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# CE 326: Transportation

Planning
TRIP GENERATION

Travel Demand

## Demand can be induced when changes to infrastructure or services reduce

the cost of transportation

## The Four Step Model

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

## Predict origin-destination flows from zone to zone

Mode Choice

Determine the number of person or vehicle trips to and from different land uses
in an analysis zone

Predict the share of users who will choose to travel using each available mode

Trip Assignment

## Allocate trips to specific routes

Modeling Challenges

## Future conditions predicted from

historic data

Land Use

Transportation network

Traffic

## Steps are iterative

http://www.mwcog.org/transportation/images/
4step.gif

Trip Generation

## FOUR STEP MODEL BASICS

ESTIMATING PRODUCTIONS

Household Surveys

## Minimum Sample Size

Cross Classification

Linear Regression

ESTIMATING ATTRACTIONS

## Trip Rate Analysis

CONVERTING PRODUCTIONS
AND ATTRACTIONS TO
ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS

Demographic Data
Household Survey

Trip Rates

Productions

a zone

## Land Use Data

Workplace/Special
Generator Surveys

Trip Rates

Attractions

Estimating
Productions

HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS

## MINIMUM SAMPLE SIZE

CROSS CLASSIFICATION

LINEAR REGRESSION

Household Surveys

## Household surveys results are used to estimate trip rates as a function of

household characteristics

## Regional Household Surveys

Household Surveys

## Performed about every 10 years

Trips

Frequencies

Distances

Household characteristics

Demographics

Vehicle Ownership

Normal Distribution

the mean

## Z is the number of standard deviations

corresponding to a specific
confidence level

## Estimated vs. True Value

The values calculated using sample data provide only an estimate of the
true mean and standard deviation

## For a large sample size, has approximately a normal distribution

regardless of the shape of the distribution

## Standard Error of the Mean

The std. dev. of the sample mean (or standard error) is given by:

where N is the population size, n is the sample size, and 2 is the population
variance

For a single sample, the best estimate of the population variance is the
sample variance

For large populations and small sample sizes, (N-n)/N approaches one, so:

## To estimate the required sample size for an infinite population, we

rearrange the equation to:

variables

Variability

Population size

## *Except in surveys of very small populations, it is the number of

observations in the sample, rather than the sample size as a percentage
of the population, which determines the precision of the sample
estimates.*

Interval

## In order to determine the statistical validity of an estimate, we must first

define the desired precision level

## The precision level is the degree of confidence(percent p) that the sampling

error of a produced estimate will fall within a desired range

= (100-p)

= 0
= 1

error( ).

formula:

## National Household Travel Survey Data

Data Year: 2009, New York State, MSA > 3 Million
Household # Household
Households (in
Person Trips (in
Size
Vehicles
thousands)
millions)
1
0
840.24
985.82
1
1
484.38
799.21
1
2
46.14
86.54
1
3
3.14
4.56
1
4+
1.04
1.76
2
0
469.87
1258.04
2
1
412.02
1133.13
2
2
394.28
1205.86
2
3
58.85
165.81
2
4+
24.11
54.22
3
0
230.85
922.58
3
1
245.84
1151.81
3
2
229.96
1028.99
3
3
140.73
702.47
3
4+
24.95
137.28
4
0
124.35
596.94
4
1
184.99
1128.8
4
2
208.61
1317.7
4
3
83.71
576.72
4
4+
53.12
340.37
5
0
128.59
642.82
5
1
108.78
891.47
5
2
98.78
777.46
5
3
40.91
297.47
5
4+
22.91
165.24

Cross-Classification

Trip rates are derived from survey data and cross-classified with one or
more individual variables to estimate trip rates

## Number of categories increases exponentially with the number of

variables included

Cross-Classification Example

Linear Regression

## Used to estimate trips as a linear function of household, individual, or land

use variables

For one independent variable (Y) and one dependent variable (X)

## We want to determine the values of a and

b that minimize S

## At the minimum, the partial derivatives of S

with respect to a and b will be equal to
zero

## Setting the derivatives equal to zero and

solving the equations simultaneously yields
formulas for a and b

## Sum of Squared Residuals

The residual is an error term that accounts for the difference between an
observed value and its model estimate

The sum of squared residuals is a measure used in statistics to quantify the fit of a
model to an observed dataset

R2

observed data

## R2 represents the proportion of variability in a

dataset that is accounted for by the model

## R2 values range from 0 (no predictive

power) to 1 (perfect model)

1
where

## Linear regression can also be used to estimate Y as a linear function of

multiple variables

values

Estimating
Attractions

## Usually estimated from traffic counts, workplace/special generator surveys

Example

ProductionAttraction Matrix
vs. OriginDestination
Matrix

PA VS. OD MATRIX
CONVERTING FROM PA
TO OD

## P-A vs. O-D Matrix

Production-Attraction Matrix

## Productiveness and attractiveness of zones will change as a function of demographics

and land use

Origin-Destination Matrix

Used in Traffic Assignment stage to determine sources (location where trips created)
and sinks (location where trips are consumed) for trips

Production-Attraction Matrix

## For home-based trips, does not indicate directionality

Origin-Destination Matrix

Trips

## In order to develop a production-attraction matrix, by definition the origin end is defined

as the production end