1

Mathematical Modeling of Building-Wide HVAC Systems

Virginia Smith
Unviersity of Virginia
Anil Aswani, Claire Tomlin
University of California, Berkeley

AbstractA significant amount of the worlds energy is used

for heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems.
This makes them an important target for energy efficiency
improvements. One step towards these goals is to find a mathematical model that accurately predicts the performance of
current systems. This is difficult as there is a large variety of
HVAC configurations used in both residential and commercial
buildings. One of the most common types of configurations is the
Variable Air Volume (VAV) system, which is commonly found in
large commercial buildings. To study this setup, we have collected
data from the fourth floor of Sutardja Dai Hall, a commercialsized building on the UC Berkeley Campus which has been
outfitted with sensor networks. We use semiparametric regression
to identify a mathematical model of temperature dynamics based
on experimental data. Using this model, we study the effects of
occupancy on temperature and isolate certain control variables
within the system. The results from this model can be used to
improve the efficiency of similar HVAC systems by helping to
determine more effective control schemes.

I. I NTRODUCTION
Buildings account for 75% of the electricity and 43% of
the greenhouse gas emissions in the United States [1], [2].
Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is the largest
building expenditure, consuming 38% of the energy within
buildings [1]. This makes HVAC systems an important target
for energy efficiency improvements.
Current work in HVAC energy reduction is moving in
several directions. One such direction is in the design of new,
more efficient equipment. However, buildings and equipment
are often replaced slowly [3]. This has made the retrofitting of
old HVAC systems an important area of research with regards
to energy reduction.
One step towards retrofitting HVAC systems is to identify a
mathematical model that enables temperature and energy control. Having an accurate model of the system allows for more
effective control schemes. However, one difficulty with this is
that there is a large variety of HVAC configurations. There
has been considerable research performed on the modeling
and control of different HVAC systems [4][9]. Our research
focuses on the modeling of Variable Air Volume (VAV) units,
which are commonly found in commercial buildings. The goal
is to develop a model for this system that accurately describes
the temperature dynamics in a building, while incorporating
specific control variables from the system. These variables
may then be later utilized when developing a control scheme
to seek efficiency improvements.
We begin by describing the Sutardja Dai Hall testbed, an
area which has been outfitted with sensor networks for the
purpose of experimentation in situ. The data from the sensors

is accessed through sMAP (Simple Monitoring and Actuation

Profile), an online system which allows for the monitoring
of live streams of data and acts as a database to store past
measurements [10].
Next, we discuss the physical characteristics of the HVAC
system at hand. This is an integral part of developing an
accurate model of the temperature dynamics, and it will likely
be scalable to many similar systems. Furthermore, it will be
important to understand the trends apparent in this data in
order to identify areas for efficiency improvements.
Observing trends in the data and understanding the physics
behind HVAC systems sheds light on the model that we
have chosen. One challenge is that the heat load due to
occupancy, equipment, and solar radiation is highly nonlinear
over time. An approach to the issue of occupancy is to combine occupancy sensor measurements with models of human
behavior [11]. A next step could be to add measurements
from equipment and weather data, as well. However, these
measurements are not easily observable or quantifiable as
parameters in a model. The scalability and computability of the
model quickly decreases, which is a potential problem when
creating a control scheme for the system.
Our solution is to use a semiparametric regression approach
[9], [12], [13] that estimates the heat load due to occupancy,
equipment, and solar radiation from temperature measurements alone. This is advantageous because it does not require
extra sensors other than sensors that are already outfitted in
the thermostat.
After developing this model, we discuss our results and
compare our predictions to actual data from the building. We
conclude by analyzing these results and describing the role the
model will play in future research.
II. S UTARDJA DAI H ALL T ESTBED
Sutardja Dai Hall is a 141,000-square-foot building on the
University of California, Berkeley campus. It was created in
2009 and is the headquarters of the Center for Information
Technology in the Interest of Society (CITRIS). The building
itself houses research labs, faculty offices, a nanofabrication
lab, an auditorium, and a cyber cafe. As a relatively new
building on campus, it was designed according to high energy
efficiency standards. Since then, it has become a popular
testbed for research related to energy efficiency within buildings, earning its reputation as a living laboratory [14].
Our research was conducted on the 4th floor of Sutardja
Dai Hall. This floor holds both public and privates offices for
a variety of disciplines, including the Berkeley Center for New

Fig. 1. Sutardja Dai Hall, 4th Floor is the testbed used for this study. The 9 VAV units on the floor (numbered above) are used to develop a mathematical
model for building-wide HVAC systems based on experimental data.

B. Sutardja Dai Hall, 4th floor

III. C HARACTERISTICS OF VAV S YSTEM

Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) control
systems are devised in order to maintain comfort within an
enclosed space. In addition to meeting a desired temperature,
this comfort is maintained by achieving a certain level of
humidity, pressure, radiant energy, air motion, and air quality
within a building [17].
Variable Air Volume (VAV) systems are one of the most
popular HVAC applications, and are often used in large
commercial buildings. VAV devices control the air quality and
temperature within a space by regulating the amount of air
delivered to it. In particular, they differ from other common
HVAC systems, such as the single-stage heat pump, by being
able to deliver a variable amount of air. Whereas single-stage
heat pumps perform in two positions (on/off), the VAV device
has the ability to deliver air at a number of different intervals.
This is popular in commercial buildings, which cool large
amounts of air at a central location and then deliver the air in
variable amounts to specific spaces.
The system that we will describe below is the single-duct,
pressure-dependent, reheat VAV system. We will begin by
describing the air handling system, which acts as a framework
for the VAV devices. We will then describe the process,
control, and feedback components of the VAV application.
These characteristics are important in understanding the basis
for the parameters of the model we have developed.

The 4th floor of Sutardja Dai Hall is comprised of one large

public area, 18 private offices, and 10 other rooms, including
bathrooms, closets, and entrance-ways. An architectural drawing of the floor plan is shown in Fig. 1. The large public
area includes cubicles and desk space. This is the area of
the floor that we have chosen to model, since actuation of
HVAC controls may only be possible in the public zones. The
numbered areas depict the 9 VAV units included in our study.
The lines show units which we assume to be adjacent, a trait
that will come into play in the model we have developed.

A. Air Handling System

The air handling system is the central HVAC unit within a
building. The main responsibility of the air handling system
is to deliver conditioned air throughout the building, while
removing exhaust air and carbon dioxide (CO2 ) from the
rooms. Most of the equipment is hidden from occupants, being
located on the rooftop and in ducts within the building [17].
Air handling equipment includes outside air dampers, mixed
air dampers, heating coils, cooling coils, and supply air fans.

Media and the I4Energy Center. The advantage of developing

a model based on data from this floor is that it provides a
setup which is easily scalable to building-wide systems.
The entire building has been equipped with sensors that
measure data on utilities such as HVAC, lighting, and plug load
power usage. A server (LoCal) gathers this data and stores it in
a Simple Measurement and Actuation Profile (sMAP) database
[10]. Data from this server is then used in order to develop
our model.

A. LoCal
The Berkeley LoCal project aims to produce a network
architecture for localized energy reduction, generation, and
sharing by studying how pervasive information can change
the nature of these processes [16]. A key component of
this project is the use of sMAP to exchange physical data
about the systems involved. We access measurements from the
BACnet in Sutardja Dai Hall through the sMAP interface. This
provides measurements for the temperature set points, actual
room temperatures, damper and valve positions, and weather,
amongst other things.

Fig. 2. An example of an air handling system. The air handling system

provides a framework used to supply air to the VAV units throughout the
building.

a room. It consists of a thin metal sheet, rotated on an axis

by an actuator. As shown in Fig. 3, if the damper is set at 90
degrees, or 0% open, the damper is fully shut and no air is
supplied to the room. When the damper is set to 0 degrees, or
100% open, the maximum amount of air is released [17]. The
amount of air flow versus damper position is shown in Fig. 4.
The second component of the VAV box is the heating
coil. If necessary, the heating coil reheats the supply air
before it is released in the room. Though this is a seemingly
counterintuitive feature, it is convenient when only a few
rooms may require less cooling than usual. This adds diversity
to the system and better utilizes the supply air. The reheat
coil also serves the purpose of improving air volume and
velocity. However, here we can already see one area for energy
efficiency improvements in the system: If there is too much
simultaneous heating and cooling between the damper/heating
coil, energy will be wasted.

These mechanisms are actuated by air handling controls, which

operate through multiple terminals in order to sequence the air
handling process [17].
The air handling process, shown in Fig. 2, works in the
following way: First, outdoor air is mixed with the return air of
the system. The pressure of this air is determined by the supply
air fan. The air is then heated/cooled to a preset temperature,
and it is released into specific spaces through the VAV devices.
The exhaust air from the room is then sent into the ducts
according to the exhaust fan speed, and it is returned to begin
the process again.
B. VAV Unit
The responsibility of the VAV unit is to release conditioned
supply air from the duct into a specific space. There are often
multiple VAV units on each floor of a building, and the units
may vary in size and performance based on the temperature
dynamics of the room they service.
The two main components of a VAV box include the damper
and heating coil. The damper is a mechanical device that
allows for a variable amount of supply air to be released into

Fig. 3.

A Variable Air Volume (VAV) unit with reheat capabilities.

Fig. 4. The characteristics of the VAV damper blade. There is a nonlinear

relationship between the amount of air supplied to a room (air flow) and the
position of the damper (angle).

C. The VAV Process

The operation of the VAV cooling-only control system
works in the following way: First, the VAV controller monitors
the temperature in the room. If the room is warm, the VAV
controller opens the supply air damper to allow more cold air
into the room. If the room is cold, the controller may close
the supply air damper or open the valve on the reheat coil.
However, if the room is occupied, the VAV damper cannot be
fully shut. This is because the VAV controller must maintain
a minimum amount of fresh air at all times [17].
The control scheme for such a unit is complex and must
withstand several different types of heating loads. These
include interior loads (e.g., people, lights, and computers),
exterior loads (e.g., outdoor climate and negative loads),
and negative loads generated by the control system. These
include interior loads in the system such as people, lights, and
computers, exterior loads generated by the outdoor climate,
and negative loads generated by the control system attempting
to maintain a temperature setpoint. The system functions by
using sensors to detect room temperature, and then actuating
the device accordingly.

Fig. 5. Temperature, damper position, and heating coil values for VAV units in zone 4 and zone 6. The values shown are measured over a two-week period
from 05/25/2011-06/08/2011.

IV. M ODEL OF T EMPERATURE DYAMICS

There are many challenges with creating a mathematical
model for the VAV units at hand. One is that HVAC systems themselves are large and highly variable. The system
parameters are complex, and the model is often non-linear with
respect to the temperature dynamics. The particular application
of this model presents another challenge, which is that there
is a trade-off between the complexity of the model and its
computability. While we aim to create a robust model of the
system, it cannot be too complex, or it may ultimately risk the
effectiveness of using the model within a control scheme.
These challenges are compounded by the fact that we have
created a predictive model using experimental data. This is
difficult because the raw data is not always rich enough to
allow for robust model development. Furthermore, the data
itself presents difficulties from limitations and errors inherent
within the sensor networks.
The model that we have chosen for this system is a
static, linear model. We develop the model using a two-step
procedure which allows us to determine the heating of room
due to occupancy, equipment, and solar radiation. The first step
of the development uses constrained least-squares regression
to model the temperature dynamics due to the weather, damper
position, heating coil, and the temperature in adjacent zones.
The next step estimates the remaining heat load by iteratively
determining the error term from this model. This procedure
represents an approximate form of semiparametric regression.

to 50-minute intervals. There are occasional dropped points

in the data, and the sampling rates are inconsistent over long
periods of time. These characteristics are important to note
when discussing the model that we have chosen. An example
of the weather, damper, heating coil, and temperature readings
for two zones is shown in Fig. 5.
The model is a static, linear model in which the temperature
for a particular zone is based on the current weather, damper
position, heating coil, temperature in adjacent zones, and
the heating due to occupancy/equipment/solar radiation (1).
Temperature dynamics within a building are non-linear [7].
However, because the temperature and airflow of the system
are operating within a narrow regime, it is reasonable to
approximate this activity with a linear model.

T [i] = W [i] + D[i] + H[i] +

n
X

j Tj [i] + q + q[i] (1)

j=0

The reason that we have chosen a static model is twofold.

Firstly, we want to see how accurate a model we can develop
using a relatively simpler static system. Secondly, we suspect
that the sampling rate of the data may be low enough that the
dynamics within the room appear to be static. This conclusion
is augmented by the fact that there are inconsistencies within
the sampling rate itself, which makes a dynamic fit more
complex.
B. Constrained Least-Squares Regression

A. Model Characteristics
The parameters of the model include the weather (W ),
position of the damper (D), position of the heating coil (H),
temperature in adjacent zones (Tj ), and the heat load due to
occupancy/equipment/solar radiation (
q , q). The weather used
is a temperature measurement recorded from the rooftop of
Cory Hall, the building directly adjacent to Sutardja Dai Hall.
We interpolate this data so that the sampling rates match those
of the sensor networks from inside the building.
The measurements of the damper, heating coil, and thermostat temperature are read from the Sutardja Dai Hall BACnet
and recorded in the sMAP database. These measurements are
taken at variety of different sampling rates, from 15-minute

Least-squares regression is used to determine coefficients

for the first stage of the model (2) where T represents the current temperature at a given zone, W represents the weather at
that zone, D represents the damper position of the VAV unit, H
represents the position of the heating coil in the VAV unit, and
q represents the heat load due to occupancy/equipment/solar
radiation that is assumed to be constant over the given time
period. The terms , , , and j represent the coefficients
determined from this least-squares regression.

T [i] = W [i] + D[i] + H[i] +

n
X
j=0

j Tj [i] + q

(2)

Fig. 6. An estimate of the heat load due to occupancy, equipment, and solar
radiation for each of the 9 VAV units. The values have been calculated for a
two week interval, from 05/25/2011-06/08/2011.

Fig. 7. The predicted (solid) and measured (dashed) temperatures for a two
week interval. Temperatures are calculated for each of the 9 VAV units, from
05/25/2011-06/08/2011.

It is important to note that in this setup, we impose

constraints on the coefficients for the model. The reason that
this is a necessary step is that the data from the parameters is
not always rich enough to excite the system. This is evident in
Fig. 5, which shows the damper and heating coil measurements
for two zones over a two week period. In zone 4, the damper
has almost no variability over the two-week period, whereas in
zone 6, the damper changes frequently. In contrast, the heating
coil for zone 4 changes throughout the time period, whereas
in zone 6, the heating coil remains at 0% for the entire two
weeks.
This is a problem because regular least-squares regression
tends to overcompensate for this lack of richness in the data.
This results in coefficients that are not physically representative of the system. For example, the coefficients for the
damper position in multiple zones were positive, which is
counterintuitive to the fact that as you open the damper, more
cold air is let into the room, making the temperature go down.
Similarly, some of the coefficients for the heating coil were
large negative numbers, which is not physically representative
of the fact that heating the air will make the temperature
increase.
Adding coefficient constraints has the effect of making the
coefficients physically representative of the system, but also
greatly improves the accuracy of the simulation. The accuracy
of the model at this stage is important for our assumption;
we assume that most of the temperature dynamics may be
explained due to the weather, damper, heating coil, adjacent
temperatures, and constant occupancy. This presents us with
a good estimate of the temperature, which we then use to
calculate the remaining heat load present in the error term.

to calculate the heat load of these highly variable parameters

without having to use any sensors other than the temperature
sensor in order to measure this data.
Before adding this term into the model we smooth the error
term with kernel smoothing regression. This eliminates the
noise in the error and gives us a better estimate of the heat
load due to occupancy/equipment/solar radiation. Furthermore,
this provides the predictive model with a good fit that will be
necessary in implementing control schemes in the future.
The plot for the heat load due to occupancy/equipment/solar
radiation is shown in Fig. 6. The units are given in degrees
Celsius, and the term is highly nonlinear with respect to time.
The term fluctuates on a daily basis, matching intuition that the
heat load due to occupancy/equipment/solar radiation increases
throughout the day and decreases in the night. This follows the
pattern of activity in the room, which is active during the day
when students and faculty are present, and remains relatively
empty at night. Furthermore, the term fluctuates on a weekly
basis, matching the trend that students and faculty will be less
active in the building on the weekends and towards the end of
the week.
Zone
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

RMS Error ( C)
0.310
0.110
0.168
0.149
0.111
0.128
0.127
0.137
0.151

TABLE I
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FROM THE PREDICTED RESULTS (7)

C. Impact of Occupancy/Equipment/Solar Radiation

Using the model fit from constrained least-squares regression in the first stage, we can iteratively calculate the error
in our prediction. Assuming that we have described the temperature dynamics accurately due to everything other than the
occupancy/equipment/solar radiation heat load, we can assume
that this error term gives a rough estimate of the heating due
to these factors. This is advantageous because it allows us

V. A NALYSIS
Visually examining the measured and predicted temperatures (7) highlights a few modeling errors. One is that the predicted temperatures fail to predict periods of rapidly changing
temperature. However, because the temperatures within this
region are acting within a narrow range, this rapid change

is likely to appear as noise to the system, and is reasonably

captured by the predictive model.
Another visible error is that the predicted temperatures fail
to capture the temperature magnitude in some cases throughout
the week. The largest error is about 2 degrees Celsius, but
the average error is .1172 degrees Celsius. Although this may
appear large, it is still within a reasonable interval to use a
control scheme and ensure a comfortable temperature to the
occupants.
The prediction error is shown in Fig. 8, and the root-meansquare error for each zone is summarized in Table 1. The rootmean-square error for this analysis is low, and the simulation
error appears relatively random with respect to the temperature
dynamics.

Fig. 8. The error from the predicted results (7) for each of the 9 VAV units
over the two-week period 05/25/2011-06/08/2011.

VI. C ONCLUSIONS
We have presented the Sutardja Dai Hall testbed, studied the
characteristics of Variable Air Volume (VAV) HVAC, identified
a mathematical model of the system, and discussed the impact
of our results. The approximate semiparametric model that
we have developed provides an accurate way to predict the
temperature in a zone based on a few, accessible parameters
in the system. It also provides us with a way to calculate
highly variable terms, such as the heat load due to occupancy,
equipment, and solar radiation, without the need to explicitly
measure these terms.
These results may be used in future work, in order to
develop a control scheme for the HVAC system. The model
gives us better insight into the dynamics of the control scheme,
and allows for a more efficient design. This control scheme
may then be used to create a more energy efficient design for
the VAV HVAC units. This type of work is a crucial step in
the development of energy-agile systems that can ultimately
be used to quell our dependency on fossil fuels.
VII. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to thank Anil Aswani, Claire Tomlin, Jay
Taneja, Andrew Krioukov, and David Culler, LoCal, ActionWebs, and the SUPERB-ITS REU.

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