Analysis of Earthquake Hazard

in Papua New Guinea

Lawrence Anton
Port Moresby Geophysical Observatory

Outline

Introduction
Tectonics
Seismology
Earthquake hazard
Discussions
Concluding remarks
Recommendations

Top right: aerial view of CBD Port Moresby,

National Capital
Bottom: National Parliament

The aims of the study are to

evaluate (and map) earthquake hazard in PNG at
different scales, utilizing data and improved methods
now available
focusing on specific sites of population density and
sites of important national industrial activity
provide the basis for a much-needed revision of the
PNG Earthquake Loading (Building) Code
update results in previous studies

Global tectonic plate configuration & kinematics

Regional tectonics and related elements

PNG region is situated

Within the collision zone of the India Australia, Pacific and
Eurasian Plates
Left-lateral shearing across New Guinea resulting from highly oblique
collision (Gochioco et al., 2002)

worlds fastest continental shear zone (75-80 mm/yr), relative to northern

Australia (McCaffrey, 1996)
but accounts for only minimum release of seismic moment in the region

Ontong Java Plateau dominating the Pacific Plate front

thick massive oceanic crust

caused break up of Melanesian Arc and reversal of subduction polarity

Convergence is accommodated by thrusts and strikeslip faulting along

frontal Highlands thrust belt; involved in mountain building (crustal
shortening/thickening) spanning the central axis of New Guinea Island

the central collisional belt; 300 km wide, 1300 km long & peaks of over 3
km

Existence of minor plates within the collision zone (Wallace et al.,

2004; this study)

Many more being recognised/confirmed; eg. North Bismarck, New Guinea

Highlands and Woodlark, amongst many others

TECTONICS
Two mountain ranges dominate the region:
Terrains of the Melanesian arc subjected to oblique
collision in early Pliocene; still involved in active
subduction in the Solomon Islands
Highlands (Irian Jaya Fold Belt & Papuan Fold Belt)
formed by two tectonic events
Obduction

of Papuan Ophiolites during Oligocene

resulting in metamorphism of continental margin
sediments
Continental-arc collision during Pliocene causing intracontinental deformation

Tectonic structure of New Guinea (Abers and McCaffrey, 1988; Abers, 1994)

Geological provinces of New Guinea (Davies, 1990)

Geological provinces of SW Pacific region (Audrey-Charles, 1991)

Free-air gravity anomalies of OJP and New Guinea (Mann and Taira, 2004)

GPS data from Tregoning et al. (1998)

Tectonic plates configuration of PNG (Ripper and Letz, 1991; 1993; PMGO)

Seismicity of PNG based on PMGO earthquake catalogue

SEISMOLOGY
Earthquake activity is a manifestation of and
delineate

Plate boundaries all possible types

9 Subduction zones, continental and oceanic convergence
9 Seafloor spreading centres and continental rifting
9 Continental and oceanic transcurrent faulting
Zones of crustal deformation, e.g. due to convergence
Crustal fracture zones
Volcanic centres

Significant earthquakes are frequent, including six

having significant tectonic effects; 1907, 1935, 1941,
1993, 2000, 2002, 2007

There may have been numerous others

Seismicity of the PNG region based on ISC earthquake catalogue

showing regional earthquake distribution
Red circles denote shallow events (0-34 km)
Yellow diamonds and blue triangles denote intermediate depth events (35-299 km)
Green stars denote deep events (>300 km)

Significant earthquakes of PNG

Great Earthquakes (Pacheco and Sykes, 1992; Engdahl et al., 1998 and ISC)
Year Date
Time
Lat
Long
Depth
Ms
Moment
hr:min
S
E
Km
1020Nm
1906 14 Sep
16:04
7.00
149.00
S
7.4
12.70
1935 20 Sep
01:46
3.50
141.75
S
7.9
14.50
1971 14 Jul
06:11
5.50
153.90
53
7.8
12.00
1971 26 Jul
01:23
4.90
153.20
48
7.7
18.00
2000 16 Nov
04:54
3.98
152.17
33
8.2
12.40
2007 01 April
20:39
8.466
157.043 24
7.9

Significant earthquakes with tectonic effects (PMGO)

Year Date Place
Mw
1907 15 Dec
North coast New Guinea
7.3
1935 20 Sept
Torricelli Mtn/N New Guinea
8.0
1941 13 Jan
New Britain
7.0
1970 31 Oct
Adelbert Range
7.0
1993 25 Oct
Eastern New Guinea
7.1
1998 17 Jul
Northern New Guinea
7.1
2000 16 Nov

Southern New Ireland

8.0

2002 08 Sept
2007 01 April

North coast New Guinea

New Georgia Group, SI

7.8
8.1

Mw
.
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.1
8.0
8.1

Effect
subsidence
uplift
horizontal displacement
Slumping - tsunami
vertical displacement
submarine slumping tsunami
5.5m horizontal
displacement
30-40cm uplift tsunami
1 metre uplift

Coastal uplift during Eq of 1 April 07

Earthquake activity
Amongst the most intense in
the world
Frequent magnitude 7 and
above earthquakes
about

2 per year

High stress release;

Low

stress accumulation

However, locations are poor;

poor

seismic network coverage

Earthquakes smaller than
magnitude 4 not located
Locations have huge errors

Active

plate interaction
of rapidly
evolving of Plate
boundaries
Inter-slab and intra-slab
activity
Diverse earthquake
wave propagation path
Poor local seismograph
coverage
9So most earthquakes
are located using
global seismograph
data
9Locations and
depths include very
large errors
Future great eqs are
imminent & of concern
Indicative

Seismic instrumentation
Proper monitoring started in the 1962 by USGS
Local networks of soft and strong motion began about the
same time;

but have currently ceased due to lack of funding commitment

Replacement networks an urgent need;

For public information and early warning

9

tsunami warning including

For hazards mitigation and awareness risk management

For proper hazard assessment for engineering use
For proper identification of source zones as a result of improved
location and magnitude determinations
To improve earthquake catalogs which will benefit local and
regional seismicity and tectonic studies; including hazard
studies

EARTHQUAKE HAZARD

After an understanding of the regional seismicity and

tectonics having gained, the second stage for an earthquake
hazard study is largely concerned with calculation of ground
motion recurrence,
representing the hazard due to shaking by seismic waves.
other earthquake hazards such as liquefaction, surface rupture,
landslides, and tsunami, are treated separately.

Two main models required to compute ground motion

recurrence are a seismotectonic model that specifies the
assumed distribution of earthquake magnitude recurrence of
earthquakes, and a ground motion model that specifies the
expected ground motion from the earthquakes.

Available data
Compiled using databases established based on ISC, USGS,
and sourced from many workers; of

Hypocentres this study

Intensities future
Strong motion future component of the project

Seismicity maps are now possible; therefore,

Identification of seismic source zones made easier

Hazard mapping was attempted in previous years

Proper data and methods not available then

Revise existing seismic hazard maps building code seismic

zone

PNG Earthquake Loading Code

The current PNG Earthquake
(Building) Code does not reflect
current knowledge of the
tectonic structure of PNG
When the review is completed,
proper legislation is called for to
include the revisions.
Rapid national growth requires
urgent legislation to ensure
compliance by town planners
and engineers.

The Code was developed in the 1970s using data from abroad, as PNG didnt have
the data then.
PNG Statutory Instrument No.44 of 1971 (1971), Regulations made under the
Building Ordinance 1971, documented by Papua New Guinea Government
Printer, November, 1971 (plus Amendments).
First revised in 1982 and documented by PNG National Standards Council (1983),
Code of practice for general structural design and design loadings for buildings,
Part 4, Earthquake loadings.
Revisions were not taken onboard

Method
The hazard is represented by uniform probability response
spectra computed using the 4-staged Cornell method
1.

Develop seismotectonic map

2.

Quantification of seismicity

3.

Determine attenuation function

4.

Earthquake hazard, and hazard mapping

Based on the comprehensive PNG earthquake catalogue

The seismotectonic model was developed,
and ground motion recurrence for selected sites computed

After several iterations of the model, earthquake hazard maps

are produced

1. Develop seismotectonic map

Divided the region in to seismotectonic zones based
on:

Existing earthquake catalogue;

9 the

reformat of which is based on ISC, PMGO, USGS

databases

Checked against regional geology, and geophysics,

especially gravity and magnetics,
9 Quaternary faults, topographic and geographic features
9

There must be prior knowledge of the tectonics

Models used influence hazard assessments

Tectonics

Collision zone

Seismotectonics uniform
earthquake distribution

Six layers of the model PNG1

A total of 120 source zones
PNG region is classed as low to moderate resolution; Australia as low

2. Quantification of seismicity
For each source zone (as well as faults future
work)

Based on available data distribution patterns

9 defining

activity in zones, including sources at depth

Determine per zone:

Rate of recurrence of earthquakes varying with

magnitude (magnitude recurrence)
Relative proportion of small to large earthquakes (bvalue)
Maximum earthquake magnitude (Maximum Credible
Earthquake); tectonic settings considered too!

Example of source zone

quantification: New Britain Arc
A typical source zone, the New Britain Arc, is presented as an
example of quantification of a source zone
The earthquakes within the zone were extracted from the
catalogue (using the MapInfo GIS system)
The catalogue had previously been declustered
independent mainshocks distinguished from dependent foreshocks
and aftershocks
the declustered listing was used for earthquake magnitude
recurrence estimates

Figure shows magnitude-time plot for earthquakes in the New Britain Arc zone, and
the catalogue completeness is estimated (considering seismograph coverage, and
linearity of the earthquake magnitude recurrence plot) and represented by the blue
line. The plot shows magnitude against time for the known declustered earthquakes,
with dependent foreshocks and aftershocks removed.

The earthquake magnitude recurrence plot for the New Britain Arc. This is a plot of
Nx, the number of earthquakes per year equal to or larger than magnitude x, against
magnitude x. Nx values indicating the number of earthquakes in entire source region
per year.
An alternative measure of earthquake activity is Ax, which is the number of
earthquakes per year per 100 x 100 km. The Nx values depend on source region
size so can't be compared (large zones have more earthquakes than small zones),
but Ax values can be compared between zones.
The gradient of this plot gives the b-value (a measure of the proportion of small to
large earthquakes) for the zone, which in this case is a very high value of 1.386.

Table lists earthquake magnitude recurrence for the New Britain Arc
zone.
These estimate of earthquake magnitude recurrence for the New
Britain Arc zone of model PNG1 used the earthquake catalogue to
2008-09-30. The zone covers 65,730 km2. The gradient is represented
by beta = 3.19, which corresponds to b-value = 1.39.
Events/year

Events/year

Ret Period

Ret Period

Whole zone

/100x100km

/100x100km (yr)

for zone (years)

No =

7952015.4

Ao =

1209800

0.00

0.000

N1 =

326796

A1 =

49718

0.00

0.000

N2 =

13430

A2 =

2043.21

0.00

0.000

N3 =

551.921

A3 =

83.968

0.01

0.002

N4 =

22.6818

A4 =

3.45075

0.29

0.044

N5 =

0.932132

A5 =

0.141812

7.05

1.073

N6 =

0.0383069

A6 =

0.00582792

171.59

26.105

N7 =

0.00157426

A7 =

0.0002395

4175.30

635.219

This process was repeated for every source zone for the seismotectonic model PNG1.
At this stage the model PNG1 has a total of 120 zones in six depth ranges.

3. Determine attenuation function

Gives earthquake ground motion as a function of magnitude,
distance and other parameters
No one attenuation relationship is possible for the entire
region due to:
Complex geology resulting in varying seismic energy
propagation path
Numerous crustal tectonic blocks
Diverse tectonic structure
Terrains and hilly topography

As local data is not sufficient, relationship of similar tectonic

environments was used
Atkinson and Boore (2003) for subduction zones
Chiou and Youngs (2008) for crustal, intra-plate zones

Attenuation relationships to be developed in next stage of the

project future work

4. Earthquake hazard
Computed spectral ground motion recurrence
(SGMR), integrating probabilities of motion from all
earthquakes in space, magnitude and freq of motion
using commercial software EZ-FRISK (McGuire, 1993)

Computed SGMR at specific sites/points depending

on complexity of seismotectonic and attenuation
models; on bedrock as strong motion data lacking
After several iterations of the model, earthquake
hazard maps will be produced
Repeating the process at many points on a grid
covering the region, for better resolution
Sites of Port Moresby, Lae, Kokopo, Kimbe, Buka,
Madang, Wewak and Honiara have been attempted

1. Port Moresby

Source zone contributions for Port Moresby ground motion.

This plot gives contributions for peak ground acceleration.

PGA
recurrence
for Port
Moresby.
This is for
bedrock
motion,
considering
magnitudes
5.0 and
higher.

Figure shows that the high-frequency peak ground acceleration at Port Moresby is dominated
by hazard contributions from shallow or crustal seismic zones using the attenuation of ChiouYoungs (2008), but higher accelerations may be originating from the intra-slab zones, using the
attenuation function of Atkinson-Boore (2003).

Figure shows
the uniform
probability
response
spectra at Port
Moresby for
return periods
of 475 years,
3,000 years
and 10,000
years, for
bedrock, and
using
magnitudes
from 5.0.

The peak ground acceleration is numerically equal to the response spectral acceleration
at near zero period, for all the left-most points on each of the plots. The spectra for other
return periods can be found by re-calculation, or approximated by interpolation.

Figure shows the deaggregation plot for

1.0 second period motion at a return
period of 975 years for Port Moresby
(corresponding to a relatively low
amplitude of 0.07 g spectral
acceleration).
It shows three main source of hazard,
including moderate magnitude nearby
events, larger events at distances of 200
to 500 km, and some contribution from
great earthquakes at distances of 500
km and beyond (cumulatively plotted at
500 km).
Magnitude 6 earthquakes near Port
Moresby occur infrequently, while the
maximum credible magnitude of 7.3
has been determined, with a near-zero
recurrence rate.

2. Kokopo
Figure shows
source zone
contributions
for Kokopo
ground motion.
This plot gives
contributions
for motion with
spectral
acceleration at
a period of 1.0
seconds.

Zones contributing most to the hazard are those closest to Kokopo and the most
active are the zones of the New Britain Arc and New Britain Trench. These zones
consequently contribute highest to the total hazard, or otherwise is spread amongst
many other zones.

Note that for the

total motion at
the site, the
Atkinson-Boore
attenuation
functions for
subduction
events are each
weighted by 0.5,
while the plot
shows the ground
motion
recurrence for
full weighting for
each.
Figure shows the strength of seismic zones of the subduction zone in the total hazard
using the attenuation function by Atkinson and Boore (2003), especially in the lower
and upper PGA. There was a reasonable contribution from zones non-subducting
lithosphere using the attenuation function by Chiou and Youngs (2008), especially at
the mid-range PGAs.

Figure shows
the response
spectra for
Kokopo.
These
uniform
probability
response
spectra are
for bedrock,
using
magnitudes
from 5.0.

Figure shows response curves for 475, 3,000 and 10,000 year return periods. Spectra for
other return periods can be derived from re-calculation, or approximated by
interpolation.

Figure shows the

deaggregation for all source
zones within 500 km, with
associated hazard
parameters. Two parts are
shown to contribute
earthquakes, from very
local distance (0-25 km)
and that from distance up to
150 km. No seismic zones
is observed to contribute
hazard at Kokopo from
farther distances, even in
adjoining subduction zones
are observed.
Maximum magnitude
earthquake in Kokopo is 7.6
and maximum acceleration
of 0.5g

Figure magnitude-distance deaggregation for motion at Kokopo. Results for bedrock

motion of period 1.0 seconds, considering magnitudes 5.0 and higher.

3. Lae

Figure shows source zone contributions for Lae ground motion. This plot gives contributions for
peak ground acceleration. It shows that the source contributions in Lae are dominated by the Huon
seismotectonic zone within which the city is located, and the neighbouring Schrader and Adelbert
zones, as well as Huon Peninsula at depth.

Figure shows
PGA recurrence
for Lae.
Results for
bedrock motion
and peak
ground
acceleration,
considering
magnitudes 5.0
and higher.

Figure shows that the high-frequency peak ground acceleration at Lae is totally
dominated by contributions from nearby local earthquakes, determined using the
Atkinson-Boore (2003) attenuation function.

Figure shows
response
spectra for
Lae. These
uniform
probability
response
spectra are for
bedrock,
using
magnitudes
from 5.0.

The peak ground acceleration is numerically equal to the response spectral acceleration at near
zero period, for all the left most points on each of the plots.
The uniform probability response spectra for return periods of 475 years, 3000 years and
10,000 years are shown in the Figure. Spectra for other return periods can be found by recalculation.

For Lae, the

deaggregation plot
of 1.0 second for a
return period of
975 years shows
that most of the
contributing
earthquakes are
originating locally,
but the situation
extends gradually
and tapers off to a
distance of about
210 km.
Maximum
acceleration of
0.35g and MCE of
7.1, at a mean
distance of 71 km

Outcomes
The earthquake source zones are quantified using
historical and recent seismicity data, and checked
against geology, geophysics and geodesy (GPS
deformation) during the current tectonic regime
Attenuation functions that were derived using data
from comparable tectonic environments were
selected
No check for consistency with the few existing
PNG strong motion data, and isoseismal data
A component of the next stage of the study
Ground motion recurrence computations were then
performed for selected locations

PGAs for 475 yr Return Period

Sites

PGA

Max Cred Eq

Mean dist (km)

Port Moresby

0.07

7.3

254

Lae*

0.35

7.1

71

Kokopo

0.50

7.6

60

Madang

0.28

7.4

66

Wewak

0.24

6.9

41

Kimbe

0.32

7.6

83

Buka

0.36

7.7

91

Honiara

0.31

7.5

64

CONCLUDING REMARKS
PNG a geologically, seismically and geographically
complex region
Tectonic

structure (debated) redefined and updated

continuously

Data and methods for earthquake hazard determination

are now available; could have better data
It was determined that earthquake hazard is significant
As local strong motion data is not sufficient, that of similar
tectonic setting could have been used data required to
determine attenuation function
There is a need for modern seismic equipment
Replace

the almost non-existing local network

Monitoring, parameter determination and hazard
assessment
Build earthquake catalog for future hazard updates

Expected outcomes in the near

future
Following completion of the earthquake catalogue,
computation of earthquake hazard was undertaken for
representative locations within two years, and is anticipated
that these will lead to revise hazard maps in the following
two years
This work will lead to the development of a set of modern
earthquake hazard maps of the PNG region and the
determination of earthquake response spectra at other
selected sites
The earthquake hazard maps and response spectra would
form the basis for a revision of the PNG Earthquake
(Building) Code

RECOMMENDATIONS
Things proposed to be achieved for the purpose of realising in
full the value of the study. These include:
(1) Determine earthquake hazard at other additional sites, to
improve the resolution and therefore better hazard mapping
(2) Improve on the seismotectonic model developed and hazard
maps covering the whole geographic region
(3) Immediate use of the hazard maps to facilitate the
replacement of the existing earthquake building code
(4) Replace seismic station network to improve data acquisition
required which will in turn improve earthquake hazard
analysis, and be able to sustain maintenance of the network
(5) To improved hazard analysis; delineate active faults
(6) Develop plans for the future updates of the hazard map
(7) Acquire EZ-FRISK or similar tools for immediate use, and for
future earthquake hazard updates

FUTURE WORK
Will include:
Determination of PNG earthquakes (epicenters,
depths, magnitudes and mechanisms) using a local
seismograph network to reduce the uncertainty and
current scatter in epicentre and depth estimates;

and hence allow delineation of active faults.

Update and increase resolution of the

seismotectonic model, particularly further reiteration of the analysis process to include more
sites, and by computing the hazard contributions by
specific active faults rather than assuming uniform
area source zones.

THANKS