RPJMN 2015-2019

Setting Urban Transport

in the Mainstream

Prof. Suyono Dikun, PhD

Lokakarya Transportasi Perkotaan Dalam RPJMN
Bappenas-GIZ, Jakarta, 29 January 2015

When population soars it is the time

transport becomes a part of the solution

308

298

Indonesia Population
Milestone

Indonesia Population
Projection 2010-2035
(mil.) Source: BappenasBPS-UNFPA, Oct. 2013

288

278

268

258

248

238

Indonesia population keeps

increasing from time to time
This will bring great and complex
consequences on transport system.
Intercities, interislands, interregions
even intraregion economic
movements will create huge
burdens on the existing transport
system networks
Generated new demand resulted
from economic growth can no
longer be served by the system.
Clearly send the signal of emergency
of Indonesia transport

Year

Population

2010

238.5 mil.

2015

255.5 mil.

2020

271.1 mil.

2025

284.8 mil.

2030

296.4 mil.

2035

305.6 mil.

Population could have reached 350 million in 2045. No big deal. It is not the problem of population. It is the
problem of governments in the past of not being able to disperse the population out of Jawa. Indonesia still have
vast land areas. On national scale, urbanization rate will reach 66,6% in the average of the total population in
2035. This is mainly because our rural economy keeps declining and rural transport is not well developed. This
means more than 200 million people will live in urban and urbanized areas 20 years from now. What is the
future of our rural areas and cities? .
Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

Population imbalances. With only 6% of total land

area, Jawa will still be the home of 55% of total
population (159 mil. in 2025)
Distribution of Population by Regions 2010-2035 (mil.)
Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA, October 2013

Papua
Maluku

18,7
15,4
14,1

17,5
13,9
13,2

Sulawesi

20
16,8
15,1

21,1
18,1
15,9

22
19,3
16,8

22,7
20,4
17,5

159

164

168

Kalimantan

Bali dan Nusa

Tenggara
Jawa

137

145

153

50,9

55,3

59,4

62,9

66

69

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Sumatera

DKI
JAKARTA

Merak

Cikampek

SERANG
Banten

Padalarang

Tegal

BANDUNG
Jawa Barat
Banjar

Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

Bojonegoro
Pekalongan SEMARANG
Gambringan

Prupuk
Jawa Tengah
Purwokerto
Kroya

2015
145
millions

2035
168
millions

Bojonegoro
Cirebon

Bogor

Sukabumi

2010
137
millions

Population
imbalance
is
persistent.
Indonesia population in the next 20-30 years
would still be concentrated in Jawa. It goes
almost unnoticed that the carrying capacity
of Jawa in supporting good quality lifes of its
population has been declining from time to
time. The fertile land had been converted to
non-agriculture land, some of them become
unproductive critical land generating
erosion, landslide, and flood to the rest of
the area, destructing watershed, and
endangering food sustainability. Jawa is also
vulnerable to the shortage of natural and
mineral resources, big flood, drought, and
the declining of raw water deposit.

2020
153
millions

2025
Kutoarjo
Solo
159
DIY
millions
YOGYAKARTA

Bojonegoro

2030
164 Jawa Timur
millions
Kertosono
Madiun

Gundih

SURABAYA
Sidoarjo

Bangil
Malang
Banyuwangi

Blitar
Jember

Projection of Jawa Population 2010-2035

Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA, October 2013

Urbanization is masive, persistent, and its fundamental

problems remain unsolved
In 2025 Jawa population will reach 159
millions, out of which 74.6% will live in
urban areas. This will bring a great
burdens and complexity to transport
system network in Jawa, now already in
oversaturated and overburden stage.
North Jawa corridor had never been and
will always be in unstable condition due
to overloading and other economic
pressures. The current rail system is far
from adequate to serve millions of
passengers. Jawa is strong in its economic
contribution to the national GDP but
weak in its carrying capacity.

What forces triggered the massive movement of people from rural to urban areas? The answers are obvious.
First, is the marginalization of rural economy where agriculture, the biggest sector absorbing workforce so far,
has consistently declined, forcing farmers and peasants to sell their agricultural land and gradually turning them
into landless sporadic workers. When they have spent up their money for consumption purposes and finally
found that rural economy can no longer provide opportunity for them to survive, they invade urban areas as the
last resort to earn money with whatever means they have. Rural transport, believed to be a factor triggering rural
economy has been sidelined from the major transport undertakings.
Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

Regional economic disparity is latent, out of the

mainstream, and nearly untouched
Distribution of GRDP Average in many years
Source: Regional Development in Numbers,
Bappenas, 2012
Regional Growth
2007-2012 (%)
Source: Regonal
100
Development in
Numbers
82,40% Bappenas,
2012
80

10
8
6

4
2
0

58,86%

2007

60

Sumatera
Sulawesi
Papua

40

2008

2009

2010

Jawa Bali
Nusa Tenggara

2011

2012

Kalimantan
Maluku-Malut

23,54%

17,60%

20

Sumatera Jawa Bali

KBI

KTI

Bappenas 2012 data illustrates the facts that economy in several regions grew above the national average of 6.3%. Thus there had been a great
anomaly in the national economy: the eastern Indonesia which is very rich in natural, mineral, and marine resources for many decades
contributes only 18% to the national economy. That a collection of regions that grows positively has no big share to the national GDP. Quick
analysis to address this latent disparity points at the lacks of transort infrastructure as one determinant leading to the anomaly. This tegional
disparity will most likely be sustain in the future unless government decides to change it by means of massive and rapid development of
transport and infrastructure in the regions. This is a political economy without being too technocratic with financial concerns. Regional balancing
must be done through the development of transport connectivity both in national and local levels, balancing of urban and rural development.
Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

National Transport Policy

Urban Transport has to be Revitalised
Enhance the
Roles of Urban
Roads

Urban
Transport
Industry
Transport
System
Management

Develop BRT
and or MRT

Audit &
Stock Taking

Revitalization
of Urban
Transport

Integration of
Transport
Institutions

While our world is now in the process of shrinking and reshaping due to the transport, information, and telecommunication
technology; our big cities, paradoxically, are enlarging, and overcrowding, in such a way that even the same technology is
not yet able to overcome time and distance barriers. Urban areas are powerful economic entities; urban economy
contributes a large part of our GDP. But ironically, not only that people movements and living are increasingly difficult to
undertake, Indonesias big and medium cities are now in the process of rapid decaying due mainly to massive urbanization
and congestion that create urban poverty and inefficient, abusive, and rather primitive urban public transport systems.
(sd060697). Indonesia is in urgent need to revitalize its urban transport.
Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

Magnitude of transport investment needed for 20152019 (IDR Trillions). Bottom-up, sector approach
Calculation on the real needs of
investment to fulfill all the
magnitudes covered by sector
master plans, blue prints, other
planning documents, and new
initiatives come up with a higher
figures. Investment needed for
sea transport and ports
development takes into account
the consequences of establishing
a maritime axis of the new
government, including sea
tollway, and rural transport.

Source: Consultant estimate based on several planning documents already officials

such as RIPNAS, RIPN, Blue Print Inland Waterways, Airport System, GIZs Urban
Transport Study, and draft of RENSTRA.
Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

With narrow fiscal space in the APBN,

there is a need for an innovative financing

INNOVATIVE/CREATIVE
FINANCING

Domestic Capital
Market
Off-Budget

APBN
On-Budget
APBN 2,5%
to 5% PDB
PDF/
VGF

PMN
Hibah

Obligasi
/SUN
Infrastruktur

Obligasi
/Sukuk
Infrastruktur

Performance
Based
Annuity
Scheme
PBAS

Available
Direct
Payment

BUMN
Infrastruktur

Obligasi
Syariah/
Sukuk

Perbankan

Dana
Pensiun

Off-Budget
Private Financing

Dana
Asuransi

Pasar
Modal
Reksadana

KPS/
PPP

Bank
Infrastruktur

Conventional KPS

Asset
Backed
Securities

Aliansi
Strategis
KPS

SMI/IIGF
/PIP

Swasta
Murni/
PFI

Unsolicited
Fasilitas
Khusus

Availale
Indirect
Payment

Innovative financing is imperative to fill the large gap not covered by government invetsment and other public sector
expenditures.This innovative financing could be derived from both state budget (APBN, on-budget) and off-budget.

Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

We are now in the era of automobile & motorcycle blight

demand for urban roads are endless

Urban
Toll
Roads

Mass
Rapid
Transit

Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

The dialogue started with a

statement, saying that the
problem of urban congestion
has become so great that many
communities are coming to the
conclusion that there could
never be sufficient highway and
parking capacity to permit the
movement of all people in
private cars. The opinion was
frequently expressed that cities
were suffering from "automoble
blight"; that if the automobile
were banned from downtown
areas and satisfactory mass
transportation provided instead,
congestion would be relieved
and greater freedom of
movement would assure
economic survival for the city

Preserve mass transportation

or stagnate
The argument went on
by urging that the cities
just cannot resign
themselves to
automobiles and let
mass transportation
slide to ruin and
extinction. They must
preserve mass
transportation or
stagnate. Downtown is
doomed to die unless
cities stress movement
of people rather than
movement of vehicles.

Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

10

Motorized vehicles is the only relief

from congestion?

Road
again?

Why not
MRT?
Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

while congestion originally

provided the excuse for the
subway, the subway has
now become the further
excuse for congestion. It
was further argued that the
automobile, far from being a
cause of urban congestion,
has in fact made possible a
necessary deconcentration
of population through the
decentralization of urban
living and working. It can be
argued that the only relief
from congestion has been
possible because of the
motorized vehicles.

11

City is a tremendous reservoir of traffic.....

If mass transportation is not the answer, what of the possibilities of

modern highways to relieve the city of the congestion that inadequate
transportation once made necessary?
Critics insist that elaborate urban expressways are futile because of the
tremendous reservoir of traffic waiting to absorb any new street capacity.
Urban expressways and parking facilities not only will not solve the
problem of congestion but will actually make it worse.
Those who try to accommodate the private automobiles "is doomed to
inevitable failure; the better they do their job the greater will be their
failure".
Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

12

Neither urban expressways nor MRT

can solve the problems
Then come the balancing argument of
demand side management that
seemed convincing; that neither
urban toll roads nor mass rapid
transportation nor any other
mechanical contrivance can solve the
problems of massive urban congestion.

As a solution of the traffic problem

these devices are pure deception.
Putting the emphasis on supplying
transportation facilities rather than
controlling the demand serves only to
aggravate congestion. As long as
nothing is done fundamentally to
rehabilitate the cities themselves, the
quicker will people forsake them and
the greater the problems for those left
behind to cope with
Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

?
13

Both urban tolls and MRT

are guilty
The balancing argument continued:
We have the assurance, therefore,
that the problem of congestion in
urban areas has been precipitated by
the automobile;

Guilty

that the automobile, on the contrary,

has been our escape from congestion;

that the automobile and mass

transportation are both guilty of
promoting congestion;
and finally that neither is the primary
culprit, but rather a host of other
factors that have resulted in the
successful attempt to crowd too many
people and too much economic activity
into too little space.

Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

Guilty

14

Replanning and Rebuilding the Cities?

Cities thus face the difficult task of

arriving at decisions that will
determine to a major degree their
physical and financial future.
Should they emphasize expressways
and parking facilities to accommodate
automobile use, or modernize mass
transport facilities in the hope of
restoring lost patronage and reducing
the number of vehicles entering the
city?
Or will solutions depend instead on
the extensive replanning and
rebuilding of the cities?

Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019

Replanning
&
rebuilding
the City

15