Module 5 Climate

Change Adaptation

Topics

Global Policy Response

Interest Groups
UNFCCC Groups
UNFCCC Parameters
UNFCCC Overview
The Kyoto Protocol
Kyoto Mechanisms
Questions and Flaws in the Response
Other Roads
Equity Considerations
Toward a Global Regime
Equity Issues

Climate Change Effects

Temperature variations,
Especially at higher latitudes
More frequent extreme weather events
Shifts in climate zones
Sea level rise
Uncertainty as to all of the above
Social and biological processes
Even more uncertainty here

Global Policy Response

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
The Kyoto Protocol
Joint Implementation
Clean Development Mechanism
Emissions Trading
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Climate Change Interest Groups

EU
Umbrella Group (Australia, Canada, Iceland, Japan,
New Zealand, Norway, Russia, the Ukraine, U.S.)
Economies in Transition
G77 (plus China)
Oil Producers
Users of Fossil Fuels, especially those that would have
difficulty switching

UNFCCC Groups
Annex I: Developed Countries (including those with
Economies in Transition)
Essentially OECD
Take Lead in Climate Change Mitigation
Annex II: Developed Countries (excluding Economies
in Transition)
Provide additional financial resources
Technology Transfer
Non-Annex I Countries

Emissions of CO2 (in Mt) from Fuel Combustion

(Statement by Michael Zammit Cutajar, www.pewclimate.org/events/cutajar.cfm)
Total CO2 emissions
(Mt)

CO2 Emissions
per capita
(t/inhabitant)

1990

1998

90-98%

1998

World

21,290

22,726

6.7%

3.9

Non-Annex I Parties

6,826

8,622

26.3%

1.9

Annex I Parties

13,826

13,383

-3.2%

11.0

Annex II Parties

9,957

10,972

10.2%

12.0

Economies in
Transition

3,868

2,592

-33.0%

8.2

Top 20 countries (1998 emissions) plus EU

(Statement by Michael Zammit Cutajar, www.pewclimate.org/events/cutajar.cfm)
Total CO2 emissions (Mt)
USA
China (+ Hong Kong)
Russian Federation
Japan
India
Germany
United Kingdom
Canada
Italy
France
Republic of Korea
Ukraine
Mexico
South Africa
Poland
Australia
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Spain
European Union

CO2 t emissions per capita

1990

1998

90-98%

1998

4,844
2,389
2,308
1,048
595
967
572
421
402
369
232
675
297
291
348
259
201
160
197
212
3152

5,410
2,893
1,416
1,128
908
857
550
477
426
376
370
359
356
354
320
311
296
271
260
254
3171

11.7%
21.1%
-38.7%
7.6%
52.7%
-11.4%
-4.0%
13.3%
6.1%
1.9%
59.4%
-46.8%
20.0%
21.5%
-8.1%
20.1%
47.2%
68.8%
31.9%
20.1%
0.6%

20.1
2.3
9.6
8.9
0.9
10.4
9.3
15.8
7.5
6.4
8.0
7.1
3.7
8.5
8.3
16.6
1.8
13.1
4.2
6.5
8.5

UNFCCC Overview
In 1992, countries joined an international treaty, the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to
cooperatively consider what they could do to limit average
global temperature increases and the resulting climate
change, and to cope with whatever impacts were, by then,
inevitable.

By 1995, countries realized that emission reductions

provisions in the Convention were inadequate. They
launched negotiations to strengthen the global response
to climate change, and, two years later, adopted the
Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol legally binds
developed countries to emission reduction targets. The
Protocols first commitment period started in 2008 and
ended in 2012. The second commitment period began on
1 January 2013 and will end in 2020.

UNFCCC Overview
There are now 195 Parties to the Convention and 192
Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The UNFCCC
secretariat supports all institutions involved in the
international climate change negotiations, particularly
the Conference of the Parties (COP), the Conference
of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties
(CMP), the subsidiary bodies (which advise the
COP/CMP), and the COP/CMP Bureau (which deals
mainly with procedural and organizational issues
arising from the COP/CMP and also has technical
functions).

UNFCCC Objectives
Stabilization of GHGs at level that would prevent
dangerous impacts to climate system
Time-frame that will allow ecosystems to adapt
Food production not threatened
Economic development to proceed

Article 3.1 of UNFCCC

The Parties should protect the climate system for the
benefit of present and future generations of
humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance
with their common but differentiated responsibilities
and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the
developed country Parties should take the lead in
combating climate change and the adverse effects
thereof.

UNFCC Principles

Intergenerational equity
Intragenerational equity
Common but differentiated responsibilities
Article 3.1 of UNFCC
RIO Principle 7, In view of the different contributions to
global environmental degradation, States have common
but differentiated responsibilities.
Precautionary Principle
The Right to Sustainable Development

Intragenerational Equity (1)

Address inequities within existing economic system
RIO Principle 5 cooperate to eradicate poverty in order
to decrease the disparities in standards of living and better
meet the needs of the majority of the people of the world.

Intragenerational Equity (2)

Recognize special needs of developing countries

Financial assistance
Capacity-building
Technology Transfer
Conditionality of responsibilities on FA, CB, and TT
Common but differentiated responsibilities
Developed countries take the lead in combating climate change and its
effects
Fair and Equitable Sharing of the Benefits
CBD (genetic resources)
Fisheries (allocation)
LOS, Article 194(1)
States shall prevent, reduce and control marine pollution using the
best practicable means at their disposal and in accordance with their
capabilities

UNFCCC Institutions

COP
Subsidiary body for science & technological advice
Subsidiary body for implementation
Secretariat
Financial Mechanism
GEF (including capacity building; adaptation; technology
transfer; climate change mitigation; economic
diversification)
Other Related Institutions
IPCC: independent body founded by UNEP and WHO

Kyoto Protocol
Legally binding and specific emission reduction for
UNFCCC Annex I parties
Developed Countries (including those with Economies
in Transition)
These commitments are set out in Annex B.
No new commitments for Non-Annex I
Developing countries emissions will exceed
developed countries in 5-30 years

Kyoto Mechanisms (1)

Emission reductions
Removals by Sinks
Can bank reductions for subsequent commitment periods
Joint Implementation (JI)
Annex I countries can in engage in joint projects and share
the emission reductions
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Annex I parties can undertake projects in Non-Annex I
countries and obtain emission reduction credits
Emission Trading
Annex I countries can by and sell emission reduction units
on an international market

Kyoto Mechanisms (2)

No set limits on use of JI, CDM and Trading, BUT
In reports, a State must demonstrate that use is
supplemental to domestic action
Joint fulfillment
Any group of Annex I countries can enter into an
agreement to reallocate their commitments
Unlike CDM. JI, Trading, not subject to further rules.

Joint Implementation (Article 6)

The Kyoto Protocol establishes a mechanism
whereby a developed country can receive
emissions reductions units or carbon credits
when it helps to finance projects that reduce net
emissions in another developed country.
If a biomass burning power station is being built
in a developed country, another develop country
can help finance it and claim the same
percentage of carbon credits for their own total

Clean Development Mechanism

(Article 12)
The purpose of the Clean Development Mechanism is to
assist Annex 2, developing countries, in achieving
sustainable development, and in contributing to the
ultimate objective of the Convention, while assisting
Parties included in Annex I, developed countries, in
achieving compliance with their emission targets agreed
to under Kyoto.
In other words, if a developed country does not have the
laws, regulations etc to finance and build GHG reducing
technology in their own country, go to the developing
world do it there and claim the credits for themselves.

Emissions Trading (Article 17)

Emissions trading is a mechanism whereby (Annex I)
Parties with emissions commitments may trade their
emission allowances with other (Annex I) Parties. The aim
is to improve to overall flexibility and economic efficiency
of making emissions cuts.
Other countries that can easily meet their target, can sell
their excess credits to countries that can not meet their
own targets by their own means

Big Questions Facing

Policymakers
By how much should GHGs be reduced and in what
timeframe?
What is the best set of actions to undertake?
What institutions, administrative processes and
mechanisms should be established to carry out specified
actions?
How to allocate the burden of reductions

Other Roads
In light of lack of commitments by developing
countries, in retrospect, should developed countries
have pursued a develop-country only agreement?
Montreal Protocol Model
US-China Agreement
Phase out low-volume GHGs (HFCs, PFCs, and SF6)
Consider GHG reduction in concert with sustainability
and biodiversity

Why Equity Considerations

Impacts
Imbalance between who contributed to climate change
and who feels impact
Imbalance between who benefits from climate change
and who suffers
Adaptation
Differences in ability to adapt to climate change
Mitigation
Implications of Kyoto measures that can be used to
mitigate
Procedural fairness

Where Equity Considerations

Allocation
Which Countries should reduce emissions and by how much
Costs
Which Countries should pay for reduction/adaptation and
how much?
Procedure/Process
How do we go about answering above questions?

Toward A Global Regime?

Thresholds for required participation?

Responsibility
a. Total country emissions
b. Per capita emissions
Capacity
a. Per capita welfare

Toward A Global Regime? (2)

Single Criteria
Multiple Criteria
Multi-stage, Graduated Approach
No quantitative commitments
Intensity Targets
Emission Stabilization
Reductions

Equity-related Issues (1)

What relevance, if any, is it that developed countries
emissions may have occurred in ignorance of the
effects?
Equitable to allow Economies in Transition emissions
based on 1990 emissions, emissions that presently do
not exist?
3. What relevance that developing countries
emissions will soon exceed developed?

Equity-related Issues (2)

What of developing countries refusal to even discuss
possible future commitments or to condition such
commitments to developed countries reaching targets in
light of uneven impacts and capacities to respond?
Relative merits of GHC Intensity (emissions per
economic output versus) emissions per capita?

Equity-related Issues (3)

Is eventually capping and converging country emissions at
an equal emissions per capita rate fair? That is, are
windfalls for some countries justified (e.g., Brazil, with
abundant hydropower?)
Should governments loosen patent and other protections
that would otherwise accrue to firms that have developed
GHG reducing technologies?
Fairness of CDM which only provides credits to developed
countries?

Conclusion

Climate change is happening

Effective management needs to happen now
Substantial Policy response has occurred
More effective policy response needs to be developed
A hybrid multi-faceted response is essential
The difficulty will be trying to convince politics that
make decisions only on short time scales
But we must not fall into the trap of growing more to
make more

Optional Reading
Lomborg, The Sceptical Environmentalist, 1998,
Chapter 24, 258 322,
McKibbin and Wilcoxin, Climate Change Policy After
Kyoto, 2002, Chapter 4, 51 60
Dresner, The Principles of Sustainability, Chapter 4, 38
- 59.

Websites to look at

Global Warming: Early Warning Signs,

http://www.climatehotmap.org/
Australian greenhouse Office http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change - http://unfccc.int/2860.php
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change http://www.ipcc.ch/
Pew Climate Centre - http://www.pewclimate.org/