U.S Turkish Collaboration Off To A Shaky Start

7/31/2015
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U.S.TurkishCollaborationOfftoaShakyStart|Stratfor
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U.S.-Turkish Collaboration Off to a Shaky Start

Analysis JULY30,2015|22:30GMT Print TextSize
Analysis
Editor'sNote:Stratforclosely
monitorsconflictzonesfroma
geopoliticalperspective.Whatis
perhapsthemostvolatileconflict
todaycanbefoundinthe
territoriesofIraqandSyriathatare
controlledbytheIslamicState.
Thoughtheseareasare
cartographicallydistinct,theyare
functionallylinked:Sunnitribal
structures,rebeloperations,
Kurdishinterests,external
influencesandthesuzeraintyof
theIslamicStatebindthem
togetherasasingle,coherent
theater.
TheIslamicStatecapitalizedonthechaosoftheSyriancivilwarandthe
inadequacyofIraqisecurityforcestotakeoveralargeswathofthe
MiddleEast.Aftermakingsomeimpressivegains,includingthetakingof
theIraqicityofMosul,theIslamicStatenowfindsitselfinanincreasingly
difficultposition,againstwhichawidearrayofopponentsarealigned.
Nonetheless,thegroupisuniquelyresilientand,assuch,remains
extremelydangerousandunpredictable.
InadditiontoexaminingthecombatantsinsidetheSyriaIraqbattlespace,
Stratforalsotracksthepoliticalmachinations,negotiationsandgoalsof
outsidethebattlespace,includingIran,Russia,theGulfmonarchiesand
theUnitedStates.Forthefirsttime,inoneplace,Stratforisproviding
routineupdatescoveringthegains,lossesandextentoftheIslamic
State'ssocalledcaliphate.
KeyAnalyses
Obama'sStrategyMeets
RealityinIraqandSyria
TheIslamicState'sGains
MaskItsWeakness
TheIslamicState's
GrowthHasLimits
ArabMilitaries'
Weaknessesarethe
IslamicState'sStrengths
WhySunniUnityIsaMyth
WhyShiiteExpansionWill
BeShortLived
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/usturkishcollaborationshakystart
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July 30
TheGeopoliticsofthe
SyrianCivilWar
United States, Turkey, Syria
ARiskyU.S.ProxyBattle
AgainstIslamicState
AU.S.backedrebelgroupknownasDivision30releasedastatement
claimingthatitsleader,Col.NadimalHassan,waskidnappedbyalQaedaaffiliateJabhatalNusra.Al
HassanwasonamissiontoestablishconnectionswithotherrebelgroupsnearAleppowhenhewas
captured,alongwithanumberofhiscolleagues.Mostofthe54graduatesfromtheU.S.sponsoredtrainand
equipprograminTurkeycamefromDivision30.
ThisisamajorsetbackduringthefirstweekofformalizedcooperationbetweenTurkeyandtheUnitedStates.
Afteryearsofpoliticalimpasse,thecountrieshavefinallyagreedtoworktogethertofighttheIslamicStatein
SyriaandIraq.TheUnitedStatesandTurkeyhopethatcooperationwilladvancetheSyriancivilwartoa
positionwherebyanegotiatedsettlementcouldremovePresidentBasharalAssadfrompower.
ThoughAnkaraandWashingtonareactivelyworkingtogether,thereisnoagreementonwhichSyrianrebel
groupswithwhomtopartner.TurkeyismorepragmaticthantheUnitedStatesaboutwhotoincludeand
wouldliketoaccommodategroupssuchasJabhatalNusra,whichisalreadyaneffectivefightingforce.But
WashingtonisextremelywaryofassociatingwithanorganizationdirectlylinkedtoalQaeda.
JabhatalNusramostlikelystagedthekidnappingtomakeapointwhichistohighlighttheirrelevancyand
ensurethegroupisnotleftoutofU.S.Turkishdiscussionsoverwhichgrouptosupport.Meaningfulresources
arescarceinSyria,sobackingfrommajorcountriesliketheUnitedStatesorTurkeyisextremelydesirable.
WhetheralHassanandhiscohortarereleasedwillindicatehowcooperativeJabhatalNusraislikelytobein
thefuture.
OverallU.S.TurkishcooperationispredicatedontheideathatAnkarawillbeabletogetSyrianrebelgroups
tocooperatewitheachother.Thisiskeytoachievinganykindofsuccessontheground.Washingtonand
Ankaraprovideaidandairsupporttoselectrebelgroups,butneitherTurkeynortheUnitedStatesiswillingto
commitgroundforcesinsignificantnumbers.IfAnkaraisunableorunwillingtofacilitateasolutiontothe
rebelpartneringissue,orselectsunpalatableallies,WashingtoncouldwellbackawayfromTurkey,
withdrawingU.S.forcesfromIncirlikairbaseandreinvigoratingitsrelationshipwiththeKurds.
July 29
Iraq, Turkey
SaboteursattackedapipelinetransportingcrudeoilbetweentheIraqicityofKirkukandtheTurkish
MediterraneanportofCeyhan,haltingtheflowofoil,TurkishEnergyMinisterTanerYildizsaid.Theattack,
whichtookplaceneartheIraqiborderinTurkeysSirnakprovince,comesadayaftermilitantsattackeda
naturalgaspipelineinAgriprovince,neartheIranianborder.TheKurdistanRegionalGovernmentinIraq
reliesonpartoftheKirkukCeyhanpipelineforitsownexports.Thepipelinehasbeencarryingaround
300,000barrelsofoilperday,downfromitsmaximumoperationalcapacityof400,000barrelsdaily,because
ofotherrecentattacks,accordingtoIraqigovernmentfigures.
IraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadisaidthathiscouncilofministersviewstheongoingTurkishcampaignof
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airstrikesinnorthernIraqasadangerousescalationthatviolatesIraqisovereignty.Theprimeministersaid
viaTwitterthatthecounciliscommittednottoallowanyattackonTurkeyfromIraqiterritoryandcalledon
Ankaratorespectgoodrelationsbetweenthetwocountries.AnIraqiKurdishofficialalsocondemnedTurkeys
recentattacksagainstmilitantKurdishtargetsinIraq,SyriaandinsideTurkeyitself,callingforKurdishlocals
inDohukprovincetoprotestagainstTurkishmilitarybasesintheregion.Theofficial,PatrioticUnionof
KurdistanCentralCouncilchiefAdilMurad,saidTurkeyslongestablishedmilitarypresenceinDohuk
amountstoaforeignoccupation.
Syria
IsraeliaircraftstruckacarinaruralpartofQuneitraintheSyrianGolanHeights,killingthreepeople.Areport
bytheHezbollahlinkedAlManarsaidthestrikewascarriedoutbyanIsraelidrone,andthatthetwo
deceasedweremembersofamilitiathatsupportsSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad.TheIsraelimilitarywould
notcommentonthereport.IsraelwillcontinuetoproveintegraltoU.S.aimsinSyriabyalsopreventing
Turkeyfrombeingabletoclaimtheregionasitsownpersonalsphereofinfluence.
Syriasterritorialintegritymustbepreserved,theEgyptianforeignministrysaidinanapparentexpressionof
disapprovalofTurkeysmilitaryoperationsinthecountry.Cairosupportseffortstocombatterroristgroupsin
Syria,butsucheffortsmustoccurwithinthecontextofpreservingtheunityandintegrityofSyrianterritories,in
accordancewithinternationallegalnormsanddecisions.ThestatementdidnotmentionTurkeybyname.
United States, Turkey

AnkaraformallysignedadealwiththeUnitedStatesovertheuseofTurkeysIncirlikairbaseintheU.S.led
coalitionscampaignagainsttheIslamicState,theTurkishForeignMinistrysaid.Theagreementcoversonly
thefightagainsttheIslamicStateanddoesnotincludeairsupportforalliedKurdishfightersinnorthernSyria,
aspokesmanfortheministrysaid.Strategically,TurkeyhasnointerestinanindependentKurdishstate
appearingonitsborderwithSyria,whichwouldsetthestageforKurdswithsimilaraspirationsinTurkeyand
beyond.
July 28
Syria
SyrianrebelslaunchedanoffensiveongovernmentheldnorthwesternSyriainabidtoeventuallytakeover
thecoastalmountainsthataretheheartofSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad'spowerbase.Accordingtothe
SyrianObservatoryforHumanRights,theinsurgents,includingJabhatalNusra,tookovergovernmentheld
positionsinJisralShughourandpushedintothenorthernedgeoftheSahlalGhabplain.Meanwhile,Syrian
KurdsandtheSyrianarmypushedtheIslamicStatefromalHasaka.
Iraq, Turkey
TurkishfighterjetscontinuedtoattackmilitanttargetsbothinsideTurkeyandacrosstheborderinnorthern
Iraq.AftertakingofffromanairbaseinTurkeyssoutheasternDiyarbakirprovince,twoF16shitsixtargetsin
Iraq,anunnamedofficialsaid,Reutersreported.Airstrikesalsohitantiaircraftandmortarpositionsofthe
militantKurdistanWorkersParty(PKK)inTurkeyssoutheasternSirnakprovince,neartheIraqiborder.The
TurkishGeneralStaffsaidtheantiPKKactionwastakenfollowinganattackonTurkishgendarmerieforcesin
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theregionbysuspectedPKKmilitants.
Turkey, NATO
NATOstandsinstrongsolidaritywithTurkeyagainsttheactsofterrorandinstabilitythecountryisfacing
alongitssouthernborderwithSyriaandIraq,NATOSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergsaidattheopening
ofanemergencymeetingrequestedbyAnkaraofall28memberstates,AFPreported.Stoltenbergdidnot
commentspecificallyonTurkey'srecentlylaunchedcampaignofairstrikestargetingIslamicStateandKurdish
militanttargetsinIraqandSyria.OnJuly26,thesecretarygeneralsaidselfdefensehasto"proportional."On
boththedomesticandthestrategiclevels,Turkey'sinterestshavefinallybroughtAnkaraintothefight.
GeopoliticalDiary:Turkey'sdecisiontotakeamoreactiveroleintheSyrianconflictwillbe
welcomedbymany,includingtheUnitedStates.But,forfightersfromtheKurdishPeople's
ProtectionUnits(orYPG)inthesmallnorthernSyriantownofZurMaghar,theinterventionis
decidedlylesswelcome.CitingKurdishsources,HurriyetnewspaperreportedJuly27that
TurkishtanksfiredonU.S.backedYPGelementsinZurMaghar.TheTurkishForeignMinistry
wasquicktodenythereport,insistingthatthetargetsetforTurkishforceswaslimitedto
KurdistanWorkers'Party(PKK)militantsinnorthernIraqandIslamicStatepositionsinSyria.
Thisraisesspeculationthattheattackwaseitheranaccidentresultingfrommisidentificationor
thatTurkishforcesexploitedanopportunitytotargetYPGmilitantswithplausibledeniability.A
cochairmanofYPG'spoliticalparentgrouptheKurdishDemocraticUnionPartytoldAl
HayatnewspaperthattheKurdishmilitiamightbewillingtojoinSyriangovernmentforces,
presumablyinresponsetothedevelopingtensionbetweenTurkeyandtheSyrianKurds.Read
thefullGeopoliticalDiaryhere:AnInvigoratedTurkeyLashesOut.
July 27
Turkey, Iraq, Syria, United States
TheTurkishmilitaryattackedKurdishinsurgentcampsforthesecondconsecutivenight.Thestrikesoccurred
shortlyaftertheTurkishgovernmentblamedtheKurdistanWorkersParty(PKK)foraJuly25attackthatkilled
twoTurkishsoldierswoundedanotherfour,whenacarbombandroadsideexplosiveshitapassingmilitary
vehicleneartheDiyarbakirairbase.Gunmenalsoopenedfireonanearbypolicestationnocasualtieswere
reported.TheJuly27airstrikestargetedPKKpositionsnearthenorthernIraqibordertownofHarkuk.Turkish
PrimeMinisterAhmetDavutoglusaidthattheoperationshavechangedtheregionalgame,andhecalledfora
meetingofNATOstatesonJuly28todiscussthecampaigninSyriaandIraq.
TurkeyandtheUnitedStatesagreedtothesharedgoalofestablishingan"IslamicStatefreezone"along
TurkeysborderwithSyria.Theagreementinvolvesaroughly110kilometerlong(68mile)areawestofthe
EuphratesRiverandintoSyriasAleppoprovince.Thiszonewouldeventuallycomeundercontrolofthe
Syrianopposition.Severalissues,suchasthecompositionofmoderateSyrianoppositiongroundforcesthat
wouldbeusedtoholdtheprotectedarea,arestillunderdiscussion,sourcessaid.Washingtonisreportedly
adamantthatanyjointeffortswillnotincludeaformalmilitaryenforcednoflyzone,thoughAnkarastill
envisionsaircoverandprotectionfortheoppositionfighters.Ankara'sdecisiontocooperatewiththeUnited
StatesandactivelybattletheIslamicStatewillhaverepercussionsthroughouttheSyrianIraqibattlespace
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andwithinTurkeyitself.
Esewhere,SyrianKurdishforcesknownastheYPG,orPeoplesProtectionUnits,saytheirpositionswerehit
incrossbordershellingbytheTurkisharmy.TheattackoccurredontheoutskirtsoftheIslamicStateheld
townofJarablus,wheretheYPGhasbeenfightingthejihadistgroup.Inresponse,theTurkishmilitarysaidit
hasnotbeentargetingSyrianKurdishforcesinnorthernSyriawhosaytheywerehitbycrossbordershelling
earlieronJuly27.AmilitaryofficialsaidtheministrywasinvestigatingclaimsthatTurkishelementsengaged
positionsheldbyforcesotherthantheIslamicStateinSyriaorthemilitantKurdistanWorkersPartyinIraq.
Earlier,theKurdishPeoplesProtectionUnits,orYPG,whichhasbeenfightingtheIslamicState,saidTurkish
tankshititspositionsandthoseofalliedArabrebelsintheAleppoprovincebordertownofZurMagharand
anothernearbyvillage.ActivistswiththeSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightsalsoreportedtheTurkishfire.
Inaprovocativestatement,thecochairmanoftheKurdishgrouptheDemocraticUnionParty,SalihMuslim,
saidthatundertherightconditionstheYPGcouldjointheSyrianarmy.AccordingtoMuslim,iftheSyrian
armyabandonedtheBaathiststance,thegroupwouldconsiderjoiningit.
Finally,TheYPGalsocapturedthetownofSarrinfromtheIslamicState.Thesuccesscomesaftera
monthlongoffensiveintendedtocutthejihadistgroupssupplylines.IslamicStatefightershadusedthetown
asalaunchpadforraidsontheKurdishheldtownofKobanifurthernorth.AirstrikesfromtheU.S.ledcoalition
supportedtheassault.
July 26
Syria
MoreSyriansneedtojointhearmyforthemilitarytowinthecountry'scivilwaragainstrebelforces,Syrian
PresidentBasharalAssadsaidinanaddressJuly26.AlAssad,speakingadayafterheissuedanamnesty
fordeserters,saidthatwhilemorepeoplehavebeenjoiningthearmy,thenumberofsoldierswasnotenough
towinaconflictfoughtonmultiplefronts.Healsosaidthathisappealdoesnotmeanthemilitaryiscollapsing.
July 25
Turkey, Syria, Iraq
TurkishgroundforcesandfighterjetstargetedIslamicStatemilitantpositionsinnorthernSyriaaswellas
KurdistanWorkersParty(PKK)campsinIraqonJuly25.Inapressconferencethatsameday,PrimeMinister
AhmetDavutoglusaidthatTurkey'smoredirectinvolvementwouldcontinueandaslongasthethreatto
Turkeyremains.Ankara'ssteppedupinvolvementinIraqandSyriafollowedaJuly20IslamicStatesuicide
bombingofaculturalcenterinSurucneartheSyrianborder.Davutogluaddedthatthegoalwastocreatea
"safezone"innorthernSyriabyclearingtheareaofIslamicStatemilitants.Turkishpolicealsobeganapush
todetainpeopleacrossthecountrysuspectedofbeingIslamistorKurdishmilitantgroupmembers,arresting
almost600byJuly25.ThePKKrespondedtotheairstrikesandarrestswithanofficialstatementsayingthat
thegroup'strucewithAnkarahad"nomeaninganymore."
July 23
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Turkey, United States

AnkaraisexpectedtoallowtheU.S.ledcoalitionfightingtheIslamicStatetostationaircraftataNATObase
insouthernTurkey,accordingtoaJuly23WhiteHousestatement.U.S.PresidentBarackObamaandhis
Turkishcounterpart,PresidentRecepTayyipErdogan,reportedlyfinalizedanagreementonuseoftheIncirlik
AirBaseinAdanaduringatelephonecallJuly22.Thetwosidesinitiallyagreedinprincipleonuseofthebase
duringtalksJuly78.TurkeyalsoannouncedJuly23thatitplanstoflyairshipsandbuildatwofencedborder
systemwithamoatalongitsborderwithSyria.OnJuly22,Turkey'sdeputyprimeministersaidthatTurkish
authoritieshadarrestedatleast102IslamicStatesuspectsoverthepastsixmonths.TheUnitedStatesis
coaxingTurkeyintoplayingamoreactiveroleintheconflictinSyria.
GeopoliticalDiary:MultipleleaksinU.S.andTurkishmediaonThursdayclaimedthatthe
UnitedStatesandTurkeyhavereachedadealforU.S.ledcoalitionforcestouseTurkey's
IncirlikbaseforoperationsagainsttheIslamicStatefollowingaphonecalllateWednesday
betweenTurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganandU.S.PresidentBarackObama.Ourteam
hasbeencloselytrackinganumberofeventsoverthepastmonth,includingaTurkishmilitary
buildupattheSyrianborder,anintensificationofantiIslamicStatesecurityoperationsinTurkey,
arecentvisittoAnkarabyahighlevelU.S.delegationandtherecentIslamicStatesuicide
attackinSurucneartheSyrianborder.Thoughitwascleartousthatsomekindof
understandingwasdevelopingbetweenWashingtonandAnkarathatwouldinevitablydeepen
Turkey'smilitaryfootprint,thescopeanddetailsofthatunderstandingwerefoggyuntilnow.
ReadthefullGeopoliticalDiaryhere:HintsandLeaksConvergeonaTurkishAirBase.
Turkey, Syria
ShotsfiredfromtheSyriansideoftheTurkishborderkilledoneTurkishsoldierandwoundedatleastone
moreJuly23.AccordingtoTurkishoutletDoganNewsAgency,theshotscamefromanareacontrolledbythe
IslamicState.Sofar,AnkarahasbeenreluctanttosendtroopsintoSyriatoconfrontIslamicStatemilitants
directly,insteadcrackingdownontheIslamicStatenetworkwithinTurkey.
Iraq, United States

U.S.DefenseSecretaryAshCartermadeasurprisevisittoBaghdadJuly23toassessthesuccessofthe
campaignagainsttheIslamicState.ThisisCarter'sfirsttriptoIraqsincebecomingdefensesecretaryin
February.HewillmeetwithU.S.commandersandIraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadi.Meanwhile,Iraqi
forcesarereportingthatthefirststagesoftheoperationtoliberateAnbarweresuccessful.
IraqiFederalPoliceforcesattackedIslamicStatesitesinalMadyaqandalSadiqah,eastofRamadi,killing25
militantsanddestroyingsixvehicles.Thesameday,troopstrainedandequippedbyaU.S.ledcoalitionalso
joinedIraqioperationsforthefirsttimetoretakeAnbarprovince,AlArabiyaNewsreported.TheUnitedStates
hasover3,000troopsinthecountrytotrainandadvisetheIraqimilitary.
July 22
Syria
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MuhsinalFadhli,allegedlytheleaderofagroupofsenioralQaedamembersknownastheKhorasanGroup,
waskilledinaU.S.ledcoalitionairstrikeJuly8,aPentagonspokesmansaidJuly22.AlFadhliwastraveling
inavehiclenearthenorthwesternSyriantownofSarmada.TheKuwaitibornjihadistwasreportedlya
memberofOsamabinLadensinnercircleandhadadvanceknowledgeofthe9/11attacks.AirstrikesinSyria
willweaken,butnotdestroymilitantgroups.
Turkey
AnallegedmemberoftheIslamicStatewasshotandkilledlateJuly22inIstanbulbyamemberofamilitant
groupalliedwithanoutlawedKurdishparty.AccordingtoastatementreleasedbythePatrioticRevolutionary
YouthMovement,awingofthebannedKurdistanWorkers'Party(knowncommonlyasthePKK),themanhad
cometoIstanbulsevenmonthsagotoreceivetreatmentforwoundssustainedwhilefightingwiththeIslamic
StateintheSyriantownofKobani.Thegroupsaidithadbeentrackinghismovementsforthreemonthsand
thathewasplanningattacksinthecity.Suchassassinationoperationswouldcontinue,thegroupsaid.Amid
fourintersectingcrises,Ankara'sstrategyistobeconsistentlyambiguous.
July 20
Turkey
Atleast27werekilledand100morewoundedJuly20byanexplosionintheTurkishtownofSuruc,nearthe
Syrianborder.Thetownislocatedaround10kilometers(6.2miles)fromtheSyriantownofKobani,whichhas
beenacenterofconflict.Theblastreportedlytargetedaculturalcenterthathousedatleast300membersof
ayouthorganizationworkingtorebuildKobani.TheIslamicStateissuspectedtoberesponsibleforthe
attackTurkeyhasbeenconsideringplayingamoreactiveroleagainstthegroupinSyria.
Analysis:Thebombingwascarriedoutinthevicinityofaneventattheculturalcenter,against
asofttargetandamonglargecrowds.TheeventdrewmanyvolunteersfromIstanbulwhowere
ontheirwaytoperformreliefworkintheSyriancityofKobani.TheIslamicState'sextensive
reachthroughoutTurkeymeansithasthecapacitytocarryoutsimilarattacksinthefuture.This
isparticularlytrueintheregionneartheSyrianborder,wheretheIslamicStatehasbuiltupa
vastnetworkofsafehousesandagentswhofacilitatethetransferofrecruitsandsuppliesinto
Syria.
Turkey'sdecisiontocrackdownontheIslamicState'snetworkinthecountryleftthegroupwith
twooptions:First,itcouldrespondbyretaliatingagainstTurkeywithterroristattacksandcross
borderraidslaunchedfromSyria.Second,theIslamicStatecouldchoosenottoretaliateto
avoidabroaderTurkishoffensivethatcouldpotentiallyincludeattacksagainstIslamicState
targetswithinSyria.Ofthetwocoursesofaction,thesecondwasalwaysratherunlikelygiven
theIslamicState'spreviousbehavioranditspropensitytorespondtoanypressurewithforce.
Readthefullanalysishere:TheIslamicStateRetaliatesAgainstTurkey.
Syria
KurdishforcesareinnearfullcontrolofalHasakacity,followinganattackbytheIslamicStateinthearealast
month.ControlofalHasakahadbeensplitbetweengovernmentforcesandKurdishmilitias.IfKurdishmilitias
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backedbytheUnitedStatesgainfullcontrolofthecity,itwouldbeamajorblowtoDamascus.TheKurds
haveaccusedDamascusofbeingunabletoprotectthecityfromIslamicmilitants.
July 19
Syria
TheSyrianarmysteppedupairstrikesandretookvillagesinanewoffensiveonIslamistrebelsinthe
northeasterncoastalLatakiaprovince,armysourcessaidJuly19.Thearmyalsosaiditbombardedrebel
supplylinesandwrestedbackfivevillagesandhilltops.Islamistrebels,includingJabhatalNusra,control
manyvillagesintheborderlandsnorthofthegovernmentheldportcityofLatakia.Governmentforceshave
intensifiedtheircampaignintheprovincesincerebelstookthecriticaltownofJisralShughourinApril.
July 15
Turkey, Iraq
TurkeyplanstohostIraqipolicefortraining,TurkishForeignMinisterMevlutCavusoglusaidatanews
conferenceinAnkarawithhisIraqicounterpart.Undertheframeworkagreeduponbetweenthetwocountries,
TurkeywillalsocontinuetoequipandtraintheIraqiarmy.TheUnitedStateshasbeencoaxingTurkeyinto
playingamoreactiveroleintheconflictagainsttheIslamicState.
July 14
Iraq
IraqisecurityforcesretookeightareasofAnbarprovincefromforcesloyaltotheIslamicStateonJuly14,
unnamedsecuritysourcessaid.Iraqiforcesalsoreportedlyfoiledanattackonagovernmentcomplexin
Baghdad.Earlier,thecommanderoftheIraqiairforcesaidthatfourF16fighterjetsreceivedbytheIraqi
governmentonJuly13willparticipateinthemilitarysongoingoperationtoretakeAnbarprovincefromthe
IslamicState.TheU.S.ledcoalitioncarriedoutatleast29airstrikesnearRamadi,theprovincialcapital,
striking67IslamicStatestagingareasanddestroyingseveralvehiclesandpiecesofequipment,U.S.military
sourcessaid.
AnbarprovinceliesimmediatelytothewestofBaghdadandstretchestotheSyrianborder.Toclearthe
province,Iraqisecurityforceswillfirsthavetotakebackanumberofkeydefensivepositionsestablishedby
theIslamicStateinstrategiccitiesandbuiltupareas.ThefirstoftheseisthecityofFallujah,located50
kilometers(30miles)westofBaghdad.IraqiforceshavealreadybeguntheencirclementofFallujah,clearing
IslamicStatepositionsfromthesurroundingarea.Theplanofattackwilllikelybesimilartotheoperationto
retakeTikrittothenorth:Bycompletelyisolatingthetargetarea,securityforcescancutoffreinforcementand
resupplylinesaswellaspreventingIslamicStatefightersfromwithdrawingfromtheurbancoretofallback
positions.ReportsfromthegroundalreadysuggestthatsomeseniorIslamicStatecommandershavesent
theirfamiliesawayfromFallujahinanticipationofabloodyfight.
WhileBaghdad'sforceslearnedvaluablelessonsfromTikrit,theoperationtoclearFallujahwillbecostlyin
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termsofmanpower,materielandtime.Fightinginurbanterrainisvicious,andFallujahisbiggerandmore
complexthanTikrit.Also,theIslamicStatehashadtimetofortifytheirpositions,andthesametacticsthat
boggeddownIraqisecurityforcesontheoutskirtsofTirkitwillapplyevenmoresoinFallujahconcentric
ringsofimprovisedexplosivedevicesaswellasphysicalbarriersalongallthemainentrypointstocity,
coveredbydirectandindirectfirefromfortifiedpositions.IslamicStatefightersarelikelytodefend
aggressively,evenwhencutoff.InTikrittheyappliedtheprinciplesofantagonistic,mobiledefenseuntil
forcedtoconsolidateintosmallerpockets,whichfurtherincreasedtheirpotencybyconcentratingtheir
remainingforces.
EvenwithoverwhelmingforceandassistancefromIranianadvisorsandSunnitribalfighters,Baghdad's
assaultonTikritstalled,requiringU.S.ledcoalitionairsupporttobreakthestalemate.Airpowerwillbeakey
componentoftheFallujahoffensive,andU.S.aircrafthavealreadybegunerodingIslamicStateforcesin
depth.EveniftheassaultofFallujahgoesasplanned,Iraqisecurityforceswillhavetocontinuetoclearwest
alongtheEuphratesrivervalley,fightingthroughtheAnbarprovincialcapitalofRamadiandbeyond,tackling
theIslamicStatestrongholdsofHit,HadithaandQaim.
Syria
TheIslamicStatemadegainsagainsttheSyrianarmyinthenortheasterncityofHassakehJuly14,according
totheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights.FightinginthecityhasbeenongoingsinceJune25,whenthe
IslamicStateseizedtwoneighborhoods.Inthesubsequentweeks,fightinghaskilledsome170peopleand
themilitantshaveexpandedtheircontroltoHassakeh'ssouthernentrance,astadium,thealZuhur
neighborhoodandpartsofGhwayran.
July 13
Iraq
IraqiforceslaunchedanewoffensivetodrivetheIslamicStatefromAnbarprovinceonJuly13.The
operation,whichisbeginningwithanassaultonFallujah,willinvolveShiitemilitias,Iraqipolice,militaryunits
(includingspecialoperationsforces)andSunnitribesmenwhoopposethepresenceofIslamicState.Iraqi
PrimeMinisterHaideralAbadiarrivedattheheadquartersofthejointoperationstooverseethecampaign.
ThreevillagesinFallujahwerereportedlytakenfromtheIslamicStatebyoneofthemilitias.Overthe
weekend,U.S.ledcoalitionforcesconducted16airraidsinSyriaand11moreinIraq.Meanwhile,theIslamic
StatetookcreditforaseriesofbombingsinthecapitalonJuly12thatkilledatleast35peopleandinjured
another70.TheIslamicStateisreallyaninsurgencyratherthanaterroristgroup.Fightingawaronseveral
frontsandgoverningterritory,especiallylargecitiessuchasMosulandRamadi,requiresanincredible
amountofmoney,resourcesandmanpower.
Syria
AccordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights,anairstrikeinnorthwestSyriakilledtwoseniorIslamic
StateleadersJuly13.TheObservatory,whichgathersitsinformationfromactivistsinSyria,identifiedthe
leadersasanIraqinamedAbuOsamaalIraqiandaSyriannamedAmeralRafdan.Thegroupbelievesthe
airstrikewasconductedbytheU.S.ledcoalitionfightingtheIslamicStateintheregion.
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July 10
Turkey
Turkishpoliceoperationsinthreecitiesdetained21suspectedIslamicStaterecruiters,accordingtostaterun
media.InIstanbul,thepolicecounterterrorismunitraidtargetedseveraladdresses,includingoneonTemasa
StreetinGaziosmanpasadistrict.TheallegedIslamicStatemembersareaccusedofrecruitingforeign
fightersfromEurope,akeycomponentofthemilitantgroup'ssuccess.
July 9
Syria
Syrianarmytroopsadvancedtoabout5kilometers(3miles)ofthecentralSyriancityofPalmyra.The
governmenttroopsclashedwithIslamicStatemilitantstothewestofthecityand,accordingtotheSyrian
ObservatoryforHumanRights,couldsoonenterPalmyraitself.TheSyriangovernmenthasbeenconducting
increasinglyintenseairstrikesonthecity,whichtheIslamicStatecapturedMay21.
Elsewhere,seniorSyrianairforceofficialMaj.Gen.NadeemShallah,theheadoftheDamascusbranchinthe
SyrianDirectorateforAirForceIntelligence,wasreportedlyfoundshotinhiscarinDamascus.Government
officialshavenotyetofficiallyconfirmedthereportofhisdeath.Shallah'sbranchwasthelargestdivisionin
intelligenceservicefortheSyrianairforce.Hisdeathrepresentsoneofthemosthighprofileassassinationsto
dateinSyriasincethestartofthecivilwarin2011.
July 8
Syria
HezbollahandSyriangovernmentforcesadvancedfurtherintothenorthwesternpartofZabadani,a
strategicallyimportanttownneartheLebaneseborderthathasseenfiercefightingformuchofthepastweek,
anunnamedHezbollahsourcesaid.Atleast13SyrianrebelsandtwoHezbollahfighterswerekilled.In
responsetotheassaultonZabadani,rebelsincontrolofthespringthatprovidesmostofDamascusdrinking
waterhavethreatenedtoshutoffpipelinestothecapitaliftheoffensivecontinues.Meanwhile,Syriantroops
andalliedgunmenrepelledanoffensiveledbyjihadistrebelgroupJabhatalNusraonaneighborhoodin
Aleppo,activistsandstatemediasaid.Oppositionactivistsclaimedthemilitarycarriedoutachlorinegas
attackinanotherpartofthecity.
Turkey, United States

TurkishandU.S.officialscontinuedtalksonantiIslamicStatecooperationonJuly8,thoughneitherside
releasedastatement.ThetwosidesmetformorethaneighthoursonJuly7.TheU.S.delegationalsomet
withTurkishPrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluandForeignMinisterMevlutCavusoglu.Thetalksareoneofthe
strongestsignalsyetthatAnkaramaybereadytotakeonalargerregionalroleandcooperatemoreclosely
withtheUnitedStatesonopposingmilitantthreatssuchastheIslamicState.
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Jordan
JordanhasbegundeployingmilitaryreinforcementstoitsnorthernborderwithSyriaandtheeasternborder
withIraq.ThenewscomesasU.S.CongressvotedJuly7toallowWashingtontohandlearmstransfersto
JordanlikeitdoeswithNATOcountriesaswellastoincreasefinancialassistanceandmilitarycooperation
withJordantodealwiththethreatposedbytheIslamicState.
July 7
Syria, Turkey, United States
AhighlevelU.S.officialarrivedinAnkarafortalksaboutthefightagainsttheIslamicStateonJuly7.The
meetingcomesafterTurkeyreinforceditsborderagainstthemilitantgroupandU.S.PresidentBarackObama
vowedinanaddresstostepupthefightagainstthegroup.Thetalksareexpectedtofocusontheuseof
TurkishmilitarybasestolaunchU.S.airstrikesintoSyria.
GeopoliticalDiary:Turkey'sfutureplansforSyriabecameclearerTuesday,followingweeksof
speculationoverAnkara'sinvolvementinthecivilwarwagingalongitssouthernborder.On
Tuesday,theUnitedStatesandTurkeybegantalksinvolvingspecialU.S.presidential
representativeGen.JohnAllenandahostofU.S.andTurkishmilitaryandintelligenceofficials.
ThetwocountrieshavestruggledtoforgeacommonstrategyinresponsetotheSyrianconflict
andaburgeoningjihadistpresenceperhapsbestexemplifiedbytheIslamicState.TheUnited
StateshaslongwantedTurkeyaNATOmemberandarguablythemostcapablemilitary
powerintheregiontostepupitsroleagainstmilitants,muchtoAnkara'sconsternation.Read
thefullGeopoliticalDiaryhere:TurkeyConsidersaLargerRoleinSyria.
July 6
Syria, Turkey
MultipleoffensivescontinuethroughoutthefractiousSyriantheater.Rebelgroupsareheavilycommittedin
Aleppo,DaraaandaroundDamascusitself,whiletheIslamicStateremainshighlyactiveintheprovincesof
alHasakaandRaqaa.IslamicStatefightersarereportedtohaveseizedthetownofAinIssaandsurrounding
areasnorthofRaqaacityfromKurdishdefenderssupportedbyU.S.ledairstrikes.Elsewhere,theSyrian
army,assistedbyHezbollahfighters,movedagainstrebelfactionsinZabadani,thelastrebelheldtowninthe
QalamounregionneartheLebaneseborder.Thecity,whichonceservedasalogisticalhubforHezbollah,is
acriticalnodeinthelandsupplyroutesbetweenLebanonandSyriaaswellaskeyterrainforrebelsupply
lines.
Yet,themostsignificantdevelopmentsoverthepastweekfromageopoliticalperspectivehavetaken
placenorthoftheborder.AnumberofleakedreportshintingatapossibleTurkishmilitaryincursionintoSyria
haveignitedintensedebateandconjectureinpoliticalaswellasmediacircles.
Addingfueltothespeculation,overthelastfivedaysAnkarahastaken
measurestoensurethatTurkeyispreparedforanynumberofpossible
ReadStratfor'stakeonhow
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TurkeywouldinvadeSyria.
optionswhenitcomestotakingaction.ReportsindicatethatTurkeyhas
forwarddeployedelementsofthreecommandobrigades,anarmored
brigadeandamechanizedbrigadetotheAzazJarabulusborderarea.In
addition,theTurkishSecondArmymaintainssizableforcesincloseproximitytothebordertroopnumbers
thatcouldgreatlyenhanceandreinforceanyinitiallycommittedgroundforce.
Asanticipated,Ankara'ssecurityforceshavesignificantlyrampeduppolicingeffortsalongtheporousborder.
Additionally,domesticintelligenceandsecurityelementsareactivelytargetingvariousIslamicStatecells
knowntoexistwithinTurkey.Breakingdowntheseoperationalcellsiscrucialtopreventretaliatoryterrorist
attacksbytheIslamicStatemadeduringtheanticipatedbacklashagainstpossibleTurkishactioninSyria.
Withallthesecapabilitiesandmeasuresinplace,theTurkishmilitaryisnowinapositiontoexecute
numerousmissionsandtasks,rangingfrom(butnotlimitedto):lockingdowntheborder,engagingIslamic
StatepositionsinsideSyriawithartilleryandairstrikes,stagingraidsacrosstheborder,ortheestablishmentof
abufferzone30kilometers(19miles)deepand100kilometerswide.
However,interventioninSyriaisstillfarfromassured.TherulingJusticeandDevelopmentPartyandthe
militaryremaininheavydiscussionsoverthebestdirectiontotake.AsStratforpreviouslyhighlighted,the
constraintsandrisksofaTurkishinterventioninSyriahavenotdiminishedorabated,whichcomplicatesthe
decisiontocommittoanaggressivecourseofaction.
AlsoonJuly6,U.S.PresidentBarackObamamadealivetelevisedspeechfollowingameetingatthe
PentagonwithmilitaryleadersandadvisorstodiscussprogressagainsttheIslamicStateinIraqandSyria.
Thepresidentlargelyreiteratedcorepointsoftheadministration'sstrategy.HenotedthattheIslamicStateis
atastrategicdisadvantagebecauseofitsregionalisolation.HealsoemphasizedU.S.effortstotakeout
energyinfrastructure,targetfinancialflowsaswellastoprovidesupporttotheIraqigovernmentand
moderateSyrianoppositionfighters.ThepresidenturgedCongresstoconfirmtheappointmentofAdam
SzubinasundersecretaryoftheTreasuryDepartment.Thespeechalsohighlightedthecontinuedthreatof
lonewolfattackswithintheUnitedStatesandworldwide.
July 1
Syria
Nearly7,000KurdishpeshmergafighterscouldbesenttothecityofalHasakainnorthernSyriatofight
againsttheIslamicState,OmarOusi,aseniorIraqiKurdishlawmaker,saidJuly1.Theplanwillbeputtothe
IraqiKurdistanparliament,andimplementationwoulddependoncoordinationwiththeSyriangovernmentand
theKurdishPeoplesProtectionUnits.
June 30
Syria, Turkey
Analysis:NumerousbutunverifiedreportsintheTurkishmediasaytheTurkishmilitarywill
sooninterveneinSyria.Notably,highlevelofficialsincludingTurkishForeignMinisterMevlut
Cavusogluhavenotdeniedtheclaims,andTurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganhastaken
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toTwittertoemphasizethattheTurkswillnotallowterrororganizationstotakeadvantageofthe
chaoticenvironmentalongTurkey'sborders.However,theoperationdiscussedinthemedia,
especiallythepossibilityofagroundincursion,isunlikely.Still,itisworthhighlightingtherisks
thatwillconstrainTurkeyintheoffchanceitdecidestopursuesuchacourseofaction.Ready
thefullanalysis:HowTurkeyWouldInvadeSyria.
June 25
Syria
TheIslamicStatelaunchedtwoattacksinnorthernSyriaonJune25.Thefirstwasaraidonthebordertown
ofKobani,presentlyheldbyelementsoftheKurdishPeople'sProtectionUnits(YPG).Kobaniwasthefocusof
amajorIslamicStateoperationinOctober2014,whichgarneredmajormediaattentiondespiteitslackof
strategicimportance.ThesecondattackwasdirectedagainstthepartsofalHasakacitystilloccupiedby
forcesloyaltoSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad.ThemainstreammediahaslargelyfocusedontheKobani
attack,butthealHasakaoperationinthenortheastismoreimportantbyfar.
ThestrikeonKobaniwasessentiallyasuicideraiddesignedtoachievemaximumshockandpropaganda
value.AroundtwodozenIslamicStatefightersinfiltratedthetownbydressinginYPGandFreeSyrianArmy
uniforms.Onceinside,theyspreadoutandbegantheirattack,usingtheensuingchaostocreateasmany
casualtiesaspossible.Atleasttwosmallvehicleborneexplosivedeviceswereusedtoinitiatetheassault.
TheaimoftheattackwastohighlightthereachoftheIslamicState,withKobanibeingselectedbecauseofits
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highpropagandavalue.TheraidalsoservestotiedownYPGunitsintherear,divertingmanpowerfromthe
frontlinestoguardagainstsuchattacksinthefuture.Theprospectofhavingtosecuremajorurbanareasand
settingupcheckpointsalongtransitroutesisamajordifficultyfortheYPG,whichisalreadylowonavailable
manpower.
Incomparison,thealHasakaassaultisfarlargerinscaleandmoreambitious.AftertheIslamicState
succeededinassassinatingthechiefcommanderofloyalistforcesinalHasakacityonJune24,themilitants
followedupwithapremeditatedattackinvolvinghundredsoffighters.Theyswiftlypenetratedthetown's
defensesandseizedtwoneighborhoodsintheprocess.TheloyalistforcesinalHasakaarenowbeing
heavilyengagedastheyattempttorepeltheattack.ItisnotyetclearwhethertheYPGwillinterveneonthe
loyalistsidewhenitcomestodrivingtheIslamicStateback,orwhethertheywillholdtheirforcesin
anticipationoftheopportunitytoseizeloyalistheldterritoryforthemselvesaftertheIslamicStateupsets
Damascus'forcesinalHasaka.
June 22
Syria
WiththehelpoftheKurdishPeople'sProtectionUnits(YPG),FreeSyrianArmyforcescontinuetoadvance
towardRaqaa,theIslamicState'sdefactocapital.OnJune22,theFreeSyrianArmyannounceditscapture
ofthe93rdBrigadebasenearAinIssa,only55kilometers(about34miles)northofRaqaa.TheIslamicState
hasbeenreinforcingitspositionsinRaqaaandAleppoprovinceswithfightersfromotherfrontsinanattempt
tocounterrebeloffensivesinthearea,weakeningthegroup'sholdelsewhereinSyriaandallowingloyalist
forcestomakegainsaroundthecitiesofPalmyraandDeirelZour.
June 17
Syria
TheSouthernFrontrebelalliancepublicallyrefusedtoincludeJabhatalNusraaspartofitslatestoffensivein
Quneitragovernorate.TherebelgroupsaidthatitdoesnotshareJabhatalNusra'svisionforthefutureof
Syria.TheideologicalrifthighlightsnotonlytherelativestrengthofFreeSyrianArmyunitsinthesouth,but
thegrowinglinksthattheSouthernFrontnurtureswithoutsidebenefactors,areadysourceofbattlewinning
materielandfinance.TheSouthernFront,however,isunlikelytobepressuredintodirectlyfightingJabhatal
Nusra:TodosowoulddistractfromthefightagainstDamascus.Inaddition,anyopenhostilitiescouldresult
inrevengeattacksagainstotherFreeSyrianArmyaffiliatedunitsinnorthernSyria,whereJabhatalNusrais
morepowerful.
InQuneitra,theSouthernFrontcontinuestoadvanceonkeylocations,includingtheprovincialcapitalofNew
Quneitra(BaathCity).Thoughnotformallyintegratedintotheoffensive,JabhatalNusraestablisheditsown
operationsroomandhasparticipatedinthefightingmostlyaroundHadar,tothenorththoughithas
beenisolatedfromtheSouthernFront.SouthernFrontandJabhatalNusrahaveworkedtogetherinthepast,
butthatrelationshiphassoured.JabhatalNusraexperiencedanumberofsetbacksinthesouthinrecent
months,includingmajordefectionstootherbelligerentsintheregionthathavesappeditsavailable
manpower.
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June 16
Syria
KurdishPeople'sProtectionUnits(YPG)continuetomakesignificantgainsinnorthernSyria.Theynow
occupytheTurkishbordertownofTalAbyadafterIslamicStatemilitantswithdrew.ManyTalAbyadresidents
fledtoTurkey,fearingairstrikesorthereturnofIslamicStatefighters.TalAbyadisthenearestbordertownto
theIslamicStatestrongholdofRaqaa.Tothenortheast,theYPGarebattlingSyrianloyalistforcesin
Qamishli,witheachsideaccusingtheotherofprovocation.
Elsewhere,SouthernFrontrebelslaunchedanewoffensivetoclearoutforcesloyaltoSyrianPresident
BasharalAssadfromtheirremainingpositionsinQuneitraprovince,locatedatthesouthwestedgeofSyria.
JaishalFateh'soffensiveacrossthenorthernalGhabplaininHamaisencounteringtoughresistance,
reportedlybecauseloyalistforcesintheareaarereceivingreinforcementsfromexternalalliesofDamascus.
June 15
Syria
KurdishPeople'sProtectionUnit(YPG)fightersencircledtheIslamicStateheldtownofTalAbyadandseized
controlofthemainroadconnectingTalAbyadandRaqaa,theYPGmilitiasaidJune15.TalAbyadisthe
nearestbordertowntoRaqaa,anIslamicStatestronghold,andtheroadconnectingthetwocitiesisan
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importantsupplyroutethattheIslamicStateusestobringinforeignfighters.
Iraq
HundredsofpeopledisplacedfromTikritaftertheIslamicStateseizedthecityhavereturned,threemonths
afterprogovernmentforcesrecapturedit.ThecityhaslargelybeendesertedsinceShiitemilitiamenand
U.S.ledairstrikespushedthemilitantsfromthecityinApril.Accordingtoanunnamedofficial,thegovernment
charteredbusestotransportmorethan300familiesfromtentcitiesbacktoTikrit.
June 14
Syria
SyrianKurdishfightersareoutsideofTalAbyad,atownheldbytheIslamicStateontheTurkishborder,
KurdishofficialssaidJune14.AKurdishspokesmanalsosaidthatIslamicStatefightershavefledfromSuluk,
southwestofTalAbyad,andthatKurdishforcesnowholdthetown.TheadvanceonTalAbyadcouldallow
Kurdstocutoffavitalroutethatthemilitantgroupusestobringinnewforeignfighters.
June 13
Syria
KurdishPeoplesProtectionUnit(YPG)fightersbegantoadvancethroughSyriatowardtheIslamicStateheld
townofTalAbyadontheTurkishborder.KurdishYPGunitsearlierblockadedthenearbytownofSulukalso
heldbyIslamicState.TalAbyadisthenearestbordertowntotheIslamicStatestrongholdofRaqaa.
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June 12
Syria
TheSyrianarmydroverebelsfrompartsofanairbaseinSweidathattheinsurgentshadrecentlyseized.
AccordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights,therebelsbegantoretreatfrompartsofalThalaair
baseonJune10.
MembersofSyria'sDruzereligiousminorityaidedSyriangovernmentforcesinrecapturingthealThalaair
baseinthesouthfromtheFreeSyrianArmy.TheDruzehavetriedtoavoidcommittingtoeithersideinthe
conflict.ThishasbecomemorechallengingsincetheFreeSyrianArmy'sSouthernFrontlaunchedan
offensiveintheDruzedominatedprovinceofSwiedaandpartiallycapturedtheairbaseJune11.Some
membersoftheDruzecommunitymobilizedagainstantigovernmentforcesaftertheIslamistrebelgroup
JabhatalNusrakilled20DruzevillagersinnorthwesternSyriaonJune10.JabhatalNusraconsidersthe
DruzebranchofIslamtobeheretical.
GeopoliticalDiary:WithinthefirstyearoftheSyrianrebellion,anumberofintelligence
agenciesandmediaoutletssaidthegovernmentofSyrianPresidentBasharalAssadhadonly
monthstolive.Stratforsawitdifferently.Thebattlewasproceedingatarapidpace,andthings
definitelylookeddiceyforthegovernmentattimes,butweknewthiswouldbeaprotractedfight.
Foronething,theAlawites,whileanaturallyfractiouslot,werefacinganexistentialcrisisagainst
aSunnimajorityandwerenotgoingtocrumbleeasily.Foranother,thedivisionswithintherebel
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landscape(andamongtherebels'foreignsponsors)weresogreatthatbothsideslackedthe
meanstooverwhelmanddefeattheother.ReadthefullGeopoliticalDiary:Consideringa
PostAlAssadSyria.
June 11
Iraq
TheIslamicStateexecutedsome130retiredIraqisoldiersandformersecurityofficersinMosulduringa
weeklongpurgeofthosesuspectedofspyingonthegroup.InApril,thegroupkilledhundredsmoreformer
militaryandpoliceofficers,whohadservedunderIraqileaderSaddamHussein.Meanwhile,Iraq'shuman
rightsministerupdatedthebodycountofthoseexhumedfromsitesinnorthernIraqtonearly600.Some
reportssuggesttherecouldbeasmanyas1,700bodiesexhumedfromtheareawherepeopleweredumped
afterbeingmassacredbytheIslamicStateatCampSpeicher,nearTikrit.
Syria
AnAmericanthatjoinedKurdishforcestofighttheIslamicStatewaskilledinabattleinSyria,theU.S.State
DepartmentconfirmedJune11.Theman,KeithBroomfield,isbelievedtobethefirstU.S.citizentodie
alongsideKurdishtroopswhilefightingthemilitants.HewaskilledinQentere,nearthebordertownofKobani,
afterjoiningthePeople'sProtectionUnitsinFebruaryunderthenameGelhatRaman.Kurdishfighterssay
theywillhandoverBroomfield'sbodytohisfamilyinTurkey.
June 10
Iraq
U.S.PresidentBarackObamaauthorizedthedeploymentof450additionalmilitaryspecialiststoIraqtotrain
forcesinAnbarprovince.Therearecurrently3,000troopsstationedinIraqtotraintheIraqimilitary.The
UnitedStatesisalsoleadingairstrikesagainstIslamicStatemilitantsinIraqandSyria.Accordingtoreports,
thetroopswouldbebasedinAlHabbaniyah.
Syria
TheFreeSyrianArmy'sSouthernFronthasfinallylaunchedalonganticipatedoffensiveinsouthernSyria
followingmonthsofpreparation.Therebelforcesswiftlyoverrantheloyalist52ndMechanizedBrigadeon
June9andarenowheadedforalTh'alahairbaseinSweidaprovince.Thesuccessofthisoffensive
highlightsthedeterioratingpositionofPresidentBasharalAssad'sforces.ItalsobringsSyria'sminorityDruze
populationclosertothecenteroftheconflict.
Analysis:ThegovernmentinDamascuswasbroadlyawareofanimpendingassaultontheir
southernpositionsandhadbeenpreparingdefensesformonths.Thefactthatthe52nd
MechanizedBrigadecollapsedquicklydespiteadvancedplanningindicatesthedegreeto
whichtheSyrianmilitaryhasbeenweakened.Therebelsseizedconsiderableequipmentand
weaponryfromthebase,includingatleastsevenBMP1infantryfightingvehiclesandseveralT
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72tanks,aswellasweaponsandmunitions.Thisnewmaterielwillenablecontinuedrebel
attacksagainstthealAssadgovernment.Loyalistforceswillfindthemselvesinanincreasingly
difficultpositionastheyseektodefendagainstmultiplerebeloffensivesinthenorthandsouthin
additiontoIslamicStateattacksfromtheeast,acrossthedesert.Readthefullanalysis:In
SouthernSyria,aRebelOffensiveBegins.
June 9
Iraq
InMay,theIraqigovernmentsentaround500billiondinars($430million)tofundtheJunebudgetofthe
Kurdishautonomousregion,approximatelyhalfthenormalmonthlypayment,IraqiFinanceMinisterHoshyar
Zebarisaid.InDecember,BaghdadandArbilreachedadealoncontentiousoilexportsunderwhichthe
Kurdswouldsupply550,000barrelsperdayinexchangeforareturntobudgetpaymentsthatBaghdadcutin
2014.BaghdadhasaccusedArbiloffailingtosupplytheagreeduponamountofoil,whileArbilsaysBaghdad
hasnotpaidthe1.2trilliondinarspermonthpromised.
Elsewhere,threeIslamicStatemilitantsdressedinmilitaryuniformskilled
atleasteightpeopleandwoundedanother17inanattackona
governmentofficeinAmiriyatalFallujahinwesternIraq.Oneofthe
attackersblewhimselfupandtheremainingtwoarestillatlarge.Amiriyat
Readthefoundational
GeopoliticalWeekly:aNet
AssessmentoftheMiddle
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alFallujahislocatedonthewesternfringeofBaghdadandisoneofthe
fewareasinAnbarprovincestillundergovernmentcontrol.
East,byStratfor'sGeorge
Friedman.
June 8
Iraq
U.S.PresidentBarackObamasaidattheG7summitinGermanythathewasconfidentthattheIslamicState
wouldbedrivenoutofIraqanddefeated,buttherewouldbesetbacksalongtheway.Obamawentontosay
thatIslamicStatesuccessinRamadiwouldbeshortlivedandthattheUnitedStateswouldincreaseits
trainingandassistancerole.Atthesamesummit,IraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadicalledonthe
internationalcommunitytohelpcurtailIslamicStaterevenuefromoilsmuggling.
June 7
Iraq
IraqiforcesrecapturedBeijicityfromIslamicStatefighters,aspokesmanfortheIraqiDefenseMinistrysaid.
ThespokesmanalsosaidIraqiforcesclearedthecity'scenter,governmentcomplex,mainmosqueand
surroundingneighborhoods.ThespokesmancreditedtheUnitedStateswithsupportingIraqigroundforcesin
theassaultaswell,butdidnotprovidespecificsonwhatkindofU.S.supporttheyreceived.IslamicState
forcesfledbacktowardMosulandwereunderairattackwhileretreating.
Syria
SyrianloyalistforcesrepulsedamajorIslamicStateoffensiveinthenortheasterncityofalHasaka,theSyrian
armysaidJune7.Armyofficialsalsosaidgovernmenttroopshadretakenanelectricitystation,ajuvenile
prisonandtwovillagesheldbytheIslamicStateonthesouthernedgeofthecity.NortheasternSyria,which
linksareascontrolledbyIslamicStateinSyriaandIraq,isofstrategicimportancetothemilitantgroupasits
advancescontinuetoshapetheSyriancivilwar.
June 5
Iraq
AccordingtoIraniannewsagencyPressTV,aU.S.droneonitswaytoAnbarprovincecrashedinsouthern
Iraq.AnIraqisecurityofficialconfirmedthereportsthatsaidtheunmannedaerialvehiclecrashedbecauseof
atechnicalfailure.
Syria
IslamicStatesuicidebombersdetonatedexplosiveladentrucksatarmycheckpointsaroundalHasakamore
thanadozentimesoverthepastfivedays,thecity'sgovernorsaidJune4.Syrianforceshavemaintained
controlofthecity,thoughIslamicStatemilitantshavemovedwithin0.5kilometers(0.3miles)ofalHasaka's
southernentrance,accordingtoarepresentativefromtheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights.
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Analysis:AsurveyoftheSyrianbattlefieldquicklyrevealsthattheSyriangovernmentisunder
enormousstress.LoyalistforcesareclingingtotheAlawiteconcentratedcoastalregionandthe
coreofDamascusastheapproachestobothstrongholdsarelookingmoreprecarious.Inthe
north,therebelshaveallbuttakenIdlibprovinceandareincreasinglythreateningthe
government'sholdonAleppo.Inthecriticalcentralcorridor,therebelslooksettoadvanceon
thegovernmentheldHamafromthenorthwhilethelongisolatedrebelpocketnorthofHoms
hasbecomeincreasinglyactive.Furthermore,therebelsinDaraaandQuneitracontinuetopush
upfromthesouthtowardDamascus.Meanwhile,theIslamicStateisstagingpowerfulattacks
againstgovernmentforcestotheeastoftheHomsHamacorridorafterhavingconsolidatedits
gainsintheeasterndesert.Readthefullanalysis:OutsidePowersWeighTheirOptionsin
Syria.
June 3
Iraq
TheMinistryofNaturalResourcesinIraq'sKurdishregiondeniedreportsthatitceasedoilshipmentstothe
nationalgovernment'sStateOilMarketingOrganizationJune3.Earlierintheday,ReutersreportedthatArbil
wasnolongertransferringcrudetothestateownedcompany.TheKurdishregionalgovernmentconfirmed
thatitwasabidingbyitspreviousenergyagreementwithBaghdad,whichdictatesthatitexportanaverage
550,000barrelsperdaythroughBaghdad.Thesemiautonomousregionhasmademovestowardenergy
independenceinthepast,butthesharedoppositiontotheIslamicStatehasbroughtKurdsintocloser
cooperationwiththeIraqigovernment.
June 2
Iraq
AtameetingofMiddleEasternandWesternPowersinParisonJune2,IraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadi
willoutlineaplantorecapturethecityofRamadifromIslamicStatemilitants.TwentyministersfromIraq's
coalitionpartners,includingfromtheUnitedStates,Britain,France,SaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArab
Emirates,aremeetingtodiscussstrategiesforcounteringtheIslamicState.AlAbadihassaidIraq'sallies
needtoprovidemoresupportinthefightagainstmilitants,inparticulartopreventforeignfightersfrom
travelingtoIraqtojointheIslamicState.AtthemeetinginParis,hewillpresentaplantoretakeRamadi,
whichwillincludemobilizingmoreSunnitribalelementsinAnbarprovincewhileensuringthatShiitemilitias
answerprimarilytoBaghdadandnottoTehran.ThoughtheIraqigovernmenthasreliedonShiitemilitiasto
counterIslamicStatemilitants,theUnitedStateshasexpressedconcernthatthestrategycouldexacerbate
sectariantensionsintheheavilySunniAnbarprovince.
Syria
Analysis:Inadisplayofconsiderableflexibilityonthebattlefield,theIslamicStatemanagedto
takerebelforcesinnorthernAleppobysurprisewithalargescaleoffensiveaimedatsecuring
moreterritoryalongtheSyriaTurkeyborder.Afterdrawingdownitsforcesinthearea,the
IslamicState'ssuddentacticalshiftresultedinconsiderableinitialgainsagainsttherebels.
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IslamicStatefightersseizedSawranandareadvancingnearMare.Butthankstoreinforcements
fromAleppocityandotherprovinces,Syrianrebelforceshavealreadybeguntomountpowerful
counterattacksagainsttheIslamicState.Fornow,theoutcomeofthebattlehangsinthe
balanceasbothsidesmovetobolstertheirranks.Readthefullanalysis:HowIslamicState
VictoriesShapetheSyrianCivilWar.
June 1
Iraq
IslamicStatemilitantsattackedKurdishforcesonMay31inthetownofBashiqa,nearMosul,accordingtoa
peshmergacommander.Thepeshmergaforcesreportedlyrepelledtheoffensiveafteranhourandahalfof
fighting.NoKurdishfighterswerekilled,anditisunclearwhetheranyIslamicStatemilitantsdiedinthe
fighting.
May 28-29
Iraq
TheIslamicStateclaimedcreditMay29forthebombingsoftwofivestarhotelsinBaghdadonMay28.
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Accordingtoastatement,asuicidebomberparkedacarcarryingexplosivesoutsidetheIshtarHotel,then
droveanothercartotheBabylonHotel,detonatingtheexplosivesaroundthesametimetheothercar
exploded.Atleast15werekilledand42woundedintheattacks,whichcomeafterIraqigovernmentforces
lostcontrolofRamadi,amajorcity130kilometers(81miles)westofBaghdad,toIslamicStatemilitantsin
March.
Elsewhere,theremainsof470peoplebelievedtohavebeenexecutedbymilitantsnearTikritin2014have
beenexhumed,theIraqihealthministersaidMay28.TheIslamicStateisbelievedtohavekilledthevictims
lastyearinwhatisknownastheSpeichermassacre.
Syria
SyrianrebelsopposedtothegovernmentofPresidentBasharalAssadcapturedthetownofArihain
northwesternIdlibprovincethenightofMay28andfournearbyvillagesthefollowingday.Theadvances
comeafterthesamemilitantgroups,whichincludealQaedaaffiliateJabhatalNusraandanotherIslamist
group,AhraralSham,capturedtheprovincialcapitalfromSyriangovernmentforcesinMarch.Asrebelshave
capturedmoreterritoryinIdlib,theSyriangovernmenthaswithdrawntroopsfromtheprovincetofocuson
defendingLatakiaprovinceaswellasthecitiesofHomsandDamascus.TheSyrianarmyhasbeenstretched
thininitsfightagainstthevariousrebelfactionsandIslamicStatemilitantsmakinggainsincentralSyria.
May 26
Iraq
IraqannouncedthebeginningofamilitaryoperationMay26toretakeAnbarprovincefromIslamicState
militants.TheIslamicStateseizedtheprovincialcapital,Ramadi,lastweeknow,progovernmentforcesare
reportedlymassingwestofRamadiinpreparationforanoffensivetowinbackthecity.Accordingtoreports,
troopshavecuttheIslamicStatesupplylinessouthofthecapital.Meanwhile,anestimated13militantswere
killedwhengovernmentforcesbombardedtheirpositionineasternRamadi.
AlsoonMay26,IslamicStatesuicidebombersattackedIraqiforces
WritinginGlobalAffairs,
outsideFallujahandinthenearbytownofKarmah,killingatleast47
StratforcontributorIan
troops.Usingasandstormascover,militantssentthreesuicidecar
MorrisconsiderswhyIranian
bombsintotheIraqiarmy's1stDivisionheadquarters,fivekilometers(3
powerisnotinevitable.
miles)eastofFallujah,killing17soldiers.InKarmah,16kilometerstothe
northeast,fourmorecarbombskilledmorethan30membersofIraqi
securityforces.ThoughIslamicStatemilitantscontrolFallujah,Iraqiforceswereabletomaintaincontrolover
Karmahinclashesfollowingthebombings.ThesuicideattackscomeasIraqiforcesarebeginningan
offensivetorecaptureAnbarprovincefrommilitants,whocapturedAnbar'sregionalcapital,Ramadi,two
weeksago.
Syria
TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogansaidMay26thatTurkey,SaudiArabiaandQatarhadagreedonthe
necessitytoenforceanoflyzoneinSyriadespitealackofcommitmentfromtheUnitedStates.Althoughthe
UnitedStatesandTurkeyrecentlybeganajointoperationtotrainandequipSyrianoppositionfighters,
ErdogansaidthatRepublicansandDemocratsintheU.S.Congresswereunabletoagreeonthe
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implementationofasafezoneandnoflyzoneinnorthernSyria.Erdoganwentontosaythat,asafellow
NATOally,theUnitedStateshadanobligationtoassistTurkeyinSyria.TurkeyandSaudiArabiaannounced
anallianceMay7toprovidelogisticalandfinancialsupporttoSyrianoppositionfighters.
May 24
Syria
IslamicStatefightersexecutedatleast400peopleinPalmyrasincecapturingtheSyriancityonMay20,
SyrianstatemediasaidMay24.Theaccountwasnotimmediatelyverifiable,thoughtheSyrianObservatory
forHumanRightssaidthatsomepeoplewerebeheadedbuthasnotgivenanestimateforthedeathtoll
amongcivilians.ThecaptureofPalmyra,alongwiththerecentcaptureofRamadiinwesternIraq,showsthat
theIslamicStatestillposesathreattoDamascusandBaghdad.
May 22
Iraq
TheIraqigovernmentanditsallieswilllaunchamissiontoretakethecityofRamadifromIslamicState
militants,aPopularMobilizationForcerepresentativesaidMay22.ThePopularMobilizationForce,a
groupingofprimarilyShiitemilitias,iscurrentlyfocusedonobtainingmoremodernweaponryandsaysthatits
forceswillthenattempttostoptheIslamicStateadvance.
May 21
Iraq
GovernmentforcesandalliedmilitiasrecapturedthewesternpartofBeiji,Salahuddinprovince,fromIslamic
Statemilitantsandfreed300soldierswhohadbeentrappedintheBeijirefinery,thesecretarygeneralofthe
ShiiteLeagueoftheRighteousmilitiasaid.
IraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadiandRussianPrimeMinisterDmitriMedvedevagreedontheneedto
expandmilitary,economicanddiplomaticcooperationbetweenRussiaandIraq.Inparticular,alAbadi
emphasizedadesireforRussiaandIraqtosharemilitarytechnology,cooperatetocombatterrorismand
worktogetherintheoilandnaturalgassector.AlAbadiisattendingaseriesoftalksinMoscowandwillmeet
withRussianPresidentVladimirPutinlaterintheday.
Syria
TheIslamicStatecontrolsmorethanhalfofSyria'sterritorynowthatithasseizedPalmyra,anactivistgroup
said.ThecaptureofthecityMay20wasthefirsttimethemilitantgroupwasabletoseizesuchadensely
populatedareafromSyrianprogovernmentforces.MostoftheareatheIslamicStatecontrolsinSyriais
sparselypopulated.TheinternationalcommunityhasbeenparticularlyconcernedaboutthefallofPalmyra
becauseoftheancientruinslocatedthere.AccordingtoBBC,militantshaveenteredtheancientpartofthe
city,whichisdesignatedaUNESCOworldheritagesite,butnodamagehasbeenreportedyet.
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AshellexplodedataSyrianarmycheckpointneartheRussianEmbassyinDamascus,leavinganunknown
numberofSyriantroopsdeadorwounded,anembassyspokeswomansaid.Noembassyworkerswere
injured.TheRussianEmbassywaslasttargetedbymortarsMay19.
Cross-Border
IslamicStatemilitantsseizedalTanf,thelastIraqSyriabordercrossingheldbyforcesloyaltoPresident
BasharalAssad.TheIslamicStatenowcontrolstheentireborderexceptforasmallnorthernsectionheldby
Kurdishmilitias.ThealTanfseizurefollowstheMay20IslamicStatecaptureofPalmyra,Syria.Despite
recentgains,theIslamicStatewillstruggletomaintainitsoffensiveontwofrontssimultaneously.
May 20
Iraq
IraqiforceshavefoughtbackanovernightattackbyIslamicStatefighterseastofmilitantcontrolledRamadi.
ThemilitantsattackedgovernmenttroopsinHusaibaalSharquiya,locatedbetweenRamadiandtheAl
Habbaniyahmilitarybase,whereShiitemilitiashavegathered.TheIslamicStateistryingtoconsolidateits
controloverAnbarprovince.
Syria
IslamicStatemilitantstookoverthenorthernsectionofPalmyraonafteraweeklongpushtowardthecentral
Syriancity.Jihadistsseizedastatesecuritybuildingbeforespreadingthroughnorthernneighborhoodsthat
theyhadpreviouslyovertakenMay16andhadheldforlessthan24hours.IfIslamicStatefightersmaketheir
waytothesouthwesternpartofthecity,localsworrytheywilldestroyPalmyra'sancientruins,whichare
designatedasaUNESCOworldheritagesite.Despiterecentgains,however,theIslamicStatehasbeen
stretchedthinbyitsattemptstoadvanceinbothSyriaandIraq.
Analysis:Inthepastweek,theIslamicStateseizedtheancientcityofPalmyrafromSyrian
PresidentBasharalAssad'sforces.Thecity'scaptureaddstothemanydefeatsDamascushas
sufferedoverthepastsixmonths,compoundingitsproblemsasitfacesthreatsonmultiple
fronts.
TheIslamicState'svictoryinPalmyraisnotablefortworeasons.First,ithascompletelyisolated
loyalistforcesinDeirelZourprovince,includingthe137thMechanizedBrigadeandtheelite
104thRepublicanBrigade.Thoughtheseunitscouldstillreceivesuppliesbyair,theSyrianair
forceisheavilycommittedtootherareasoftheconflict.Itwouldbenearlyimpossibleforthe
governmenttoadequatelysustaintheencircledforcesoverthelongterm.Second,Palmyra's
locationacriticalcrossroadsinthecenterofSyriagivestheIslamicStateastrategicbase
fromwhichitcanlaunchattacksonkeylocationsinthesurroundingarea.Becauseloyalist
forcesholdnearlyalloftheimportanttargetsinPalmyra'svicinity,theIslamicState'snew
advantagedoesnotbodewellforalAssad'soverstretchedforces.Readthefullanalysis:The
CaptureofPalmyra:ABigWinfortheIslamicState.
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May 19
Syria
TwomortarroundslandedonthepremisesoftheRussianEmbassyinDamascusonMay19,causing
damagebutnoinjuries,anembassyspokeswomansaid.Onemortarfellnearthemainentrance,andthe
otherhitanadministrativebuilding.AsimilarattacktargetedtheembassyinJanuary.
Iraq
AnewIslamicStatepropagandavideoconfirmsthegroup'scontroloverRamadiandclaimsmilitantswillnext
targetthecitiesofBaghdadandKarbala.Thevideo,called"IslamicStateControlsRamadi,"showsmilitants
celebratingintheprovincialcapitalaftercapturingitMay17.However,Iraqitroopsandalliedtribalelements,
bolsteredbynewlyarrivedShiitemilitias,havecontainedtheIslamicState'sadvanceandareattemptingto
surroundthecityinpreparationforacounterattack.
May 18
Syria
TheIslamicStatetookfullcontrolofthealHailandArakgasfieldsMay18,located40and25kilometers(25
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and15miles)respectivelynortheastofPalmyra.Thetwogasfieldswereavitalsourceofenergyforthe
territoriescontrolledbySyrianPresidentBasharalAssad.TheIslamicStatehasbeenfightinginandaround
theancientcityofPalmyrasinceMay13atonepointthegroupcontrolledamajorityofthecity'snorthbefore
beingpushedoutbygovernmentforces.Approximately364peoplehavebeenkilledinPalmyra,including62
civilians,accordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights.
Iraq
ShiitemilitiamengatheredMay18attheAlHabbaniyahmilitarybase,locatedapproximately30kilometers(19
miles)fromRamadi,inpreparationforacounteroffensiveagainsttheIslamicState.TheIslamicStateseized
Ramadi,thelargestcityinAnbarProvince,onMay17,inwhatisconsideredoneofthemostsignificantlosses
fortheIraqigovernmentsincethefallofMosullastsummer.TheU.S.ledcoalitionconducted19airstrikes
over72hoursinandaroundRamadibutwasunabletostoptheIslamicStatefromseizingthecity.Reports
nowsuggestthattheIslamicStateisadvancingontheAlHabbaniyamilitarybaseinordertostopShiite
militiasfromconductingacounteroffensive.
May 17
Iraq
Baghdad Considers Shiite Option

After Ramadi's Fall
IslamicStatemilitantsclaimedfullcontrolofRamadi,the
provincialcapitalofAnbarprovince,westernIraq,the
militantgroupsaidinastatement.Thestatementcomes
afterPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadiauthorizeda
deploymentofShiitemilitiastotakebackthearea.Islamic
Statemilitantspreviousdrovesecurityforcesfromthe
AnbarOperationsCommandinwesternIraqonthesame
day,Iraqitroopssaid.ItisthebiggestgainforIslamic
StateinIraqsincesecurityforcesandShiitemilitiasbegan
pushingthegroupbackincitieslikeTikrit.
Syria
LoyalistforcesregainedcontrolofPalmyraonMay17afterIslamicStatemilitantsseizedthenorthernpartof
thetownMay16,aSyrianofficialsaid.Gov.TalalBaraziofHomsprovincealsosaidSyriantroopsrecaptured
twohillsfromthemilitantsandthatarmyreinforcementshavebeensent.Syrianoppositionactivistsconfirmed
thatIslamicStatefighterswithdrewfromagovernmentbuildingtheyhadtakeninthenorthernpartofthe
town,thoughfightingbetweenthetwosidescontinued.
May 16
Syria
AmidongoingclashesMay16,IslamicStatefighterspushedforcesloyaltoPresidentBasharalAssadoutof
muchofthenorthernpartofPalmyra,Syria,accordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights.The
IslamicStateoffensiveonthecitybeganMay13.InanotherblowtoDamascus,Turkishmilitaryjetsengaged
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andbroughtdownaSyrianaircraftMay16afteritenteredTurkeysairspacewithoutauthorization.The
identityandtypeoftheSyrianaircraftarebothstillunclear.
ElsewhereinSyria,aU.S.SpecialForcesoperationinalAmr,SyriaorderedbyPresidentBarackObamahas
killedAbuSayyaf,anIslamicStatecommanderinchargeofoilandnaturalgassales,DefenseSecretary
AshtonCartersaidMay16.U.S.troopscapturedAbuSayyafswife,UmmSayyaf,anddetainedherinIraq.
ThisisthefirstspecialoperationsraidinsideofSyriasincethe2014failedattempttofreeIslamicState
hostages.
May 15
Syria
FightersfromtheSyrianarmyandHezbollahgainedfullcontrolofthestrategicJabalalBarouhmountain
rangeonMay14.TheterritoryoverlooksanimportanthighwaythatrunsalongtheLebaneseborderand
connectsDamascustoHoms.InaseparateincidentMay14,HezbollahandtheSyrianarmydefeateda
contingentofJabhatalNusrafightersinwestQalamoun.ThevictoryisthemostsignificantwinforSyrian
PresidentBasharalAssadsincefightingbrokeoutinQalamounonMay3.
Iraq
IslamicStatemilitantscapturedthegovernmentcomplexincentralRamadiafterlaunchinganovernight
offensiveonthecityMay15.Militantscapturedthegovernmentbuildingsfollowingintensefightingthroughout
Ramadi,duringwhichsixsuicidecarbombsweredetonatedandatleast50Iraqimilitarypersonnelwere
killed.Coalitionforceshaverespondedbylaunchingairstrikesinthearea.
Soonafter,IslamicStatemilitantscapturedthetownofJubahatownnorthwestofRamadiwhere
hundredsofU.S.advisorsarestationed.EarlierMay15,theIslamicStatesecuredterritoryeastofFallujah,
killing200Iraqisoldiersandcapturingatleast59others,AlQudsAlArabireported.Recentreportsindicate
militantsarecontinuingtheirwestwardpush,attackingaresidentialareainBaghdadiandbeseiging700
families.
May 14
Syria
FightingbetweentheIslamicStateandSyriantroopsthreatenstheancientSyriancityofPalmyra,aUNESCO
worldheritagesite,theSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightssaid.Accordingtoreports,thefightingisabout2
kilometers(slightlymorethanamile)fromthesite.Thereportscomeasaninternationalconferenceisheldin
CairoaddressingthedestructionoftheNimrudandHatrahistoricalsitesinIraqbytheIslamicState.
Middle East, United States

GeopoliticalDiary:U.S.PresidentBarackObama'sCampDavidretreatforSunniGulfleaders
willnotberememberedforthediplomaticsnubs,defensedealsoreventhenuclearproliferation
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7/31/2015
threats.Itwillberememberedasthemostvividillustrationofachangingbalanceofpowerinthe
MiddleEastafterthreeandahalfdecadesofacrimoniousU.S.Iranrelations
ThelastmajorshiftintheU.S.relationship
withthePersianGulfstatestookplaceinthe
1970s,inthethickoftheColdWar.The34
yearolddeputycrownprince,Mohammed
binSalman,andthe55yearoldcrown
prince,MohammedbinNayef,maybetoo
youngtofullyunderstandwhattheirroyal
eldersstruggledwithintryingtoensurethat
theglobalhegemonwouldnotsacrificethe
HouseofSaudtoitsPersianallies.Afterall,
Conversation: U.S. Attempts to
anentiregenerationhasonlyknownaworld
inwhichU.S.supportforSaudiArabiaand
Reassure Arab Countries at Camp
hostilitytowardIranwereagiven.Butthe
David
mandateofKingSalman'ssuccessorsat
CampDavidwasclear:topreventhistory
fromrepeatingitself.ReadthefullGeopoliticalDiary:CampDavidandtheU.S.Powerof
ChoiceintheMiddleEast.
May 13
Syria
Afteraconflictthatkilledsome48soldiersandmilitantsandwoundedatleast100othersMay12,theIslamic
StatecapturedthestrategictownofAlSukhnah,locatedinSyria'sHomsprovince,accordingtoanactivist
group.ThetownislocatednearthehighwaythatleadsfromIslamicStatestrongholdDeirelZourprovinceto
theregimecontrolledancienttownofPalmyra.DeirelZourislocatedinthedesertregioneastofHomsandis
apartoftheIslamicState'sselfdescribedcaliphateinSyriaandIraq.
HezbollahfightersandSyrianforcesgainedcontrolonMay13ofTalitMoussa,thehighestpeakinthe
Qalamounregion.ThestrategicpositionwillhelptheSyrianarmyanditsalliestomonitorrebelmovements
anddefendthelargeswathesofterritoryitgainedinrecentadvances.Regimeforcestookcontrolofatleast
ninerebelpositionsMay13,thelatestinaseriesofgainsoverthepastweek,aspartofbroaderoffensive
againstrebelmilitantsthatbeganinMay.
Iraq
AccordingtoIraqiDefenseMinistrySpokesmanBrig.Gen.TahsinIbrahim,IslamicStatesecondincommand
AbdulRahmanMustafaMohammad,knownasAbuAlaaalAfri,waskilledalongwithdozensofmilitantsinan
airstrikeonaTalAfarmosque.UnconfirmedreportsinrecentweekshaveallegedthatalAfrihadtaken
commandofthegroupaftertheinjuryofleaderAbuBakralBaghdadi.
Analysis:TheIraqigovernmentpreviouslyreportedthatIslamicStateleaderAbuBakral
BaghdadiwaswoundedinaMarch18airstrikeinNinevah'salBaajdistrictandthatalAfarihad
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assumedoperationalcontrolofthegroup.TheUnitedStateshasdeniedthatreport.However,
eveniftheworstcasescenariofortheIslamicStateistrue,withalBaghdadiseriouslywounded
andalAfarikilled,itisunlikelytohaveanysignificantandimmediateimpactonthebattlefieldin
IraqandSyria.
IfalBaghdadiwaswoundedandincapacitatedinMarch,theIslamicState'soperationshave
shownnosignsofit.Theorganizationislargeandhighlyinstitutionalized,containingsufficient
redundanciesandpracticingextensivedivisionoflabor.Ithasalsopreparedfordecapitation
strikesandhasweatheredtheminthepast.Forexample,inthemonthsfollowingtheJune2006
airstrikethatkilledAbuMusabalZarqawi,therewasactuallyanincreaseintheattackstargeting
coalitiontroopsinsteadofadecrease.ThegroupalsosurvivedanApril2010airstrikethatkilled
itstwotopleaders,AbuOmaralBaghdadiandAbuAyyubalMasri.EvensincetheUnited
StatesanditspartnersbeganairstrikesagainsttheIslamicStateinSeptember2014,severalof
thegroup'sregionalemirshavebeenkilledbutwerequicklyreplaced.Moreover,alAfariisa
cleric,notamilitaryleader,andthemenplanningandconductingthegroup'smilitaryoperations
arestilllargelyintact.Readthefullanalysis:CouldtheIslamicStateSurviveLosingIts
Leaders?
May 12
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Syria
Iraq
TheIraqigovernmentreprehendedHungaryinastatementreleasedMay12forallegedlysupportingKurdish
independence,Rudawreported.ThestatementfollowedajointpressconferenceheldbyHungarianPrime
MinisterViktorOrbanandKurdistanRegionalGovernmentPresidentMassoudBarzani,duringwhichOrban
saidHungarysupportsnationsstrivingforindependence.TheIraqigovernmentcalledthestatements
interferenceandaskedthatcountriesrespectIraq'ssovereignty.
May 11
U.S., Russia
U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrywilltraveltoSochionMay11tomeetwithRussianPresidentVladimir
Putin,ForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovandotherRussianofficials,theU.S.StateDepartmentsaidina
statement.Kerryisexpectedtodiscussbilateralandregionalsecurityissues,includingtheconflicts
inUkraineandSyriaandnuclearnegotiationswithIran.AftervisitingRussia,KerrywilltraveltoTurkeyto
attendaNATOmeeting,beforejoiningU.S.PresidentBarackObamainWashingtontomeetwithGulf
CooperationCouncilleaders.
Iraq
Iraqisecurityforces,ShiitemilitiasandPeshmergafightersrepelledtwoIslamicStateattacksagainsttheAjeel
andBeijioilfieldsonMay10and11.IraqispecialoperationsforcesandShiitemilitiamenreportedlykilled73
IslamicStatefightersattheAjeeloilfield,locatedtotheeastofTikrit.InBeiji,Iraqisecurityforcesand
Peshmergafighterskilled40IslamicStatefightersanddestroyedsixvehicleswhilealsogainingcontrolover
twostrategictownstothesouthoftheoilfield.
May 10
Iraq
FightingbetweenIraqisecurityforcesandIslamicStatemilitantsinFallujahonMay10killedatleast20
peopleandwoundedatleast19,securitysourcessaid.Duringthebattle,threesuicidebombersblewuptheir
explosiveladenvehicles,leavingatleast10securitymemberskilledandeightotherswounded.Meanwhile,
U.S.ledcoalitionwarplanesprovidedairsupportatthebattlefieldnearFallujah,killingatleastsevenIslamic
Statemilitantsandwounding11others.Theintensefightingcomesassecurityforcesandtheiralliescontinue
tobattlethemilitantgroupacrossIraq.
May 7
Syria
KhaledKhoja,presidentoftheNationalCoalitionforSyrianRevolutionandOppositionForces,askedthe
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UnitedStatesonMay7toprovideairsupportsothatrebelsoldierscouldestablishasafezoneand
transitionalgovernmentwithinSyria.TherequestcameaftertheWashingtonPostreportedthatregional
powers,SaudiArabiaandTurkey,hadconfirmedthattheywouldcoordinatetheireffortstosupportrebelunits
anddefeatSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad.Rebelgroups,includingtheIslamicStateandJabhatalNusra,
haverecentlymadegainsinwesternSyriaandontheoutskirtsofDamascus,threateningalAssad'sholdon
power.However,HurriyetDailyNewsalsoreportedthatTurkey'sEnergyMinister,TanerYildiz,said
thatTurkeyhasnoplansforimmediatemilitaryinterventioninSyria.
GeopoliticalDiary:WhilethewarinYemenremainsinconclusive,SaudiArabiaisescalatingits
interventioninSyria.UnliketheYemenitheater,wheretheSaudisarethelargestmilitaryforce,
theSyrianbattlegroundwillbemorecomplexforRiyadh.TheSaudiswillbepartneringwith
Turkey,andRiyadhandAnkaraarenotincompleteagreement.Iran'ssupportfortheSyrian
governmentwillalsocomplicatematters,aswillU.S.nervousnessaboutjihadistsfillingany
vacuumleftinDamascusifthegovernmentfalls.Moreover,theU.S.ledcoalitionoperations
againsttheIslamicStateinSyriawillnotmakethesituationsimpler.
Nevertheless,SaudiArabiaandTurkeyhavereportedlyagreedonadealtogreatlyenhance
supportforrebelsfightingSyrianPresidentBasharalAssad'sgovernmentforces.Separately,
AFPreportedthatSyrianoppositionforceshadsaidtheSaudikingdomwantstounitemostof
Syria'srebelfactionsandisorganizingagatheringinmidJunetothisend.Meanwhile,Turkish
andQatariforeignministersaremeetingtodiscussSyriaandotherregionalissues.Readthe
fullGeopoliticalDiary:InTurkey,SaudiArabiaFindsanUnlikelyPartnerAgainstSyria.
May 6
Syria
SyrianPresidentBasharalAssadsaidMay6thathewassendingreinforcementstoJisralShughour.Jabhat
alNusraandotherrebelgroupscapturedthetownonApril24,butsomegovernmentsoldiersremaininthe
city.JisralShughourisstrategicallysignificantand,ifcompletelycapturedbyrebels,wouldfacilitate
offensivesintoalAssad'scoastalstrongholds.
AlsoonMay6,IslamicStatefightersattackedabaseinthenortheasternSyrianprovinceofalHasaka,killing
atleast16membersofSyrianKurdishsecurityforces.AccordingtotheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRights,
themilitantsdetonatedabombusingacarandthenopenedfireonabuildinghousingKurdishsecurity
forces.
AnewbookbyXavierPanonallegesthatFrenchPresidentFrancoisHollandeadmittedinaprivateinterview
toprovidingSyrianrebelswithweaponsin2012,despiteanembargobeinginplace.Accordingtothebook,
Francedeliveredcannons,machineguns,rocketlaunchersandantitankmissilestotherebelsopposing
SyrianPresidentBasharalAssad.TheEuropeanembargoonweaponswasinplacefromJune2011toMay
2013.Beforenow,Francehadonlyadmittedtoprovidingrebelswithnonlethalaid.
May 4
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7/31/2015
Syria
ThousandsofIslamistmilitantsledbyJabhatalNusraforcesattackedSyrianarmyandHezbollahpositions
alongtheLebaneseborderMay4.Militantsfiredrockets,surfacetosurfacemissilesandmortarshellson
troopsneartheSyriantownsofKfeir,Zabadani,SerghayaandHreira,inflictingheavylosses.Theattacks
cameafterSyrianandalliedforcesadvancedintostrategicallyimportantsectionsofthewesternQalamoun
mountainrange.Syrianforceshavedestroyedmilitants'vehiclesandheldtheirpositions,butclashesare
ongoing.Hezbollah'smilitaryparticipationhasbeenintegraltotheSyrianarmy'sadvancesoverthecourseof
theconflict.
AlsoonMay4,mortarroundsfiredfromSyrialandedintheGolanHeights,injuringapairofU.N.
peacekeepers.Thetwosoldiers'woundswereminorandtheyweretakentoIsraelformedicalcare.The
IsraeliarmysaidthemortarshellswerestrayfirefromtheconflictinSyria.Competingrebelgroupshavebeen
clashingneartheceasefirelinealongtheIsraelioccupiedGolanHeightsforthepastweek.
May 2
Turkey, Syria
AU.S.ledinitiativewithTurkeytotrainandequipaforceof15,000SyrianrebelswillbeginMay9,Turkish
ForeignMinisterMevlutCavusoglusaidMay.Around120U.S.soldiersarrivedatTurkey'sIncirlikairbase
May1.Ofthesetroops,40willtravelonwardtotheHirfanlimilitarytrainingcenterinKirshrprovince.
Iraq
IraqiforceseastofIslamicStatecontrolledGarma,Anbarprovincekilled17militantsMay2,accordingto
anonymoussources.AlsoonMay2suicidebombernearGarmakilled12Iraqitroopsatamilitarybase.Iraqi
forcestookcontrolofthealTheilahdistrictofAnbar'scapital,Ramadi,fromIslamicStatemilitants.
May 1
Iraq
Iraq'scrudeoilexportsforthemonthofAprilwerethehighesttheyhavebeensincethe1980stheIraqiOil
MinistryannouncedMay1.Atotalof92.3millionbarrelswereexportedduringthemonth,amountingto
approximately$4.8billioninrevenue.Anestimated2millionbarrelsperdaywereexportedatpricesthat
reached$51.70perbarrel.
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EDITOR'S CHOICE
Cuba's Problems Beyond the Embargo
After the Nuclear Deal, a Region Recalibrates
Dokdo Island: A Case Study in Asia's Maritime Disputes
Analytical Guidance: Turkey Intensifies Its Role in Syria
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What Saudi Arabia and Turkey Want in the Syria Conflict
Saudi Arabia Overhauls Its Strategy for Syria
Airstrikes in Syria Will Weaken, Not Destroy Militants
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U.S Turkish Collaboration Off To A Shaky Start

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U.S.-Turkish Collaboration Off to a Shaky Start

United States, Turkey, Syria

United States, Turkey

Turkey, United States

Iraq, United States

Turkey, United States

Baghdad Considers Shiite Option

Middle East, United States

Cuba's Problems Beyond the Embargo

After the Nuclear Deal, a Region Recalibrates

Dokdo Island: A Case Study in Asia's Maritime Disputes

Analytical Guidance: Turkey Intensifies Its Role in Syria

What Saudi Arabia and Turkey Want in the Syria Conflict

Saudi Arabia Overhauls Its Strategy for Syria

Airstrikes in Syria Will Weaken, Not Destroy Militants

RELATED SITUATION REPORTS

Saudi Arabia: U.S. Secretary Of State Visits To Discuss Syria

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