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This Week at the ISN

Our Weekly Content Roundup

31 August 4 September 2015

JUMP TO Editorial Plan | Security Watch | Blog | Video

// Security Watch

This week, our hard power-centered Security Watch (SW) series focuses on the increasingly vulnerable INF Treaty; the
impact of Morocco's current counterterrorism strategy on the Western Sahara; the dangers of offshore balancing; the role
of operational partnerships in UN peacekeeping; and the role of human domain mapping in 21st century warfare. Then, in
our second, more wide-ranging SW series, we look at how authoritarian regimes establish their legitimacy; whether the
recent migration flows to Europe are 'the new normal'; what internal political limitations are propelling North Korea's latest
round of 'bad boy' behavior; why no-fly zones or "IS-free zones" will work in Syria; and why Venezuela is indeed an
"unnatural disaster.

A Looming Crisis of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty: Sources and Consequences
31 August 2015

Did Russia violate the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF) by recently testing a new ground-launched cruise
missile (GLCM)? Yury Fedorov believes so. He also thinks it spells bad news for the INF, the strategic rim stretching from
the Baltic to the Black Seas, and NATO's nuclear planning. More

How Do Non-Democratic Regimes Claim Legitimacy?

31 August 2015

Christian von Soest and Julia Grauvogel believe we need a better sense of how authoritarian regimes manipulate the
concept of legitimacy to secure their rule. One option is to use the Regime Legitimation Expert Survey (RLES) and then
apply it to the non-democratic regimes that existed in the post-Soviet space from 1991-2010. More

Morocco's Counterterrorism Strategy: Implications for Western Sahara

1 September 2015

Morocco's latest counterterrorism strategy is designed to prevent extremists who've been trained abroad from re-entering
the country. According to Erica Vsquez, the strategy is flawed -- i.e., it's militarizing Morocco's national security &
compromising the safety of those who live in the Western Sahara. More

Asylum Flows to the EU: Blip or Norm?

1 September 2015

What problems are EU members now facing from asylum seekers, particularly those from Syria, Eritrea, Afghanistan and
the Western Balkans? What diverging paths are the asylum seekers taking to Europe? And finally, does the recent spike
in migration represent 'a new normal'? Here are Roderick Parkes' answers to these painful questions.
More

Retrenchment Chic: The Dangers of Offshore Balancing

2 September 2015

Should America pursue a minimalist foreign policy that's often described as offshore balancing? Not according to Hal
Brands. Wanting to retrench the US' force posture and alliance commitments is based on questionable 'less-is-more' logic.
After all, how does reduced engagement magically lead to greater security and influence? More

Tension Highlights North Korea's Limitations

2 September 2015

According to Shim Jae Hoon, North Korea's recent and 'blood-curdling' threats against Seoul underscore the country's
weaknesses. Indeed, shifting global ties have made Pyongyang's all-to-familiar strong-arm tactics increasingly puerile,
ineffective and hollow. More

Lessons Learned from Operational Partnerships in UN Peacekeeping

3 September 2015

Why "No-fly zones" or "IS-free zones" Are Not a Solution in Syria

3 September 2015

Why does Hrair Balian think no-fly zones in Syria are a bad idea? As he sees it, they'll only precipitate additional fighting,
ensure the partition of the country into ungovernable fiefdoms, and further harm civilians. Indeed what's really needed are
macroscopic solutions, including accommodating the interests of Syria's 'friends'. More

Human Domain Mapping in 21st Century Warfare

4 September 2015

The terrain of 21st century warfare is both geographical and human. According to Derek Raymond, that means today's
militaries must map out a foe's social dynamics, including his resistance networks, competing factions, leadership clusters,
and other aspects of 'human topography'. More

Venezuela: Unnatural Disaster

4 September 2015

2) major shortages of essential foods, medicines and other basic goods; and 3) diminished health services. More
Is Venezuela heading for a humanitarian disaster of regional-level proportions? That's what our partners at the
International Crisis Group fear. At present, the country's report card is indeed grim, especially in terms of 1) lost incomes;

// Blog
Towards a More Robust ANZUS Alliance
31 August 2015

Yes, says Benjamin Schreer, it's time to make the ANZUS Alliance more institutionally robust and operationally effective,
particularly if it hopes to weather the challenges being raised by China. Among other things, that means establishing a
mutual understanding of what constitute the 'red lines' of Chinese behavior. More

Airpower May Not Win Wars, but It Sure Doesn't Lose Them
1 September 2015

Mike Pietrucha and Jeremy Renken have no doubts. Ground-centric approaches have failed to achieve US military
objectives time and time again. That's why it's time to funnel more resources into American airpower, where they will do
the most good and provide the widest range of options. More

Russia's Dual Assault on the Non-Proliferation Regime

2 September 2015

Is the Ukraine crisis just about lofty European values, unresolved humanitarian ills, or abstract international law? As
Andreas Umland sees it, Russia's meddling in Ukraine is also an attack on the world's nuclear nonproliferation regime.
And what's worse, the West and China are indirectly complicit in the assault. More

American Commandos Use Niger for Training and More

3 September 2015

According to Joseph Trevithick, Niger is becoming an important hub for US counter-extremism activities in North and West
Africa. The "temporary" but expanding efforts include drone operations, prepositioning supplies near Boko Haram
sanctuaries, and conducting commando training for neighboring states. More

Historical Memory and Its Impact on Sino-Japanese Relations

4 September 2015

As Julia Lau sees it, China's September 3rd commemoration of the end of World War II was an ideologically-tainted affair.
To cite just two examples, its massive military parade was designed to send a clear message to Japan, while its familiar
emphasis on past humiliations sought to intensify the nationalism of Chinese youth. More

// Video

Terror Gone Viral: The Rise of Radicalism and America's Response

In today's video, Michael McCoul first explains why there has been an apparent surge in Islamist terrorist activity in the US
and how it is altering the country's security landscape. He's then joined by three experts who provide added insights on
the state of US homeland security, the country's counterterrorism programs, etc. More

The Ramifications of Water Scarcity in Central Asia

In today's video, Stratfor's Lauren Goodrich and Rebecca Keller discuss how water scarcity, when mixed with other
factors, could lead to conflict and unrest in Central Asia.
More

Radical Islam in Russia: Local and Global Dimensions

In this video, the Gaidar Institute's Irina Starodubrovskaya focuses on the rise of radical Islam in Russia's North Caucasus
region and unpacks two myths about its causes and relationship to terrorism. More

// Multimedia Content
Here is a selection of this week's additions to the ISN Digital
Library:

Publications More
// The Cost of US Nuclear Forces More
// Conflict and Extremist-Related Sexual Violence: An International Security Threat More
// An Unnoticed Crisis: The End of History for Nuclear Arms Control? More

Videos More
// Seeking Security: Georgia Between Russia and ISIS
More
/A
/ Web of Harms: Serious and Organised Crime and its Impact on Australian InterestsMore
// Chemical Safety and Security: TSCA Legislation and Terrorist Attacks More

Audio / Podcasts More

// Peter Verghese on Australia in the World
More
// Aid Dependence in Cambodia: How Foreign Assistance Undermines Democracy
More
// What's Wrong with China's Economy (Part 2)More

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