Beruflich Dokumente
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Planning for
Climate Change in the West
Central to the mission of Western Lands and Communities is planning for climate change.
This policy focus report began as a Lincoln Institute Working Paper by Rebecca Carter (2008)
titled “Land Use Planning and the Changing Climate of the West.” The paper highlights how local
planners could implement land use–related practices and policies to take action against climate
change impacts in their communities. Building on that research, this report offers tools and case
studies, identifies barriers to local policy decisions, and provides recommendations for over-
coming these obstacles to change.
ISBN 978-1-55844-203-0
Policy Focus Report/Code PF024
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Contents
2 Executive Summary
48 Appendix
53 References
54 Resources
56 Acknowledgments
57 About the Authors
57 About the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, the Sonoran Institute,
and Western Lands and Communities
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Executive Summary
Rural
sprawl
in Teton
County,
Idaho
P
rimarily arid landscapes link the wildfires, and other disruptions to natural
Intermountain West, which includes processes and wildlife habitat are projected
all or a portion of 11 states west by researchers. The rate of these disruptive
of the Rocky Mountains—Arizona, effects will dictate whether communities
Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New try to reduce or mitigate the impacts by de-
Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, and parts of Cali- creasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,
fornia, Oregon, and Washington. This or adapt after the fact by handling climate
seemingly boundless region has been shaped change impacts as best they can.
since its European settlement by dramatic This report underscores the critical role
fluctuations in its water and energy resources, of local planners in the Intermountain West
land use patterns, economy, and a climate in confronting challenges posed by climate
known for its extremes. Recent trends in all change and acting in concert with federal,
of these forces, fueled by rapid growth and regional, and state efforts to implement mitiga-
change, must be altered if the Intermountain tion and adaptation policies. Federal policies
West is to achieve sustainability. most often take the form of mandates that
Climate change impacts, now recognized govern state and local policy or funding sup-
globally by scientists, are expected to wreak port that enables local planning. Regional
particular havoc on this region. Most signifi- efforts generally have responded to the threat
cant are forecasts that the hydrology of the of climate change with cap-and-trade initia-
Intermountain West will become even drier. tives for controlling GHG emissions. The
Drought, heat waves, diminished mountain Intermountain West, however, has lagged
snowpack, earlier snowmelt, catastrophic behind other regions in pursuing aggressive
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Chapter 1
The Climate Context
of the Intermountain West
Denver, Colorado
A
multitude of factors have shaped ing economic engines of the desert South-
the current landscape of the Inter- west and the Central Rockies have spawned
mountain West, a vast, arid region five megaregional urban centers linked through
encompassing all or a portion of transportation, infrastructure, and economic
11 states west of the Rocky Mountains. The development. Each one is anticipated to
economy, population growth, land develop- reach nearly 10 million residents by 2050.
ment patterns, availability and use of water and In the face of this rapid growth and change,
energy resources, and climate of this region achieving sustainability in the region will
are all in the throes of considerable change. involve altering existing trends in develop-
The scenic beauty, wide open spaces, ment patterns, resource use, and land con-
abundant wildlife, mild climate, and recre- sumption. Planners and citizens have a key
ational opportunities of the Intermountain role to play in this process.
West have inspired a new kind of “gold
rush” fueling dramatic growth, demograph- C h a n g i n g C li m ate P atter n s
ic changes, and more diversified economies. The climate of the Intermountain West is
Communities have seen populations boom characterized by extremes: from the mild
and traditional resource extraction activities winters, intense summer heat, and low pre-
diminish. The desirable climates and grow- cipitation of the desert Southwest, to the cool
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will become more commonplace, and will pronounced, causing 10° to 11º F average
increase in frequency as a consequence of nighttime temperature increases during
the combination of higher temperatures, the hottest parts of summer.
altered precipitation patterns, and earlier Coupling this increase with higher sur-
spring snowmelt—all of which are expected face temperatures could render many areas
to become more prevalent under changing within the region immensely uncomfortable,
climate conditions. if not dangerous, without aggressive air-
Changes in snowpack are also likely to conditioning usage and consequent increases
have a variety of negative impacts. Overall, in energy consumption. As is often the case,
less precipitation is anticipated to fall as snow the risks associated with higher temperatures
in mountainous areas; it will fall as rain in- would be borne primarily by the most dis-
stead, reducing the amount of seasonal stor- advantaged populations, including the ill,
age for surface water systems. This would the elderly, and low-income residents.
lead to longer periods when streams are dry,
with serious consequences for wildlife, natu- Catastrophic Wildfire
ral habitats, and water supplies. The timing Wildfire in the arid western states prior
of peak snowmelt is also projected to occur to European settlement had been a natural
earlier in the season, leading to more severe and beneficial phenomenon for many eco-
spring flooding events combined with reduced systems. Many western forest environments
flows later in the year. depend on a periodic fire regime to clear out
The forecasted changes in the hydrology the brushy understory, create disturbance
of the Intermountain West would also im- for new growth, and facilitate reproduction
pact municipal water supplies and cause of some species. However, the dominant
stress to riparian ecosystems and other wild- twentieth-century management regime in-
life habitats dependent on the region’s rare volved aggressive fire suppression, particu-
and precious waterways and to dry forested larly as development pushed further into
areas, thus playing a role in the increase of forested areas, generating public pressure
catastrophic wildfires in the region (box 1). for fire protection.
As a result, large fuel loads have built up
Extreme Weather Events in many forest ecosystems in the Intermoun-
Due to a hotter, drier climate, the Inter- tain West, and have been further exacerbated
mountain West will likely see an uptick in by the spread of nonnative, invasive grass
extreme weather events. Climate models species prone to frequent fire. Fire seasons
show that an increased amount of rain and have also been extended in duration due to
snow will come in the form of severe storms warmer, earlier springs leading to increased
exceeding current flood control systems, with drying periods for vegetation. This situation
more frequent and intense flood events, even has already led to a dramatic increase in
while overall precipitation may decrease. large-scale wildfires in the region in recent
Heat waves are also likely to become decades.
more common. IPCC reports show potential Combining these effects with climate im-
surface temperature increases from climate pacts that range from more severe drought
change ranging from 35º F to 40º F. In some and temperature increases to the expan-
parts of the Intermountain West, particularly sion of pests and pathogens, the risks of
the Phoenix and Las Vegas metropolitan catastrophic wildfire will continue to rise.
areas, the urban heat island effect is already Changing climate conditions may also
increase the likelihood that invasive grasses conditions will cause severe disruption to
will spread further into the region’s deserts, ecosystem processes, wildlife, and the habitats
again intensifying fire risks. on which they depend. These changes have
tremendous implications for natural resource
Disruption of Natural Systems managers, especially in the Intermountain
Scientists and climate experts foresee that West where public lands make up the vast
the combined impact of altered climate majority of land ownership. They also would
Box 1
Climate Change Implications for the Colorado River Basin
major droughts and high water flows in the Colorado River Colorado
R
o
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affect communities whose economies depend cance, such as the iconic saguaro cactus of
upon the scenic, recreational, and other the Sonoran Desert, and the Joshua tree of
amenity qualities of those public lands. the Mojave Desert. This process becomes a
Competition with invasive species, par- self-reinforcing cycle, where invasive grasses
ticularly in areas that did not evolve to be are given the advantage over native species
wildfire resistant, could lead to the loss of under altered fire regimes.
some species of regional and cultural signifi- In alpine regions, temperature increases
Box 2
Ecological Repercussions from the Loss of Whitebark Pines
leading to the spread of the mountain pine implemented, others may be dramatic and Southern tip of
beetle into forest systems at high elevations, sudden, limiting the ability of communities to Lake Mead, Arizona–
where the cold once kept them at bay, has adapt. In some cases, entire landscapes may Nevada border
C a r t e r a n d C u l p ● P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m at e C h a n g e i n t h e W e s t 9
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Chapter 2
Coping with Climate Change
TriMet MAX
Light Rail,
Portland,
Oregon
F
or much of the past decade, the are vehicle fuel efficiency standards (corpo-
federal government was not per- rate average fuel economy or CAFE stan-
ceived as a source of substantive dards), a carbon tax or national-level CO2
action on climate change, but some cap-and-trade market system, research fund-
state, regional, and local efforts have begun ing for development of renewable energy
to address this issue. The Obama adminis- technologies, and incentives to reduce emis-
tration is now placing greater emphasis on sions from the transportation sector through
climate change mitigation and adaptation, strategic use of federal transportation autho-
but responding to these challenges is an “all rization dollars (box 3).
hands on deck” enterprise. Understanding Other strategies scaled to state and local
policy responses from governments at all policy making can benefit from national
levels can be helpful in highlighting oppor- policy efforts, including renewable energy
tunities and guiding policy on climate portfolio standards and building code stan-
change for local communities. dards. Federal policy can motivate local
action in two primary ways: creation of
T h e F ederal R esp o n se mandates governing state and local policy,
Some policy strategies to address climate and funding that supports particular policies
change are naturally most appropriate for and activities at the local level. The federal
action on the national level. Among them role is currently focused on funding as a
The challenge for local governments will for example, one ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Those
be capturing these dollars to support both firms that can reduce their emissions through implementation of
mitigation and adaptation activities (table 1). low-emitting technologies or processes can then sell their emissions
Most of the attention paid to climate change credits to those that cannot afford higher emissions control costs.
thus far has been focused on mitigation— Over time, the number of allowances available on the market can
actions intended to reduce future greenhouse be ratcheted downward to achieve an overall carbon reduction goal.
gas emissions and lessen the long-term im- Cap-and-trade was used successfully in the Northeast to control sulphur
pacts of climate change. However, climate dioxide pollution, and represents a promising strategy to achieve
change is already occurring because humans greenhouse gas reduction targets in a flexible, efficient, and cost-
have altered the composition of the atmo- effective manner (Pew Center on Global Climate Change 2009a).
Table 1
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
Mitigation Adaptation
Green building technologies for municipal, industrial, commercial, and residential structures X X
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for decades or centuries. Therefore, in addi- percent fossil fuels in electricity generation)
tion to continuing mitigation actions, human are the principal target of RGGI, the overall
societies must adapt to the negative effects impact of the program on land use planning
of changes that are already taking place. or transportation infrastructure decision
Mitigation and adaptation are two sides making has been largely minimal. Plans
of the same coin, not mutually exclusive are underway among the member states to
strategies. Many of the land use–related cli- explore ways to expand policies aimed at
mate change mitigation policies now being improving energy efficiency and increasing
established will also help states, counties, the portion of electric power coming from
and communities adapt to climate change. low-carbon sources, but these efforts are
not expected to trickle down to the local
R e g i o n al R esp o n ses government level.
Given the delay in federal climate policy
action over the past decade, many states Western Climate Initiative
and regions began pursuing their own strat- The WCI program was begun in 2007 by
egies to fill the void in federal leadership. the governors of Arizona, California, New
Cap-and-trade systems, as one of the more Mexico, Oregon, and Washington. Other
politically palatable and potentially effective western states and some Canadian provinces
mechanisms for controlling greenhouse gas joined the effort later (figure 2). An addition-
emissions, have been the mode of choice for al 14 jurisdictions are participating as “ob-
these regional efforts. Two current initiatives servers,” including several Mexican states
designed to create a regional cap-and-trade bordering the United States (Pew Center
market for carbon emissions are the Region- on Global Climate Change 2009c).
al Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and WCI set its regional greenhouse gas
the Western Climate Initiative (WCI). reduction target to 15 percent below 2005
levels by 2020, and established a broad
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative scope encompassing CO2 and five additional
With 10 member states in the Northeast and greenhouse gases. It has also taken a multi-
Mid-Atlantic region, the RGGI is the nation’s sector approach to emissions reductions,
first mandatory cap-and-trade system of applying the cap to the electricity genera-
its kind. Initiated in 2005 by the governors tion sector, as well as to large-scale indus-
of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New trial and commercial combustion processes.
Hampshire, New Jersey, New York and Ver- In 2012 the program will expand to in-
mont, the RGGI created a cap on carbon clude transportation, residential, commer-
dioxide emissions from electricity providers cial, and industrial fuel use. According to
and a system of allowances that could be WCI design recommendations, these sectors
sold or traded among CO2 emitters in the are included with the expectation that part-
program. Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and ner jurisdictions will accomplish reductions
Maryland have since joined the RGGI pro- by implementing a variety of policies, some
gram, under which carbon emissions are cap- of which would have an impact on local
ped at current levels in 2009 and reduced to land use planning, such as smart growth
10 percent below current levels by 2019 (Pew strategies and promotion of transit options.
Center on Global Climate Change 2009b). This link between a regional greenhouse
Since power plants of a certain size (at gas reduction goal and local planning is no-
least 25 megawatts and burning at least 50 table, even though how it will be implemented
Manitoba
GDP: 48,586 Million C$
Population: 1,186,700
Largest City: Winnipeg Ontario
GDP: 582,019 Million C$
Population: 12,803,900
Largest City: Toronto
Quebec
GDP: 298,157 Million C$
Population: 7,700,800
British Columbia Largest City: Montreal
GDP: 190,214 Million C$
Population: 4,380,300
Largest City: Vancouver
Washington
GDP: 311,270 Million US$
Population: 6,468,424
Largest City: Seattle
Montana
Oregon GDP: 34,253 Million US$
GDP: 158,233 Million US$ Population: 957,861
Population: 3,747,455 Largest City: Billings
Largest City: Portland
Utah
California GDP: 105,658 Million US$
GDP: 1,812,968 Million US$ Population: 2,645,330
Population: 36,553,215 Largest City: Salt Lake City
Largest City: Los Angeles
New Mexico
GDP: 76,178 Million US$
Arizona Population: 1,969,915
GDP: 247,028 Million US$ Largest City: Albuquerque
Population: 6,338,755
Largest City: Phoenix
WCI OBSERVERS
Observers
CANADA: Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan
UNITED STATES: Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nevada, Wyoming Partners
MEXICO: Baja California, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Sonora, Tamaulipas
C a r t e r a n d C u l p ● P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m at e C h a n g e i n t h e W e s t 13
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figure 3
Scales of Existing Tools
in the West,” California has moved into climate change by fostering leadership ac-
the forefront of integrating considerations tion toward solutions, enabling deliberative
about greenhouse gas emissions into local democracy on policy and governance choic-
land use planning (Richards 2009). es, and providing advanced technical assis-
The Center for Climate Strategies (CCS), tance for stakeholders and policy makers”
based in Washington, DC, began working (Center for Climate Strategies 2009). As
with western states to create action plans of August 2009, 10 western states completed
through facilitated stakeholder processes. state-level climate action plans (figure 3),
The mission of CCS is to “help states, and many of them were completed with
regions, and national governments tackle the assistance of CCS.
figure 3
Completed Climate Action Plans in Ten Western States
CANADA
Washington
Montana
Washington Climate
Montana Climate
Action Team (CAT) Final
Change Advisory
Recommendations,
Committee
November 2008
Washington Montana Final Report,
November 2007
Oregon
Oregon Global Utah
Warming Commis- Utah Blue
Oregon Ribbon Advisory
sion Report to
the Legislature, Council on
Idaho Climate Change
January 2009 Wyoming Final Climate
Change Report
Nevada to Governor John
Nevada Climate Change Huntsman, Jr.,
Advisory Committee October 3, 2007
Final Report, July 29, Nevada
2008
Utah Colorado Colorado
Colorado Blue
California Ribbon Climate
California Climate Action Panel
Action Team (CAT) California Final Report,
Draft 2009 Climate November 2007
Action Team Biennial
Report to the Governor
and Legislature, New Mexico
April 1, 2009 New Mexico
Arizona New Mexico
Pacific Climate Change
Ocean Advisory Group
Climate Change
Action Plan,
December 2006
Alaska
Joint Alaska
Climate Impact Arizona
Assessment Alaska Arizona Climate
Commission MEXICO Action Initiative
Final Report, Climate Change
March 17, 2008 Action Plan,
August 2006
Through the CCS process, state climate tation strategies to improve community resil-
action plans are developed over the course ience to anticipated temperature and climate
of a year by a team that works with a group changes given current carbon loads in the
of 20 to 50 stakeholders to identify, design, atmosphere. Colorado is an exception to this
and analyze emissions mitigation policies. because its plan includes specific adaptation
These stakeholders represent state, county, measures for agriculture, water resources, and
and city government officials, water and forestry. Carbon load refers to the amount
power utilities, nonprofit organizations, of CO2 currently in the atmosphere. Prior to
school districts, businesses, industries such the industrial revolution, the carbon load of
as agriculture and mining, academic insti- the atmosphere was approximately 280 parts
tutions, and concerned citizens. per million (ppm), compared to current
These state plans represent a range of levels of around 382 ppm (US EPA 2009).
existing political perspectives, and embody Even without articulating an explicit
widespread support for the data and policies adaptation strategy, many actions within
contained within them. In the eight state the state plans have value for climate change
plans examined for this report, 90 percent adaptation. Moreover, they provide a host
or more of all recommendations were ap- of co-benefits, such as alleviating traffic con-
proved unanimously due to the collaborative gestion, preserving open space and natural
processes that provided extended opportuni- habitats, and creating healthier, walkable,
ties for the identification and resolution of and more livable communities. That is not
potential conflicts. to say that communities ought to ignore the
State climate action plans contain inven- importance of adaptation strategies as they
tories of current and potential greenhouse seek to manage the impacts of climate
gas emissions from various sectors and out- change, only that many mitigation strategies
line potential strategies for climate change can have significant adaptive value as well.
mitigation. These plans also serve as a re- The policy prescriptions in state climate
pository for information about policy solu- action plans are frequently categorized by
tions that could be implemented at the local sector: energy supply, residential and com-
government scale. mercial, transportation and land use, and
Many of the state climate action plans agriculture and forestry. Land use–related
include estimates for the effectiveness of policies do not fit neatly in a single category,
various greenhouse gas emissions reduction but rather have considerable overlap with
strategies, including their comparative costs. transportation, open space and agricultural
Some of these strategies and policies are protection, and residential development. As
fully quantified, including estimates for a result, the transportation and land use sec-
greenhouse gas reduction potential and cost- tions of many state climate action plans may
effectiveness. This information allows plan- contain provisions that are only tangentially
ners and other local decision makers to eval- related to planning, such as increases in ve-
uate a range of policies and select a mix of hicle fuel efficiency. For this analysis, research
locally appropriate, cost-effective strategies on land use strategies to address climate
that best fit the needs and circumstances change was not limited to the transporta-
of their jurisdictions. tion and land use sector recommendations.
The majority of the first-generation state State climate action plans offer several
climate action plans focus on reducing advantages to planners seeking to integrate
greenhouse gas emissions rather than adap- climate change information into their work.
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S u m m ary
Local government units in the Intermoun- sive planning policies designed to reorient
tain West have an essential role to play in a development and growth into a less carbon
coordinated national, state, multistate, and intensive pattern, especially outside of
substate regional effort to plan for and im- urban centers. Local governments need to
plement climate mitigation and adaptation develop their own climate action plans and
policies. Even though the importance of work with neighboring communities on
local planning action is widely understood, relevant regional issues like transportation
the region has been slow to adopt aggres- and water planning.
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chapter 3
The Role of Planning in
Response to Climate Change
all aspects of a community’s planning
responsibilities and management.
A broad realm of challenges confront
planners in the changing Intermountain
West, from high demand for building per-
mits in rapidly growing areas to rural issues
of declining populations and tax bases. The
degree of concern about climate change
also varies widely, from robust support for
immediate action to a marked reluctance
to prioritize or even acknowledge the issue.
If climate change mitigation and adapta-
tion policies are to be successful in reducing
carbon emissions and making the region
more resilient to the inevitable changes in
climate conditions, they must be implemented
at the local level. A key question remains:
What is the role of local government in cre-
ating more climate resilient communities?
The state climate action plans for west-
ern states typically contain 30 to 60 quanti-
fied policy options for reducing greenhouse
gas emissions. Of these, approximately a
dozen relate to land use planning and local
government action, typically accounting
for about one-fifth of total greenhouse gas
reductions. It is clear that the participation
of local government is essential to meeting
climate policy goals.
P
Regardless of their roles or the size of
Roosevelt Square mixed- lanners in the western United their communities, planners will influence
use development in States work in a wide range of potential actions that can help mitigate and
Phoenix, Arizona
capacities. In urban settings and adapt to climate change. These strategies may
some well-resourced amenity com- include encouraging green building and
munities, planning professionals may be other energy-efficient features of municipal,
specialists on issues ranging from urban industrial, commercial, and residential build-
development and infill to sustainability and ings, and guiding urban form to reduce
conservation planning. In smaller, more vehicle miles traveled, such as through
rural, or less wealthy communities, planners walkable and transit-oriented community
may serve as members of a limited staff, or design featuring mixed-use, high-density
even act as “lone rangers” responsible for development.
Table 2
Summary of Climate Action Policies in Five Western States
Arizona California Montana New Mexico Washington
Total number of climate action policies 35 39 48 64 58
Total potential GHG emissions (mmtCO2e) 645 139 125 323 105
avoided if policies are implemented*
Total planning-related policies 11 8 10 19 13
Percentage of total GHG reductions possible 19.9% 18.3% 10.2% 17.5% 24.7%
from planning-related policies
* mmtCO2e = million metric tons of CO2 equivalent.
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figure 4
Average Cost-Effectiveness of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions from
Land Use–Related Policies in Western State Climate Action Plans
Urban forestry
“Beyond Direct
Code” Reduce Barriers Forestland
to Renewables Renewable Protection
Bldg Design Energy Water Use and
60 & Smart and Clean from
Distributed Support Wastewater Developed
Growth Management
Programs Generation Uses
40
Bldg Support
Standards for Local
& Codes Farming/
20 for Smart Buy Local
Growth
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100 Cost per mmtCO2e Saved Land-related Cost per mmtCO2e Saved
-120
Location and site layout are a part of plans studied (Appendix, Table A1). They
green building as well, and may have impli- range from standard building codes already
cations for broader land use planning and in place to those specifically designated
management in communities. These practices as related to smart growth or “beyond”
involve reducing summer heat gain and win- or “reach” codes. Depending on the state,
ter heat loss through appropriate building they may apply to state buildings only, or
orientation, profile, and window placement. to a broader range of structures that can
Green building practices include locating include businesses and residences (box 5).
and designing buildings to reduce vulnera- Several state policies also include provisions
bility to natural events such as flooding and for solar hot water and electrical generation.
wildfires. Since these phenomena are pro- Such policies are popular because they
jected to increase in frequency and intensity can make significant contributions to reduc-
with climate change, green building becomes ing greenhouse gas emissions, while also
an attractive adaptation policy. saving money for residents and local govern-
Building materials are another component ments. The California Solar Initiative, which
in meeting green building standards. “Cool seeks to put solar cells on one million resi-
roofs” that use light-colored coatings and dential rooftops in the state, is the only
materials to increase heat reflection and green building policy among those in the
reduce absorption are encouraged, as are seven states studied that has not proven cost-
green roofs, porous paving materials, and effective. The program, as implemented by
“cool pavement,” which employs light- the California Public Utilities Commission,
colored sidewalks, parking lots, and roads. has been estimated to cost $3 billion per
Green building policies appear in seven year for consumer rebates over its 10-year
of the eight western state climate action lifespan. At this cost, each kilowatt-hour of
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View of Superstition
Mountains from the
Superstition Vistas
state trust land
parcel in Arizona
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The Utah Transit The transportation sector typically makes standards, and speed limits. However, plan-
Authority’s FrontRunner
up 25 to 35 percent of the greenhouse gas ners can influence the implementation of
Provo to Salt Lake City
high-capacity commuter
emissions of western states (US EPA 2006). transportation and land use policies such
rail line will be com- Some transportation issues are outside the as those that seek to reduce vehicle miles
pleted by 2015. scope of land use planning, such as vehicle traveled by promoting more compact,
fuel efficiency standards, reduction of vehi- mixed-use communities better served by
cle idling, pay-as-you-drive insurance, fuel public transportation and other alternative
transportation options.
Box 7 Urban form also has a direct bearing on
Four Planning Strategies to Reduce Energy Consumption the number of vehicle miles residents must
travel in the course of their day-to-day lives.
L and use planning affects the ability of people to make good
choices in order to reduce their carbon footprint. Well-designed
places can be part of the solution to climate change by allowing
Transportation now accounts for a full one-
third of CO2 emissions in the United States,
and that share continues to grow as other
green living to be the easy choice.
sectors decline in overall emissions (Ewing
1. Minimize the need for travel. If people have to travel shorter et al. 2008). Despite advances in vehicle fuel
distances between their homes and work, shopping, services, and economy, the amount of CO2 attributable
recreation, then less fossil fuel will be burned in the process. to driving is expected to increase 59 percent
2. Maximize transportation alternatives to the single-occupant,
between 2005 and 2030 if current trends
conventionally fueled vehicle. If people can travel by foot, bike,
continue, despite only a 23 percent increase
or public transit, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from
in population (Energy Information Admin-
conventional automobiles will be minimized. Land use planning can
istration 2006).
have a significant influence on whether people travel by alternate
Land use and transportation policies
modes of transportation by making it easy to use them.
are specified in all eight western state-level
climate action plans described in this report
3. Minimize energy needs for heating, cooling, electricity, water, (Appendix, Table A2). In the state plans
wastewater, food production, and disposal of trash and food waste. of Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico
Energy is used to power a wide variety of systems that people de- (box 8), transportation policies are combined
pend upon. The first step is to minimize energy consumption in with land use and economic development
these systems through energy efficiency measures. provisions, making it difficult to evaluate
4. Maximize alternatives to conventional (carbon-based) energy specific aspects of the smart growth “bundle
sources. Solar, wind, geothermal, and other renewable sources of of tools.” However, in all states that quantify
energy can displace the need for conventional energy sources. Land the likely costs of CO2 reduction through
use planning can be a barrier to the effective use of these resources implementation of smart growth strategies,
but can also be adapted to encourage more effective use of renew- the policies either incur no additional costs
able sources. or provide cost savings. It should be noted,
however, that infrastructure costs associated
Energy Sources
Energy use is at the heart of climate change
mitigation efforts, and therefore, the major-
ity of climate change policies addressed in
the state climate action plans deal with this
sector (Appendix, Table A3). Only a few
Traditional low-density development exacerbates dependence on automobile
strategies connected to energy policy are travel and contributes to GHG emissions.
directly relevant to planning, but implemen-
tation of such policies may require changes energy. CHP could also encompass district-
in zoning and building codes that would fall level energy strategies through placement
within the scope of local planning authorities. of highly efficient energy generators near
Planners have significant influence over buildings where the produced heat and
policies that encourage the integration of power is needed, rather than requiring
distributed alternative energy generation into power transmission over long distances.
urban settings. Planning actions can help Combined heat and power has great
enable greater use of combined heat and potential to reduce greenhouse gas emis-
power (CHP) technologies that have the sions and results in overall cost savings to
potential to take all distributed generation communities and residents. However, only
technologies one step further in pollution part of the implementation of this policy
prevention by utilizing the waste heat from is within the purview of land use planners.
the generation of electricity for producing Utilities also will play an essential role in
steam, heating water, or creating cooling implementing this strategy.
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scapes around businesses and, to some ex- newly vulnerable areas and be prepared
tent, residences. Land use patterns will also to adjust zoning and floodplain maps and
affect the level of risk and additional expense management of low-lying lands near rivers
that counties and municipalities will bear in and coasts to accommodate more severe
times of more extreme flood events alternat- flooding. Floods once expected to occur
ing with drought conditions. every 100 years based on long-term histori-
Local land use planning can improve cal data may occur much more frequently.
water management practices in order to Storm water design standards also may
adequately prepare communities for changed need revision in order to accommodate higher
climate conditions, which may be significantly water flows through larger and more durable
drier than during the past century when most culverts, larger water retention and drainage
western communities developed (box 9). basins, improved drainage systems, and pro-
Local governments will need to acknowledge tection of pipes from disruption by floodwaters.
Box 9
Leadership in Water Conservation: City of Tucson, Arizona
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crop yields forecast for many areas. Reduced Studies of wildfire and climate change
supplies will make food more expensive and, in Canada point to a 74 to 118 percent
combined with higher prices and likely high- increase in the next century. Similar increases
er future transportation costs, will add to its seem likely for the western states and carry
price volatility. Locally produced crops are with them increased risks for communities
more likely to be heirloom varieties being near forestlands (Flannigan et al. 2005;
reintroduced and other regionally adapted Running 2006).
varieties. These local crop species may prove The fundamental changes being seen in
more resilient to changing climatic condi- these forestlands, combined with the prefer-
tions than the limited number of hybridized ence of westerners to locate in and near for-
varieties generally produced by large agri- ested wildlands, set the region on a collision
businesses. course between development and wildfire.
Current estimates indicate that only 14 per-
Forestry cent of the available wildland-urban inter-
The forests of the Intermountain West are face (WUI) in the Intermountain West is
already feeling the impacts of climate change. now developed. Much of the remaining
Although the economic importance of the
forestry industry has decreased in recent de- figure 6
cades, many communities in the region con- Large Wildfires Occur in Areas of Reduced Average Moisture
tinue to rely on forests as important to their
Forest Vulnerability: Early–Late Deficit
identity, sense of place, and quality of life,
as well as for jobs and income.
The amenity value of western forests is
significant. Much of the draw for new resi-
dents in the region is the scenic beauty asso-
ciated with the rugged mountains, forests,
and abundant wildlife. Often, the highest
value properties are those located adjacent
to or within these natural landscapes. The
preference for a home within or near forests
has increased development of these areas
which, like riparian flood plains, may be
subject to increased environmental hazards.
Since 1986, the Intermountain West has
experienced a fourfold increase in the num-
ber of major wildfires and a sixfold increase
in the area of forests burned, compared
to the 1970–1986 period (Westerling et al.
2006). Four primary factors, all linked to cli-
mate change, are blamed: earlier snowmelt,
higher summer temperatures, a longer fire
season, and an expanded area of vulnerable
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
high-elevation forests that previously were percent difference scaled by forest area
protected much of the year by snowpack
(figure 6). Source: Westerling et al. (2006).
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Healthy forest ecosystems also promote to nature for residents, preserving valuable
watershed health by absorbing greater ecosystem services, increasing recreational
amounts of runoff from storms, preventing opportunities, and keeping the community
erosion, and allowing more efficient recharge climate resilient.
of aquifers. Trees can provide shade to
streams, helping to keep water temperatures S u m m ary
cool, a condition essential to the survival of There is ample evidence in the climate
iconic western species like trout and salmon. action plans of the western states that cost-
Healthy forests can also serve as important effectiveness varies widely across different
carbon sinks, and could have increasing policy options, with many offering positive
potential in terms of sequestering CO2 from cost savings and/or potential co-benefits.
the atmosphere, as well as decreasing large Local governments should seek out the “low-
amounts of carbon released through the hanging fruit”—measures that are both
burning of catastrophic wildfires. effective at reducing GHG emissions and
Furthermore, natural open space and for- have a positive payoff—while considering
ests preserve biodiversity by protecting and the co-benefits offered by many policy op-
enhancing the habitat of western animal tions. Table 4 summarizes the average find-
and plant species. These strategies have ings across eight western states on five of
significant co-benefits for communities by these policy types (see Appendix for the
improving the quality of life and connection complete analysis).
Table 4
Average GHG Reductions and Cost-Effectiveness of Land Use–Related Policies
GHG Reductions Percent of Total Cost-effectiveness
Policy Type (mmtCO2e) Total Potential Reductions ($/tCO2e)
Green Building Average for all policies of this type 5.12 1.51 $35.94
and Building Energy (7 of the 8 states)
Efficiency Policies
Average for all policies of this type minus 5.05 1.47 -$25.53
California Solar Initiative (7 of the 8 states)
Land Use and Full suite of land use and 13.81 4.59 n/a
Transportation Policies transportation policies (4 of the 8 states)
Energy Supply Policies Support for distributed and other 6.14 1.14 $36.80
renewables (5 of the 8 states)
Support for combined heat and power 9.03 2.78 -$1.67
(5 of the 8 states)
Agriculture and Preserve open space/agricultural land 3.44 0.79 $43.76
Open Space Policies (5 of the 8 states)
Support local farming/buy local 2.04 0.65 $3.73
(4 of the 8 states)
Forestry and Forestland protection from development 1.55 2.35 $10.50
Wildfire Policies (6 of the 8 states)
Forest planning/management for 4.45 0.88 -$33.50
residential lands (4 of the 8 states)
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chapter 4
Barriers to Implementing
Local Climate Change Policies
W
Winter wetlands estern states have pioneered that have gained the requisite political
near Mt. Blanca, and financial support to be implemented
some of the more innovative
Alamosa County,
and potentially effective poli- in other regions may require significant
Colorado
cies to address climate change retooling to be applicable in these states.
on a state and regional basis. However, the The barriers and challenges faced by
region appears to be lagging when it comes planners regarding climate change policy in
to implementation of climate action at the the Intermountain West were articulated in
local level. Although most western states and several sources for this report. These included
many cities and towns are developing their roundtable discussions with a group of land
own climate plans, there is a widespread lack use planning experts convened by Western
of coordination between states and localities. Lands and Communities, as well as direct feed-
While planners in all regions may en- back obtained at various land use planning
counter obstacles to implementing climate and climate change conferences and forums.
mitigation and adaptation policies, some Additional challenges were examined in
barriers may be more prevalent and difficult greater detail through an opinion research
to overcome in the Intermountain West survey conducted for Western Lands and
given the region’s political, demographic, Communities by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin,
economic, and geographic context. Plans Metz & Associates (Metz and Below 2009).
Through a pair of focus groups and several communities, where politics often lean
dozen telephone interviews, the researchers to the more liberal politics espoused by
spoke to a variety of local government offi- the Democratic party.
cials—elected officials, city and county man- Furthermore, economic conditions in
agers, and planning staff—in seven western many traditional, resource extraction–based
states (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, rural western towns have grown worse in
New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming). recent years, due to declines in industries
Conversations focused on (1) identify- such as agriculture, mining, and forestry.
ing the primary obstacles to addressing These areas are more likely to resist the
climate change in land use planning, and conclusion that anthropogenic, or human-
how they can be overcome; (2) determin- caused, climate change is a reality upheld
ing which information local government by broad scientific consensus.
officials need to craft effective policies to Economically distressed communities
address climate change; and (3) evaluating also may be among the least able to plan
the best ways to convey that information for climate changes, given tight budgets
to local officials. and lack of resources to support planning
Few respondents named climate change personnel and expertise. Many officials in
as one of the most pressing planning chal- the survey reported that their communities
lenges facing their communities. This was would be unlikely to take steps to address
the case even when talking to officials from climate change that might place financial
the handful of local governments that have responsibility on local residents, unless they
formal climate action plans. However, many were provided with clear evidence that the
of the issues they mentioned do have con- economic benefits of the policies would
nections to climate change, such as water outweigh their costs.
supplies, energy use, and increased strain It is important to recognize that there
on local infrastructure and services. is an inherent challenge in reaping the eco-
nomic benefits of climate-related policies.
L ac k o f P o litical S u pp o rt While local communities may bear the brunt
Climate change is still perceived as politi- of the costs for policies and actions to ad-
cally controversial in many communities. In dress climate change, the benefits created
all but the largest and most environmentally can often extend beyond their communities,
concerned communities, survey participants which can also contribute to slow adoption
reported a hesitance within government to of mitigation and adaptation strategies.
take on an issue that they perceive as poten- The culture of the Intermountain West
tially divisive. Some local residents do not and its attachment to the concepts of rug-
realize it is a problem, and others oppose ged individualism and frontier spirit can
aggressive action to address it. sometimes present challenges to implement-
With views on the need for national cli- ing not only climate-related land use policies,
mate action basically split along party lines, but any zoning regulations or other govern-
garnering political support for local efforts ment policies concerning growth and devel-
can be difficult in the largely conservative opment that may affect private interests
and traditionally Republican states. Most while seeking to serve the public good. The
communities that have made a visible com- concept of private property rights is a core
mitment to working on climate change miti- value in much of the region, particularly in
gation are either large urban areas or resort rural areas, although (or because) federal
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and state government agencies own large party affiliation, the immensity of the chal-
tracts of land in these states. New, progres- lenge, and a lack of effective education on
sive land use planning policies, including the issue were cited as causes for apathy
those that could yield climate mitigation or about the need for climate action, as were
adaptation benefits, are often viewed with the public’s continuing preferences for
suspicion or disinterest. energy consumptive lifestyles.
This combination of factors makes secur-
ing sufficient support to integrate climate P ercei v ed L ac k o f P eer
change into meaningful planning efforts C o m m u n ities i n t h e R e g i o n
nearly impossible in some areas. Ironically, Another hindrance to effective climate change
many of the communities that rely on abun- action at the local level is a perceived lack of
dant natural resources for their livelihoods are peer communities engaged in the issue. In
the most vulnerable to climate change, and some areas of the nation, especially the coastal
would benefit greatly from forward-thinking regions of California, Oregon, and Washing-
policies to improve climate resiliency. ton, and the northeastern states, planning for
climate change mitigation is quickly becoming
D isc o u n ti n g t h e i m pact standard practice.
o f l o cal acti o n This is not yet true in other regions,
Another dimension limiting local action especially for smaller, nonresort communi-
on climate change is a belief that small-scale ties in the Intermountain West. Those that
adaptations and mitigation will not affect the do not fit the big city or resort community
larger picture. Climate change is a complex type may have a difficult time finding com-
global issue, and the media often portray munities similar to their own in circumstance,
far-ranging impacts such as melting glaciers, political leanings, and capacity to use as a
shrinking ice sheets, and threats to iconic model for their climate change efforts.
species like polar bears.
The challenge may appear so daunting L ac k o f R es o u rces
that the actions of a single community may a n d Opti o n s
seem unlikely to have an impact. Local offi- Even in the best of economic times, it can
cials may assume this problem is being solved be difficult for local governments to add
by higher levels of government through ma- new initiatives. And even though strategies
jor policy efforts, such as alternative energy such as energy efficiency improvements in
technology, the closure of coal-fired electricity government operations may save money in
plants, or the raising of vehicle fuel-efficiency the long run, up-front funding can be hard
standards. Even the process of generating to find. Add in the recent stress on typical
state climate action plans, which includes local government funding sources like sales
a number of necessary local policy actions, and property taxes and the picture can look
can cause local leaders to believe the prob- rather daunting. Yet local governments are
lem is out of their hands. finding that energy efficiency improvements
Elected officials everywhere are sensitive for buildings can significantly lower operat-
to the attitudes, opinions, and priorities of ing and maintenance costs. Using local
their constituents. Several respondents to the bonding authority or stretching out routine
research survey placed the blame for lack of maintenance to build cash reserves to fund
action on climate change mitigation square- improvements are ways to gain those long-
ly on the shoulders of the public. Political term benefits.
Antelope Flats,
Jackson Hole,
Wyoming
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and political atmosphere of the community to be useful, projecting a few seasons out at
in which they work. Translating climate most, or too long-term, looking 50 to 100
change information and policies for land use years into the future. Neither is appropriate
planners into a “one size fits all” format is for the 10- to 30-year planning horizon in
not likely to work. which most planners operate.
This barrier is compounded by the fact
L ac k o f A ppr o priate that at present most long-term climate
C li m ate S cie n ce f o r change predictions are probabilistic. This
P la n n ers makes it difficult for planners to assess how
A significant barrier to incorporating cli- to apply available information, how much
mate science into local land use planning is confidence to have in it, how to scale it
the lack of information prepared in a format to their area of concern, or how much to
that can be easily digested and integrated invest in options that incorporate climate
into decision-making processes. The main change but might be more expensive or
source of climate change information cur- complex. Planners accustomed to conduct-
rently is peer-reviewed scientific literature, ing precise analyses to guide their actions
which can be narrowly focused and difficult may be uncomfortable with this degree of
to translate into practical applications. uncertainty. Tools do not yet exist to allow
The paucity of information specifically them the same degree of precision in plan-
adapted for planners and citizens can also ning for climate change impacts as they
present a challenge. Finding and sufficiently have for current hazard risks, transporta-
distilling accurate projections of changes in tion infrastructure, and housing needs.
temperature, precipitation, and other fac- Even when planners and other local
tors, and how these may affect a particular decision makers can access and understand
community, can be a difficult task. Climate climate science, it can be difficult to know
variability information often resides in sources which land use–related policies are the most
unfamiliar to planners, such as scientific effective and strategic. Implementing such
journal articles or reports. Such material policies requires knowledge about which of
is frequently written for fellow experts in them has the greatest potential to signifi-
climate science, rather than decision makers cantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
or the general public, making it difficult for at what cost, and in what time frame.
planners to decipher. To date most state, county, and municipal
The complex topography, hydrology, and climate action planning has focused on re-
weather patterns of the Intermountain West ducing greenhouse gases—and rightfully
may present further challenges. Some parts so, given the urgency in preventing greater
of the region have highly variable climates, damages later. However, the Intermountain
making projections at a finer scale more West is likely to suffer severe climate change
important than in more homogenous areas. impacts, and western communities would
Current climate change projections based benefit from starting to plan for additional
on global models are relatively large-scale adaptation measures as soon as possible.
and may not reflect local conditions with
the degree of specificity that urban planners S u m m ary o f B arriers
would prefer. The barriers to implementing climate
Inappropriate temporal scales may also change policies at the local level may seem
be an issue. Forecasts are often too short-term overwhelming, but they can be understood
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chapter 5
Recommendations for Local
Planners and Communities
T
Participants he climate change challenge is action plans. These plans form the basis for
share views at the forcing the entire world to take no- more widespread action in the Intermoun-
Sonoran Institute’s
tice, and the Intermountain West tain West, and can help overcome some of
2006 Western
Community Stew-
is considered especially vulnerable. the primary barriers to such action. They
ardship Forum The region’s response must be two-pronged, are created through an iterative, inclusive
in Grand Junction, focused both on mitigating greenhouse gas process that ensures widespread support,
Colorado. emission levels and enacting measures to and thus are useful in overcoming the lack
adapt to the changes that are now deemed of political will that may hamper local efforts.
inevitable. Local planners and policy makers They also summarize key types of informa-
have important roles to play in these efforts tion, such as projected climate changes, in
as they affect land use and development. more user-friendly language.
The existing range of policy options Although state climate action plans pro-
can be implemented more effectively, and vide a basis from which to propagate local
sooner, if planners play an active role. Key climate action, further effort will be required
aspects of many of these policies, including to ensure widespread implementation of
their potential success in mitigating green- effective policies. For example, communities
house gas emissions and their cost-effective- may need assistance in assessing the costs
ness, can be found in state-level climate and benefits of various types of policies at
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Aspen,
Colorado
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development of a plan to address the im- true in the transportation sector, as most
pacts of climate change, public and political planning and infrastructure development
support for those policy changes can be ob- for roads, highways, and transit are most
tained on the front end, removing one of the appropriately handled at a regional scale.
more significant barriers to local action. Conservation planning, water management,
and energy planning are also best done at
E stablis h P eer C o m m u n ity a regional scale.
Netw o r k s o n a R e g i o n al Communities will need guidance to iden-
S cale tify activities and strategies that are best ac-
Communities need a road map, with tools complished at the regional rather than local
and best practices from peer communities, level and to develop approaches to improve
to assist them in taking concrete steps to im- coordination among neighboring jurisdic-
plement climate policies. Considering that tions. The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy,
most western states have drafted climate as part of its joint venture work with the
action plans that will need to be implemented University of Montana’s Center for Natural
at the local level, it is likely that a broader Resources and Environmental Policy, has
range of western communities will soon be developed a set of core principles for regional
in a position to share their best practices and collaboration (McKinney and Johnson 2009).
lessons learned. The establishment of peer Many regional initiatives emerge in
learning networks could change the percep- response to a growing threat that cannot
tion that few municipalities are addressing be addressed solely by local jurisdictions.
climate change issues and make best prac- Climate change certainly fits this description
tices more widely available across the and creates an opportunity to develop a de-
Intermountain West. liberative and thoughtful regional response
When asked what kind of information that involves multiple jurisdictions.
might help them develop policies to address
climate change, officials interviewed in the I de n tify R es o u rces a n d
survey most often mentioned case studies. a Variety o f Opti o n s
They sought studies that would demonstrate The good news is that many of the actions
the economic benefits of adopting climate planners can implement to mitigate and
change policies, highlight clear and action- adapt to climate change will actually result
able steps, and indicate what metrics could in significant short-term savings to their
be used to measure the effectiveness of the communities, as well as additional long-
policies. Officials emphasized that these stud- term benefits. In places where costs are a
ies should come from communities compa- major stumbling block, it may prove more
rable to their own in size, climate, economy, effective to start with policies that result
and political culture. They wanted the infor- in significant cost savings, and plan for a
mation to be concise, and whenever possible longer time frame for adoption of other
they would prefer to exchange information more expensive measures.
in person at local conferences or through Providing a menu of flexible options
direct presentations. rather than a rigid recipe of only one way
Many local-level actions necessary to to integrate climate change information into
address climate change have a significant planning could be the best option. Such an
regional component that requires interac- approach would allow planners to choose
tions across jurisdictions. This is particularly the policies most likely to have the greatest
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may still be considered complex. It also may of the eventual magnitude of climate
be at spatial or time scales that are inappro- change or the extent of its impacts
priate for local planning purposes. Some (Bark 2009).
of the most innovative policies for mitigating A critical first step for any jurisdiction
further climate change can be found in the in seeking to address the impacts of climate
growing number of municipal climate ac- change is to establish a baseline level of
tion plans. However, they take many differ- greenhouse gas emissions. Then it will be
ent forms, and many of the climate change possible to set a realistic target and measure
and sustainability policies in municipal local progress toward meeting emissions
plans also appear in state action plans. reduction goals or the impact of planning
Rather than waiting for new information decisions on the community’s carbon foot-
and tools to be developed or the science to print. Ongoing monitoring and measure-
be perfected, it may be more productive for ment of land use–related climate strategies
planners to focus on available information, such as the performance of buildings, urban
even if it is uncertain and imperfect for their form patterns, and transportation systems
purposes. For example, many cities may al- are equally important to ensure that these
ready be taking actions that are likely to pro- measures are meeting their objectives.
mote climate change mitigation and adapta- A greenhouse gas emissions inventory
tion as part of other efforts, such as sustain- and forecast provide an important bench-
ability, transportation, urban design, and mark for the community in measuring prog-
other types of planning. ress, as well as identifying those areas where
Other efforts might include educating the local government has been successful in
planners and other local decision makers lowering emissions. With this information,
to understand that the scientific assessment a local government can effectively pinpoint
of “very likely” is a high enough probability other strategies and sectors for increased
under which to implement some if not most mitigation or adaptation efforts, and build
policies, even if exact numbers cannot yet upon their success in developing policies
be determined. Some degree of uncertainty to address climate change.
is inherent in planning to mitigate or adapt
to climate change, just as it is in planning S u m m ary o f
for population growth or economic trends. R ec o m m e n dati o n s
One way to increase the comfort level Planners need to work closely with local
of planners is to examine climate science citizens and public officials to evaluate ways
from a planning perspective to discern the to implement changes that can both miti-
level of certainty planners actually need in gate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt
order to react with policy measures. For ex- to future impacts of the changing climate
ample, some decisions, such as how large of their region. This summary of recom-
storm water culverts must be or how far flood- mendations is designed to guide locally
plain restrictions should extend, require pre- appropriate climate action planning.
cise figures to maximize cost-effectiveness.
Others, such as green building and smart Mobilize the political will
growth policies, may not require such firm • Communities can focus on sustainability,
information, particularly if it can be made economic and energy efficiency, and the
clear that these “win-win” actions are likely co-benefits of local actions, rather than
to provide additional benefits regardless politically controversial policies and goals.
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Appendix
Table A1
Green Building and Building Energy Efficiency Policies
GHG Reductions Percent of Cost-
(mmtCO2e) Total Potential effectiveness
State Green Building and Building Energy Efficiency Policies Total Reductions ($/tCO2e)
Western Average for all policies of this type (7 of the 8 states) 5.12 1.51 $35.94
States
Average for all policies of this type minus 5.05 1.47 -$25.53
Averages
California Solar Initiative (7 of the 8 states)
Colorado Energy efficiency audits and upgrades for existing state buildings Not quantified
“Beyond Code” building design incentives and mandatory programs 3.40 2.71 -$5.00
Table A2
Land Use and Transportation Policies
GHG Reductions Percent of Total Cost-effectiveness
State Land Use and Transportation Policies (mmtCO2e) Total Potential Reductions ($/tCO2e)
Western States Full suite of land use and transportation policies 13.81 4.59 n/a
Averages
Arizona Smart growth bundle of options 26.70 4.14 $0.00
California Measures to improve transportation energy efficiency 18.67 13.48 $0.00
and smart land use and intelligent transportation
Washington Promote compact and transit-oriented development 14.85 3.31 Not quantified
State, regional, and local VMT 36.70 8.19
reduction goals and standards
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Table A3
Land Use–Related Energy Policies
Cost-
GHG Reductions Percent of Total effectiveness
State Land Use–Related Energy Policies (mmtCO2e) Total Potential Reductions ($/tCO2e)
California None
Colorado None
Distributed renewables 0.80 0.64 $21.00
Montana
Combined heat and power 5.00 3.98 $16.00
Incentives and promotion for renewable energy Not quantified n/a
and clean combined heat and power
Oregon None
Promote combined heat and power Estimates Not quantified Estimates
distributed generation using incentives and based on average based on average
removing institutional and other barriers GHG emissions GHG emissions
reduction cost reduction cost
Utah Distributed generation with combined estimates from estimates from
heat and power systems other states. other states.
Table A4
Land Use–Related Water Policies
Percent of Cost-
Land Use–Related GHG Reductions Total Potential effectiveness
State Water Policies (mmtCO2e) Total Reductions ($/tCO2e)
Arizona Water use and 6.00 0.93 n/a
wastewater management
California Water use efficiency 0.51 0.37 -$528.09
Colorado Plan for severe drought, Not quantified
flooding, and other risks
of climate change
Source: Adapted from individual state climate action plans.
Table A5
Agriculture and Open Space Policies
Percent of Cost-
GHG Reductions Total Potential effectiveness
State Agriculture and Open Space Policies (mmtCO2e) Total Reductions ($/tCO2e)
Western Preserve open space/agricultural 3.44 0.79 $43.76
States land (5 of the 8 states)
Averages
Support local farming/buy 2.04 0.65 $ 3.73
local (4 of the 8 states)
Arizona Reduce conversion of farm and 1.60 0.25 $65.00
rangelands to developed uses
Programs to support 0.10 0.02 $6.00
local farming/buy local
California None
Colorado None
Montana Preserve open space and 0.12 0.10 $32.00
working lands—agriculture
Programs to promote $5.00
0.12 0.10
local food and fiber
New Reduce permanent conversion 1.60 0.50 $62.00
Mexico of agricultural land and rangeland
to developed uses
Programs to support 5.90 1.83 $0.20
local farming/buy local
Oregon None
Utah Preserve open space/agricultural land Not quantified
Washington Preserve open space/agricultural land 10.42 2.33 $16.05
Support for an integrated Not quantified
regional food system
Source: Adapted from individual state climate action plans.
C a r t e r a n d C u l p ● P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m at e C h a n g e i n t h e W e s t 51
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Table A6
Forestry and Wildfire Policies
Percent of Cost-
GHG Reductions Total Potential effectiveness
State Forestry and Wildfire Policies (mmtCO2e) Total Reductions ($/tCO2e)
Western Forestland protection from development (6 of the 8 states) 1.55 2.35 $10.50
States
Forest planning/management for residential lands (4 of the 8 states) 4.45 0.88 -$33.50
Averages
Urban forestry (4 of the 8 states) 0.31 0.33 $11.50
Oregon None
r e f e r e nc e s
*Bark, R. 2009. Assessment of climate change McKinney, M. J., and S. Johnson. 2009. Working ———. 2009c. U.S. States and Regions: Western
impacts on local economies. Working Paper. across boundaries: People, nature, and regions. Cam- Climate Initiative. http://www.pewclimate.org/
Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land bridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. WesternClimateInitiative
Policy. www.lincolninst.edu/pubs
Meko, D.M., C.A. Woodhouse, C.H. Baisan, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency. 2009.
*Carter, R. 2008. Land use planning and the T. Knight, J.J. Lukas, M.K. Hughes, and M.W. Energy efficient buildings: Overcoming the barri-
changing climate of the West. Working Paper. Salzer. 2007. Medieval drought in the upper Col- ers. http://piee.stanford.edu/cgi-bin/htm/Buildings/
Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land orado River basin. Geophysical Research Letters 34, buildings.php
Policy. www.lincolninst.edu/pubs L10705, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029988 (May 24).
Resources for the Future. 2008. Weekly Policy
Center for Climate Strategies. 2009. Mission *Metz, D., and C. Below. 2009. Local land use plan- Commentary (November). www.rff.org/Publications/
statement. www.climatestrategies.us/CCS_Mission.cfm ning and climate change policy: Summary report WPC/Pages/11_10_08_California_Solar_Initiative.
from focus groups and interviews with local officials aspx
Colorado River Water Users Association. 2009. in the Intermountain West. Working Paper. Cam-
www.crwua.org/coloradoriver/memberstates/index. bridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. *Richards, T. 2009. Driving climate change
cfm?action=california mitigation at multiple levels of governance in the
National Academy of Sciences. 2007. Report West. Working Paper. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln
Condon, P. M., D. Cavens, and N. Miller. 2009. in brief. Colorado river basin water management: Institute of Land Policy. www.lincolninst.edu/pubs/
Urban planning tools for climate change mitigation. Cam- Evaluating and adjusting to hydroclimatic vari-
bridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. ability. http://dels.nas.edu/dels/rpt_briefs/colorado_ Running, S. 2006. Is global warming causing
river_management_final.pdf more, larger wildfires? Science 313 (5789):
Energy Information Administration. 2006. 927–928.
Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States 2005. Nelson, A.C. 2004. Toward a new metropolis:
Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy. The opportunity to rebuild America. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy. 2009. Weatheriza-
Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy tion and intergovernmental program. Energy
Ewing, R., K. Bartholomew, S. Winkelman, J. Program. efficiency and conservation block grants. http://
Walters, and D. Chen. 2008. Growing cooler: The apps1.eere.energy.gov/wip/block_grants.cfm
evidence on urban development and climate change. NOAA National Climatic Data Center. 2006.
Washington, DC: Urban Land Institute. 1980-2006 billion dollar weather disasters. www. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ncdc.noaa.gov/img/reports/billion/disasters2006.pdf 2006. Greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation
Flannigan, M., K. Logan, B. Amiro, W. Skinner, sector. EPA 420 R 06 003 (March).
and B. Stocks. 2005. Future area burned in Northern Arizona University. 2005. Center for
Canada. Climatic Change 72 (September): 1–16. Sustainable Environments. The Water and Ener- ———. 2009. Climate Change – Science.
gy Factsheet. http://home.nau.edu/environment/ www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentac.html
Gibson, K., K. Skov, S. Kegley, C. Jorgensen, water_energy_factsheet.asp
S. Smith, and J. Witcosky. 2008. Mountain pinebeetle Wayburn, L. A. 2009. The role of forests in U.S.
impacts in high-elevation five-needle pines: Current trends Perry, M. 2007. Remarks of Co-Chair of IPCC climate policy. Land Lines 21(4): 2–7 (October).
and challenges. USDA Forest Service, Forest Working Group 2, UK Met Office, Center for
Health Protection R1-08-020. Environmental Policy, Imperial College, London. Westerling, A., H. Hidalgo, D. Cayan, and
Climate challenge: IPCC 4th assessment report and beyond. T. Swetnam. 2006. Warming and earlier spring
Gude, P., R. Rasker, and J. van den Noort. 2007. Presentation at Climate Changes Spatial Plan- increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity.
Potential for future development on fire-prone lands. ning Conference, The Hague, Netherlands. Science 313 (5789): 940–943. www.sciencemag.org/
Bozeman, MT: Headwaters Economics. http:// 313/5789/940-943
headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/fire%20manu- Pew Center on Global Climate Change. 2009a.
script_9-28-07.pdf Climate change 101: Cap and trade. www.
pewclimate.org/docUploads/Climate101-CapTrade-
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Jan09.pdf * These working papers were commissioned
(IPCC). 2007. Climate change 2007: Synthesis by Western Lands and Communities as part
report. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ ———. 2009b. Regional greenhouse gas of the analysis for this policy focus report.
ar4_syr.pdf initiative. www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/
in_the_states/rggi/
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RE S O U R C E S
“The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program supports research that addresses complex
climate sensitive issues of concern to decision-makers and policy planners at a regional level. The RISA research
team members are primarily based at universities though some of the team members are based at government
research facilities, non-profit organizations or private sector entities. Traditionally the research has focused on the
fisheries, water, wildfire, and agriculture sectors. The program also supports research into climate sensitive public
health issues. Recently, coastal restoration has also become an important research focus for some of the teams.”
(www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/)
Climate Assessment for Arizona Forestry, Water Resource Community vulnerability, economics and
the Southwest (CLIMAS) New Mexico Management, Forest Fires, Agriculture, sectoral assessments, urban water studies
Snow Pack, Human Health
Climate Impacts Group (CIG) Idaho Fisheries, Water Resource Emphasis on intersection of climate
Oregon Management, Forestry, Snow Pack change and public policy; coauthored
Washington ICLEI adaptation guide
Western Water Assessment Colorado Agriculture, Water Resource Water resources and policy
(WWA) Utah Management, Snow Pack
Wyoming
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Climate Assessment for the Western Water Assessment (WWA)
Association (NOAA) Southwest (CLIMAS) NOAA Earth System Research
Climate Program Office Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Laboratory
Silver Spring Metro Center University of Arizona R/PSD 325 Broadway
Bldg 3, Room 11627 PO Box 210156 Boulder, CO 80305
1315 East-West Highway Tucson, AZ 85721 Phone: (303) 497-4573
Silver Spring, MD 20910 Phone: (520) 792-8712 http://wwa.colorado.edu/index.html
Phone: (301) 301-734-1200 www.climas.arizona.edu
www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa
Climate Impacts Group (CIG)
California Applications Program (CAP) Center for Science in the Earth System
Scripps Institution of Oceanography Joint Institute for the Study of the
University of California - San Diego Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)
9500 Gilman Drive University of Washington
La Jolla, CA 92093-0224 Box 355672
Phone: (858) 534-4507 Seattle, WA 98195-5672
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap Phone: (206) 616-5350
http://cses.washington.edu/cig
C a r t e r a n d C u l p ● P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m at e C h a n g e i n t h e W e s t 55
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a c k now l e d g m e n t s
The authors wish to recognize a number recommending steps for implementing • Meghan Sharp, International City/
of individuals and organizations for their climate change policies included in County Management Association
support and assistance with the devel- this report. (ICMA), Washington, DC
opment of this publication. Beyond the • John Shepard, Strategic and Program
general support of the Lincoln Institute Western Lands and Communities also Advancement, Sonoran Institute,
of Land Policy and the Sonoran Institute, conducted a Climate Change Workshop Tucson, Arizona
the 10 western state climate action in February 2008 in Phoenix, Arizona. • Karen Walz, Strategic Community
plans provided the backbone of this The following academic and policy ex- Solutions, Dallas, Texas
research document. perts added valuable advice for this • Stephen Wheeler, Department
report. The list reflects their affiliations of Environmental Design, University
The contributors noted below authored at the time of the workshop. of California, Davis
significant climate change research that • Armando Carbonell, Department • Rachel Winer, Idaho Smart Growth,
we drew on for this report: of Planning and Urban Form, Lincoln Boise, Idaho
• Emily Brott, Sun Corridor Legacy Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge,
Program, Sonoran Institute, Tucson, Massachusetts We extend a special thank you to several
Arizona • Scott Chesney, Economic Development climate change experts for their exten-
• John Fregonese, Fregonese Associ- Director, City of El Mirage, Arizona sive comments and recommendations
ates, Portland, Oregon • Patrick Condon, Landscape Architec- in reviewing this report.
• Jesse A. Logan, USDA Forest Service ture Program and Environmental • Angela Vincent, ICLEI–Local Govern-
(retired), Emigrant, Montana Design Program, University of British ments for Sustainability, Boston,
• Peter Pollock, Ronald Smith Fellow, Columbia, Vancouver Massachusetts
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, • Josh Foster, Transition of Research • Matthias Ruth, School of Public Policy,
Boulder, Colorado Applications to Climate Services University of Maryland, College Park
• Timothy Richards, Onslow County Program, National Oceanic and Atmo- • Joe Abraham, Climate Assessment for
Planning and Development Depart- spheric Administration (NOAA), Silver the Southwest (CLIMAS), University
ment, Jacksonville, North Carolina Spring, Maryland of Arizona, Tucson
• Connie A. Woodhouse, Department • Gregg Garfin, Institute for the Study • Andrea (Andy) Hill, Colorado Depart-
of Geography and Regional Develop- of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, ment of Local Affairs, Denver
ment, and David M. Meko, Laboratory Tucson • Mark Ruzzin, Boulder County Com-
of Tree-Ring Research, University of • Sharon Harlan, School of Human missioners’ Office, Boulder, Colorado
Arizona, Tucson Evolution and Social Change, Arizona • Kathy Jacobs, Department of Soil,
State University, Tempe Water, and Environmental Science,
The opinion research survey in spring • Ken Hughes, Energy, Minerals, University of Arizona, Tucson
2009 by Dave Metz and Curt Below of and Natural Resources Department,
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Asso- State of New Mexico, Santa Fe Finally, a debt of gratitude is owed
ciates of Oakland, California, was critically • Andy Laurenzi, Land and Water Policy to Judy Crawford and Mia Stier with
important. The team conducted focus Program, Sonoran Institute, Phoenix, the Sonoran Institute and Ann LeRoyer
groups and individual telephone interviews Arizona with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy,
on behalf of Western Lands and Com- • Lewison Lem, Center for Climate who each spent countless hours review-
munities to better understand how local Strategies, San Francisco, California ing and editing this report to bring it
officials in the Intermountain West are • Peter Pollock, Ronald Smith Fellow, into its final form.
addressing (or not addressing) climate Lincoln Institute of Land Policy,
change in their planning and local land Boulder, Colorado
use decisions. Their research proved • Mark Ruzzin, ICLEI–Local Governments
invaluable for identifying barriers and for Sustainability, Denver, Colorado
on natural resources from the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Business Cert no. SCS-COC-001366
and Public Administration and a B.A. in marine biology from the University
of California at Santa Cruz.
Photographs
ab o u t t h e L i n c o l n I n stit u te o f L a n d P o licy Index Open, cover
www.lincolninst.edu Valley Advocates for Responsible
Development, 2
Lincoln Institute is a private operating foundation whose mission is to iStockphotos.com, 4, 25, 27
improve the quality of public debate and decisions in the areas of land policy Sarah Pitcher, 5
and land-related taxation in the United States and around the world. The In- Louise Lasley, 8
stitute’s goals are to integrate theory and practice to better shape land policy John Crossley, 9
and to provide a nonpartisan forum for discussion of the multidisciplinary Portland Development Commission, 10
forces that influence public policy. The Institute seeks to inform decision Sonoran Institute, 18, 40
making through education, research, demonstration projects, and the dis- Mark Delsasso (Courtesy of the City of
Tempe), 23
semination of information through publications, our Web site, and other
Utah Transit Authority, 26
media. Lincoln Institute programs bring together scholars, practitioners,
Emily Brott, Sonoran Institute, 29
public officials, policy advisers, and involved citizens in a collegial learning Erik Stuhaug (Courtesy of Seattle Municipal
environment. Photo Archives), 30
Victoria Collier, 32
Van Truan, 34
ab o u t t h e S o n o ra n I n stit u te Jackson Hole Chamber of Commerce, 37
www.sonoraninstitute.org Clark Anderson, 39
Ann LeRoyer, 41, 43
The Sonoran Institute inspires and enables community decisions and
Judy Crawford, Sonoran Institute, 42
public policies that respect the land and people of western North America. Fernanda Falbo, Sonoran Institute, 47
The Institute provides tools, training, and research information for managing
growth and change, and encourages broad participation, collaboration,
and big-picture thinking to create practical solutions.
This report underscores the critical role of local planners in confronting the challenges posed by climate change
and acting in concert with federal, regional, and state efforts to implement mitigation and adaptation policies. Of
particular value for western planners are state-produced climate action plans that can guide local actions to miti-
gate and adapt to climate change. These state plans contain myriad policy options that not only quantify potential
greenhouse gas emissions reductions, but also provide specific policy language and cost-effectiveness measures.
In most communities, land use and transportation policies potentially reap the greatest rewards. An array of famil-
iar smart growth strategies for creating healthier communities now double as climate solutions: building codes and
standards, compact mixed-use development, transportation alternatives, distributed and renewable energy, water
resource consumption and planning, preservation of open space and agriculture, and mitigation of wildfire impacts.
This report encourages planners to take an active role in overcoming barriers to local action by taking positive
steps to integrate climate-oriented policies into their land use and development agendas as follows:
• Mobilize the political will. Focus on sustainability, economic and energy efficiency, and the co-benefits of local
actions, rather than politically controversial policies and goals.
• Recognize local action and citizen participation. Coordinate state and local activities to address climate
change, and use public education about climate change impacts to foster citizen participation and buy-in
for local programs.
• Establish peer community networks on a regional scale. Develop peer learning networks with guidance from
state climate action plans and regional initiatives to help smaller communities share ideas and learn from
each other.
• Identify resources and a variety of options. Refer to state climate action plans region-wide for a variety of
strategies and ideas that communities can select and apply to their own needs and circumstances.
• Adapt climate science to local planning needs. Seek out current information and tools in reports, Web sites,
and other resources that can help planners translate available climate science for local use, and develop
a baseline level of GHGs as a first step in measuring climate strategies and results.
ISBN 978-1-55844-203-0
ISBN 978-1-55844-203-0
Policy Focus Report/Code PF024