CE 326: Transportation

Planning
Mode Choice

The Four Step Model

Trip Generation: determine the number of productions
from and attractions to individual zones

Trip Distribution: determine the origin-destination matrix

between zones

Mode Choice: allocate trip shares to individual modes

Trip Assignment: allocate trip shares to individual routes

Model Types
Trip-End Models

Only captive riders will choose transit

Estimate market share of captive riders using socioeconomic
variables
Can be performed before distribution in 4-Step Model

Trip Interchange Models

Modes compete for ridership

Modal preference is measured by utilities
Must be performed after distribution in 4-Step Model

Utility Functions

Trip Interchange Model: Discrete

Choice Model
Discrete set of alternatives

Universal Choice Set

Individual Choice Set

Each alternative is described by a utility function

Mode choice models generally measure disutility

Utility Theory

If the utility of mode i is greater than the utility of mode j for

user t, then user t will choose mode i.

Utility is a function both of the attributes of each mode and of

the attributes of the individual user

Utility Function

Utility functions are used to estimate the utility of a mode as a

function of trip and user characteristics
The observable utility of mode i for user t, Vit, is estimated as a
function of three different variable types: mode attributes,
individual characteristics, and interaction terms

Modeling Variable Types

Variable Type

Parameter Value

Variable

Modal Service Variables

Constant

Variable

Individual Characteristics

Variable

Constant

For service variables and interaction terms, we estimate a single parameter

value because the impact of a change in these variables is equal across all
modes
For individual characteristics we have to estimate mode-specific parameters
because the impacts of these variables on modal utility vary across modes
Mode-specific parameters measure the relative impact of an individual
characteristic compared to a defined base mode

Attributes of Modal Alternatives (1)

Service variables

Travel time total, in-vehicle, out-of-vehicle

Travel cost
Number of transfers
Walk distance
Reliability of on-time arrival

Service variable values will vary across different across modes

E.g. Bus travel time drive alone travel time, subway # transfers bus #
transfers

The impact on utility of a unit change in a service variable is the same

across all modes; therefore, we can estimate one parameter value that
will apply to all modes.
People perceive services indirectly in terms of their attributes

Attributes of Modal Alternatives (2)

Since not all variables can be observed, modal bias parameters

(constants) are included in modal utility functions to capture
the observed impacts on modal utilities that are not captured
by the variables included in the model
Modal bias parameters are constant for all decision-makers
(regardless of chosen mode)
Modal bias parameters measure the expected impact on mode
utility due to unobserved variables relative to a base mode
The parameter value for a base mode relative to itself will be
zero; therefore, no modal bias parameter should be included in
the utility function for the base mode

Characteristics of the Decision Maker

Individual Characteristics

Sex
Age
Household income
Household size
Household number of automobiles
Household number of workers

Individual characteristics remain constant, regardless of the

chosen mode
As a result, we cannot simply include individual characteristics
in the model; in order to measure their impacts we must create
mode-specific variables, for which we can estimate different
parameter values

Mode-Specific Individual Characteristics

To estimate a mode-specific variable for an individual

characteristic, we multiply the dummy variable for each chosen
mode by the variable value

For modes that are not chosen, the value of this new variable
will be zero, and the variable will have no impact on the model

Mode-Specific Parameter Values

Parameter values for mode-specific variables vary across
modes

Parameter values for mode-specific variables measure

the expected impact on mode utility of a unit change in
the variable relative to a base mode

The parameter value for a base mode relative to itself will

be zero; therefore, mode-specific variables should not be
included in the utility function for the base mode

Final Utility Function

= +

Deterministic Model

Utility for each mode and individual is evaluated as a

function of observed variables

Each user will choose the mode for which their utility is
maximized

Weaknesses of Deterministic Model

We cannot observe all possible variables that may impact utility

Sources of error

Incorrect or incomplete information about attributes of alternatives

Incorrect or incomplete information about attributes of individuals
Lack of knowledge of special circumstances

We can represent this error in the utility function as a random variable

Probabilistic Model
The mathematical form of a probabilistic model is
determined by the distribution of the error term

According to the Central Limit Theorem, the error term

should be normally distributed

A model with a normally distributed error term is called a

Multinomial Probit Model
However, this model is mathematically complex and difficult to
evaluate

A more commonly applied, and less complex to solve,

model is the Multinomial Logit Model

Multinomial Logit Model

Gumbel Distribution (1)

The Multinomial Logit Model assumes that the error term is

independently and identically distributed for all modes
according to a Gumbel Distribution
The Gumbel Distribution is given by:

Gumbel Distribution (2)

The Gumbel Distribution closely approximates the Normal
Distribution

Source: Koppelman and Bhat

Multinomial Logit Model

Assumption of the Gumbel Distribution results in the closedform Multinomial Logit Model

Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Parameter values are estimated using maximum
likelihood estimation

Maximize the likelihood function or the log likelihood

function

Properties of the Multinomial

Logit Model

Equivalent Differences Property

Choice probabilities depend only on the differences in the
observed utilities of different modes

Independence of Irrelevant
Alternatives
The ratio of the likelihoods of choosing two alternatives is
not affected by the utility of any other alternatives

IIA Example

Mode 1

Mode 2

IIA Example
Mode 1

Mode 3

Mode 2

MNL does not recognize any relationship between

alternative modes

Derivatives and Elasticities

Measures of Response to Changes in

Attributes of Alternatives - Derivatives

Assuming variables are continuous

Direct: change in probability of an alternative with respect to the
change in attributes of that alternative

Cross: change in probability of one alternative with respect to the

change in attributes of another alternative

Note:

the sum of the derivatives across all alternatives should equal zero

Measures of Response to Changes in

Attributes of Alternatives Elasticities (1)

Unlike derivatives, elasticities are normalized

There is debate over whether elasticities should be
normalized to the original values, the new values, or the
midpoint

To avoid this, we can estimate point elasticities, which

measure elasticities for infinitesimally small changes

Measures of Response to Changes in

Attributes of Alternatives Elasticities (2)
Assuming variables are continuous
Direct: percentage change in the probability of one
alternative with respect to a one percent change in an
attribute of that alternative

Cross: percentage change in the probability of one

alternative with respect to a one percent change in an
attribute of another alternative

Nested Logit Model

Nested Logit Model

Hierarchical model
Two decision
levels

Mode Category
Choice
Passenger
Car
Specific
Mode Choice

Transit
Specific
Mode Choice

Drive Alone

Bus

Shared Ride

Rail

Conditional Probabilities
Mode Category Choice

Passenger
Car
Specific Mode
Choice

Drive Alone

Shared Ride

Transit

Specific Mode
Choice

Bus

Rail

Sources
Koppelman and Bhat
(http://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/bhat/COURSES/LM_Draf
t_060131Final-060630.pdf)