Starbucks

Analytics Exercise: Forecasting Supply Chain
Demand
Starbucks Corporation
Questions:
1. Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using
five weeks and three weeks past data. The past data in each region are given
below (week -1 is the week before week 1 in the table, -2 is two weeks before
week 1, etc.). Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13
weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute deviation,
mean absolute percent error and tracking signal as criteria.
Answer:
WEE
K
Atla
nta
Bost
on
Chic
ago
Dalla
s
LA
Tota
l
WEEK
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
0
1
1
1
2
1
3
45
38
30
58
37
33
45
37
38
55
30
18
58
47
37
23
55
40
62
18
48
40
35
26
35
41
40
46
48
55
18
62
44
30
45
50
62
22
72
44
48
44
34
22
55
48
72
62
28
27
95
35
45
47
42
35
40
64
43
27
42
35
40
51
64
70
65
55
43
38
47
42
43
2
5
4
40
1
5
3
54
2
4
4
46
2
5
2
35
1
9
8
32
1
6
2
43
1
9
9
54
1
8
9
40
2
1
3
46
2
4
6
74
2
8
8
40
2
4
5
35
2
0
4
45
2
3
6
38
2
5
7
48
1
7
4
56
2
4
8
50
2
2
9
Bosto
ns
Deman
d
Foreca
st
Deman
d3
Weeks
Moving
Averag
e
RSFE
Deviati
on
TS
Abs
Deviati
on
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
62
18
48
40
35
42.67
35.33
-2.67
-0.33
2.67
0.33
26
41.00
-15.00
15.00
35
33.67
1.33
1.33
3
4
5
6
7
8
41
40
46
48
55
18
32.00
34.00
38.67
42.33
44.67
49.67
9.00
6.00
7.33
5.67
10.33
-31.67
9.00
6.00
7.33
5.67
10.33
31.67
-2.67
-3.00
18.00
16.67
-7.67
-1.67
5.67
11.33
21.67
-
-0.30
-0.34
-2.01
-1.87
-0.86
-0.19
0.63
1.27
2.43
-1.12
Foreca
st
Deman
d5
Weeks
Moving
Averag
e
Deviati
on
Abs
Deviati
on
40.60
-14.60
14.60
33.40
1.60
1.60
36.80
35.40
35.40
37.60
42.00
46.00
4.20
4.60
10.60
10.40
13.00
-28.00
4.20
4.60
10.60
10.40
13.00
28.00
RSFE
14.60
13.00
-8.80
-4.20
6.40
16.80
29.80
1.80
TS
-1.37
-1.22
-0.83
-0.40
0.60
1.58
2.80
0.17
9
10
11
12
13
Averag
e
Deman
d
62
44
30
45
50
40.33
45.00
41.33
45.33
39.67
21.67
1.00
11.33
0.33
10.33
MAD
20.60
1.80
15.40
3.20
10.20
8.93
MAD
10.63
MAPE
22%
MAPE
26%
Forecast
Demand 3
Weeks
Moving
Average
Deviati
on
Abs
Deviati
on
WEEK
Chicag
os
Demand
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
62
22
72
44
48
52.00
46.00
-8.00
2.00
8.00
2.00
44
54.67
-10.67
10.67
34
45.33
-11.33
11.33
22
42.00
-20.00
20.00
55
33.33
21.67
21.67
48
37.00
11.00
11.00
6
7
72
62
41.67
58.33
30.33
3.67
30.33
3.67
28
60.67
-32.67
32.67
27
54.00
-27.00
27.00
10
11
12
95
35
45
39.00
50.00
52.33
56.00
-15.00
-7.33
56.00
15.00
7.33
13
47
58.33
-11.33
11.33
Averag
e
Deman
d
47.89
MAD
17.87
MAPE
37%
WEEK
Dallas
s
Demand
-5
-4
-3
-2
42
35
40
64
10.00
11.67
10.67
-0.67
-1.00
9.33
20.60
-1.80
-15.40
3.20
10.20
41.28
21.67
-1.00
-11.33
-0.33
10.33
1.31
1.19
-0.07
-0.11
1.04
41.40
45.80
45.40
41.80
39.80
22.40
20.60
5.20
8.40
18.60
2.11
1.94
0.49
0.79
1.75
Forecast
Demand
5 Weeks
Moving
Average
Deviati
on
Abs
Deviati
on
RSFE
TS
-0.93
49.6
-5.60
5.60
-5.60
-0.30
-1.57
46
-12.00
12.00
-17.60
-0.95
-2.69
48.4
-26.40
26.40
-44.00
-2.39
-1.47
38.4
16.60
16.60
-27.40
-1.49
-0.86
40.6
7.40
7.40
-20.00
-1.08
0.84
1.04
40.6
46.2
31.40
15.80
31.40
15.80
11.40
27.20
0.62
1.47
-0.78
51.8
-23.80
23.80
3.40
0.18
-2.29
53
-26.00
26.00
-22.60
-1.23
0.84
0.00
-0.41
47.4
56.8
49.4
47.60
-21.80
-4.40
47.60
21.80
4.40
25.00
3.20
-1.20
1.36
0.17
-0.07
-1.04
46
1.00
1.00
-0.20
-0.01
MAD
18.45
MAPE
0.39
Deviati
on
Abs
Deviati
on
RSFE
TS
RSFE
TS
-8.00
-6.00
16.67
28.00
48.00
26.33
15.33
15.00
18.67
14.00
41.00
15.00
0.00
-7.33
18.67
-0.45
-0.34
Forecast
Demand 3
Weeks
Moving
Average
Deviati
on
Abs
Deviati
on
RSFE
TS
39.00
25.00
25.00
25.00
2.25
Forecast
Demand
5 Weeks
Moving
Average
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Averag
e
Deman
d
43
27
42
35
40
51
64
70
65
55
43
38
47
42
46.33
49.00
44.67
37.33
34.67
39.00
42.00
51.67
61.67
66.33
63.33
54.33
45.33
42.67
-3.33
-22.00
-2.67
-2.33
5.33
12.00
22.00
18.33
3.33
-11.33
-20.33
-16.33
1.67
-0.67
3.33
22.00
2.67
2.33
5.33
12.00
22.00
18.33
3.33
11.33
20.33
16.33
1.67
0.67
MAD
MAPE
11.11
24%
Forecast
Demand 3
Weeks
Moving
Average
Deviati
on
Abs
Deviati
on
21.67
-0.33
-3.00
-5.33
0.00
12.00
34.00
52.33
55.67
44.33
24.00
7.67
9.33
8.67
1.95
-0.03
-0.27
-0.48
0.00
1.08
3.06
4.71
5.01
3.99
2.16
0.69
0.84
0.78
44.80
41.80
43.20
42.20
37.40
39.00
46.40
52.00
58.00
61.00
59.40
54.20
49.60
-17.80
0.20
-8.20
-2.20
13.60
25.00
23.60
13.00
-3.00
-18.00
-21.40
-7.20
-7.60
17.80
0.20
8.20
2.20
13.60
25.00
23.60
13.00
3.00
18.00
21.40
7.20
7.60
MAD
MAPE
12.37
26%
-17.80
-17.60
-25.80
-28.00
-14.40
10.60
34.20
47.20
44.20
26.20
4.80
-2.40
-10.00
-1.44
-1.42
-2.09
-2.26
-1.16
0.86
2.76
3.82
3.57
2.12
0.39
-0.19
-0.81
46.83
Forecast
Demand
5 Weeks
Moving
Average
Deviati
on
Abs
Deviati
on
WEEK
LAs
Demand
-5
-4
-3
-2
43
40
54
46
45.67
0.33
0.33
-1
35
46.67
-11.67
11.67
32
45.00
-13.00
13.00
24.33
-2.84
43.60
-11.60
11.60
43
37.67
5.33
5.33
19.00
-2.22
41.40
1.60
1.60
3
4
5
54
40
46
36.67
43.00
45.67
17.33
-3.00
0.33
17.33
3.00
0.33
-1.67
-4.67
-4.33
-0.19
-0.55
-0.51
42.00
42.00
40.80
12.00
-2.00
5.20
12.00
2.00
5.20
74
46.67
27.33
27.33
23.00
2.69
43.00
31.00
31.00
40
53.33
-13.33
13.33
9.67
1.13
51.40
-11.40
11.40
35
53.33
-18.33
18.33
-1.01
50.80
-15.80
15.80
45
49.67
-4.67
4.67
-1.56
47.00
-2.00
2.00
7.00
0.73
10
38
40.00
-2.00
2.00
-1.79
48.00
-10.00
10.00
-3.00
-0.31
11
48
39.33
8.67
8.67
-8.67
13.33
15.33
-6.67
11.6
0
10.0
0
2.00
0.00
5.20
36.2
0
24.8
0
9.00
-0.78
46.40
1.60
1.60
-0.15
12
56
43.67
12.33
12.33
5.67
0.66
41.20
14.80
14.80
13
50
47.33
2.67
2.67
8.33
0.97
44.40
5.60
5.60
-1.40
13.4
0
19.0
0
Average
Demand
45.5
MAD
8.56
MAD
9.58
RSFE
TS
0.33
11.33
0.04
RSFE
TS
-1.32
-1.21
-1.04
0.21
0.00
0.54
3.78
2.59
0.94
1.40
1.98
MAPE
19%
MAPE
21%
2. Next consider using a simple exponential smoothing model. In your analysis, test
two alpha values, 0.2 and 0.4. Use the same criteria for evaluating the model as
part in part 1. When using an alpha value of 0.2, assume that the forecast for
week 1 is the past three week average (the average demand for periods -3, -2
and -1). For the model using an alpha of 0.4, assume that the forecast for week 1
is the past five week average.
Answer:
= 0.2 to compute FT in 3 Weeks Moving Average Method
Foreca
st
Deman
d3
Weeks
Movin
g
Averag
e
WEEK
Atlant
as
Dema
nd
-5
-4
-3
45
38
30
-2
58
37.67
-1
37
42.00
33
41.67
45
42.67
37
38.33
38
38.33
55
40.00
30
43.33
18
41.00
58
34.33
47
35.33
10
37
41.00
11
23
47.33
12
55
35.67
13
40
38.33
FT
41.7
3
41.0
0
39.9
3
43.1
3
38.0
7
38.2
7
43.0
0
40.6
7
36.4
0
39.0
7
37.6
7
40.2
0
42.4
7
39.5
3
38.6
7
Devi
atio
n
Abs
Devia
tion
16.2
7
16.27
-4.00
-6.93
1.87
-1.07
-0.27
12.0
0
10.6
7
18.4
0
18.9
3
9.33
-3.20
19.4
7
15.4
7
1.33
4.00
RSFE
16.2
7
12.2
7
TS
Foreca
st
Dema
nd 5
Weeks
Movin
g
Avera
ge
0.57
41.60
1.87
7.20
0.78
39.20
1.07
6.13
0.66
40.60
0.27
5.87
0.63
42.00
12.00
17.8
7
1.93
38.00
10.67
7.20
0.78
41.60
18.40
11.2
0
1.21
41.00
18.93
7.73
0.83
35.60
1.84
39.80
1.49
41.60
0.60
38.00
3.20
19.47
-5.60
RSF
E
TS
5.16
-5.16
-0.56
3.48
-1.68
-0.25
2.16
-3.84
-0.57
2.40
-6.24
-0.93
10.2
0
3.96
0.59
6.96
-3.00
-0.45
13.8
0
16.8
0
-2.51
13.4
4
-3.36
-0.50
4.32
0.96
0.14
2.76
-1.80
-0.27
9.00
10.8
0
-1.61
11.0
4
0.24
0.04
2.40
-2.16
-0.32
1.32
5.33
17.0
7
13.8
7
Abs
Devi
atio
n
1.75
6.93
9.33
FT
Devi
atio
n
15.47
9.87
1.06
36.60
1.33
11.2
0
1.21
44.00
38.1
6
41.5
2
39.1
6
40.4
0
44.8
0
36.9
6
31.8
0
44.5
6
42.6
8
39.7
6
32.0
0
43.9
6
42.4
0
-5.16
3.48
-2.16
-2.40
10.2
0
-6.96
13.8
0
13.4
4
4.32
-2.76
-9.00
11.0
4
-2.40
Avera
ge
Dema
nd
WEEK
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
40.22
Bosto
ns
Dema
nd
Foreca
st
Dema
nd 3
Weeks
Movin
g
Avera
ge
10
11
12
13
Avera
ge
Dema
nd
9.28
MAD
6.70
MAP
E
23%
MAP
E
17%
Devi
ation
Abs
Devia
tion
RSFE
2.13
-2.13
0.27
-2.40
TS
Foreca
st
Dema
nd 5
Weeks
Movin
g
Avera
ge
FT
Devi
atio
n
Abs
Devi
atio
n
RSF
E
TS
62
18
48
40
42.67
35
35.33
26
41.00
35
33.67
41
32.00
40
34.00
46
38.67
48
42.33
55
44.67
8
9
FT
MAD
18
49.67
62
40.33
44
45.00
30
41.33
45
45.33
50
39.67
41.28
42.1
3
35.2
7
38.0
0
33.9
3
33.8
0
35.2
0
40.1
3
43.4
7
46.7
3
43.3
3
44.6
7
44.8
0
39.0
7
45.2
7
41.7
3
-2.13
-0.27
12.00
1.07
7.20
4.80
5.87
4.53
8.27
25.33
17.33
-0.80
-9.07
-0.27
8.27
12.00
1.07
14.40
13.33
0.30
0.34
2.01
1.87
0.86
0.19
7.20
-6.13
4.80
-1.33
5.87
4.53
0.63
4.53
9.07
1.27
8.27
17.33
2.43
25.33
-8.00
1.12
17.33
9.33
1.31
0.80
8.53
1.19
9.07
-0.53
0.27
-0.80
8.27
7.47
0.07
0.11
1.04
40.60
33.40
36.80
35.40
35.40
37.60
42.00
46.00
41.40
45.80
45.40
41.80
39.80
34.7
6
34.0
4
38.4
8
37.2
4
39.6
4
41.7
6
47.2
0
34.8
0
49.6
4
45.0
8
39.2
4
43.0
8
43.8
8
-8.76
0.96
2.52
2.76
6.36
6.24
7.80
16.8
0
12.3
6
-1.08
-9.24
1.92
6.12
8.76
0.96
2.52
2.76
6.36
6.24
7.80
16.8
0
12.3
6
1.08
8.76
7.80
5.28
2.52
3.84
10.0
8
17.8
8
1.08
13.4
4
12.3
6
-1.37
-1.22
-0.83
-0.40
0.60
1.58
2.80
0.17
2.11
1.94
9.24
3.12
0.49
1.92
5.04
0.79
6.12
11.1
6
1.75
MAD
7.15
MAD
6.38
MAP
E
17%
MAP
E
15%
WEEK
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
Chicag
os
Deman
d
Forec
ast
Dema
nd 3
Week
s
Movin
g
Avera
ge
FT
Devi
ation
44
52.00
50.40
-6.40
48
46.00
46.40
1.60
54.67
52.53
34
45.33
43.07
-9.07
22
42.00
38.00
16.00
-4.80
16.00
17.33
55
33.33
37.67
17.33
8.80
48
37.00
39.20
8.80
72
41.67
47.73
24.27
62
58.33
59.07
2.93
26.13
54.13
26.13
21.60
8
28
60.67
9
27
54.00
48.60
21.60
95
39.00
50.20
44.80
11
35
50.00
47.00
12.00
45
52.33
50.87
-5.87
13
47
Avera
ge
Dema
nd
1.60
9.07
12
-6.40
-8.53
10
6.40
8.53
44
RSF
E
TS
FT
Devi
atio
n
Abs
Devi
atio
n
RSFE
TS
3.36
-3.36
-0.30
7.20
10.56
-0.95
15.8
4
26.40
-2.39
9.96
16.44
-1.49
4.44
12.00
-1.08
18.8
4
6.84
0.62
9.48
16.32
1.47
14.2
8
2.04
0.18
15.6
0
13.56
-1.23
28.5
6
15.00
1.36
13.0
8
1.92
0.17
2.64
-0.72
-0.07
0.60
-0.12
-0.01
62
22
72
Abs
Devia
tion
Foreca
st
Dema
nd 5
Weeks
Movin
g
Avera
ge
47.89
58.33
56.07
24.27
2.93
44.80
12.00
13.3
3
22.4
0
38.4
0
21.0
7
12.2
7
12.0
0
14.9
3
11.2
0
32.8
0
12.0
0
0.00
0.45
0.34
0.93
1.57
2.69
1.47
0.86
0.84
1.04
0.78
2.29
0.84
49.60
47.3
6
46.00
41.2
0
48.40
37.8
4
38.40
45.0
4
46.20
43.5
6
53.1
6
52.5
2
51.80
42.2
8
40.60
40.60
53.00
47.40
0.00
-5.87
0.41
9.07
14.9
3
1.04
-9.07
-7.20
15.8
4
9.96
4.44
18.8
4
9.48
14.2
8
15.6
0
28.5
6
13.0
8
49.40
48.0
8
47.6
4
-2.64
46.00
46.4
0
0.60
56.80
5.87
42.6
0
66.4
4
-3.36
MAD
14.29
MAD
11.0
7
MAP
E
30%
MAP
E
23%
Foreca
st
Deman
d3
Weeks
Moving
Averag
e
FT
Deviati
on
Abs
Deviati
on
Forec
ast
Dema
nd 5
Weeks
Movin
g
Avera
ge
WEEK
Dallas
s
Dema
nd
-5
-4
-3
42
35
40
-2
64
39.00
44.00
20.00
20.00
-1
43
46.33
45.67
-2.67
2.67
27
49.00
44.60
-17.60
17.60
42
44.67
44.13
-2.13
2.13
35
37.33
36.87
-1.87
1.87
40
34.67
35.73
4.27
4.27
0.00
0.00
42.20
51
39.00
41.40
9.60
9.60
9.60
1.08
37.40
64
42.00
46.40
17.60
17.60
3.06
39.00
70
51.67
55.33
14.67
14.67
4.71
46.40
65
61.67
62.33
2.67
2.67
5.01
52.00
55
66.33
64.07
-9.07
9.07
3.99
58.00
10
43
63.33
59.27
-16.27
16.27
2.16
61.00
11
38
54.33
51.07
-13.07
13.07
6.13
0.69
59.40
12
47
45.33
45.67
1.33
1.33
7.47
0.84
54.20
13
42
42.67
42.53
-0.53
0.53
6.93
0.78
49.60
Averag
e
Deman
d
46.83
MAD
MAPE
WEEK
LAs
Deman
d
Foreca
st
Deman
d3
Weeks
Movin
g
Averag
e
FT
Devi
atio
n
Devi
ation
Abs
Devia
tion
RSFE
10.68
10.68
-10.68
0.12
0.12
-10.56
-4.92
4.92
-15.48
-1.32
1.32
-16.80
8.16
8.16
-8.64
15.00
15.00
6.36
0.86
14.16
14.16
20.52
2.76
7.80
7.80
28.32
3.82
-1.80
1.80
26.52
3.57
10.80
15.72
2.12
12.84
2.88
0.39
-4.32
4.32
-1.44
-4.56
4.56
-6.00
8.89
MAD
7.42
19%
MAP
E
16%
Abs
Devia
tion
RSFE
RSF
E
20.0
0
17.3
3
0.27
2.40
4.27
27.2
0
41.8
7
44.5
3
35.4
7
19.2
0
TS
TS
FT
TS
2.25
1.95
0.03
0.27
0.48
44.80
41.80
43.20
Foreca
st
Deman
d5
Weeks
Movin
g
Averag
e
37.6
8
41.8
8
39.9
2
41.3
2
42.8
4
49.0
0
55.8
4
57.2
0
56.8
0
53.8
0
50.8
4
51.3
2
46.5
6
FT
10.80
12.84
Devi
atio
n
Abs
Deviati
on
RSFE
1.44
1.42
2.09
2.26
1.16
0.19
0.81
TS
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
43
40
54
46
35
45.67
46.67
45.73
44.33
32
45.00
42.40
43
37.67
38.73
54
36.67
40
0.27
-9.33
10.4
0
0.27
9.33
0.27
-9.07
0.04
-1.21
10.40
-19.47
-2.60
43.60
4.27
4.27
-15.20
-2.03
41.40
40.13
13.8
7
13.87
-1.33
-0.18
42.00
43.00
42.40
-2.40
2.40
-3.73
-0.50
42.00
46
45.67
45.73
0.27
0.27
-3.47
-0.46
40.80
74
46.67
52.13
21.87
18.40
2.46
43.00
40
53.33
50.67
10.67
7.73
1.03
35
53.33
49.67
14.67
-6.93
45
49.67
48.73
-3.73
3.73
10
38
40.00
39.60
-1.60
11
48
39.33
41.07
12
56
43.67
13
50
47.33
Avera
ge
Dema
nd
45.5
38.9
6
-6.96
6.96
-6.96
0.96
0.96
-6.00
-1.04
42.0
4
46.8
0
41.2
0
42.8
8
55.4
0
7.20
7.20
1.20
0.21
-1.20
1.20
0.00
0.00
3.12
3.12
3.12
0.54
18.6
0
18.60
21.72
3.78
51.40
46.8
4
-6.84
6.84
14.88
2.59
-0.93
50.80
44.4
8
-9.48
9.48
5.40
0.94
-10.67
-1.43
47.00
-1.20
1.20
4.20
0.73
1.60
-12.27
-1.64
48.00
-6.00
6.00
-1.80
-0.31
6.93
6.93
-5.33
-0.71
46.40
0.96
0.96
-0.84
-0.15
46.13
9.87
9.87
4.53
0.61
41.20
8.88
8.88
8.04
1.40
47.87
2.13
2.13
6.67
0.89
44.40
3.36
3.36
11.40
1.98
MAD
7.48
MAD
5.75
MAP
E
16%
MAP
E
13%
21.8
7
10.6
7
14.6
7
46.2
0
44.0
0
47.0
4
47.1
2
46.6
4
3. Starbuck is considering simplifying the supply chain for its coffeemaker. Instead
of stocking the coffeemaker in all five distributions centers, it is considering only
supplying it from a single location. Evaluate this option by analyzing how
accurate the forecast would be based on the demand aggregation across all
regions. Use the model that you think is best from your analysis of parts 1 and 2.
Evaluate your new forecast using mean absolute deviation, mean absolute
percent error and the tracking signal.
With moving average method we can compute :
Foreca
st
Deman
d3
Weeks
Movin
g
Averag
e
Deviati
on
Abs
Deviati
on
RSFE
TS
Foreca
st
Dema
nd 5
Weeks
Movin
g
Avera
ge
Deviati
on
Abs
Deviati
on
WEEK
Total
Demand
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
254
153
244
252
198
217.00
216.33
35.00
-18.33
35.00
18.33
35.00
16.67
1.14
0.54
162
231.33
-69.33
69.33
52.67
-1.71
220.20
-58.20
58.20
199
204.00
-5.00
5.00
57.67
-1.87
201.80
-2.80
2.80
189
186.33
2.67
2.67
55.00
-1.78
211.00
-22.00
22.00
213
183.33
29.67
29.67
25.33
-0.82
200.00
13.00
13.00
246
200.33
45.67
45.67
20.33
0.66
192.20
53.80
53.80
288
216.00
72.00
72.00
92.33
3.00
201.80
86.20
86.20
245
249.00
-4.00
4.00
88.33
2.87
227.00
18.00
18.00
204
259.67
-55.67
55.67
32.67
1.06
236.20
-32.20
32.20
236
245.67
-9.67
9.67
23.00
0.75
239.20
-3.20
3.20
10
257
228.33
28.67
28.67
51.67
1.68
243.80
13.20
13.20
11
174
232.33
-58.33
58.33
-6.67
-0.22
246.00
-72.00
72.00
12
248
222.33
25.67
25.67
19.00
0.62
223.20
24.80
24.80
13
229
226.33
2.67
2.67
21.67
0.70
223.80
5.20
5.20
Avera
ge
Dema
nd
221.72
MAD
30.82
MAD
26.97
MAPE
14%
MAPE
12%
RSF
E
58.2
0
61.0
0
83.0
0
70.0
0
16.2
0
70.0
0
88.0
0
55.8
0
52.6
0
65.8
0
-6.20
18.6
0
23.8
0
With exponential smoothing method and moving average method we can compute :

TS
-2.16
-2.26
-3.08
-2.60
-0.60
2.60
3.26
2.07
1.95
2.44
-0.23
0.69
0.88
Forecast
Demand
3 Weeks
Moving
Average
WEEK
Total
Dema
nd
-5
-4
-3
254
153
244
-2
252
217.00
-1
198
216.33
162
231.33
199
204.00
189
186.33
213
183.33
246
200.33
288
216.00
245
249.00
204
259.67
236
245.67
10
257
228.33
11
174
232.33
12
248
222.33
13
229
226.33
Avera
ge
Dema
nd
221.7
2
FT
224.
00
212.
67
217.
47
203.
00
186.
87
189.
27
209.
47
230.
40
248.
20
248.
53
243.
73
234.
07
220.
67
227.
47
226.
87
Devia
tion
28.00
14.67
55.47
-4.00
2.13
23.73
36.53
57.60
-3.20
44.53
-7.73
22.93
46.67
20.53
2.13
Abs
Deviati
on
RSFE
28.00
28.00
14.67
13.33
55.47
4.00
2.13
23.73
42.13
46.13
44.00
20.27
36.53
16.27
57.60
73.87
3.20
70.67
44.53
26.13
7.73
18.40
22.93
41.33
46.67
-5.33
20.53
15.20
2.13
17.33
TS
Foreca
st
Dema
nd 5
Weeks
Movin
g
Avera
ge
FT
Devi
atio
n
Abs
Deviati
on
RSFE
7.69
7.69
76.32
84.01
1.14
0.54
1.71
1.87
1.78
0.82
0.66
3.00
2.87
1.06
0.75
1.68
0.22
0.62
0.70
220.20
201.80
211.00
200.00
192.20
201.80
227.00
236.20
239.20
243.80
246.00
223.20
223.80
154.3
1
122.6
8
127.4
5
129.4
9
129.9
3
144.1
2
137.4
8
159.5
3
146.6
1
155.4
5
166.2
7
142.1
3
135.1
3
7.69
76.32
61.55
83.51
116.0
7
143.8
8
107.5
2
44.47
89.39
101.5
5
7.73
105.8
7
93.87
61.55
83.51
116.07
143.88
107.52
44.47
89.39
101.55
7.73
105.87
93.87
MAD
24.66
MAD
79.95
MAPE
11%
MAP
E
36%
145.5
6
229.0
7
345.1
3
489.0
1
596.5
3
641.0
0
730.3
9
831.9
3
839.6
7
945.5
3
1039.
40
4. What are the advantages and disadvantages of aggregating demand from a

forecasting view? Are there other things that should be considered when going
from multiple DCs to on DC?
Answer:
TS
0.10
1.05
1.82
2.86
4.32
6.12
7.46
8.02
9.14
10.4
1
10.5
0
11.8
3
13.0
0
The advantage is that we can estimate the needs of the supply of products, so
that more efficient use of inventory. While the disadvantage is if the demand is
not in accordance with the fact that estimated by the method of forecasting,
there is an additional cost to be incurred.
Another thing to be considered when going from multiple DCs to on DC is the
delivery time of a DC to another DC. Because with the delivery time, we also
have to take into account the existing risks.

Starbucks

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Originalbeschreibung:

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Starbucks

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Analytics Exercise: Forecasting Supply Chain

With moving average method we can compute :

= 0.2 to compute FT in 3 Weeks Moving Average Method

4. What are the advantages and disadvantages of aggregating demand from a

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen