FINAL REPORT T O

NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN RESEARC H

TITLE : Regional Population Growt h

in the USS R
and Its Impact on Society :
1897-197 9

AUTHOR :

CONTRACTOR :

Robert A . Lewi s

The Trustees of Columbia University in th e

City of New York

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR : Robert A . Lewi s

COUNCIL CONTRACT NUMBER : 627- 6
DATE : May, 198 5

The work leading to this report was supported by funds provide d

by the National Council for Soviet and East European Research .

Executive Summar y

Regional Population Growth in the USS R

And its Impact on Society : 1897-197 9

Robert A . Lewi s
Columbia University

Executive Summar y
Purpos e
The research completed during this contract is a part of a
broader study on regional trends in population growth and thei r
impact on Soviet society . The purpose of this study is t o
describe and analyze regional population growth in total, urban ,
and rural

categories

by

disaggregating

them into thei r

components : natural increase, fertility, mortality, and ne t

migration .

To

appraise

the

demographic

effect

of

thes e

population changes, we order age and ethnic data into th e

appropriate regional units and make select projections to th e
year 2000 . The geographic units are the 19 economic regions o f
1961, four quadrants, and the total present-day territory of th e
USSR . The six census years (1897, 1926, 1939, 1959, 1970, an d
1979) comprise the time units, although after 1959 mortality an d
fertility data will be provided by region as available, and afte r
1974 regional rates will be estimated . Thus, this study wil l
provide for the first time a wide array of basic demographic dat a
in the USSR for the

census

years

since

1897

according t o

comparable regions and definitions, so that comparisons over tim e

for this period can be made . Our general approach is to test i n
the Soviet context demographic formulations drawn from th e
general demographic literature, and where they prove to b e
inadequate in explaining trends, to investigate condition s
specific to the USSR .
The research in this contract was directed toward orderin g
the necessary data into comparable territorial and definitional

- 2-

categories, especially age data, describing and analyzing th e

regional cha n g es in the total, urban, and rural age structur e
that occurred between 1897 and 1979, and appraising the impact o f
the changes in age structure on Soviet society . The major effor t
during the contract period was devoted to data processing an d
estimation that resulted in a consistent series of age data b y
five-year age groups for the present day territory of the USSR ,
for the six census years since 1897, for 19 economic regions an d
four quadrants, for the total, male and female population i n
total, urban and rural categories . All of the data for 1979 ha d
to be estimated, using a procedure that we adopted for thi s
purpose . Thus, for the first time changes in the age structur e
of the USSR since 1897 can be measured and analyzed in consisten t
definition and regions . Another major effort was devoted t o
estimating and adjusting regional mortality and fertility fo r
1897 and 1926 .
Finding s
The major demographic effect within a closed population o f
the decline in mortality and especially fertility associated wit h
modernization is a drastic change in the age structure from

younger to an older population . This process is mainly governe d

by changes in fertility. Within a closed population, however, i n
addition to fertility and mortality, migration affects the ag e
structure . Consequently, there is usually considerable regiona l
and urban-rural variation in age structure with modernization ,
because the population transition occurs at different times and

- 3-

rates regionally depending on the level of economic and socia l

development, and because economic migration is age selective .
With further economic development, however, there is regiona l
convergence toward the older age groups within a society .
In the USSR, these universal patterns have prevailed an d
were related, as expected, to differing rates of fertility an d
mortality decline and of migration, although idiosyncrati c
events, such as war, have had some effect . For example, th e
total, urban, and rural shares of the working age populatio n
(ages 20-59) rose appreciably since 1897 in all quadrants excep t
the

Non-Slavic

South,

where

the share declined despite

significant rise between 1970 and 1979 . The share of the youn g
dependents (ages 0-19) in the total, urban, and rural categorie s
declined sharply since 1897 in all quadrants except the non Slavic South where it remained high despite a decline betwee n
1970 and 1979 . Since 1897, there has been an appreciable rise i n
the share of old dependents (ages 60 and over) in all quadrant s
and in all categories . The overall trends between 1970 and 197 9
were a sharp decline in the share of young dependents, a shar p
increase in the share of the population of working age, and a
moderate

increase

in the share of all

dependents

in al l

quadrants, regions, and categories for both sexes .

Implication s
Our research provides no basis for dire predictions o f
demographic crises in the USSR . With respect to changes in ag e
distribution, what has occurred in the USSR is essentially what

-4has occurred in other modernized countries . The overall change s

in the Soviet age structure have been primarily related t o
fertility decline, although mortality decline and war have ha d
some effect . If one assumes that relatively more workers an d
fewer dependents are advantageous to economic development ,
consumption, and production, the overall changes in the ag e
structure that occurred between 1970 and 1979 were favorable fo r
Soviet society, because the share of the population in th e
working ages, which in the USSR closely approximates the wor k
force, rose with only very few exceptions in all populatio n
categories, in all quadrants, and in all regions for both sexes .
The share of the young dependents declined much more than th e
share of the old dependents rose, which resulted in the declin e
in the combined dependent category and the corresponding increas e
in the working age population, Even if the cost per dependent o f
supporting old dependents exceeded the cost of supporting youn g
dependents as in the United States, the mix of the change i n
dependency

would

appear to be favorable because of

the shar p

decline in young dependents . If the age-specific mortality rate s

had remained constant during this period, the crude death rate o f
the USSR and most parts would have risen, because there was a n
aging of the population, which accounts for some of the rise i n
the crude death rate that has recently occurred in the USSR .
Changes in the composition of the working age population ca n
also affect economic development and production, if a less o r
more productive cohort or component increases its share of th e
working age population . The overall trend between 1970 and 1979

- 5-

was an aging of the population of working age . If experience i s

emphasized, this change is favorable, but if higher levels o f
education is emphasized, the change is unfavorable . Considerin g
the great increase in levels of education since World War II ,
particularly

in

non-European

areas,

and the

increasin g

educational requirements of a modern economy, it would appea r

that the aging of the working age population that occurre d
between 1970 and 1979 was an unfavorable influence, and it ma y
have adversely affected productivity .
Suffice it to say, however, these changes have not resulte d
in a demographic crisis, and simplistic interpretations based o n
a crude

demographic determinism

should be avoided in th e

appraisal of the impact of population change on Soviet society .

Regional Population Growth in the USSR an d

Its Impact on Society : 1897-197 9
Robert A . Lewi s
Columbia Universit y
Introductio n

Good empirical demographic research requires the following :

1) ordering the required data into consistent definitional an d
territorial categories, 2) evaluating the data, 3) calculatin g
standardized measures, 4) applying methods to estimate data tha t
are wanting, and 5) applying theory and methods to analyze th e
data and to appraise the societal impact of population trends .
This final report and the study that it describes are based o n
this proposition and this perspective . Moreover, with respect to
demographic

research

on the USSR,

these requirements

ar e

compounded by especially severe problems in data comparability,

lack of

data and

l 11
10

01

O. G La ,

which requires much data processing and estimation to overcome .

Such research should go well beyond Soviet demographic work o n
the USSR, particularly in terms of theory and method, with it s
disabilities imposed by secrecy, ideology, and bureaucracy .
Results of Soviet research should, of course, be incorporate d
where appropriate, but empirical demographic work should not b e
based exclusively, or nearly so, on such studies .
In order to describe the work that has been done on th e
project during the past two years, this report is divided into

-2five main parts : 1) Purpose, 2) Work Completed, 3) Methodology ,

4) Findings, and 5) Implications . The Purpose will comprise a
summary of the original proposal . The Work Completed sectio n
will emphasize data processing and estimation, because of thei r
importance in this stage of our work .

Methodology

will b e

devoted to the methods that were used to derive the age data .
Findings will be concerned with age distribution, because thi s
work was the chief
Implications

emphasis

during

the

contract

period .

will investigate the societal influence of change s

in age distribution between 1970 and 1979 . However, befor e

discussing these subjects, it would be appropriate to discus s
briefly the publications that have or will shortly result fro m
our recent work .
There were four sessions at the 1984 Meetings of th e
Association of American Geographers dedicated to Professo r
Chancy Harris, who is retiring from the University of Chicago .
We read two papers based on the project at these sessions, and

contributed a paper to a festschrift in his honor . These paper s

are appended .
At present, we are preparing two papers on age distribution .
The chief problem in publishing the results of our age estimate s
is that the 1897-1979 series would require upwards of 150 page s
of tables, so most of the data will have to be published in th e
book . One article will be short and will present data in gros s
regions and gross categories . The other will deal in some detai l
with the 1979 estimates . Two journal editors have shown som e
interest in publishing these papers .

-3-

Although not directly related to this contract, it is worth y

of mention that Richard Rowland, I, and three of our assistant s
(Craumer, Liebowitz, and Schwartz) contributed papers to the Cle m
project on Soviet Censuses during the contract period .
Purpos e
The proposed research is the continuation of a long-term ,
20-year project whose chief purpose has been to describe an d
analyze, both on an all-Union and regional basis, populatio n
change in the present-day territory of the USSR since 1897 and t o
attempt to determine its impact on society . In the most genera l
sense, the following questions are posed : (1) What is th e
expected theory with respect to population trends? (2) Wha t
trends occurred in the USSR, and what factors were they relate d
to? (3) How did government policy affect these trends? (4) Wha t
impact have these trends had on Soviet society? Because o f
immense problems in data comparability, it was and continues t o
he necessary to reorder the data in

t he various Russian an d

Soviet censuses, as well as data from censuses of surroundin g

countries, into a consistent set of internal units according t o
consistent

definitions .

Thus,

for the chief

demographi c

variables, we have generated and continue to generate an origina l

series of data for the total, urban, and rural populations tha t
permit comparisons over time for the census years since 1897 fo r
the first time . The first two volumes, which were devoted t o
nationality and population redistribution, of a three-volum e
series have been completed .

-4The current research involves regional population growth an d

its impact on society . Our major effort was to generate b y
economic region since 1897 the necessary consistent serie s
relating

to population growth

in

total,

urban,

and rura l

categories, which include natural increase, net migration ,

fertility, mortality, age distribution, ethnic distribution, an d
select projections to the year 2000 . The changes in age an d
ethnic distribution, of course, relate to the implications o f
population growth, whereas the other variables relate to th e
analysis of population growth . This stage of the work emphasize s
these consistent series as a step toward answering the fou r
questions that were posed . These data comparable by territor y
and definition have considerable value independent of the broade r
study .
Work Complete d
Because of severe problems of data comparability among th e
Soviet censuses and a lack of data, particularly for 1979 ,
considerable data processing is required to order the data int o
territorial and definitional categories that can be analyzed ove r
time, and considerable estimation is required to fill in dat a
gaps . Thus, a major effort has been directed toward thes e
activities . However, because of the broad scope of this project ,
work progressed in a number of other areas as well, such a s
bibliography, mapping, data compilation, the typing of tables ,
and computer programs .
Age Distributio n
The major effort during the contract period was devoted to

-5-

data processing that resulted in a consistent series of age dat a

in meaningful regions for a major portion of the earth for almos t
a century . This series was five-year age groups for the present day territory of the USSR, for the six census years since 1897 ,
for 19 economic regions and four quadrants, for the total, male ,
and female populations, by total, urban, and rural categories .
This work required about eight man-years of work .
Age data are probably the most important variables derive d
from a census, because of its many uses, and age is a primar y
human characteristic . Declining birth and death rates associate d
with modernization result in drastic changes in the age structur e
of a population, and age data in appropriate categories ar e
required to analyze these changes and their effect on society .
Thus,

age data are

important

in

analyzing

changes

in ag e

structure and in appraising the impact of population change o n

society . Because so many aspects of society are age specific ,
includin g

birth, death, marria g e, work forc e

pa r tic pation

educational attainment, crime, consumption, retirement, and lif e

styles, major shifts in age distribution can have desirable o r
undesirable

effects

on a society and

constitute

a majo r

demographic force shaping a society .

Age data,

normally by five-year

age groups,

are als o

essential inputs for a variety of demographic methods, such a s

stable population and life table procedures, direct and indirec t
standardization and the derivation of a variety of ratios .
Therefore, age data in appropriate categories are essential to

-6the study of population .

All of the 1979 age data had to be estimated, because th e
published results of the 1979 Soviet Census include no age data .
To make these estimates taking into account migration, we adapte d
the Deming-Stephan Inflation Method, which is normally used t o
correct samples . As inputs, we use 1970 census data and marginal s
from the 1979 census or estimates . We also attempted to estimat e
similar data for 1939, but because of the lack of data we hav e
only been able to estimate the total age distribution by economi c
region by five-year age groups, but not by sex . We have suc h
estimates by sex only for the republics for 1939 .
Age data for 1897, 1926, 1959, and 1970 required considerabl e
reordering

of

census

data

with

respect

to

territory

an d

definition . Suffice it to say that no tertiary territorial uni t

was the same in all censuses, and aside from age and sex, n o
definition was the same in all census years . With respect to ag e
data, the 1897 and 1926 censuses required considerable adjustmen t
with respect to territory, but no adjustment with respect t o
definition, because data were available by single years of age .
Although the urban population could be allocated with precisio n
by urban center, many units had to be apportioned to derive th e
rural age data . Moreover, data for border areas, which wer e
formerly outside the border of Russia and the USSR but currentl y
are within the USSR, were particularly difficult to derive ,
because of problems of comparability between the East Europea n
censuses and the Soviet censuses and the lack of age data in th e
required categories . Consequently, considerable estimation was

-7 -

required . Age data for 1959 and 1970 required relatively littl e
territorial adjustment, but much more definitional adjustment ,
because data in five-year age groups were often lacking .
This series of data was worth the great effort that i t
required, because it fills a major demographic gap regionally ,
for a primary demographic characteristic, for the total, urban ,
and rural categories, for one-sixth of the eart h ' s surface, fo r
almost a century . For example, such a series of data are no t
available for most of the world ' s population .
Fertility and Mortality Estimates by Economic Regio n
To analyze total, urban, and rural growth, total, urban, an d
rural mortality and fertility rates are required . Because of th e
lack of data and the

unreliability

of

data,

considerabl e

estimation is also required to derive these necessary series .

For 1897, vital statistics are only available for the 50 Europea n
gubernii, for 1926 the reported data are highly suspect, and fo r
the

postwar

p eriod urban and rural data are

lackin g . I n

addition, standardized measures are required to take into accoun t

varying age and sex structures .
Another major effort in the past two years has been th e
estimation of the necessary mortality and fertility data for 189 7
and 1926 using age distribution and a variety of procedures ,
including

stable-population

and

life-table

procedures

an d

indirect standardization . For example, for 1926, fertility wa s

estimated nine different ways, although the 1897 estimates wer e
not done this many times . We have yet to arrive at a final

- 8series, but work is nearing completion, and we will have a n

interesting discussion of the results of the various estimatio n
procedures . We have also gathered the necessary mortality an d
fertility data for the border area for 1897 and 1926 from th e
published

vital

statistics

of

neighboring

countries,

an d

estimated standardized rates for the postwar period for 1959 an d

1970 by economic region .
Compilation of Tables and Maps
A major effort was made to collect available mortality an d
fertility data and tabulate them . This past year the followin g
sources were surveyed : 800 volumes of the Narodnoye Khozyaystv o
series at the republic and oblast level, all volumes of Vestni k
Statistiki from 1950 to present, all volumes (130) of the leadin g
Soviet and republic public health journals (Zdravookhraneniye )
since

1950,

and 150

monographs

on

Soviet

population .

Th e

following data where available were tabulated from these sources :

1) crude fertility, mortality and national increase rates and i n
thousand of persons for 1940 and 1950 to the present at the SSR ,
oblast, and city level, 2) infant mortality rates for 1940 an d
1950 to present at the SSR and city level, 3) crude fertility an d
mortality rates at republic level by urban-rural for 1940 an d
1950 to present, 4) age-specific death rates at the USSR an d
republic level by sex and by urban-rural for available years, an d
5) age-specific fertility rates at the USSR and republic level b y
urban and rural, where available . In addition, a variety o f
other data were collected but not tabulated, such as USSR an d
regional life tables and life-table data, and data on causes of

-9-

death . Richard Rowland spent two weeks at the Berkeley an d

Hoover

libraries

and I spent a month in the USSR doin g

bibliographical work .
We have also compiled, drawn, and reproduced 30 maps base d
on our age distribution data, and compiled many more . We hav e
typed about 30 to 40 pages of tables and written rough-draf t
material .
Thus, a significant portion of the work necessary for th e
third volume has been completed . Furthermore, I think that th e
opportunity afforded to my graduate students to work on thi s
project has been very beneficial for their future careers .
Methodology
Modern Russian and Soviet censuses since 1897 cover abou t
one-sixth of the worl d ' s land surface, and thus constitute

major source of basic demographic data for a large portion of th e

earth for a significant period of time . The censuses conducte d
in 1897, 1926, 1939, 1959, 1970, and 1979 are the chief source s
of socioeconomic data for Russia and the USSR, even though th e
periods covered, the intervals between the various enumerations ,
and the range of data published are not uniform or entirel y
satisfactory . Russian and Soviet census figures measure suc h
essential elements of society as age, sex, ethnicity, marriage ,
migration, education, and work force according to total, urban ,
and rural categories .
Data

comparability--definitional,

territorial,

an d

temporal--is the central statistical problem in using the

- 1 0censuses in the study of the population and society of the USSR .

Owing to severe comparability problems, trends which are crucia l
to demographic analysis cannot be established among censuse s
unless data are rendered comparable . These statistical obstacle s
largely account for the fact that the censuses have been use d
relatively little in the study of Russian and Soviet society . To
compound these problems, it appears that only very limite d
results, and virtually none of the vital age data, will b e
published from the 1979 census .
Because the national territory of the USSR has change d
several times over the last century, its present-day border s
differ from those of 1897, 1926, and 1939 . Consequently, i n
order to provide even comparable aggregate data based on th e
territory of the USSR today, it is necessary to gather data fro m
East European and other censuses for the border areas formerl y
outside, but currently within the USSR . However, aggregate dat a
for a country as large and diverse as the USSR are not especiall y
meaningful, and therefore some sub-national regionalization i s
necessary to analyze population and socio-economic trends .
Unfortunately, frequent and drastic changes in the interna l
political-administrative divisions into which census and othe r
data are ordered make it very difficult to compare regiona l
demographic and socioeconomic characteristics over time . Fo r
example, the number of major enumeration units in 1897 was 89 ; i n
1926, 189 ; and in 1959, 1970, and 1979, about 140 . Furthermore ,
no enumeration unit in any census had the same boundaries in al l
census years . Thus, the major tasks with respect to territorial

- 1 1-

comparability of Soviet census data are to gather data for borde r

areas from the censuses of neighboring countries, and to reorde r
the Russian and Soviet data into a consistent set of territoria l
units .
Problems of definitional comparability are especiall y
nettlesome in demographic research on Russia and the USSR .
First, and most obviously, many important categories are define d
differently from census to census, including such key socio economic indicators as urban residence, educational attainment ,
ethnicity, and occupations . In fact, sex and age were the onl y
two characteristics for which the definitions were directl y
comparable in all censuses, although the age categories in whic h
the data were published were not always comparable . A second ,
and more subtle problem is that little systematic attention i s
given to definitions, and consequently it is often difficult t o
determine changes in categories .
Still another problem is that of temporal comparability,

difficulty that arises because of the irregular intervals ove r

which

censuses

have been taken in

Russia

and the USSR .

Therefore, when measuring change among the various censuses, i t

is necessary to use average annual rates of change to standardiz e
for the different intercensal periods . One should also avoi d
assuming that change between two censuses was linear . Fo r
example, in the two intercensal periods which included wars, mos t
demographic trends were not linear, but fluctuated considerably .
Even between 1926 and 1939, when there was no war, it is not

- 1 2reasonable to assume that change in such variables as mortalit y

and fertility was linear, because famine, drastic economi c
reorganization, and variations in socioeconomic condition s
clearly had a specific temporal impact .
The 1897 census was conducted on February 9 (January 2 8
according to the Julian calendar), the 1926 census on Decembe r
17, the 1939 census on January 17, and the 1959, 1970, and 197 9
censuses on January 15 . In the computation of average annua l
rates, a period of 29 .9 years is used for the 1897-1926 period ,
12 .1 years for the 1926-39, 20 .0 for the 1939-59, 11 .0 years fo r
the 1959-70, 9 .0 for 1970-79, and 82 years for 1897-1979 .
For the past two decades, we have done considerable researc h
on problems of territorial and definitional comparability relate d
to the Russian and Soviet censuses . As a result of thes e
efforts, we have generated a wide array of variables that ar e
comparable both in terms of territory and definition . I wil l
describe in brief the procedures that we derived in an attempt t o
solve the many comparab ility

problems associated with th e

original census data, because these procedures were used in thi s

study .1
There is no ideal set of regions for the study of al l

'For a more detailed discussion of procedures, see : Rober t

A . Lewis, Richard H . Rowland, and Ralph S . Clem, Nationality an d
Population Change in Russia and the USSR (New York : Praeger ,
1976), pp . 29-60 ; J . William Leasure and Robert A . Lewis ,
Population Changes in Russia and the USSR :
A set of Comparabl e
Territorial Units
(San Diego : San Diego State College Press ,
1966), pp . v-41 ; and Robert A . Lewis and Richard H . Rowland ,
Population Redistribution in the USSR (New York : Praeger, 1979) ,
pp . 30-36 .

-1 3-

aspects of demographic change . Nevertheless, a careful selectio n

of

regions

into

which population

data will be

ordered

is

important to avoid biasing the data excessively . For our study ,

the 19 major

(Krupnyye)

Soviet economic regions of 1961 wer e

selected as the consistent territorial units into which th e

original data would be ordered . These regions were chose n
because their scale was appropriate for regional analysis ,
because it was easier to order data into these regions than th e
more numerous lower order political-administrative units, an d
because they were largely congruent with the ethnically-base d
federal structure of the USSR . Moreover, the 1959, 1970, an d
1979 political-administrative and census units conform to thes e
regions without major adjustments, and other data pertinent t o
demographic analysis have been presented in these regions .
In order to allocate original data into the comparabl e
territorial units (i .e ., the 19 economic regions), it was assume d
that the rural population was evenly distributed within eac h
administrative unit . Thus, a variation in area would result in a
proportionate variation in rural population . For our purposes ,
the rural population was defined as the population not living i n
centers of 15,000 and over ; because the census definitions o f
"urban" varied considerably from census to census, we chose th e
size criterion of 15,000 (the smallest urban center for whic h
data were available in all censuses) . The procedures fo r
allocating the rural population are simple and straightforward .
The first major step was to superimpose a map of the economic

-14regions over a map of the political units for each census year ,
and then to measure with a polar planimeter the percent of th e
area of a given political unit that fell into a given region ,
what we termed the "area allocation ." Equal area maps o f
relatively small scale were used, and where possible the result s
were checked with larger scale maps . In practice, many politica l
units fell totally within the larger economic regions, obviatin g
the need for allocation . Thus, the rural populations of th e
units that comprised an economic region were multiplied by thei r
area allocation and summed to obtain the estimate for the rura l
population of that region .
The allocation of the urban population actually require d
fewer calculations, because the urban population is spatiall y
concentrated and its location known ; urban centers could b e
allocated

directly

into

the

appropriate

economic

region .

Accordingly, the summation of the population in centers of 15,00 0

or more from the given political units allocated to a give n
economic region yielded the urban population estimate for tha t
region . An estimate was made of the urban and rural population s
and of the total (i .e ., urban plus rural) population of a give n
political unit that were allocated to a given region . Th e
percentage that this allocated population comprised of the tota l
population of the original unit was termed the "populatio n
allocation ." Once the total, urban, and rural populations o f
each unit had been allocated to the appropriate regions, it wa s
possible to estimate these populations for each economic regio n
simply by a summation of all constituent allocations . These

-1 5-

procedures--with adjustments for census dates--were also applie d

to border areas currently within the USSR that were outside th e
boundaries of the Russian Empire or the USSR in 1897 and 1926 an d
thus not included in the Russian and Soviet censuses .
To estimate demographic variables for the total populatio n
of each region in 1897 and 1926, the number of persons in a give n
unit with

certain

characteristics

was

multiplied

by th e

population allocation . For the few border areas for which dat a
were not available, we assumed that the characteristics of th e
population for which we had data could be applied to the entir e
population of the region, or we made independent estimates . Th e
allocation of the demographic characteristics of the urba n
population wa s

somewhat

procedure

to

wa s

more complicated . The most logica l

allocat e

the

urban

(census

definition )

characteristics on the basi s of the urban (census definition )

population of a unit that was fitted into an economic region .
The summation of the allocated figures for each region resulte d
in an estimate of th e

characteristic s

definition) population of each region .

estimate of the characteristic s
population, these data were

of the urban (censu s

In order to derive a n

of the urban (15,000 and over )

adjusted by assuming that th e

characteristics of the urban (census definition) population coul d

be applied in the same proportion to the urban (15,000 and over )
population . Available facts indicate that the error involved i n
these procedures was small .
In summary, the most basic aspect of demographic research is

- 1 6-

the

determination

of

trends

over

time,

which

in turn ar e

essential in the analysis of the determinants of populatio n

change and demographic comparisons over time and space . As w e
have seen, population trends cannot be derived from the Russia n
and Soviet censuses unless major problems in territorial an d
definitional comparability are solved . The procedures that w e
derived make it possible for the first time to establish thes e
trends over time for the present-day territory of the USSR for

wide variety of census variables such as ethnicity, urbanization ,

labor force, sex, age, fertility,and literacy for the total ,
urban, and rural populations .
To estimate the age data for 1979 required additiona l
procedures . We adapted the Deming-Stephan inflation formula t o
make these estimates . This method is normally used to correct a
defective sample based on a know universe . What is required i s
1970 age data by appropriate cat e g ory and territorial unit an d
sums of rows and columns for 1979 . A complete set of data fro m
one census year, known as the sampling frequencies, is inflate d
by means of an iterative procedure to equal the sums of the row s
and columns referred to as the marginal or control totals . Thi s
produces a second set of cells which are estimates of the missin g
information . A considerable disaggregation of the data that ar e
being run is required . It was also necessary to devise age dat a
by five-year age groups by region and sex for the total, urban ,
and rural categories for 1970 as a basis for the estimation .
Ours is a unique application of this method, and our results see m
reasonable and take into account migration . Our test estimates

-1 7-

of known 1970 data were reasonably close, and our estimates ar e

very close

to the

scattered

1979

age data that have bee n

published . For example, our estimates of rural 0-14 for the tota l
USSR was exactly the same as the published one, and our estimate s
of the rural working age population of Kirgiziya was about a
percentage point off from the published 1979 figure . There are ,
however, some inconsistencies in the five-year cohorts for 1979 ,
but they do not appear in the ten-year cohorts .
Finding s
Because much of our effort was directed toward generatin g
the age data, it would seem appropriate to use these data t o
exemplify the results of our research . Tables 1-14 present ag e
data that are greatly aggregated with respect to both territor y
and definition, because the tables by five-year age groups ,
economic

region,

and sex for the

total,

urban,

and rura l

population that we derived for the census years since 1897 woul d
require much space .

Thes e patterns, however

are somew ha t. gross ,

and disaggregated data would reveal variations within regions an d

definitional

categories .

Nevertheless,

these regions an d

categories are sufficiently homogeneous to provide a basis fo r

analysis of the changing age structure of the USSR, and permi t
for the first time regional and national comparisons over tim e
since 1897 .
The major demographic effect within a closed population o f
the decline in mortality and especially fertility associated wit h
modernization is a drastic change in the age structure from a

-18-

younger to an older population . This process is mainly governe d

by changes is fertility . Within a closed population, however,i n
addition to fertility and mortality, migration affects the ag e
structure . Consequently, there is usually considerable regiona l
and urban-rural variation in age structure with modernization ,
because the population transition occurs at different times an d
rates regionally, depending on the level of economic and socia l
development, and because economic migration is age selective .
With further economic development, however, there is a regiona l
convergence toward the older age groups within a society . Fo r
example, a stationary population with life expectancy at birth o f
about 70, which is about that of the USSR at present, would hav e
27 percent of its population 0-19 ; 52 per cent, 20-59 ; and 2 0
percent, over age 60 . These figures provide a reference wit h
which to compare the trends over time in Soviet age structure ,
and are probably reasonable approximation of levels that will b e
reached around the turn of the century as the Soviet populatio n
approaches a stationary population . Fertility in the Slavic an d
Baltic

areas

is

generally below replacement

for a

stabl e

population, but in the Non-Slavic South, especially Central Asia ,

it is generally well above replacement .
As to the total population 0-19 (Table 1), there have bee n
drastic declines in the share of young dependents, which in th e
western part of the USSR is approaching that of the abov e
stationary population . The share of young dependents in the Non Slavic South has changed very little since 1897, although it ros e
between 1959 and 1970, and since 1970 has declined . The rise was

-1 9-

probably the result of declining infant mortality and some ris e

in fertility, which has not been conclusively documented, and th e
decline largely reflects the decline in fertility that occurre d
after 1970 especially in Central Asia . Clearly, the Non-Slavi c
South is in an earlier stage of the population transition, wit h
higher levels of fertility . In general, declines in infan t
mortality have dampened the effect on the age structure o f
declining fertility in the USSR . The influence of migration o n
regional age structure at the quadrant scale was minimal for th e
total population, particularly after 1970 . Between 1970 an d
1979, all quadrants experienced an appreciable decline in thei r
share of young dependents .
Changes in the 0-19 urban population were roughly similar t o
that of the total, although the levels were generally lowe r
because of lower urban fertility (Table 1) . Conversely, th e
levels of the 0-19 rural population was generally higher becaus e
of

1, 4 ,- , ,-

r- ;

it th e rural area s , e'.

though the pattern s

of change were roughly similar to the total population 0-1 9

(Table 1) . The share of the young dependents in the urba n
population was affected more by net in-migration, particularly i n
the earlier period when the urban population was small . As th e
rural population declined in the postwar period in the norther n
areas, the influence of net out-migration on regional ag e
distribution increased . The share of young dependents in th e
rural population of the Non-Slavic South is notably high even i n
1979 .

- 2 0As expected, a sharp decline in the share that the youn g

dependents comprised of the total population resulted in a ris e
in other age cohorts, especially the old dependents (Table 2) .
The population over age 60 was characterized by a sharp increase ,
although in general the levels were lower than might be expected ,
largely because of the very high war losses . The rise in th e
Russian East was dampened by net in-migration, especially befor e
1959, and in the Non-Slavic South by relatively high fertility ,
especially before 1970 . The pattern of change for the urban an d
rural old dependents reflect these factors as well (Table 2) .
The high levels for the western USSR in 1979 for the rura l
population reflect the out-migration of the young from rura l
areas, and the generally lower levels in the urban areas reflec t
the influence of the net in-migration of a younger population .
The generally lower levels in the Non-Slavic South reflect th e
higher fertility in these regions, especially Central Asia.
Because the share comprised by the young dependents decline d
to a much greater extent that the old dependents increased, th e
working age population increased its share in all quadrant s
except the Non-Slavic South (Table 3) . The total population 20 59 in the northern quadrants increased to levels higher than fo r
a corresponding stationary population, largely because of hig h
war losses, so in time these levels are expected to subside . Th e
working age population of the Non-Slavic South has remaine d
relatively

low,

largely

because

of higher

fertility

an d

relatively limited net in-migration . In general, lower fertilit y

and net in-migration has resulted in higher shares in the urban

- 2 1-

working age population, particularly in the northern quadrant s

(Table 3) . The opposite conditions resulted in the low share s
for the rural working age population, especially in the Non Slavic South, where both high fertility and declining infan t
mortality have depressed the share in the working age population .
It is worthy of note that since 1970 the trend in the total ,
urban, and rural working age population has been a marke d
increase in its share of the total, urban, and rural populations .
These patterns in age distribution further demonstrate th e
major dichotomy with respect to demographic processes that exist s
between the Non-Slavic South and the regions to the north or th e
European areas of the USSR . In addition to the differences i n
age structure, the European areas are characterized by low rate s
of natural

increase and population

growth,

high

rates

of

urbanization and urban growth, high levels of urbanization, hig h

and intensifying rates of rural depopulation, and high rates o f
Characteristic feature : cf the Non-Slavic Sout h
include moderate to high rates of natural increase and populatio n
growth, low rates of urbanization but high rates of urban growth ,
rural

population growth,

particularly in

Central

Asia,

predominantly rural population, and a relatively immobile rura l

population . Although the Non-Slavic South contains only one fifth

of the

Soviet

population,

between

1970

and 1979 i t

accounted for 44 .1 percent of the total population growth, s o

there has been a redistribution of population to the Non-Slavi c
South, where the percentage of the total Soviet population

- 22-

increased from 15 .6 to 20 .7 between 1959 and 1979 .

With respect to the working age population, however, ther e
is a definite trend toward convergence in the level between th e
Non-Slavic South and the northern areas . For example, betwee n
1980 and 1990, the Non-Slavic South will account for an estimate d
72 .8 percent of the growth of the total working age population o r
7 .4 million, if migration is not considered, whereas in th e
remainder of the USSR it will increase by only 2 .7 million . Th e
respective average annual growth rates are 2 .6 and 0 .2 percent .
If the 1970-79 migration pattern of little or no net migratio n
between the Non-Slavic South and the remainder of the countr y
persists, these estimates should be fairly reliable . In th e
absence of migration, 61 .0 percent of the increase in the rura l
population of working age between 1980 and 1990, or 5 .5 million ,
would be accounted for by the Non-Slavic South, where it woul d
grow 3 .7 percent per year in contrast to 0 .8 percent per yea r
elsewhere in the USSR . The urban working age population of th e
Non-Slavic South would increase by 1 .9 million, or 1 .4 percen t
per year, without migration, and would decline by 754,000 in th e
remainder of the USSR . The crux of the situation is that no t
only will the working age population of the USSR grow slowly, 0 . 7
percent per year in the 198 0 ' s, but the geographic distributio n
of this growth will be unfavorable for economic development i n
that it will be concentrated in the rural areas of the Non-Slavic

-2 3South . 2
Tables 4-12 present our estimates of the age distribution o f
the Soviet population in 1979 and change since 1970 by the sam e
gross age categories, but with more regional detail and the se x
component . In general, the influence of migration is greater a t
the economic-region scale than at the quadrant scale . Th e
demographic dichotomy between the northern regions and th e
southern tier is particularly obvious at this scale of analysis .
The pervasive decline in the total young dependents betwee n
1970 and 1979 reflects the pervasive decline in fertility in th e
USSR in the past 20 years (Table 4) . In regions of highe r
fertility, the percentage of the population 0-19 was higher tha n
in regions of low fertility (Map 1) . For example, in Centra l
Asia young dependents comprised almost a half of the tota l
population, whereas in the northern areas this cohort varied fro m
about one-fourth to one-third . Young dependents accounted for a
larger percentage of the total male population than female s
comprised of the total female population, largely because o f
higher male mortality and war losses . The pervasive increase i n
old

dependents

was much less than the

decline

in youn g

dependents, and the disparity in the share for males and female s
was particularly wide, again reflecting differences in mortalit y
(Table 5) . The lowest levels were registered in the regions o f

2 Robert A . Lewis, " Regional Manpower Resources and Resourc e

Development in the USSR :
1970-1990,"
in Soviet Natura l
Resources in the World Economy, eds . Robert G . Jensen, Theodor e
Shabad, and Arthur W . Wright (Chicago : The University of Chicag o
Press, 1983), pp . 72-96 .

-2 4-

the southern tier where fertility was the highest, and in region s
of net in-migration (Map 2) . There was also a pervasive rise i n
the population of working age (Table 6) . Higher levels reflec t
lower fertility and in-migration (Map 3) . Regions of relativel y
high levels of fertility, such as Central Asia, have notably lo w
levels of their total population in the working ages . Th e
disparity in levels, of course, has implication for economi c
development and dependency .
As to urban and rural patterns in age distribution (Table s
7-12 and Maps 4-9), the young dependents in rural region s
generally comprised a greater share of the rural population i n
1979 than they comprised of the urban population, because o f
higher fertility, and this rural share was particularly high -i n
Central Asia . The decline since 1970 was greater in rural area s
than urban, because of greater declines in fertility and out migration . The levels of old dependents were the highest by fa r
in rural northern areas and the charge between 1970 and

1 97 9 wa s

greater reflecting once again net out-migration in addition t o

relatively low fertility . The working age population wa s
especially high in the northern urban regions and rising betwee n
1970

and

1979,

considerable

largely

net

as a result of low

in-migration .

Because

fertility

the

working

an d
ag e

population in the USSR closely approximates the work force, i n

that participation rates are generally high for both sexes ,
variations in levels of the working age population are goo d
indicators of labor supply .

-2 5In summary, the total, urban, and rural shares of th e

working age population rose appreciably since 1897 in al l
quadrants except the Non-Slavic South, where the share decline d
despite a significant rise between 1970 and 1979 . The share o f
the young dependents in the total, urban, and rural categorie s
declined sharply since 1897 in all quadrants except the non Slavic South, where it remained high despite a decline betwee n
1970 and 1979 . Since 1897, there has been an appreciable rise i n
the share of old

dependents

in all

quadrants

and in al l

categories . The overall trends between 1970 and 1979 were a

sharp decline in the share of young dependents, a sharp increas e
in the share of the population of working age, and a moderat e
increase in the share of old dependents in all quadrants ,
regions, and categories for both sexes .

Implication s
The USSR s not an exceptional case wi t h

respect

4- r.

th e

demographic change associated with modernization and its impac t

on society . Our research makes possible for the first tim e
investigation of trends over time in Soviet age structure for th e
census years on a regional basis for the total, urban, and rura l
populations, including 1979 for which almost no data have bee n
published . Our research provides no basis for dire prediction s
of demographic crisis in the USSR . What has occurred in the USS R
with respect to changes in age distribution is essentially wha t
has occurred in other modernized countries . The overall change

-2 6that has occurred in the Soviet age structure has been primaril y
related to fertility decline, although mortality decline and wa r
have had some effect .
A conceptual knowledge of demographic processes is necessar y
to understand the implications of population change on a society ,
because demographic variables are interrelated and interrelat e
with the socioeconomic and natural environment . These comple x
interrelationships

are the

essence

of

demography .

An

understanding of how demographic processes interrelate provide s

insight into and is essential to the analysis of the societa l
implications of population change . Thus, societal implication s
must

be analyzed

conceptually and comparatively,

and th e

universal experience is a major guide to what will happen i n

modernizing countries .
If significance in the social sciences is defined in term s
of increasing our understanding of ourselves and the society an d
the world around us, then a knowledge of basic demographi c
processes

is

essential,

because

these

processes

involv e

fundamental aspects of human experience and comprise a majo r

force shaping any society . We are born, we age, we go to school ,
we reproduce, we move, we die . The most momentous and pivota l
events in human history have been the dramatic declines i n
mortality and fertility and the rapid urbanization of societ y
that have affected virtually all aspects of society and ou r
lives .
The major consequences of the changing patterns of fertilit y
and mortality associated with modernization are drastic changes

- 27-

in the age and ethnic composition of societies . The principa l

reason why a knowledge of demographic processes is essential t o
understanding societal change - aside from the obvious fact tha t
they are interrelated - is that so many aspects of society ar e
age-specific, and include such crucial events as birth, death ,
marriage, migration, work-force participation, education, crime ,
consumption, voting, retirement, and life style . Consequently ,
major shifts in age distribution commonly resulting from decline s
primarily in fertility, but also mortality, can have desirable o r
undesirable effects on a society . Ethnic differentials i n
fertility

and

mortality,

which

ultimately

converge

wit h

modernization, affect the differential growth of ethnic group s

within

multinational

states,

and

most

countries

ar e

multinational . Such differential growth can lead to ethni c

tension and change voting patterns in democratic societies .
Thus, in addition to economic, political, geographic, and socia l
factors, demographic forces sha p e a societ y

and must be

studie d

if we are to understand society and make guarded forecasts as t o

future trends .
Even though virtually every social or economic problem facin g
a country has a demographic dimension, one must avoid what migh t
be termed "demographic determinism" in appraising the effects o f
population change on a society, because demographic processe s
interrelate with a variety of societal factors . That is,

on e

must avoid exaggerating the influence of population change, an d

realize that these processes are interrelated, very complex, and

- 2 8-

should not be oversimplified or overstated .

With respect to the impact of population change on society ,
one should think more in terms of demographic influences, som e
favorable and some unfavorably, than demographic determinants ,
and avoid the dire analysis and crisis mentality that is s o
characteristic of demographic writing on the USSR in the West .
Tables 13 and 14 present summary age data for components of th e
working age population from which we can isolate some of th e
influences of recent changes in age composition in the

USSR .

In

our analysis of the effect of changes in age distribution on th e

working age population between 1970 and 1979, our purpose is t o
stress both the advantage and disadvantages of such change, an d
to avoid the pervasive tendency in the press and elsewhere t o
analyze population trends in the
demographic

determinism,

USSR

in terms of a crud e

which exaggerates the effects o f

population change in Soviet society to the point of a demographi c

crisis, and features only the disadvantages of population change .
If one assumes that more workers and fewer dependents ar e
advantageous

to

economic

development,

consumption,

an d

production, the overall change in the age structure that occurre d

between 1970 and 1979 was favorable for Soviet society, becaus e
the share of the population in the working ages, which in th e
USSR clearly approximates the work force, rose in all populatio n
categories and quadrants (Tables 13 and 3) . For the tota l
population, it rose more than three percentage points to about 5 4
percent . The young and old dependents combined declined to th e
same degree that the working age population increased, so the

- 2 9-

dependency burden decreased during this period (Table 1 and 3) .

The share of the young dependents declined much more than th e
share of the old dependents rose, which accounts for the declin e
in the share of the combined category . For the total population ,
the young dependents decreased by more than four percentag e
points, whereas the old dependents increased by about on e
percentage point . Even if the cost per dependent of supportin g
old dependents exceeded the cost of supporting young dependent s
as in the United States, the mix of the change in dependenc y
would appear to be favorable . 3

If per capita expenditure s

remained the same, one would expect that expenditures fo r

education and other consumption related to the young woul d
decline more than expenditures for retirement, medicine and othe r
needs of the older population would increase .
If the age-specific mortality rates had remained the sam e
during this period, the crude death rate of the USSR and mos t
parts would have risen, because there was an aging of th e
population . There was, however, a rise in reported age-specifi c
mortality rates, although it is questionable how much of the ris e
was real and how much was the result of improvements i n
reporting . Because there was only a slight change in the shar e
of the women in the prime reproductive years (Table 13) and ther e
was an increase in the total population of the USSR, a sligh t

3 Robert L . Clark and Joseph J . Spengler, The Economics o f

Individual and Population Aging (New York : Cambridge Universit y
Press, 1980), pp . 28-48 .

- 3 0decline in the crude birth rate could be expected, even i f

fertility remained constant . There was, however, a genera l
decline in fertility in the 1970 ' s, even in Central Asia .
Changes in the composition of the working age population ca n
also affect economic development and production, if a more o r
less productive cohort or component increases its share of th e
working age population . The overall trend in the USSR betwee n
1970 and 1979 was an aging of the population of working age . I f
experience is emphasized, this change was favorable, if highe r
levels of education are emphasized, the change was unfavorable .
Considering the great increase in levels of education since Worl d
War II, particularly in non- European areas, and the increasin g
educational requirements of a modern economy, it would appea r
that the aging of the working age population that occurre d
between 1970 and 1979 is an unfavorable influence and it may hav e
adversely affected productivity .
The change in the ratio of the new entrants to and th e
departures from the work force is approximated by the 10-19 a s
opposed to the 50-59 cohort, even though there is no adjustmen t
for mortality and not all enter or leave the work force in thes e
ages (Tables 13 and 14) . There were sharp declines in this rati o
between 1970 and 1979, reflecting the declining shares of the ne w
entrants relative to departures, and this trend is estimated t o
continue in the 1980 's when the growth of the working ag e
population will be less than half that of the 197 0s. However,i n
1979 the 10-19 cohort was still more than 50 percent higher tha n
the 50-59 cohort for the total, urban, and rural population .

-3 1 -

This ratio was particularly high in the Non-Slavic South, whic h

in the 1980's will contribute about three-fourths of the growt h
of the native working age population .
The changes in the ratio of the cohorts 10-19 and 20-59 by
quadrant and population category further indicate the declinin g
share of the new entrants relative to the working age populatio n
during the 1970-79 period, although the potential new migrant s
comprised about one-third of the 1979 total working ag e
population (Tables 13 and 14) . On the other hand, the changes i n
the ratio of the 50-59 and 20-59 cohorts show an increase in th e
older component of the working age population, which constitute d
about 20 percent of the total working age population in 1979 ,
although shares were lower in urban and higher in rural areas .
The ratios of the 20-29 to the 50-59 cohort, however, show a n
increasing share for the younger cohort not affected by wa r
relative to the older which was greatly affected the war .
Moreover, the younger cohort had an appreciably higher share tha n
the older in 1979 (Table 14) . The ratio of the 20-39 to the 40 59 divides the working age population in half, and changes i n
this ratio further support the aging of the working ag e
population in all quadrants and categories . The low ratios i n
rural areas largely reflect net out-migration . The 1979 ratio s
indicate that to a significant degree declines in fertility hav e
offset the effect of war and subsequent mortality , because th e
levels of the two cohorts were reasonably close in 1979 .
In summary, the outstanding trends in age distribution in

-3 2the USSR between 1970 and 1979 were the increasing share of th e
population comprised by the working age population, the aging o f
the working age population, and the concomitant decline in th e
dependency burden . Although virtually all socioeconomic dat a
contain error and these trends are partially based on estimates ,
it is felt that the data are sufficiently accurate to distinguis h
the basic trends in age distribution in the USSR and thei r
magnitude . Furthermore, the changes that have occurred ar e
expected in that they are consistent with demographic theory an d
historical events that have affected the age distribution .
Moreover, our estimates by five-year age groups permit a furthe r
refinement of these trends, as well as age trends back to 1897 .
As to the impact of the age trends between 1970 and 1979 o n
Soviet society, it is difficult to define with precision, but th e
increasing share of the population in the working ages wa s
probably economically advantageous, even though the aging of th e
working age population was not . Suffice it to say, however ,
these changes have not resulted in a demographic crisis .

PRELIMINARY, NOT TO BE CITE D

WITHOUT PERMISSIO N

Table 1

PERCENT OF THE TOTAL, URBAN, AND RURAL POPULATIONS COMPRISED BY YOUNG DEPENDENT S
BY QUADRANT : 1897-197 9

PERCENTAGE POINT CHANG E

PERCENT COMPRISED BY
0-19 Cohort

18971926

19261959

19591970

19701979

1897 197 9

1897

1926

1959

1970

1979

Northern European USSR

48 .31

47 .25

35 .13

33 .85

29 .11

-1 .06 -12 .12

-1 .28

-4 .74 -19 .2 0

European Steppe

50 .81

49 .63

34 .87

34 .81

30 .17

-1 .18 -14 .76

-0 .06

-4 .64 -20 .6 4

Russian East

47 .61

50 .33

40 .13

39 .40

34 .23

2 .72 -10 .20

-0 .73

-5 .17 -13 .3 8

Non-Slavic South

45 .23

46 .18

44 .05

50 .20

46 .02

0 .95

USSR Total

48 .2 5

47 .95

37 .43

38 .09

Northern European USSR

38 .63

38 .30

32 .68

European Steppe

43 .76

40 .76

Russian East

39 .24

Non-Slavic South
USSR Tota l

Total Population

-2 .13

6 .15

-4 .18

0 .7 9

33 .71

-0 .30 -10 .52

0 .66

-4 .38 -14 .5 4

32 .04

28 .47

-0 .33

-5 .62

-0 .64

-3 .57 -10 .1 6

32 .41

32 .70

28 .79

-3 .00

-8 .32

0 .29

-3 .91 -14 .9 7

43 .90

37 .84

36 .70

32 .51

4 .66

-6 .06

-1 .14

-4 .19

-6 .7 3

40 .48

42 .81

40 .02

43 .79

41 .21

2 .33

-2 .79

3 .77

-2 .58

0 .7 3

39 .86

39 .92

34 .76

34 .90

31 .38

0 .06

-5 .16

0 .14

-3 .52

-8 .4 8

Northern European USSR

49 .69

49 .27

37 .16

36 .22

30 .52

-0 .42 -12 .11

-0 .94

-5 .70 -19 .1 7

European Steppe

52 .07

51 .93

37 .57

37 .85

32 .61

-0 .14 -14 .36

0 .28

-5 .24 -19 .4 6

Russian East

48 .29

51 .52

43 .08

44 .24

38 .29

3 .23

-8 .44

1 .16

-5 .95 -10 .0 0

Non-Slavic South

45 .81

46 .86

46 .81

55 .48

51 .52

1 .05

-0 .05

8 .67

-3 .96

USSR Total

49 .42

49 .73

39 .89

42 .20

37 .97

0 .31 -10 .84

2 .31

-4 .23 -11 .45

Urban Population

Rural Population

5 .7 1

The quadrants in this table are composed of the following 1961 economic regions . Norther n
European USSR : Northwest, West, Center, Volga-Vyatsk, Central Chernozem, Volga, Belorussia, an d
the Southwest . European Steppe : Moldavia, South, Donetsk-Dnepr, and the North Caucasus .
Russian East : Ural, West Siberia, East Siberia, and the Far East . Non-Slavic South :
Transcaucasus, Kazakhstan, and Central Asia .

PRELIMINARY, NOT TO BE CITE D

WITHOUT PERMISSIO N

Table 2

PERCENT OF THE TOTAL, URBAN, AND RURAL POPULATIONS COMPRISED BY OLD DEPENDENT S
BY QUADRANT : 1897-197 9

PERCENTAGE POINT CHANG E

PERCENT COMPRISED .BY

60-PLUS COHORT
1897

1926

1959

1970

1979

18971926

19261959

19591970

19701979

1897 197 9

Northern European USSR

7 .16

7 .32

10 .39

13 .66

14 .76

0 .16

3 .07

3 .27

1 .10

7 .6 0

European Steppe

6 .04

5 .94

9 .91

12 .93

13 .96

-0 .10

3 .97

3 .02

1 .03

7 .9 2

Russian East

7 .48

6 .68

7 .16

9 .36

10 .44

-0 .80

0 .48

2 .20

1 .08

2 .9 6

Non-Slavic South

6 .34

6 .55

8 .82

8 .67

9 .52

0 .21

2 .27

-0 .15

0 .85

3 .1 8

USSR Tota l

6 .92

6 .91

9 .44

11 .81

12 .76

-0 .01

2 .53

2 .47

0 .95

5 .8 4

Northern European USSR

6 .66

6 .39

8 .42

11 .37

12 .44

-0 .27

2 .03

2 .95

1 .07

5 .7 8

European Steppe

6 .07

5 .65

8 .73

11 .80

12 .78

-0 .42

3 .08

3 .07

0 .95

6 .7 1

Russian East

7 .10

5 .19

6 .08

8 .58

9 .55

-1 .91

0 .89

2 .50

0 .97

2 .4 5

Non-Slavic South

5 .96

6 .09

7 .23

8 .12

8 .56

0 .13

1 .14

0 .89

0 .44

2 .6 0

USSR Tota l

6 .50

6 .07

7 .79

10 .38

11 .30

-0 .43

1 .72

2 .59

0 .92

4 .8 0

Northern European USSR

7 .23

7 .53

12 .01

16 .65

19 .19

0 .30

4 .48

4 .64

2 .54

11 .9 6

European Steppe

6 .04

6 .02

11 .20

14 .56

16 .06

-0 .02

5 .18

3 .36

1 .50

10 .0 2

Russian East

7 .51

6 .96

8 .56

10 .74

12 .51

-0 .55

1 .60

2 .18

1 .77

5 .0 0

Non-Slavic South

6 .38

6 .65

9 .91

9 .12

10 .41

0 .27

3 .26

-0 .79

1 .29

4 .0 3

USSR Total

6 .98

7 .10

10 .95

13 .65

15 .20

0 .12

3 .85

2 .70

1 .55

8 .22

Total Populatio n

Urban Population

Rural Population

The quadrants in this table are composed of the following 1961 economic regions . Norther n
European USSR : Northwest, West, Center, Volga-Vyatsk, Central Chernozem, Volga, Belorussia, an d
the Southwest . European Steppe : Moldavia, South, Donetsk-Dnepr, and the North Caucasus .
Russian East : Ural, West Siberia, East Siberia, and the Far East . Non-Slavic South :
Transcaucasus, Kazakhstan, and Central Asia .

PRELIMINARY, NOT TO BE CITE D

WITHOUT PERMISSION

Table 3

PERCENT OF THE TOTAL, URBAN, AND RURAL POPULATIONS COMPRISED BY WORKING AG E

COHORT, BY QUADRANT :
1897-197 9

PERCENT COMPRISED BY
20-59 Cohort

PERCENTAGE POINT CHANG E

1897

1926

1959

1970

1979

18971926

19261959

19591970

19701979

1897 197 9

Northern European USSR

44 .54

45 .43

54 .48

52 .48

56 .13

0 .88

9 .05

-2 .00

3 .65

11 .5 9

European Steppe

43 .15

44 .43

55 .20

52 .25

55 .87

1 .28

10 .77

-2 .59

3 .62

12 .7 2

Russian East

44 .91

42 .99

52 .70

51 .24

55 .33

-1 .92

9 .71

-1 .46

4 .09

10 .4 2

Non-Slavic South

48 .43

47 .21

47 .13

41 .13

44 .46

-1 .16

-0 .14

-6 .00

3 .33

-3 .97

USSR Tota l

44 .83

45 .14

53 .13

50 .10

53 .53

0 .31

7 .99

-3 .03

3 .43

8 .7 0

Northern European USSR

54 .71

55 .31

58 .90

56 .59

59 .09

0 .60

3 .59

-2 .31

2 .50

4 .38

European Steppe

50 .17

53 .59

58 .86

55 .50

58 .43

3 .42

5 .27

-3 .36

2 .93

8 .26

Russian East

53 .66

50 .91

56 .08

54 .72

57 .94

-2 .75

5 .17

-1 .36

3 .22

4 .2 8

Non-Slavic South

53 .56

51 .10

52 .75

48 .10

50 .23

-2 .46

1 .65

-4 .65

2 .13

-3 .3 3

USSR Tota l

53 .6 4
i

54 .01

57 .44

54 .72

57 .32

0 .37

3 .43

-2 .72

2 .60

3 .68

Northern European USSR 43 .08

43 .20

50 .83

47 .14

50 .29

0 .12

-2 .37

-3 .69

3 .15

7 .2 1

European Steppe

41 .89

42 .05

51 .23

47 .59

51 .33

0 .16

9 .18

-3 .64

3 .74

9 .4 4

Russian East

44 .20

41 .52

48 .36

45 .02

49 .20 -2 .68

6 .84

-3 .34

4 .18

5 .0 0

Non-Slavic South

47 .81

46 .49

43 .28

35 .40

38 .07

-1 .32

-3 .21

-7 .88

2 .67

-9 .7 4

USSR Total

43 .60

43 .16

49 .16

44 .15

46 .83

-0 .44

6 .00

-5 .01

2 .68

3 .23

Total Populatio n

Urban Population

Rural Population

The quadrants in this table are composed of the following 1961 economic regions . Norther n
European USSR : Northwest, West, Center, Volga-Vyatsk, Central Chernozem, Volga, Belorussia, an d
the Southwest . European Steppe : Moldavia, South, Donetsk-Dnepr, and the North Caucasus .
Russian East : Ural, West Siberia, East Siberia, and the Far East . Non-Slavic South :
Transcaucasus, Kazakhstan, and Central Asia .

Preliminary, Not to be Cite d

Without Permissio n

Table 4
PERCENT OF THE TOTAL POPULATION COMPRISED BY YOUNG DEPENDENT S
BY ECONOMIC REGION :
1970-197 9
Percent Comprised by
0-19
Cohort :
1979
Total
Male
Female

Percentage Point Chang e

1970-1979
Total
Mal e
Femal e

Northwest

29 .43

36 .61

26 .72

-3 .18

-0 .17

-2 .4 2

West

26 .86

29 .24

24 .78

-4 .66

-5 .61

-3 .8 8

Central

26 .85

30 .58

23 .85

-4 .10

-5 .25

-3 .2 3

Volga-Vyatsk

34 .60

39 .26

30 .76

-2 .86

-3 .72

-2 .3 0

Central Chernozem

29 .33

33 .58

25 .94

-5 .45

-6 .69

-4 .4 6

Volga

32 .97

36 .88

29 .72

-3 .47

-4 .10

-2 .9 7

Belorussia

33 .35

36 .58

30 .53

-4 .19

-5 .19

-3 .4 1

Moldavia

38 .09

40 .48

35 .95

-3 .74

-4 .53

-3 .1 0

Southwest

29 .00

32 .50

26 .06

-4 .89

-5 .97

-4 .0 7

South

30 .30

33 .39

27 .62

-2 .89

-3 .57

-2 .3 6

Donetsk-Dnepr

28 .87

31 .91

26 .33

-3 .32

-4 .34

-2 .5 2

North Caucasus

32 .06

35 .33

29 .24

-5 .14

-5 .79

-4 .6 1

Transcaucasus

42 .88

45 .22

40 .70

-4 .20

-4 .92

-3 .5 6

Urals

36 .38

39 .86

33 .35

-3 .00

-3 .74

-2 .4 5

West Siberia

35 .42

38 .59

32 .62

-3 .56

-4 .23

-3 .0 4

East Siberia

36 .47

37 .88

35 .12

-4 .88

-5 .44

-4 .4 0

Far East

34 .24

34 .70

33 .76

-3 .05

-3 .83

-2 .3 2

Kazakh

43 .28

45 .48

41 .22

-3 .98

-4 .46

-3 .5 5

Central Asia

49 .88

51 .39

48 .40

-4 .19

-4 .78

-3 .68

Preliminary, Not to be Cite d

Without Permissio n

Table 5

PERCENT OF THE TOTAL POPULATION COMPRISED BY OLD DEPENDENT S

BY ECONOMIC REGION :
1970-197 9
Percent Comprised by
60-PLUS Cohort :
1979
Total
Male
Female

Percentage Point Chang e

1970-197 9
Total
Male
Femal e

Northwest

12 .16

6 .85

16 .69

0 .58

-0 .20

1 .3 4

West

17 .40

13 .02

21 .22

1 .27

0 .11

2 .3 2

Central

14 .81

8 .91

19 .55

0 .90

0 .15

1 .5 6

Volga-Vyatsk

13 .57

7 .78

18 .34

1 .11

0 .25

1 .9 6

Central Chernozem

16 .53

10 .27

21 .52

1 .53

0 .55

2 .3 2

Volga

13 .67

8 .16

18 .26

1 .16

0 .21

1 .9 8

Belorussia

14 .62

10 .63

18 .10

1 .49

0 .64

2 .2 9

Moldavia

10 .54

8 .33

12 .52

0 .81

0 .20

1 .3 9

Southwest

15 .89

11 .50

19 .59

1 .19

0 .42

1 .9 2

South

13 .36

9 .36

16 .82

0 .92

0 .04

1 .6 6

Donetsk-Dnepr

14 .43

9 .83

18 .29

0 .86

-0 .20

1 .8 1

North Caucasus

14 .28

9 .37

18 .51

1 .17

-0 .13

2 .3 2

Transcaucasus

10 .52

8 .21

12 .68

0 .98

0 .47

1 .4 8

Urals

11 .45

6 .72

15 .57

0 .94

0 .16

1 .7 0

West Siberia

10 .91

6 .61

14 .71

1 .00

0 .22

1 .7 6

East Siberia

8 .32

5 .52

11 .00

0 .63

0 .15

1 .1 6

Far East

6 .47

4 .10

8 .92

0 .25

-0 .05

0 .6 7

Kazakh

9 .13

6 .52

11 .57

0 .89

0 .41

1 .3 5

Central Asia

9 .21

7 .69

10 .70

0 .80

0 .49

1 .15

Preliminary, Not to be Cite d

Without Permissio n

Table 6
PERCENT OF THE TOTAL POPULATION COMPRISED BY WORKING AGE COHOR T
BY ECONOMIC REGION :
1970-197 9
Percent Comprised by
20-59 Cohort :
1979
Mal e
Female
Total

Percentage Point Chang e

1970-1979

Total

Mal e

Femal e

Northwest

58 .41

60 .54

56 .59

2 .60

4 .37

1 .0 8

West

55 .74

57 .74

54 .00

3 .39

5 .50

1 .5 6

Central

58 .34

60 .51

56 .60

3 .20

5 .11

1 .6 8

Volga-Vyatsk

51 .83

52 .95

50 .90

1 .75

3 .46

0 .3 5

Central Chernozem

54 .14

56 .15

52 .54

3 .92

6 .14

2 .1 4

Volga

53 .36

54 .96

52 .02

2 .31

3 .89

0 .9 9

Belorussia

52 .03

52 .79

51 .37

2 .70

4 .55

1 .1 2

Moldavia

51 .37

51 .19

51 .53

2 .93

4 .33

1 .7 1

Southwest

55 .11

56 .01

54 .35

3 .70

5 .56

2 .1 5

South

56 .35

57 .25

55 .56

1 .98

3 .46

0 .7 0

Donetsk-Dnepr

56 .70

58 .27

55 .39

2 .46

4 .55

0 .7 2

North Caucasus

53 .66

55 .31

52 .24

3 .97

5 .93

2 .2 8

Transcaucasus

46 .60

46 .57

46 .62

3 .22

4 .45

2 .0 8

Urals

52 .17

53 .43

51 .10

2 .06

3 .58

0 .7 6

West Siberia

53 .67

54 .80

52 .68

2 .56

4 .01

1 .2 9

East Siberia

55 .21

56 .60

53 .88

4 .25

5 .29

3 .2 4

Far East

59 .29

61 .20

57 .32

2 .80

3 .88

1 .6 5

Kazakh

47 .59

48 .00

47 .21

3 .09

4 .05

2 .2 0

Central Asia

40 .91

40 .92

40 .90

3 .39

4 .29

2 .53

Preliminary, Not to be Cite d

Without Permissio n

Table 7

PERCENT OF THE URBAN POPULATION COMPRISED BY YOUNG DEPENDENT S

BY ECONOMIC REGION :
1970-197 9
Percent Comprised by
0-19 Cohort :
1979
Total
Male
Female

Percentage Point Chang e

1970-1979
Total
Mal e
Femal e

Northwest

29 .41

32 .22

26 .99

-1 .64

-2 .39

-1 .0 7

West

29 .38

29 .93

25 .48

-1 .31

-3 .97

-2 .4 4

Central

27 .08

30 .47

24 .34

-2 .86

-3 .75

-2 .1 7

Volga-Vyatsk

34 .73

38 .22

31 .76

0 .25

-0 .23

0 .5 6

Central Chernozem

30 .95

34 .17

28 .32

-2 .29

-2 .90

-1 .6 8

Volga

32 .48

35 .86

29 .68

-1 .37

-1 .69

-1 .0 6

Belorussia

31 .50

33 .74

29 .50

-5 .17

-5 .83

-4 .6 0

Moldavia

36 .96

38 .84

35 .26

-0 .06

-0 .54

0 .3 2

Southwest

30 .94

33 .71

28 .50

-1 .88

-2 .44

-1 .4 1

South

30 .00

32 .73

27 .61

-0 .86

-1 .31

-0 .5 0

Donetsk-Dnepr

30 .35

32 .82

28 .23

-2 .28

-3 .01

-1 .6 8

North Caucasus

30 .27

33 .05

27 .89

-2 .81

-3 .27

-2 .4 1

Transcaucasus

40 .20

42 .72

37 .85

-2 .06

-2 .76

-1 .4 2

Urals

35 .66

38 .62

33 .07

-0 .93

-1 .51

-2 .4 9

West Siberia

34 .47

36 .98

32 .24

-1 .85

-2 .33

-1 .4 9

East Siberia

35 .36

36 .77

34 .02

-2 .66

-3 .22

-2 .1 9

Far East

33 .86

34 .46

33 .25

-2 .15

-3 .02

-1 .3 5

Kazakh

38 .97

41 .42

36 .74

-2 .89

-2 .78

-2 .9 5

Central Asia

44 .37

46 .31

42 .51

-2 .35

-3 .04

-1 .74

Preliminary, Not to be Cite d

Without Permissio n
Table 8

PERCENT OF THE URBAN POPULATION COMPRISED BY OLD DEPENDENT S

BY ECONOMIC REGION :
1970-197 9
Percent Comprised by
60-PLUS Cohort :
1979
Total
Male
Female

Percentage Point Chang e

1970-197 9
Total
Male
Femal e

Northwest

10 .91

6 .07

15 .07

0 .37

-0 .28

1 .0 0

West

14 .41

9 .02

17 .43

1 .99

0 .22

1 .8 8

Central

13 .40

8 .07

17 .72

0 .78

0 .01

1 .4 2

Volga-Vyatsk

10 .94

6 .30

14 .88

0 .57

-0 .40

1 .1 7

Central Chernozem

12 .58

8 .33

16 .03

0 .94

0 .31

1 .3 3

Volga

11 .85

6 .84

16 .01

0 .83

0 .02

1 .4 7

Belorussia

9 .88

6 .75

12 .66

1 .60

0 .91

2 .2 2

Moldavia

8 .92

6 .73

10 .89

0 .21

-0 .20

0 .6 0

Southwest

11 .73

8 .15

14 .88

0 .58

0 .01

1 .1 0

South

12 .33

8 .63

15 .56

0 .49

-0 .20

1 .1 3

Donetsk-Dnepr

12 .20

8 .18

15 .65

0 .73

-0 .19

1 .5 5

North Caucasus

13 .44

9 .04

17 .21

0 .54

-0 .60

1 .5 1

9 .32

7 .02

11 .44

0 .40

-0 .03

0 .7 9

10 .11

5 .70

13 .95

0 .55

-0 .11

1 .2 1

West Siberia

9 .83

6 .40

12 .89

0 .66

-0 .03

1 .3 3

East Siberia

7 .41

4 .50

10 .16

0 .33

-0 .02

0 .7 1

Far East

6 .24

3 .70

8 .83

0 .16

-0 .09

0 .5 1

Kazakh

8 .29

5 .36

10 .97

0 .66

0 .08

1 .1 5

Central Asia

8 .25

6 .23

10 .17

0 .36

0 .06

0 .66

Transcaucasus
Urals

Preliminary, Not to be Cite d

Without Permissio n

Table 9
PERCENT OF THE URBAN POPULATION COMPRISED BY WORKING AGE COHOR T
BY ECONOMIC REGION :
1970-197 9
Percent Comprised by
20-59 Cohort :
1979
Total
Mal e
Femal e

Percentage Point Chang e

1970-1979

Total

Mal e

Femal e

Northwest

59 .68

61 .71

57 .94

1 .27

2 .66

0 .0 7

West

56 .21

61 .05

57 .09

-0 .68

3 .75

0 .5 6

Central

59 .52

61 .46

57 .94

2 .08

3 .74

0 .7 5

Volga-Vyatsk

54 .34

55 .49

53 .36

-0 .81

0 .28

-1 .7 4

Central Chernozem

56 .48

57 .49

55 .65

1 .36

2 .59

0 .3 4

Volga

55 .67

57 .30

54 .31

0 .54

1 .67

-0 .4 0

Belorussia

58 .63

59 .51

57 .84

3 .58

4 .92

2 .3 8

Moldavia

54 .12

54 .43

53 .84

-0 .15

0 .74

-0 .9 3

Southwest

57 .33

58 .14

56 .62

1 .30

2 .43

0 .3 1

South

57 .68

58 .64

56 .83

0 .38

1 .52

-0 .6 3

Donetsk-Dnepr

57 .45

59 .00

56 .12

1 .55

3 .21

0 .1 3

North Caucasus

56 .29

57 .91

54 .90

2 .27

3 .87

0 .8 9

Transcaucasus

50 .48

50 .26

50 .71

1 .66

2 .79

0 .6 3

Urals

54 .24

55 .68

52 .97

0 .38

1 .63

-0 .7 3

West Siberia

55 .70

56 .63

54 .87

1 .20

2 .37

0 .1 5

East Siberia

57 .23

58 .73

55 .81

2 .33

3 .23

1 .4 7

Far East

59 .90

61 .84

57 .93

2 .00

3 .09

0 .8 5

Kazakh

52 .74

53 .22

52 .29

2 .23

2 .70

1 .8 0

Central Asia

47 .38

47 .46

47 .32

1 .99

2 .98

1 .08

Preliminary, Not to be Cite d

Without Permissio n

Table 1 0
PERCENT OF THE RURAL POPULATION COMPRISED BY YOUNG DEPENDENT S
1970-197 9
BY ECONOMIC REGION :
Percent Comprised by
0-19 Cohort :
1979
Total
Male
Female

Percentage Point Chang e

1970-1979
Femal e
Total
Mal e

Northwest

29 .51

34 .13

25 .70

-7 .39

-8 .78

-6 .3 6

West

25 .56

27 .94

23 .48

-7 .08

-8 .17

-6 .1 8

Central

25 .97

31 .04

22 .03

-7 .61

-9 .16

-6 .5 2

Volga-Vyatsk

34 .39

41 .08

29 .17

-6 .42

-7 .20

-5 .9 2

Central Chernozem

27 .55

32 .91

23 .35

-8 .26

-9 .62

-7 .3 1

Volga

34 .03

39 .10

29 .81

-6 .29

-7 .06

-5 .7 4

Belorussia

35 .61

40 .16

31 .76

-2 .59

-3 .37

-2 .0 5

Moldavia

38 .82

41 .55

36 .39

-5 .24

-6 .09

-4 .5 6

Southwest

27 .26

31 .36

23 .94

-7 .30

-8 .66

-6 .3 2

South

30 .81

34 .52

27 .63

-5 .47

-6 .40

-4 .8 0

Donetsk-Dne pr

23 .95

28 .70

20 .29

-7 .09

-8 .69

-5 .9 8

North Caucasus

34 .21

38 .04

30 .89

-7 .03

-7 .79

-6 .4 3

Transcaucasus

46 .17

48 .33

44 .19

-5 .95

-6 .71

-5 .2 6

Urals

38 .07

42 .77

33 .99

-6 .19

-6 .86

-5 .7 1

West Siberia

37 .52

42 .18

33 .45

-5 .98

-6 .66

-5 .4 8

East Siberia

38 .82

40 .22

37 .46

-7 .83

-8 .34

-7 .3 7

Far East

35 .46

35 .44

35 .47

-5 .39

-5 .84

-4 .9 3

Kazakh

48 .31

50 .10

46 .59

-4 .40

-5 .66

-3 .2 9

Central Asia

55 .61

54 .85

52 .45

-2 .97

-5 .46

-4 .48

Preliminary, Not to be Cited

Without Permissio n

Table 1 1

PERCENT OF THE RURAL POPULATION COMPRISED BY OLD DEPENDENT S

BY ECONOMIC REGION :
1970-197 9
Percent Comprised by
60-PLUS Cohort :
1979
Total
Male
Female

Percentage Point Chang e

1970-197 9
Total
Male
Femal e

Northwest

16 .96

9 .89

22 .78

2 .53

0 .86

4 .0 0

West

24 .66

20 .48

28 .31

3 .53

2 .01

4 .9 0

Central

20 .13

12 .15

26 .34

2 .85

1 .49

4 .0 3

Volga-Vyatsk

17 .93

10 .36

23 .83

3 .14

1 .43

4 .5 4

Central Chernozem

20 .88

12 .45

27 .48

3 .64

1 .53

5 .4 1

Volga

17 .60

10 .99

23 .11

2 .87

1 .32

4 .2 6

Belorussia

20 .43

15 .51

24 .60

3 .56

2 .20

4 .8 0

Moldavia

11 .59

9 .37

13 .57

1 .38

0 .67

2 .0 5

Southwest

19 .64

14 .65

23 .67

2 .69

1 .61

3 .6 6

South

15 .10

10 .62

18 .93

1 .84

0 .80

2 .8 1

Donetsk-Dnepr

21 .85

15 .64

26 .64

2 .84

1 .01

4 .3 4

North Caucasus

15 .28

9 .76

20 .09

1 .97

0 .40

3 .4 1

Transcaucasus

12 .03

9 .67

14 .20

1 .83

1 .20

2 .4 1

Urals

14 .59

9 .10

19 .35

2 .42

1 .25

3 .5 1

West Siberia

13 .28

7 .08

18 .68

2 .12

0 .76

3 .3 9

East Siberia

10 .27

7 .67

12 .80

1 .62

0 .96

2 .3 2

7 .21

5 .35

9 .24

0 .64

0 .18

1 .1 8

10 .11

7 .84

12 .31

1 .24

0 .88

1 .6 7

9 .89

8 .68

11 .06

1 .16

0 .85

1 .48

Far East
Kazakh
Central Asia

Preliminary, Not to be Cite d

Without Permissio n

Table 1 2

PERCENT OF THE RURAL POPULATION COMPRISED BY WORKING AGE COHOR T

1970-197 9
BY ECONOMIC REGION :
Percent Comprised by
20-59 Cohort :
1979
Total
Mal e
Femal e

Percentage Point Chang e

1970-1979
Total

Mal e

Femal e

Northwest

53 .53

55 .98

51 .52

4 .86

7 .92

2 .3 6

West

49 .78

51 .58

48 .21

3 .55

6 .16

1 .2 8

Central

53 .90

56 .81

51 .63

4 .76

7 .67

2 .4 8

Volga-Vyatsk

47 .69

48 .57

47 .00

3 .29

5 .78

1 .3 7

Central Chernozem

51 .57

54 .64

49 .17

4 .62

8 .09

1 .9 1

Volga

48 .37

49 .91

47 .09

3 .42

5 .74

1 .5 0

Belorussia

43 .96

44 .33

43 .64

-0 .97

1 .17

-2 .7 5

Moldavia

49 .59

49 .07

50 .04

3 .85

5 .41

2 .5 1

Southwest

53 .11

53 .99

52 .39

4 .62

7 .06

2 .6 7

South

54 .10

54 .87

53 .44

3 .64

5 .62

1 .9 8

Donetsk-Dnepr

54 .20

55 .67

53 .07

4 .25

7 .69

1 .6 5

North Caucasus

50 .50

52 .20

49 .02

5 .05

7 .39

3 .0 2

Transcaucasus

41 .80

42 .00

41 .61

4 .13

5 .51

2 .8 5

Urals

47 .34

48 .13

46 .66

3 .77

5 .61

2 .1 9

West Siberia

49 .21

50 .73

47 .88

5 .86

5 .89

2 .1 0

East Siberia

50 .90

52 .11

49 .73

6 .20

7 .39

5 .0 4

Far East

57 .34

59 .21

55 .28

4 .76

5 .66

3 .7 4

Kazakh

41 .57

42 .06

41 .10

3 .15

4 .78

1 .6 2

Central Asia

34 .50

36 .47

36 .49

1 .81

4 .61

3 .00

Preliminary, Not to be Cite d

Without Permissio n
Table 1 3
Percentage Point Change in Select Age Cohorts :

1970-197 9

Percentage Point Chang e

Working-Age
Population

10-19
50-59

10-19
20-59

50-59
20-59

20-29
50-59

Female s
20-39 20-4 4
40-59 Tota l
Female s

TOTAL POPULATION
Northern European USSR

3 .65

-57 .5

-6 .1

3 .5

10 .3

-14 .8

-0 .7 0

European Steppe

3 .62

-57 .0

-6 .3

3 .4

10 .0

-14 .9

-0 .5 1

Russian East

4 .09

-71 .7

-5 .5

3 .1

9 .5

-16 .6

-0 .1 1

Non-Slavic South

3 .33

-82 .0

-4 .6

2 .4

9 .5

-16 .2

0 .7 2

USSR Total

3 .43

-60 .5

-5 .4

3 .2

10 .9

-14 .8

-0 .4 1

Northern European USSR

2 .50

-57 .2

-5 .0

3 .2

4 .1

-16 .5

-1 .8 0

European Steppe

2 .93

-56 .0

-5 .3

3 .4

6 .4

-16 .0

-1 .2 0

Russian East

3 .22

-65 .2

-4 .0

3 .0

5 .3

-15 .7

-0 .9 5

Non-Slavic South

2 .13

-72 .7

-4 .4

2 .4

7 .0

-15 .6

-0 .1 8

2 .60

-59 .6

-4 .7

3 .1

5 .4

-16 .4

-1 .3 3

Northern European USSR

3 .15

-59 .9

-6 .8

5 .1

6 .8

-19 .3

-1 .6 0

European Steppe

3 .74

-58 .8

-7 .5

3 .9

10 .2

-16 .2

-0 .3 5

Russian East

4 .18

-85 .0

-7 .9

4 .1

8 .8

-19 .0

0 .1 1

Non-Slavic South

2 .67

-88 .6

-4 .1

2 .5

11 .6

-17 .0

0 .9 9

2 .68

-60 .2

-5 .5

3 .8

11 .5

-15 .9

-0 .51

URBAN POPULATION

USSR Total
RURAL POPULATION

USSR total

Preliminary, Not to be Cite d

Without Permissio n

Table 1 4
Components of the Working Age Population :

197 9

Cohort Ratio s

10-19
50-59

10-19
20-29

50-59
20-59

20-29
50-59

20-39
40-59

Female s
20-4 4
Total Female s

TOTAL POPULATIO N
Northern European USSR

1 .295

0 .285

0 .220

1 .425

1 .063

0 .34 4

European Steppe

1 .270

0 .282

0 .222

1 .391

1 .071

0 .34 4

Russian East

1 .897

0 .363

0 .191

1 .780

1 .278

0 .35 8

Non-Slavic South

2 .931

0 .490

0 .167

2 .094

1 .469

0 .31 6

USSR Total

1 .623

0 .334

0 .206

1 .573

1 .163

0 .34 1

Northern European USSR

1 .349

0 .266

0 .197

1 .708

1 .220

0 .37 9

European Steppe

1 .292

0 .269

0 .208

1 .563

1 .161

0 .36 8

Russian East

1 .898

0 .340

0 .179

2 .011

1 .396

0 .38 2

Non-Slavic South

2 .429

0 .403

0 .166

2 .190

1 .507

0 .35 8

1 .575

0 .301

0 .191

1 .796

1 .279

0 .37 4

Northern European USSR

1 .211

0 .325

0 .268

0 .982

0 .792

0 .27 8

European Steppe

1 .235

0 .309

0 .250

1 .112

0 .915

0 .30 2

Russian East

1 .895

0 .424

0 .224

1 .289

1 .014

0 .30 1

Non-Slavic South

3 .517

0 .594

0 .169

1 .982

1 .425

0 .22 7

1 .699

0 .399

0 .235

1 .219

0 .968

0 .286

URBAN POPULATIO N

USSR Total
RURAL POPULATIO N

USSR total

Map 1

Percent of Total Population Aged 0-19 : 1979

Map

Percent of Total Population Aged 60 and Over : 1979

Map

Percent of

Total

Population Aged 20-59 : 1979

Map

Percent of Urban Population Aged 0-19 :

1979

Map 5 Percent of Urban Population Aged 60 and Over : 1979

Map

Percent of Urban Population Aged 20-59 : 1979

Map 7

Percent of Rural Population Aged 0-19 : 1979

Map 8

Percent of Rural Population Aged 60 and Over : 1979

Map 9

Percent of Rural Population Aged 20-59 : 1979