ALBERTA ISSUES

[AUGUST 2015]

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 3,075 Albertans by Smart IVR on August

28, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.
Margin of error: +/- 1.77%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by
geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2

ALBERTANS SIDE WITH HARPER; MOST STILL SUPPORT ROYALTY REVIEW

August 21, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds most Albertans siding with
Stephen Harper over Rachel Notley and believe Harper is the best defender of Albertas interests. With
3,075 respondents the Mainstreet Research poll conducted for Postmedia has a margin of error of +/1.77%, 19/20.
Premier Notley's approval is staying fairly strong, despite her disapproval numbers increasing significantly
since her election back in May, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research. Recent economic
factors, primarily a continued slide in oil prices, are likely a factor in the increased disapproval. These prices
will affect Alberta's resource economy negatively, how the Notley government responds to this new
challenge will be the first big test of her Government. So far, Albertans are waiting to see the specifics of
her plan which will be unveiled in the fall budget.
The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll found only 40% of Albertans are optimistic about their familys upcoming
financial situation a drop of 12% from May. Even fewer, 21%, are optimistic about Albertas economy, a drop
of 20% from May.
An increasing number of Albertans are pessimistic about the year ahead, and optimistic Albertans are
decreasing amid a prolonged oil price slump. The number of those who dont know and are uncertain has
spiked up. Its worth noting that Albertans are less optimistic for both the province and their own
households since we polled the questions in January, continued Maggi.
It appears that in the battle between the Premier and the Prime Minister, most Albertan's side with
Stephen Harper, but not as overwhelmingly as might be expected. More Albertans also believe that
Stephen Harper is a better advocate for their Province. Premier Notley fares best in, no surprise, Edmonton
(48% Notley, 36% Harper) where Stephen Harper fares worst. Meanwhile Harper receives his highest score
in the conflict from Calgary (59%).
Most Albertans, close to 50% (Actual: 47%) still support the governments royalty review. That is down
from 65% in May but represents a significant amount of support for the policy in very tough economic
times for the province, Maggi finished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
-30Available for interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?

12%

45%

42%

Approve
APPROVE: 45%
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Not Sure

Disapprove

DISAPPROVE: 42%
18-34
27%
15%
11%
27%
20%
382

35-49
26%
19%
10%
38%
6%
674

Calgary
21%
19%
20%
33%
8%
1161

NOT SURE: 12%

50-64
32%
16%
17%
28%
7%
992

65+ Male Female

35% 30% 29%
15% 15%
18%
10% 12%
12%
27% 31%
30%
13% 12%
11%
1027 1470 1605

Edmonton
39%
16%
10%
17%
18%
1001

Rest of AB
30%
15%
10%
34%
12%
913

A4

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
May

July
Approve

Disapprove

August
Not Sure

A5

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Stephen Harper is handling his job as Prime Minister?
6%

52%

42%

Approve
APPROVE: 52%
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Not Sure

Disapprove

DISAPPROVE: 42%
18-34
31%
19%
15%
23%
13%
382

35-49
29%
22%
20%
27%
1%
674

Calgary
41%
22%
9%
24%
3%
1161

NOT SURE: 6%
50-64
34%
19%
11%
33%
2%
992

65+ Male Female

38% 34%
31%
16% 18%
21%
15% 16%
15%
25% 26%
28%
6%
7%
6%
1027 1470 1605

Edmonton
27%
14%
12%
39%
8%
1001

Rest of AB
30%
20%
19%
24%
7%
913

A6

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your
own familys financial situation?

32%
40%

27%
Optimistic

OPTIMISTIC: 40%
OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Not Sure

Pessimistic
PESSIMISTIC: 27%
18-34
31%
29%
40%
382

35-49
47%
31%
23%
674

Calgary
43%
28%
30%
1161

NOT SURE: 32%

50-64
48%
22%
30%
992

65+ Male Female

37% 40%
41%
26% 28%
27%
37% 32%
32%
1027 1470 1605

Edmonton
37%
31%
32%
1001

Rest of AB
41%
26%
33%
913

A7

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your
own familys financial situation?

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
January
Optimistic

May
Pessimistic

August
Not Sure

A8

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the
state of the Alberta economy?

21%

23%

56%
Optimistic
OPTIMISTIC: 21%
OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Not Sure

Pessimistic
PESSIMISTIC: 56%
18-34
20%
50%
30%
382

35-49
27%
63%
10%
674

Calgary
22%
58%
20%
1161

NOT SURE: 23%

50-64
17%
56%
27%
992

65+ Male Female

19% 23%
19%
53% 54%
57%
28% 23%
24%
1027 1470 1605

Edmonton
19%
56%
25%
1001

Rest of AB
21%
55%
24%
913

A9

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the
state of the Alberta economy?

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
January
Optimistic

May
Pessimistic

August
Not Sure

A10

Do you approve or disapprove of the provincial government conducting a review of royalty

rates foroil and natural gas produced on Crown-owned land?

13%

47%

39%

Approve
APPROVE: 47%
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Not Sure

Disapprove
DISAPPROVE: 39%
18-34
32%
16%
12%
25%
17%
382

35-49
29%
14%
14%
31%
12%
674

Calgary
25%
18%
12%
34%
10%
1161

NOT SURE: 13%

50-64
31%
21%
9%
29%
10%
992

65+ Male Female

30% 28%
32%
18% 18%
16%
17% 12%
12%
22% 28%
27%
13% 14%
13%
1027 1470 1605

Edmonton
42%
14%
9%
19%
15%
1001

Rest of AB
29%
17%
13%
27%
14%
913

A11

Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper recentlycriticized the fiscal policies of Premier
Rachel Notleys NDP government in Alberta. The provincial government responded by criticizing the financial record of the federal Conservative government.Who do you most support in
this dispute, Stephen Harper or Rachel Notley?

5%
9%

50%

36%

Harper

STEPHEN HARPER
RACHEL NOTLEY
NEITHER
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STEPHEN HARPER
RACHEL NOTLEY
NEITHER
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Notley

Neither
18-34
51%
36%
7%
6%
382

Not Sure

35-49
52%
30%
11%
7%
674

Calgary
59%
30%
8%
2%
1161

50-64
48%
41%
8%
3%
992

65+ Male Female

47% 51%
50%
38% 34%
37%
10%
9%
9%
4%
6%
5%
1027 1470 1605

Edmonton
36%
48%
9%
7%
1001

Rest of AB
51%
34%
9%
6%
913

A12

In your opinion, who is a better defender of Albertas interests: Stephen Harper or Rachel
Notley?

10%
6%

50%

33%

Harper
STEPHEN HARPER
RACHEL NOTLEY
NEITHER
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STEPHEN HARPER
RACHEL NOTLEY
NEITHER
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Notley

Neither
18-34
54%
25%
6%
14%
382

Not Sure

35-49
50%
33%
6%
11%
674

Calgary
60%
27%
8%
5%
1161

50-64
45%
42%
7%
6%
992

65+ Male Female

51% 50% 50%
34% 31%
35%
6%
7%
6%
8%
12%
9%
1027 1470 1605

Edmonton
35%
48%
6%
11%
1001

Rest of AB
51%
31%
6%
12%
913

A13

Oil prices have dropped sharply in recent weeks. The provincial government says it will release a
jobs and economic stimulus package later this fall. In response to falling oil prices, which of the
following directions do you think the provincial government should take: cut spending levels to
not increase the provincial deficit, maintain or increase spending levels to protect public services, even if it increases the size of the deficit, or raise taxes and other revenue sources,to not
increase the provincialdeficit?

26%

38%

10%

26%

Cut

CUT SPENDING
MAINTAIN/INCREASE SPENDING
RAISE REVENUE SOURCES
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
CUT SPENDING
MAINTAIN/INCREASE SPENDING
RAISE REVENUE SOURCES
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Maintain

Not Sure

Raise
18-34
41%
25%
10%
24%
382

35-49
40%
23%
9%
28%
674

Calgary
44%
23%
10%
23%
1161

50-64
35%
30%
13%
22%
992

65+ Male Female

35% 40% 37%
26% 25%
27%
9%
11%
10%
30% 25%
26%
1027 1470 1605

Edmonton
31%
26%
15%
29%
1001

Rest of AB
38%
27%
9%
26%
913

A14

SCRIPT
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Stephen Harper is handling his job as Prime Minister?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your
own familys financial situation?
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not sure
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the
state of the Alberta economy?
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the provincial government conducting a review of royalty
rates foroil and natural gas produced on Crown-owned
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure

A15

SCRIPT (CONT.)
Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper recentlycriticized the fiscal policies of
Premier Rachel Notleys NDP government in Alberta. The provincial government responded
by criticizing the financial record of the federal Conservative government.Who do you
most support in this dispute, Stephen Harper or Rachel Notley?
Stephen Harper
Rachel Notley
Neither
Not sure
In your opinion, who is a better defender of Albertas interests:
Stephen Harper or Rachel Notley?
Stephen Harper
Rachel Notley
Neither
Not sure
Oil prices have dropped sharply in recent weeks. The provincial government says it will
release a jobs and economic stimulus package later this fall. In response to falling oil
prices, which of the following directions do you think the provincial government should
take: cut spending levels to notincrease the provincialdeficit, maintain or increase
spending levels to protect public services, even if it increases the size of the deficit, raise
taxes and other revenue sources,to not increase the provincialdeficit?
Cutting spending to not increase the provincial deficit
Maintaining or increasing spending to protect public services
Raising taxes and other revenue sources to not increase the provincial deficit
Not sure

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.

2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved