July 13, 2015

Indian Currency Market A Weekly Perspective

RETAIL RESEARCH

USD/INR

ST Trend of US$

63.359

Down

Target

Reversal

Prev. Close

Supports

Resistances

63.30

64.30

63.63

63.30-63.10

64.07-64.16

03/07

10/07

% chg

63.630
70.767
99.061
1.928
1.112
122.851

63.359
70.688
98.274
1.935
1.115
122.830

-0.43
-0.11
-0.79
0.36
0.27
-0.02

Currencies
Dollar (USD-INR)
Euro (EUR-INR)
Pound (GBP-INR)
Yen (INR JPY)
EUR-USD
USD JPY

Equities
Sensex
Nifty

28092.79 27661.40
8484.90 8360.55

-1.54
-1.47

Source: Bloomberg & SEBI

The week gone by

The Indian Rupee gained last week. W-o-W, the USDINR pair lost 0.43%.

Foreign Markets
The euro advanced across the board on Friday, jumping more than 2 percent against the yen, on optimism Greece
was making progress in efforts to secure funding and stay in the euro zone.
The yen and the Swiss franc, which tend to do well during turmoil in financial markets, both lost ground as demand
for riskier assets also picked up after Chinese shares rebounded.
Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Friday euro zone finance ministers may make a "major decision"
when they hold an emergency session on Saturday to weigh the Greek proposal. Many in the market were
optimistic, although there was a degree of caution about holding large bets going into the weekend.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Also helping risk sentiment were signs Chinese equities may have stabilized after their recent 30 percent fall.
Shanghai shares rallied for a second straight day, helped by emergency steps from the government to halt their
dive.
Gains in the dollar accelerated after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday she expects the Fed to raise
interest rates at some point this year.

Outlook
While a deal on Greek's debt over the weekend would ease some of the uncertainty surrounding the euro, the
problem, though, is that it would expose a fundamental wound for the euro, the bloc's weak economy which
remains in need of the ECB's (European Central Bank) strong policies of rock-bottom interest rates.
Coming to the Indian Rupee, foreign flows will remain a key factor in the near-term for markets. Technically, the
USDINR pair remains in downtrend and could target the 63.3 levels in the coming week.

Upcoming Major Macro Events

Date

Country

Event

Bloomberg
Estimate

30-June-2015

India

IIP Core (YoY Chg)

14-July-2015

India

WPI Inflation (YoY Chg) New Series (Base 04-5)

16-July-2015

USA

17-July-2015

USA

Previous Level

-0.4%

-2.13%

-2.36%

Jobless Claims

282k

297k

Consumer Price Index (CPI - M/M change)

0.3%

0.4%

Top Traded USDINR Currency Options for the previous trading session (10-07-2015)
Option

No of Contracts traded

USDINR Call 64.0 Strike Price

96,111

USDINR Put 63.5 Strike Price

66,884

RBI Reference Rate:

Lst Close (10-07)

Daily % Chg
Weekly % Chg
Monthly % Chg

RETAIL RESEARCH

USD/INR

GBP/INR

EUR/INR

Yen/INR

63.379

97.655

70.433

51.970

-0.20

-0.20

-0.09

-0.63

-0.03

-1.30

0.14

0.93

-0.79

-0.83

-2.37

0.06

The EUR/INR pair (Daily chart) Technical View

The week gone by saw the EURINR pair sliding lower before recovering smartly from a low of 69.32. The previous intermediate
lows of 69.20 were thereby held.
Technical indicators are now giving positive signals as the pair trades above the 13-day SMA. Momentum readings too are rising
and are not yet overbought.
Further upsides for the EURINR pair are likely once the immediate resistances of 71.08 are taken out. Short term trend reversal
levels remain at 69.20.

Analyst: Subash Gangadharan (subash.gangadharan@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building B, Alpha, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opposite Crompton
Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400042, Fax: (022) 30753435
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information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We
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This report has been prepared by the Retail Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or
other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, PCG) of HDFC
Securities Ltd.

RETAIL RESEARCH