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In this chapter, studerts will:

• (a) understand the concepts ofcontinuous random variablc and nomal vrriable;

• (b) understand that a nonnal distdbution is a probability modcl for continuous random

variable and that it arises in many practical situations;

• (c) undersland the nature ofthe

E(X):

tt and VruQ() :

normal distdbution N(ll, d 2):

a'1

.

the nomal curve is sl,Tnmetrical about /

the location

respectively

attd shape ofa normal curvc are detemin€d by the values of 1r and

.

the.rea under the curve bctween.r

= a and.x=

thc total area under a nonnal curve is 1

6 is the probability p(a < x < 6)

• (d) understand that a normal variable -y -

vanablc Z - N(0, l)hy Z:"

(t

P

-

N(11, a ,) is rclated to the standard

nomal

• (c) solve problems concerning a variable;f, where,y - N(a, ar), including:

.

fildin8 the value of PQf < rr) or a related probability, given fhc values ofrl,

finding

4,

a

the rclationship between.rl, /, a, given the value ofp(X < jrr) or a rclated

pr ohrhr lrtl

• (f) use a graphic calculator to calculate probabilities;

• (g) apply thc nonnal distribution ,I. - N(a, o,) to solvc statistical problems in real-world

situations;

• (h) use thc fact fhat ifll

has a nonnal distributior, thcn dX+ b has a nonnal distribution

withE(ax + b) = aE(^) 1 b and. Va(aX I b) : a2 V a(E,

• (i) use the fact that if -Y and I have indqrcndent norDal distributions,

thcn aX + bY has a normal

distribution with E(a{ I 64 : dE(_y) + ,E(u and

Va4aX I br): t!2V.rt(X) + bzVar(t);

• (j) use the nomal distribution, with continuity correctio{,

distribution

whcre appropriate

approximately);

to approximate the binomial

(r is sufficiently large to ensuri that np > S and nq > 5,

• (k) usc the normal distribution, with

contilluity

correcti{xr, to approximate drc poissoll

distribution wher.e appropriate (l > 10, approximately).

c27-l

SRIC Martmti6 DcDanndlt

#1

Backgro nd Kriowledge

1) Continuous Random Variables

JC2 tD ChaDrd 2?: Norul Dskibution lsrrdar's 6nvl

Continuous random variables arise whenever we deal with quantities that are measured on a

@ntinuous scale. Exarnples of continuous random variables are height, weight, amount of

alcohol in a person's blood and the speed of a car. For example, heights of membem of a

population measuled will rot follow discrete values. The variable can take any value in the

interval (a, b).

2) Densitv Curves

When analysing data, one of the most common forms of graphical presentation of a frequency distribution is the histogram. When we analyse continuous random variables using histograms, we will reed to goup the observations on a horizontal scale into classes.

Consider a relative frequency histogram with such a scale chosen such that the area vrithin each ba. is €qual to the proportion of observations within the range represented by the bar. Total area rq)r€sented by the bars ofthe histogram equals l.

.

If we think of histoglams with narower ard trarrower classes, we can approximate the

histogram by a smooth curve such that the curve has total area of I underneath it.

O:12

o.1

0_@

1t!J2

0

15 16 t7

Such a curve is called a densify curye of the disaibution.

#2

The Nomal Disfiibution

The norriral distribution has a bell-shaped density cuwe with equation

f 1x1 -

---J.--

,

f(*)

c21 2

If a continuous random variablc lf is normally distributed with mean p and variance o2, we

write L .- N(/,o'?). The mean p and variance o2 are thc parameters ol the distribution.

o = J"urjance is the standard deviation ofthe distribution

lmportant ProDertics:

rrl

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

I

The curve is bcll-shaped and is svmmetrical about the vertical linej:

The curwc approaches the jr-axis asynptotically i.e. as 'r )

ico, /(.r) )

ln a nomal dist.ibuti o\, the fiean, median and mode coinctdc.

U, the mcan,

0.

.

The rneau, p, is an ildicatior ofthe central tendency ofthe data. Diffcrent values of p

iDdicate diffcront localion ofthe mean_

• (s) The varialcc o2 is an indication ofthc rlispersion (spread) ofthe drta. 1.hc smaller

o2,

the smaller the dispersior and the narrower thc bell shape (i.c_ clata clustercd togcther).

No(e that the vanancc o2 should always have a positive va1ue,

differcnt vaianrcs

differcftt means

(6)

The actual shape and location of the bcll-shapcd cLrrwc depends on the values of p and

{7)

P(a<X<b\: arca under thc density curwc betwecn _r: a alld r:6.

However_ note

that we will use the graphic calculato. to evaluafe this probability.

x

{:27 3

(8) Total area under a nomal density cuwe is l.

(e)

The 68 95-99.7 Rule

In any nomal distribution:

.

68% ofthc observations

between p oandp+o,

lalls approximately within I standard deviation ofp , i.e.

95yo ofthe observations

falls approximately withi 2 standard deviations ofp , i.e.

bctwccn p 2('andp+2o.

99.77o ofthe observations lalls approximatcly within 3 stardard deviations ofp ,

i-e. bet\$'ccn p

3{Jandp+3ci.

#3

S tan d a d N o ftn dl D istrib utio n

The distribution N(0,1) is known as the Standard Normal Distribution- The random variable,

denoted by Z for this distribulion is known as the standard normal variable.

z - N(0, 1)

The mean is 0 and the variance is l-

standardisirrg-

is sucir thal

c27 4

#4

Finling prcbabilities using the Graphic Calculator

EExample 1: If )l-N(100,25), find

(a) P(95 < x < 105)(Ans:

)

Method l: using normalcdf(

ffi'"3TFHr,

2r noFrats l.rdl:

6:

?.LX

X2Fdf(

4

r

(

Stell 2 : Press

(95'

.6A26e94S89

Note: The mrmbers 95, 105, 100 and 5 represent thc lower limit,

uppcr limit, rnean and

strndard dcviation rcspectively. The last entry is the standard deviation, not the var.ianqe!

It is inportant to use a suitablc window

4o

setting

to view the whole

+4o

and a suitablcX@* - value of I

graph.

Note that a suitable

tdIHoouJ

Xri

in=86

Alier Step i as in Method 1, use the right arrow key to highlight

..

DR

W,'-

Step 2: Press [lto

0 r sTR

tllifit!.

Z:5htsde

Step 3: Press

(b) P(X < 95)(Ans:

)

ftr+{:.692€Sg

ljp=105

nort'EIcdf(-E99,9

5, 180, 5 )

• I . 1586552596

(c) P(X > I03) (Ans:

)

t

(

183

! E9

. ?7425f,8646

c2t-5

• (d) Using your answer to (b) and (c) above, deduce the value of P(95 < X < 103) .

Check your

a swcr using GC.

P(95<X<103) -

I

0.159 0.274 - 0.567

, 166,5)

183

.5670916759

x

• (e) Find P(J(>103 or -Y<95)

0.507

_L

0.214' o.tss J

:0.431

Note two different methods

here. Why are thcy equal?

&l!9:

If the values of p

arul o arc not specified, the default values ofo and I rospectively

will be used by the calculator.

Useful facts:

tf f

- N(p,o'?), and d and b arc real constants,

l. P(X = a)= 0, since probability is measured by area under the curvrl, and the

line lr

has no thickness. Therefore,

P(X >.r)= P(x > a), P(x < D)= P(,Y < b) and

P(a < X <b)=t'(a <. X <b) etc.

• 2. P(,Y > ,1)= 1- P(r. < ").

• 4. P(X< a)=P()r>a) (synmetry of{hecurve)iflr=0

Example 2 (Do it yoursel0:

Given that P(Z < u) = \$ , yalqs 6 < 0.5, express in terms of D, the

(it) P(Z > a);

probability

(ilt)P(z <

-a)

.

> 0-5 ?

Solution

Note: d

is negative

P(.2 >

(il)

P(Z > a\ =P(/a a1=

(ril)P(Z < -a) =l

P(Z> a)-

lYes / Nol

(by syrmetry)

Note: llrc lecturc. will demonst.ate

the concepts involvcd with

diagrams of thc bcll-shaped curvcs.

c27 -6

Example 3: Given that PQZI<a)=b, where a and 6 are constants and 0<6<1, express

P(Z < a) in tenns of6.

Solution P(Z > a) =

(by sl,nmetr,

1+h

2

r #5

Finding the vatae of x., given p(X < x,) yo, X - Method: using invNorm (probability given,ll, o)

N(p,crr)

Example 4: Ifd, N(67,2.5,), find the 80th porcentile ofx

Solution

Let thl} 80rh percentile be /r.

P(X<(7)=0.8

):69.1

Therefore, a = 69.1 (to3 s.f.)

stepl:Press @trRsl

Step 2: Prcss

all6

 Finding the relationship between xt, p, o given the vatue o7 p(X probability

< x,) ol a related

Exampte 5 (Do it yourseto: If.f-N(p, o2)and p(X<10)

p

and, o.

= 0.3, find a relationship between

Solution

o

)_0.1

C27 'I

Thus P(Z <

) = 0.3 with Z-N(0, 1)

Using GC following steps illustratal in Example 4,

i nuHonnn ( 6. f, )

-.5244485191

Example 6: If-Y- N(n. 5), find the least integer valuc m such that P(X > 8) > 0.02.

Solution

Method 1

Given P(X >

8) > 0.02,

P(x<8)>0.02

Using cC, P(Z <

)=0.98

::t m > 3.4077

inuNorrr(8.98

2.953748911

Lcast integer value ofm :4

Method 2

Using GC,

P(X>

P(X>

8) :0.01267

8) :0.03682

(< 0.02) whcn m = 3

(> 0.02) when

lz = 4.

Least integer valuc ofrr = 4.

Steo Ii Press flJ

t-'"

-l

t

Step 2: Press

\V

r Er-l.fFr'l-3 1cdf {B,

\Va=I

stcp 3: Prcss @

FRApH lacccss tabte

0

!I

s

1.7E -'r

8.7E -q

_n4J5S

01:67

-+1682

_089S6

• 5 .13555

4=4

c21 A

Example 7:

The marks in a Mathenatics

exan are lbund to bc approximately nonnally

mor|] than 60 marks.

distributcd with mean 70 and standard devialion 20

(b)

lfa candidatc is selectcd at random, fiod the probabilityhe scores

If two candidates are selected at random, find the probability that both of them score

between 45 and 65 ilclusive.

• (c) If tbree candidates are sclected at random, find the probability that one ot them scores

more than 60 marks
(d)

and the othcr two lcls than 60.

lf l57o ofthe candidates are gmdcd as,4, calculate the lcast mark for,4.

Solution I-€t X be the random variablc "marks

ofa randornly

0.691

• (b) P(45<L<65) =0.29564

Required probability =

= 0.0874

chosen canclidate ...

l

X-' N(

._

.

)

78,28J.29564t8867

• (c) Required probability

:ifii"t:-''r'Y"

• (d) Let rr be thc least mark for grade,4.

Method I

r(x

4,)

=m.

using iflvNornl(0_95, 70, 20)

..

least rnark is 90.7

P(r <z) =

=nonnalcdf( - E99. m, 70, 20) - 0.85 :0

ecn: B=noFrqE I

?B)-0. 'ldf

{

Using GC, frorn Equation Solver,

.'. least mark is 90 7

I eft-rt=B

..

... 1

c21-9

Example 8: Six hundred rounds are fired from a gun at a horizontal target 50 m long which

cxtends

liom 950 m to 1000 m in range from thc gun. The trajectories

of thc rounds all lie in the

vertical plane through the gun

and target- It is found that 27 rounds fall short of the target and

69 rounds fall beyond it. Assuming the range of rounds is normally distributed, find the mean and standard deviation of the range. Estimate the number of rounds falling within 5m o f the

centre ofth(r target.

TTrajectoW

Let X be the

lr"'N(l ,o).

random variable "range of a randomly choscn round fired from the gun-"

Given that 27 rounds fall shofi of thc target, P (,Y < 950) =

\o)

using cc, 950-lt = t.6g5qo

9s0-11= 1.695400 ---'

I

Given that 69 rounds lall beyond thc targcl, I,(X > 1000):

P(r < looo) =

o

1000-p = 1.20036o -

*-----------(2)

Solving

(l) and (2) gives d:

I

I . -4ErErJJclo|Jrl

Ceotre oftarget is at 975 m from the gun. Fo. the rounds to lall within 5 m of the centre of the farget, 970 < X < 980

using cc, P(970 < t <980)=9.2214)

Therefore, estimated number of rounds

c2'1 10

ncl^r.rE I c.df {976,

-2?,1=j62437

#7

Sum & Diffarence

For any random variable X and real constants a and ,,

e(ax + t)= aa(x)+6 and Var(a.r + 6)= a' var(x)

Thus if -r( ..

• - N(4,o'?), rhen ax +6 - N(a p +b, a'o,)

For zury two indcpendent mndom variables )l

E(aX! bl) =. aE(E t

6E(I,); Va.(a.yl DI)

.{d y. and for an\ rcal consta0ts a md b.

- a? VarQf) +6r Var(t')

IfXand f are two independent normal random variables such that

(iii)

aX +6Y - N(a4, + bp,, a'1 o,' + hl o,'z 1

(iv) aX tlY

- N(a7r, b4., d'o,' + b. cr,' 7

For example: -]f - N(-1,4),

)

,

)

f - N(10, 5),,f aod I/arc indepcndent

{r\ )

-lt

- t,

(';';)

We can cxtend the above resulls as follows:

..

a.c r indepcndent normal mndom variables such that

,

-y,, - N(7r",o,,r) thcn

.

.

Xt + X,+ alxt +qXz+

...

-.+

.....

x,, .'N(1, + lt.+

+

a,,X^

t,,,.o,, + oj +

u,,p,,,

o1;)

......

..._....

- N(a,p, + a,p, +

...

,

...

-ajoj)

For example: L- N(2, 5),

tiit zt

2l

I'- N(0,9), n/-N(I,16)

-{ I and l/ are independc'nt

)- N(r, 30)

J-"{'l ")

c27 tI

-E-rzrcr'se (Do it yoursel0: IfX- N(60, 16) and y - N(70, 9), ,fand y are independent, lind

Solution

Using GC,

(i")

P(X +Y <t4o)=

P(Y X >'7)=

P{2 <Y X <t2)=

Nsla:

)

Difference between the distributioo of 2X and X, 'r- X, :

X t + X 1 - N(2p, o' + ct'I : N12p, 2o'1

BfiT

2X - N(2p.21o1) =N(2tt,4o))

Example 9: l.afld yare independent random variables which are both normally distributcd, the

respectivc pammeters being

,r
Y

120

Variance

25

20

(a) Calculate

(i) P(,r + y > 235), (ii) P(y > r,

(iii) P(Ja> ] y).

1

(b) Find the probability that the total sum ofthrce indcpendent obsoiwations ofJa exc€eds 330.

Solution

x+r-N(

)

Using GC, I,(X + L > 235) =

r x-N(

)

Using GC, P(Y > X) =

1

Nr

t lsrng Ca, P(X

(b) .r, + x, + ra" -

N(

4

f)=

Using GC, P(Xt + X7 + X, > 330):

)

Nt 10. Jb.,)51

) - N(300, 7s)

c21 t2

Examplc l0: The cxamination marks of the boys arc

of 55

with slandard deviation I I and the marks of the girls arc normally distributed about a rnean of

58 with standard deviation 8-

Ifone boy and one girl are chosen at random fiom the complete

marks are independcnt, calculate the probability tha{

list ofcandidatcs and assuming their

• (a) both ofthem have inarks over 75.

• (b) the girl's marks is at least 20 more tlun

fhe boy,s marks.

• (c) the differcnce betwced their marks is more than 3_

Solution Let B be the raldorn variable "marks ofa randomly chosen

C be tlrc rrndum ranabl< nrlrks ofa landnmly ehrrscn girl '

boy', and

and G-N(

)

(a) Using GC' P(B > 75 and G > 75)

(b)c B-N(

)

Using GC, p(G > B +20\=

(c) P(c

Bl> 3) =

:0.5+0.32956

= 0.830

l."Tpl"11:

lhc mass oftea ir Hiptor

standard dcviation 0.12 g. I hc mass of

mran 5.2 g rnd sr:rndcr J dcviation 0. l5 g.

tcabags has a nonnal distribulion with mcan 4.t g and tca iu Lloldtch teabags has a normal disribLrlion wirl)

• (a) Find thc probability that fivc randomly chosen Hipton teabags contain a total of more thao

20-8 g of tea-

• (b) Fird the probability that the total

mass of tea in livc randorniy chosen Hipton teabags is

randomly choscn Boldtch ieabags.

two randomly chosen

BJldth tcabags is morc

more than the total mass oftea in lirur

• (c) Find the probability that the mass of tea in lhan rwo td a llclftimes lhc mass ol a rdtrdotnl) chosen Hiprorr tcabcg.

Solulton

I-et flbe the random variable,.mass ofa randomly chosen

Hipton teabag,,and

let B be thc random v;Lriable'.nass ofa randornlychosen Boliteh teabai,,.

H -N(4.1,0.122) and

t-lV(5.2.0.152)

(a) t,et Hl, I1), flt, H r

/1, be thc tnasscs ol fivc rantlrrrly choscn Hiplor ieabags.

I,€t X = Ht + H) 1 II. + II4+ II5

r.'N(

Using cC, P(.f > 20.8) =

) - N( 20.5, 0.072)

c2'7 tf

(b) Let 4,4,4,4

be the masscs of four randomly chosen Boldteh teabags.

y-N(

) - N(20.8, 0.09)

x,r -N(

) - N(-0.3, 0.162)

Usirg GC, P(X > Y) =

(c)4 +4 -2.511 - N(

P(4+ B, > 2.sH\ =

) - N().15, 0.135)

Example 12; The nass of a randomly choscn pewter omameot manufactured by a conrpany

follows a nonnal distribution with mean of 5 kg ard standard deviation 0.2 kg. The company

intends to manufacturc another set ofpewter omaments such that nass ofeach is double that ol the mass ofan original omament manufactured, Each ofthis ncw set of omaments is packe'd in a

box ofmass 0.1 kg. Write down the dist.ibution for the combincd mass ofeach ncw omament and its box. Ilence lind the probability that thc combined mass is less than 10_2 kg_

Solution Let )a be the randott vaiable " mass ofa randomly chosen pewter ornamolt from the odginal

set manul-acturcd by the company'.

).-N(5,0.2r)

Let )' bc thc random variable " cornbincd

mass ofa tandoinly chosen

pewter omamcnt liom thc

new sot rnanufactured by the company alrd its box"-

Y :2X +O.l

E(2X +0.1) =

r- N00.r,0.16)

Var(2X+0.1) =

llsirg GC, P(r < 10.2) =

Example 13: Melons are sold at a pricc of \$1.50 per kilogram. The lnasses of melons iuc nomlally dist.ibuted with a mean of 0.8 kg and a standard deviation of0.l kg. I'urnpkins arc sold at a pnce of \$0.50 per kilograrn. The masses of pumpkins are nonnally distributed wilh a

mean of 1.2 kg zurd a standard deviation of 0.2 kg. Find thc probability that thc total price of5 randomly chosel mclons and 3 randornly chosen pumpkins exceeds \$8.

Solution Let -f be the randorn variable "mass of a randomly choscn melon" and let I

be thc random

variable "mass ofa randomly chosen pumpkin". J-N(0.8,0.11andf.'N(1.2,0.21

Let M be the random

variable "total mass of5 randomly chosen n'telotls"_

M- N(

) -- N(4, o.os)

Let P be the

randor vanable "total nass of 3 randomly chosen pumpkins,'-

P-N(

)-N(3.6,0.12)

c)'t , 11

Let

T=

total price of 5 rzurdomly chosen melons aod 3 randomly chosen pumpkins be I dollars.

r-N(

) "' N1z-r, o. r+zsy

Using CC, l,(T> 8) :

#8

IJse of the Nor^al Distribution to Approximdte the Birromhl Dirtribation

Under certain circumstances, thc nomal distribution can be used to approximate the binomial distribution.

Given

that X -

B(tt, p), we

have E(,\') - zp and Vareg = 'pq, wh cte q = 1

lfn is largc

rhen q c can

(a > 50), such that

rp

> 5 and n4 > 5,

afrf\roxinlJlc X by X. Ntnp, npq).

p.

Consider thc following va.iations in values ofz andp:

nq

IO

o_2

?

{i

l0

0.5

5

5

l0

0_8

8

2

?o

0.8

l(r

4

• 30 0.8

24

6

• 60 08

4{t

12

• 60 l

0.95

57

(in ti rl tti4, Co rrc diotr

when -{- B(n, p) is

we assulrle P(at a

approxinutcd

single poht):

colrealr"r as foll()ws:

by

a .onnar variarrle

I,( I:,

whicrr is a continuous random variabre,

llence, we havo to pctforln continuity

X

X

c27 - 15

X

(iiD P(L> r)

, r1Xt, r - L1

P(X> r)

PQ(> r + 1;

r

-.,

t

H

• --T_--_-f_l- I

lr

2

I

2

P(x1< -Ii< rr) --:5

0-*---*---o

.t,t,*I

Example

14: It is known that in a sack of mixed

grass seeds, 35o% are

ryegrass. llse a suttable

approximation to find thc probability that in a sample of400 seeds, there are

• (a) lcss than 120 ryegrass secds,

• (b) bctween 120 and 150 rycgrass seeds (inclusive),

(r)

morc thrn lo0 ryegrass sccd\.

Solution

Let X bc the random variablc " number ofryegrass sceds in a samplc of400 seeds"-

x- 8(400, 0.35)

Since z is large and np =

X- N(140, 9l ) approximately.

U"ing CC,

• (a) P(X <

120) jj)P(,Y<

(b)

P(120<X<150) rj+P(

(c)

:140(> 5), nq =

)=0.0158

<X<.

):0.849

):0.0158

=260(>5) ,npq:91,

Example 15: The probability that the random variable X has a value less than 1.9 is given to be

0.95. tJsing a sairaDlc apprcximation. find the probability that 77 or morc of 80 observations of ,Y arc lcss than I.9.

Solution I-ct I be the random variable "numbcr ofobservations ofx, out of80, that are less than L9".

r- B(80,0.95)

c27 - L6

Since a is la-rgc, np : 76 (> 5), but q=80x0.05=4(<5),wecnnnotapproximatetoanormal

distribution.

Let

y'be the random variable "number ofobservations of_tra, out ofg0, that are a1 least 1.9,,.

)

approximarely,

v'-B(

#9

Use ofthe Nornal Distribation to Apploximate the poissoft Distribution

Ifx- Po(7,), then E(]')- ?., Var(X)

i".

Ifl,

is large (1" > 10), then X- N(i" , )") approximately.

Note'. We need to perform

contiluity correction when usirtg the normal dpproximdlion to

apprc'rimdte d Poiss on distribldion.

Example 16: StLppose,Y- Po(25), use a suitable approxinration b find l,(22 < _f < 26).

Solution Since ,t = 25 (> 10), X-N(

,

Using

GC, P(22<X <26)- li)P(

) approximarelv.

<X<

)=

Example l7: A radioactive disintegntion gives counts that foll.w a poisson distnbutior with

mean count

27 inclusrvc.

per second o125. Find tlre probability that in I second the count is bctween 2l and

• (a) using the Poissol distribution.

• (b) using the nonnal approxinution to the poisson dist.ibution_

S:rl!Jt!!

• (a) Letf be the raodom variablc ..

,r.' Po(25)

counts

Using GC, P(23<X <.27\=p(X <

) p(_r< ) =0.70019 0.31753

{b).f - N(25, 25) approximately

c2't - 11