Binomial and Poisson Distribution

1a) The probability that a sharp shooter hits a target is 0.8 and the
probability that he misses in 0.2. Find the probability that, in 10 shots, he
will hit the target
(i) 6 times
(ii) more than 8 times
(b) A lousy shooter has a probability of 0.1 of hitting the target. How many
shots must he be given in order that there is at least a 90% chance that he
will hit the target at least once?
2) A crossword puzzle is published in The Times each day of the week,
except Sunday. A man is able to complete on average 8 out of 10 of the
crossword puzzles.
(i) Find the expectation and the standard deviation of the number of
completed crossword puzzles in a given week.
(ii) Show that the probability that he will complete at least 5 in a given
week is 0.655 to 3sf.
(iii) Find the probability that in a period of four weeks, he completes fewer
than 5 crossword puzzles in one of the four weeks.
3) In Singapore, 1 out of 5 primary one students are myopic. A random
sample size of n is taken to study the problem of myopia among Singapore
students. Find the least value of n, such that the probability of getting at
least 2 myopic students in the sample is greater than 0.96.
4) A newly discovered drug is used to treat patients infected with measles.
However, it was found that proportion p of these patients will suffer from
an allergic reaction.
(i) In a clinical trial, a group of n patients were treated with the drug. The
random variable X denotes the number of patients, out of n, who
developed allergic reactions to the drug. Given that E(X)=4 and
Var(X)=3.68, find the probability that more than 4 of the patients develop
an allergic reaction.
(ii) 25 such clinical trials were performed throughout the world. The drug
will be approved for use by the general population if there were at most 10
clinical trials, which have at most 4 patients developing an allergic
reaction. Determine the probability of the drug being approved.
5) At the hot drinks counter in a cafeteria both tea and coffee are sold.
The number of cups of coffee sold per minute may be assumed to be a
Poisson variable with mean 1.5 and the number of cups of tea sold per
minute may be assumed to be an independent Poisson variable with mean
0.5.
(i) Find the probability that in a given one-minute period exactly one cup of
tea and one cup of coffee are sold.

(ii) Find the probability that in a given one-minute period exactly 2 cups of
drinks are sold.
(iii) Find the probability that in a given three-minute period fewer than 5
drinks altogether are sold.
(iv) In a given one-minute period exactly three drinks are sold. Find the
probability that these are all cups of coffee.
6) In the manufacture of glass panels, small bubbles occur at random at
an average of 1 bubble in every 2 glass panels. The number of bubble
detected in a panel is denoted by X and follows a Poisson distribution.
(i) Show that, in a randoly chosen glass panel, the probability that there
are at least three bubbles is 0.0144, corrected to 3sf.
(ii) A box contains 15 such glass panels. Inspections are carried out at
random to ensure quality. A box is rejected if it contains at least 2 glass
panels with at least 3 bubbles each. Find the probability that a randomly
chosen box is rejected.
(iii) 100 randomly chosen boxes are inspected. Find, by using a suitable
approximation, the probability that more than 98 boxes are not rejected.
7) A large number of tickets are sold in a lotery. Each ticket can win either
a small prize or a large prize, but no ticket can win two prizes. 10% of
tickets win a small prize and 0.1% of tickets win a large prize.
(i) If Charlie has 20 tickets, find the probability that
(a) he wins at least 1 prize, (b) he wins at most 3 prizes.
(ii) If Mary has 400 tickets, use a suitable approximation to find the
proability that she wins at most 2 large prizes.

More Practice: Binomial and Poisson Distributions

1) In order to determine whether to accept a large batch of manufactured
articles, a sample of 20 is inspected. The batch is accepted if there is
no defective article in the sample and it is rejected if there are 2 or
more. If there is exactly 1 defective article, a second sample of 20 is
examined and the batch is accepted if the second sample contains no
defects. Otherwise, the batch is rejected.
Calculate the probability that the batch is accepted given that it in fact
contains 1% defective articles. Find also the expected number of
articles sampled.
2) A shop sells a particular make of radio at a rate of 4 per week on
average. The number sold in a week is thought to follow a Poisson
distribution.
(i)
Find the probability that the shop sells at least 2 radios in a
week.
(ii)
Find the smallest number of radios that should be in stock at the
beginning of the week in order to have at least an 80% chance of
meeting the demand for that week.
3) Each week a security firm transports a large sum of money between
two places. The day on which the journey is made is varied at random,
and in any week each of the five days from Monday to Firday is equally
likely to be chosen.
(i)
Calculate the probabilty that, in a period of 10 weeks, Friday will
be chosen at least 3 times.
(ii)
The event that, in a 4 week period, the same day is chosen on all
four occasions is denoted by S.Show that the probability of S
occurring is 0.008. Use an appropriate approximation to estimate
the proability that, in 100 non-overlapping 4 week periods, the
event S will occur at least 3 times.
4) A shopkeeper hires vacuum cleaners to the general public at $5 per
day. The mean daily demand is 2.6.
(i)
Calculate the expected daily income from this activity assuming
an unlimited supply of vacuum cleaners are available.
(ii)
The demand follows a Poisson distribution. If only three vacuum
cleaners are available for hire, calculate the mean of the daily
income.
(iii)
A nearby large store is willing to lend vacuum cleaners at a short
notice to the shopkeeper, so that in practice she will always be
able to meet any demand. The store would charge $2 per day for
this service regardless of how many, if any, cleaners are actually
borrowed. Would you advise the shopkeeper to take up this
offer? Explain your answer.

5) The management of a hospital noticed that the number of people

entering the pharmacy per minute follows a Poisson distribution with
mean 3 and the number of people leaving that pharmacy per minute
follows an independent Poisson distribution with mean 1. Find the
probability that during a particular minute on a certain day,
a. Exactly one person will enter and exactly two persons will leave
the pharmacy
b. Exactly one person will enter the pharmacy given that the
number of persons entering and leaving that pharmacy in a
minute is exactly five.
The management also noticed that when a gynaecologist sees a
patient, the probability that the consultation time exceeds 15
minutes is 0.44 and the probability that a patient needs an injection
after he is seen by the gynaecologist is 0.002.
c. If the gynaecologist sees 10 patients in all, find the probability
that the consultation time exceeds 15 minutes each for at least
2 patients.
d. Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that exactly
one patient in each of three groups of 1000 patients needs an
injection.
6) A randomly chosen doctor in general practice sees, on average, one
case of a broken nose per year and each case is independent of other
similar cases.
a. Regarding a month as a twelfth part of a year,
i. Show that the probablity that, between them, three such
doctors see no cases of a broken nose in a period of one
month is 0.779, correct to 3sf.
ii. Find the variance of the number of cases seen by three
such doctors in a period of six months.
b. Find the probability that, between them, three such doctors see
at least three cases in one year.
c. Find the probability that, of three such doctors, one sees three
cases and the other two see no cases in one year.
7) A customer buys metal sheets in large batches from a manufacturer,
from which 10 sheets are selected at random and inspected by an
inspector. Assume that the probability that a sheet is defective is
0.065. The inspector rejects the batch if there are 2 or more defectives
among the 10 sheets selected. Show that the probability that the
inspector accepting a batch is 0.866, correct to 3sf.
To confirm the decision, another inspector follows the same procedure
with another random 10 shets. If the two inspectors findings agree,
then the batch is accepted or rejected as the case may be. If they
disagree, a further sample of 10 is chosen. The batch is then rejected if
there is more than 1 defective among the 10 sheets.
Find:
a. the probability that the batch is eventually accepted

b. the expected number of sheets examined per batch, given that

E(X) xP(X x)

for any random variable X.