2014 MN Cha A Generational Futures

Generational Futures
for the
Minnesota County Highway

Accountants Association
Stephen Troutman
Futurist, Facilitator, Author, Consultant
April 2014
Copyright Stephen Troutman 2014
s.troutman@alumni.usc.edu
507-250-1611
Generations
We are all familiar with the concept of generations
Hero
GI
The "GI"s who won WWII, the "Greatest Generation"
Prophet
Boomer
The huge "Baby Boom" generation that rebelled
Nomad
Gen X
In the 1960s and 1970s, they set out to change the world and were
famously conflicted with their parents
"Generation X" is the irreverent, just do it generation
Hero
Millennial
They unified after the war to build the economic engine which
powered the US dominance for the next 50 years
They were the latch key generation, they grew to be

independent, pragmatic and self sufficient.
The Millennials want relevance and connection

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They were originally called Generation Y because they were so

different from Gen X. Also called Digital Natives
Generations Research
The material we are about to delve into is based on

work of two researcher/authors.
William Strauss and Neil Howe
Their basic research covers data:
Spanning 1584 to the 1980s of American history
Their analysis :
Identified 13 generations in American history.

Confirmed 4 generational archetypes.
Identified 4 repeating generational cycles.
Provide a model for forecasting the future in the US.
And provided explanations for some European history.

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Resources
William Strauss and Neil Howe

They wrote five books based on their research
Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069,

13th Gen : Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail?,

Published 1997, ISBN 055306682X
Millennials Rising : The Next Great Generation,

Published 1993, ISBN 0679743650
The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy,

Millennials and the Pop Culture


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What is a Generation
A generation is an identifiable cohort of people, with similar

behavioral characteristics, usually spanning a period
between 17 and 23 years.
For example:
Nomad
Generation X people are identified as in the

Nomad/Reactive Archetype* who are:
The children of an Artist generation

Born between 1961 and 1981 (21 years)
Behaviorally they are independent, practical and
confident. They are irreverent and self sufficient.
Approach: Just do It! Out to do what needs to be done.
Note: * Between their first book and their second book, the authors renamed the generational archetypes, in the example of Gen X from Reactive to Nomad)

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A Caveat on Generations
There is no standard "generations" in the literature:

In a recent book, Generation X was purported to span only 11
years, followed by Generation Y for only 9 years, with a
presumption that future generations will come faster and faster
It is up to the reader to ensure consistency:

When looking at generational information, it is important to verify
how the underlying data is tabulated, analyzed and used.
Even Strauss and Howe changed their terminology between their first
book, in 1991, and their second, in 1997. (e.g. Reactive to Nomad)
Ensure you are not comparing apples to oranges
This presentation does not make investment advice.
It presents research and concepts about broad generational behavioral trends but
provides no recommendations related your personal investment decisions

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Which Archetype* Are You?

Hero
GI
Artist
Silent
Prophet
Boomer
Nomad
Gen X
Hero
Millennial
Artist
Gen Z
The Greatest Generation - Out to work together with purpose

Archetype: Hero / Civic
The Silent Generation - Out to keep things going by consensus
Archetype: Artist / Adaptive
Baby Boom - Out to change the world
Archetype: Prophet / Idealist

Generation X - Out to do what needs to be done
Archetype: Nomad / Reactive
Born between 1982 and 2003? (21 years?)

Millennial or Generation Y - Out to work together with purpose
Archetype: Hero / Civic
Born after 2004(?)

The next Silent Generation - Out to keep things going by consensus
Archetype: Artist / Adaptive
* Archetypes are groupings with common characteristics .Generations p428

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Generations pass through time.

There are four Age Cohorts :
Childhood
Young Adult
Midlife
Elder hood
historically less important is:

Late Elder hood
ift
h
S
Child
hood
ry
e
ev
~ 0-19 years old

~ 20-39 years old
~ 40-59 years old
~ 60-79 years old
Late
Elderhood
~ 80+ years old
3
-2
7
1
Elderhood
rs
a
ye
Young
Adult
Mid
Life
Stewardship: passing on values
Leadership: directing, using values
Active: working, testing values
Dependence: growing, learning values
Note that each

age cohort
has a different
focus
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The Generational Archetypes Exist in a

Repeating Pattern
Hero
GI
The archetypes appear, one

after another, in a repeating
pattern
Artist
Prophet
Nomad
Hero
Artist

Artist
Silent
Prophet
Boom
Nomad
Gen X
With each generation, the

next archetype in the
pattern appears and joins
the cyle

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Hero
Millenl
Artist
?
With each
generational
cycle, an elder
archetype ages
and fades away.
Each Patterns Reflects A Cycle

Four repeating generational patterns are observed

Each pattern is a cycle which has distinct characteristics

The cycles, shift to the left, as each new generation comes
Cycle Dates
1929-1946
1946-1964
1964-1984
Elder hood
~ 63-83
Prophet
Nomad
Hero
Artist
Midlife
~ 42-62
Nomad
Hero
Artist
Prophet
Young Adult
~ 21-41
Hero
Artist
Prophet
Nomad
Childhood
~ 0-20
Artist
Prophet
Nomad
Hero
Cycles =
*

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point was about 1994
Crisis
High
1984-2003?
Awakening Unraveling
Characteristics of the Cycles

High innocent
Need: do what works," without complaint

e.g. 1946-1964, next about 2026-2047
Awakening passionate
Need: find meaning, "fix inner world problems

e.g. 1964-1984, next about 2048-2069
Unraveling cynical
Need: do what feels right, look out for yourself

e.g. 1908-1929 and 1983-2003
Crisis combative, then "practical

Need: grasp for solutions, then fix outer world problems

e.g. 1929-1946, predicted 2004-2023

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Moods by Cycle
Cycle:>
Age Location:
High
Awake
Unravel
Crisis
1946-64
1964~84
1984~04?
2004?~26?
Elder hood ...........

Midlife ....................
Young Adult ..........
Child ......................
Nomad
Hero
Artist
Prophet
Hero
Artist
Prophet
Nomad
Artist
Prophet
Nomad
Hero
Prophet
Nomad
Hero
Artist
Families
strong
weakening
weak
strengthng
Child Nurture
loosening
unprotect
tightening
overprotect
Gender Role Gap
maximum
narrowing
minimum
widening
Ideals
settled
discovered
debated
championed
Institutions
reinforced
attacked
eroded
founded
Culture
innocent
passionate
cynical
practical
brightening
euphoric
darkening
urgent
Views towards:

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Future Vision
Future Cohorts and Archetypes

Four repeating generational cycles in history and the future
Span>
1984-2004*
2004-2026?
2026-2047
2048-2069
Elder hood
~ 63-83
Artist
Silent
Prophet
Boom
Nomad
Gen X
Hero
Millenl
Midlife
~ 42-62
Prophet
Boom
Nomad
Gen X
Hero
Millenl
Artist
Young Adult Nomad

~ 21-41
Gen X
Hero
Millenl
Artist
Prophet
Artist
?
Prophet
Nomad
Childhood
~ 0-20
Hero
Millenl
Cycles > Unraveling Crisis

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You are here
High
Awakening
How does a Crisis Cycle unfold?

The four stages of the Crisis following historic precedent will

be:
1.
Catalyst a series of sparks point out institutional dysfunction,

foreseeable but poorly foreseen, brings urgency.
2.
Regeneracy collective action is now seen as vital, people begin to

deputize leaders to solve the problems.
3.
People start banding together looking for solutions and leaders. Ideas proliferate,
but consensus is not achieved.
Climax energy is gathered from still unmet needs and unresolved

problems, and then, when society approaches maximum civic
power, (the energy) is spent with fury
4.
The great devaluation occurs at the end of the Catalyst stage.
Society unites in an all out effort to defeat the common enemy. Total
commitment is required of everyone, and usually total war is waged.
Resolution quickly follows the Climax with the establishment of a

new order
The societal rules and norms are established to usher in the next High Cycle .
Fourth Turning p 256-258

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The Crisis Cycle Time Line

2
0
0
4
Year
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
Catalyst
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
after Catalyst and

then building until
the Climax
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
Between 2013 & 2020
Estimated for
2008, starts the
Great Devaluation
Regeneracy
Starting 1-3 years
2
0
2
1
Resolution
Climax
Estimated to
be 2020 but
could come as
early as 2014
Estimated for
2023, takes only
a few years to
firmly set the
new order after
the final Climax
About this chart:
This is a time line which plots the start and end years of the four stages of the
Crisis Cycle, based on previous Crises and the authors predictions
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Crisis Cycle - Catalyst Stage

(Part 1)
The first of four stages of the 20 year Crisis Cycle:

Catalyst Stage triggering events occur, signs of failing
culture
Runs 1-5 years
(the Crisis Cycle began around 2003)
(Catalyst predicted to end between 2005-2009)
Looks like the Unraveling Cycle, more institutional failures and

an inability to come to consensus
But, there are no paths to unification ... yet

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Catalyst Stage
Historically the Catalyst Stage is like a continuation of the
Unraveling Cycle.
Predictable, but unpredicted, failures occur.
Trusted institutions fail to deliver results.
The Great Devaluation is likely to hit Boomers just as their

first cohorts are reaching the official ages of retirement"
....perhaps 2008
(Fourth Turning p282, 1997)

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Crisis Cycle - Regeneracy Stage

(Part 2)
!
e
r
he
The
re second stage of four in the Crisis Cycle:
ea
W
Regeneracy Stage unification efforts begin

Starting 1-3 years after Catalyst
Continues until the Climax Stage

(Regeneracy starting any time after 2006, ending with the
Climax, around 2020 or earlier)
Triggering events continue, but not the final trigger
Multiple unification paths appear

These may be pragmatic or utopian or both

They may receive broad support or little
Final consensus is not achieved during Regeneracy

During the Regeneracy the people deputize leaders lead and they
will bring radical change.
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Regeneracy
All social arrangements are evaluated anew;
Pre-Crisis promises and expectations count for little.

Near the end of the Regeneracy,
Individuals are expected to comply with new standards of virtue
Those who persist in free-wheeling, self-oriented

behavior now face implacable stigma, even
punishment.
Winner-take-all arrangements give way to enforceable
new mechanisms for social sharing.
When society approaches the climax [stage]. wars become more
likely. The risk of Revolution is high
Where the new values regime had once justified

individual fury, it now justifies public fury.
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(Fourth Turning p258, 1997)
Crisis Cycle - Climax Stage

(Part 3)
The third of the four stages of the Crisis Cycle:

Climax Stage crisis peaks, society decides on one path
Usually occurs 5 years from the end of the entire Crisis Cycle
Should be sometime around 2020, or earlier

The Final Trigger occurs and could be ... almost anything:
a minor political event (like the Boston Tea

party),
a normal election (like Lincolns), or
a horrendous event (like Pearl Harbor)
The climax is human historys equivalent to a raging typhoon ...

that sucks all surrounding matter into a single swirl .... shaking society
to its roots, transforming institutions, and redirecting purposes.

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Crisis Cycle - Resolution Stage

(Part 4)
The fourth of the four stages of the Crisis Cycle:

Resolution Stage immediately following the Climax
Stage decisions are made, and society unites around them
Usually takes place in only 3 years after the final trigger of
the Climax Stage
Could be done by 2023 or earlier, certainly by 2025
The sense of community will be omnipresent

Lack of consensus will become a thing of the past
Moral order will be unquestioned,
With rights and wrongs crisply defined and obeyed
Sacrifices will be asked and given
Long standing secular problems will be addressed
A new cultural order is in place at the end of the Crisis Cycle
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History
When was the last Crisis Cycle?
Answer: The mid-twenties through WWII

1924 was the beginning of the Crisis cycle Catalyst stage

In 1929 the Stock Crash occurs and is Catalyst trigger
In 1933 the lowest point in stock prices is reached
Also in 1933, the New Deal Regeneracy is begun
In 1941 Pearl Harbor attack is the Climax trigger
By 1945 new order is in place. Resolution is complete

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History
US Stock Prices (DJIA) 1929 to 1941

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average
History
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1910 to 1960
(note: by 1941 we were back where we would have been with a normal growth curve)

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History
US Unemployment (% of working population) 1910 to 1960 (note
that he worst unemployment did not occur in 1930, but actually occurred in 1933 and was
sustained through 1938)

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression
Today's Generational Conclusions

Generational Conclusions
Generational projections of the Crisis cycle include previously
unimagined shifts in societal behavior
The failure of long trusted institutions churches, banks, etc.
The arrival the Tea party and Occupy Wall Street movements?
There will be turbulent economic times and unforeseen

economic instability ahead
Trusted economic models/tools may not work
The turbulence will span another 5-11 years
We are in for a protracted societal transformationtransformation

507250-1611
Thank you for joining me in this discussion of

Generational Futures
Keynote address topics :
* Generational Futures
(we are in the crisis phase of an 80 year cycle)
* Global Climate Change
(why it is real and what are to future effects)
* Demographics
(worldwide and US demographic impacts)
* Tools of a Futurist
(scenario planning, back casting, wild card, etc.)
* Virtual Teaming
(the issues or remoteness and practical advice)
* Matrix Management
(model for cross functional decision making )
Organizations
Stephen Troutman
Futurist
507 250 1611 cell
3210 Hill Court SW, Rochester MN 55902
http://www.linkedin.com/in/troutman
Minnesota Futurists
www.mnfuturists.org
World Future Society
www.wfs.org
More classes like this in Rochester:
www.learningisforever.net/
507-250-1611

2014 MN Cha A Generational Futures

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Generational Futures

Minnesota County Highway

We are all familiar with the concept of generations

The "GI"s who won WWII, the "Greatest Generation"

The huge "Baby Boom" generation that rebelled

"Generation X" is the irreverent, just do it generation

They were the latch key generation, they grew to be

The Millennials want relevance and connection

Copyright Stephen Troutman 2014

They were originally called Generation Y because they were so

The material we are about to delve into is based on

William Strauss and Neil Howe

Their basic research covers data:

Spanning 1584 to the 1980s of American history

Identified 13 generations in American history.

Copyright Stephen Troutman 2014

William Strauss and Neil Howe

They wrote five books based on their research

Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069,

13th Gen : Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail?,

Published 1997, ISBN 055306682X

Millennials Rising : The Next Great Generation,

Published 1993, ISBN 0679743650

The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy,

Published 1991, ISBN 0688119123

Published 2000, ISBN 0375707190

Millennials and the Pop Culture

Copyright Stephen Troutman 2014

Published 2006, ISBN 09712605

A generation is an identifiable cohort of people, with similar

Generation X people are identified as in the

The children of an Artist generation

Copyright Stephen Troutman 2014

There is no standard "generations" in the literature:

It is up to the reader to ensure consistency:

Ensure you are not comparing apples to oranges

This presentation does not make investment advice.

Copyright Stephen Troutman 2014

Which Archetype* Are You?

Born between 1901 and 1924 (24 years)

Born between 1925 and 1942 (18 years)

Born between 1943 and 1960 (18 years)

The Greatest Generation - Out to work together with purpose

Born between 1961 and 1981 (21 years)

Born between 1982 and 2003? (21 years?)

Born after 2004(?)

* Archetypes are groupings with common characteristics .Generations p428

Copyright Stephen Troutman 2014

Generations pass through time.

historically less important is:

~ 0-19 years old

~ 80+ years old

Stewardship: passing on values

Leadership: directing, using values

Active: working, testing values

Dependence: growing, learning values

Note that each

The Generational Archetypes Exist in a

The archetypes appear, one

With each generation, the

Copyright Stephen Troutman 2014

Each Patterns Reflects A Cycle

Four repeating generational patterns are observed