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Abstract
Unconventional petroleum resource plays present unique
assessment challenges. These large, single accumulations
cannot be counted and analysed as discrete entities that are
delineated by down-dip water contacts. Equally important, the
main assessment challenge relates to exploitation risks and
uncertainties. This paper presents an integrated stochastic
assessment framework for decisions related to shale gas
resource plays. The shale gas resource play is modelled as a
set of discrete cells that have not been explored (exploited)
and that have the potential for economic production. The
distinctive aspect of the modelling tool is the use of stochastic
simulation to calculate the risks of failure in either the
exploration, the appraisal/pilot, or the exploitation phases of
the project on the basis of both sub-surface uncertainties and
above-surface activity performance, cost and duration
uncertainties. The tool also generates stochastic performance
metrics that capture alternative outcome scenarios, economic
returns and the delivery schedule of production and reserves.
The performance metrics support both project-level and
portfolio-level decisions related to unconventional resource
plays. Project-level application is illustrated using data from a
Canadian shale gas resource play.
Introduction
Unconventional petroleum assets are large single
accumulations. They form a geologically diverse group, but
include coal-bed methane (CBM), tight gas and fractured shale
gas.
All unconventional petroleum assets share some
important characteristics:
they are often very large
accumulations, many of the largest accumulations are known
in the sense that we know where they are: The assets cannot
be counted and analysed as discrete entities that are delineated
by down-dip water contacts (Schmoker, 1999) as are
conventional accumulations and fields. They are therefore
also frequently referred to as continuous accumulations.
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Resource Play
Exploration & Exploitation
Technology
Investment
Exploration for
Sweet Spot
Single Cell
drilling & production
Resource Play
HC & AT Cash Flows
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The two reservoirs capture the same bulk rock volume and the
overall resources are then the stochastic summation of the
resources with 100% correlated bulk volumes (see Figure 5).
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Concluding discussion
Figure 7. Overall cash flow from sweet spot project (in million
USD)
References
Donovan, W.S., 2001, Coalbed Methane Content Determined with
Mudlogging Methods: abstract, The Outcrop, RMAG
Newsletter, 50, 11, November 2001.
Haskett, W.J., P. J. Brown, 2005, Evaluation of Unconventional
Resource Plays, SPE 96879, SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and
Evaluation Symposium 2005.
Roche, P., 2006, Liberation Play, New Technology Magazine,
Oct/Nov.
Schmoker, J.W., 1999, U.S. Geological Survey assessment model for
continuous (unconventional) oil and gas accumulatins the
FORSPAN model: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 2168,
Accessed December 1999.
Schmoker, J.W., 2002, Resource-assessment perspectives for
uncoventional gas systems, AAPG Bulletin, 86, 11, November,
pp. 1993-1999.
U.S. Geological Survey National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment
Team, 1995, 1995 national assessment of United States oil and
gas resources: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1118, 20 p.
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