Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

ASEAN: Looking Back FortyEight Years

Carlyle A. Thayer
August 5, 2015
We seek your assessment of the following issues:
1 On the occasion of 48th anniversary of ASEANs establishment, what is the most
successful achievement of this association?
ANSWER: ASEANs most successful achievement was to expand its initial
membership to include all Southeast Asian states, with Timor-Lestes membership
pending. This has enabled ASEAN to claim centrality in Southeast Asian affairs, to
negotiate an ASEAN Free Trade Area, and to move forward in creating an ASEAN
Community. ASEAN as a regional organisation has made major contributions to
peace, stability and development among its members and the region.
2 How do you assess ASEANs unity? Has ASEAN made progress?
ANSWER: There is considerable unity among ASEANs ten members on a range of
issues because of ASEANs consensus principle. In the economic sphere ASEAN has
adopted the N minus x principle, that is, when a number of ASEAN states agree on
an issue (N) they can proceed without the members who have not yet agreed (minus
x). ASEAN has reached a very high percentage of the goals it has set to become an
Economic Community. Of course there are contentious issues, such as relations with
the major powers, and the South China Sea issue in particular, on which ASEAN
member states disagree. ASEAN has largely overcome the divisions evident in 2012
when Cambodia was the ASEAN Chair. ASEAN foreign ministers in 2014 issued a
stand-alone statement on the South China Sea over Chinas deployment of the HD
981 oil exploration rig. This was the first time ASEAN supported Vietnam in its
dispute with China involving the Paracel islands. Since then ASEAN leaders have
expressed their serious concern about Chinas actions in constructing artificial islands
but without naming China. ASEANs progress is hampered by the differing
capacities of its member states. ASEAN, however, has put itself in the drivers seat
with respect to regional affairs and relations with the major powers. ASEAN is not a
power bloc but a diplomatic community.
3 How will ASEAN solidarity fare in coming years? What would you recommend so
ASEAN can overcome internal differences?
ANSWER: ASEAN members are behind forming an ASEAN Community at the end of
this year. There is greatest solidarity over two of the three pillars Economic

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Community and Socio-Cultural Community. ASEAN has less solidarity over the
Political-Security Community because each of its members has different national
interests and different relations with major powers. Claimant states involved in the
South China Sea disputes have different interests than the non-claimant states. At
present ASEAN can only solve internal differences through inclusive dialogue and
consensus. The creation of the ASEAN Community, coupled with the ASEAN Charter,
may make possible majority decision making. But the time is not yet ripe. Individual
states that have special concerns must diplomatically lobby other states for support.
There is no silver bullet that will solve all of ASEANs disagreements. ASEAN states
must continue to implement the ASEAN Way and gradually build up a sense of
community where all states give higher priority to common interests.
4 Do you think Cambodia will push its border issue with Vietnam and raise
tensions?
ANSWER: The Cambodian border issue is being well-managed at the current time.
Vietnam is playing a deft diplomatic hand. But this issue is also a political football
in domestic Cambodian politics. The opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party
seeks to stir up trouble over the border rather than let officials from both sides
resolve outstanding issues. Prime Minister Hun Sen is under domestic pressure to be
seen as taking action to defend his countrys sovereignty. As long as both sides
refrain from upsetting the status quo and move expeditiously to complete the
demarcation of the border the present border tensions will recede.
5 What is the level of defence co-operation between Cambodia with China? Are
there any negative consequences for ASEAN?
ANSWER: The level of China-Cambodia defence cooperation is greater than for any
other country in Southeast Asia. China plays a major role in training the Royal
Cambodian Armed Forces and in advancing Chinese language education both in
Cambodia and in China. While this is more extensive than other ASEAN members, all
ASEAN members also promote defence cooperation with China. One purpose of
defence cooperation is to gain influence in the recipient country. In the past, such as
during the recent border skirmishing between Cambodia and Thailand, China was
circumspect and did not take sides.
ASEAN and China are strategic partners and cooperate in the ASEAN Regional Forum
and the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus. The fact that China has a
comparatively large defence cooperation program with Cambodia is not a threat to
ASEAN. China also pursues defence cooperation with Thailand, Vietnam and other
Southeast Asian states. China cannot afford to take sides when two states have a
disagreement. It is in Chinas interest that ASEAN remain unified but not too strong
to stand up to China.
6 What do you see as Vietnams role in ASEAN? What initiatives should Vietnam
make to contribute to win-win benefits?
ANSWER: Vietnam has emerged as a core player in ASEAN because of its strategic
vision and domestic stability. This stands in contrast to Thailand, a founding member,
that has experienced repeated domestic instability. Vietnam can play an important
political-diplomatic role in promoting ASEAN unity in its relations with major powers.

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Vietnam can share its extensive experience in dealing with China with other ASEAN
states. Vietnam also needs to get its domestic house in order by carrying out further
reforms of the economy and make Vietnamese industries competitive
internationally. The stronger Vietnams economy becomes the more Vietnam can
promote win-win economic relations with the major world economies and the states
of Southeast Asia.
7 Have you seen ASEAN display its centrality in Southeast Asia in its relations with
other powerful countries? Can you give examples?
ANSWER: When President George Bush was in office he did not attend the 1st
ASEAN-US Leaders Summit. When he offered to host this meeting at his ranch in
Texas, without Myanmar, ASEAN refused to attend. A year ago when the U.S. pushed
for a freeze on activities in the South China Sea, ASEAN did not support the US
position because China opposed it. ASEAN joined with China in forming the ASEAN
Plus Three but then went on to found the East Asia Summit (EAS). Later ASEAN
expanded the EAS to include Russia and the United States despite Chinas objections
to the US as an outside power. China has repeatedly pressed ASEAN not to raise the
South China Sea issue multilaterally but his had not deterred ASEAN from reaching a
common position that is sometimes critical of China without naming it. Finally, the
ASEAN Chair and Secretary General are invited to meetings of the Group of 20.
8 How does the South China Sea issue affect ASEAN? How can ASEAN have one
voice and not be dominated by other countries?
ANSWER: ASEAN cannot play a role in sovereignty disputes involving its members
and China. The question of sovereignty can only be solved directly by the countries
concerned. ASEAN, however, can play a role in confidence building and conflict
management. ASEAN has moved beyond the disarray of 2012 when Cambodia, as
ASEAN Chair, refused to include a reference to the South China Sea in its joint
statement. ASEAN has reached agreement on fundamental principles thanks to a
diplomatic initiative by Indonesia. In September 2013, China agreed to consult with
ASEAN under the framework of the Joint Working Group (JWG) to Implement the
Declaration on Conduct in the South China Sea (DOC). Since then ASEAN and China
have held fifteen meeting of the JWG and nine meetings of ASEAN-China Senior
Officials. Increasingly ASEAN has shown impatience at the slow progress of these
consultations and is now pushing China to decouple consultations on the COC from
discussions on the DOC. China cannot dominate ASEAN and dictate what ASEAN
should do on the South China Sea; but ASEAN can only use political and diplomatic
means to influence China. This means that China can determine the pace and scope
of progress on implementing the DOC and adopting a COC.
9 How do you asses Chinas role in the region? Is there any likelihood that ASEAN
will fragment? What should ASEAN do to prevent this worst-case scenario?
ANSWER: China aims to become the pre-eminent economic and military power in
East Asia by marginalizing the United States. China does not aim to undermine
ASEAN. A unified ASEAN is useful to China so long as it accommodates but does not
oppose Chinas preferences and interests. China seeks to further institutionalize its
economic, political, security, defence and socio-cultural relations with ASEAN in such
a way that Chinas paramountcy is respected. China will respect the autonomy of

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individual Southeast Asian states so long as they are compliant. China will come
down hard on any Southeast Asian state that acts against Chinas wishes. China will
also attempt to block the influence of major powers in the region if the major
powers attempt to unite countries to oppose China. ASEAN can only prevent itself
from falling into Chinas orbit by encouraging the major powers to balance China.
But ASEAN cannot align with any one power against the other. In other words,
ASEAN must continually strive to retain its centrality in regional affairs and thus
encourage the major powers to respect ASEANs role. All the major powers have an
interest in preventing another major power from dominating ASEAN.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, ASEAN: Looking Back Forty-Eight Years,

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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
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