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CE 326: Transportation

Planning
TRIP GENERATION

Travel Demand

Most transportation trips are derived demand

Trips are a function of the activities that they serve

Some recreational transportation trips may not be derived demand

Demand can be induced when changes to infrastructure or services reduce


the cost of transportation

The Four Step Model

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Predict origin-destination flows from zone to zone

Mode Choice

Determine the number of person or vehicle trips to and from different land uses
in an analysis zone

Predict the share of users who will choose to travel using each available mode

Trip Assignment

Allocate trips to specific routes

Modeling Challenges

Future conditions predicted from


historic data

Land Use

Transportation network

Traffic

Steps are iterative

http://www.mwcog.org/transportation/images/
4step.gif

Trip Generation

FOUR STEP MODEL BASICS

ESTIMATING PRODUCTIONS

Household Surveys

Minimum Sample Size

Cross Classification

Linear Regression

ESTIMATING ATTRACTIONS

Trip Rate Analysis

CONVERTING PRODUCTIONS
AND ATTRACTIONS TO
ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS

Trip Ends: Productions and Attractions

A production is a trip-end connected with a residential land use in a zone

Estimated as a function of socieconomic characteristics of a zone or household

Demographic Data
Household Survey

Trip Rates

Productions

An attraction is a trip-end connected to a non-residential land use in a zone

Estimated as a function of the availability and intensity of non-residential opportunities in


a zone

Land Use Data


Workplace/Special
Generator Surveys

Trip Rates

Attractions

Estimating
Productions

HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS

MINIMUM SAMPLE SIZE

CROSS CLASSIFICATION

LINEAR REGRESSION

Household Surveys

Household surveys results are used to estimate trip rates as a function of


household characteristics

National Household Travel Survey

Regional Household Surveys

Household Surveys

Performed about every 10 years

Trips

Frequencies

Distances

Household characteristics

Demographics

Vehicle Ownership

Normal Distribution

Normal distribution is symmetric about


the mean

For a two-tailed distribution:

1 std. dev. : 68.3% of values

1.96 std. dev. : 95.0% of values

3 std. dev. : 99.7% of values

Z is the number of standard deviations


corresponding to a specific
confidence level

Estimated vs. True Value

The values calculated using sample data provide only an estimate of the
true mean and standard deviation

Central Limit Theorem

For a large sample size, has approximately a normal distribution


regardless of the shape of the distribution

Standard Error of the Mean

The std. dev. of the sample mean (or standard error) is given by:

where N is the population size, n is the sample size, and 2 is the population
variance

For a single sample, the best estimate of the population variance is the
sample variance

For large populations and small sample sizes, (N-n)/N approaches one, so:

Estimating Sample Size

To estimate the required sample size for an infinite population, we


rearrange the equation to:

Then, if necessary, we correct for finite population size:

Sample Size Determination

Estimating sample size for a population parameter is a function of 3


variables

Variability

Desired degree of precision

Population size

Sampling error can be reduced by increasing sample size

However, budget constraints may limit sample size

Must assume a best estimate sample variance (standard deviation)

*Except in surveys of very small populations, it is the number of


observations in the sample, rather than the sample size as a percentage
of the population, which determines the precision of the sample
estimates.*

Confidence Level and Confidence


Interval

In order to determine the statistical validity of an estimate, we must first


define the desired precision level

The precision level is the degree of confidence(percent p) that the sampling


error of a produced estimate will fall within a desired range

The confidence level is often defined in terms of the level of significance,


= (100-p)

We must also define the acceptable range of error of an estimate (x-)

Absolute: a fixed number

Relative: defined as a percentage of the true value

Standard Normal Distribution

In a standard normal distribution,


= 0
= 1

The sample mean is distributed normally with parameters x and standard


error( ).

We can convert this variable to a standard normal variable, z, using the


formula:

Replacing x and in the z equation, we get:

National Household Travel Survey Data


Data Year: 2009, New York State, MSA > 3 Million
Household # Household
Households (in
Person Trips (in
Size
Vehicles
thousands)
millions)
1
0
840.24
985.82
1
1
484.38
799.21
1
2
46.14
86.54
1
3
3.14
4.56
1
4+
1.04
1.76
2
0
469.87
1258.04
2
1
412.02
1133.13
2
2
394.28
1205.86
2
3
58.85
165.81
2
4+
24.11
54.22
3
0
230.85
922.58
3
1
245.84
1151.81
3
2
229.96
1028.99
3
3
140.73
702.47
3
4+
24.95
137.28
4
0
124.35
596.94
4
1
184.99
1128.8
4
2
208.61
1317.7
4
3
83.71
576.72
4
4+
53.12
340.37
5
0
128.59
642.82
5
1
108.78
891.47
5
2
98.78
777.46
5
3
40.91
297.47
5
4+
22.91
165.24

Cross-Classification

Trip rates are derived from survey data and cross-classified with one or
more individual variables to estimate trip rates

Number of categories increases exponentially with the number of


variables included

Cross-Classification Example

Linear Regression

Used to estimate trips as a linear function of household, individual, or land


use variables

For one independent variable (Y) and one dependent variable (X)

Linear Regression Example

Method of Least Squares

We want to determine the values of a and


b that minimize S

At the minimum, the partial derivatives of S


with respect to a and b will be equal to
zero

Setting the derivatives equal to zero and


solving the equations simultaneously yields
formulas for a and b

Sum of Squared Residuals

The residual is an error term that accounts for the difference between an
observed value and its model estimate

The sum of squared residuals is a measure used in statistics to quantify the fit of a
model to an observed dataset

R2

R2 is a measure of how well a model fits the


observed data

R2 represents the proportion of variability in a


dataset that is accounted for by the model

R2 values range from 0 (no predictive


power) to 1 (perfect model)

1
where

Multivariate Linear Regression

Linear regression can also be used to estimate Y as a linear function of


multiple variables

Solving for multiple variables manually is extremely tedious

Software packages, including Excel, can be used to estimate parameter


values

Estimating
Attractions

TRIP RATE ANALYSIS

Attraction Trip Rate Analysis

Trips estimated as a function of land use characteristics

Usually estimated from traffic counts, workplace/special generator surveys

Example

ProductionAttraction Matrix
vs. OriginDestination
Matrix

PA VS. OD MATRIX
CONVERTING FROM PA
TO OD

P-A vs. O-D Matrix

Production-Attraction Matrix

Used in Trip Distribution stage as input to Gravity or Growth Factor Model

Productiveness and attractiveness of zones will change as a function of demographics


and land use

Origin-Destination Matrix

Used in Traffic Assignment stage to determine sources (location where trips created)
and sinks (location where trips are consumed) for trips

Production-Attraction Matrix

For home-based trips, does not indicate directionality

Origin-Destination Matrix

Indicates directionality for all trips

Home Based vs. Non-Home Based


Trips

Home-based-trips either begin or end at a residence

Will have one production end and one attraction end

Home end is the production end regardless of directionality

Non-home-based trips neither begin nor end at a residence

In reality, both ends are attractions

In order to develop a production-attraction matrix, by definition the origin end is defined


as the production end

P-A vs. O-D Example (1)

P-A vs. O-D Example (2)

P-A vs. O-D Example (2)