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Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Islamic Azad University South-Tehran Branch, Mohallati Expway, Tehran, Iran
b
Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Campus No. 2, University of Tehran, North Kargar Avenue, Tehran, Iran
c
Department of Electrical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran, Iran
Received 14 June 2006; received in revised form 9 January 2008; accepted 29 January 2008
Abstract
One of the most important issues in planning the reservoir type of hydro-power plants (HPP) is to determine the installation capacity of the HPPs and estimate its annual energy value. In this paper, a method is presented. A computer program has been developed to
analyze energy calculation and estimation of the most important economic indices of an HPP using the sensitivity analysis method.
Another program, developed by Matlab software, calculates the reliability indices for a number of units of an HPP with a specied load
duration curve using the Monte Carlo method. Ultimately, comparing the technical, economic and reliability indices will determine the
installation capacity of an HPP. By applying the above-mentioned algorithm to an existing HPP named Bookan (located in the westnorth of Iran); the capacity of 30 MW is obtained.
2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Reservoir type of hydro-power plant; Economic analysis; Monte Carlo method; Installation capacity
1. Introduction
HPPs have found special importance due to their relatively low administrative and executive costs and a short
construction time compared to large power plants. These
HPPs are in the reservoir (annual or seasonal regulation reservoir) category with a domain capacity from
10 MW and upper. The generated capacity is based on
the accumulation of water reservoir and consists of a reservoir dam, penstock, power house, and tailrace structure
of the body of HPP, as well as, other electrical and
mechanical equipments. Seasonal regulation of the water
volume in the headpond is used to get maximum power
from the HPP during peak and base hours. The amount
of energy generated during dierent daily hours and/or
dierent seasons of the year are the most important
*
0142-0615/$ - see front matter 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2008.01.002
issues worthy of study in the reservoir type of HPPs studies. In other words, calculating the suitable installation
capacity is one of the most important factors in planning
HPPs.
2. Installation capacity
To determine the installation capacity of HPPs all
technical, economic and reliability indices are considered
in the trade-o relations. Using this approach, the
amount of annual energy is determined by using categorized statistics of the output and overow volume of
water in dierent months or even days. Then, after specifying the income and costs of the plant, the economic
indices of dierent alternatives are extracted then the reliability index is calculated. Ultimately, through comparison of the technical, economic and reliability indices, a
superior alternative can be selected, determining the
installation capacity.
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S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402
PFi ea =P i 8760
kW
which
A = (q g g)/1000 is a coecient
g = the eciency of the turbine/generator
Q = design ow through the turbine (m3/s)
H = net (eective) head (m)
q = water density (kg/m3)
g = 9.81 (m/s2)
ei = Pi ti (kW h) as generated energy
epi = Pi (365 tp) (kW h) peak generated energy
em (kW h) monthly generated energy
Pi (kW) rated power
ti (h) operation hours
tp (h) daily peak hours
P
ea 12
n1 emn (kW h) annually generated energy
Due to considering the above-mentioned items in dierent months and also days, the maximum eciency of HPP
and the earned energy can be calculated. Ultimately, the
mean gained energy can be estimated. It should be noted
that due to the section type of the turbine according to
the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) standard, and
the other constraints of the turbine in the output and the
net height of the reservoir the calculations are being done.
Fig. 1 shows the energy calculation algorithm.
In addition, with respect to the by-laws of the Iranian
Ministry of Energy regarding energy purchases, energy
generation in a day must be divided into three dierent
types: peak load (4 h), normal load (12 h), and low load
(8 h). The high value of energy is categorized based on
the peak, normal and low loads, respectively, so the planner can choose dierent alternatives with the highest energy
generation relative to the load. While coordinating between
energy in peak and base states, the technical indices such as
the plant factor of an HPP should be within a reasonable
and acceptable limit. With respect to the role of a medium
size of HPP (between 10 and 100 MW) in the power system
network, the recommended index sizes a gure between
29% and 45% [1] while for large size of HPP this gure
would be lower (25% or less).
T i ea =P i ;
T i =8760;
S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402
395
Input Data
Output & overflow of water
Water level limits (Reservoir and tailrace)
Net head
A=Ax
A: Alternative
Ax: xth alternative
n=1
n: statistical year
Ax= Ax+1
n =n + 1
J=1
If n nmax
N
If Ax Amax
N
Output:
Different alternatives Installation capacity & average annual energy
nmax
E ave = ( e ay ) / n max
y =1
Output:
Technical index plant factor for different alternatives
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S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402
calculate investment costs, the interest rate during construction should also be considered [46].
Replacement and renovation costs: The main parts of the
HPP, such as generator windings, turbine runners and
other parts will eventually need replacement and renovation. To estimate the costs for large and medium sized
power plants, the percentage of renovation and replacement should be determined for dierent sections separately [2,3].
2.2.3. Income and benefits
There are two benets for the HPPs: (1) tangible benets; (2) intangible benets. The tangible benet is the sale
of electrical energy. Based on approval by Iranian regulators, the purchase of electrical energy from HPPs has been
guaranteed by the Iranian Ministry of Energy in which the
purchase will be done from four sectors: (1) the governmental sector without transmission lines; (2) the governmental sector with transmission lines; (3) the private
sector without transmission lines; (4) the private sector
with transmission lines. In each case, the electrical energy
purchasing rates are being provided in dierent months
of the year based on the peak load (4 h in a day), normal
load (12 h in a day) and low load (8 h in a day). Meanwhile,
for the private sector, dierent purchase rates are being
presented with four options, namely, 100%, 75%, 50%,
and 25% of private investment. Due to peak hours of
energy consumption, the purchasing rate would be more
attractive for the producer of energy. The annual ination-purchasing rate is being considered to be 5% in the calculation. The intangible benets cover the positive
environmental eects, ood control, agriculture and irrigation, sh farm pools, camps and recreation centers which
eventually turn into quantitative values. The intangible
benets are not included in this economic analysis of the
project, but naturally a more desirable result will be
obtained for the economic indices when taking these factors into account [24].
2.2.4. Financial and time specification
Capital depreciation period for construction
costs:
Replacement and renovation of electromechanical equipment:
Duration of construction:
Annual interest rate:
Annual ination rate:
50
years
25
years
3 years
620%
5%
Table 1 shows the capital distribution during the investment period. This table presents construction time from 1
to 6 years [24] in this table, the construction costs are
expensed in the relevant subsequent years. Thus, with the
eects of interest and ination, the costs of the subsequent
years can be predicted. Social and economic factors could
also be included in this calculation. When execution activities begin, the annual payments should be expensed in the
midyear, in order to lessen the eect of ination, thus low-
Table 1
Distribution of costs versus construction years
Construction years
1 (%)
2 (%)
3 (%)
4 (%)
5 (%)
6 (%)
1
2
3
4
5
6
100
77
37
16
9
6
23
56
62
49
31
7
18
30
40
4
9
15
3
6
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S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402
Input Data
Installation Capacity
Total annual Energy (Base & Peak)
Sale of Energy
i= ix
i (1 + i)
(1+ i)n 1
Acc=P1
C=
t =1
i (1+ i)
(1+ i)n 1
n
A1=C
AO&M= 0.02 A1
j=1
j: Number of life cycle year of project
ix = 6%, 8%,
Ct (1 + i)
10%, 12%,14%,
16%, 18%, &
20%
Calculation of
senility analysis for
interest rates
TEP = purchase
TEP: total energy purchase
PWF=
Tc = Acc + AO&M + Rc
Rc: Replacement & renovation cost
(1 + i) j
PWC= Tc PWF
PWB= TEP PWF
PWS= PWC - PWB
j=j+1
if j n / 2 = 25
Y
If j n = 50
N
Output
Economical indices, B/C, NPV, $/kWh, DCR, ROE
END
Fig. 2. Economical calculation algorithm.
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S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402
Table A.1
Shows summary of interest formulas for economic evaluations
Name of formula
To nd
Given
Equation
Use
n
F
P
P
F
F = p(1 + i)
1
P F 1i
n
F
A
A
F
F A 1ii 1
A F 1ii n 1
i1i
A P 1i
n
1
n
1
A 1i
i1in
Variable denitions: P is a present sum of memory F is a future sum of memory at the end of N periods i is an interest or discount rate per period n is the
number of interest or discounting periods A is a end-of-period payment (or receipt) in a uniform series of payments (or receipts) over N periods at i interest
or discount rate.
i , i , PGi
Input
i = 1,..., G
Ai =
i
i + i
i = 1,..., G
n=1 , i = 1, pt = 0 , LOLE= 0
Random selection of one day in year and the related load of it (PL)
Ai Ri ?
Y
Pt = Pt + PGi
N
i= G ?
i=i+1
Y
Y
Pt PL ?
N
LOLE = LOLE +1
N
i=1
n=n+1
Pt = 0
LOLE =
n=Iterations ?
LOLE days
years
Output
Fig. 3. The LOLE calculation algorithm, using the Monte Carlo method.
case, the monthly net output (output plus overow) in reservoir and net height in the reservoir for dierent months
which have been given in the followings (the dierence
between the level of water in reservoir and the level of axis
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S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402
Table 2
Obtained annual energy for dierent alternatives of Bookan HPP
Alternative
number
The rated
power
(MW)
The mean
annual
energy
(GW h)
Plant
factor
(PF) (%)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2 2.5
2 3.75
25
2 6.25
2 7.5
2 8.75
2 10
2 11.25
2 12.5
2 13.75
2 15
3 10
2 16.25
2 17.5
2 18.75
3 12.5
2 20
4 10
2 22.5
3 15
2 25
4 12.5
3 17.5
3 20
4 15
5
7.5
10
12.5
15
17.5
20
22.5
25
27.5
30
30
32.5
35
37.5
37.5
40
40
45
45
50
50
52.5
60
60
25.33
36.80
47.23
57.67
67.26
76.03
83.41
89.20
93.19
96.52
99.40
99.73
101.71
103.65
105.31
107.99
107.64
110.85
112.52
115.40
116.14
119.80
120.28
124.55
127.43
0.58
0.56
0.54
0.53
0.51
0.50
0.48
0.45
0.43
0.40
0.38
0.38
0.36
0.34
0.32
0.33
0.31
0.32
0.29
0.29
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.24
0.24
DCR
1.5
1
0.5
0
1
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49
Year
Fig. 4. DCR index value for 50 life cycle of Bookan HPP, interest rate:
8%.
ROE
0
1
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49
-0.5
-1
-1.5
Year
Fig. 5. ROE index value for 50 life cycle of Bookan HPP, interest rate:
8%.
400
S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402
Table 3
Economic indices of dierent alternatives with private section contribution for Bookan HPP (the ination rate is 0.2% for sales of energy and is 5% for
annual cost)
Alternative
number
The rated
power (MW)
B/C
NPV
(US$million)
B/C
NPV
(US$million)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2 2.5
2 3.75
25
2 6.25
2 7.5
2 8.75
2 10
2 11.25
2 12.5
2 13.75
2 15
3 10
2 16.25
2 17.5
2 18.75
3 12.5
2 20
4 10
2 22.5
3 15
2 25
4 12.5
3 17.5
3 20
4 15
5
7.5
10
12.5
15
17.5
20
22.5
25
27.5
30
30
32.5
35
37.5
37.5
40
40
45
45
50
50
52.5
60
60
1.70
1.76
1.82
1.87
1.93
1.99
2.07
2.18
2.31
2.45
2.60
2.60
2.75
2.92
3.05
3.05
3.17
3.17
3.40
3.40
3.65
3.65
3.76
4.11
4.11
2.28
2.21
2.12
2.07
2.02
1.95
1.87
1.78
1.68
1.58
1.49
1.49
1.41
1.33
1.27
1.27
1.23
1.23
1.14
1.14
1.06
1.06
1.03
0.94
0.94
7.41
10.49
13.02
15.57
17.67
19.34
20.20
20.41
19.59
18.43
17.08
17.08
15.34
13.45
11.78
11.78
10.44
10.44
7.25
7.25
3.54
3.54
1.83
3.88
3.88
2.11
2.17
2.25
2.31
2.37
2.45
2.55
2.69
2.86
3.04
3.21
3.21
3.40
3.60
3.76
3.76
3.90
3.90
4.20
4.20
4.51
4.51
4.64
5.07
5.07
1.82
1.76
1.70
1.66
1.61
1.56
1.50
1.43
1.34
1.26
1.19
1.19
1.12
1.06
1.02
1.02
0.98
0.98
0.91
0.91
0.85
0.85
0.82
0.75
0.75
4.63
6.46
7.86
9.28
10.34
11.08
11.19
10.78
9.58
8.11
6.50
6.50
4.58
2.54
0.68
0.68
0.92
0.92
4.53
4.53
8.55
8.55
10.44
16.58
16.58
PG = 10 and 15 MW
rated capacity of
generating units
HPPs life time
failures rate
repairs rate
N = 50 (years)
k = 1/25 (f/years)
l = 2 (r/years)
16
14
12
10
To study the eects of an increase in the number of generation units and subsequently, an increase in the cost on
the LOLE index, various combinations of generation units
are being used for the Bookan HPP, each with the following specications:
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Number of trials
Fig. 6. The graph of calculated LOLE with the Monte Carlo method for
option 4 (min and max load between 10 and 30 MW).
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S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402
Table 4
Index of reliability for the Bookan HPP
LOLE index (day/year)
Option
1
Option
2
Option
3
Option
4
101
132
180
230
10
9.5
100
130
7.2
10
10
11
6.9
6.5
12.6
15
Minimum load
(MW)
Maximum load
(MW)
5
10
10
15
25
25
30
30
The minimum and maximum load values are considered based on the loads in dierent years. The specications of the loads are as follows (a sensitivity analysis
has also been performed on the load values for more
assurance):
PLmax 35 MW average maximum load
PLmin 5 MW
4. Conclusion
1. One of the most important issues in designing an HPP is
to determine the suitable installation capacity. In this
paper, the methods of energy and the economic and reliability calculation have been presented. This algorithm
has been studied for a sample HPP.
2. The economic indices have been calculated based on the
developed algorithm and conducting a number of sensitivity analysis.
3. The reliability indices have been calculated by employing the Monte Carlo method based on an algorithm.
4. The calculated installation capacity has been obtained
by establishing a compromise between the technical,
economic and the reliability indices.
5. The aforementioned method has been applied to a sample HPP named Bookan by comparing the plant factor (PF), the B/C, NPV, USCent/kW h, and the
reliability index LOLE, so the optimal installation
capacity of 30 MW has been obtained.
Table 5
Economic analysis results on alternative no. 11 with dierent interest rates (the ination rate is 0.2% for sales of energy and is 5% for annual cost)
Interest rate(%)
Unit
10
12
14
16
18
20
Energy cost
Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 1)
Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0.75)
Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0.5)
Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0.25)
Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0)
Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 1)
Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0.75)
Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0.5)
Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0.25)
Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0)
USCent/kW h
2.02
1.94
1.78
1.62
1.46
0.73
34.17
28.41
22.64
16.88
9.74
2.60
1.49
1.37
1.25
1.13
0.56
17.08
12.84
8.60
4.35
15.23
3.21
1.19
1.09
1
0.9
0.45
6.50
3.20
0.10
3.40
18.62
3.84
0.98
0.9
0.82
0.74
0.37
0.51
3.18
5.86
8.53
20.88
4.47
0.83
0.77
0.7
0.63
0.31
5.42
7.66
9.90
12.15
22.50
5.11
0.72
0.66
0.6
0.55
0.27
9.04
10.96
12.89
14.81
23.71
5.75
0.64
0.58
0.53
0.48
0.24
11.80
13.49
15.18
16.86
24.65
6.39
0.57
0.52
0.47
0.43
0.21
13.99
15.49
16.99
18.49
25.41
US$million
US$million
US$million
US$million
US$million
Notice: P/t: Ratio of private section investment to total in percent. B/C: Benet cost ratio. NPV: Net present value.
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S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402
Appendix A
See Table A.1.
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