Exercises.

1. A manufacturing company has two retail outlets, A and B. It is known that 30% of the

potential customers buy products from outlet A alone, 50% buy from outlet B alone, 10% buy
from both A and B, and 10% buy from neither. Let A denote the event that a potential
customer, randomly chosen, buys from A and B denote the event that the customer buys from
B. Find the following probabilities:
(a) Pr( A) ;
(b) Pr( A B ) ;
(c) Pr(B ) ;
(d) Pr( A B ) ;
(e) Pr( A B ) ;
_____

(f ) Pr( A B ) .

Solution (a) We use the following diagram

Neither
A nor B

A alone

Both A and B

B alone

From this diagram one can see that the fraction of potential customers that related A is the
sum of the fractions of potential customers A alone and both A and B.
So, Pr( A) = 0.3 + 0.1 = 0.4
(b) From the same diagram one can see that the fraction of customers related to the unit of A
and B is the sum of the fractions of potential customers A alone, B alone and both A and
B.
So, Pr( A B) = 0.3 + 0.5 + 0.1 = 0.9
(c) The fraction of customers corresponding to B is the sum of fractions that includes all
potential customers except B, that is the sum of the fractions of potential customers A
alone, neither A nor B.
So, Pr(B ) = 0.3 + 0.1 = 0.4
(d) The fraction of the potential customers both A and B is shown in the diagram explicitly
and defined in the problem formulation.

So, Pr( A B) = 0.1

(e) To find the probability of the event in this question, let us first understand what the events
A and B are. The event A is associated with the unit (sum) of the events B alone and
neither A nor B. In turn, the event B is associated with the unit (sum) of the events A
alone and neither A nor B. We are to take product of these events, that is the common
event that includes both A and B . Clearly, that this common event is neither A nor B, and
the fraction of potential customers associated with this event is given in the problem
formulation.
So, Pr( A B ) = 0.1

(f) Let us find first what the event

_____
A B

is. This event is opposite (complementary) to the event A B . The last event is the unit (sum)
of the events A alone, B alone and both A and B (see the solution for (b)), and the
complementary event to it is the event neither A nor B. Hence, comparing with the result in
(e), we have the property:
_____
A B = A B .
So,
_____
Pr( A B ) = Pr( A B ) = 0.1
2. Resistors produced by a certain firm are marketed as 10-ohm resistors. However, the actual
resistances of the resistors may vary. It is observed that 5% of the values are below 9.5 ohms
and 10% are above 10.5 ohms. If two of these resistors, randomly selected, are used in a
system, find the probability that
(a) both have actual values between 9.5 and 10.5 ohms;
(b) at least one has an actual value in excess of 10.5 ohms.
Solution (a) To solve this problem, let us draw the following diagram
10% Above the level of 10.5
Level 10.5

Level 9.5

5% Below the level of 9.5

First find the probability that a randomly selected resistor will be within the indicated bounds.
The fraction of resistors that are within the bounds is 100 10 5 = 85 per cent. Since the
two selections are independent, we obtain that the probability that both resistors have actual
values between 9.5 and 10.5 ohms is 0.850.85 = 0.7225
In (b), in order to find the probability that at least one has an actual value in excess of 10.5
ohms, let us first find the probability of the opposite event is that none has an actual value in
excess of 10.5 ohms. The last event means that in each of two independent selections the
value of resistor was not greater than 10.5 ohm. For a randomly selected resistor this
probability is 1 0.1 = 0.9. Then, for two randomly selected resistors the probability that
none has an actual value in excess of 10.5 ohms is 0.90.9 = 0.81
Hence, the probability of the required event is that at least one has an actual value in excess
of 10.5 ohms is 1 0.81 = 0.19
3. A special dart board has three annular zones formed by four concentric circles of radius 1,
2, 3 and 4 units respectively. The zones are labelled A (the smallest) to D. If a dart is thrown
at random at the board and hits it, the probabilities of hitting the four zones are presented in
Table 2.1.
(a) Show how to calculate the probabilities from Table 2.1
Table 2.1: Zones
Zone X
A
B
C
D
Pr(X = x) 0.0625 0.1875 0.3125 0.4375
(b) Calculate:
(i) Pr(X = C or D);
(ii) Pr(X = A or B or C);
(iii) Pr(X = A or D).
Solution (a) According to convention A :=1, B:=2, C:=3 and D:=4. So, the probabilities
Pr( X = x) , x = 1,2,3,4 are given from the table. First, we have to check that the values
Pr( X = x) in the bottom row of the table really define the probabilities. For these positive
numbers we are only to check that their sum is equal to 1. We have:
0.0625+0.1875+0.3125+0.4375 = 1. So, Table 2.1 is defined correctly. From this table, we,
for instance, can define cumulative probability distribution as Pr( X x), x = 1,2,3,4 .
(b) Since X is a discrete random variable (in the given case it is an integer random variable)
the probabilities are calculated by the rule:
Pr(X = C or D) = Pr(X=C) + Pr(X=D) = Pr(X=3) + Pr(X=4) =0.3125 + 0.4375 = 0.75
Pr(X = A or B or C) = Pr(X=1) + Pr(X=2) + Pr(X=3) = Pr(X4) = 1 0.4375 = 0.5625
Pr(X = A or D) = Pr(X=1) + Pr(X=4) = 0.0625 + 0.4375 = 0.5

4. A box contains 100 items, 2 of which are faulty. If 2 items are selected at random from the
box, without replacement, calculate the probabilities that 0, 1 or 2 of the selected items are
faulty.
Solution Selection of two items at random can be presented as selection of items one by one
independently. That is, there are two consecutive selections each of them is independent of
one another. Find first Pr(0), the probability that no faulty items are selected. This occurs
only in the case when (i) in the first selection we do not select faulty and (ii) in the second
one a faulty item is not selected either.
98
The probability of the event in (i) is 100
(the total number of items is 100 and the number of
true items is 98, so for the definition of the probability we divide 98 by 100). The probability
of the event in (ii) (given that previously the event in (i) occurs) is equal to 97
(the total
99
number of items is now 99, and the number of true items is 97, so we divide 97 by 99).
Since both of the selections (trials) are independent, we finally obtain:
Pr (0) =

98
100

97
0.960202
99

By the similar way one can find Pr (2), the probability that two faulty items are selected. This
occurs only in the case when (i) in the first selection we select faulty item and (ii) in the
2
second one we select faulty item too. The probability of the event in (i) is 100
and the
1
probability of the event in (ii) is 99 . Since both of the trials are independent, we obtain:
Pr (2) =

2
100

991 0.000202

Let us now find Pr (1), the probability that only one faulty item is selected. Keeping in mind
that Pr (0) + Pr (1) + Pr (2) = 1, we obtain:
Pr(1) = 1 Pr(0) Pr(2) 1 0.000202 0.960202 = 0.039596
Another way of finding Pr (1): We suggest another way to find Pr (1), leading to the concept
of the total probability formula. The event after two selections at random there is only 1
faulty item can occur in the following two mutually exclusive situations:
(i)
(ii)

the first selected item is faulty, but the second is true;

the first selected item is true, but the second is faulty.

So, the aforementioned event after two selections at random there is only 1 faulty item occurs
given under the conditions such as the first selected item is faulty and the first selected item is
true. Denoting the first event A and the second event B we have the following two condition
probabilities Pr (1|A) and Pr (1|B). These condition probabilities are the probability that after
two selections there will be one faulty item given (A) the first selected item is faulty and the
probability that after two selections there will be one faulty item given (B) the first selected
item is true. Then, the probability Pr (1) is calculated by the so-called formula for the total
probability: Pr (1) = Pr (1|A) Pr (A) + Pr (1|B) Pr (B). Let us substitute the values. We have:
Pr (1|A) =

98
99

, Pr (1|B) = 992 , Pr (A) =

2
100

, Pr (B) =

98
100

. So,

Pr (1) =

98
99

98
2
0.039596
100
+ 992 100

This result coincides with the result that was obtained before differently.
5. An electronic components manufacturer submits tenders to three separate companies for
work over the next month. From past experience, the contracts manager estimates that the
probability that each tender will be accepted is as in Table 2.2. Assuming that the tenders are
assessed independently of each other, calculate the probability that:
(a) all tenders are accepted;
(b) at least one tender is accepted;
(c) only tenders A and C are accepted.
Table 2.2: Tender
Company
A
B
C

Probability tender is accepted

0.8
0.6
0.9

Solution Since all tenders are assessed independently of each other, we use the formula for
multiplication of probabilities.
(a) We have Pr(ABC) = Pr(A) Pr(B) Pr(C) = 0.80.60.9 = 0.432
(b) First we have to find the probability of the event that none of tenders is accepted. We
obtain:
Pr( A B C ) = Pr( A ) Pr( B ) Pr(C ) = (1 0.8)(1 0.6)(1 0.9) = 0.2 0.4 0.1 = 0.008 .
Then, the required probability is equal to 1 0.008 = 0.992
(c) We have Pr( AB C ) = Pr( A) Pr( B ) Pr(C ) . The probabilities Pr( A) and Pr(C ) are given
from the table. For the probability Pr(B ) we have Pr( B ) = 1 Pr( B) = 0.4 . So,
Pr( AB C ) = 0.8 0.4 0.9 = 0.288

6. If a random sample of 3 items from a consignment contains 1 or more faulty items then the
consignment will be rejected.
(a) What is the probability that a consignment of 100 items with 1 faulty item is rejected?
(b) What is the probability that a consignment of 100 items with 8 faulty items is
accepted?

Solution (a) We select 3 items from a random sample of 100 items. Let A be the event that
consignment of 100 items with 1 faulty item is rejected. The event A can occur with one of the
following 3 exclusive events:
B1 - the first item in series of 3 is faulty;
B2 - the second item in series of 3 is faulty;
B3 - the third item in series of 3 is faulty.
By the total probability formula,
Pr( A) = Pr( A | B1 ) Pr( B1 ) + Pr( A | B2 ) P( B2 ) + Pr( A | B3 ) Pr( B3 ) .

In our case, Pr( A | B1 ) = 1 , Pr( A | B2 ) = 1 , Pr( A | B3 ) = 1 ,

99
99
98
1
1
1
, Pr( B2 ) = 991 100
, Pr( B3 ) = 981 100
= 100
99
= 100
.
Pr( B1 ) = 100
Note, that all of the three conditional probabilities Pr( A | B1 ) , Pr( A | B2 ) and Pr( A | B3 ) are the
probabilities of true event: under the condition that faulty item is selected, the consignment is
known must be rejected.
1
1
1
So, Pr( A) = 100
+ 100
+ 100
= 0.03

In (b), we have to use the multiplication rule. The probability that consignment is accepted is
the probability of the following event: in the first, second and third trials we select true item.
Let A be the event that consignment is accepted, and let B1 , B2 and B3 denote the events that
in the first, second and third trial we select a true item, respectively. We have:
92
91
, Pr( B2 ) = 99
, Pr( B3 ) = 90
, and
Pr( B1 ) = 100
98
92
91
Pr( A) = Pr( B1 ) Pr( B2 ) Pr( B3 ) = 100
99
90
98 0.776623

7. An electronic component consists of four switches connected in parallel. Each switch may
fail, independently of the others, with probability 0.02. What is the probability that the
component fails?
Solution From the scheme below one can see that the chain fails only in the case where all of
its components fail.

Hence, the chain fails with probability 0.02 4

8. The probability that a component function must be at least 0.999. If the component is
constructed of several identical items in parallel, how many are needed if each has a failure
probability of:
(a) 0.1;
(b) 0.01?

Solution The probability a chain fails is 1 0.999 = 0.001. In case (a) where the probability
of an item failure is 0.01 we obtain the equation
0.1n = 0.001

So, taking logarithms from the both parts, we have n log 0.1 = log 0.001 . Hence,
n=

log 0.001
= 3.
log 0.1

In case (b), 0.01n = 0.001 . Then, n log 0.01 = 0.001 , and n =

The number of items must be integer, while

3
2

log 0.001 3
= .
log 0.1
2

is a fraction. Hence, the number of items

guaranteeing the necessary reliability of the system must be equal to 2, which is the smallest
integer that greater than 32 .
9. A particular model of jet engine will fail in flight with probability p. A twin-engine plane
will crash only if both engines fail together. A four-engine plane will crash if three or four
engines fail together. Assuming that engines fail independently of each other, calculate:
(a) the probability that a twin-engine plane will crash;
(b) the probability that a four-engine plane will crash;
(c) the values of p for which a twin-engine plane is less likely to crash than a four-engine
plane.
Solution (a) A twin-engine plane will crash only if both engines crash in flight, so there is
probability p 2 that such a plane will crash in flight.
In the case of four-engine plane in (b), the plane crashes in each of the following cases as (i)
three engines fail, or (ii) four engines fail.
The probability that three engines fail is found from Binomial distribution Bin(p, 4) as
4 3
p (1 p ) = 4 p 3 (1 p ) . The probability that all four engines fail is p 4 . So, the probability
3
that a four-engine plane crashes is 4 p 3 (1 p ) + p 4 .
For (c) one have to solve the equation p 2 < 4 p 3 (1 p ) + p 4 . Dividing by p 2 we have the
following inequality 1 < 4 p (1 p ) + p 2 . Solve first the quadratic equation p 2 + 4 p (1 p ) = 1 ,
or, after a little algebra, 3 p 2 4 p + 1 = 0 . The roots of this equations are p = 13 and p = 1 . So,
we obtain that for the inequality p >

1
3

and p < 1 .

10. A satellite system consists of several components of type A in parallel, in series with
several components of type B in parallel. Type A will fail with probability 0.1 and type B
will fail with probability 0.2, all independently of each other.
(a) Show that the requirement that the system will fail with probability less than 0.01 can be
met using 3 of each type.
(b) If type A weighs 1 kg and type B weighs 2 kg, what is the composition of the most
reliable system that weighs 11 kg or less?

Solution Consider the following diagram

There are two blocks in series; each of them is a parallel scheme. The fail probability in the
first block is 0.13 = 0.001 and the fail probability in the second block is 0.2 3 = 0.008 . Since
the two blocks in this scheme are in series, there is the fail probability that the system fails
0.001 + 0.008 = 0.009 < 0.01 . This means that the system of two blocks in series each
consisting of three components will fail with probability that less than 0.01
For solution of (b) note that the second block cannot contain less than three components. If
there are only two components then the second block fails with probability 0.04 and hence
the failure probability of the system will be greater than 0.009 when each system consists of
three blocks. The similar situation arises when the number of components in the first block is
less than three. If there are only two components here, the first block fails with probability
0.01, and the probability that the system fails will be greater than 0.01 . Hence, the possible
options are available only when each block consists of at least 3 components. The only two
variants are available here as there are 5 components in the first block and 3 in the second
versus 3 components in the first block and four in the second one. In the first case the fail
probability is 0.15 + 0.2 3 = 0.00801 , while in the second case the fail probability is
0.13 + 0.2 4 = 0.0026 . The second fail probability is smaller, and hence it is the smallest
probability obeying the requiring constraints.
11. If A and B are independent events, are A and B also independent? Explain.
Solution By independence, Pr(AB)=Pr(A)Pr(B). As well Pr( AB ) = Pr( A) Pr( AB) . Hence,
Pr( AB ) = Pr( A) Pr( A) Pr( B ) = Pr( A)[1 Pr( B)] = Pr( A) Pr( B ). So, A and B are
independent.
12. Can two events (each with non-zero probability) be both mutually exclusive and
independent? Explain.
Solution If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then Pr( A B) = 0 . So, if Pr(A) >0 and
Pr(B)>0, then the equality Pr(AB)= Pr(A)Pr(B) is not satisfied (left-hand side is zero while the
right-hand side is strictly positive).