Asset Risk Management

DNV Consulting

Prepared by: Sture Angelsen (Sture.Angelsen@dnv.com)

Kim A. Jrgensen (kim.alexander.jorgensen@dnv.com)

Asset Risk Management Services - Vision

Det Norske Veritas Consulting are offering Asset Risk Management Services in
different forms, tailored to client needs. These slides provides guidance to the
content of Asset Risk Management Services within DNV Consulting.

Maximum Revenue at lowest possible

Cost without compromising Safety

Version

10 May 2006

Slide 2

Asset Risk Management Services - Services

Asset Risk Management Services incorporates analysis and optimisation of well systems, sub
sea systems, process plant systems, transportation systems and reliability analysis of safety
systems. Such analysis is in general categorised as Reliability-, Availability- and
Maintainability Analysis (RAM), and is often conducted during early phases of projects to
compare alternative designs, but also during operational phases to aid in decision-making
regarding operational procedures, e.g. maintenance approaches and/or operating strategies.

Our services:

Asset Investment risk assessment and solution screening

Asset Technology and lifecycle economics

Asset Appraisal

Asset Optimisation

Asset Safety System Reliability

Version

10 May 2006

Slide 3

Objectives
Feasibility

Compare
Compare performance
performance of
of
various
various development
development
options
(compare
options (compare
NPV):
NPV):
New
New technology
technology
(subsea
(subsea separation
separation vs.
vs.
multi-phase
multi-phase pumping)
pumping)
Assess
Assess impact
impact of
of new
new
environment
environment on
on asset
asset
performance
performance (Harsh
(Harsh vs.
vs.
Benign
Benign waters)
waters)
Impact
Impact of
of having
having spare
spare
production
wells
production wells

Version

Design

Operations
Optimisation

Define
Define minimum
minimum
availability/reliability
availability/reliability
targets
targets for
for specific
specific
equipment
items
equipment items to
to
meet
meet overall
overall project
project
availability
availability target
target

What
What is
is optimum
optimum
intervention
intervention strategy?
strategy?

Forecasting
Forecasting of
of OPEX
OPEX
production
efficiencies
production efficiencies
for
for input
input into
into project
project
economics
economics

How
How many
many spares
spares should
should II
keep?
keep?

Predict
Predict intervention
intervention
vessel
vessel work
work load
load for
for
input
into
mid/long
input into mid/long term
term
planning
planning

10 May 2006

What
What is
is impact
impact of
of
improving
improving intervention
intervention
response
response time?
time?

What
What will
will be
be the
the impact
impact of
of
ageing
ageing facilities/wells
facilities/wells on
on
achieved
performance
achieved performance

Slide 4

RAM Analysis - Main tasks

Version

1.

Establish the study basis - concept definition

2.

Hierarchical system breakdown

3.

Develop failure model

4.

Develop intervention and repair model

5.

Develop simulation model and calculations

6.

Identify contributors to production unavailability and key

differentiators

7.

Identification of improvements (changes in concepts/design

and/or operating strategies)

10 May 2006

Slide 5

RAM Analyses - Motivation

Cash-flow

Revenue

OPEX

CAPEX

Time

RISKEX

Profit = Max {Revenue - CAPEX - OPEX - RISKEX}

Version

10 May 2006

Slide 6

RAM Analyses - Motivation

OPEX/RISKEX ($)

Rank Risks

Risk Drivers

Ranked
Ranked Risks
Risks from
from RAM
RAM Assessment
Assessment
Version

10 May 2006

Slide 7

Unwanted picture

Expenditure ($)

OPEX/RISKEX ($)

RAM Analyses - Motivation

Version

10 May 2006

Slide 8

Wanted picture

Expenditure ($)

OPEX/RISKEX ($)

RAM Analyses - Motivation

Version

10 May 2006

Slide 9

RAM Analyses - Motivation

Best

COST

RISKEX

OPEX

Cheapest?

CAPEX
Alt 1

Version

Alt 2

Alt 3
10 May 2006

Slide 10

COST($)

RAM Analyses - Motivation

Total Cost
Optimized
OptimizedExpenditure
Expenditure
CAPEX ($)

OPEX/RISKEX ($)
CAPEX ($)
Profit = Revenue - CAPEX - OPEX - RISKEX

Version

10 May 2006

Slide 11

Deliverables

The main objective of the RAM analysis DNV offers, is to be a basis for
decision-making wrt. solutions and measures towards a more profitable
and safe operation of your plants. Possible outcomes of a RAM analysis
are listed below:
-

Reduced downtime and thus increased production

More stable product delivery to clients
Reduced operational- and maintenance costs
Increased safety
Higher confidence towards clients
Contribution to unavailability for the SSL consept
60 MSm3/sd
MEG distribution system
Onshore terminal
Multiphase pipeline (2*30")
Export riser SLOR
Compression platform
Import riser SLOR

0.0 %
start up

Version

start +
3wells

21+3
wells

end
plateau
no comp

start
comp

end
plateau
comp

10 May 2006

Completion, cluster, infield

flowlines and Control System

Slide 12

Reference Projects

LNG transport chain modelling

CRITICAL ISSUE

How many LNG ships and what storage capacities are needed to
ensure LNG production 24/7?

Security of delivery (Reliability)

SOLUTION

Building a discrete event simulation model of the transport chain in

Extend

Including effects of:

- Weather
- Vessel off-hire
- Vessel docking
- Seasonal variations
- Lack of product
- Inability to unload

event

ti

08.02.2005
00:00

Season

CASE
OptimiseO

0 is summer
1 is winter

NoVisibility
StrongWind

count

TimeUSeast

USgulf

Season

StoresContent

Factory

StoresContent
StrongWind
L U #
Loading

Start
StartRoundTrip
Vessel_Init

Jetty1

NoVisibility
JettiesAvailable

JettiesAvailable

USgulf
USeast
SailOut

change
LoadingResource

StoresContent

Jetty2

StrongWind
NoVisibility
JettiesAvailable

Season
Docking&Offhire

Determination of optimal fleet and vessel size

USgulf
USeast
SailHome

a
USeast

Determination of optimal storage capacity onshore

b
SelectDest

Identification of bottlenecks

Ability to test different scenarios regarding speed, fleet size, vessel

size, storage capacity, weather predictions etc

Version

USeast

Season
O

TimeUSgulf

TimeStatistics

F
R
AtlanticWeather

Optimise
Optimiser

VALUE DELIVERED

P
I

USgulf

10 May 2006

Slide 14

Life cycle analysis during concept selection

Hydro Ormen Lange
CRITICAL ISSUE

The Ormen Lange field is the first deepwater discovery

to be developed offshore Norway

located 130 km from the West Coast of Norway at a

depth of about 1000 meters

extremely rough seabed conditions, long tie-back

distance and demanding weather conditions

SOLUTION

DNV developed a production availability and

intervention model to quantitatively assess the financial
consequences associated with equipment failures

VALUE DELIVERED

solutions were ranked with respect to the ability to

meet future sales gas demands and the NPV of
deepwater interventions

enabling the client to find the right balance between

capital expenditures, revenue and operating
expenditures.

Version

10 May 2006

Slide 15

Concept selection Gja

Gaz de France
CRITICAL ISSUES

Make the optimal field development decision for a field with

complex risk and uncertainty picture

Statoil develops the field, but GdF takes over in the production
phase. Gja is GdFs first operation

SOLUTION

Establish an all-inclusive economic model to rank alternative

development concepts

Review of:
-

Technical and economical content of proposed concepts

Relevance and criticality of the identifies parts of the defined concepts
Key project external risks
GdFs decision criteria

Account for costs of failing equipment (RiskEx)

Assess value of investing in flexibility and robustness

NPV FPSO Subsea Compliant Tower

F36: X <=-2233,66
5%

2,5

F36: X <=4084,7
95%
Subsea
M ean=943,2374

FP SO
M ean=-1419,586

VALUE DELIVERED

Risk-based ranking of alternative development concepts

Tool to debottleneck and optimise the selected concept

Reference documentation describing Best Practice uncertainty

assessment to the GdF organisation

Values in 10^ -4

CP T
M ean=1181,808

1,5

0,5

0
-8

-6

-4

-2

Values in Thousands

Version

10 May 2006

Slide 16

Operational cost reduction mature fields

Norsk Hydro Brage
CRITICAL ISSUE

Reduce OPEX without compromising production and

safety

Reduce manning

SOLUTION

Extensive DNV experience in operational cost cutting

Technical operational & maintenance competence

Facilitation of the change process

Statement of the feasibility of the proposed concept

VALUE DELIVERED

Version

Operational cost reduction by 25% per year

10 May 2006

Slide 17

Version

10 May 2006

Slide 18