Prachuap Khiri Khan Chumphon
Lopburi Paknam Po
Map Kabao (Saraburi) Jira
Nakhon Pathom Hua Hin
Hua Hin Prachuap Khiri Khan
Standard guage: Nong Khai Map Ta Phut
Paknam Po Den Chai
Jira Ubon Ratchathani
Khon Kaen Nong Khai
Chumphon Surat Thani
Surat Thani Padang Besar
Den Chai Chiang Rai Chiang Khong
Ban Pai Nakhon Phanom
Oct-15
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2018
Construction - 2
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
32,627 32,865 34,239 35,300 29,536
(29,233) (29,827) (31,272) (32,150) (26,905)
3,394
3,038
2,967
3,150
2,631
(1,505) (1,475) (1,550) (1,597) (1,437)
1,889
1,562
1,417
1,553
1,195
(1,538) (1,468) (1,313) (1,207) (1,242)
1,637
1,274
1,182
1,109
1,123
1,988
1,369
1,285
1,455
1,075
(190)
(89)
(254)
(288)
(212)
1,797
1,280
1,031
1,167
863
(38)
(61)
(50)
(60)
(60)
(489)
27
3
67
81
6,403
1,050
1,532
0
0
7,674
2,296
2,515
1,174
884
4.53
1.36
1.49
0.69
0.52
4.53
1.36
1.49
0.69
0.52
1,271
1,246
984
1,174
884
0.75
0.74
0.58
0.69
0.52
2,606
2,571
2,472
2,672
2,374
57.1
10.4
8.0
5.8
23.5
3.9
12.5
16.8
0.5
1.4
2.2
1.2
0.7
9.2
7.8
4.8
7.0
3.8
3.0
4.0
0.4
1.5
2.2
1.1
4.2
8.7
7.2
4.1
7.3
2.9
3.2
4.1
0.4
1.8
1.9
1.1
3.1
8.9
7.6
4.4
3.3
3.3
1.5
1.9
0.5
2.0
1.8
1.3
(16.3)
8.9
8.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
1.1
1.4
0.4
1.9
1.9
1.0
%
100
80
60
40
20
0
(20)
(40)
11
12
x
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
13
days
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
11
12
13
14
Profit margins
Gross margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
%
15
10
5
0
(5)
5,393
4,288
17,894
7,518
36,941
72,034
6,846
13,696
23,636
11,016
55,194
1,653
4,869
7,182
16,551
290
72,034
5,949
5,337
21,838
6,962
40,787
80,872
5,904
13,070
29,322
13,105
61,402
1,694
4,869
8,762
19,125
346
80,872
3,975
5,798
19,858
7,046
41,461
78,138
6,604
6,891
32,335
11,118
56,949
1,694
4,869
10,431
20,793
396
78,138
3,404
5,682
19,840
7,085
42,373
78,383
6,518
4,527
34,700
11,221
56,966
1,694
4,869
10,598
20,961
456
78,383
3,214
5,901
21,607
7,064
43,969
81,755
7,642
7,527
34,200
10,494
59,863
1,694
4,869
11,013
21,376
516
81,755
7,674
717
(10,033)
(6,767)
(8,409)
(8,253)
9,102
849
8,380
0
(936)
9,102
7,446
(58)
(16,663)
(9.8)
2,296
1,009
(6,305)
(1,931)
(4,931)
(2,397)
3,712
1,316
5,656
0
(701)
3,712
4,958
1,355
(7,327)
(4.3)
2,515
1,055
2,359
(2,264)
3,665
(1,936)
1,324
(612)
(3,497)
0
(847)
1,324
(4,340)
(1,286)
1,729
1.0
1,174
1,119
(20)
(710)
1,564
(1,952)
823
(1,129)
0
(0)
(1,006)
823
(1,001)
(567)
(388)
(0.2)
884
1,179
(1,665)
(727)
(328)
(1,952)
60
(1,892)
2,500
(0)
(470)
60
2,036
(184)
(2,280)
(1.3)
22,967
112,473
10.4
7,742
93,583
9.2
20,000
79,903
8.7
30,000
74,722
8.9
40,000
85,314
8.9
(10)
11
12
13
14
Capital expenditure
Capex (Bt,bn)
Capex / Net PPE (%)
Bt,bn
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
11
12
13
14
%
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Debt serviceability
(ST debt + Interest) / EBITDA
(Debt + Interest) / EBITDA
x
40
20
0
(20)
(40)
(60)
11
12
13
14
Dividend payout
Dividend (Bt)
Payout ratio (%)
Bt/Shr
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
%
120
0.59
0.43
0.34 0.34
100
0.50
80
0.28
0.21
60
40
20
0
11
12
13
Construction - 3
%
80
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
60
40
20
0
(20)
11
12
13
14
AR / Sales (days)
AP / Cost of Goods (days)
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
11
12
13
14
Profit margins
Gross margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
%
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
11
12
13
14
Capital expenditure
Capex (Bt,bn)
Bt,bn
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
11
12
13
14
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Debt serviceability
(ST debt + Interest) / EBITDA
(Debt + Interest) / EBITDA
x
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
11
12
13
14
Dividend payout
Dividend (Bt)
Payout ratio (%)
Bt/Shr
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
%
100
80
60
0.55
0.50 0.50
0.32
0.30 0.36
0.48
40
20
0
11
12
13
14
Construction - 4
2013
6,709
(5,432)
1,278
(505)
773
(140)
99
731
(146)
586
0
0
1
587
0.75
0.54
586
0.54
1,103
2014
8,109
(6,635)
1,473
(624)
849
(309)
91
632
(130)
502
0
0
0
502
0.46
0.46
502
0.46
1,580
2015E
12,630
(10,357)
2,273
(941)
1,332
(323)
101
1,110
(222)
888
0
0
0
888
0.82
0.82
888
0.82
2,038
2016E
14,265
(11,697)
2,568
(1,062)
1,506
(354)
111
1,263
(253)
1,011
(45)
0
0
966
0.89
0.89
966
0.89
2,179
2017E
16,650
(13,653)
2,997
(1,236)
1,761
(388)
122
1,495
(299)
1,196
(80)
0
0
1,116
1.03
1.03
1,116
1.03
2,407
67.1
19.0
16.4
11.5
8.7
8.7
6.2
15.7
0.7
1.0
0.8
5.5
20.9
18.2
19.5
10.5
6.2
6.2
3.4
7.6
0.5
1.2
0.5
2.8
55.8
18.0
16.1
10.5
7.0
7.0
5.4
9.9
0.8
1.4
0.5
4.1
12.9
18.0
15.3
10.6
6.8
6.8
5.9
10.0
0.9
1.4
0.5
4.3
16.7
18.0
14.5
10.6
6.7
6.7
6.3
10.7
0.9
1.5
0.4
4.5
359
3,178
556
3,753
4,771
12,617
3,123
539
1,540
4,811
10,013
780
94
1,731
2,604
0
12,617
627
4,551
1,053
4,415
6,688
17,334
2,274
850
2,024
6,533
11,682
1,081
2,463
2,108
5,652
0
17,334
1,154
6,189
1,553
4,465
2,206
15,566
3,728
900
2,274
2,477
9,380
1,082
2,463
2,641
6,186
0
15,566
1,715
6,990
1,755
4,515
1,923
16,897
4,211
900
2,344
2,676
10,132
1,082
2,463
3,220
6,765
0
16,897
2,194
8,159
2,048
4,565
1,604
18,569
4,915
900
2,444
2,875
11,135
1,082
2,463
3,890
7,435
0
18,569
587
331
(3,565)
4,075
1,428
(1,063)
(265)
(1,328)
479
0
(47)
(265)
113
213
364
0.5
502
731
(2,852)
(316)
(1,935)
(552)
(844)
(1,395)
1,156
0
(125)
(844)
3,599
269
(2,487)
(2.3)
888
706
(2,139)
1,337
792
(500)
(17)
(517)
205
0
(205)
(17)
249
525
292
0.3
966
673
(1,002)
528
1,164
(500)
(18)
(518)
200
0
(355)
(18)
(85)
562
664
0.6
1,116
646
(1,462)
784
1,083
(500)
(18)
(518)
200
0
(386)
(18)
(86)
479
583
0.5
80
1.0
0.8
60
0.6
40
0.4
20
0.2
0.0
13
15E
14
16E
17E
AR / Sales (days)
AP / Cost of Goods (days)
250
200
150
100
50
0
13
15E
14
16E
17E
Profit margins
%
20
15
10
5
0
13
15E
14
16E
17E
Capital expenditure
Capex (Bt,bn)
Capex / Net PPE (%)
Bt,bn
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
13
14
15E
16E
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
17E
Debt serviceability
x
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
13
14
15E
16E
17E
Dividend payout
Bt/Shr
Dividend (Bt)
0.41
50
0.5
0.4
0.33
0.3
0.2
0.16
0.36
40
30
0.19
20
10
0.1
0.0
13
14
15E
16E
17E
Construction - 5
Regional Comparisons
Bloomberg
Code
Italian-Thai Development
ITD TB
Nawarat Patanakarn
NWR TB
Toyo-Thai Corporation
TTCL TB
Sriracha Construction
SRICHA TB
STP&I
STPI TB
TRC Construction
TRC TB
Syntec Construction
SYNTEC TB
Dcon Products
DCON TB
Unique Engineering & Cons. UNIQ TB
Pylon
PYLON TB
CH. Karnchang
CK TB
Sino-Thai Engineering & Cons. STEC TB
Simple average
PER (x)
(US$
equivalent) 2015E 2016E
1,252
139
511
234
776
268
141
115
560
129
1,347
1,029
56.3
24.4
25.4
8.5
8.5
42.3
10.0
22.6
21.4
19.5
20.4
35.6
24.6
38.9
-3.0
17.8 1263.6
13.6
48.8
9.7
-20.5
9.9
20.3
19.5
-79.6
12.8
n.a.
20.4
-39.2
19.7
76.8
17.2
15.1
24.0
-2.5
25.9
-35.4
19.1
113.1
PBV (x)
ROE (%)
2.8
1.2
3.0
2.8
2.5
3.3
1.5
3.5
3.1
4.3
2.2
4.1
2.9
2.6
1.1
3.0
3.0
2.1
3.0
1.4
3.4
2.8
3.8
2.1
3.7
2.7
5.7
4.9
11.5
34.4
32.0
11.2
n.a.
21.9
15.0
23.9
11.3
11.6
16.7
6.9
7.3
17.8
27.5
22.9
16.1
13.6
21.5
14.9
23.9
9.1
15.0
16.4
0.8
1.3
1.9
9.1
3.9
0.7
2.7
4.9
1.9
2.6
2.0
1.4
2.8
1.1
2.0
2.1
8.6
4.6
1.5
2.5
4.7
2.0
2.9
1.7
1.9
3.0
Construction - 6
DISCLAIMER
BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BLS) is a subsidiary of BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL). This document
is produced based upon sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy, completeness or correctness is not guaranteed. The statements or
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Lead underwriter/
Underwriter/
Co-underwriter
Financial Advisor
BR
Score Range
Score Range
Description
90 100
Excellent
80 89
Very Good
70 79
Good
60 69
Satisfactory
50 59
Below 50
Pass
No logo given
N/A
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BUALUANG RESEARCH RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
HOLD: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12
months.
SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next
3 months.
Construction - 7