Ranges (Up till 11.

30am HKT)
Currency

Currency

EURUSD

1.0928-48

EURJPY

135.62-89

USDJPY

123.93-124.29

EURGBP

0.70065-16

GBPUSD

1.5579-1.5612

USDSGD

1.3726-57

USDCHF
AUDUSD

0.9665-92
0.7284-0.7306

USDTHB
USDKRW

34.010-17
1167.7-1173

NZDUSD

0.6569-0.6617

USDTWD

31.507-625

USDCAD

1.2991-1.3010

USDCNH

6.2189-6.2219

AUDNZD

1.1020-97

XAU

1084.2-1089.5

Key Headlines
It is called kick a man when he's down Bloomberg
article talked about the Malaysian FX reserves due to
drop because of currency intervention and there is this
blogger who said he travelled to Shanghai, interviewed
the mainland stock investors how much
margin/leveraged they have.
Profit taking dominated Asia, UsdJpy slipped to a low
of 123.93 despite the buying interest from US names
within 124.00. Euro stuck in 1.0928-48 range, buying
from Asian names in the thirties; Nzd is probably the
only one that underperformed.
IMF said it would have no involvement in Greece until
it receives explicit assurances over debt sustainability.
Meanwhile in Athens, Syriza party will hold an
emergency congress in September, after the negotiations
with creditors are done and dusted. What if the creditors
delay the decision in Aug?

FX Flows
New Zealand reported weak July ANZ business
confidence and Nzd fell from 0.6610 to 0.6583. We saw
some guys jumping into AudNzd when the cross broke
above 1.1055. This suppressed the NzdUsd at 0.6569;
cross rose to 1.1094.
AudUsd is supported by the AudNzd interest. There is
also this Aud 0.7250 option expiry NY cut today, worth
about Aud900mio.
Since the IMM closed, Euro got stuck in a 1.0925-36
range in Asia we did 1.0928-48! We saw some Usd
selling, profit taking from North Asian names sent Euro
towards the high but ran out steam and reverted to
1.0938. Am told profit taking activities are seen below
1.0900; 1.0800-20 remains the long term support for
now. Intraday resistance at 1.0940 and the next set of
offers are at 1.0980.
IMF said it would have no involvement in Greece until it
receives explicit assurances over debt sustainability.
Meanwhile in Athens, Syriza party will hold an

emergency congress in September, after the negotiations

with creditors are done and dusted. What if the creditors
delay the decision?
Month-end rebalancing saw UsdJpy trade to low 123.93
trust banks bought dollars post-fix and we returned to
124.05. Tokyo banks said UsdJpy bids are scattered
down to 123.90; offers are planted at 124.50 and lots
more towards 124.70 and 124.90. BOJ will buy Jpy30bn
of ETF today and there is an option strike at 124.00 exp
NY cut.
Spot Gold traded 1084.2-1089.5 with small demand
from Chinese retailers. I hear bids down 1082-1080 from
various names.

Asians
It is called kick a man when he's down best describe
the bloggers out to make a name for themselves.
38 consecutive days, fixing within this 6.11-handle. At
6.1172, not far off from yesterdays 6.1165. Stable fix,
calm in onshore and offshore. However, several China
experts are betting that Yuan will fall. we saw the 12month NDF points rising and CNH swap curve
steepening. WSJ article said bets are rising that Chinas
currency is headed lower with its stock market, a signal
of waning investor confidence in the countrys ability to
manage its economic slowdown and market turmoil.
One blogger wrote that he was recently in Shanghai and
had the opportunity to interview some mainland
participants of the stock market. I seriously wonder how
this English speaking foreigner or Kwai-lo
communicate with the Shanghainese and how he
travelled to the village to see the farmers?
1s UsdMyr NDF opened at 3.8500, onshore kicked off at
3.8140. 1-month NDF points widened to +335 and
backed off to +270. Story in Bloomberg that Malaysias
FX reserves are set to drop below $100bn from
stemming Ringgit decline. I do agree about the
intervention but if one is to put money into betting they
are running out of money, better have a read on the
Chiangmai Initiative Agreement. Malaysia can borrow
up to 2.5 times their contribution and they can always
ring up ASEAN+3 central banks for assistance.
Korean Won strengthened on demand from onshore
exporters, for month end re-balancing. Onshore spot
opened at 1173, which was the high of the session and
slipped to 1167.7.
Interesting words used in this article from the flagship
newspaper of the Communist Party of China following
the removal of Guo Boxiong from CPC. Guo was the

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

former vice chairman of the Central Military

Commission. The newspaper said "One demon killed, all
demons deterred anti-corruption sword must be
raised high to cut the bud of corruption and make the
corrupt pay a price.

retain a financial interest in a Brevan Howard vehicle,

allowing him to receive long-term incentive payments
based on the hedge funds size.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/30/ba
nk-of-england-mpc-gertjan-vlieghe-scrutiny-treasury

Who said what

FT: Corporate giants sound profits alarm over

China slowdown
Some of the worlds largest companies have sounded the
alarm about the slowdown in the Chinese economy,
warning that weaker growth would hit profits in the
second half of the year. Car companies such as PSA
Peugeot Citron, Audi and Ford have slashed growth
forecasts while industrial goods groups such as
Caterpillar and Siemens have all spoken out on the
negative impact of China. The warnings are a sign that
Chinas weaker growth and its stock market rout this
month are creating a headache for global corporates that
have long relied heavily on the worlds second-largest
economy to drive revenues.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8dacba88-36c4-11e5b05b-b01debd57852.html#axzz3hKbFAMBo

Japan Aso: Expects the economy to recover in Q3 2015

Japan Aso: Watching Chinese stock market but not
making any predictions
Japan Aso: Transparency an issue in Chinese stock
market
Japan Aso: Declined to comment on TPP talks on FX
manipulation panel

News & Data

South Korea Aug Business Survey Manufacturing at 70
vs 67
South Korea Aug Business Survey Non-Manufacturing
at 71 vs 66
South Korea June Industrial Production SA M/M up
2.3% from -1.3% (revised -1.6%)
South Korea June Industrial Production Y/Y up 1.2%
from -2.8% (revised -3%)
UK July GfK Consumer Confidence at 4 from 7, exp. 5
Japan June Unemployment Rate rose to 3.4% from
3.3%
Japan June Overall Household Spending fell 2% from
+4.8%
Japan June National CPI Y/Y 0.4% from 0.5%
Japan June National CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y
unchanged at 0.1%
Japan June National CPI Ex-Food, Energy Y/Y rose
0.6% from 0.4%
Tokyo July CPI Y/Y at 0.2% from 0.3%
Tokyo July CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y fell 0.1% from 0.1%
Tokyo July CPI Ex-Food, Energy Y/Y 0.3% from 0.2%
New Zealand July ANZ Activity Outlook at 19 from
23.6
New Zealand July ANZ Business Confidence fell 15.3
from -2.3
Australia Q2 PPI Q/Q up 0.3% from 0.5%
Australia Q2 PPI Y/Y at 1.1% from 0.7%
The Guardian - Bank of England: new MPC
member faces scrutiny from Treasury MPs
The Treasury select committee is preparing to challenge
newly appointed member of the Bank of Englands
monetary policy committee, Gertjan Vlieghe, to prove his
independence from the hedge fund Brevan Howard,
where he is a partner. Vlieghes appointment as one of
the four external members of the MPC was announced
earlier this week when the chancellor, George Osborne,
said the hedge fund economist would replace David
Miles on the rate-setting committee from September. It
is a three-year term. Reuters reported that Vlieghe would

Reuters: GE may ship $10 billion in work

overseas as U.S. trade bank languishes
General Electric Co is taking steps to shift some U.S.
manufacturing work overseas now that the U.S. ExportImport Bank will be shuttered at least until September,
the industrial giant's global operations boss told Reuters
on Thursday. GE Vice Chairman John Rice said the
conglomerate is bidding on over $10 billion worth of
projects that require support from an export credit
agency (ECA) like Ex-Im. With Ex-Im unable to extend
new loans or guarantees thanks to an effort by
congressional Republicans to shut it down, GE is
arranging with ECAs in other countries to finance the
deals involved, with much of the production going to GE
plants in those foreign locations. The prospective
government partners include Canada, the United
Kingdom, France, Germany, China and Hungary, he
said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/30/us-usaeximbank-general-electric-idUSKCN0Q42J920150730?
feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitt
er
WSJ: Cargills Black River Asset Management
Shutting Four Hedge Funds
Cargill Inc.s Black River Asset Management LLC plans
to shutter four of its hedge funds and return more than
$1 billion to investors over the next several months,
Black River executives said. The closure of the funds
marks the latest blow for Black River, which earlier lost a
chunk of its assets under management due to the
decision last year by the California Public Employees
Retirement System to exit its hedge-fund investments.

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

Cargill recently decided to withdraw its money from the

four funds being closed.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/cargills-black-river-assetmanagement-shutting-four-hedge-funds-1438292912?
mod=wsj_nview_latest
WSJ: U.S. Banks Take Global Lead
In the trans-Atlantic rivalry for investment-banking
supremacy, the Americans are running up the score. The
diverging paths are now clear, at least to investors. Over
the past five years, the shares of J.P. Morgan Chase &
Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have climbed, on
average, by 45%. In the same period, European banks
Barclays, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank, UBS
Group AG and Royal Bank of Scotland PLC are down
17%.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-banks-take-globalleadu-s-banks-take-global-lead-1438300606
WSJ: Canadian Oil Sands Posts Loss on Lower
Crude Prices
Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. on Thursday reported a net loss
in the second quarter, citing lower prices for its crude
and the effect of a two percentage point corporate tax
hike in the Western Canadian province where it
operates. The largest owner of the Syncrude oil sands
project in northern Alberta lost 128 million Canadian
dollars ($98.4 million), or 26 Canadian cents a share, in
the three months to June 30, compared with a net profit
of C$176 million, or 36 Canadian cents a share, in the
year-earlier period.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/canadian-oil-sands-postsloss-on-lower-crude-prices-1438296801?
mod=wsj_nview_latest
WSJ: Greeces Syriza Will Hold Emergency
Congress in September
Greeces ruling Syriza party decided Thursday to hold an
emergency congress in September, shifting the problem
of dealing with the partys far-left dissenters until after
the negotiations with the countrys international
creditors over a third bailout package are concluded. The
roughly 200 members of Syrizas central committee
voted against a proposal to carry out a congress
immediately, a decision that could derail the continuing
negotiations on an up to 86 billion euro bailout. But the
tense atmosphere during the gathering at an old movie
theater made clear that the partys split is unavoidable. A
formal division within Syriza would strip Greek Prime
Minister Alexis Tsiprass coalition and force snap
elections. Snap national elections are expected to follow
the congress in fall.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/greek-prime-ministeralexis-tsipras-calls-for-syriza-party-vote-to-address-

divisions-over-bailout-1438264372?
mod=wsj_nview_latest
BBC Greek debt crisis: IMF wary of third bailout
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is very wary of
any financial contribution to a third Greek bailout. The
implication of remarks by an IMF official is that it is very
unlikely to provide funds at the first stage. The fund
could however join in later, provided both the eurozone
and Athens take steps to address IMF concerns.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33727276
Kathimerini: Tsipras grapples with party
dissenters over bailout, unity
The outlook for the fragile cohesion of SYRIZA, and the
prospects for a deal with international creditors,
appeared unclear late on Thursday night as members of
the leftist party remained locked in tensed discussions
over both issues. A session of the partys central
committee which started at around noon ran late into
the night as MPs and officials discussed how to address
serious objections within the party to the prospect of
further austerity. The options being discussed included a
party referendum on whether the government should
continue bailout talks with creditors and seal a deal, or a
party congress.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/200103/article/ekathime
rini/news/tsipras-grapples-with-party-dissenters-overbailout-unity
Bangkok Post: Thai Navy argues subs protect
seas
The navy has launched a nine-page white paper on the
urgent need to purchase submarines to safeguard
lucrative national maritime interests and maintain
security during maritime conflicts. Critics earlier this
month condemned the navy's proposal to spend roughly
36 billion baht on Chinese submarines. The white paper,
ordered by Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon,
appears to be an attempt to drum up public support for
the submarines.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/security/639592/n
avy-argues-subs-protect-seas

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.