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Examples in Specific Business Fields

Business
Finance/Insurance
Mining
Oil and Gas
Operations/Supply Chain
Project Management/Cost Estimation
Quality/Reliability
Statistics/Probability
Examples in Other Fields
Quick
Quick Start
Start

Click here for an introductory hands-on tutorial of @RISK which includes detailed videos and ins

More
More on
on the
the Web
Web

Click here to find more examples on the Palisade website .

The first column indicates a required Edition of @RISK. (Pro=Professional (or higher), Ind=Industrial. Proj=Requires an insta
This icon indicates that an online video exists to illustrate this example. Click the icon to watch the video.

This icon indicates that this example is part of a larger sequence of examples. Click the icon to see the full sequence.
Note: Some examples appear multiple times in this list because they apply to more than one category

Business Examples

Basic Business: A sequence of simple "revenue minus cost equals profit" e

Pro
Pro
Pro

Basic
Basic
Basic
Basic
Basic
Basic
Basic
Basic

Business
Business
Business
Business
Business
Business
Business
Business

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx


Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Model with Correlated Inputs.xlsx
Model with Simtable.xlsx
Model with Goal Seek.xlsx
Model with Stress Analysis.xlsx
Model with Advanced Sensitivity Analysis.xlsx
Effects of Different Input Distributions.xlsx

Competitor Entry: A sequence of examples of a company's sales of a new


Competitor Entry 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Competitor Entry 2 - Model with More Competitors.xlsx

New Product: A sequence of examples of the growth and decline of a new


Note

New
New
New
New

Product
Product
Product
Product

0
1
2
3

Basic
Basic
Basic
Basic

Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx


Model with TopRank.xlsx
@RISK Model.xlsx
Model with Less Uncertainty.xlsx

Other Basic Business Examples


Ind
Ind
Ind

Cost Estimation.xlsx
Product Mix with Uncertainty 1.xlsx
Product Mix with Uncertainty 2.xlsx
Seasonal Sales - Time Series Fit.xlsx

Finance/Insurance Examples

Credit Risk: A sequence of examples that a credit office could use to appro
Credit Risk 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Credit Risk 2 - Model with Business Cycles.xlsx
Credit Risk 3 - Model with Correlated Price and Volume.xlsx

Discounted Cash Flow: A sequence of discounted cash flow models for ca


Discounted
Discounted
Discounted
Discounted

Cash
Cash
Cash
Cash

Flow
Flow
Flow
Flow

0
1
2
3

Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx


Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Model with Changing Growth Rates.xlsx
Model with Correlated Growth Rates.xlsx

Portfolio Analysis: A sequence of examples about portfolios of investment

Pro
Ind

Portfolio
Portfolio
Portfolio
Portfolio
Portfolio
Portfolio
Portfolio

Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis

0 - Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx


1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
2 - Model with Puts.xlsx
3 - Sensitivity Analysis for Model with Puts.xlsx
4 - Using Goal Seek on Model with Puts.xlsx
5 - Model with Correlated Stock Prices.xlsx
with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

Insurance Claims: A sequence of examples for simulating categories of cla


Insurance
Insurance
Insurance
Insurance

Claims
Claims
Claims
Claims

0
1
2
3

Basic Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx


Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Model with RiskCompound.xlsx
Model with Resampling.xlsx

Real Options: A sequence of examples for using simulation to price real op


Real
Real
Real
Real
Real
Real

Options
Options
Options
Options
Options
Options

1
2
3
4
5
6

Abandonment.xlsx
Postponement.xlsx
Expansion.xlsx
Reduction.xlsx
Pioneer.xlsx
Sequential Decisions.xlsx

Other Finance/Insurance Examples


Capital Budgeting.xlsx
Cash Management.xlsx

Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Pro

Contingent Contract Valuation.xlsx


Exchange Rate Hedging.xlsx
Financial Forecasting.xlsx
Financial Portfolio Simulation.xlsx
Investment Model with Correlated Assets.xlsx
Planning for Retirement.xlsx
Planning House Purchase.xlsx
Portfolio Balancing with Uncertainty.xlsx
Portfolio Optimization with Time Series.xlsx
Stock Price Forecasts.xlsx
Stock Prices - Time Series Batch Fit.xlsx
Stress Analysis.xlsx

Mining Examples

Gold Mine Lease: A sequence of models using simulation to value a gold m

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Valuing a Gold Mine Lease 1 - No Option.xlsx


Valuing a Gold Mine Lease 2 - Abandonment Option.xlsx
Valuing a Gold Mine Lease 3 - Price Time Series.xlsx

Oil and Gas Examples

Oil Drilling Schedule: A sequence of examples for simulating the capital e


Oil Drilling Schedule 0 - Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
Oil Drilling Schedule 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx

Oil, Gas Forecast: A sequence of examples for forecasting revenues and e


Oil, Gas Forecast 0 - Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx
Oil, Gas Forecast 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Oil, Gas Forecast 2 - Sensitivity Analysis.xlsx

Volumetric Reserves: A sequence of simple examples to determine the am


Volumetric
Volumetric
Volumetric
Volumetric

Reserves
Reserves
Reserves
Reserves

0
1
2
3

Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx


Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Sensitivity to Input Distributions.xlsx
Methane Model.xlsx

Other Oil and Gas Examples


Ind
Ind

Oil Depletion Allowance.xlsx


Petroleum Prices - Time Series Fit.xlsx
Petroleum Prices - Time Series Batch Fit.xlsx

Operations/Supply Chain

E-Commerce Service Examples: A sequence of examples based on the fam


E-Commerce Service 0 - Basic Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx

Pro
Ind

E-Commerce
E-Commerce
E-Commerce
E-Commerce
E-Commerce

Service
Service
Service
Service
Service

1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx


2 - Basic Model with Extra Uncertainty.xlsx
3 - Model with Different Capacities.xlsx
4 - Model with Goal Seek.xlsx
with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

Hotel Booking: A sequence of examples for taking reservations at a hotel

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Hotel
Hotel
Hotel
Hotel
Hotel

Booking
Booking
Booking
Booking
Booking

0 - Basic Model with No Uncertainty.xlsx


1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
2 - Model with Reservation Limits.xlsx
3 - Model Correlated Demands.xlsx
with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

Bullwhip Effect: A sequence of examples illustrating how the famous bullw


Supply Chain Bullwhip Effect 1.xlsx
Supply Chain Bullwhip Effect 2.xlsx

Other Operations/Supply Chain Examples


Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind

Airline Revenue Management.xlsx


Airline Revenue Management - Walkthrough Tutorial.xlsx
Generating Demands for Substitute Products.xlsx
Inventory Ordering Simulation.xlsx
Multi-Product Inventory Production.xlsx
Newsvendor Model with Multiple Products.xlsx
Ordering Style Goods.xlsx
Scheduling Job Tasks on Machines with Uncertainty.xlsx
Scheduling Jobs with Due Dates.xlsx

Project Management/Cost Estimation


Cost Estimation.xlsx

Examples That Require an Installed Copy of Microsoft Project


Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj

Correlations.xlsx
Parameter Entry Table.xlsx
Probabilistic Branching.xlsx
Probabilistic Gantt and Critical Index.xlsx
RiskProjectResourceAdd.xlsx
RiskProjectResourceUse.xlsx
Risk Register and Advanced Modeling.xlsx
Schedule Audit.xlsx
Simple Risk Register.xlsx
Simple Risk Register - Multiple Risks Impact Same Task.xlsx
Simple Risk Register - Task to Impact Changes.xlsx
Tutorial with Risk Categories.xlsx

Pro, Proj

Tutorial.xlsx
Date Calculations in @RISK.xlsx

Quality/Reliability Examples

Process Capability: A sequence of examples that examine a system compo


Process Capability 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Process Capability 2 - Model with Correlated Parts.xlsx
Process Capability 3 - Six Sigma Functions.xlsx

Reliability: A sequence of examples that examine a system with several m

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Reliability 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx


Reliability 2 - Model with Correlations.xlsx
Reliability with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

Other Quality, Reliability Examples


Electrical Circuit Analysis.xlsx
Six Sigma DOE with Catapult.xlsx
Six Sigma DOE with Weld.xlsx
Taguchi Loss Function.xlsx
Vendor Selection.xlsx

Statistics/Probability Examples

Event Risk: A sequence of examples for simulating risk events that either
Event Risk 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Event Risk 2 - Using RiskMakeInput Function.xlsx
Event Risk 3 - Dependent Events.xlsx

Other statistics/probability examples


Central Limit Theorem.xlsx
Latin Hypercube Sampling.xlsx
Monte Carlo vs Latin Hypercube Sampling.xlsx
Stochastic Dominance.xlsx

Examples in Other Fields

Infectious Disease: A sequence of examples for simulating the spread of a


Infectious Disease 1 - Basic @RISK Model.xlsx
Infectious Disease 2 - Model with Possible Cures.xlsx

Workforce Planning
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Workforce Planning.xlsx
Workforce Planning with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

Sports Examples
Baseball World Series.xlsx
NCAA Basketball Tournament.xlsm
Presidents Cup Golf.xlsx

Advanced Analyses Examples


Goal Seek
Pro
Pro

Basic Business 4 - Model with Goal Seek.xlsx


Portfolio Analysis 4 - Using Goal Seek on Model with Puts.xlsx

Stress Analysis
Pro
Pro

Basic Business 5 - Model with Stress Analysis.xlsx


Stress Analysis.xlsx

Advanced Sensitivity Analysis


Pro
Pro

Advanced Sensitivity Analysis.xlsx


Basic Business 6 - Model with Advanced Sensitivity Analysis.xlsx

Correlation Examples
Adjusting a Correlation Matrix.xlsx
Basic Business 2 - Model with Correlated Inputs.xlsx
Credit Risk 3 - Model with Correlated Price and Volume.xlsx
Dependency and Correlation.xlsx
Discounted Cash Flow 3 - Model with Correlated Growth Rates.xlsx
Hotel Booking 3 - Model Correlated Demands.xlsx
Investment Model with Correlated Assets.xlsx
Portfolio Analysis 5 - Model with Correlated Stock Prices.xlsx
Process Capability 2 - Model with Correlated Parts.xlsx
Reliability 2 - Model with Correlations.xlsx

Distribution Fitting Examples


Pro
Pro

Distribution Fitting.xlsx
Distribution Fitting - Batch Fit.xlsx

Simulation with Microsoft Project Examples

(These Examples Require an Installed Copy of Microsoft Project and the In


Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj

Correlations.xlsx
Parameter Entry Table.xlsx
Probabilistic Branching.xlsx
Probabilistic Gantt and Critical Index.xlsx
RiskProjectResourceAdd.xlsx
RiskProjectResourceUse.xlsx

Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj
Pro, Proj

Risk Register and Advanced Modeling.xlsx


Schedule Audit.xlsx
Simple Risk Register.xlsx
Simple Risk Register - Multiple Risks Impact Same Task.xlsx
Simple Risk Register - Task to Impact Changes.xlsx
Tutorial with Risk Categories.xlsx
Tutorial.xlsx
Date Calculations in @RISK.xlsx

RISKOptimizer Examples
"Recipe" Solving Method Examples
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Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind

Accepting House Offers.xlsx


Airline Revenue Management.xlsx
Airline Revenue Management - Walkthrough Tutorial.xlsx
Capital Budgeting.xlsx
Cash Management.xlsx
E-Commerce Service with RISKOptimizer.xlsx
Hotel Booking with RISKOptimizer.xlsx
Newsvendor Model with Multiple Products.xlsx
Ordering Style Goods.xlsx
Planning House Purchase.xlsx
Portfolio Analysis with RISKOptimizer.xlsx
Portfolio Optimization with Time Series.xlsx
Product Mix with Uncertainty 1.xlsx
Product Mix with Uncertainty 2.xlsx
Reliability with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

"Budget" Solving Method Examples


Ind
Ind

Planning for Retirement.xlsx


Workforce Planning with RISKOptimizer.xlsx

"Order" Solving Method Examples


Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind

Multi-Product Inventory Production.xlsx


Scheduling Job Tasks on Machines with Uncertainty.xlsx
Scheduling Jobs with Due Dates.xlsx
Traveling Salesperson with Uncertainty.xlsx

Other Solving Method Examples


Ind
Ind
Ind

Portfolio Balancing with Uncertainty.xlsx


Scheduling Classes with Uncertainty.xlsx
Traveling Salesperson Variation with Uncertainty.xlsx

RISKOptimizer Features
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Penalty Functions and Soft Constraints in RISKOptimizer.xlsx

Six-Sigma Examples
Electrical Circuit Analysis.xlsx
Process Capability 3 - Six Sigma Functions.xlsx
Six Sigma DOE with Catapult.xlsx
Six Sigma DOE with Weld.xlsx
Vendor Selection.xlsx
Six Sigma Functions.docx
Six Sigma Functions.xlsx

Time-Series Examples
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind
Ind

Exchange Rate Hedging.xlsx


Financial Portfolio Simulation.xlsx
Fuel Cost Projection Simulation.xlsx
Inventory Ordering Simulation.xlsx
Petroleum Prices - Time Series Batch Fit.xlsx
Petroleum Prices - Time Series Fit.xlsx
Portfolio Optimization with Time Series.xlsx
Seasonal Sales - Time Series Fit.xlsx
Stock Prices - Time Series Batch Fit.xlsx

Other @RISK Features

Theo Statistical Functions: A sequence of examples that illustrate @RISK's


Theo Statistical Functions 1 - Finding Summary Statistics.xlsx
Theo Statistical Functions 2 - Comparing Distributions.xlsx
Theo Statistical Functions 3 - Quality Calculations.xlsx

Other Examples that Illustrate @RISK Features


Alt Parameter Distributions.xlsx
Date Calculations in @RISK.xlsx
Distribution Property Functions.xlsx
Latin Hypercube Sampling.xlsx
Monte Carlo vs Latin Hypercube Sampling.xlsx
RiskOutput Function.xlsx
RiskTemplate.xlsx
Simtable with Multiple Variables.xlsx
Simulation Sensitivities.xlsx
Summary Trend Chart.xlsx
Truncated Distributions.xlsx

Examples Highlighting Product Features


Advanced Analyses
Correlation
Distribution Fitting
Simulation with Microsoft Project
RISKOptimizer
Six-Sigma
Time-Series
Other @RISK Features

hich includes detailed videos and instructions.

Ind=Industrial. Proj=Requires an installed version of MS Project.)

e icon to watch the video.

Click the icon to see the full sequence.

an one category

us cost equals profit" examples that illustrate various @RISK features


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deterministic model to get started


basic @RISK model with uncertain revenue and cost
version where revenue and cost are not only uncertain but correlated
version that illustrates the RiskSimtable function for examining the effect of different standard deviations of re
version that illustrates @RISK's Goal Seek feature for forcing the standard deviation of profit to a specified valu
version that illustrates @RISK's Stress Analysis feature for examining conditional (usually tail) distributions of p
version that illustrates @RISK's Advanced Sensitivity Analysis feature for checking how sensitive an output is t
version that checks whether the forms of the input distributions have much effect on the output distribution

mpany's sales of a new product when competitor entries into the market are possible
A basic @RISK model where only one competitor can enter the market
A version where multiple competitors can enter or exit the market

h and decline of a new product


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deterministic model to get started


version using TopRank to see which of many inputs are important enough to model with uncertainty
basic @RISK model where the most important inputs, based on the TopRank analysis, are modeled with uncert
version with somewhat less uncertainty in the inputs, used for comparison with the previous version

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model for determining whether the total of uncertain costs meets a budget
product mix optimization model with uncertainty only in product demands
product mix optimization model with uncertainty in product demands and in resource usage
model that illustrates how the Time Series Fit feature can be used on a series with trend and seasonality

ffice could use to approve or disapprove a loan


A basic @RISK model where the uncertainty is essentially stationary through time
A version where the uncertainty changes through time because of business cycles
Another version with business cycles, but where the lender's price and sales volume are correlated each year

ash flow models for calculating the net present value (NPV) of an investment
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deterministic model to get started


basic @RISK model where various quantities are uncertain but don't change from year to year
version where various uncertain quantities are allowed to change from year to year
version where revenue growth rates not only change from year to year but are correlated

ortfolios of investments

A deterministic model to get started


A basic @RISK model where future stock prices are independent of one another
A version where the investor can purchase put options on the stocks held to mitigate risk
Another version with puts that illustrates @RISK's Sensitivity Analysis features
A version that illustrates @RISK's Goal Seek feature for forcing the mean return from a stock to a specified value
A version where future stock prices are correlated with one another
A version that determines the puts that result in an optimal portfolio of stocks and puts

lating categories of claims for an insurance company


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deterministic model to get started


nave @RISK model that fails to capture all the uncertainty in total claims
better version using the RiskCompound function to capture all of the uncertainty in total claims
version using the method of resampling to simulate the numbers of claims each year

mulation to price real options


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the real option of abandoning a project at a future time if the project is not doing well
the real option of postponing investment in a project rather than investing right away
the real option of expanding a project at a later date
the real option of reducing the size of a project at a later date
the real option of participating in a "pioneer" project, a money-loser that allows a compa
a sequence of two real options in the pharmaceutical industry

A capital budgeting model with uncertainty about projects' resource and capital usage and their NPVs
A multi-day model for determining when cash should be invested or cash should be obtained

A model for evaluating a contingent contract, where a penalty must be paid if a target is not met
A model that illustrates options for hedging against exchange rate variability, using the Time Series Fit feature o
A model for projecting future financial values, with various sources of uncertainty
A portfolio model that uses the Time Series Batch Fit feature to project future stock prices from historical stock p
A basic portfolio model with correlated assets, including a comparison across different correlation values
An optimization model for deciding how to invest over a multi-year horizon to achieve a retirement goal
An optimization model for determining how to invest over a time horizon to accumulate a down payment for a h
An optimization model that balances groups of securities in a portfolio
A portfolio optimization model that applies the Time Series Fit feature to historical stock price data
A model for projecting future stock prices
A model that illustrates the Time Series Fit and Batch Fit features for fitting multiple correlated stock price series
An insurance model that illustrates @RISK's Stress Analysis feature

lation to value a gold mine lease

A basic @RISK model with uncertainty in the amount of gold mined, the unit cost of extracting it, and the price o
Same as the basic model, but provides the owner of the lease the option to abandon it at any time
Same as the abandonment model, but where the Time Series Fit feature is used to fit historical gold prices to a t

imulating the capital expenditures and numbers of wells in operation over time
A deterministic model to get started
A basic @RISK model with uncertainty about the size of the oil field

casting revenues and expenses for an oil field over time


A deterministic model to get started
A basic @RISK model with a number of uncertainties
A version using the RiskCollect function to help with a sensitivity analysis of the basic @RISK model

es to determine the amount of oil or gas in a field


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deterministic model to get started


basic @RISK model where the output, a product of three uncertain quantities, is shown to be lognormally distr
version that uses several potential distributions of uncertain inputs to compare their effects on the output dist
version where the amount of methane is the product of five uncertain quantities

A model that illustrates how the oil depletion allowance affects the value of an oil investment
A model that illustrates the Time Series Fit feature can be used to generate future forecasts
A model that illustrates how the Time Series Batch Fit feature can be used to fit several potentially correlated se

mples based on the famous "newsvendor" model for illustrating @RISK's basic features
A deterministic model to get started

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basic @RISK model with demand uncertainty


version with demand uncertainty and uncertainty in price and cost
version that illustrates the RiskSimtable function for different values of the capacity decision variable
version that illustrates @RISK's Goal Seek feature for forcing mean profit to a specified value
version for determining the capacity that maximizes the 10th percentile of profit

eservations at a hotel
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deterministic model to get started


basic @RISK model with uncertainty in demand and other uncertainties, where all reservations are taken
version with reservation "booking" limits to prevent excessive overbooking
version with no reservation limits but correlated demands for the two types of rooms
version that determines optimal reservation limits

g how the famous bullwhip effect creates excess inventory in a supply chain
A model that illustrates how the bullwhip effect can occur with a single retailer and supplier
A more common version that illustrates the bullwhip effect when there are multiple tiers of suppliers

A model for determining optimal discount and full-fare limits on an airline flight
The same as above but without the RISKOptimizer settings (for following along with the tutorial)
A model that illustrates one possible generic approach for generating demands for substitute products
An inventory ordering model that illustrates how the Time Series Define feature can be used to generate deman
A large optimization model for producing multiple SKUs to meet demand (based on a real Palisade case)
An optimization model for determining the best order quantities when substitute products are competing for tota
A single-season optimization model for ordering style goods where ordering can occur after early sales have bee
An optimization model that determines the best schedule for performing tasks on various machines
An optimization model for ordering jobs to meet due dates as nearly as possible

mation
A model for determining whether the total of uncertain costs meets a budget

oft Project
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illustrates
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how @RISK can be used to correlate task times in a project


the Parameter Entry Table for storing parameters of task time distributions
how successor tasks can be chosen randomly according to given probabilities
@RISK's probabilistic Gantt chart and the probabilities that tasks are critical
the RiskProjectResourceAdd and RiskProjectResourceRemove functions for adding or rem
the RiskProjectResourceUse function for adding uncertainty to the assignment of resourc
the use of a risk register, a Timescaled Data report. and other features for advanced pro
@RISK's Schedule Audit feature for checking for errors in a project model
a risk register, a feature that lists possible risk events that can impact a project schedule
the use of a risk register where multiple risks impact the same task
the use of a risk register where the risks impact different tasks
the Risk Categories feature, which allows several tasks to share the same parameters

A model that illustrates the basic features for modeling projects with @RISK
A model that illustrates special ways of treating dates in @RISK simulations

xamine a system composed of several identical parts


A basic @RISK model where the system functions if at least k of its n parts function
A version where the values of the parts are correlated
A version that illustrates several of @RISK's Six Sigma functions

system with several modules in series, where each module has parts in parallel
A basic @RISK model for finding the system's reliability (the probability that it functions)
A version where the parts are correlated within and across modules
A version that determines the numbers of parts required for the most cost-effective system

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of an electrical system that illustrates @RISK's Six Sigma functions


for building a catapult that illustrates @RISK's Six Sigma functions in the context of DOE
for welding a disk onto a ring that illustrates @RISK's Six Sigma functions in the context of DOE
that illustrates the use of the Taguchi quadratic loss function to measure uncertain quality
for selecting a vendor on the basis of quality and cost

risk events that either occur or don't occur


A basic @RISK model for a number of events, any (or all) of which could occur
A version illustrating the RiskMakeInput function for use in sensitivity analysis
A version where dependent events can occur (or not occur) sequentially in time

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uses simulation to illustrate the famous central limit theorem


explains Latin Hypercube sampling and illustrates one particular ramification of using it
compares Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling
illustrates the concept of one alternative stochastically dominating others

ulating the spread of an infectious disease


A basic @RISK model where infected people are never cured
A version where infected people can possibly be cured but can then become infected again

A basic @RISK model for simulating several years of job movements within an organization
A version that determines the "best" promotion/hiring parameters for a long-term outcome

A model for simulating a best-of-7 game baseball World Series


A model for simulating the NCAA Basketball "March Madness" Tournament
A simulation model for seeing how important a given lead is after early rounds of the tournament

A simple business model that illustrates @RISK's Goal Seek feature


A portfolio model that illustrates @RISK's Goal Seek feature

A basic business model that illustrates @RISK's Stress Analysis feature


An insurance model that illustrates @RISK's Stress Analysis feature

A new product model that illustrates @RISK's Advanced Sensitivity Analysis feature
A basic business model that illustrates @RISK's Advanced Sensitivity Analysis feature

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model that illustrates how @RISK can automatically adjust an "illegal" correlation matrix
simple business model that illustrates how to add correlation between revenue and cost
credit risk model with correlation between price and volume
model that illustrates various ways of specifying correlations between uncertain quantities
discounted cash flow model with correlated growth rates through time
hotel booking model with reservation limits and correlated demands for two types of rooms
portfolio model with correlated assets, including a comparison across different correlation values
portfolio model with correlations between stock returns
process capability model with correlated part values
system reliability model with correlated modules and parts

A model that illustrates how the Time Series Fit feature can be applied to time series data, and how various fits c
A model that illustrates the Time Series Batch Fit feature for fitting distributions to several data variables at once

ect Examples

osoft Project and the Industrial or Professional Edition of @RISK)


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how @RISK can be used to correlate task times in a project


the Parameter Entry Table for storing parameters of task time distributions
how successor tasks can be chosen randomly according to given probabilities
@RISK's probabilistic Gantt chart and the probabilities that tasks are critical
the RiskProjectResourceAdd and RiskProjectResourceRemove functions for adding or rem
the RiskProjectResourceUse function for adding uncertainty to the assignment of resourc

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the use of a risk register, a Timescaled Data report. and other features for advanced pro
@RISK's Schedule Audit feature for checking for errors in a project model
a risk register, a feature that lists possible risk events that can impact a project schedule
the use of a risk register where multiple risks impact the same task
the use of a risk register where the risks impact different tasks
the Risk Categories feature, which allows several tasks to share the same parameters
the basic features for modeling projects with @RISK
special ways of treating dates in @RISK simulations

An optimization model for deciding which of sequential house offers to accept


A model for finding optimal discount and full-fare limits on an airline flight
The same model as above but without the RISKOptimizer settings (for following along with the tutorial)
A capital budgeting model with uncertainty about projects' resource and capital usage and their NPVs
A multi-day model for determining when cash should be invested or cash should be obtained
A model for finding the capacity in an e-commerce system that maximizes the 10th percentile of profit
A model for determining optimal hotel reservation limits
A model for finding optimal order quantities when substitute products are competing for total demand
A single-season optimization model for ordering style goods, where ordering can occur after early sales have be
A model for determining how to invest over a time horizon to accumulate a down payment for a house
A model for finding the optimal put options in a portfolio of stocks and puts
A portfolio optimization model that applies the Time Series Fit feature to historical stock price data
A product mix model with uncertainty only in product demands
A product mix model with uncertainty in product demands and resource usage
A model for finding the most cost-effective way to build a reliable system of modules and parts

An optimization model for deciding how to invest over a multi-year horizon to achieve a retirement goal
A multi-year optimization model for promoting and hiring workers

A large optimization model for producing multiple SKUs to meet demand (based on a real Palisade case)
An optimization model that determines the best schedule for performing tasks on various machines
An optimization model for ordering jobs to meet due dates as nearly as possible
An optimization model that determines the best route for a traveling salesperson with uncertain route costs

An optimization model that balances groups of securities in a portfolio


An optimization model that schedules college classes with uncertain enrollments in different time slots
A variation of the traveling salesperson model where there are precedence constraints on the order of towns vis

An illustration of penalty functions and how they can be used in soft constraints

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model of an electrical system that illustrates @RISK's Six Sigma functions


model that illustrates @RISK's Six Sigma functions in a process control setting
model for building a catapult that illustrates @RISK's six sigma functions in the context of DOE
model for welding a disk onto a ring that illustrates @RISK's six sigma functions in the context of DOE
model for selecting a vendor on the basis of quality and cost
Word file that documents @RISK's six sigma functions
list of @RISK's six sigma functions: what they mean and how they work

A model that illustrates options for hedging against exchange rate variability, using the Time Series Fit feature o
A portfolio model that uses the Time Series Batch Fit feature to project future stock prices from historical stock p
A model that uses the Time Series Batch Fit feature to project fuel prices in a simulation of the next year's fuel c
An inventory ordering model that illustrates how the Time Series Define feature can be used to generate deman
A model that illustrates how the Time Series Batch Fit feature can be used to fit several potentially correlated se
A model that illustrates the Time Series Fit feature can be used to generate future forecasts
A portfolio optimization model that applies the Time Series Fit feature to historical stock price data
A model that illustrates how the Time Series Fit feature can be used on a series with trend and seasonality
A model that illustrates the Time Series Fit and Batch Fit features for fitting multiple correlated stock price series

that illustrate @RISK's Theo (theoretical) statistical functions

A version that finds basic summary statistics of a theoretical distribution


A version that comparies percentiles of triangular and Pert distributions
A version that compares quality measures from Six Sigma simulations to exact calculations with RiskTheo functi

Examples of how alternative parameters can be specified for common distributions


A model that illustrates special ways of treating dates in @RISK simulations
Examples that illustrate how @RISK "property" functions can be embedded in other @RISK functions for various
A model that explains Latin Hypercube sampling and illustrates one particular ramification of using it
A model that compares Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling
A model that illustrates the use and syntax of the RiskOutput function
A model that illustrates @RISK's template report option for creating ready-made reports
A model that illustrates the proper way to use multiple RiskSimtable functions
A model that illustrates @RISK's tornado and spider graphs for sensitivity analysis
A model that illustrates @RISK's Summary Trend chart, especially useful for time series outputs
A model that illustrates the RiskTruncate function and how @RISK samples from a truncated distribution

andard deviations of revenue and cost


rofit to a specified value
y tail) distributions of profit
sensitive an output is to various inputs
e output distribution

e possible

uncertainty
e modeled with uncertainty
ious version

and seasonality

orrelated each year

ck to a specified value

ect is not doing well


nvesting right away

er that allows a company to "get in the game"

d their NPVs

me Series Fit feature on historical exchange rate data

from historical stock prices


relation values
tirement goal
down payment for a house

ated stock price series

ting it, and the price of gold

orical gold prices to a time series process

o be lognormally distributed
ects on the output distribution

tentially correlated series all at once

sic features

sion variable

vations are taken

f suppliers

ute products
ed to generate demands
Palisade case)
are competing for total demand
r early sales have been observed

probabilities

tions for adding or removing a resource during a simulation


assignment of resources in a project
ures for advanced project modeling

pact a project schedule and costs

e same parameters

ontext of DOE

of using it

and how various fits can be compared


data variables at once

probabilities

tions for adding or removing a resource during a simulation


assignment of resources in a project

ures for advanced project modeling

pact a project schedule and costs

e same parameters

the tutorial)
d their NPVs

ntile of profit

otal demand
er early sales have been observed
t for a house

tirement goal

Palisade case)

ertain route costs

nt time slots
the order of towns visited

ontext of DOE

me Series Fit feature on historical exchange rate data


from historical stock prices
the next year's fuel costs
ed to generate demands
tentially correlated series all at once

and seasonality
ated stock price series

s with RiskTheo functions

K functions for various functionality


of using it

ed distribution